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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 18th of February 2015
 
Morning
Africa

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@alykhansatchu Good Morning from the 8th Floor This is #Nairobi #Kenya #Africa at 6.48 am
Africa


Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

"Life is a game, boy. Life is a game that one plays according to the rule."

Yes, sir. I know it is. I know it."

Game, my ass. Some game. If you get on the side where all the
hot-shots are, then it's a game, all right-I'll admit that. But if you
get on the other side, where there aren't any hot-shots, then what's a
game about it? Nothing. No game."
-- J.D. Salinger, The Catcher In The Rye

read more





Obama Drafted to Fight Bush's War
Law & Politics


I have been looking back over a few predictions about the Iraq War
from back in 2002 and 2003. Recall Dick Cheney: "Weeks rather than
months." Also "we will be greeted as liberators."
Paul Wolfowitz:
"There's a lot of money to pay for this. It doesn't have to be U.S.
taxpayer money. We are dealing with a country that can really finance
its own reconstruction, and relatively soon." Wolfowitz again, since
he was to my mind the most Satanic of the bunch: "It's hard to
conceive that it would take more forces to provide stability in
post-Saddam Iraq than it would take to conduct the war itself and to
secure the surrender of Saddam's security forces and his army. Hard to
imagine."


The first: "Possibly the most dire consequences would be the effect in
the region. The shared view in the region is that Iraq is principally
an obsession of the U.S. The obsession of the region, however, is the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There would be an explosion of outrage
against us. We would be seen as ignoring a key interest of the Muslim
world in order to satisfy what is seen to be a narrow American
interest."


And second: "While we hoped that popular revolt or coup would topple
Saddam, neither the U.S. nor the countries of the region wished to see
the breakup of the Iraqi state. We were concerned about the long-term
balance of power at the head of the Gulf. Trying to eliminate Saddam,
extending the ground war into an occupation of Iraq, would have
violated our guidelines about not changing objectives in midstream,
engaging in mission creep, and would have incurred incalculable human
and political costs."


A jihadist organization unlike any we've seen before that was birthed
(as al-Qaeda in Iraq) in the chaos of post-invasion Iraq around the
time when the Iraqi people, we were told, were going to be tossing
rose petals at our soldiers' feet.

Pretty good, that first one. Holds up. Noam Chomsky? A Nation
editorial? Nope. Brent Scowcroft, writing in The Wall Street Journal.

The second is a bit of a giveaway, what with that first sentence, but
the mordant irony of it is still delicious: That was Scowcroft writing
with none other than George W. Bush's father.

Conclusions


Iraq became a Blind Spot and an Obsession in the Bush the second
Administration.

In fact, what has come after Saddam after Muammar has been demonstrably worse.

read more



Saddam Hussein's Last Words: "To the Hell that is Iraq!?"
Law & Politics


 The execution fell during Eid ul-Adha, a holy day for Muslims. The
date of the execution is perhaps one of the most compromising signals
that the execution was indeed a psychological operation (PSYOP)

Background voices, which are very hard to hear, are having a
conversation in the background and someone calls someone else in the
execution chamber by "Ali" or is looking for "Ali."

Saddam Hussein: "I testify that Mohammed is the Messenger of God."

Saddam Hussein: "Oh God." [saying this in preparation, as is Middle
Eastern custom, as the noose is put around his neck]

One voice leads customary Muslim prayer (called a salvat): "May God's
blessings be upon Mohammed and his companions/household [family]."

All Voices, including Saddam Hussein, repeat the customary prayer:
"May God's blessings be upon Mohammed and his companions/household
[family]."

A group of voices: "Moqtada...Moqtada ...Moqtada." [Meaning the young
Shiite cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr] ...

Saddam with amusement: "Moqtada...Moqtada! Do you consider this
bravery?" [This can also be translated as meaning "Is this your
manhood?"]

Several individuals say several times: "To Hell [hell-fire]!" [This
can be translated as "Go to Hell!"]

Saddam Hussein mockingly replies/asks: "To the hell that is Iraq!?"


Others voices: "Long live Mohammed Baqir Al-Sadr."

Single Voice: "Please do not [stop]. The man is being executed. Please
no, please stop."

Saddam Hussein starts recitation of final Muslim prayers: "I bear
witness that there is no god but God and I testify that Mohammed is
the Messenger of God. I bear witness that there is no god but God and
I testify that Mohammed..." [Saddam Hussein is suddenly interrupted
without finishing his prayer with the opening of the trap door.]

