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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 03rd of February 2015
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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@alykhansatchu Thanks @bonneytunya for today's @CNBCAfrica Interview KENYAN MARKET UPDATE Mon, 02 Feb 2015
Africa


Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

"The world is on fire; time is a bomb.
Ten thousand years are not enough
When so much remains to be done"
-- Jeet Thayil, Narcopolis

"Because now there's time enough not to hurry, to light the lamp and
open the window to the moon and take a moment to dream of a great and
broken city, because when the day starts its business I'll have to
stop, these are night-time tales that vanish in the sunlight like
vampire dust"
-- Jeet Thayil, Narcopolis

read more



The Trip Treatment Research into psychedelics, shut down for decades, is now yielding exciting results. @NewYorker
Africa


Psilocybin mushrooms first came to the attention of Western medicine
(and popular culture) in a fifteen-page 1957 Life article by an
amateur mycologist--and a vice-president of J. P. Morgan in New
York--named R. Gordon Wasson. In 1955, after years spent chasing down
reports of the clandestine use of magic mushrooms among indigenous
Mexicans, Wasson was introduced to them by María Sabina, a curandera--a
healer, or shaman--in southern Mexico. Wasson's awed first-person
account of his psychedelic journey during a nocturnal mushroom
ceremony inspired several scientists, including Timothy Leary, a
well-regarded psychologist doing personality research at Harvard, to
take up the study of psilocybin. After trying magic mushrooms in
Cuernavaca, in 1960, Leary conceived the Harvard Psilocybin Project,
to study the therapeutic potential of hallucinogens. His involvement
with LSD came a few years later.

In the wake of Wasson's research, Albert Hofmann experimented with
magic mushrooms in 1957. "Thirty minutes after my taking the
mushrooms, the exterior world began to undergo a strange
transformation," he wrote. "Everything assumed a Mexican character."
Hofmann proceeded to identify, isolate, and then synthesize the active
ingredient, psilocybin, the compound being used in the current
research.

read more


@France24_en Separatists in eastern Ukraine 'to mobilise 100,000 men'
Law & Politics


"All indications are that Moscow will continue to employ a mix of
military and non-military pressure against Kiev this year, to include
the use of propaganda and information operations, cyberspace
operations, covert agents, regular military personnel operating as
'volunteers,' mercenaries, para-institutional organizations, and the
threat of military intervention," he said
.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-02/islamic-state-extending-reach-cited-among-top-u-s-challenges

read more



Islamic State extremists are expanding their international footprint in the Mideast and North Africa, the U.S. military's top intelligence official said
Law & Politics


The Sunni extremist group is extending its reach beyond Iraq and Syria
using "ungoverned and under-governed areas" to establish affiliates in
Algeria, Egypt and Libya, Marine Lieutenant General Vincent Stewart,
director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said in prepared
testimony obtained in advance of a House Armed Services Committee
hearing Tuesday.

That contrasts with Obama's assertion in his State of the Union
address last month that "in Iraq and Syria, American leadership --
including our military power -- is stopping" Islamic State's advance.

read more


"we assess the conflict is trending in the Assad regime's favor," Stewart said.
Law & Politics


Even so, Assad "will continue to struggle and be unable to decisively
defeat the opposition in 2015."

read more



Secret Benghazi report reveals Hillary's Libya war push armed al Qaeda-tied terrorists
Law & Politics


"So, it's your position that your government has been trying to defend
itself against an insurrection brought about by jihadists who were
joined by gangsters, terrorists and that there's basically about 1,000
people who were joined by NATO?" Mr. Kucinich asked.

"Yes," Seif Gadhafi replied.

"You're saying that this relates to internal matters, matters internal
to the region relating of a power struggle in which they then turned
their attention to Libya to try to engulf Libya in their own desire
for increasing their power?" Mr. Kucinich asked.

"For the Qataris, they are doing this with every country, with every
country," Mr. Gadhafi said. "This is their plan, I mean in public.
This is their own agenda. I mean, it's not something hidden, or
something, you know, private. But now, we have, and plus the French
and British have also have their own agenda, you know, commercial
interests, political interests, they have their own interests. They
told us, especially the French, and the Qataris and the British: We
want those people to share the power with you, our own people, the
heads of rebels."

