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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 13th of February 2015
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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#MindSpeak ''The World and Africa'' with @alykhansatchu @InterConNairobi @YouTube 31st Jan 2015
Africa


I attended the First Half Earnings Release from EABL today Details are
below @Diageo_News

We will publish my Interview with the Group MD Charles Ireland early next week

read more




@alykhansatchu EABL first half Earnings @serenahotels @Diageo_News @NSEKenya
Africa


Macro Thoughts

The Dollar Sell-Off is a Head Fake

Home Thoughts

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My Favourite Robert Frank Photograph remains
Africa


Jack Kerouac described this Photograph as follows

In his introduction to The Americans, Kerouac describes this
photograph as "a long shot of night road arrowing forlorn into
immensities and flat of impossible-to-believe America in New Mexico
under the prisoner's moon."

“the only people for me are the mad ones, the ones who are mad to
live, mad to talk, mad to be saved, desirous of everything at the same
time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing, but burn,
burn, burn like fabulous yellow roman candles exploding like spiders
across the stars.”
― Jack Kerouac, On the Road

“There was nowhere to go but everywhere, so just keep on rolling under
the stars.”
― Jack Kerouac, On the Road

“The air was soft, the stars so fine, the promise of every cobbled
alley so great, that I thought I was in a dream.”
― Jack Kerouac, On the Road:

“What is that feeling when you're driving away from people and they
recede on the plain till you see their specks dispersing? - it's the
too-huge world vaulting us, and it's good-bye. But we lean forward to
the next crazy venture beneath the skies.”
― Jack Kerouac, On the Road

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7 JAN 13 :: :On the Road
Africa


My Christmas holiday ritual is to jump into a car and take the family
down to the Coast. The Nairobi-Mombasa road arrows ‘into immensities
and is ‘impossible-to- believe.’ It retains a near mystical hold on my
imagination and connects me to my childhood and beyond.

Dad used to once own an Alfa Romeo [of which there were only three
then in the country] and my pilgrimage along that road started then,
when we used to come from Mombasa. Now, of course, we set off from
Nairobi but the road still has its hold. The landmarks still reach out
to me.

This time we were swarmed by doves near Emali which was breathtaking.
There is still the eerie and de- serted very Oscar Niemeyer building
which might have been a petrol station with a restaurant. We stopped
at Makindu which is like being teleported to Amritsar and on New Years
day was packed to the rafters.

We always stop at Mackinnon road where there is a shrine which houses
the tomb of Seyyid Baghali, a Pun- jabi foreman at the time of the
building of the railway who was renowned for his strength.

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Kiev’s Bloody War Is Backfiring
Law & Politics


Poroshenko’s military mobilization is due not only to numerous
setbacks in the east – Ukrainian troops are being pushed back on all
fronts by highly motivated rebels defending their own towns and
villages – but also because thousands are deserting, throwing down
their arms and fleeing to Russia. In response, the Ukrainian
parliament has passed a law authorizing local commanders to shoot
deserters on the spot.

Conclusions

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(From left) Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier of Germany, Chancellor Merkel, President Hollande, and Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius of France make a statement to the media following peace talks on Feb. 12, 2015 in Minsk, Belarus.
Law & Politics


Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, whose country was
invaded by Russia in 2008, revealed to an audience of Ukrainians what
Vladimir Putin thought of their nation.

“I had 36 meetings with Putin,” Saakashvili said in a visit to the
Ukrainian city of Lviv in August, five months after the annexation of
Crimea. “At almost each one he repeated that Ukraine is not a real
state but Russian territory. He will go as far as he is allowed.”

“Putin has much more at stake,” said Dmitri Trenin, director of the
Moscow Carnegie Center. “Putin’s will and Russia’s willingness to
suffer for a cause is his asset.”