Several Voices: "The tyrant [dictator] has collapsed!"

Other voices: "May God's blessings be upon Mohammed and his household (family)."

Single Voice: "Let him hang for eight minutes."

Many conversations continue in the background about Saddam Hussein.

read more


Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen said Germany must adjust its response to Russia's "hybrid conduct of war" in Ukraine
Law & Politics


"It's this unconventional orchestration of multi-faceted elements of a
hybrid conduct of war that's fundamentally changing the security
architecture of the continent and for which we have to consider our
response," von der Leyen said.

read more


Italy Fears ISIS Invasion From Libya @BLNadeau
Law & Politics


ROME -- Last weekend in Italy, as the threat of ISIS in Libya hit home
with a new video addressed to "the nation signed with the blood of the
cross" and the warning, "we are south of Rome,"
Italian prime minister
Matteo Renzi shuttered up the Italian embassy in Tripoli and raised
his fist with the threat of impending military action.

In fact, Renzi didn't specify exactly who would wield that military
might, and, two days later, when no one volunteered to lead the
charge, he backtracked.  "It's not the time for a military
intervention," Renzi told an Italian television station Monday night
and said the United Nations had to lead the way.  "Our proposal is to
wait for the UN Security Council. The strength of the UN is decidedly
superior to that of the radical militias."

Whether the time is right or not, there is no question that there is a
palpable tension in Italy over the ISIS threat--Libya is just 109 miles
away from the island of Lampedusa and 300 miles from Sicily--made worse
by a 64 percent increase in illegal migrant arrivals by sea since last
year.

Italy has been on ISIS's radar for quite some time.  In October, the
group dedicated the cover of its Dabiq magazine to a story called
"Reflections on the Final Crusade" about how they will conquer Rome,
complete with a photo of a black jihadist flag flying over St. Peter's
Square. "We will conquer your Rome, break your crosses, and enslave
your women, by the permission of Allah, the Exalted. If we do not
reach that time, then our children and grandchildren will reach it,
and they will sell your sons as slaves at the slave market," said the
article in Dabiq.

read more




Flock of starlings over Rome at sunset
Law & Politics


Russian President Vladimir Putin told Kiev to let its soldiers
surrender to pro-Russian rebels, who spurned a ceasefire in eastern
Ukraine and fought their way on Tuesday into the town of Debaltseve,
encircling thousands of government troops.

http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKBN0LK13520150217

"I hope that the responsible figures in the Ukrainian leadership will
not hinder soldiers in the Ukrainian army from putting down their
weapons," Putin said.


"If they aren't capable of taking that decision themselves and giving
that order, then (I hope) that they won't prosecute people who want to
save their lives and the lives of others."

Conclusions

Its a Put Up or Shut up Moment.

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1405
Dollar Index 94.11
Japan Yen 119.04
Swiss Franc 0.9356
Pound 1.5352
Aussie 0.7823
India Rupee 62.235
South Korea Won 1111.52
Brazil Real 2.8298
Egypt Pound 7.6346
South Africa Rand 11.6730

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 94.11

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

The Dollar

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29-SEP-2014 A Small Window for Sharks as Dollar Rises
World Currencies


The point I am making is that the dollar has just started going. There
will be blood in the water. There is a small window if we want to be
the sharks.

read more




09-FEB-2015 King Dollar
World Currencies


ON Friday, the United States released its typically market-moving
non-farm payroll numbers. After interrogating the released data, I
realised that the US posted the largest three-month payroll gain going
back to 1997.

That was plain another era in 1997 and I looked up the music from that
year to better anchor that period in my mind. I discovered that Toni
Braxton's 'Unbreak my heart', Biggy's 'Hypnotise' and Elton John's
'Candle in the wind' - in remembrance of the late Princess of Wales,
Diana Frances - were the big hits that year.

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1405

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more




Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold
6 month INO 1208.15 [The Top is in for the Year]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d6

Get Ready for $10 Oil @BV

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-16/oil-prices-likely-to-fall-as-supplies-rise-demand-falls?utm_content=buffer91557&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half
from their June 2014 peak of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as
low as $10 to $20. Here's why.

What is the price at which major producers chicken out and slash
output? Whatever that price is, it is much lower than the $125 a
barrel Venezuela needs to support its mismanaged economy. The same
goes for Ecuador, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and Angola.


