21st October 2017
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 26th of February 2015
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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@alykhansatchu The view from the 8th Floor #Nairobi @JoshuaOigara @KCBGroup
Africa


We will publish our interview with Joshua Oigara post the release of
the FY Earnings as soon as tonight

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

read more


@usainbolt Goals are all about action. Goals turn dreams into reality.
Africa


The Little One said to her Mum and myself

''Can I sleep in your bed?''

And I looked at her Mum and she knew I was so happy - She has grown tall.

read more


The only dependable prediction for the outcome of the U.K.’s May 7 election is this: chaos.
Law & Politics


“If the polls are right, it’ll be a total mess,” said Rob Ford, a
politics lecturer at Manchester University. “Every single vote in
Parliament is going to need constant wheedling to get it over the
line. You could be having regular confidence votes, with games of
brinkmanship on both sides.”

Surveys from the most prolific polling company, YouGov Plc, over the
past week have shown Cameron’s Conservatives and the main opposition
Labour Party neck-and-neck at support levels between 32 percent and 34
percent, with the anti-immigration U.K. Independence Party at about 15
percent, Cameron’s Liberal Democrat coalition partners at about 8
percent and the Greens a point or so behind. There’s been little
change in that overall picture in the past few months.

read more



Decade Forecast: 2015-2025 Stratfor
Law & Politics


The world has been restructuring itself since 2008, when Russia
invaded Georgia and the subprime financial crisis struck. Three
patterns have emerged. First, the European Union entered a crisis that
it could not solve and that has increased in intensity. We predict
that the European Union will never return to its previous unity, and
if it survives it will operate in a more limited and fragmented way in
the next decade. We do not expect the free trade zone to continue to
operate without increasing protectionism. We expect Germany to suffer
severe economic reversals in the next decade and Poland to increase
its regional power as a result.

The current confrontation with Russia over Ukraine will remain a
centerpiece of the international system over the next few years, but
we do not think the Russian Federation can exist in its current form
for the entire decade. Its overwhelming dependence on energy exports
and the unreliability of expectations on pricing make it impossible
for Moscow to sustain its institutional relations across the wide
swathe of the Russian Federation. We expect Moscow's authority to
weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation
of Russia. The security of Russia's nuclear arsenal will become a
prime concern as this process accelerates later in the decade.

We have entered a period in which the decline of the nation-states
created by Europe in North Africa and the Middle East is accelerating.
Power is no longer held by the state in many countries, having
devolved to armed factions that can neither defeat others nor be
defeated. This has initiated a period of intense internal fighting.
The United States is prepared to mitigate the situation with air power
and limited forces on the ground but will not be able or willing to
impose a settlement. Turkey, whose southern border is made vulnerable
by this fighting, will be slowly drawn into the fighting. By the end
of this decade, Turkey will emerge as the major regional power, and
Turkish-Iranian competition will increase as a result.

China has completed its cycle as a high-growth, low-wage country and
has entered a new phase that is the new normal. This phase includes
much slower growth and an increasingly powerful dictatorship to
contain the divergent forces created by slow growth. China will
continue to be a major economic force but will not be the dynamic
engine of global growth it once was. That role will be taken by a new
group of highly dispersed countries we call the Post-China 16, which
includes much of Southeast Asia, East Africa and parts of Latin
America. China will not be an aggressive military force either. Japan
remains the most likely contender for the dominant position in East
Asia, both because of its geography and because of its needs as a
massive importer.

The United States will continue to be the major economic, political
and military power in the world but will be less engaged than in the
past. Its low rate of exports, its increasing energy self-reliance and
its experiences over the last decade will cause it to be increasingly
cautious about economic and military involvement in the world. It has
learned what happens to heavy exporters when customers cannot or will
not buy their products. It has learned the limits of power in trying
to pacify hostile countries. It has learned that North America is an
arena in which it can prosper with selective engagements elsewhere. It
will face major strategic threats with proportional power, but it will
not serve the role of first responder as it has in recent years.

