17th December 2018
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 30th of August 2017
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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Gold looks to be overtaking the yen as a favoured haven
Africa


Gold looks to be overtaking the yen as a favored haven, and North
Korea’s missile launches look to be reinforcing that trend by spurring
investors to seek alternatives to the Japanese currency in times of
trouble. Tuesday’s provocation from Pyongyang saw gold rise more than
the yen on the early panic, and when calm returned to markets, the
barbarous relic’s 0.1 percent loss on the day looked good compared to
the Japanese currency’s 0.4 percent slide. The yellow metal has beaten
the yen about 65 percent of the time over the past three months on
days when both advanced; that compares with the earlier part of the
year when gold only beat the currency half of the time.

read more


18-APR-2017 :: Gold has the potential to go "nuclear"
Africa


The purest geopolitical proxy in the markets is Gold. As Ben Bernanke
once said People hold gold “As protection against what we call tail
risks: really, really bad outcomes.” Gold closed the week at a six
month high of $1,285.00 and has the potential to go ‘’nuclear’’

read more




Total G-3 Central Bank Control
Africa


To that end, daily observation of trading patterns allows us to
observe a clear and obvious, algo-driven program in the all-important
USDJPY. Because of the sheer size of the forex market (up to $7T/day),
any algorithm put in place to manage this pair could only come from
pockets deep enough to make it happen....namely, the G-3.

And what does this computer-based, G-3 buying program look like.
Again, in the simplest terms, this program sets up a USDJPY floor at
some pre-determined or even random level. Once a bounce is initiated,
a buy program then follows after the pair have come back down to a
newly-discovered double bottom. For today (Tuesday, the 29th), it
looked like this:

read more






Daily Kerouac @DailyKerouac
Africa


Praised be man, he is existing in milk
and living in lilies —
And his violin music takes place in milk
and creamy emptiness

read more



And let's be very clear: there is nothing evolutionary or linear about this change; it's exponential
Africa


Each step forward is double the past step and the further we get along
in those steps, the greater the change becomes.

read more






Hajj Pilgrimage Entangled in Web of Saudi Politics
Law & Politics


More than 1.7 million Muslims from around the world have arrived in
Saudi Arabia for the start of the annual hajj pilgrimage this week.
Once in Mecca — the site of Islam's holiest place of worship— they
will be reminded that the ruling Al Saud family is the only custodian
of this place.

Large portraits of the king and the country's founder hang in hotel
lobbies across the city. A massive clock tower bearing the name of
King Salman's predecessor flashes fluorescent green lights at
worshippers below. A large new wing of the Grand Mosque in Mecca is
named after a former Saudi king, and one of the mosque's entrances is
named after another.

It's just one of the many ways that Saudi Arabia uses its oversight of
the hajj to bolster its standing in the Muslim world — and to spite
its foes, from Iran and Syria to Qatar. Its archrival, the Shiite
power Iran, has in turn tried to utilize the hajj to undermine the
kingdom.

The hajj has long been a part of Saudi Arabia's politics.

For nearly 100 years, the ruling Al Saud family has decided who gets
in and out of Mecca, setting quotas for pilgrims from various
countries, facilitating visas through Saudi embassies abroad and
providing accommodation for hundreds of thousands of people in and
around Mecca.

"Whoever controls Mecca and Medina has tremendous soft power," said
Ali Shihabi, executive director of the Arabia Foundation, a pro-Saudi
center in Washington. "Saudi Arabia has been extremely careful from
day one not to restrict any Muslim's access to hajj so they never get
accused of using hajj for political purposes."

read more


Trump Vows 'All Options' Open After North Korea Missile Launch
Law & Politics


U.S. President Donald Trump said that “all options” are under
consideration in response to North Korea firing an unidentified
ballistic missile over Japan on Tuesday as Kim Jong Un’s latest
provocation rattled markets.

