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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 20th of February 2015

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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25-AUG-2014 "The markets are never wrong" @PaulKagame said

"THE markets are never wrong," President Kagame said in an interview
in Washington on August 5 at the USAfricaSummit.

There was no sharper signal delivered in Washington than those five
words that President Kagame uttered. Picking up the signal through the
noise of our world in 2014 is no easy thing.

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@alykhansatchu A Can-Do President @PaulKagame visits a Can-Do @Kenya_Chamber cc @KipronoKittony @ckirubi @JoshuaOigara

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

"Come, come, whoever you are. Wanderer, worshiper, lover of leaving.
It doesn't matter. Ours is not a caravan of despair. come, even if you
have broken your vows a thousand times. Come, yet again , come ,
come."-- Rumi

This is what You read as you enter the Mevlana's Muasoleum in Konya

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We believe you can shape serendipity [so do I]

Serendipity can be shaped. Being in the right place at the right time
is not a new concept; the catchy little phrase has been with us since
childhood. But is a fortuitous encounter that leads to a new business
contract pure luck? Are some people luckier? Does luck last?

We believe you can shape serendipity. This is a very counter-intuitive
notion. After all, most of us believe that serendipity is pure luck.
How can you shape luck? While chance is an intrinsic element of
serendipity, we believe that you can significantly alter the
probability and quality of the unexpected encounters in our lives.

Three choices determine how we shape serendipity:

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Debaltseve debacle puts Ukraine's leader in jeopardy. That suits Vladimir Putin just fine. Reuters
Law & Politics

Less than a week after negotiating the renewal of the so-called Minsk
ceasefire agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, his
soldiers have come limping out of Debaltseve, a road and rail hub in
eastern Ukraine that pro-Russian rebels were besieging even as the
talks dragged through the night.

Not only does the fierce fighting cast doubt on the chance for a
lasting truce, but it puts the Ukrainian president in an increasingly
difficult position domestically. As Ukrainians mark the first
anniversary of the bloody Maidan protest and former President Viktor
Yanukovych's disgraceful flight from power, many are asking themselves
what has been achieved. Crimea has been lost, the economy is
cratering, and more than 5,000 people have been killed in a war with
murky origins and little purpose.

Accounts coming from Debaltseve this week couldn't have been more
disparate. Poroshenko, who traveled to the war zone, insisted until
the bitter end that Debaltseve hadn't been encircled, even though
soldiers and journalists were reporting that the town's last supply
route had been turned into a gauntlet of withering enemy fire. On
Wednesday, Poroshenko said that 80 percent of the Ukrainian troops in
Debaltseve -- or almost 2,500 men by the end of the day -- had
withdrawn, with six killed and more than 100 wounded. Earlier news
reports said that as many as 8,000 Ukrainian soldiers were holed up in
the city.

"The town has practically been turned into ruins," Ilya Kiva, the
pro-Kiev deputy police chief of Donetsk region, told Ukrainskaya
Pravda. On Wednesday, Ukrainian media reported that dozens of dead
soldiers were being brought to the morgue in nearby Artemivsk.
Alexander Zakharchenko, the leader of the Donetsk rebels, said on
Thursday that more than 3,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed.
Zakharchenko himself had been injured in the leg in Debaltseve and
spoke to Russian media from his hospital bed.

Putin couldn't help but gloat even before the retreat. "Of course
losing is always bad, and it's unfortunate for the losing side,
especially if you lose to a former miner or tractor driver," the
Russian president told journalists on Tuesday. "But that's life, and
it will keep going. I don't think it's necessary to get too caught up
by it." (Incidentally, when asked about possible U.S. arms shipments
to Ukraine, Putin said that according to his information, the United
States is already delivering weapons -- and there's "nothing unusual"
about it.)

The loss of Debaltseve is so huge only because Kiev turned it into a
symbolic redoubt, said Gustav Gressel, a specialist on Eastern
European defense policy and a visiting fellow at the European Council
on Foreign Relations in Berlin. Poroshenko's biggest mistake was not
to withdraw earlier, according to Gressel. The battle for Debaltseve
is reminiscent of the futile struggle for the Donetsk airport, which
Ukrainian forces finally gave up in January after months of bitter

"It wasn't worth the effort. The strategic value was in no way
proportional to the troops put there," Gressel said. If Ukraine is
going to lead a war of attrition against a far superior enemy, he
said, it must fight tactically, avoiding vulnerable "bulges" like the
Debaltseve pocket and raising the costs for Russia's covert war.


