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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 29th of May 2012
 
Morning
Africa

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

Bharat Thakrar was a Super Guest at Mindspeak.

1. #Mindspeak TrendsMap
http://p.twimg.com/AtzqrQzCMAMCRD9.png

2. Thanks for the Chart to @EOmbok @BloombergNow @BharatThakrar
ScanGroup Annual Return since 2006 27.42% #Mindspeak
http://www.twitpic.com/9pemu1

3. Follow Your Passion #Mindspeak @BharatThakrar Scangroup Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9pef7l

4. @BharatThakrar ScanGroup Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9pehu0

Home Thoughts

5. It was a Pleasure catching up with Tim Carstens CEO Base Resources
http://www.twitpic.com/9q75fh

6. Price Forecasts Zircon Rutile Ilmenite Base Resources Tim Carstens
#Kwale Mineral Sands Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9q9cwq

And as I waited for Dinner I met Lord Monson and I expressed My
Condolences. No Father should have to go through what he is going
through.

We are all African color is superficial Dr.Leakey
http://j.mp/KkowVH

"If you get to the stage where you can persuade people on the
evidence, that it's solid, that we are all African, that color is
superficial, that stages of development of culture are all
interactive," Leakey said, "then I think we have a chance of a world
that will respond better to global challenges."

"If you look back, the thing that strikes you, if you've got any
sensitivity, is that extinction is the most common phenomena," Leakey
said. "Extinction is always driven by environmental change.
Environmental change is always driven by climate change. Man
accelerated, if not created, planet change phenomena; I think we have
to recognize that the future is by no means a very rosy one."

Any hope for mankind's future, he insists, rests on accepting existing
scientific evidence of its past.

"If we're spreading out across the world from centers like Europe and
America that evolution is nonsense and science is nonsense, how do you
combat new pathogens, how do you combat new strains of disease that
are evolving in the environment?" he asked.

"If you don't like the word evolution, I don't care what you call it,
but life has changed. You can lay out all the fossils that have been
collected and establish lineages that even a fool could work up. So
the question is why, how does this happen?"

7. Dr Louis S B Leakey
http://j.mp/KkoYDf

read more



ANNALS OF NATIONAL SECURITY The Redirection Seymour M. Hersh MARCH 5, 2007
Law & Politics

But, from the Administration’s perspective, the most profound—and
unintended—strategic consequence of the Iraq war is the empowerment of
Iran.

Nasr went on, “The Saudis have considerable financial means, and have
deep relations with the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis”—Sunni
extremists who view Shiites as apostates. “The last time Iran was a
threat, the Saudis were able to mobilize the worst kinds of Islamic
radicals. Once you get them out of the box, you can’t put them back.”

Jumblatt then told me that he had met with Vice-President Cheney in
Washington last fall to discuss, among other issues, the possibility
of undermining Assad. He and his colleagues advised Cheney that, if
the United States does try to move against Syria, members of the
Syrian Muslim Brotherhood would be “the ones to talk to,” Jumblatt
said.

Nasrallah accused the Bush Administration of working with Israel to
deliberately instigate fitna, an Arabic word that is used to mean
“insurrection and fragmentation within Islam.”

Nasrallah said he believed that America also wanted to bring about the
partition of Lebanon and of Syria. In Syria, he said, the result would
be to push the country “into chaos and internal battles like in Iraq.”
In Lebanon, “There will be a Sunni state, an Alawi state, a Christian
state, and a Druze state.” But, he said, “I do not know if there will
be a Shiite state.”

He said that Congress was not being briefed on the full extent of the
U.S.-Saudi operations. And, he said, “The C.I.A. is asking, ‘What’s
going on?’ They’re concerned, because they think it’s amateur hour.”

read more


Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2525  It has lost 5.5 percent this month, set for the biggest
drop since September.
Dollar Index 82.29
Japan Yen 79.48
Swiss Franc 0.9596
Pound 1.5669
Aussie 0.9832
India Rupee 55.375
South Korea Won 1184.80
Brazil Real  1.9846
Egypt Pound 6.0332
South Africa Rand 8.3464

Euro versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 1.2525 Last
http://j.mp/bQ9veD

The U.S. currency appreciated 2.06 percent last week to 1.2517 per
euro in New York after touching 1.2496, the strongest since July 2010.