“The world has received North Korea’s latest message loud and clear:
this regime has signaled its contempt for its neighbors, for all
members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable
international behavior,” Trump said in a statement issued by the White
House.

“Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean
regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world.
All options are on the table.”

With sanctions having little impact and any war likely to be
catastrophic, the U.S. and its allies have few good options to stop
Kim from obtaining the capability to hit North America with a nuclear
weapon. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said “it’s
already obvious to everyone that the resource of sanctions pressure is
exhausted.”

“North Korea is acting as if it’s a nuclear weapons state,” John Park,
director of the Korea Working Group at Harvard Kennedy School, told
Bloomberg Television. “You can draw any number of red lines; in North
Korea’s mind they’re on the cusp of getting itself the capabilities
that are in the realm of the great powers.”

Conclusions

read more


NORTH KOREA'S MISSILE SHOT OVER JAPAN CALLS TRUMP'S BLUFF @wired
Law & Politics


WHEN NORTH KOREA launched a ballistic missile toward northern Japan's
Hokkaido Island late Monday, its trajectory was initially unclear.
Fearing the worst, the Japanese government interrupted television
programming and issued digital alerts advising locals to find shelter.
Though the missile ultimately flew over Japan and landed in the
northern Pacific Ocean after a roughly 1,700-mile journey, the flyover
was a powerful symbol of North Korea's resolute effort to develop its
missile program in spite of longstanding international opposition.
North Korea has flown projectiles over Japan twice before. The first
instance, in 1998, came with no warning; North Korea gave advance
notice of the second, in 2009. The country couched both of those
events as being part of satellite launches. Monday's surprise launch
came with no such explanation. But it fits into the larger context of
North Korea's rapidly escalating nuclear and missile ambitions—and,
more alarmingly, it shows outright disdain for President Donald
Trump's recent bluster.
It was just a few weeks ago, after all, that Trump declared that
further threats from North Korea would prompt "fire, fury, and frankly
power the likes of which this world has never seen before." While the
rhetoric seemed intended to cow North Korean leader Kim Jong-un,
repeated threats against US territory Guam and Monday's missile scare
suggest that Trump’s words, along with recent military exercises
conducted by the US and South Korea, had the exact opposite impact.

read more


Implications of the Hokkaido missile miss
Law & Politics


This week Japan found out just how vulnerable it was when a ballistic
missile fired by North Korea broke up in airspace close to Hokkaido,
Japan’s northernmost island. According to experts in Japan who spoke
to me on background, Japan had no capable air defense assets in the
north, leaving a significant part of its territory completely
unprotected. In essence, the Japanese government has failed in its
primary mission to protect its territory and people.

In the bigger picture, Japan is at a strategic crossroads. It isn’t so
much North Korea as it is a resurgent and wide awake China that
worries Japan. One consequence, something perfectly in view in the
shadow of Hokkaido is that reliance on the US for protection may be a
big risk. The US did not step in regarding the Hokkaido threat, and
while the US Air Force and Navy have been showing the flag, Japan is
rightfully uncertain the US would come to their aid.

For Japan the quandary is what to do now? Should Japan step up its
defense procurement and strengthen its missile defenses? Should Japan
offer some olive branches to North Korea, and if so what would entice
Kim Jong-un? Is it cheaper for Japan to buy their way out of a North
Korean problem than to spend tens of billions on missile defense that,
to a degree, makes them more rather than less of a target? How can
Japan “manage” the US if it takes steps to favor North Korea or even
North Korea and China?

These are difficult questions and it isn’t certain Japan will make any
concrete decisions soon. But it is clear that US influence has taken a
hard hit, just as the missile that broke apart near Hokkaido also
damaged Japan’s security posture.

read more








Ship collisions raise specter of Chinese electronic warfare @asiatimesonline
Law & Politics


China’s military has developed advanced electronic warfare
capabilities capable of disabling ships, aircraft and missiles and
there are signs the People’s Liberation Army is preparing to use
exotic electronic attacks in a future conflict with the United States.

