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Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

I thank Beatrice Marshall for the Interview Talk Africa CCTV Twitpic
http://twitpic.com/9qzwq5

I went to the Sankara last night for the Farewell Party for Pierre
Trouilhat of Nestle Equatorial Africa

@PTrouilhat I remain an Afro Optimist @NestleCSV Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9r1pks

Pierre is a Friend, an Epicurean and was a wonderful Guest at
#Mindspeak this Year. It was a Pleasure to make the Acquaintance of
the Incoming Head of Region and CEO Ian Donald Esquire.

@PTrouilhat  #Mindspeak 2012 RICH #TV
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richtv.php

Home Thoughts

We are off to Maputo tomorrow and I am looking forward to it immensely.

Maputo, the capital of Mozambique and the home (I am told) of
wonderfully flavorsome tiger prawns. CS Monitor
http://bit.ly/9AtLTl

Dancers in Coconuts nightclub, Maputo Guardian Photo
http://j.mp/JSl3eA

Macro Thoughts

Protection against what we call tail risks: really, really bad
outcomes Ben Bernanke
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/025NSX1807.pdf

When Ben Bernanke was asked why people hold gold last week, “As
protection against what we call tail risks: really, really bad
outcomes,” he answered. He said this in a way that suggested these bad
outcomes (default, currency collapse, hyperinflation and the like) are
really unlikely.

He enjoys Handel and Bach—“not Beethoven”—and his favorite singer is
Mahalia Jackson. His favorite movie character is Dirty Harry.

America's murderous drone campaign is fuelling terror Guardian
http://j.mp/KKr12z

From Pakistan to Somalia, CIA-controlled pilotless aircraft rain down
Hellfire missiles on an ever-expanding hit list of terrorist suspects
– they have already killed hundreds, perhaps thousands, of civilians
in the process.

At least 15 drone strikes have been launched in Yemen this month, as
many as in the whole of the past decade, killing dozens; while in
Pakistan, a string of US attacks has been launched against supposed
"militant" targets in the past week, incinerating up to 35 people and
hitting a mosque and a bakery.

In his first two years in office, the US president more than tripled
the number of attacks in Pakistan alone.

Obama has now renamed the campaign "overseas contingency operations"
and is switching the emphasis from boots on the ground to robots.

Conclusions

The Drone War has seriously tilted the Pitch and President Obama's
Embrace of it is total but the Long term Blow Back is yet to be
measured.

It was in his interest to avoid any atrocity that would draw
international attention. It is a measure of the lack of effective
decision-making within the regime that they could not restrain their
own forces. “Within the regime, there are divisions between the
civilians, military and security,” believes one commentator in
Damascus. “There is not a single authority ruling the state but
clusters of authority within the leadership.”

Conclusions

I am not sure if this correct. I think Bashar's Mother is a very Big
Player and his Brother Maher. The Irregular Militia probably report
through Maher and he might have taken the Decision over Houla. There
is a residual chance of a Black Ops Situation, of some kind.

Euro 1.2397 The euro traded 1.2358 its weakest since July 2010
Dollar Index 82.90 rose to as high as 83.11 today, the most since September 2010
Japan Yen 78.81 touched 78.71 the strongest since Feb. 16
Swiss Franc 0.9689
Pound 1.5484
Aussie 0.9729
India Rupee 56.46
South Korea Won 1180.80
Brazil Real  2.0154
Egypt Pound 6.0451
South Africa Rand 8.5132

“Fear is moving the market,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency
strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Capital.

Yields on Japan’s 10-year government notes declined to as low as 0.81
percent today, the least since July 2003. U.S. 10- year yields slid to
a record low of 1.5933 percent.

Spain’s 10-year bond yield rose as high as 6.70 percent yesterday.

The euro has declined 1.6 percent in the past month according to
Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, a gauge of 10 developed-market
currencies. The yen climbed 7.4 percent, the best performer, while the
dollar strengthened 5.9 percent.

Conclusions

My 1.1760 Euro Objective looks very much in sight now.

I think the Dollar Rally remains violent through June or until the
Chatter around QE3 starts to ratchet higher ahead of the President's
Re Election.

Euro versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 1.2404 Last
http://bit.ly/asiQTd

The Euro reached 1.1877 in June of 2010, which was the lowest level in
four years. Since its inception in 1999, the euro has traded as low as
82.30 U.S. cents, in 2000, and as high as 1.6038 in July 2008.

Conclusions

I look for 1.1760 Year End.

Dollar Index 1 Year Chart INO 82.907 Last
http://bit.ly/cfmNIL

My Objective is 88.00 or until the FED steps up the Intensity of the
Language around QE3.

The Department of the Treasury #Washington QE and the Money Printing Gig Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/93pu4v

Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 87.93 Last
http://j.mp/J3BIyL

Crude for July delivery was unchanged at $87.82 a barrel in electronic
trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 3 p.m. Singapore time.
The contract slid $2.94 yesterday to $87.82, the lowest settlement
since Oct. 21. Prices are down 16 percent this month, the biggest drop
since December 2008, and are 11 percent lower this year.

Conclusions

Its been hammered.

Gold 3 Month Chart INO 1563.00 Last
http://j.mp/ywc7Gi

Spot gold fell as much as 0.3 percent to $1,558.75 an ounce, and was
at $1,560.95 at 3:01 p.m. in Singapore, after climbing 0.5 percent
yesterday. Bullion is 6.2 percent lower in May for its biggest drop
this year as the dollar rallied 5.2 percent against a six-currency
basket including the euro. A fourth monthly decline would be the
metal’s longest run of losses since the period to August 1999.

The daily correlation coefficient between gold and the dollar is at
minus 0.301, compared with minus 0.169 in October, data compiled by
Bloomberg show. A figure of minus 1 means the two tend to move in
opposite directions, and 1 means they move in lockstep.

