17th December 2018
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 01st of April 2016
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

read more


There are 360 degrees, so why stick to one? Zaha Hadid
Africa


Yes, I'm a feminist, because I see all women as smart, gifted and
tough. Zaha Hadid

read more





Hustlers of the world, there is one mark you cannot beat: the mark inside
Africa


“Language is a virus from outer space” ― William S. Burroughs

“Desperation is the raw material of drastic change. Only those who can
leave behind everything they have ever believed in can hope to escape.
” ― William S. Burroughs

“Every man has inside himself a parasitic being who is acting not at
all to his advantage.” ― William S. Burroughs

“Smash the control images. Smash the control machine.” ― William S. Burroughs

read more



'Not fit to lead': letter attacking Xi Jinping sparks panic in Beijing
Law & Politics


It wasn’t a very long letter - the equivalent of about 920 words in
English and it appeared only briefly on a Chinese website.

But its content was potentially incendiary. It called for president Xi
Jinping to resign.

Many China watchers initially dismissed it as a prank, as opposed to a
sign of real dissension within the ruling Communist party.

But only a few weeks later, the mysterious letter has taken on a life
of its own – largely because of the government’s outsized reaction to
it.

State security agents have detained more than two dozen people thought
linked to the letter’s distribution. They scrubbed the Chinese
internet of all search terms related to it. They have also detained
and harassed family members of exiled Chinese journalist who have
commented on the letter, and even tried to get one of those
commentaries retracted by a German newspaper.

Party leaders apparently see the letter as a real threat, some China
experts have concluded, and so they have launched a manhunt to
determine how it became an internet sensation.

“In the beginning this letter didn’t seem like much,” said Bill
Bishop, author of the Sinocism newsletter, which tracks Chinese
politics.

“But now, given the reaction, it has become much more important. They
are going after multiple people, in China and now outside of China.”

Conclusions


The Signal is in the Reaction.

read more


Obama and Erdoğan are supposed to meet today in Washington.
Law & Politics


Let’s hope President Obama skips the diplomatic language and goes
straight to the point: that any leader who jails journalists—and arms
Al Qaeda and bombs the Kurds and jails his opponents—is no friend of
the United States.

Conclusions

Other than Repression and more repression, I am no longer sure what
Erdogan is offering. And as you know I give full credence to Seymour
Hersh's story about the CW Trip-Wire that Erdogan laid for President
Obama in Syria.

read more



Chaos Outside of Turkish President Erdogan's Washington Speech FP
Law & Politics


A planned speech by the controversial Turkish leader Recep Tayyip
Erdogan descended into violence and chaos Thursday, with one
journalist physically removed from the event site by Turkish security
personnel, another kicked by a guard, and a third — a woman — thrown
to the sidewalk in front of a Washington think tank where he was to
speak.

A small group of protesters gathered across the street from the
Brookings Institute near Dupont Circle in Washington, with one holding
a large sign reading “Erdogan: War Criminal On The Loose,” while
another used a megaphone to chant that he was a “baby-killer.”

read more


Is Donald Trump Self-Destructing?
Law & Politics


This reaction didn’t just make Trump look deluded, sexist, and
cowardly—it provided his political enemies with more ammunition to use
against him.

If Trump wasn’t already in enough trouble with female voters—last
week, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that forty-seven per
cent of Republican women couldn’t imagine voting for him—he made
things even worse on Wednesday, when he told MSNBC’s Chris Matthews,
during a town-hall meeting in Wisconsin, that women who seek abortions
should be subject to “some form of punishment.”

After media outlets seized on those incendiary words, Trump issued a
written statement recanting them. It said that if Congress enacted a
ban on abortion, a policy that Trump now supports, “the doctor or any
other person performing this illegal act upon a woman would be held
legally responsible, not the woman. The woman is a victim in this case
as is the life in her womb.”

This rapid about-face only served to highlight the fact that Trump had
again presented his opponents with a gift. “Of course we shouldn’t be
talking about punishing women; we should affirm their dignity and the
incredible gift they have to bring life into the world,” Ted Cruz
said. John Kasich made similar comments. Hillary Clinton described
Trump’s initial remarks as “horrific and telling.”