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1329 The euro stood steady at $1.1331 EUR= after gaining 0.5
percent overnight
Dollar Index 94.63
Japan Yen 117.14 The dollar slipped 0.2 percent to 117.25 yen JPY=
after briefly touching a two-week low of 116.64 overnight.
Swiss Franc 0.9276
Pound 1.5025
Aussie 0.7666 RBA cut its cash rate by a quarter of a point to 2.25 percent
The Aussie retreated to $0.7650 AUD=D4, lowest since May 2009.
India Rupee 61.685
South Korea Won 1100.04
Brazil Real 2.7272
Egypt Pound 7.6102
South Africa Rand 11.5374

read more



U.S. consumer spending in December weakest since 2009 @Reuters [This will reverse big]
World Currencies


"The consumer is poised to do well in early 2015. Lower gasoline
prices are going to provide a big lift to consumption," said Ryan
Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester,
Pennsylvania.

The Commerce Department said consumer spending, which accounts for
more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, fell 0.3 percent after
gaining 0.5 percent in November and 0.3 percent in October.

The drop, the largest since September 2009, reflected a decline in
spending at service stations as gasoline prices fell, as well as weak
auto receipts and weather-related softness in demand for utilities.

The spending data was included in Friday's fourth-quarter gross
domestic product report, which showed the economy growing at a 2.6
percent annual pace, with consumer spending rising at a brisk 4.3
percent rate - the fastest since 2006.

Conclusions

The Near Term Data has been softer than expected but with a $1
Trillion worth of Stimulus in their Sails - The US Consumer is going
to snap higher and hard.

Therefore, this near term softness is an opportunity to get into the Dollar.

read more





Crude Oil 5 day Chart INO 50.00 [+11% over 2 sessions]
Commodities


U.S. crude oil CLc1 was up 0.9 percent at $49.99 a barrel, already
having surged more than 10 percent over the past two sessions as some
investors bet that a bottom had been reached after a seven-month long
rout.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more


US Africa Command (AFRICOM) head General David Rodriguez called for a large-scale US-led "counterinsurgency" campaign against groups in West Africa during remarks at CSIS
Africa


The US should prepare for operations in at least four West African
countries as part of a "huge international and multinational" response
aimed at forces affiliated with Boko Haram, Rodriguez said.

AFRICOM is already preparing an "across the board response to the
threat," Rodriguez said.

Echoing recent comments from US Secretary of State John Kerry during
his visit to Lagos, Nigera that the US is ready to "do more"
militarily in Nigeria, Rodriguez called on the Nigerian government to
"let us help more and more."

read more


26-JAN-2015 The sharp underperformance in Nigeria is sending portfolio inflows that were aimed at the West of Africa to the East [Nairobi] and The South [Johannesburg]
Africa


The South [Johannesburg] had a very good run last week and it is
expected that some of Draghi's 'free money' will flow into South
Africa.

read more








Deadly car bomb explodes in Nigeria's Gombe after Jonathan rally @Reuters
Africa


A car bomb went off near a stadium in the northeastern Nigerian city
of Gombe on Monday, a few minutes after President Goodluck Jonathan
left a party rally there.

A Reuters photographer said the bomb exploded about 200 meters (220
yards) from the stadium, engulfing the car in flames and killing at
least one bystander and wounding seven.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility, although suspicion is
likely to fall on Islamist militant group Boko Haram, which has
attacked Gombe several times. On Sunday a suicide bombing near a
mosque in the market area there killed five people and wounded eight.

Nigeria is due to hold presidential elections on Feb. 14, pitting the
ruling People's Democratic Party's Jonathan against former military
ruler Muhammadu Buhari for the opposition All Progressives Congress.

read more




Street children play on abandoned aeroplanes at Goma airport in Congo. Photo: Michael Christopher Brown/Magnum
Africa


Mobutu's policies produced a brilliant flash in central Africa. For a
brief period Congo was a place of dreams. Congolese bought mansions in
Europe and fleets of luxury cars. Mobutu flew in croissants from Paris
for breakfast.

read more


.@IMFnews Executive Board Approves US$497.1 Million Stand-by Arrangement and US$191.2 Million Stand-by Credit Facility for Kenya Press Release No. 15/29 February 2, 2015
Kenyan Economy


The one-year arrangements would provide a policy anchor for continued
macroeconomic and institutional reforms, and help to mitigate the
impact of potential exogenous shocks while these reforms are being
pursued, thereby supporting continued strong growth and durable
poverty reduction.