Conclusions

It might try and base out here.

The Intensity of the Uncertainty remains as elevated as it ever did.

Brazil cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low and signaled it
will lower borrowing costs further as a fragile world economy contains
inflation risks.

Policy makers led by bank President Alexandre Tombini voted
unanimously to lower the Selic rate by a half-point to 8.5 percent
last night, as forecast by 61 of 70 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Policy makers, in a statement, said that inflation risks are “limited”
and that “fragility” abroad is having a “disinflationary” impact in
Latin America’s biggest economy.

Brazil has cut borrowing costs by four percentage points since August,
the most in the Group of 20, to try and revive growth. The monetary
stimulus and efforts to prop up spending through tax cuts have yet to
kick in as the economy unexpectedly contracted in March after
shrinking in January and February.

“The statement increases the chances that interest rates will be cut
to below 8 percent,” said Roberto Padovani, chief economist at
Votorantim Ctvm Ltda.

Brazil Real 6 Month Chart INO 2.0129 Last
http://j.mp/uvjIov

SELL THE REAL

Gross domestic product rose 5.3 percent in the three months ended
March from a year earlier, compared with 6.1 percent in the previous
quarter, the Central Statistical Office said in a statement in New
Delhi today. The median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was
for a 6.1 percent gain. GDP climbed 6.5 percent in the year to March,
the office said.

The rise in full-year GDP compares with the 6.7 percent median
estimate in a Bloomberg survey and 8.4 percent in 2010- 2011.

India’s weaknesses include “loose fiscal policy, inflation, subsidies
and regulatory uncertainties,” said Atsi Sheth, a credit analyst in
New York at Moody’s Investors Service. The rupee’s decline will hurt
companies with large foreign-currency repayments due this year, she
said.

The pace of price increases climbed to 7.23 percent in April, the
fastest among the largest emerging economies.

The trade deficit in Asia’s third-largest economy widened to a record
$184.9 billion in 2011-2012, fanning concern about whether India can
attract enough foreign capital to fund the excess of imports.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is also trying to narrow the budget
deficit to 5.1 percent of GDP in the year that began April 1, from 5.9
percent, in part by limiting subsidies.

Standard & Poor’s cut India’s credit outlook to negative from stable
last month, imperiling its investment grade status and saying the
political environment is “unfavorable.”

Conclusions

I have a 60.00 Target for the Rupee. Its the lack of Decisiveness
around the Policy Making Apparatus thats the Real Issue. The Lower
Currency should encourage Exports but a lot India Inc. is acrrying
Dollar Debt on the Balance Sheet.

India Rupee 6 Month Chart INO 56.448 Last
http://j.mp/J9mQyZ

The rupee weakened 0.3 percent to 56.39 per dollar as of 11:21 a.m.
local time. It has slumped 20 percent in the past year, the most in a
basket of 11 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg.The rupee reached
an unprecedented low of 56.515 per dollar today.

Conclusions

I said 60.00.

Taylor was "in a class of his own" compared with others convicted by
the court. "The special status of Mr Taylor as a head of state puts
him in a different category of offenders for the purpose of
sentencing."

Conclusions

A Lot of Folks might be remembering their John Donne

For whom the bell tolls a poem
(No man is an island) by John Donne

No man is an island,
Entire of itself.
Each is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thine own
Or of thine friend's were.
Each man's death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.

Charles Taylor: showman in white robes with blood on his hands
nicknamed 'Papay' Guardian
http://j.mp/KWOV7z

Student activist, accountant, fugitive from US justice, Libyan-trained
guerrilla, warlord, president, cannibal, dealer in blood diamonds, war
crimes scapegoat – the multiple masks worn by, or imposed on, Charles
Taylor would tax any actor portraying the dapper Liberian showman.

As a child, he helped his father cut sugar cane on their farm in rural
Liberia, 30 miles north of the capital, Monrovia. He later recalled
walking to school shoeless – but Taylor was not from a deprived
background.

His father was one of the relatively privileged Americo-Liberian elite
that had run the west African state since its foundation in 1847 as an
independent republic for freed US slaves.

His mother was an indigenous Liberian from the Gola tribe. That dual
inheritance in a divided country enabled him to reach out to followers
across both Africa and the United States. Born with the middle name
McArthur, he later changed it to Ghankay, meaning "strong one" in the
Gola language.

Having fought his way to military dominance in Liberia, the flamboyant
rebel leader was finally elected president in 1997 with more than 75%
of votes in an election that most poll monitors deemed to be largely a
fair contest. His nearest rival, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, who is now
president, took only 10% of the votes.

The warlord Charles Taylor holds his AK-47 assault rifle in Buchanan
on May 29 1990
http://j.mp/JNmJuo

The warlord Charles Taylor holds his AK-47 assault rifle in Buchanan
on May 29 1990 as he marches to the capital, Monrovia, to oust
President Samuel Doe following a five-month insurgency.

Charles Taylor and the Killing Tree Jon Lee Anderson
http://j.mp/IJ5OEG

One day during my visit, Taylor invited me to his his private
residence. He lived on the outskirts of Monrovia in a neighborhood,
Congotown, which borders the ocean. He had built himself a new house
there; it was surrounded by high concrete walls, and had a private
chapel, tennis and basketball courts, and a swimming pool. It was
built into the incline of a steep hill and overlooked verdant bushland
that becomes a swamp in the rainy season. I noticed that on the other
side of the main road that ran in front of Taylor’s compound, where
there was a permanent detachment of his armed adolescent gunmen, stood
an unfinished building, a grimy concrete structure that was open to
the elements and had become a sanctuary for destitute war refugees. I
wondered how Taylor felt seeing them every day, and if he had any
compulsion to help them.