Conclusions


The Issue for Trump is like it has been for all the other Republican
Hard-Core Re-iterations of the Party from Newt Gingrich to the Tea
Party. You can swing the steering wheel sharp right but to win the
Electiob  you have to consider the new Demographic Make-Up of the US
something which President @BarackObama understood. So even if Trump
gets the Republican Nomination, its going to be very hard to carry the
Country. More than anything he scores very poorly with Women.

Of course, all Bets are off if the US sees a Brussels type Attack in
the run-Up to the Election.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1389
Dollar Index 94.65
Japan Yen 112.23
Swiss Franc 0.9606
Pound 1.4357
Aussie 0.7670
India Rupee 66.338
South Korea Won 1153.84
Brazil Real 3.5918
Egypt Pound 8.8751
South Africa Rand 14.7403

The dollar headed for its worst quarterly performance since 2010

Dollar Index 1 Year Chart INO 94.602 [Key Area is just above 93.00
and is expected to hold]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d12&t=f&a=50&w=1

read more








Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold caps best quarter in a quarter of a century... prices
+$172/ounce, +16.3% What were you doing in 1990?

pic.twitter.com/pxw4zA1Y0K

Crude Oil 1 Year Chart INO 37.97

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.K16.E&v=d12&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


The Oppenheimer Blue diamond, which carries an estimate of $38 million to $45 million. Source: Christie's
Commodities


The largest fancy vivid blue diamond ever offered at auction is set to
go on sale on May 18 at Christie’s in Geneva. The 14.62-carat stone,
the "Oppenheimer Blue," is named after its previous owner, Sir Philip
Oppenheimer, whose family controlled De Beers for 80 years before
selling its 40 percent stake to Anglo American Plc for $5.1 billion in
2012. The diamond, whose “fancy vivid” designation rates it the
highest and clearest saturation color blue possible, is estimated to
sell for $38 million to $45 million.

read more


+20. Spot the difference Venezuela today looks like Zimbabwe 15 years ago Apr 2nd 2016 | CARACAS | From the print edition Economist
Emerging Markets


VISITING a supermarket in Venezuela is like entering Monty Python’s
cheese-shop sketch. “Do you have any milk?” The shop assistant shakes
her head. Sugar? No. Coffee? No. Soap? No. Cornflour? No. Cooking oil?
No. Do you in fact have any of the products that the government deems
so essential that it fixes their prices at less than what it costs to
make them? No.

This is hard cheese for the masses queuing outside in the hope that a
truck carrying something, anything, will arrive. Yesenia, a
middle-aged lady from a village near Caracas, got up at midnight, rode
a bus to the capital, started queuing at 3am and is still there at
10am. “It’s bad, standing here in the sun. I’ve had no breakfast, and
no water.” Why does she think there are such severe shortages? “Bad
administration.”

That is putting it mildly. The Venezuelan government spends like
Father Christmas after too much eggnog, subsidising everything from
rural homes to rice. It cannot pay its bills, especially since the oil
price collapsed, so it prints money.

Cash machines in Caracas spit out crisp new bills with consecutive
serial numbers. The last time your correspondent saw such a thing was
in Zimbabwe in the early 2000s. The IMF predicts that inflation will
be 720% in Venezuela this year, a figure Zimbabwe hit in 2006. By 2008
Zimbabwe was racked by hyperinflation so crippling that beggars who
were offered billion-Zimbabwe-dollar bills would frown and reject them
(see chart).

For Venezuela, the lesson is plain. If it fails to pick a better model
than Mugabenomics, things will only get worse. The Venezuelan
opposition are keen to change course. Mr Maduro’s cluelessness gives
them a chance. He says that he is tackling shortages by raising his
own chickens—and so should everyone else.

Frontier Markets

read more



MUGABE: ZIMBABWE STILL LOVES ME Newsweek
Africa


“You just go to Zimbabwe now and ask the people whether I should stand
down. They will be angry with you,” said Mugabe, according to
Zimbabwe’s state-owned Herald newspaper.

During Mugabe’s visit, which ends on Thursday, Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe pledged a 600 million yen ($5.3 million) grant to help fund
a road project in Zimbabwe and hailed Mugabe as an “iconic leader.”
The Zimbabwean head of state, however, appeared to doze off while
standing shoulder to shoulder with Abe at a press conference on
Tuesday.

read more


Congo Opposition Chooses Katumbi as Presidential Candidate
Africa


Congo scheduled to hold presidential elections in November
Katumbi seen as powerful challenger to incumbent president

A leading opposition group in the Democratic Republic of Congo named
Moise Katumbi, a former provincial governor, as its candidate for
president in elections scheduled for November.