It will be a disorderly world, with a changing of the guard in many
regions. The one constant will be the continued and maturing power of
the United States — a power that will be much less visible and that
will be utilized far less in the next decade.

Europe


The European Union will be unable to solve its fundamental problem,
which is not the eurozone, but the free trade zone. Germany is the
center of gravity of the European Union; it exports more than 50
percent of its GDP, and half of that goes to other EU countries.
Germany has created a productive capability that vastly outstrips its
ability to consume, even if the domestic economy were stimulated. It
depends on these exports to maintain economic growth, full employment
and social stability. The European Union's structures — including the
pricing of the euro and many European regulations — are designed to
facilitate this export dependency.

This has already fragmented Europe into at least two parts.
Mediterranean Europe and countries such as Germany and Austria have
completely different behavioral patterns and needs. No single policy
can suit all of Europe. This has been the core problem from the
beginning, but it has now reached an extreme point. What benefits one
part of Europe harms another.

Russia


It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current
form. Russia's failure to transform its energy revenue into a
self-sustaining economy makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations. It
has no defense against these market forces. Given the organization of
the federation, with revenue flowing to Moscow before being
distributed directly or via regional governments, the flow of
resources will also vary dramatically. This will lead to a repeat of
the Soviet Union's experience in the 1980s and Russia's in the 1990s,
in which Moscow's ability to support the national infrastructure
declined. In this case, it will cause regions to fend for themselves
by forming informal and formal autonomous entities. The economic ties
binding the Russian periphery to Moscow will fray.

The Middle East and North Africa


The Middle East — particularly the area between the Levant and Iran,
along with North Africa — is experiencing national breakdowns. By this
we mean that the nation-states established by European powers in the
19th and 20th centuries are collapsing into their constituent factions
defined by kinship, religion or shifting economic interests. In
countries like Libya, Syria and Iraq, we have seen the devolution of
the nation-state into factions that war on each other and that cross
the increasingly obsolete borders of countries.

This process follows the model of Lebanon in the 1970s and 1980s, when
the central government ceased to function and power devolved to
warring factions. The key factions could not defeat the others, nor
could they themselves be defeated. They were manipulated and supported
from the outside, as well as self-supporting. The struggle among these
factions erupted into a civil war — one that has quieted but not
ended. As power vacuums persist throughout the region, jihadist groups
will find space to operate but will be contained in the end by their
internal divisions.

This situation cannot be suppressed by outside forces. The amount of
force required and the length of deployment would outstrip the
capacity of the United States, even if dramatically expanded. Given
the situation in other parts of the world, particularly in Russia, the
United States can no longer focus exclusively on this region.

At the same time, this evolution, particularly in the Arab states
south of Turkey, represents a threat to regional stability. The United
States will act to mitigate the threat of particular factions, which
will change over time, through the use of limited force. But the
United States will not deploy multidivisional forces to the region. At
this point, most countries in the area still expect the United States
to act as the decisive force even though they witnessed the United
States fail in this role in the past decade. Nevertheless,
expectations shift more slowly than reality.

As the reality sinks in, it will emerge that, because of its location,
only one country has an overriding interest in stabilizing Syria and
Iraq, is able to act broadly — again because of its location — and has
the means to at least achieve limited success in the region. That
country is Turkey. At this point, Turkey is surrounded by conflicts in
the Arab world, in the Caucasus and in the Black Sea Basin. But Turkey
has avoided taking risks so far.

Turkey will continue to need U.S. involvement for political and
military reasons. The United States will oblige, but there will be a
price: participation in the containment of Russia. The United States
does not expect Turkey to assume a war-fighting role and does not
intend one for itself. It does, however, want a degree of cooperation
in managing the Black Sea. Turkey will not be ready for a completely
independent policy in the Middle East and will pay the price for a
U.S. relationship. That price will open the path to extending the
containment line to Georgia and Azerbaijan.