@FortuneMagazine  Eurozone, Greece still deadlocked (despite killer
fashion statements)

pic.twitter.com/YZe0P7i66K

Saudi Arabia's Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef (L) arrives
with his uncle King Salman (R) to greet U.S. President Barack Obama at
King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, January 27, 2015.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/12/us-saudi-succession-sudoku-insight-idUSKBN0LG0F920150212

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1427
Dollar Index 94.01
Japan Yen 118.74
Swiss Franc 0.9280
Pound 1.5409
Aussie 0.7776
India Rupee 62.095
South Korea Won 1098.05
Brazil Real 2.8206
Egypt Pound 7.6272
South Africa Rand  11.7317

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''That you can simply declare a mineral strategic at a Minister’s discretion is a worrying proposition to the mining companies” Daily Maverick
Africa


“Look, government is sovereign and can enact what it likes but the
point is investors vote with their feet. They decide ‘are we going to
invest here or in Mozambique or Namibia?’ That you can simply declare
a mineral strategic at a Minister’s discretion is a worrying
proposition to the mining companies”

read more



Members of Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) (in red) clash with security officials after being ordered out of the chamber during President Jacob Zuma's State of the Nation address in parliament in Cape Town February 12, 2015.
Africa


Zuma had barely begun speaking when EFF members began interrupting,
demanding to ask the president about when he would repay part of a $23
million state-funded security upgrade of his rural home.

A clearly angry Speaker, Baleka Mbete, warned several EFF members to
sit down before ordering they be removed by security officers,
prompting a brief brawl in which several people were injured,
witnesses said.

"We have seen that we are part of a police state," Malema, whose
T-shirt was torn in the fracas, told reporters after being bundled out
of parliament in a scrum.

read more






Nigeria's central bank chief said on Thursday there was "no need to panic" about a slide in the currency @Reuters
Africa


Nigeria's central bank chief said on Thursday there was "no need to
panic" about a slide in the currency, after figures showed the bank
had been burning through more than $110 million a day in a vain
attempt to defend it.

read more


Nigeria's foreign exchange reserves fell to $33.4 billion as of Feb. 10, a drop of $1 billion over the previous 12 days as the central bank sold hard currency to try to defend a plunging naira, it said on Thursday.
Africa


19 Nov 2014 @alykhansatchu The Currency heads to 200.00. The Central
Bank does not have the Fire Power. Matters #Nigeria and the #Naira

https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/status/535032614848327680

January 21, 2015 He added that "The currency is headed to 220 ... and
Emefiele's finger in the dyke strategy is about to be overwhelmed by a
tsunami."

http://www.brecorder.com/money-a-banking/198/1144171/

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EABL reports H1 PAT +11.079% here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           326.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774976.00
Market Capitalization:        257,792,642,176
EPS:             8.83
PE:                 36.920

EABL reports Interim results

First Half Revenue 34.768b versus 31.858b +9.1342%
First Half Cost of Sales [17.657b] versus [16.127b] +9.487%
First Half Gross Profit 17.111b versus 15.731b
First Half Selling and Distribution Costs [3.188b] versus [3.047b] +4.6275%
First Half Administrative expenses [4.397b] versus [4.507b] -2.4406%
First Half other Expenses [536m] versus [50m]
First Half Operating Profit 8.990b versus 8.127b
First Half Net Finance Costs [2.187b] versus [1.923b] +13.72%
First Half Profit after Tax 4.622b versus 4.161b +11.079%
First Half Earnings Per Share 5.23 versus 4.99 +4.809%
Interim Dividend 1.50 per share unchanged
EABL borrowings +5.5b in H1

Tweets from the Earnings Release Media Briefing

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@alykhansatchu "We are trying to bring an acting like owner mindset" Charles Ireland EABL
Kenyan Economy


Conclusions

These results beat the Street Estimates.
Revenue expansion of 9.1342% is commendable [and this will get juiced
in 2015 via the Oil Price Stimulus]
They have bounced Tanzania, Kenya was soft, South Sudan Stood out.
Spirits gaining traction.

I shall leave the Final Comment to Charles Ireland a Friend and
Neighbour and sometimes has been to complain about the unruliness of
my Hedge

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Falling crude price hits exploration prospects for east Africa February 12, 2015 9:34 am @FT @KatrinaManson
Kenyan Economy


Launching a university course to train future oil executives looks
bold given the crash in global crude prices but Kenya is not counting
itself out of the energy race yet.