The so-called G7 announced Katumbi’s candidacy after a meeting of the
party’s political bureau in the capital, Kinshasa, on Wednesday.
Katumbi wasn’t immediately available when Bloomberg called him seeking
comment.

“The G7 voted unanimously for Moise Katumbi to be its candidate for
president,” Olivier Kamitatu, a leader of the G7, said in a post on
his Twitter account.

Conclusions

The Likelihood of this being a smooth Process is surely very low.

read more



Businessman and Dictator Face Off as Congo Lurches Toward Abyss New York Times
Africa


Sitting in his palatial living room amid lots of marble and white
leather, Moïse Katumbi gives off an unmistakable air of being content
with his place in the world.

A former governor in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s influential
Katanga region and a flamboyantly successful tycoon, Mr. Katumbi has
money, power, the adoration of the masses, solid political skills and
a bit of an aura. He even has his own professional soccer team, the
Bulldozers.

Of 80 million Congolese, analysts say, Mr. Katumbi is best positioned
to be Congo’s next president if the election is fair and if the
current president, who faces term limits, steps down this year.

But those are two big ifs.

Once again, Congo is lurching toward a political abyss, and Mr.
Katumbi will be a crucial figure in what happens next.

Congo’s next election is supposed to be in November, and its
Constitution requires that President Joseph Kabila leave office. But
as Mr. Kabila’s counterparts across the continent have shown, to
varying degrees of success or chaos, constitutions can be tinkered
with or simply ignored.

In Congo, with dozens of armed groups and a long history of bloodshed,
any serious instability could cause the country to explode.

Mr. Katumbi said that he had tried to persuade Mr. Kabila to step
down, but that it was impossible to tell what Mr. Kabila was thinking.

“You know the president don’t talk a lot,” he said.

But sometimes his smile is a little tight. He says that Mr. Kabila’s
men recently grounded his private jet, and that security agents
followed his children to school.

He insists that he is not scared — “I’m scared only about God.” But he
is facing a government, an army and a security apparatus that is
hardening around Mr. Kabila, jailing dissenters and killing
protesters.

read more


Zuma "failed to uphold, defend and respect the constitution, chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng said during a hearing Thursday
Africa


“We are into the unknown and it’s very difficult to predict what might
happen,” Glaser said.

Conclusions


“These are political issues that are not really decided by the members
of parliament but by the leadership of the governing party,” De Vos
said before the court ruling. “Unless there’s a change inside the
party leadership and a hardening of positions against the president,
there will not be a very drastic response by the National Assembly.”

read more


Night of the generals 1ST APRIL 2016 Increasing surveillance of ANC dissidents and burglaries of journalists and activists point to paranoia at the top @Africa_Conf
Africa


A veteran of the pre-liberation African National Congress armed wing,
Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK, Spear of the Nation), General Siphiwe 'Gebuza'
Nyanda doesn't scare easily. Yet when a well armed hijacker decided on
23 March to make off with his Porsche luxury car, he didn't offer any
resistance. Nyanda survived without a scratch and the car was found
without serious damage a few hours later. Another random hijacking?
Perhaps, but it has emerged that Nyanda is the spokesman for a group
known as Senior Commanders and Commissars of the ANC's former military
wing.

Just days before the attack, this group published a memorandum highly
critical of President Jacob Zuma's style of government (AC Vol 57 No
6, Gordhan and Zuma slug it out). It ran through the familiar charge
sheet: December's damaging and arbitrary sacking of Nhlanhla Nene as
Finance Minister; the orchestrated harassment of current and previous
Finance Minister Pravin Gordhanby the Hawks, the specialist police
unit. Then the group declared its support for Mcebisi Jonas, who said
that the Gupta family had offered him the post of Finance Minister
before Zuma sacked Nene (AC Vol 55 No 11, A loyalist cabinet and Vol
57 No 4, Zupta Inc.).