We expect the instability in the Arab world to continue through the
decade. We also expect Turkey to be drawn in to the south, inasmuch as
its fears of fighting so close to its border — and the political
outcomes of that fighting — will compel it to get involved. It will
intervene as little as possible and as slowly as possible, but it will
intervene, and its intervention will eventually increase in size and
breadth. Whatever its reluctance, Turkey cannot withstand years of
chaos across its border, and there will be no other country to carry
the burden. Iran is not in a position geographically or militarily to
perform this function, nor is Saudi Arabia. Turkey is likely to try to
build shifting coalitions ultimately reaching into North Africa to
stabilize the situation. Turkish-Iranian competition will grow with
time, but Turkey will keep its options open to work with both Iran and
Saudi Arabia as needed. Whatever the dynamic, Turkey will be at the
center of it.

East Asia

China has ceased to be a high-growth, low-wage economy. As China's
economy slows, the process of creating and organizing an economic
infrastructure to employ low-wage workers will be incremental. What
can be done quickly in a port city takes much longer in the interior.
Therefore, China has normalized its economy, as Japan did before it,
and as Taiwan and South Korea did in 1997. All massive expansions
climax, and the operations of the economies shift.

The problem for China in the next decade are the political and social
consequences of that shift. The coastal region has been built on high
growth rates and close ties with European and American consumers. As
these decline, political and social challenges emerge. At the same
time, the expectation that the interior — beyond parts of the more
urbanized Yangtze River Delta — will grow as rapidly as the coast is
being dashed. The problem for the next decade will be containing these
difficulties.

Beijing's growing dictatorial tendencies and an anti-corruption
campaign, which is actually Beijing's assertion of its power over all
of China, provide an outline of what China would like to see in the
next decade. China is following a hybrid path that will centralize
political and economic powers, assert Party primacy over the military,
and consolidate previously fragmented industries like coal and steel
amid the gradual and tepid implementation of market-oriented reforms
in state-owned enterprises and in the banking sector. It is highly
likely that a dictatorial state coupled with more modest economic
expectations will result. However, there is a less likely but still
conceivable outcome in which political interests along the coast rebel
against Beijing's policy of transferring wealth to the interior to
contain political unrest. This is not an unknown pattern in China,
and, though we do not see this as the most likely course, it should be
kept in mind. Our forecast is the imposition of a communist
dictatorship, a high degree of economic and political centralization
and increased nationalism.

China cannot easily turn nationalism into active aggression. China's
geography makes such actions on land difficult, if not impossible. The
only exception might be an attempt to take control of Russia's
maritime interests if we are correct and Russia fragments. Here, Japan
likely would challenge China. China is building a large number of
ships but has little experience in naval warfare and lacks the
experienced fleet commanders needed to challenge more experienced
navies, including the U.S. Navy.

Japan has the resources to build a significantly larger navy and a
more substantial naval tradition. In addition, Japan is heavily
dependent on imports of raw materials from Southeast Asia and the
Persian Gulf. Right now it depends on the United States to guarantee
access. But given that we are forecasting more cautious U.S.
involvement in foreign ventures and that the United States is not
dependent on imports, the reliability of the United States is in
question. Therefore, the Japanese will increase their naval power in
the coming years.

Fighting over the minor islands producing low-cost and unprofitable
energy will not be the primary issue in the region. Rather, an old
three-player game will emerge. Russia, the declining power, will
increasingly lose the ability to protect its maritime interests. The
Chinese and the Japanese will both be interested in acquiring these
and in preventing each other from having them. We forecast this as the
central, unsettled issue in the region as Russia declines and
Sino-Japanese competition increases.

Post-China Manufacturing Hubs

International capitalism requires a low-wage, high-growth region for
high rewards on risk capital. In the 1880s it was the United States,
for example. China was the most recent region, replacing Japan. No one
country can replace China, but we have noted 16 countries with a total
population of about 1.15 billion people where entry-level
manufacturing has gone after leaving China.