The Executive Board's decision makes available a total of SDR 379.96
million immediately (about US$535.3 million), and the remainder in two
equal tranches upon completion of semi-annual program reviews. The
authorities plan to treat the arrangements as precautionary, and do
not intend to draw on the SBA/SCF unless external shocks lead to an
actual balance-of-payment need.
Following the Executive Board's discussion on Kenya, Mr. Naoyuki
Shinohara, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, made the
following statement:

"The Kenyan authorities' prudent macroeconomic policies and major
institutional and economic reforms of recent years have contributed to
macroeconomic stability, higher growth, and increased external
buffers. Nonetheless, the economy remains vulnerable to shocks arising
from Kenya's growing integration into global markets, security
concerns, and extreme weather events. In this context, the new
arrangements with the Fund provide a policy anchor for continued
reforms, and would mitigate the impact of shocks if they materialize,
supporting continued strong growth and poverty reduction.

"The planned scaling up of infrastructure investments under the
authorities' economic program will lift Kenya's growth trajectory by
removing bottlenecks to private sector activity and fostering regional
integration, provided public debt remains on a sustainable path. In
this regard, the authorities' commitments to containing current
spending and mobilizing additional revenue are welcome.

read more








 
 
N.S.E Today


The @IMFnews Executive Board Approved a US$497.1 Million Stand-by
Arrangement and US$191.2 Million Stand-by Credit Facility for Kenya
[Press Release No. 15/29 February 2, 2015]

The IMF made constructive comments via  Mr. Naoyuki Shinohara, Deputy
Managing Director and Acting Chair

"The planned scaling up of infrastructure investments under the
authorities' economic program will lift Kenya's growth trajectory by
removing bottlenecks to private sector activity and fostering regional
integration, provided public debt remains on a sustainable path''

The IMF predicted Kenya GDP Forecast 2013/14 would clock 5.5% 2014/15
6.1% and 2015/16  7.00%.

The Nairobi All Share rallied 0.3609% to close at 166.85. The All
Share is +2.431% in 2015.

The Nairobi NSE20 Index firmed 19.85 points to close at 5242.61. The
NSE20 is +2.54% in 2015 and outperforming the All Share for the first
time in more than 36 months.

Equity Turnover clocked 543.247m.

Equity Markets have performed well in 2015.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom firmed 0.35% to close at 14.30. Safaricom is +1.77% in 2015
and has plenty of headroom.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank firmed 0.85% to close at 59.00 and just 1.66%
below a record closing High of 60.00 from last year.

CO-OP Bank was the most actively traded share at the Securities
Exchange and rallied +2.272% to close at 20.25 and was trading session
highs of 21.00 +6.06% at the finish line and clocked better than solid
volume of 4.992m shares worth 102.298m. CO-OP Bank is +1.25% in 2015.
Equity Group traded 705,400 shares and closed unchanged at 53.50.
Equity Group is +7.00% through 2015.

Housing Finance eased 0.6535% to close at 38.00 but was trading at
39.50 +3.27% session Highs at the closing bell. HFCK retreated steeply
on the announcement of its 1 rights share for 2 held but has found its
balance again.

National Bank ran 6% higher to close at 26.50 and traded 57,200 shares.

The Insurance Sector traded firm which is to be expected after the Old
Mutual PLC swoop on a majority stake in UAP Insurance [which is not
listed, however]
CIC Insurance rallied 4.5% to close at 10.45 and traded 630,500
shares. CIC Insurance is +8.85% in 2015.
Jubilee Insurance rallied 3.24% to close at 478.00 on 3,800 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Mumias Sugar rallied 6.349% to close at 3.35 and traded 11.894m shares
worth 39.792m. Mumias Sugar has rallied a blistering +71.79% in 2015
as Investors on boarded supportive comments from the Government. The
Violence of the Bounce is informed by the steeply oversold position
last year.

Mumias Sugar share price data here +71.79% 2015

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mzg%3D

Carbacid surged 4.95% to close at 26.25 and was trading shares at
27.00 +6.93% at the Finish Line. This Bullish Move was on heavy volume
action of 1.296m shares. Carbacid is +20.896% in 2015.

EABL [where we have already received insights into their Earnings
Release via the Diageo Earnings Release last week and I thought it
constructive] ticked 0.32% lower to close at 311.00 and traded 152,000
shares.

Umeme has certainly been more active in 2015 and traded 1.996m shares
all at 20.00 and unchanged.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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