Then came the coup de grâce which removed any ambiguity about the
group's intentions. The memo concluded, '…in the light of the many
challenges facing the ANC and the state, we further call for the
leadership of the ANC to urgently convene a special National
Conference.' In today's febrile political climate, the idea of a
special ANC conference would have but one aim: to sack Zuma from the
presidency, a rerun of the recall of ex-President Thabo Mbeki at the
Polokwane National Elective Conference of 2007.

'Senior ANC members are so paranoid that Number One [Zuma] is
listening to them that they prefer not to have conversations on their
cell phones,' said a former intelligence officer

Politicians across the political divide were shocked by the 2014
appointment of Mahlobo, an unknown civil servant from Mpumalanga who
was parachuted in to head the powerful SSA and who, says the SSA
website, 'was sent by the ANC to China for Political Education'. In
the past, senior ANC National Executive members, such as Lindiwe
Sisulu and Ronnie Kasrils, held the portfolio. Mahlobo worked under
Kasrils as a Director at the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry
from 2002 until Kasrils left in 2004, and for two years thereafter. He
is now seen as one of Zuma's closest lieutenants and staunch defenders
on the National Executive Committee and shielding Zuma from the
Nkandla homestead fiasco. Mhlobo has been vocal about the ANC
leadership battle.

In 2015, Mahlobo came under fire for jamming mobile telephone and
internet services during the opening of Parliament (AC Vol 56 No 4, A
rowdy state of the nation). He travels abroad regularly with Zuma and
was one of the few ministers to accompany him to Russia in 2014 to
meet President Vladimir Putin. Those meetings are understood to have
included discussions about Russia's multi-billion dollar bids for
contracts to expand South Africa's nuclear power industry, an issue of
great sensitivity to international intelligence agencies.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.07% 2016
Africa


52,250.28 -245.18 -0.47%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO [ZAR trading like
@SAPresident is on his Way] 14.7403

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Photo essay: The essence of Joburg through a photographer’s lens
Daily VOX [Wesley Use the 2nd Photo]

http://www.thedailyvox.co.za/photo-essay-essence-joburg-photographers-lens/

Kyalami Johannesburg

http://www.twitpic.com/e0d735

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +7.41% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

7,524.99 +39.93 +0.53%

read more



08-FEB-2016 Meanwhile Nigeria, the biggest economy in SSA, will surely contract in 2016
Africa


Meanwhile Nigeria, the biggest economy in SSA, will surely contract in
2016 and not least because its president is determined not to devalue
the naira. The curve of history [from Soros skinning the Bank of
England in 1992, to the Mexican peso crisis in 1994, to the Thai baht
crisis in 1998 and many more too numerous to men- tion] confirm that
maintaining an artificial foreign exchange rate is a fool’s errand and
eventually carries the risk that the breakdown spirals out of control
and can become seriously disorderly. The official naira rate is just
below 200 to the dollar but no one is holding any store by that price
and that’s why absolutely no one is putting any more money in Nigeria
because they all know when the haircut is finally imposed it’s going
to be a big one. I find it just extraordinary that such a brilliant
president would risk it all on a bet on a single number in a game of
roulette. Those are the odds.

read more



Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -11.65% 2016
Africa


25,306.22 -105.47 -0.42%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -4.16% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


Uganda crude oil pipeline should go the Tanga way, says @Total boss
Africa


Total E&P Uganda has affirmed its commitment to construct the $4
billion crude oil pipeline through Tanga despite ongoing talks between
Kenya and Uganda to have it pass through here.

The company’s general manager Adewale Fayemi said at the two-day East
Africa Oil and Gas conference in Tanzania.

“As a company, our position remains that we are going through Tanga. I
understand there are issues being discussed but our position remains
the same,” Fayemi said.

He said all available options have been carefully considered and the
firm is more interested in the Tanga route, which will be cheaper for
oil production.

Conclusions

Any which way you cut it, this is a Big Hit for Kenya's Ambitions.

read more



Therefore, the first point to note about Tanga is that it is geo-strategic.
Africa


Tanga is the most northerly seaport city of Tanzania and not that far
away from Mombasa. I have a strong conviction that the Indian Ocean
economy is set to enjoy a renaissance and that the world’s centre of
gravity is tip- ping in its direction.

read more




President Uhuru Kenyatta could not make his State of the Nation Address in Parliament for a full 30 minutes Thursday
Kenyan Economy


President Uhuru Kenyatta could not make his State of the Nation
Address in Parliament for a full 30 minutes Thursday as Orange
Democratic Movement MPs held a noisy protest in the chamber.