Taylor had received me in the carport of his residence, sitting in a
small chair that was covered in beige velour and shiny brass, next to
a black Mercedes sedan, one of several that were parked there. He wore
an ivory-colored lace caftan shirt and pantaloons, python-skin
slippers with gold buckles, a diamond-encrusted gold watch,
gold-rimmed sunglasses, and a black baseball cap with “President
Taylor” spelled out in gold braid. There was a white plastic lawn
chair next to him. He smiled and motioned toward it: “Sit down, my
dear, sit down.” A carved oxblood-colored swagger stick lay on a side
table. He told me that he begun carrying the stick during the war. It
was made from the wood of a “sacred tree,” under which no grass grew,
and which caused any animal that came near it to die. He carefully
emphasized the tree’s death-dealing powers. It was as if he derived a
pleasure in his notoriety, while he carefully avoiding saying anything
that could be seen an as explicit admission of guilt.

I asked Taylor whether he felt any moral responsibility for the
atrocities committed by his troops during the war. “I have already
apologized to the Liberian people, I have asked their forgiveness, and
I have also forgiven them,” he replied. (He didn’t say what the
Liberian people had to do to earn his forgiveness.)

A child soldier wearing a teddy bear backpack points his gun at a
photographer in Monrovia after Charles Taylor's forces took control of
the city in June 2003
http://j.mp/M7ZN9Y

PARIS (Reuters) - The African Union plans to refer the situation in
Mali to the United Nations Security Council so that it can create a
framework for tackling the worsening crisis there, a diplomatic source
close to the AU president said on Wednesday.

"The African Union will go to the Security Council and then it will be
up to it to find the right format for a resolution and if it deems
military support necessary," said the source close to Thomas Boni
Yayi, the Benin president and head of the African Union.

The West African group ECOWAS said it rejected the idea of a separate
Islamic state in northern Mali, and new French President Francois
Hollande urged African leaders on Tuesday to ask the U.N. Security
Council to help restore stability in the region.

Hollande said France, the former colonial ruler, would be ready to
help restore stability in Mali if there was a Security Council
resolution.

Yayi, who met Hollande on Tuesday, was quoted by French media as
saying he wanted a UN-backed force to intervene in Mali along the
lines of the African Union force in Somalia.

France has previously said it would provide logistical support for an
African operation and new Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told
reporters on Wednesday that there was a real risk of the region
turning into a "West African Afghanistan."

"We can't let this area become a new sanctuary for terrorism," Le
Drian told a news conference. "There are real risks. We have to act,
but the right players to do that are ECOWAS, the African Union and the
Security Council.

Paris has already trained troops in Mauritania and Niger to fight al
Qaeda's North African wing in the region.

"It's a difficult, dangerous zone and we are looking at it extremely
carefully," Le Drian said, declining to say whether French troops
already based in West Africa were being increased or repositioned for
an eventual intervention.

Is the crisis in Mali over? Inside Story Aljazeera
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2012/05/2012539022771976.html

So, is the crisis in Mali over? Has the peace deal brokered by ECOWAS
simply failed? What is next for this politically-fragile country? And,
who is to blame for the crisis in Mali?

Joining presenter Kamahl Santamaria on Inside Story to discuss these
issues are guests: Alessandra Giuffrida, an anthropologist
specialising in Mali at the School of Oriental and African Studies;
Aly Khan Satchu, a political analyst and CEO of the East Africa
financial portal, Rich.co.ke; and Sunday Ugoh, an ECOWAS spokesperson.

"Very nice-sounding agreements are not going to really carry any
weight until the junta feel that they need to step aside and so far
it's clear they don't."

- Aly Khan Satchu, a political analyst

Conclusions

The Peeling off of the North was entirely a Consequence of the
Overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi and the Return from Libya of the Tuaregs.

The UN announced its budget for feeding the over one million Somali
refugees under its care for the next year and have allocated less than
10 cents a day to do so.

Anthony Lake, once nominated to head the CIA, now UNICEF supremo, held
a press conference in April 2012 to declare a budget of $35 million
for the next year to feed the Somali refugees in its care, over one
million and growing by the day.

And all the while the UN is funding the 20,000 man strong African
Union army “pacifying” Mogadishu to the tune of over $350 million, $30
million a month and counting.

The UN created these refugees in the first place, sending in the
Ethiopian army in 2006 to bring fire and sword to newly peaceful
Somalia, followed by the UN dispatched relief forces, now over 15,000
from Uganda, ever since 2008.

Half a million Somali refugees created by the Ethiopian army, another
half a million created by the UN/AU “pacification” of Mogadishu and
now, following the worst drought and famine in 60 years, less than 10
cents a day to feed the lot.

Conclusions

Thomas Mountain has a Partisan Opinion but its always worth knowing
what the Full Spectrum is thinking,

30May12 - Al Shabab SPECIAL REPORT-In Africa, a militant group's
growing appeal   By William Maclean, Noor Khamis and Mohamed Ahmed
Reuters
http://j.mp/LWVafL

GARISSA, Kenya, May 30 (Reuters) - When Abdullahi slipped across the
Kenya-Somali border to join the fighters of Islamist militant group al
Shabaab in 2009, the livestock herder from northern Kenya found
himself among recruits from around the globe.  There were ethnic
Somalis who had grown up in Australia, Britain, France and the United
States. But there was also a large number of fellow Kenyans in the
group's ranks. They included, unexpectedly, dozens of young men who
did not share his Somali ancestry or language but came instead from
the green, tropical heartland of Kenya where Christianity is the
dominant religion.

   Abdullahi, then aged about 20, initially dismissed those men as
opportunists who had pretended to convert to Islam to win work as guns
for hire.

   Then he saw them in battle.

   "They were good fighters. I saw the way they would advise us to
fight, to defend ourselves," Abdullahi said of his two years in al
Shabaab, during which time he fought Somalia's weak United
Nations-backed government. "I fought one battle outside Mogadishu.
Half of us died... (The Kenyans) were very brave, the way they ran
towards gunfire."