The extra yield investors demand to hold Spain’s 10-year bonds instead
of similar-maturity German notes soared to 5.12 percentage points
yesterday, the most since 1995, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.
Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s credit rating on April 26 to BBB+ from
A, saying there is an increasing likelihood the government will need
to provide further fiscal support to the banking sector.

Conclusions

1.1760 is My Objective.

Dollar Index 1 Year Chart INO 82.29 Last
http://j.mp/eBOSI9

From last year’s low on July 27, the greenback has risen against all
16 of its major peers. Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s Dollar Index
surged 12 percent, higher now than when the Fed began creating dollars
to buy bonds under its extraordinary stimulus measures at the end of
2008.The U.S. is one of only five major economies with credit-default
swaps on their debt trading at less than 100 basis points.

The five economies with default swaps trading at less than 100 basis
points have a combined $14 trillion in debt, with the U.S. accounting
for 75 percent, according to CMA data compiled by Bloomberg. A year
ago, when there were eight nations, the total was $24 trillion, with
America making up 38 percent.

The greenback’s share of global foreign-exchange reserves climbed in
the last three-months of 2011 to 62.1 percent, the highest since June
2010, while holdings of euros fell to the lowest since September 2006
at 25 percent, according to the latest quarterly data from the
International Monetary Fund.

read more



Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities

Crude Oil 1 Year Chart INO 91.13 Last
http://j.mp/KEEcnK

The price is down 7.8 percent this year. There was no floor trading in
New York Monday because of the Memorial Day holiday.

Gold 1 Year Chart INO 1574.4 Last
http://j.mp/zNUcY6

read more



Zanzibar Islamists burn churches, riot - police Reuters
Africa

DAR ES SALAAM, May 27 (Reuters) - Hundreds of supporters of a
separatist Islamist group set fire to two churches and clashed with
police during protests in Zanzibar over the weekend against the arrest
of senior members of the movement, police and witnesses said.

Police accused the Uamsho (Awakening) group of ordering its supporters
on to the streets - but the movement's leadership denied having any
part in the unrest.

Clashes broke out in the historic commercial and tourism centre of
Stone Town on Saturday night and continued until Sunday afternoon,
witnesses told Reuters.

The reports of attacks on churches will raise fears of an escalation
in religious tensions in the predominantly Muslim island ruled by a
semi-autonomous secular government. Several bars were attacked last
year.

Shops remained closed and people stayed in their homes on Sunday as
riot police patrolled the streets of Stone Town, witnesses said.

"There is a lot of tension, people are hiding in their houses. All the
streets are empty, it's the only the police who are out there,"
resident Mai Zuberi told Reuters by phone.

"There were clashes all night on Saturday and the violence continued
until noon today. All the roads were blocked in the Stone Town area,"
Zuberi added.

Police said they had arrested 30 members of Uamsho - a Swahili acronym
of its full name the Association for Islamic Mobilisation and
Propagation. Uamsho has called for a referendum on Zanzibar's exit
from its union with mainland Tanzania.

"We will continue to search for more leaders of the Uamsho group,
which was responsible for inciting these riots," Zanzibar Police
Commissioner Mussa Ali Mussa said in a statement on Sunday.

"One church was extensively burnt by the protesters, and the second
was partially burnt and the protesters were prevented from completely
destroying it," he told Reuters by phone separately.

The group dismissed the accusations. "The Uamsho association ... is
not involved in any acts of breach of peace. We would like to urge all
Muslims and Zanzibaris to continue to maintain peace and tranquillity
in the country," it said in a statement.

The Indian Ocean archipelago of about 1 million people merged with
mainland Tanganyika in 1964 to form the modern Tanzania, but Zanzibar
retains its own president and parliament.

Tanzania, which has enjoyed relative stability in a volatile region,
has pledged to have a new constitution in place by 2014, with the
union expected to be one of the major issues of debate.