The MPs blew whistles, shouted and waved placards, ignoring orders
from Speaker Justin Muturi to behave with decorum.

Some had to be dragged out shouting and resisting by parliamentary orderlies.

Drama started the minute the President stood to make his speech. About
a dozen MPs jumped to their feet, blew whistles and removed placards
from their pockets.

Conclusions

CORD have obviously watched the EFF and @Julius_S_Malema 's
intervention at the Time of SA President Zuma's State of the union.See
Below

read more


Opposition disrupts Zuma's State of the Union speech Video
Kenyan Economy


However, I think the President was appraised of the possibility of
such a disruption and that whilst it was a very effective, asymmetric
response in SA [precisely because the @SAPresident is rogue] looked
like poorly conceived Theatre yesterday.

read more


Kenya's economic performance remains solid, with the growth rate expected to improve from 5.6% in 2015 to 5.9% in 2016
Kenyan Economy


Kenya’s economic performance remains solid, with the growth rate
expected to improve from 5.6% in 2015 to 5.9% in 2016, according to a
new World Bank Group economic report released today. It is projected
to rise further to 6% in 2017, the report says

read more


Jubilee Insurance Co. reports FY PAT 2015 +0.562% Earnings
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           473.00
Total Shares Issued:          59895000.00
Market Capitalization:        28,330,335,000
EPS:             42.7
PE:                11.077

FY Gross written premium 30.158675b vs. 29.469000b +2.340%
FY Gross earned premium 23.029933b vs. 24.782043b -7.070%
FY Net insurance premium revenue 14.876157b vs. 16.331221b -8.910%
FY Other revenue 6.821757b vs. 8.044664b -15.201%
FY Total income 21.697914b vs. 24.375885b -10.986%
FY Net insurance benefits and claims [11.565275b] vs. [15.870479b] -27.127%
FY Total expenses and commissions [7.004661b] vs. [5.987944b] +16.979%
FY Results of operating activities 3.127988b vs. 2.517462b +24.252%
FY Net finance cost [34.861m] vs. [49.745m] -29.921%
FY Share of associates 1.052012b vs. 1.481568b -28.993%
FY Group profit before tax 4.145139b vs. 3.949285b +4.959%
FY Net profit 3.121093b vs. 3.103653b +0.562%
FY Other comprehensive income for the year [154.569m] vs. 236.725m -165.295%
FY Total comprehensive income 2.966524b vs. 3.340378b -11.192%
EPS 42.7 vs. 43.7 -2.288%
Total equity 20.381207b vs. 16.479031b +23.680%
Total assets 82.378010b vs. 74.505374b +10.567%
FY Investment Assets 56.245763b versus 48.636015b +15.64%
Final Dividend 7.50 a share +1.00 Interim Dividend

Company Commentary


FY PBT +5.00%
Short Term Business +15%
Individual Life business +14%
Medical Business +32%

Conclusions


Headline [Net Insurance premium] Revenue -8.91%.
FY Total Income -10.986%
Net Insurance Claims -27.127% which is a commendable outcome.
Jubilee holds much more of their Portfolio in unlisted Securities than
in the Listed Markets and hence can smooth Earnings more effectively.
Its a well managed Franchise and on a Trailing PE of 11.oo just below F/V.

read more



East Africa's used- clothes trade comes under fire Economist
Kenyan Economy


By 2019 the EAC wants to outlaw imports of second-hand clothes. The
idea is that ending the trade in old clothes—mostly donated by their
former owners in rich countries—will help boost local manufacturing.
On March 10th Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenya’s president, met market traders
upset by the idea, and defended the need for “Kenyan manufactured
apparel”. Yet the ban seems sure to fail.

Mitumba trading is a big employer for Kenyans, most of whom work in
the informal labour market. By one estimate, there are 65,000 traders
in Gikomba alone. Imports have increased massively over the past two
decades. In 2015, according to UN data, Kenya imported about 18,000
tonnes of clothing from Britain alone. Whole-salers buy bundles for
anything up to 10,000 shillings (about $100), and sort the contents by
type and quality. Retail traders then come and source stock for their
own stalls elsewhere in the city, to be sold on to ordinary Kenyans.

read more



Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 101.451
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +1.19% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

147.44 +0.83 +0.57%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -1.45% 2016

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,982.09 +0.76 +0.02%

read more


Kenya Airways is set to send home up to 600 employees beginning next month as part of wide cost-cutting measures expected to reduce payroll by about Sh2 billion annually.
Kenyan Economy


KQ’s workforce stood at 3,973 as at March last year. Staff cost has
grown by 51 per cent in the past five years to Sh16.96 billion for the
year ended March 2015 compared to Sh11.2 billion in 2011.