   That's exactly what worries Kenyan and Western security agencies.
Al Shabaab has been waging an insurgency against Somalia's fragile
interim government since 2007 and formally became part of al Qaeda
earlier this year. Abdullahi's account is part of a mounting body of
evidence - including intelligence picked up by security agencies,
research by the United Nations and accounts by Muslim Kenyans
interviewed for this story - that suggests al Shabaab is mentoring a
new and increasingly multi-ethnic generation of militants in the
region.

   That could have major ramifications not just for Somalia, which has
been without a working government for two decades, but also for
countries such as Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, relatively stable
democracies whose economies are among the steadiest in Africa. This
week, Kenyan politicians blamed a  bombing in central Nairobi on al
Shabaab, which means "Youth" or "Boys" in Arabic.

   Al Shabaab seeks to impose a strict version of Sharia or Islamic
law. The group emerged as a force in 2006 as part of a movement that
pushed U.S.-backed warlords out of Somalia's capital, Mogadishu. It
remains Somalia's most powerful non-government armed group and in its
propaganda, promotes the idea that many Muslims are flocking to its
cause around Africa. Washington and London have long worried the
Somali group aimed to expand its influence in Africa. That suspicion
was confirmed last July when a United Nations investigation found al
Shabaab had created extensive funding, recruiting and training
networks in Kenya.

   Much remains unclear about the strength of the group's following
outside Somalia. Some academics, including Kenya-based independent
researcher Paul Goldsmith and University of California scholar Jeremy
Prestholdt, urge caution because Kenya's Western allies may play up
the significance of the group to justify budgets and expanded
surveillance powers.

   Abdullahi's story about his time in al Shabaab couldn't be
independently verified. His account is consistent with those of other
young Kenyan men involved in Islamist radicalism, including another
former al Shabaab fighter interviewed for this story, 22-year-old
Mohamud, and by clerics, police officials, diplomats, security
officials, lawyers, academics and social workers.

   The flow of recruits continues, they say. A skinny, bearded figure
in sandals, dusty black trousers and a sports shirt, Abdullahi lives
in Mandera, a few hours drive from Garissa, the town in Kenya's dusty
north where he spoke with Reuters. He quit al Shabaab last year, he
said, because he grew disillusioned with the violence and with
promises of payments that never came. Back home, he is unemployed and
hopes to study at university. His militant days are behind him, though
he asked that his full name not be used because he worried about
official reprisals.

   "GOING OVER"

   Pinning down the number of non-Somalis who have joined al Shabaab
is difficult. Boniface Mwaniki, head of Kenya's Anti-Terrorist Police
Unit, said it was impossible to compile accurate figures because the
Kenyan-Somali border is porous and long. In separate interviews, a
Western private security consultant, a European diplomat, a lawyer
familiar with the militant Islamist community in Kenya, a community
organiser and an independent researcher with an international
non-governmental organisation all said that up to 600 non-Somali
Kenyans are currently fighting with al Shabaab, around 10 percent of
the group's total troops.

   The militant group is also using its connections and social media
to inspire the creation of loose networks of sympathisers in Kenya,
Tanzania and Uganda. Kenya's Security Minister George Saitoti worries
that this support could allow al Shabaab to threaten East Africa, and
especially Kenya, the region's economic hub.  Non-Somali East Africans
have taken part in al Qaeda attacks before, including the 1998
bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and the suicide
bomb attack on an Israeli-owned hotel near Mombasa in 2002. A few have
risen high in al Qaeda: Indian Ocean islander Fazul Harun Mohamed once
worked as Osama bin Laden's private secretary in Afghanistan.

   "We've seen a very different dynamic now. The young converts are
the ones who are being lured into terrorism," said Al-Amin Kimathi, a
Kenyan human rights activist who was released last year after being
held on suspicion of involvement in the Kampala bombings.

ELDERS LOSE CONTROL

   The pull of militancy is placing new strains on the region's Muslim
communities, say elders, clerics and younger Muslims.

   "The older generation has lost control of the youngsters. They've
lost it completely," said Kimathi, who was born a Christian in Nyeri
in Kenya's central highlands and converted to Islam in his mid-30s.

   Most converts, he said, are "overzealous" and easy targets for al
Shabaab's recruitment campaigns, especially if they are poor. Because
the young men, often converts, do not fit the conventional profile of
an Arab or Somali militant, they are harder to track, one European
diplomat said.

   But Kenya's police have made life harder for the group's
recruiters. Back in April 2009, when Abdullahi joined al Shabaab, it
was possible for recruiters to carry out indoctrination sessions in a
mosque. Abdullahi met al Shabaab clerics from Somalia when they came
to preach in his home town of Mandera.

   "It was after afternoon prayers. We went to a corner of the mosque
where we could talk quietly," he said. "They said that jihad was going
on in Somalia and that we were all brothers and should join the jihad.
They promised us money and food."

   "They said Islam was under attack, and they mentioned Ethiopia.
They told us the Ethiopians and other Christians were attacking Islam
and they wanted to wash Islam out of the country. That made me feel so
angry."

"I joined for the jihad, I wanted to defend Islam. But of course we
needed money to support the family," he said.

   The Somali clerics who had visited his mosque paid him $1,000 and
said more money would follow. It did not.

   "Of course I believed in jihad," Abdullahi said, shaking his head.
"But what I found them fighting was not jihad."

   "YOU WANT TO ATTACK"

   Al Shabaab may have lost Abdullahi, but there are others ready to
take his place, many of them not ethnic Somalis. In the port city of
Mombasa on Kenya's Indian Ocean Coast, sermons by fiery clerics stoke
anti-Western sentiment.

   Suleiman Adam, a 25-year-old mobile-phone card salesman, says his
radicalisation began in 2002 when he enrolled in an Islamic boarding
school north of the city. Adam, whose forefathers came from Sudan, is
the son of a truck driver who could not afford to send his son to a
regular high school.  Looking back, Adam said, it was obvious that
some of his teachers at the school sympathised with al Shabaab.