Analysts said the Uamsho group has been gaining popularity following
the disenchantment of supporters of Zanzibar's main opposition Civic
United Front (CUF) party after its decision to form a government of
national unity with the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party.

"We should never allow a few disgruntled people to plunge us into
chaos over religion so as to achieve their own political goals,"
mainland Tanzania opposition lawmaker Zitto Kabwe said in a statement.

Conclusions

This Secession Risk is actually spiking up and Down the Swahili Coast.
MRC refers.

 Zanzibar
http://j.mp/M00BNW

 A Norinco 38mm anti-riot pistol in his hand Zanzibar Riot Police
http://j.mp/JqzmFL


It is an important question, because Africa –  as fans of the
Gall-Peters Projection undoubtedly know – is bigger than we realize
(see map).
http://j.mp/KeNN3W

read more




Blast rocks Kenyan capital, more than 30 hurt Reuters
Africa

NAIROBI (Reuters) - An explosion tore through a shopping complex in
Nairobi's business district during Monday's lunch hour, wounding more
than 30 people, and police said they were investigating whether it was
a bomb attack.

Police spokesman Eric Kiraithe said anti-terrorism police were combing
the blast site in the city centre for clues, appearing to row back on
an earlier suggestion by the police commissioner that a massive
electrical fault might be to blame.

"The investigating team is exploring the possibility that the blast
was caused by criminals using an improvised explosive device,"
Kiraithe said in a statement.

Two shopkeepers told Reuters independently that they saw a man drop a
bag inside the trading centre moments before the blast.

"He came into the shop twice, looking at T-shirts. He said he didn't
have money so he left. Then he came back," said Irene Wachira. "(He
was) three shops away from where I was. He left a bag and a few
moments later we had an explosion. The roof caved in and debris
started falling on us," Wachira said.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga said Kenyans would not be cowed by "terrorists".

A spokesman for Kenya Power, the country's sole electricity
distributor, said initial investigations had ruled out any electrical
malfunction.

Outside Nairobi's Jamia mosque, one Somali refugee who identified
herself as Aisha said she feared a backlash if al Shabaab or its
sympathisers were behind the explosion.

"It's bad because Kenyans may get angrier now."

read more


Java coffee chain sells majority stake to US equity firm Business Daily
Food, Climate & Agriculture

Managing director of Emerging Capital Partners (ECP), Alex-Handrah
Aimé, said in an interview with the Business Daily that the new
capital injection will be used to finance the coffee chain’s local and
regional expansion.

She declined, however, to disclose the transaction price.

Java’s managing director, Kevin Ashley, said the business has recorded
an annual growth of between 30 per cent and 40 per cent in the past
five years, with turnover touching Sh1 billion in the year ended June
2011.

“East Africa is a diverse economy, with the middle class mainly
pushing its growth and they have needs that have yet to be met,” said
Ms Aimé.

Being a private company, Java is not obligated to publish its
financial statements.

ECP already has local presence, having invested Sh2 billion in
telecommunications firm, Wananchi Group, and the civil engineering and
construction company, Spencon.

From a one coffee shop in Adams Arcade 13 years ago, Java House has
grown to be one of the leading coffee shops in the country with 13
branches, the most recent opening its doors last week.

It was founded by Mr Ashley and John Wagner, both American citizens.
It has also opened three planet Yoghurt outlets, which mainly sell
yoghurt.

read more


ScanGroup share Price Data here +26.506% 2012
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           52.50
Total Shares Issued:          284790000.00
Market Capitalization:        14,951,475,000
EPS:             2.55
PE:                 20.588
   
Swot Analysis FY 2011 versus FY 2010
Billings 11.763664b versus 11.363839b +3.518%
Revenues 3.597260b versus 2.345554b +53.365%
Operating Expenses 2.517262b versus 1.685377b +49.358%
Investment Income and Exchange Gain 0.200102b versus 0.178219b
Profit Before Taxation 1.280100b versus 0.838396b +52.6844%
Profit After Tax 0.911116b versus 0.640585b +42.231%
EPS 2.55 versus 2.11 +20.853%
2011 Results reflect the FY Numbers of Ogilvy Subsidiaries acquired in
October 2010
Final Dividend of 0.70 a share

Conclusions

Scangroup is a WPP.L look alike in that it is a Consolidator. WPP are
the largest shareholder on the Register. ScanGroup has delivered a
solid Set of Results. Advertising Spend in SSA remains a Rising Tide
and ScanGroup are in Pole Position to surf that rising Tide.