Crude Oil 5 day Chart INO 54.05 [Got squeezed higher big yesterday]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=NYMEX_CL.J15.E

Why Oil Prices Climbed to the Highest Level This Year

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-18/why-oil-prices-climbed-to-the-highest-level-this-year

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Sudan's President claims CIA and Mossad 'stand behind' Isis and Boko Haram @Independent
Africa


Sudan's President has claimed the CIA, America's intelligence agency,
and Israel's Mossad are behind the Islamist militant groups Boko Haram
and Isis.

Omar al-Bashir used an interview with Euronews to claim there was a
connection between the American and Israeli intelligence organisations
and both extremist groups.

He spoke after Isis released a video purporting to show the beheading
of 21 Coptic Christians in Libya, an act that prompted Egypt to
respond with air strikes avenging the massacre.

Al-Bashir told the broadcaster: "I said CIA and the Mossad stand
behind these organisations; there is no Muslim who would carry out
such acts."

read more


These Amazing Maps Show the True Diversity of Africa
Africa


Africa Loses $60 Billion a Year Illegally, Report Says WSJ

http://www.wsj.com/articles/africa-loses-60-billion-a-year-illegally-report-says-1422794047

The scams range from loggers in Mozambique understating the value of
the timber to Nigerian officials who send abroad suitcases of
illegally earned cash.

read more







Nigeria spent $380 million in two days to defend the naira as foreign reserves shed 1.2 percent.
Africa


LAGOS (Reuters) - Nigeria's central bank spent $380 million in two
days to prop up its ailing naira, after it conducting special forex
interventions to shore up the local currency.


Latest data on the central bank website on Tuesday showed that
reserves fell to $32.66 billion by Feb. 16, down 1.2 percent from
$33.04 billion by Feb. 13.
Foreign reserves have fallen by 5.3 percent
from a month ago.

read more


January 21, 2015 He added that "The currency is headed to 220 ... and Emefiele's finger in the dyke strategy is about to be overwhelmed by a tsunami." @Reuters
Africa


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -17.90% 2015 [bounced +2.61% yesterday]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

28,452.60 +723.97 +2.61%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -4.86% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Angola appoints new central bank deputy governors

http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKBN0LL0TA20150217

The kwanza currency has hit all-time lows on nearly a daily basis this
year and was trading at 104.65 against the U.S. dollar at 0942 GMT.

The kwacha fell to 6.9500 against the dollar in its biggest intra-day
fall since 2011.
http://af.reuters.com/article/zambiaNews/idAFL5N0VR2RX20150217

Zambia's kwacha fell nearly 4 percent on Tuesday to an 8-month low

read more



Falling oil price adds spurt to Kenyan grassroots February 15, 2015 5:36 pm Katrina Manson in Nairobi
Kenyan Economy


"I think [the oil price drop] is going to be a massive stimulus at
grassroots," said Aly-Khan Satchu, a Kenya-based investment analyst
who thinks increased consumption due to oil price savings is likely to
boost overall GDP. "The economy outperforms when the average Joe,
who's earning not very much, has more in his pocket."

26-JAN-2015 As an importer of petroleum, the sharply reduced price
will provide a significant stimulus to our economy. It is very
'grassroots' because everyone buys fuel.

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2601.pdf

read more




Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +6.15% 2015 [closed at a record for the
last 7 Trading Sessions]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

172.90 +0.45 +0.26%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +5.69% 2015 [crossed 5,400 for the first time
since the 22nd September 2014]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

5,403.72 +46.03 +0.86%

Kakuzi has rallied a blistering +61.666% in 2015 and is at a record

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mg%3D%3D

Crown Paints has surged +48.64% this year and is at a record

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzE%3D

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

KENYAN MARKET UPDATE Mon, 16 Feb 2015 07:26:16 GMT @cnbcafrica

http://www.cnbcafrica.com/video/?bctid=4058125690001

read more


Kenya Power @KenyaPower reports H1 PBT 2014 +52.9355% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  20/-
Closing Price:           16.95
Total Shares Issued:          1951467045.00
Market Capitalization:        33,077,366,413
EPS:             3.31
PE:                 5.121

The energy company in charge of national transmission, distribution
and retail of electricity throughout Kenya.

