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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 10th of March 2015
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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@JMakamba Thanks @bobcollymore for hosting a fantastic dinner for me last night. @alykhansatchu @JoshuaOigara @MikeMachariaSST
Africa


very much looking forward to #Mindspeak with January Makamba this
Saturday in Dar

Macro Thoughts

King Dollar

Home Thoughts

"Let the mind beware, that though the flesh be bugged, the
circumstances of existence are pretty glorious." -- Jack Kerouac, The
Dharma Bums

"Memory is a snare, pure and simple; it alters, it subtly rearranges
the past to fit the present." -- Mario Vargas Llosa

"I am somewhat allergic to explanations that divide men and women into
frozen categories and attribute to each sex its characteristic virtues
and shortcomings."  -- Mario Vargas Llosa

read more


Modi Touring Indian Ocean to Keep China's Submarines at Bay Bloomberg
Law & Politics


 Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins a tour of three Indian Ocean
countries today as he seeks to prevent China from establishing a
military foothold in a region his nation has dominated for decades.

Modi will visit Seychelles and Mauritius before ending the trip in Sri
Lanka, the first visit by an Indian prime minister in 28 years, and
where a January election produced a new government vowing to reduce
dependence on China. During the stops, he'll look to expand military
as well as economic ties -- something that India had avoided until
recently.

India is starting to bulk up its naval forces to assert control in
waters that carry most of the world's oil trade, underscoring its
growing discomfort after a Chinese submarine docked twice at a
Chinese-built port in Sri Lanka last year. The visits fueled doubts
that China's strategy of building ports in the Indian Ocean was purely
economic.

"Modi's visit to the Indian Ocean reflects the heightened strategic
significance of these island states in Indian thinking," said David
Brewster, a specialist in Indo-Pacific security at the Australian
National University in Canberra. "India takes great exception to the
presence of extra-regional powers in the Indian Ocean and the reaction
of New Delhi to the sub visits was an indication of that."

Conclusions

read more


August 19th 2013 I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days
Law & Politics


I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days.
China's [and India's] dependence on imported crude oil is increasing
and the US' interestingly is decreasing
. I am also certain the Eastern
Seaboard of Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great
Energy Prize in the c21st.  Therefore, the control of the Indian Ocean
becomes kind of decisive and with control China can be shut down quite
quickly. A Sine qua non of President Barack Obama's pivot to Asia is
US/NATO Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.

read more






U.S. declares Venezuela a national security threat, sanctions top officials @Reuters
Law & Politics


 The United States declared Venezuela a national security threat on
Monday and ordered sanctions against seven officials from the oil-rich
country in the worst bilateral diplomatic dispute since socialist
President Nicolas Maduro took office in 2013.

U.S. President Barack Obama signed and issued the executive order,
which senior administration officials said did not target Venezuela's
energy sector or broader economy. But the move stokes tensions between
Washington and Caracas just as U.S. relations with Cuba, a longtime
U.S. foe in Latin America and key ally to Venezuela, are set to be
normalized.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro denounced the sanctions as an
attempt to topple his government. At the end of a thundering two-hour
speech, Maduro said he would seek decree powers to counter the
"imperialist" threat, and appointed one of the sanctioned officials as
the new interior minister.

read more



@NicolasMaduro Retweet @JacquelinePSUV Ante agresiones de EEUU, @NicolasMaduro pedirá poderes especiales a la AN para proteger al Pueblo #ObamaYankeeGoHome
Law & Politics


Conclusions

If The c21st Oil Warfare Specialist @BarackObama takes the Oil Price
down to $20.00 President @NicolasMaduro will be Toast, in the blink of
an Eye

read more



.@Zbig Testimony [has President @BarackObama's Ear]
Law & Politics


"I wonder how many people in this room or this very important
senatorial committee really anticipated that one day Putin would land
military personnel in Crimea and seize it. I think if anybody said
that's what he is going to do, he or she would be labeled as a
warmonger. He did it. And he got away with it. I think he's also
drawing lessons from that. And I'll tell you what my horror,
night-dream, is: that one day, I literally mean one day, he just
seizes Riga, and Talinn. Latvia and Estonia. It would literally take
him one day. There is no way they could resist. And then we will say,
how horrible, how shocking, how outrageous, but of course we can't do
anything about it. It's happened. We aren't going to assemble a fleet
in the Baltic, and then engage in amphibious landings, and then storm
ashore, like in Normandy, to take it back. We have to respond in some
larger fashion perhaps, but then there will be voices that this will
plunge us into a nuclear war."

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Euro 1.0796 Selling in the euro gathered pace through the Asian
session as a break of $1.0822 EUR= triggered stop-loss offers and took
it as deep as $1.0785, the lowest since September 2003
Dollar Index 98.09
Japan Yen 121.70 The dollar also broke higher on the yen to reach
122.02 JPY=, territory not visited since July 2007.
Swiss Franc 0.9895
Pound 1.5078
Aussie 0.7644
India Rupee 62.775
South Korea Won 1121.15  South Korean won KRW= hitting its lowest
since late August 2013
Brazil Real 3.1397 The Brazilian BRL= real led the rout, having fallen
for the sixth straight session on Monday.
Egypt Pound 7.6309
South Africa Rand 12.1709

read more


29-SEP-2014 A Small Window for Sharks as Dollar Rises
World Currencies


The point I am making is that the dollar has just started going. There
will be blood in the water. There is a small window if we want to be
the sharks.