   There were moments when he agreed. "If you see some American
tourist, like a kaffir (unbeliever), you just feel like you want to
attack him. You are of that mind that 'These people are bad. These
people want to finish this religion of Islam.' That was what was in my
mind ... You feel like going and exploding yourself."

   But even in his radical days Adam was not as extreme as some of his
classmates, who included non-Somali Kenyans like him. "There are
some... who are 50-50. We felt it's not a jihad, going to explode
yourself, that's not a jihad. It wasn't making sense. But there were
those who were 100 percent. They believed in that."

   That faith is exploited by unscrupulous radical preachers, say
community leaders like Imam Mustafa Bakari. Sitting in a cafe opposite
his Masjid Fathi mosque in Mombasa, he said he worried that the
recruitment would continue "because preachers in Mombasa are
continuing with these wrong teachings.

   "We have Muslims here who want to go to Somalia to join al Shabaab,
but I've told them they should not go to Somalia because the war there
is not jihad. In Somalia it's Muslims fighting Muslims and that is not
jihad."

   A sense of piety is often fuelled by more practical considerations.
Mwalimu Rama, 38, a former youth leader who now works for a
non-governmental organisation that counsels young Mombasa radicals,
has friends with al Shabaab in Somalia. Some occasionally call him to
chat about their exploits, he said.

   But when he tries to persuade them to come home, they scoff. "What,
you have a job for me? You want to employ me? Is there actually
anything good there, if I come back?" he said they ask.

   THE SALAFI INFLUENCE

   Sitting in a white plastic chair in a temporary mosque made of
wooden poles and sheets of blue plastic and green canvas,  Hussein
suggested the spread of Salafi Islam in Majengo was a result of the
increasing influence of Somalis with longer exposure to Salafist
thinking. While many Salafis are no less revolted by al Qaeda-style
violence than other Muslims, their puritanical branch of the religion
is espoused by many of the militants behind al Shabaab.

   "We have been against the Somali influence in this area for as long
as I can remember," Hussein said. "As the population of the Somalis
started growing in Nairobi ... the Somalis came here day time and
night time," he said. "They have money. So it's the influence of
money. So the youth here will tell the old men, 'What are you giving
me? You are not giving me anything,'" he said. "Where there is money,
people will go."

   POLICE PROBLEMS

   It doesn't help that the police response to radicalism is often
heavy-handed and corrupt, community activists say. Diplomats say that
poor Muslim coastal areas of East Africa such as Mombasa or Tanzania's
Zanzibar islands are particularly vulnerable.

   It's "not far-fetched at all" to suggest that political stability
on the East Africa coast could be threatened, a Western official said.

   Stig Jarle Hansen, associate professor at the Department of
International Environment and Development Studies at the Norwegian
University of Life Sciences, reckons that in terms of the quality of
their response, "the Kenyans are where countries like Norway and
Britain were about 20 years ago. They are using hard power, not soft
power. They are not going into the communities to talk. They are going
in to arrest. Engagement is not happening and that's not just because
of a policy weakness but also because of the poverty of the state.
They have less resources."

   Police spokesman Eric Kiraithe said the force was not heavy-handed
and such an allegation was "mischievous."

   Kimathi, the Kenyan human-rights activist, also blames
counter-terrorist activities by Western and African forces. He spent
almost a year in detention, much of it in solitary confinement, on
suspicion of involvement in the Kampala bombings. He had visited
Uganda to advise several Kenyans transferred there by Kenyan
authorities after they had been picked up for the attacks. The
prosecutor dropped murder and terrorism charges against him in
September 2011 and released him.

   The Ugandan prosecutor declined comment on his decision.

   Despite his experience, Kimathi says there is a problem with the
expansion of al Shabaab into non-Somali ethnic groups in East Africa.

   "That is what is worrying now," he said. "They are still finding
their ways around ... They think the whole world is their theatre."

(William Maclean reported from Nairobi and Mombasa, Noor Khamis from
Nairobi, Mohamed Ahmed from Garissa; Additional reporting by David
Clarke, Richard Lough, James Macharia, Humphrey Malalo and George
Obulutsa in Nairobi; Writing by William Maclean; Editing by Simon
Robinson and Sara Ledwith)  ((william.maclean@thomsonreuters.com))

Conclusions

Very thorough Overview. The Problem is that in a World of over 7b, The
Fat Tail [Those of the 7b who are disaffected and disconnected like
Camus' L'Etranger is actually a big Number] is actually a material
Number even if it only represents 1% of the Total Population. Now with
the Internet and the flattening of the Communication Cost via the
Information Century, its a lot easier for these Folks to be reached,
indoctrinated and then sent out. Its an Asymettric Thing but its
material.

The Swahili Coast is clearly bleeping on the Radar as well.

Rand fell to 8.58 to the greenback, its weakest since late November.

This Outcome was predicted and Predictable.

Britain is to buy up to £20 million worth of Malawian currency to help
stabilise the African state's economy following a major devaluation,
it has been revealed.

The announcement was made by International Development Secretary
Andrew Mitchell during a visit to Malawi which marks a relaunch of the
bilateral development partnership under new President Joyce Banda.

Mr Mitchell said: "Britain has been a long-time friend to Malawi and
we stand ready to help Malawi during this difficult time of
transition."

The name “Serengeti” has become an icon of wild places. Derived from
the Maasai language, it means “extended” or “endless,” and this vast
African grassland does in fact inspire a feeling of limitlessness.
Serengeti National Park in Tanzania encompasses 5,700 square miles.
The total Serengeti ecosystem includes Kenya’s Masai Mara Reserve, the
Ngorongoro Crater Conservation Area, and adjacent reserves such as
Loliondo, Maswa, Ikorongo, and Grumeti. Add them all up and you have a
protected area of almost 10,000 square miles

"We have about 10 times as much territory in Kenya so there is
enormous potential there."