The map of these countries shows that they are concentrated in the
Indian Ocean Basin. Another way to look at it is that these are the
less developed countries (or regions) in Asia, East Africa and Latin
America. Our forecast is that in this next decade, many of these
countries — and perhaps some not identified — will collectively take
on the role that China had in the 1980s. This would mean that by the
end of the decade, they would be entering an intensifying period of
growth in a much wider array of products. Mexico, whose economy
exhibits potential in both low-end manufacturing and higher-end
industry in a cost-competitive environment, stands to benefit
substantially from its northern neighbor's investment and healthy
level of consumption.

The United States


The United States continues to make up more than 22 percent of the
world's economy. It continues to dominate the world's oceans and has
the only significant intercontinental military force. Since 1880, it
has been on an uninterrupted expansion of economy and power. Even the
Great Depression, in retrospect, is a minor blip. This expansion of
power is at the center of the international system, and our forecast
is that it will continue unabated.

There is no decade without pain, and even in the most perfect of
times, there is suffering. The crises that we expect in the next
decade are far from the worst seen in the past century, and they are
no worse than those we will see in the next. There is always the
expectation that what we know now as reality will define the future.
There is also the belief that our pain now is the most extraordinary
anguish that has ever been. This is simply narcissism. What we have
now will always change — usually sooner than we believe possible. The
pains we are having now are merely the normal pains of being human.
This is not a comfort, but a reality, and it is in this context that
this decade forecast should be read.

read more




Saudis ‘would let Israeli jets use their air space to attack Iran’ @timesofisrael
Law & Politics


Saudi Arabia is prepared to let Israeli fighter jets use its airspace
if it proves necessary to attack Iran’s nuclear program, an Israeli TV
station reported Tuesday, highlighting growing ties in the shadow of
Tehran’s nuclear drive.

Riyadh’s only condition is that Israel make some kind of progress in
peace talks with the Palestinians, Channel 2 reported Tuesday, citing
an unnamed senior European source.

“The Saudi authorities are completely coordinated with Israel on all
matters related to Iran,” the European official in Brussels said.

Jerusalem and Riyadh do not have diplomatic ties, but unconfirmed
reports have swirled for years of coordination between them against
the common enemy of Iran, a partnership that may ramp up should the
world powers reach a reportedly emerging deal that would allow Tehran
to continue enriching some uranium.

The report claimed the Saudi authorities had made their position clear
in various unspecified diplomatic discussions on the matter.

“The Saudis have declared their readiness for the Israeli Air Force to
overfly Saudi air space en route to attack Iran if an attack is
necessary,” the TV report said. All that they ask is “some kind of
progress” on the Palestinian issue.

Conclusions

read more


28-OCT-2013 If the pax Americana in the Middle East were a three legged stool with the US the most important leg, then Israel and Saudi Arabia are the other two legs of that stop
Law & Politics


Hussein and Hassan are going to cut through a great deal of
interference. In this situation, there are powerful vested interests
fully invested in the status quo. If the pax Americana in the Middle
East were a three legged stool with the US the most important leg,
then Israel and Saudi Arabia are the other two legs of that stool.
Neither Riyadh nor Tel Aviv are aligned with President Obama's Iranian
rapprochement and Saudi Arabia in particular has become increasingly
forthright and is even threatening its own pivot and away from the US.

read more


Remarks by the European Union’s foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini at the Chatham House, London, on Tuesday to the effect that a nuclear deal with Iran is “at hand”
Law & Politics


remarks by the European Union’s foreign policy chief Federica
Mogherini at the Chatham House, London, on Tuesday to the effect that
a nuclear deal with Iran is “at hand” are to be taken as the most
definitive indication so far at a high level that a historic
compromise between the United States and Iran could be taking shape.

@RamiAlLolah  #Iran Navy destroyed and sink a mock-up model of #USA
aircraft carrier Nimitiz during large drills in the Gulf today

pic.twitter.com/e8l2xuQpyk

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The key gimmick, dreamed up by Lady Gregory, was to roast and serve a peacock, arranged on a tray beside its full plumage
Law & Politics


It is what’s going on behind the scenes which is oh so important, but,
we cannot be privy to it.  We can however put enough data points
together to see that financial, economic and currency “war” has
already begun.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/financial-warfare-geopolitics-and-macro-economic-agendas-what-happens-behind-the-scenes/5433067

Do not wait until the media announces this, by then it will be far too
late even if timely and reported the following day!

