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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 06th of March 2015
 
Morning
Africa

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Macro Thoughts

The dollar index .DXY traded at 96.332, having climbed as far as
96.593 - a high not seen since September 2003.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/06/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0M204W20150306

read more


12-JAN-2015 I think the Fed is just one headline economic print from raising interest rates.
Africa


A rate hike, even as small as 0.25 per cent, will be the catalyst for
a renewed surge in the dollar. The Dollar Index is headed a lot higher
- buy the dollar.

read more




29-SEP-2014 A Small Window for Sharks as Dollar Rises
Africa

A Small Window for Sharks as Dollar Rises


http://www.twitpic.com/e1n55b

The point I am making is that the dollar has just started going. There
will be blood in the water. There is a small window if we want to be
the sharks.


Home Thoughts

read more



Marvin Gaye
Africa


Is this not just a wonderful song?

read more


Marvin Gaye - I Want You @YouTube
Africa


And I was thinking to myself that is the kind of song you play someone
at the end of an evening [obviously played it someone you felt these
sentiments for] and I think it would be as Game Over as when one
deployed Heinrich Heine [when one was younger]

And it was Mr. Richard Stokes My German Teacher at Westminster School
who gave me a love and understanding of Heine.

Bin Ich so in lieb mit dich als hat ich deine Blut getrunken.


which translated reads

I am so in Love with you its as if I have drunk your Blood


The Advantage of Heine is its intensity, urgency and frisson.

read more



@JohnKerry Covered lots of ground w counterparts from #SaudiArabia #Oman #Qatar #UAE #Bahrain #Kuwait as followup to Munich mtg.
Law & Politics


Conclusions


Iran looks a Shoe-In now.


@Zubair_Faridi87  Mar 4 PM Nawaz Sharfif on 3 day official visit to
Saudi Arabia on the invitation of King Salman #PMSaodiaVisit

pic.twitter.com/TK078R5ICr

read more





25-Aug-2014 The signal announcing this new arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of the #MH370.
Law & Politics


''For years he'd been studying the phenomenon of chaos, of which an
arrhythmic heartbeat was a perfect example''

His excellency Johan Borgstam told me the signal announcing this new
arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of the MH370. Since then
planes have been fall- ing out of the sky like flies. And the
uncertainty around MH370 and MH17 which is sharpened by the way the
story is seemingly turned on and off

read more


Lord Rothschild: 'Investors face a geopolitical situation as dangerous as any since WW2'
Law & Politics


He used his chairman's statement in the trust's 2014 annual report to
outline his concerns, saying that on top of a "difficult economic
background" investors face "a geopolitical situation perhaps as
dangerous as any we have faced since World War II".

read more


House Speaker John Boehner has scheduled a joint session of Congress in April to hear an address by Kevin Laggett, a man who is on record as having hated President Obama in high school.
Law & Politics


Boehner, who personally extended the invitation to Laggett, said that
he did not consult with the President before contacting his
high-school nemesis.

"This has nothing to do with the President," Boehner said. "Many of us
in Congress are very interested in what Mr. Laggett has to say."

According to a source who attended high school with both men,
Laggett's antipathy for the President began when Obama was chosen over
him for the post of sports editor on the school newspaper. "Kevin has
totally despised him ever since," the source said.

Reached in Honolulu, where he works as an assistant manager at
Applebee's, Laggett said that his speech to Congress would steer clear
of personal issues between him and Obama.

"I'm going to leave that stuff at the door," he said. "I'm just going
to talk about the job he's doing as President, which he's screwing up
pretty bad, in my opinion."