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           13.50
Total Shares Issued:          582710000.00
Market Capitalization:        7,866,585,000
EPS:             -0.31
PE:                 -43.548

6 Months through March 2012 versus 6 Months through March 2011
Units Sold 1163 Versus 1202
Sales 6.378883b versus 6.118176b
Net FX Gains 450.28m versus -106.401m
Profit Before Tax PBT 542.186m versus 178.476m +203.78%
Profit After Tax PAT 383.551m versus 120.512m +218.26%
Earnings Per Share 1.32 versus 0.41+221.95%

Conclusions

Quite a Rebound. The Big Swing in the P and L is related to the Line
Item NET FX Gains where a 450.28m Gain has been booked versus a Loss
of 106.401m last time.

Swot Analysis Full Year September 2011 versus FY September 2010
Sales 11.805399b versus 12.762920b -7.4986%
Admin Expenses 1.633896b versus 1.148111b +42.311%
Profit Before Tax PBT -209.57m versus 584.887m
Profit After Tax -181.146m versus 406.671m
EPS -0.31 versus 0.70
No Dividend

Conclusions

It was entirely predictable that the Board Room Wars would impale
Profits. The Question now is all around the return to Profitability

21-NOV-2011 CMC Media Wars Doing Big Damage To Its Reputation The Star
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX2111-1.pdf

ONCE upon a time, CMC [Coopers Motors Corporation] was incorporated as
a private limited company in July 1948 when Mr Allen and Mr Cooper
came to East Africa to sell Land Rovers. With an authorized share
capital of Pounds Sterling 10,000 and a total staff of two, trading
commenced in borrowed offices in a wooden hut along the then Jackson
Road. Today, CMC has grown to become one of Kenya’s largest and most
‘respected’ automotive distributors within East Africa.

01-AUG-2011 The Fit and Proper Test and the NSE The Star
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/036NSX0108.pdf

The reason I am recounting this story is because that was then and
this is now. And it seems to me that once ‘The Fit and Proper Test’
was a concept without much real bite in Nairobi. However, as I watch
developments far away, I see multinational corporations who are making
a clean breast of things. From Alcatel to Siemens, from the Swiss
banking system to various tax havens. Changes to behaviour can
be triggered by the regulator and that’s why we have regulatory
agencies but changes can also be triggered by the landscape and the
environment. There has been an earthquake in our affairs, in many
respects. The world is converging and flattening. That Fit and Proper
Test might well begin to rear its head right here.

04-APR-2011 CMC Sets Pace For Exit Of Old Style Management The Star
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/011NSX0404.pdf

WE have more than two million shareholders at the Nairobi Stock
Exchange. This was a result of the privatisation program that saw the
government sell stakes to the public in many companies. This pipeline
had
momentum but subsequently stalled post the Safaricom IPO. The reason
the pipeline stalled [and hindsight is a wonderful thing, I admit] was
shares in Safaricom were sold too high and most of those two million
shareholders are still off side. The Government killed the Golden
Goose by extracting a higher price for themselves but the net Effect
was that the Safaricom IPO put a good portion of those two
millioninvestors out of the game.

Last Week, CMC Holdings saw its long standing chairman Mr. Kierieni
and the CEO Martin Forster ‘step aside’. New shareholders had muscled
onto the share register and a sequence of three consecutive years of
declining profits had focussed the minds of the new shareholders, who
essentially ousted the chairman and CEO. This is the first example
[and there are 53 companies at the NSE] I have seen of management
being held to account and I cheer it from the roof tops. There are a
number of companies that need to feel the shareholders hot breath on
their collar and Paul Ndungu [The principal mover behind the CMC
action] has done all two million shareholders a favour.

Capitalism has always worked on the basis that capitalism rewards
success and culls failure. In some countries, CEOs are not given three
years, they get given a year. If we want our Economy to perform
optimally, we have to call failure to account. Paul just did that and
I commend him wholeheartedly for setting this important precedent.

The broadcaster, Abeer Madi al-Halabi, said that President Ben-Ali’s
demise in Tunisia would serve as “a lesson for countries where
presidents and kings have rusted on their thrones.” Paul Ndungu’s CMC
manouevre serves similar notice on management at those companies
listed at the NSE who have ‘rusted on their thrones.’

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           28.00
Total Shares Issued:         33,420,000
Market Capitalization:        0
EPS:             7.78
PE:                 0.000

Swot Analysis 6 Months through March 2012 versus 6 Months through March 2011
Turnover 2.787764b versus 2.764696b
Interest Expense -142.923 versus -75.048m
Profit Before Tax PBT 163.473m versus 106.245m +53.8641%
Profit After Tax PAT 142.703m versus 72.739m
Exchange Difference Translation of Foreign Operations -46.08m versus +11.071m
Total Comprehensive Income 96.623m versus 83.81m
Earnings Per Share 4.27 versus 2.18 =+95.871%

Conclusions

Well Managed and undervalued.

FY Results to Sep 2011 versus FY to Sep 2010
Turnover 6.086106b versus 4.779318b +27.34%
Profit Before Fair Value Gains 326.978m versus 412.561m
FV Gains Investment Property 292.578m versus 61.625m.
PAT 288.706m versus 238.234m +21.18%
EPS 7.78 versus 7.12 +9.269%
Final Dividend 0.55 versus 0.80 -31.25%

Company cites Adverse Foreign Exchange Movements as the biggest Challenge.

Conclusions

On a Trailing PE of 3.2133, Cargen looks compelling. They have grown
their Regional Footprint and will surely perform in a Environment of
reduced Currency Volatility.