Stanley Druckenmiller, who with George Soros bet the bank against the
Bank of England on September 16, 1992 and made off with a billion
pounds in the days when a billion was serious amount of stash said
this: "As a macro investor, my job for 30 years was to anticipate
changes in the economic trends that were not expected by others - and
therefore not yet reflected in securities prices".

"Soros has taught me that when you have tremendous conviction on a
trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig
.... As far as Soros is concerned, when you're right on something, you
can't own enough."

read more



12-JAN-2015 I think the Fed is just one headline economic print from raising interest rates.
World Currencies


A rate hike, even as small as 0.25 per cent, will be the catalyst for
a renewed surge in the dollar. The Dollar Index is headed a lot higher

- buy the dollar.

read more


09-FEB-2015 King Dollar, The Star
World Currencies


So, the way I see it is this: Janet Yellen will hike the rate mid-year
and that is a shoe-in. Furthermore, a big headline non-farm payroll
print is entirely likely - a number big enough to put the frighteners
looks increasingly likely. Then this benign Fed theory will get
riddled with bullets.

Addition, in the context of the new 21st century oil and currency
warfare and at which the erstwhile community organiser President
@BarackObama has proven so breathtakingly proficient (and because
Merkel and Hollande are evidently bailing out on the hardcore 'contain
Putin strategy, handing a brutal economic blow-back on Europe), a rate
hike, or hikes, will be serious 'shock and awe', and a possible coup
de grace.

Let me take you even further than 1997, to 1994 when then then Fed
chairman Alan Greenspan raised interest rates just a quarter point.
Within the space of an afternoon, I watched Mexico crumble. I was
running a Latin American desk then.

read more



12-JAN-2015 The euro/dollar exchange rate is headed to parity and even lower in 2015.
World Currencies


I know Goldman Sachs has a parity call for euro/dollar in 2016, but I
think the unravelling will happen in 2015 and a lot more quickly.

read more




Gold 3 month INO 1161.68 [I expect a Triple Digit Print in 2015]
Commodities


Gold XAU= fell to a three-month low around $1,159.20 an ounce

read more






The rand stumbled 0.7 percent to 12.1270 to the greenback, its softest level since early 2002, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Africa


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.6308

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +8.86% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -9.74% 2015 [+3,610 points since 13th February 2015]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3.62% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


IMF sees Zimbabwe economy weakening further in 2015 @Reuters
Africa


Zimbabwe's economy is expected to weaken further this year after
growing by 3.1 percent in 2014, the International Monetary Fund said
on Monday,
while the Zimbabwean finance minister said Harare expects
to clear its arrears to the fund in the next year.

The government forecasts growth this year of 3.2 percent, but analysts
say weak commodity prices, patchy rainfall this season and company
closures as a result of cheap imports and high interest rates will
curtail the economy's growth.

"Growth has slowed down and we expect it to weaken further in 2015,"
said Domenico Fanizza head of an IMF review team.


He told journalists that Zimbabwe had met all its targets under the
programme despite difficult economic conditions.

Zimbabwe's foreign debt is $9 billion. It makes token monthly payments
of $150,000 to clear $125 million in IMF arrears.

The fund says the government can only gain access to new finance if it
clears the arrears and presents a credible plan to clear outstanding
payments to foreign creditors.

Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa said within the next year, Zimbabwe
should be looking at paying off the arrears.

"Our intention is that by this time next year, we should be entering
the new phase of clearing our arrears," said Chinamasa at the same
press conference with Fanizza.

Fanizza said Zimbabwe was looking at ways to cut a wage bill that
takes 82 percent of total government revenues and modify investment
laws to attract foreign investors.

read more



The Uganda shilling has lost 6.7 percent against the dollar this year.
Africa


Uganda's government has asked parliament to approve an increase of
more than five percent in public spending for this financial year but
opponents said it was a campaign ploy to win votes in next year's
elections that could weaken the currency.

President Yoweri Museveni, 70, in power since 1986, is widely expected
to stand for another term but has not yet stated his intention. Extra
spending before the 2011 vote drove prices higher and sent the
currency to record lows at the time.

Amos Lugoloobi, a ruling party lawmaker who chairs parliament's budget
committee, told Reuters on Monday his group would review the request
for more funds before a vote in the assembly. Parliament is dominated
by Museveni's supporters.

He said Kampala had last week requested an additional 800 billion
shillings ($270 million) for the fiscal year which began in July,
representing a 5.3 percent increase over an original spending forecast
of 5.1 trillion shillings.

Uganda's shilling touched a new record low against the U.S. dollar of
around 2,970 on Monday, continuing a slide partly blamed on the global
strength of the greenback but mainly attributed by analysts to
concerns over increased state spending before the 2016 presidential
and parliamentary elections.