At the White House, the President responded testily when asked if he
intended to watch Laggett's speech. "Kevin is a tool," he said.

read more



Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1028
Dollar Index 96.33
Japan Yen 119.99
Swiss Franc 0.9730
Pound 1.5251
Aussie 0.7809
India Rupee 62.342
South Korea Won 1098.26
Brazil Real 3.0032
Egypt Pound 7.63
South Africa Rand 11.8115

The dollar index .DXY traded at 96.332, having climbed as far as
96.593 - a high not seen since September 2003.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/06/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0M204W20150306

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 96.33

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1028 [0.93 CALLING]
World Currencies


The euro fell as low as $1.1005, its lowest since September 2003.

read more




PARKOUR NO OBSTACLES Navigating the world by leaps and bounds
World Currencies


Parkour, a made-up word, cousin to the French parcours, which means
"route," is a quasi commando system of leaps, vaults, rolls, and
landings designed to help a person avoid or surmount whatever lies in
his path--a vocabulary, that is, to be employed in finding one's way
among obstacles. Parkour goes over walls, not around them; it takes
the stair rail, not the stairs. Spread mainly by videos on the
Internet, it has been embraced in Europe and the United States by
thrill seekers and martial-arts adepts, who regard it as part extreme
sport--its founder would like to see it included in the Olympics--and
part gruelling meditative pursuit. Movies like its daredevil
qualities. The movements are performed at a dead run. The more
efficient and fluid the path they define, and the more difficult and
harrowing the terrain they cross, the more elegant the performance is
considered by the discipline's practitioners.

read more


Parkour
World Currencies


A young man who practices parkour is called a traceur; a woman is a trace use.

read more


Mario Draghi
World Currencies


@nanexllc  Long-term German Bonds - BUXL  has swung from -1% to
+1.25%over an 80 minute period $GBX_F

pic.twitter.com/iWgPhf1wVx

and because of this comment

Draghi also surprised some by saying the central bank would be
prepared to buy bonds with negative yields of up to 20 basis points,
triggering a big rally in euro zone bonds.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/06/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0M204W20150306

read more


FAO global Food Price Index falls to 55-month low
Commodities


The U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization's global Food Price Index
fell to a 55-month low in February, dropping 1 percent from January
and 14 percent below its level a year earlier. Lower prices for
cereals, meat and especially sugar more than offset an increase in
milk and palm oil prices. The index averaged 179.4 points in February,
down from 181.2 points in January and 208.6 points in February 2014.

read more



Gold 6 month INO 1200.315 [Triple Digit Print in 2015]
Commodities


Spot gold was little changed at $1,198.81 an ounce by 0307 GMT, after
falling for four straight sessions to Thursday. The metal is down
about 1 percent for the week.

read more



Oil Glut Sparks Latest Dilemma: Where to Put It All @WSJ
Commodities


As storage tanks near capacity, some predict spillover will send crude
prices even lower

Conclusions

I think its going to tank again.

read more



Exclusive: Bar South Sudan leaders from transition - inquiry draft @_AfricanUnion @Reutersafrica
Africa


A much-anticipated African Union inquiry calls for South Sudan's
president and his rival to be barred from a transitional government
and for the oil-producing country to effectively be placed under AU
control, say sources and a draft of the report.


The recommendations are directly at odds with a peace deal being
negotiated that would retain Salva Kiir as president and appoint rebel
leader Riek Machar as deputy. The two are holding talks this week in
the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa on forming a unity government.

Fighting between forces loyal to Kiir and rebels allied with Machar
plunged South Sudan, the world's youngest nation, into a civil war in
December 2013. At least 10,000 people have been killed and 1.5 million
civilians displaced.

The inquiry blamed the United States, Britain and Norway for creating
"a politically unchallenged armed power" by backing a 2005 peace deal
that "ushered in an unaccountable political class".

The inquiry, led by former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, holds
Kiir and Machar responsible for the political collapse in December
2013 and "the organized massacres and the large-scale violence that
followed."

read more



Standard Bank rose as much as 6.6 percent, the biggest intraday advance since April 2009.
Africa


Full-year net income climbed to 17.9 billion rand ($1.52 billion) from
16.2 billion rand a year earlier, the bank said in a statement on
Thursday.

Customer deposits in Africa, where the 151-year-old Johannesburg-based
bank operates in 19 countries outside its home market, jumped by 22
percent in 2014, the lender said
. Bad debts at the continent's biggest
lender by assets declined, with the credit-loss ratio improving to 1
percent from 1.12 percent.