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           1.90
Total Shares Issued:       210,000,000
Market Capitalization:  399,000,000
EPS:             -0.59
PE:                 0.000

Swot Analysis 6 Months through March 2012 versus six months through March 2011
Turnover 714.674m versus 659.672m
Finance Costs +41.002m versus -38.304m -> Company citing 64m in
Exchange Gains 21% Reduction in Borrowings over the Period
Profit Before Tax 66.972m versus -72.223m
Profit After Tax 44.48m versus 53.989m
Earnings Per Share 0.21 versus -0.26

Conclusions

Much better Results than I had expected but the Sweetener was around
the 64m in Exchange Gains.

Swot Analysis FY Sep 2011 versus FY Sep 2010
Turnover 1.374847b versus 1.635105b -16%
PBT -173.208m versus +14.746m
PAT -123.994m versus +8.703m
EPS -0.59 versus 0.04
No Dividend

Conclusions

I have no Idea how Management is seeking how to dig themselves out of this Hole.

Swot Analysis
Turnover 1.635b versus 1.645b
Full Year Sep 2010 versus Sep 2009
EPS 0.04 versus 0.13
Finance Costs 57.887m versus 26.664m

Comments on Results

Illicit Dry Cell Trade.
Zinc +43%
Depreciation of Kenya Shilling

Conclusions

They had already warned

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           54.50
Total Shares Issued:          284790000.00
Market Capitalization:        15,521,055,000
EPS:             2.55
PE:                 21.373

Swot Analysis FY 2011 versus FY 2010
Billings 11.763664b versus 11.363839b +3.518%
Revenues 3.597260b versus 2.345554b +53.365%
Operating Expenses 2.517262b versus 1.685377b +49.358%
Investment Income and Exchange Gain 0.200102b versus 0.178219b
Profit Before Taxation 1.280100b versus 0.838396b +52.6844%
Profit After Tax 0.911116b versus 0.640585b +42.231%
EPS 2.55 versus 2.11 +20.853%
2011 Results reflect the FY Numbers of Ogilvy Subsidiaries acquired in
October 2010
Final Dividend of 0.70 a share

Conclusions

Scangroup is a WPP.L look alike in that it is a Consolidator. WPP are
the largest shareholder on the Register. ScanGroup has delivered a
solid Set of Results. Advertising Spend in SSA remains a Rising Tide
and ScanGroup are in Pole Position to surf that rising Tide.

The CEO @BharatThakrar was my Guest at #Mindspeak on the Weekend Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9r6h5r

My Weekly Piece for the Star was about @BharatThakrar and ScanGroup
http://j.mp/L4xgAF

ScanGroup's share price has rallied 264.35% since September 2006. The
total return since September 2006 has been 294.88%. The NSE20 Index
has retreated 20.94% over the exact same period. Therefore, ScanGroup
has outperformed the benchmark index by 315.82% over that period. The
annualised return has been 27.42%. ScanGroup has a market
capitalisation of Sh14.951 billion, which is $175.378 million. Today,
Sir Martin Sorrell's WPP is the biggest shareholder with just over
33%.

Bharat Thakrar was my guest at Mindspeak on Saturday. I spend a great
deal of my time, studying share of voice and the viral world and on
Friday, I told Bharat via sms [He was waiting to catch his flight back
from Lagos and is evidently staking out a forward position in West
Africa and in fact all points across Sub Saharan Africa] that I never
knew he was quite the viral phenomenon. Interest was sky high.

Actually, Bharat Thakrar's Mindspeak was 2nd only to President Yoweri
Museveni's in its share of voice and recall, there was major drama
when President Museveni came. His erstwhile physician and recent
nemesis was in a Nairobi Hospital that same weekEnd that President
Museveni came to Mindspeak. To rank 2nd to M7, is no small thing.

Let me track back to the world of advertising. ScanGroup has been a
consolidator extraordinaire. Bharat used his share like a currency,
with which to buy out many 'mom and pop' Operators. He created scale.
His game plan was modelled on WPP's, who did the very same thing
except on a bigger canvas. This Year, I have met the CEOs of Coca Cola
and Dow Chemical in London amongst many others here in Nairobi. The
global multinationals have discovered Africa in a big way. They are
seeking to increase their mindshare in 1b [2b in 2050] Africans'
minds. This is a rising tide and Bharat has his surf board and in my
mind's eye, I see him on the crest of a wave.

By the way [and no offence to anyone] but his dinner invitation is
surely the most valuable in Nairobi. He is an epicurean, his dinner
table is worthy of three Michelin Stars. I had a wonderful holiday in
California some years ago. We hired a car and drove along California's
Pacific Coast Highway, which is an exhilirating drive. Bharat is the
sort of fellow with whom I think i would have a great deal of fun,
driving along such a Road, the top down, the wind in our hair [ok,
his]. Today ScanGroup is looking to open in Nigeria, Angola,
Mozambique. These are not shallow waters. I reckon he can grow
ScanGroup another five times from here. He is in pole position.

#Mindspeak TrendsMap
http://p.twimg.com/AtzqrQzCMAMCRD9.png

@BharatThakrar has this Tattoo thing going Twitpic
http://www.twitpic.com/9qv9wl

The counter recorded a single trade of 1,000 shares in mid-morning
trade at a price of Sh20 per share from the listing level of Sh14 but
later settled for an average price of Sh16.15.

Conclusions

The 1,000 shares traded at 20.00 is equivalent to $229.8 and hence irrelevant.

The shilling fell as low as 87.75 to the dollar at 0735 GMT, the
lowest level since January 12 when it touched 87.90, and down from
Wednesday's close of 86.70/90.The shilling, which is down 2.6 percent
the year to date, has depreciated 2.3 percent this week alone.

sharper-than-expected fall in inflation in May, to 12.22 percent from
13.06 percent in April

Conclusions

It remains a Positive Outcome in the context of a Rampant Dollar.

Pullbacks to remain shallow and this one looks complete.