Conclusions

read more







@business The 20 fastest-growing economies of 2015, ranked
International Trade


Investors Who Held Nerve With Greece Reap World’s Best Bond Returns

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-24/greek-investors-faith-repaid-in-world-best-returns-euro-credit

Sticking with Greek securities through the election of the
anti-austerity Syriza party a month ago -- and the turmoil of ensuing
funding negotiations -- earned investors more than double the 4.2
percent profit on Danish securities, the next-best performers,
according to Bloomberg indexes. Treasuries earned 1.2 percent in the
same period.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1353
Dollar Index 94.24
Japan Yen 118.73
Swiss Franc 0.9455
Pound 1.5534
Aussie 0.7886
India Rupee 61.875
South Korea Won 1095.99
Brazil Real 2.8749
Egypt Pound 7.6275
South Africa Rand 11.3683

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 94.24

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Prior to Tuesday’s testimony, traders saw a 51 percent chance the Fed
will raise the benchmark rate from between zero to 0.25 percent by its
September meeting, according to Fed funds futures data compiled by
Bloomberg. That’s up from 44 percent a month ago.

read more


Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1353 [My Target remains 1.000]
World Currencies


German seven-year bond yields fell below zero for the first time ever
on Thursday, as investors positioned themselves for an extended era of
cheap money ahead of the European Central Bank's looming bond-buying
scheme.

read more




@PKANgeno “@business: Saudi Arabia's oil minister says demand is coming back http://bloom.bg/1Fuh0kM ”@alykhansatchu
Commodities


Gold 6 month INO 1214.635

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d6

@ReutersJamie  Feb 18 Gold falls below $1,200 to lowest since Jan.
6. Down 4 weeks in a row, a losing streak not seen for 18 months:

pic.twitter.com/d4XXFwtOOb

read more


This is the only commodity to fall more than oil
Commodities


The price of lean hogs—a term referring to butchered pigs regardless
of paunch—has sunk 51.3% since the end of June.

Pity the pig farmer. Over the past seven months, since oil began its
precipitous decline, lean hogs were the one major benchmark commodity
to fall even further, according to the CME Group.

read more



Angola plans to borrow $10 billion in additional external debt this year, including issuing a debut $1.5 billion Eurobond, as Africa's second largest crude exporter battles with falling oil prices, two banking sources said.
Africa


Angola is hoping to get a $1 billion credit line from the World Bank
and borrow billions more from China, the sources said, after a drop in
oil prices prompted the Finance Ministry to slash $17 billion off this
year's budget.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +6.76% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

The tax rate will increase by 1 percentage point for all taxpayers
except the lowest earners, Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene said in his
first annual budget speech on Wednesday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-25/south-africa-targets-wealthy-with-first-tax-increases-since-1995

Fuel levies and duties on property sales will also rise, helping the
state raise an additional 16.8 billion rand ($1.5 billion). The tax
rate for top earners was last cut to 40 percent from 42 percent in
2002. The rate will now be 41 percent.

Nene lowered his forecast for economic growth this year to 2 percent
from 2.5 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-25/south-africa-targets-wealthy-with-first-tax-increases-since-1995

Gross domestic product expanded 1.5 percent last year, the slowest
pace since the 2009 recession, the statistics agency said on Tuesday.

South Africa's GDP expanded above forecasts by an annualised 4.1
percent quarter-on-quarter in the last three months of 2014 compared
with a revised growth of 2.1 percent in Q3, Statistics South Africa
said on Tuesday.

http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKBN0LS0S820150224

Africa's most advanced economy added 1.3 percent on an unadjusted
year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter, compared with revised growth
of 1.6 percent in the previous three months.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected quarter-on-quarter GDP
expansion of 3.7 percent and a year-on-year increase of 1 percent.