Standard Bank is involved through its investment arm in the oil and
gas industry, as well as mining, across the African continent. The
slump in the oil price, which led to drillers idling 589 rigs in the
past 12 weeks, has prompted the bank to examine the potential impact
on its business.
Stress Analysis

"If oil stays around where it is now, it's manageable, but if it goes
much lower, like to $30 a barrel, it gets complicated," Kruger said.
"We've done stress analyses. In oil and gas we're mostly advisory, we
don't lend that much. We've had some small exposures, but we've looked
at them and they're really not significant."

read more




The currency, the naira, has slumped almost 20 percent over the past six months, touching a record low of 206 per dollar in February.
Africa


Even when compared with other oil-producing nations, the declines are
stark: No other major exporter's currency is down as much in 2015.

"Nigeria is very high risk right now," Daly said after returning to
London, where he oversees $13 billion of emerging-market bonds at
Aberdeen, Europe's largest publicly traded fund manager. His only
investments left in the country are bank bonds.

After burning through $5 billion of international reserves in the
fourth quarter, policy makers tried a more heavy-handed tack to arrest
the naira's slide, imposing restrictions on Nigerians' purchases of
dollars. Those measures throttled trading in the currency market, with
daily volumes shrinking to as little as $10 million a day. Before
December, they regularly topped $300 million.

The economy is starting to sputter.

In January, the International Monetary Fund cut its 2015 forecast for
Nigerian growth to 4.8 percent. That may not seem like much of a
slowdown, but compare it to the country's average annual expansion
over the past 15 years: 9.9 percent. Nigeria has a predominantly poor,
fast-growing population (the United Nations sees it climbing to the
third-biggest in the world by 2050) that is consuming ever-greater
quantities of food staples, clothing and whatever else can be found on
store shelves. Those dynamics have fed the country's spectacular
growth rates -- figures not even matched by China.

read more


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -12.14% [I am not bullish because I now expect a new breakdown in the Price of Oil]
Africa


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3.87% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

AFRICA THE NEXT GREAT BEER FRONTIER

http://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2015/03/africa-the-next-great-beer-frontier/

Research by Canadean into the global beer market puts Africa on the
top spot, outstripping growth in the expanding Asian and Latin
American markets, which are projected to grow 4% and 3% respectively.

South Africa is by far the biggest market in Africa, with an expected
total volume of 30.9m hectolitres in 2014, followed by Nigeria with
15.2m hl and Angola with 12.8m hl.

read more


Afren's founder eyes China for a stable capital structure -FT
Africa


(Reuters) - Founder of oil producer Afren Plc , Ethelbert Cooper, is
planning to change the company's capital structure with a new
partnership involving a consortium of Chinese investors, the Financial
Times reported.

"With a different strategy and reinvigorated management there is a
chance to pull the phoenix from the ashes. So I am leading an effort
to reinvent the company as a new China Africa platform," said Cooper
to the Financial Times. (
on.ft.com/1H27bvY)

However, Cooper said, that this plan of bringing in new capital in the
form of equity, would work in the interests of Afren's bondholders and
new Chinese investors, whom he declined to name, the business daily
said.

The Sunday Times reported on March 1 that a Chinese conglomerate was
backing a $500 million bid led by Afren co-founder Bert Cooper.
(thetim.es/1AqObBr)

The African energy group has already attracted Nigerian oil and gas
players, Oando and Lekoil, who are planning to invest in Afren, the
newspaper said, citing people familiar with the matter.

Afren, which has most of its oilfields in Nigeria, defaulted on
Wednesday on its 2016 bonds as it negotiated a rescue deal with
bondholders that will dilute the interests of its shareholders.

read more



Barclays Bank Kenya reports FY PAT 2014 +10.03% Dividend hiked +42.85% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           16.30
Total Shares Issued:          5431540000.00
Market Capitalization:        88,534,102,000
EPS:             1.54
PE:                 10.58

Majority owned by the Barclays group , BBK is the elephant in the
banking sector. Majority owned by the Barclays group.