The airline in July last year hired American consultancy McKinsey to
help restructure its operations, including staff review in the wake of
a massive financial bleeding that pushed it into the red.

@KenyaAirways share price data here -8.16% 2016

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=OA%3D%3D

@StanChartKe share price data here +18.46% in 2016 and at Fresh 2016 High

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjU%3D

EABL closed at a 10 week High of 289.00 and is +5.86% in 2016 share data here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzQ%3D

@National_Bank closed at an 11 Year Low of 12.95 share data and FY
2015 Earnings here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjI%3D

read more


Mauritius sells Rawat's 20/3% stake to existing Britam shareholders
Kenyan Economy


The Mauritius Government has agreed to sell the 20.3% percent stake in
Kenya’s diversified financial services company, Britam to existing
shareholders after seizing it from a disgraced tycoon,Dawood Rawat, it
said on Thursday.

The Indian Ocean island seized the assets of Dawood Rawat, a Mauritius
citizen, in April 2015 after accusing him of running a Ponzi-like
scheme through a Mauritian insurer.

Minister for Financial Services Sudarshan Bhadain told parliament that
an offer from another operator “could not go through because the
existing shareholders in Kenya were not willing to allow third parties
into their company.”

“They came to Mauritius and they said to us that they are willing to
buy those shares themselves, this has been done,” Bhadain said in
comments posted on Mauritius parliament’s website.

Few weeks ago, Britam CEO Mr Benson Wairegi had urged the local
investors to take up Rawat’s stake in the firm,Read story here Britam
CEO Benson Wairegi urges local investors to buy Rawat’s 20.3% stake

A memorandum of understanding has been signed between both parties and
the minister said the “money is going to hit the bank account this
week and then there is a second part which is going to be paid by
April 30.”

@BRITAM_EA share price data here -17.69% 2016

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTk%3D

read more




 
 
N.S.E Today


The Stock Market was not nearly as dramatic as events in the
Parliament yesterday. CORD have obviously watched the EFF and
@Julius_S_Malema 's intervention at the Time of SA President Zuma's
State of the Union.See Below

Opposition disrupts Zuma's State of the Union speech Video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-08im1mIxIQ

However, I think the President was appraised of the possibility of
such a disruption and that whilst it was a very effective, asymmetric
response in SA [precisely because the @SAPresident is rogue] looked
like poorly conceived Theatre yesterday. And it reminded me of the
moment when the Opposition Leader met with the Foreign Correspondents
Association of East Africa and impugned the bona fides of the Federal
Reserve Bank and that was a Buy Signal for the Eurobond because at
that moment International Investors realised it was Theatre. The
Eurobond rallied in a straight line from a Price of 85.00 back to
95.00, since that date.

The Nairobi All Share eased back 0.41 points to close at 147.03.
The Nairobi NSE20 rose 14.29 points to close at 3996.38 and just below
the 4,000 level.
Equity turnover was lackadaisical at 291.987m.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom eased back 0.3% to close at 16.85 and traded 6.052m shares.
Safaricom targets 22.50 in 2016 in my opinion a +33.53% Uplift and
that does not include dividends.

Kenya Airways announced that it was set to send home up to 600
employees beginning next month as part of wide cost-cutting measures
expected to reduce payroll by about Sh2 billion annually. KQ’s
workforce stood at 3,973 as at March last year. Staff cost has grown
by 51 per cent in the past five years to Sh16.96 billion for the year
ended March 2015 compared to Sh11.2 billion in 2011.
The airline in July last year hired American consultancy McKinsey to
help restructure its operations. Kenya Airways unchanged at 4.50 and
traded 1.126m shares. Buyers are absorbing lines of stock at 4.50.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Standard Chartered Bank surged +6.92% to close at a Fresh 2016 High of
247.00 and traded 17,300 shares. I wrote this when I sighted the Full
Year Earnings Release

''I think This Set of Earnings is case of putting everything into it
Kitchen sink and all..I expect a much stronger FY 2016 especially
because I think Stan Chart have seriously benefited from the flight to
quality''

StanChart has soared +23.5% since March and is +26.66% Year To Date
which makes Lamin Manjang a Bull Outlier at the Nairobi Securities
Exchange in 2016.