On the ground Vladimir has hammered Kiev.

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West on a 'razor's edge' over response to Russian expansionism
Law & Politics

Britain, which along with the EU will be strongly criticised by a
House of Lords committee today for "sleep-walking into this crisis",
was drawn towards centre-stage after two Russian Bear bombers off the
coast of Cornwall - but just outside UK airspace - were met by RAF
jets scrambled from their base in Coningsby, Lincolnshire.

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In Egypt, relatives of a group of Coptic Christians allegedly murdered by ISIS militants in Libya sit inside a house after hearing the news. CREDIT PHOTOGRAPH BY MOHAMED EL-SHAHED/AFP/GETTY
Law & Politics

The release, on Sunday, of a video showing the beheading of twenty-one
Egyptian Coptic Christian workers is but the latest of the Islamic
State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS)'s documented horrors. In the video,
the executioners make clear that the workers, who were kidnapped from
Sirte, Libya, last year, were killed for purely sectarian reasons.
Aping medieval jihadists, they vow to "conquer Rome, by Allah's

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1355
Dollar Index 94.55
Japan Yen 118.65
Swiss Franc 0.9521
Pound 1.5412
Aussie 0.7837
India Rupee 62.255
South Korea Won 1112.57
Brazil Real 2.8664
Egypt Pound 7.6277
South Africa Rand 11.6403

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 94.55


Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 21,000, about
twice as much as expected, to a seasonally adjusted 283,000, offering
fresh evidence the U.S. labor market was gathering steam.


The data helped reverse expectations of a possible delay in Fed rate
hikes that arose when minutes of its last policy meeting, published on
Wednesday, showed policymakers were concerned about increasing rates
too soon.

"Although the dollar slipped on dovish Fed minutes, the market is
coming to think that the minutes are a bit stale because they don't
reflect the strong (January) payrolls data," said Osao Iizuka, chief
currency dealer at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

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09-FEB-2015 King Dollar, The Star.
World Currencies

ON Friday, the United States released its typically market-moving
non-farm payroll numbers. After interrogating the released data, I
realised that the US posted the largest three-month payroll gain going
back to 1997.

That was plain another era in 1997 and I looked up the music from that
year to better anchor that period in my mind. I discovered that Toni
Braxton's 'Unbreak my heart', Biggy's 'Hypnotise' and Elton John's
'Candle in the wind' - in remembrance of the late Princess of Wales,
Diana Frances - were the big hits that year.

In 1997, I was running a Repo desk [a section in the capital markets
divisions in investment and commercial banks] in the City of London.

The US economy was of course the only one worldwide that the
International Monetary Fund saw fit to upgrade in its January 2015
World Economic Outlook report. Earlier this year I characterised the
US economy as 'The come-back kid of 2015'.

So, the way I see it is this: Janet Yellen will hike the rate mid-year
and that is a shoe-in. Furthermore, a big headline non-farm payroll
print is entirely likely - a number big enough to put the frighteners
looks increasingly likely. Then this benign Fed theory will get
riddled with bullets.

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 6 month INO 1208.60 [2015 Top has already been seen]


Gold has lost 1.8 percent this week, on track for its fourth straight
weekly loss and the longest slump since September 2013

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A MARCH by thousands through the streets of Burundi's capital in one of the largest demonstrations in recent years following the release of a popular journalist and government critic from jail, will have given president Pierre Nkurunziza pause for thought

"I'm 50 and I have never seen such a crowd in the streets," said
Fabian, a teacher, saying the only event comparable in size he could
remember were celebrations for Burundi's first elected president
Melchior Ndadaye in 1993.