“Bust cycles are the time to prepare the [industry] backbone,” says
Sumayya Hassan-Athmani, chief executive of the National Oil
Corporation of Kenya, which on Tuesday launched a course to run at
Nairobi’s Strathmore University, to expand the “fairly small” pool of
oil and gas talent in Kenya.

Hopeful investors have billed east Africa as the world’s most
promising frontier for oil and gas exploration for the past 10 years
and there was good reason for their optimism: 2.3bn barrels of
recoverable oil have been discovered in Uganda and Kenya; more than 50
trillion cubic feet of natural gas in Tanzania.

But despite the first oil discovery in east Africa nine years ago,
none of it has been commercially developed for export, no
infrastructure exists to transport the waxy crude from remote drill
sites and regional oil executives are a rare species.

Now, before the region has sold a single drop of oil, the collapse in
global prices threatens the industry before it has even got going.

With exporters planning to delay production until prices rise, Kenya’s
institute of economic affairs warns that the country could lose $720m
in annual revenues for every year of delayed output.

The UK’s Tullow Oil — the most bullish of east Africa’s explorers
which dominates the hunt for oil in Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia and is
the only company to find any thus far — said on Wednesday it would
reduce its rig count in Kenya from four to one this year,
reversing
plans to ramp up discoveries and get to production point, and payday,
as fast as possible. Tullow has delayed what investors call the “final
investment decision” nearly two years, to late 2016, despite sitting
on billions of barrels of reserves. The region’s first oil exports are
now unlikely until 2020 at the earliest.

Paul McDade, Tullow’s chief operations officer, told the Financial
Times that the company plans to make “an orderly closure” but would
not reveal likely job loss figures until it first speaks to its own
workers.

“We will gradually wind them [three rigs] down throughout the year;
we’ve still allocated significant capital to Kenya [and plan to]
continue exploration at a more modest pace as you’d expect with the
oil price,” Mr McDade said.


“The oil price is affecting everybody as explorers cut back on work,”
said one oil driller.

Junior companies with licences for the region’s little-explored oil
blocks may also come unstuck by failing to meet investment commitments
required by their contracts with government.

“Investor sentiment is down and smaller guys are starting to look to
ask government for an extension to their work programmes because they
can’t afford to meet them,” said a block holder who did not want to be
named.

“There are a number of companies who have never had the amount of
money they’ve needed from day one in east Africa — a lot of smaller
companies who are just trying to look to flip the asset and sell
chunks of the licences — they’re hoping to hell that the crude price
rebounds.”

Production is also held back by the absence of any means of export.
Drawn-out talks over a regional export pipeline — for years strongly
resisted by Uganda which favoured a large domestic refinery — are only
now gathering pace.

Toyota Tsusho, the trading arm of the Japanese carmaker newly mandated
by Nairobi and Kampala as consultant for the pipeline, is expected to
deliver its assessment of twin options for a 1,300km route from
landlocked Uganda and Kenya’s remote northwest by April. One version
runs through Kenya to an as yet undeveloped port at Lamu, a proposal
favoured by Nairobi, while the second runs south across the country,
to Mombasa port, which Tullow says “could be much more cost
effective”.

Either way, the three-year building project will cost about $4bn. It
is unclear who will fund the new pipeline, particularly if low prices
persist.

Tullow says it will wait for the pipeline and has no plans to export
in piecemeal fashion in the meantime, via alternatives such as
trucking: “We’ve got to dovetail it all together . . . it means the
cash will come later.”

That is a blow for regional governments counting on oil windfalls to
boost budgets and fund multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects
including road, rail and ports.

“With the oil price drop you’re not going to see the pipeline built
[for a while]: the whole infrastructure thing might have to be
rethought a little bit,” said David Cowan, Africa economist at
Citibank.

“All these governments are going to have to rethink their resource
policy in light of a lower oil price and they haven’t done it yet.”

Conclusions

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31-DEC-2014.@TullowOilPLC and Africa Oil are hoping for a 'Hail Mary' pass. [they are not anymore]
Kenyan Economy


I am afraid its not going to happen. Oil prices will stay lower and
for longer than any prediction I have yet seen.