Conclusions

Oil Stimulus Boost

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 11.3783

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.6326

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +5.06% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -12.85% 2015 [but has rallied for 8
sessions through this am]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

UPDATE 1-Ghana reaches agreement with IMF on $1 bln aid deal - source

http://af.reuters.com/article/ghanaNews/idAFL5N0VZ5XM20150225

 Ghana reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
on Wednesday for a three-year aid deal worth around $1 billion aimed
at restoring fiscal stability to the West African state, a source
close to the talks told Reuters.

The deal could represent a turning point for Ghana, a stable democracy
and producer of gold, cocoa and oil whose economy lost much of its
shine since it reported a budget deficit of nearly 12 percent in 2013.

The agreement is the culmination of talks that began in September
after the government decided its own solutions to its fiscal crisis
were failing to convince investors.

"We have concluded the talks at the staff level and we're looking
forward to the Board's consideration in coming weeks," said a source
who declined to be identified. The government will submit a letter of
intent to to the board and approval is expected by April, the source
said. There were no further details.

read more


.@KCBGroup reports FY PAT 2014 +17.484% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           59.50
Total Shares Issued:          2984137017.00
Market Capitalization:        177,556,152,512
EPS:             5.63
PE:                 10.568

Kenya Commercial Bank Full Year Earnings through 31st Dec 2014 versus

through 31st Dec 2013
Full Year Total Assets 490.338324b versus 390.851579b +25.45%
Full Year Loans and Advances Net to Customers 283.732205b versus
227.721781b +24.595%
Full Year Total Interest Income 47.475715b versus 41.613398b
Full Year Total Interest Expense 11.527020b versus 8.629112b
Full Year Net Interest Income 35.948695b versus 32.984286b
Full Year Total other operating Income 22.001159b versus 17.125978b
Full Year Total Operating Income 57.949854b versus 50.110664b
Full Year Loan Loss Provision 5.058270b versus 2.905975b
Full Year Staff Costs 13.993445b versus 13.469901b
Full Year Total Operating Expenses 34.162425b versus 29.986505b
Full Year Profit before Tax 23.787429 versus 20.123759b  +18.205%
Full Year Profit after Tax 16.848862b versus 14.341382b +17.484%
Full Year Earnings Per Share 5.63 versus 4.82 +16.804%
Full Year Dividend unchanged at 2.00 - conserving cash

read more


.@KCBGroup FY 2014 Earnings Release
Kenyan Economy


26-FEB-2015 :: FY14 Investor Presentation

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/FY14%20Investor%20Presentation%20Final%2025022015.pdf

54M transactions (31.5M on alternative channels) valued at KShs.
7.8T, being 1.5 Times Kenya’s GDP
Customer numbers up 65% to 4.14M Agency Outlets up   66% to 10,102
Branches up 2% to 242
KCB Insurance Over 300% Growth
NPL has reduced significantly year on year 2013- 2014 from 8.1% to 6.3%
Kenya 81.2% of Total Revenue contribution
Cost to Income 50.2%
New Market consideration to Eastern DRC, Ethiopia and Somalia

26-FEB-2015 ::  Cautionary Statement

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/KCB%20Cautionary%20Statement.pdf

A Selection of Tweets from the Earnings Release today

read more







@alykhansatchu 11m Transactions on Mobile says @JoshuaOigara #KCB2014FYResults @KCBGroup
Kenyan Economy


Conclusions


The +25.45% expansion in Total Assets is a headline grabber and
signals the nature of the offensive Game in 2014.  These were a great
set of results. Expenses were held down with Staff costs barely higher
Year on Year.
Minimum Price Target is 66.00 near term [once the disappointment with
the unchanged dividend wears off - they are conserving cash]
My Year End Price Target is 90.00.

read more


CFC Stanbic reports FY PAT 2014 +10.9125% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           139.00
Total Shares Issued:          395321638.00
Market Capitalization:        54,949,707,682
EPS:             14.38
PE:                9.666