First Half Earnings through 31st December 2014 versus through 31st December 2013

First Half total Revenue 57.913b versus 48.586b +19.1968%
First Half Total Operating Costs 49.260b versus 41.818b +17.796%
First Half Operating Profit 8.653b versus 6.768b
First Half Profit before Tax 6.408b versus 4.190b +52.9355%
First Half Profit after Tax 4.172b versus 3.013b +38.466%
First Half Earnings Per share 2.14 versus 1.54 +38.96%
Dividend 20cents unchanged

Company Commentary


Increase in Profit ''mainly attributed to increased sales and tariff review''
Electricity Revenue grew 40%
Rise in unit purchases from 4,093 GWh to 4,320 GWh +5.5%
We are confident the Company's good performance will be sustained

"To secure revenue, we are planning to introduce smart metering
systems to enhance billing accuracy for large power customers as well
as reduce overall costs," Chumo added.

Conclusions


Strong results helped by a Tariff Increase which raised the base Unit
Price in favour of KPLC a while back.
Kenya Power has already increased the base tariff by 77% which is what
has led to the significant margin improvement.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share stormed 0.734% higher to close at a record High
of 174.17 and for the 8th consecutive session.
Thats a Red hot Winning Streak of the legendary kind like Sir Stephen
Runciman's Feat in Las Vegas.
The Nairobi All Share is plus an eye-popping +6.924% in 2015.
The Move higher was verified by it being a humdinger of a session
where total volume topped a billion shillings to clock 1.077b.
The Nairobi NSE20 rallied 42.32 points to close at 5446.04 which is
less 0.5% off a more than 5 year high.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Kakuzi rallied a further +8.247% to set a Record Closing High [and for
the 3rd consecutive session] of 315.00. Kakuzi was trading at 320.00
+9.97% at the Finish. Kakuzi has now posted a blistering +75.00% Rally
in 2015.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom firmed 0.67% to close at 14.95 and traded 6.539m shares
worth 97.958m. Safaricom has rallied +6.405% and is 0.333% below a
record closing High reached in August 2014. In Fact, Safaricom was
trading through its record closing High and as high as 15.10 +1.68% at
the Finish Line. Given the Buyer versus Seller Imbalance [6.5 Buyers
for every Seller], Safaricom is set to slice through 15.00 tomorrow
like a Hot knife through Butter and set a Fresh record closing High.

TPS @Serenahotels [which issued a Full Year Profits warning yesterday]
slipped a further 3.47% making that a 2 session slide of  6.08% and I
expect that to be it. The softness in the Tourism Sector is a Known
Known.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Group was the most actively traded share at the Exchange in
what was a busy session. Equity firmed 0.93% to close at 54.00 and
traded 4.583m shares worth 247.493m. Equity Group has rallied +8.00%
Year to Date.
CO-OP Bank [which has been on an upward trajectory of late] rallied
+2.43% to close at 21.00 and was trading at 21.50 +4.88% session highs
at the Final Tape. CO-OP Bank traded 3.003m shares.

Pan Africa Insurance released a full Year Profits Warning after the
market closed citing ''unrealised mark-to-market gains on Equity
Investments'' in 2013 which did not repeat in 2014 and much lower
profits from Property Sales.

Pan Africa Insurance issues a Full Year Profits Warning here

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Pan%20Africa%20Insurance%20Holdings%20Ltd%20-%20Profit%20Warning%20Announcement.pdf

Pan Africa Insurance traded 2,800 shares at an unchanged 118.00 but of
course, this was prior to the profits warning announcement being made
public. Pan Africa Insurance is -1.666% Year to Date.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Kenya Power reported First Half Earnings through 31st December 2014
where First Half Turnover accelerated +19.1968% and First Half Profit
before Tax surged 52.9355% to 6.408b. KPLC will pay an unchanged
20cents Interim Dividend.

"To secure revenue, we are planning to introduce smart metering
systems to enhance billing accuracy for large power customers as well
as reduce overall costs," Ben Chumo said.

These were Strong results helped by a Tariff Increase a while back
which saw KPLC ratchet its base tariff higher by 77% and this was a
key driver of the margin expansion. KPLC surged 5.9% to close at a
Fresh 2015 High of 17.95 and traded a chunky block of 3.752m shares.
KPLC has now rallied +24.22% in 2015.

KenGen by contrast ticked 0.93% easier to close at 10.60. KenGen has
lagged KPLC big time in 2015 and is +2.912% versus KPLC's +24.22% over
the same period.

EABL surged +1.488% to close at a Fresh 2015 High of 341.00 and on
heavy volume action of 593,600 shares. The share price projected as
high as 344.00 +2.38% at the Finish Line. EABL has rallied +11.688% in
2015 and the First Half Earnings will further encourage the share
price to run with the Bulls.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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