Advertising spending in Kenya grew 33 percent last year to 65.4
billion shillings ($769 million) Businessweek
http://j.mp/KP9kxD

read more


Ngamia-1 Drilling Update via @TullowOilPLC
Minerals, Oil & Energy

25 May 2012 – Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) this morning hosted a meeting
with certain investors in Nairobi.  During the course of this meeting
it was inadvertently indicated that the Ngamia-1 well was drilling
into the primary target and that initial results appeared to indicate
that the well had intersected further oil bearing sands.

The Company wishes to clarify that the Ngamia-1 well has encountered
oil and gas shows over a gross interval of 140 metres from a depth of
1,800 metres to 1,940 metres. The reservoirs are similar to those
previously encountered at a shallower depth. The well will continue to
be drilled to a total depth of 2,700 metres and then logged and
sampled. This is expected to take a further three weeks to complete.

Conclusions

Turkana Oil Find : Kenya Must Get It Right From The Start The Star 2nd
April 2012
http://j.mp/H9cuPr

Horn of Africa region has Huge Potential 19th March 2012 The Star
http://j.mp/xZADgP

I started my introduction with Vinod Khosla’s quote:

‘’The future is not seen in the rear view mirror.’’

The World is now flat as a pancake and there will surely come a day
when the Horn of Africa becomes a hot investment destination.

Hunting Elephants In East Africa's Rift Basins UBS Report
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcfrbs/docs/UBS-March-2012.pdf

read more






 
 
N.S.E Today

The Shilling retreated to trade at 85.85 Last which is a 2012 Low.
Clearly yesterdays Explosion in the CBD was Shilling negative. The
Concern is whether the Al Shabab Asymettric Response [if it is
authored by them] is now increasing in its Intensity and a Sense that
the Authorities have been caught unawares. This Sense was accentuated
by the Different Interpretations given by the Police, The Prime
Minister and Kenya Power all of which competed for Attention on the
Global 24 News Feed. Notwithstanding the Noise, The Shilling is
actually only -0.6% in 2012 which is no mean Feat in the context of a
simply rampant US Dollar on the Global Foreign Exchanges.
The NSE20 retreated 9.11 Points to close at 3627.64. The NSE20 rallied
15.964% From the Start of the Year through 21st May this Year to close
at 3708.88 on that Date. That was a 10 Month Closing High. The NSE20
has retraced 2.1904% off that 10 Month Closing High. I expect
Pullbacks to remain shallow.
The Nairobi All Share eased 0,.20 points to close at 78.20.
Market Cap was 1.001116 Trillion versus 1.003683 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was lackadaisical at 166.821m versus 386.537m,
signalling Supply is thin, which is constructive.
Uchumi snapped a 2 Session Limit Down losing Streak to close 7.74% higher.
BAT traded a Fresh All Time Intra Day High.
Unga rallied 4.118% and has closed at a 47 Month High and is +40.555% in 2012.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Rea Vipingo firmed 1.81% to close at 16.85 and traded 2,100 shares.
Rea Vipingo released Strong H1 Numbers.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume 2,879,700
total turnover     9,364,780
closing PRICE 3.25 Unchanged    
high price     3.30
low price     3.25
last price     3.30

Conclusions

Safaricom traded 5th. Safaricom closed unchanged at 3.25 and traded
2.879m shares. Safaricom has corrected 7.14285% off a 2012 Closing
High of 3.50, which Level was struck on May 7th then on May 17th
through May 21st. I think the Drawdown was undeserved and a
Consequence [This is speculative] of a Fumbled and large size Order.
There was Buy Side Demand for 300% of the Volume traded during the
Session, at the Finish Line.