A Brazilian samba school, which is alleged to have received funding
from Equatorial Guinea, has been crowned champion of Rio de Janeiro's


@OxfamEAfrica 40% of Somalis rely on remittances to meet basic
daily needs, like food, health, education


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +6.52% 2015 [a whisker below a Fresh Record]


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 11.6403


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.6277


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +6.25% 2015


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -15.51% 2015


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -4.75% 2015


Dark times: South Africa, Ghana crises reveal how 'Africa Rising' will
look like without power


Ghana, an African economic success story which has run into headwinds,
also cut its growth forecast for this year to 3.9%, from the 4.2%
chalked up last year, as the lack of reliable power supply dented
investor confidence.

The Ghanaian opposition Wednesday led a protest against what are the
worst blackouts in a decade, hoping to politically cash in on the

Ghana accepted 470.08 million cedis ($136.25 mln) worth of bids for a
three-year bond, paying a lower than expected yield of 23.23 percent
in a heavily oversubscribed sale.

Tanzania lines up sovereign bond debut February 19, 2015 5:23 pm


Tanzania is preparing to go ahead with its sovereign bond debut
despite the prospect of turbulent elections this year and a corruption
scandal that has engulfed the energy sector and halted $500m in aid,
according to its central bank governor.

"We still have to complete the first country rating -- we hope by the
end of the fiscal year -- but the bond will come in the next fiscal
year, which starts in July -- it could be before 2016," Benno Ndulu,
Tanzania's central bank governor, told the Financial Times. He said a
potential fundraising of $1bn was an "often mentioned number, though
not firm".

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AFRICA BUSINESS-Supermarket chains vie to unlock Kenya retail market
Kenyan Economy

Analysts say the penetration of formal retail is 25-30 percent, double
that of Africa's biggest economy Nigeria. In addition, the average
value of a shopper's basket has risen 67 percent in five years to $20,
making Kenya the continent's fastest-growing retail market, say
industry executives.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros


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@Safaricomltd is +7.8291% in 2015 and at a record closing High share data here
Kenyan Economy

Interview with @BobCollymore CEO @Safaricomltd Nov 2014 @YouTube


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +7.07% 2015


Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

KASIB which is the Association of Stock Brokers had threatened to go
on strike from today but stayed that threat.

The Official Closing data has not been received as I file this so
cannot be sure if the Nairobi All Share managed to make it 10 record
closing Highs in a row in what has been a very powerful and bullish

Equity Turnover clocked over a 1b for the 2nd consecutive session
further affirming the bona fides of the bull Move.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Kakuzi kept up its Red Hot Winning Streak and firmed +1.173% to close
at a record high of 345.00. Kakuzi has closed at a record each session
this week and has rallied a blistering +91.666% in 2015.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom surged +1.32% to close at a Record Closing High [for the
second consecutive session] of 15.35 and traded shares as high as
15.50 +2.31% at the Finish Line. Safaricom traded 5.611m shares and
there were Buyers for 3x the volume traded signalling this burst
higher still has legs.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank firmed 0.847% to close at 59.50 [just 50cents
off a record closing High] and traded shares as high as 61.00 +3.38%
during the session. KCB traded 2.946m shares worth 175.888m. KCB will
release FY Earnings shortly and the Price will set new Highs around
that time if not earlier.

Equity Group firmed 0.925% to close at 54.50 and traded 890,300
shares. Equity Group is +9.00% Year to date.

Centum closed unchanged at 62.00 and traded strong volume action of
4.132m worth 256.203m. Centum is coming into 2015 off a sequence of
triple digit percentage gains in the preceding two years. Centum is
+1.63% year to date and trades on a Trailing PE of 13.656.

Jubilee Insurance rallied +1.2962% to close at 547.00 and set a fresh
record closing high. Jubilee traded 38,600 shares and has rallied
+21.555% in 2015. The Insurance Sector is seeing a surge in M and A
Activity and the Sector has been outperforming for a while now at the
Securities exchange.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL which had rallied +13.636% to a 2015 High through this morning
eased back 1.42% to close at 345.00 on heavy volume action of 797,200
shares worth 275.349m. I have a minimum Price Target of 400.00 for

KenGen ticked +0.947% better to close at 10.65 and was trading at
session highs of 10.90 +3.32%

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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February 2015

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  aly khan says:
february 23rd, 2015 at 07:09 am
H.E @PaulKagame in conversation with @kenya_chamber @RichTvAfrica @UrugwiroVillage @YouTube