Barclays Bank reports FY Earnings through 31st December 2014 versus
through 31st December 2013

Full Year Total Assets 225.845434b versus 206.736932b +9.24%
Full Year Loans and Advances [net] to Customers 125.423371b versus
118.361911b +5.965%
Full Year Total Interest Income 22.941044b versus 21.296617b
Full Year Total Interest Expenses 3.337430b versus 2.437621b
Full Year Net Interest Income 19.603614b versus 18.858996b
Full Year Total Non Interest income 8.684874b versus 9.062943b
Full Year Total Operating Income 28.288488b versus 27.921939b
Full Year Total Operating Expenses 15.994964b versus 16.000500b
Full Year Profit Before Tax 12.293524b versus 11.921439b +3.1211%
Full Year Profit after Tax 8.387346b versus 7.622642b +10.03
Full Year Earnings Per share 1.54 versus 1.40 +10.00%
Full Year Dividend 1.00 versus 0.70 +42.85%

Conclusions


The +42.85% hike in the dividend is going to spike the price.
+5.965% Asset Base Expansion and excellent cost control.
The Network Effect is primed to kick in meaningfully

read more


Bamburi Cement reports Full Year PAT 2014 +6.26% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           159.00
Total Shares Issued:          362959275.00
Market Capitalization:        57,710,524,725
EPS:             9.80
PE:                 16.224

The largest cement manufacturing company in the region.

Full Year Results through 31st December 2014 versus through 31st December 2013
Full Year Turnover 36.029b versus 33.928b +5.831%
Full Year cost of Sales [26.683b] versus [25.411b]
Full Year Gross Profit 9.346b versus 8.517b
Full Year Other Operating costs [4.071b] versus [3.275b] +24.305%
Full Year Investment Income 349m versus 473m
Full Year other gains and Losses 253m [78m]
Full Year Finance Costs [76m] versus [121m]
Full Year Profit before Tax 5.801b versus 5.516b +5.166%
Full Year Profit after Tax 3.903b versus 3.673b +6.26%
Full Year Earnings Per Share 9.80 versus 9.55 +2.617%
Net Cash at end of year 7.644b versus 8.876b
Final Dividend 6 shillings [+6 shilling Interim]

Company Commentary


Turnover increase ''mainly as a result of improved market conditions
in Uganda, growth in the Kenyan market, in particular in the
Infrastructure segment in the latter part of the year''
Exports into inland Africa with the exception of South Sudan
Group is optimistic

Conclusions

Better than expected results given the First Half Release and snapping
a Sequence of 3 years of declining Profits

read more


Mumias Sugar reports H1 2014 EPS [0.95] versus [0.19] Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           2.70
Total Shares Issued:          1530000000.00
Market Capitalization:        4,131,000,000
EPS:             -1.77
PE:                 -1.525

First Half Earnings through 31st Dec 2014 versus through 31st Dec 2013
First Half Net Revenue 2.674878b versus 7.132846b -62.499%
First Half Cost of Sales [3.449341b] versus [5.944456b] -41.973%
First Half Gross [Loss]/Profit [761.171m] versus 1.150438b
First Half other Operating Income 69.569m versus 108.753m
First Half Marketing and Distribution costs [274.541m] versus [385.963m]
First Half Administrative Expenses [584.895m] versus [782.613m]
First half Other Operating Expenses [236.041m] versus [336.940m]
First Half Finance Costs [378.748m] versus [315.201m]
First Half Loss before Taxation [2.07890b] versus [407.351m]
First Half Loss after Taxation [1.453823b] versus [285.145m]
First Half Earnings Per share [0.95] versus [0.19] +400%

Conclusions


We all knew that it was bad. These Results might prove the Catalyst
for dealing with this situation lock, stock and Barrel.
The Share Price has this news built into it.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +5.96% 2015

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

172.28 -0.52 -0.30%

Nairobi All Share has corrected 2.946% off a record high reached on
the 25th of February and 6 sessions ago.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +5.88% 2015

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

5,411.05 -50.03 -0.92%

NSE20 has corrected 88 points off a 7 year High reached on Monday of this week.

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Special Report: As heroin trade grows, a sting in Kenya @Draz_DJ

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/05/us-kenya-drugs-specialreport-idUSKBN0M10ZJ20150305

read more




 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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