"This is money to fight Museveni's political enemies and finance his
campaigns," said Francis Mwijukye, a spokesperson for the main
opposition party, the Forum for Democratic Change.

"The shilling is already plummeting because of this recklessness," he
told Reuters. "This time the economic crisis is starting early."

Although Uganda's inflation remains low, interest rates on government
securities have recently soared on expectations that the government
will tap the markets to finance a surge in spending before the
elections.

The shilling has lost 6.7 percent against the dollar this year.

"This does not augur well for the currency and interest rates," said
Stephen Kaboyo, managing director at Alpha Capital Partners.

SABMiller has built spirits manufacturing facilities in South Sudan,
Ethiopia and Nigeria over the past year, adding to its successful
Tanzanian and its small Mozambican spirits units.

http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/retail/2015/03/10/sab-set-on-spirits-market-in-africa

"Africans drink 9l of beer per head per year, compared with a global
average of 45. So as Africa develops and levels of disposable income
rise, we expect the rate of beer consumption to grow significantly,"
Mr Bowman said.

read more


Senegal dairy firm bets the farm on cattle that roam
Africa


Africa's dairy industry produced around 17 million tonnes of products
in 2014, of which around 7 million were made from imported milk,
according to the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN), which
promotes knowledge of global dairy.

Demand for milk in Africa is expected to grow sharply in the next
decade due to population growth and rising incomes, leading to an
increase both in production and imports, said Torsten Hemme, IFCN
managing director.

read more


Tea prices have gone up by 30 per cent in the last three months @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


A kilogramme of tea at the Mombasa auction traded at $2.64 (Sh240) in
the latest sale last week, compared to a six-year low of $2.04 (Sh184)
in December last year.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 91.466

http://j.mp/5jDOot

read more






 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share snapped a profit taking streak which had seen
the All Share correct 3.289% since setting a record 25th February
2015.
The Nairobi All Share rallied 0.495% to close at 172.52.
The Nairobi NSE20 could not snap its losing streak [The NSE20 has
eased back 131 points since closing at a 7 year high March 2nd].
The NSE20 will turn higher tomorrow.
Equity Turnover popped over a billion to clock 1.343b and these are
epic turnover days at the NSE over the last 5 trading sessions.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom rallied +1.29% to close at 15.75 and traded 8.944m shares
worth 141.196m. Safaricom is +12.099% in 2015 and all set to slice
through its record closing High of 15.85. The markets are yet to price
in the ''Digation Migration'' / Disruption opportunity.

Nation Media rallied +3.82% to close 244.00 and traded shares as high
as 255.00 +8.51% during the session. Nation Media traded 106,300
shares. Nation Media is -3.04% Year to date but has bounced

ScanGroup issued a ''Cautionary announcement'' pre market Opening
referencing the ''Lapsing'' of a ''long-stop'' date re the agreement
to buy 80.4% Marc Group limited. ScanGroup closed unchanged at 48.00
on chunky volume [for ScanGroup] of 833,300 shares worth 39.986m.
ScanGroup is +6.077% in 2015.

See the Scangroup announcement here

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Scangroup%20Cautionary%20Statement.pdf



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Group was the most actively traded share at the Exchange after
reporting Full Year Earnings before the opening Bell where the Group
accelerated Full Year Group Assets +24.067% to 344.571649b and Full
Year Profit after Tax rallied +27.768%  The Final Dividend was
increased +20.00% [that decision might have been informed by KCB's
decision to leave its Full Year Dividend unchanged]. Equity Group
bagged a One-Off Gain of 1.063737b on the disposal of an associate.
Equity Group rallied +2.97% to close at 52.00 and was trading at 52.50
+3.96% at the Finish Line. Equity Group traded its highest volume
session of the year with 9.023m shares worth 469.401m.
Standard Chartered has seen a spike in volume of late and closed
unchanged at a 52 week high of 354.00 and traded 542,900 shares worth
192.717m. Standard Chartered is +5.67% in 2015 and the recent Price
and volume Action is confirming a move higher.
CO-OP Bank closed unchanged at 21.25 and traded 3.189m shares worth 67.792m.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL firmed +0.33% to regain the 300.00 Level on a closing basis. EABL
was trading session highs of 309.00 +3.34% at the Finale. EABL traded
438,300 shares worth 131.491m. EABL sits 14.285% below a 2015 High of
350.00 reached last month and will head back there. The recent Price
correction got seriously overcooked.

Mumias Sugar which rallied by the Daily Maximum yesterday [as
Investors cheered the deputy President's ''Parcours''] rallied a
further +7.177% today to close at 3.10 and make that a 2 session Spike
of +14.814%. Mumias Sugar traded 6.633m shares.

Bamburi Cement closed unchanged at 161.00 and traded 282,100 shares.

BOC Kenya was the biggest gainer at the Securities Exchange today and
bounced +8.82% to close at 148.00 and traded  8,800 shares.

KenGen eased back 5.13% to close at 11.10 on strong volume of 1.023m
shares. The Capital Call looks as if it might happen in 2015.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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