Full Year Earnings through 31st Dec 2014 versus through 31st Dec 2013

Full Year Loans and Advances 101.210110b versus 103.847691b -2.5398%
Intangible Assets - Goodwill 9.349759b versus 9.349759b
Full Year Total Assets 180.998985b versus 180.511797b +0.2698%
Full Year Net Interest Income 8.461945b versus 7.542114b +12.195%
Full Year Non-Interest Revenue 8.408553b versus 8.660968b -2.29%
Full Year Total Income 16.870498b versus 16.203082b
Income after Impairment charges 16.167676b versus 15.436481b
Full Year Total operating Expenses [8.467430b] versus [8.212476b] +3.1044%
Full Year Profit before Taxation 7.700246b versus 7.224005b +6.59%
Full Year Profit after Tax 5.686661b versus 5.127156b +10.9125%
Full Year EPS 14.38 versus 12.97 +10.8712%
Final dividend of 5.20 per Ordinary share

Conclusions


Actually, I met Greg Breckenbridge just as he left the Office and he
mentioned that South Sudan crimped Full Year Earnings.
Single Digit P/E - evidently played a defensive game in some ways in
2014 going by the Balance sheet which closed the Year +0.2698% Year on
Year.
Lots of bench strength and I think it remains an attractive share.

read more


Keroche Breweries of Kenya Plans Expansion, Bourse Listing
Kenyan Economy


Keroche Breweries Ltd., a Kenyan beer-maker, is expanding its
production capacity by more than 10-fold and plans to list on the
local stock exchange in the next five years, Chief Executive Officer
Tabitha Karanja said.

The company at the end of March will open a new plant at its location
in the central town of Naivasha that will increase its output volume
to 110 million liters of beer a year from 10 million liters, Karanja
said in an interview. It received a 5-billion shilling ($55-million)
loan from Barclays Bank Kenya Ltd. to help finance the work, which
Keroche will pay off by 2020 and then the company plans to start
trading shares on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, she said on
Wednesday.

The brewer wants to increase its market share to 20 percent from 5
percent, said Karanja, making inroads against Diageo Plc’s East
African Breweries Ltd., which controls almost the rest of the Kenyan
beer market and half the spirits business.

23-FEB-2015 Fuel Stimulus to Spur NSE Bullish Momentum Further

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2302.pdf

THE Nairobi All-Share Index has surged by 8.1 per cent so far in 2015,
which I am sure ranks as its best opening in any year in nearly 100
years of operations. It has closed at record closing highs for the
last 10 sessions in a row, which is a noteworthy winning streak.

The NSE20 Index has soared 6.9 per cent up this year and is at
seven-year highs. This is what a ‘bull market’ looks like; plain and
simple.

It is oftentimes said that “Bull markets have to climb a wall of
worry”, and certainly ours had to hurdle a possible” downing of tools”
by the stockbroking fraternity, who are objecting to being turned into
collection agents by the Kenya Revenue Authority in the matter of the
reintroduced Capital Gains Tax. Now, and I stand to be corrected,
there is nowhere in the world that I know of where stockbrokers
collect CGT. They do not have the 360-degree visibility. Nearly every
jurisdiction I can think of has a CGT regime, where the individual or
the corporation files their own CGT returns. Therefore, in my humble
opinion, the operationalisation of the CGT is fundamentally flawed.
There is no harm in taking a step back and revisiting how we can
better implement the tax.

Lao Tzu put it best: “Men are born soft and supple; dead they are
stiff and hard. Plants are born tender and pliant; dead, they are
brittle and dry. Thus, whoever is stiff and inflexible is a disciple
of death. Whoever is soft and yielding is a disciple of life. The hard
and stiff will be broken. The soft and supple will prevail.”

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +8.98% 2015 and at a record

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +6.96% 2015

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

read more



A Catch-22 in Kenya: Western Terrorism Alerts May Fuel Terrorism @NYTimesworld
Kenyan Economy


MOMBASA, Kenya — Every morning at the Tides Inn, a waiter trudges down
from the restaurant to the beach with a huge blackboard advertising
the daily specials — deep-fried fish and masala prawns, pepper steak
and pizza, all listed in chalk and illustrated with cute drawings.