The NSE20 rallied 24.78 points to close at 3650.85. The NSE20 is
+13.884% in 2012 and only 1.564% beneath its 10 Month Closing High
from this Month. I expect Pull Backs to remain shallow as recently
witnessed and believe the Bull Move remains intact.
The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.33 points to close at 78.48.
Market Cap was 1.005193 Trillion versus 1.001682 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was 494.452m and 71.72% of that Volume was transacted
in Safaricom and EABL both of which closed unchanged.
BAT closed at a Fresh All Time High +57.317% in 2012 as did Limuru Tea
which is +35.82% in 2012.
The Kenya Shilling traded an Intra Day low of 87.90 then rallied  to
an Intra Day High of 85.349 and was last trading at 86.197. Market
Players said the central bank sold dollars "aggressively" as per
Reuters. The Recent Volatility in the Shilling has been driven by the
darkening Macro BackDrop and a Violent Dollar Rally, which I think
caught Market Participants' Attention this week.

Limuru Tea rallied 2.1978% to close at 465.00 on 1,000 shares. This is
a Fresh All Time Closing High. There have been a Sequence of All Time
Closing Highs in 2012 and Limuru Tea is +35.82% in 2012. Limuru Tea
trades on a Trailing PE of 13.798. Limuru Real Estate Values are what
is exciting the share Price. Limuru Tea trades at an egregious
Discount to the Net Asset Value.

Limuru Tea share Price Data here +35.82% 2012 Record Closing High
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTA%3D

Sasini Tea and Coffee firmed 2.419% to close at 12.70 and traded 24,100 shares.

SAFARICOM

shares volume 63,018,800
total turnover  205,055,760
Closing Price 3.25 Unchanged
high price 3.30
low price 3.20
last price 3.25

Conclusions

Safaricom traded its highest Volume Session in 2012 to close unchanged
at 3.25 with 63.018m shares worth 205.055m changing hands during the
Session. Safaricom reported FY Profit After Tax PAT of 12.63b -4.04%
but the H2 Earnings per Share was 120% higher than H1. Safaricom has
closed for the 3rd consecutive session at 3.25 and sits 7.1428% below
its 2012 and 10 Month Closing High of 3.50 a level struck on May 7th
and May 17th through May 21st. Safaricom is +10.169% in 2012. The H2
Rebound i feel justifies a move to 4.00.

Safaricom share price Data FY Earnings here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTU%3D

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           3.25
Total Shares Issued:          40000000000.00
Market Capitalization:        130,000,000,000
EPS:             0.32
PE:                 10.156

LongHorn Kenya was high ticked 9.907% to close at 17.75 and traded 600
shares. We are in a Process of Price Discovery but the last 2 Sessions
[very low Volumes] are actually irrelevant to that Discovery Process.

Access Kenya rallied 7.216% to close at 5.20 and traded 867,400
shares. Access Kenya has rallied 10.638% over the last 4 weeks as the
Market digested the News that The Somens were Big Buyers of their
Equity End 2011.

Uchumi rallied 1.724% to close at 17.40 and traded 550,400 shares.
Uchumi is the best Performer in 2012 at the Nairobi Securities
Exchange and is +125.97% in 2012. Uchumi has corrected 10.07% off a 6+
Year Closing High of 19.35 from May 23rd This Year.

Uchumi share Price Data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTM%3D

Kenya Airways firmed 1.346% to close at 15.05 and traded 36,700 shares.

ScanGroup was low ticked 6.422% to close at 51.00 and traded just
1,600 shares. ScanGroup rallied rallied 6.86% yesterday on heavy
Volume.

CMC Holdings remains suspended but released H1 Earnings yesterday
where H1 PBT increased +203.78% through March 2012. CMC booked NET FX
Gains of 450.28m versus a Loss of 106.401m last time. Units Sold 1163
Versus 1202. These Results were better than Consensus Expectations.

Kenya Commercial Bank traded 4th. KCB firmed 1.0989% to close at 23.00
and traded a 22.75-23.25 range and 933,800 shares. There was Buy Side
Demand at the Finish line for 400% of the Total Volume traded during
the Session. KCB has delivered a 47.4777% Return in 2012 when the
final Dividend is factored in. This Rally in 2012 has been on Volumes
which rank at 10 Year Highs.

Kenya Commercial Bank share Price Data FY Earnings here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D

CFC StanBic rallied 5.389% to close at 44.00 where 11,700 shares were traded.
Equity Bank traded 3rd. Equity Bank closed unchanged at 21.00 and
traded 1.519m shares worth 31.969m. Equity Bank is +27.659% in 2012.
Barclays Bank firmed 1.5625% to close at 13.00 and traded 1.17m shares.
StanChart ticked 1.704% higher to close at 179.00 and traded 13,000 shares.
COOP Bank eased 0.76% to close at 13.05 and traded 331,900 shares.

Centum eased 1.01% to close at 14.60 and traded 705,200 shares.

EABL traded 2nd. EABL closed unchanged at 218.00 and traded 686,100
shares worth 149.568m. EABL sits 0.4566% beneath its all time Closing
High from May 22nd this Year and is +26.74418% in 2012.

EABL share price data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzQ%3D

BAT was high ticked 7.142% to close at 360.00 on 100 shares. This is a
Fresh All Time Closing High. BAT has returned 57.317% in 2012.

BAT share Price Data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mjk%3D

BOC Kenya firmed 5.504% to close at 115.00 and traded 3,000 shares.

Mumias Sugar firmed 1.78% to close at 5.70 and traded 697,400 shares.

Eveready did not trade the day after releasing H1 Earnings where H1
PBT increased +192.729%. There were 64m Shillings of Exchange Gains
which assisted that high beta Turnaround.

KenGen eased 1.25% to close at 7.90 and traded 558,400 shares.
KPLC closed unchanged at 14.55 and traded 621,400 shares.