Uchumi rebounded 7.74% to close at 16.70 and was trading at Limit UP
of 17.05 +10% for most of the Session. Uchumi traded 532,600 shares
and Buy Side Demand outweighed the Supply Side by a Factor of 95
versus 20. Uchumi had closed Limit Down for 2 Consecutive Sessions
before today. Uchumi remains +116.88% in 2012 and is the Best
Performer at the Nairobi Securities Exchange in 2012. Uchumi had
rallied 151.298% Start of the Year through May 23rd. Then Uchumi
corrected 19.89% May 23rd through yesterday before the Rebound today.
The Rally to a 6+ Year High was triggered by Talk of a Dividend, The
previously egregious Valuation when compared with South African
Retailers for example and a sense that The Balance Sheet was now
optimised and poised for Growth.

Uchumi share Price Data Price and Volume Graphs here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTM%3D

TPS Serena bounced 3.529% to close at 44.00 and traded just 1,300 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank traded 3rd. KCB closed unchanged at 22.75 and
the Weighted Average was 22.99 signalling the Price Bias remains
higher. KCB traded a 22.75-23.00 range and 1.093m shares. Buy Side
Demand was 500% more than the entire Volume traded during the Session.
Kenya Commercial Bank is +45.99% in 2012 [inclusive of the Final
Dividend].

Equity Bank was the most actively traded share today. Equity Bank
eased 1.18% to close at 21.00. The Weighted Average was 21.24 but that
gets rounded down 0.24 and not up 0.01. Equity Bank traded a
21.00-21.50 range and 1.747m shares worth 37.126m. Equity Bank has
posted a 27.569% Return in 2012.

Diamond Trust Bank traded 2nd. DTB retreated 3.5% to close at 96.50
and traded 272,500 shares. Diamond Trust is +6.62% in 2012 and trades
on a 7.1062 PE Ratio and 1.6285 Price to Book.
COOP Bank eased 2.15% to close at 13.65 on Low Volume of 74,100 shares.
Barclays Bank eased 5 cents to close at 12.95 and traded 249,000 shares.

Housing Finance retreated 3.797% to close at 15.20 and was trading
Session Lows of 15.00 -5.06% at the Closing Bell.
NIC eased 0.7575% to close at 32.75 and traded 137,100 shares.

PanAfric firmed 1.666% to close at 30.50 and traded 35,200 shares.
British American Investments retreated 2.655% to close at 5.50 and
traded 22,200 shares. Supply outweighed Demand by a Factor of 10
versus 1.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

BAT closed unchanged at 336.00 and traded a 335.00-350.00 range and
25,700 shares. Todays Session High of 350.00 is a Fresh All Time Intra
Day High Print. BAT has hit a Sequence of All Time Closing Highs in
2012 and is +46.37% in 2012 when the Final Dividend is included. BAT
trades on a 10.8457 PE Ratio and is an Outlier at the Nairobi
Securities Exchange in 2012.

BAT Kenya share Price Data Price and Volume Graphs
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mjk%3D

EABL traded 4th. EABL closed unchanged at 217.00 and traded a
215.00-218.00 range and 101,200 shares worth 22.018m. EABL is +26.16%
in 2012 and sits just 0.91% beneath its all Time Closing High of
219.00 from May 23rd.

Unga rallied 4.118% to close at 12.65 and traded 5,400 shares. Unga
has rallied 40.555% in 2012, trades on a 3.5434 PE and this Level
remains a 47 Month High.

Unga is a 47 Month High share Data Price and Volume Graphs here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NDI%3D

Eveready was high ticked 5.5533% to close at 1.90 and 14,200 shares
were traded.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2012
 
 
 
 
RICH PODCASTS
08-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 8th April 2011
07-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 7th April 2011
06-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 6th April 2011
05-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 5th April 2011
04-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 4th April 2011
01-apr-2011 ::  Rich Podcast 1st April 2011
 
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