But nobody ever comes by, not even for a gander.

Up and down the Kenyan coast, it is the same picture. Tables sit
empty, dance floors are deserted, crates of Tusker beer collect dust.
The fabled white sand beaches along Kenya’s perch on the Indian Ocean
have become ghost towns with palm trees.

“It’s the worst time anyone can remember,” said Dhiren Shah, the Tides
Inn’s owner.

Kenya’s coastal tourism is collapsing, and part of the reason — a big
part of the reason, Kenyan officials say — is Western travel warnings
issued after a round of violence last summer in a remote coastal area.
The American warning is perhaps the strictest, barring embassy
personnel from setting foot anywhere on the coast, unless special
permission is granted. It also warns tourists of possible “suicide
operations, bombings — to include car bombings — kidnappings, attacks
on civil aviation, and attacks on maritime vessels in or near Kenyan
ports.”

On a recent afternoon, Mr. Kazungu zeroed in on a heavyset mzungu
strolling down the beach who shook his head at Mr. Kazungu’s offers
and then whirled around violently, jerking both his hands up, palms
out, as if to say “Stop it!”

Mr. Kazungu walked away dejected.

“No mzungu, no money,” he said.

He then disappeared down a soft, white, deserted strip of sand that
almost anywhere else would have qualified as paradise.

read more


31-DEC-2014 :: Tourism sector will need a calm 2015 to register a rebound
Kenyan Economy


The tour- ism sector needs a 12-month period of calm before it can
recover. “Places that depend on tourism, for example, are particularly
susceptible to perceived instability’’ writes Nasim N. Taleb in the
latest edition of foreign policy in a piece titled: “The Calm Before
the Storm Why Volatility Signals Stability and Vice Versa.’’ The Key
words are “perceived instability.’’ Its all about the perception. We
live in a 24-hour world. I have yet to see the plan which bends the
perception curve.

read more




Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
Kenyan Economy


The value of land in nine of the fastest growing suburbs of Nairobi
has grown fivefold since December 2007, a new report shows.

http://www.nation.co.ke/lifestyle/DN2/Have-money-Put-it-in-urban-land-cows-gold-or-oil/-/957860/2635992/-/rik8h8z/-/index.html

The average value per acre in these crowd-pulling zones rose from
Sh32.5 million in December 2007 to Sh173.7 million in December 2014,
according to the Hass Composite Land Index, which tracks land prices
in and around Nairobi.

Treasury secretary Henry Rotich on Wednesday said that the Treasury,
the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) and the brokers had agreed that the
task of accounting for the tax be left to investors — not the market
intermediaries.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Rotich-shifts-capital-gains-tax-burden-to-NSE-investors/-/539552/2635660/-/8h77a3z/-/index.html

23-FEB-2015 Now, and I stand to be corrected, there is nowhere in the
world that I know of where stockbrokers collect CGT.

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2302.pdf

Now, and I stand to be corrected, there is nowhere in the world that I
know of where stockbrokers collect CGT. They do not have the
360-degree visibility. Nearly every jurisdiction I can think of has a
CGT regime, where the individual or the corporation files their own
CGT returns. Therefore, in my humble opinion, the opera- tionalisation
of the CGT is fundamentally flawed. There is no harm in taking a step
back and revisiting how we can better implement the tax.

Lao Tzu put it best: “Men are born soft and supple; dead they are
stiff and hard. Plants are born tender and pliant; dead, they are
brittle and dry. Thus, whoever is stiff and inflexible is a disciple
of death. Whoever is soft and yielding is a disciple of life. The hard
and stiff will be broken. The soft and supple will prevail.”

The point I am making is that ‘flogging a dead horse’ starts to denude
our bonafides. This is the 21st century; we can continuously calibrate
our position, and we must because the world is complex and fluid.

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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