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17-NOV-2014 :: Dwindling Oil Fortunes Not Good For Kenya
Kenyan Economy


My concern at this moment is this: We are necessarily placing a big
bet on oil and gas and cementing our position as the pivot (the energy
conduit and route to the sea] state for this region. Now go take a
look at the price of oil.
Its been slammed from above a $100 a barrel
to below $80. There is an outside chance that we can break down to $50
a barrel. T

The share prices of the oil companies (Tullow Oil is down 45.84 per
cent since the start of the year and Africa Oil is negative 60.67 per
cent over the same period) have cratered. The markets are signaling
loud and clear that the economics have changed and how. Both Tullow
Oil and Africa Oil are exploration companies. They find the oil and
then they typically go and find a big major with deep pockets to
exploit the oil. It is imperative that we see the majors step in,
otherwise the can will get kicked down the road.

The consequential effects on our economy of the can being kicked down
the road are not good, not good at all.

Our policy-makers need to react real quick to the new normal.

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What makes Nairobi Africa's 'most intelligent' city @CNN
Kenyan Economy


For a second year in a row, Kenya's busy capital city of Nairobi has
been named the most intelligent city in Africa -- failing, however, to
make it to the world's top seven finalists.

According to the Intelligent Community Forum, "intelligent
communities" are those that have taken "conscious steps" to create an
economy that can prosper in the "broadband economy." The group has
recently released its latest rankings, recognizing the achievements of
communities that have built inclusive, prosperous economies on a basis
of information and communication technologies.

Nairobi was the only African city to appear on their shortlist of 21
hubs throughout the world for 2015.

Intelligent Community Forum co-founder Robert Bell says: "We see a
strong foundation being put into place [in Nairobi]: sensible,
pro-growth government policy, a more diversified economy, and an
innovation ecosystem of startups, international companies and
universities.

"Nairobi certainly has the opportunity to build an exciting future for
its citizens, businesses and institutions."

The Kenyan capital, however, didn't make it to the next round that
will see seven communities around the world contesting in June for the
2015 Intelligent Community of the Year award -- in alphabetical order,
the 2015 Top7 Intelligent Communities were Arlington County (U.S.),
Columbus, (U.S.), Ipswich (Australia), Mitchell (U.S.), New Taipei
City (Taiwan), Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) and Surrey (Canada).

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01-FEB-2012 :: My Extraordinary Experience At The @NorfolkFairmont Mara' Part 1
Kenyan Economy


We were not going as far as that; only two days’ journey in the
ox-cart to a bit of El Dorado my father had been fortunate enough to
buy in the bar of the Norfolk Hotel from a man wearing an Old Etonian
tie,” so says Elspeth Huxley’s The Flame Trees of Thika which is a
beautiful and lyrical book.

Mount Kenya Safari Club in Nanyuki (founded 1959) became a mecca for
the international jet set. The property sits on the slopes of Mt
Kenya. I have sat at the bar and half expected William Holden or Adnan
Khashoggi to pop in. My most intense memory is of discovering a
complete film studio on the grounds, and walking around in the evening
light alone.

However, this time I was set to visit the Fairmont Mara Safari Club.

There are two Africas now. The average age in Sub African Africa is
20. These folks are all connected, surfing the now in a way that is
breathtaking. I work not more than 10 minutes walk from the Norfolk.
It is urban, highly aspirational, tech savvy (after all, Kenya was the
laboratory that gave birth to the mobile money sensation M-Pesa], it’s
a hub. The traffic can be frightful but it’s on the move. Nairobi has
an edginess which can become very intense.
And as the year was ending,
I really wanted to step off the train. I wanted to feel a different,
more ancient African pulse. We had been to the Fairmont Mara five
years ago. I did not take the ‘ox-cart’ but an aeroplane from Wilson.
The airport was once located on the outskirts of Nairobi but today it
is in the city. It is very retro and has a style from a bygone era,
which is to be treasured in this 21st Century of ours. I find Wilson
Airport like a magic portal to another world.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 91.547
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +5.39% 2015 [has closed at a record every
day this week]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

171.67 +1.58 +0.93%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +4.33% 2015 [4 and 1/2 month highs]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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