Kenya Commercial bank firmed +0.6% to close at 41.75 and traded
763,800 shares. KCB has more than 3 Buyers for every Seller and is
girding itself for a move higher.

Barclays Bank fell 2.23% to close at a 5 Year Low of 10.95 and closed
out the session trading session lows of 10.80 -3.57%. Barclays Bank
has slumped -19.485% in 2016. Investors are now fretting  about
Franchise Erosion. High Frequency Data like Social Media is painting
an image of an Organisation struggling to keep it together.Investors
are probably factoring in a slow process around finding a new
shareholder and prepared to stop loss rather than to wait.

Barclays Bank Kenya share price data here  -19.485% in 2016
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTQ%3D

CfC Stanbic Bank Thursday signed a Sh13.5 billion two-tranche term
loan. The transaction was arranged by 14 key institutions including
Emirates NBD Capital Limited (ENBD) and Mashreqbank PSC. CFC StanBic
closed unchanged at 94.00 and is +13.939% in 2016.

National Bank which released its FY 2015 Earnings at Midnight
Wednesday night, closed at the lowest Level since May 2005. National
Bank slumped -9.27% to close at 11.75 and traded 3,100 shares. At the
Finish, There were No Buyers showing on the Board only Sellers.
National Bank has retreated -25.39% Year To Date and the Demand/Supply
dynamic is predicting further falls. The Clue to the debacle was
contained in the H1 2015 Earnings and picked up by Sunil Sanger
Esquire who tweeted the following;

@Sang252 @alykhansatchu The rise in profits in Q2 is from writing back
NPL provisions. Ratio of Provisions to NPLs at 11.2% v 32.5% in Q1.
@Sang252 @alykhansatchu Banking industry's ratio of Provisions to NPLs
is 41.3%. Ratio of 11.2% far below all other listed banks.

What Sunil was pointing out was an epidemic of under-provisioning
which evidently has now been corrected in the FY Earnings release.

Jubilee Insurance Co. reported a +0.562% FY 2015 Profit After Tax
increase and Headline FY [Net Insurance Premium] Revenue declined
-8.910%. FY Net insurance benefits and claims was managed an
eye-popping -27.127% lower to [11.565275b] vs. [15.870479b]
previously. FY Earnings Per Share declined -2.288% to 42.7 and the
Final Dividend is 7.50 a share [+1 shilling which was paid as an
Interim Dividend]. Jubilee holds much more of their Portfolio in
unlisted Securities than in the Listed Markets and hence can smooth
Earnings more effectively. FY Investment Assets expanded +15.64% to
56.245763b. Jubilee spoke to a +15% Short Term Business expansion,
+14% Individual Life business +14% and a +32% acceleration in the
Medical Business. Jubilee eased -0.42% to close at 471.00 Jubilee is
-2.68% in 2016.

The Mauritius Government has agreed to sell the 20.3% percent stake in
Britam to existing shareholders after seizing it from a disgraced
tycoon,Dawood Rawat, it said on Thursday. The Indian Ocean island
seized the assets of Dawood Rawat, a Mauritius citizen, in April 2015
after accusing him of running a Ponzi-like scheme through a Mauritian
insurer. Minister for Financial Services Sudarshan Bhadain told
parliament that an offer from another operator “could not go through
because the existing shareholders in Kenya were not willing to allow
third parties into their company.”  “They came to Mauritius and they
said to us that they are willing to buy those shares themselves, this
has been done,” Bhadain said in comments posted on Mauritius
parliament’s website. BRITAM EA firmed +1.401% to close at 10.85 and
was trading as high as 11.55 +7.94% at the Tape. BRITAM EA remains
-16.53% in 2016.

The Nairobi Securities Exchange rallied +3.809% to close at 27.25 and
was trading at 28.00 +6.67% at the Finish Line. The NSE is very well
supported at these levels and is setting itself for a run through
30.00.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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