Two recent collisions between US Navy warships and commercial ships
have raised the specter that China was behind the accidents, using
electronic means to disrupt or fool radar or navigation systems into
creating deliberate collisions, according to military experts.

read more


28-AUG-2017 :: China Rising @TheStarKenya
World Currencies


Apart from a few half-hearted and timid FONOPs [freedom of navigation
operations], China has established control over the South China Sea.
It has created artificial Islands and then militarised those
artificial islands across the South China Sea. It is a mind-boggling
geopolitical advance any which way you care to cut it. China has
advanced its footprint in Pakistan, where it has leased the Gwadar
Port [giving China and Central Asia access to the Gulf region and the
Middle East] for 43 years. Sri Lanka, which gorged on Chinese debt,
has had to disgorge the Hambantota Port to its creditor. And recently,
we saw China formally open a mliitary facility in Djibouti.  These
moves taken together speak to a material Chinese advance.  The pivot
to Asia which was supposed to contain China is dead in the water and
China has sprung that trap.

read more






Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1939
Dollar Index 92.46
Japan Yen 110.11
Swiss Franc 0.9568
Pound 1.2907
Aussie 0.7964
India Rupee 63.94
South Korea Won 1124.98
Brazil Real 3.1657
Egypt Pound 17.6913
South Africa Rand 13.0115

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Rebel Group Vows to Step Up Attacks Against Burundi's Government
Africa


A Burundi rebel group vowed to intensify attacks on President Pierre
Nkurunziza’s government, potentially deepening the East African
country’s more than two-year political crisis.

The Burundi Popular Forces see the violence as necessary to compel
Nkurunziza’s administration to join peace talks with all the country’s
opposition groups, spokesman Adolphe Manirakiza said in an interview.
The rebels, who include former army and police officers, were
previously part of the Forebu group that claimed attacks on military
sites in Burundi in the past year, he said.

“We are obliged to take military action against the powers in
Bujumbura to stop the crimes that are being committed against the
population by state organs,” Manirakiza said by phone from a location
he wouldn’t disclose. Bujumbura is Burundi’s capital.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +11.36% 2017
Kenyan Economy


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.0115

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.6913

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +34.57% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +39.26% 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more



Kenya: Post-Election Killings, Abuse HRW
Kenyan Economy


Kenya’s presidential election on August 8, 2017 was marred by serious
human rights violations, including unlawful killings and beatings by
police during protests and house-to-house operations in western Kenya,
Human Rights Watch said today. At least 12 people were killed and over
100 badly injured.

read more


@StanChartKE reports H1 EPS 2017 -35.003% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           239.00
Total Shares Issued:          343510571.00
Market Capitalization:        82,099,026,469
EPS:             25.85
PE:                 9.246

Standard Chartered Bank of Kenya Limited H1 2017 results through 30th
June 2017 vs. 30th June 2016
H1 Kenya Government securities available for sale 105.588613b vs.
85.402418b +23.637%
H1 Loans and advances to customers (net) 113.040256b vs. 114.265013b -1.072%
H1 Total assets 289.077286b vs. 255.948220b +12.944%
H1 Customer deposits 224.482823b vs. 190.872512b +17.609%
H1 Total shareholders’ equity 43.589956b vs. 43.581629b +0.019%
H1 Total interest income 12.738535b vs. 13.043903b -2.341%
H1 Total interest expenses [3.582021b] vs. [3.084111b] +16.144%
H1 Net interest income/ [loss] 9.156514b vs. 9.959792b -8.065%
H1 Foreign exchange trading income/ [loss] 1.246808b vs. 1.567336b -20.450%
H1 Total non-interest income 4.296419b vs. 4.535623b -5.274%
H1 Total operating income 13.452933b vs. 14.495415b -7.192%
H1 Loan loss provision [2.311347b] vs. [1.371367b] +68.543%
H1 Staff costs [3.326830b] vs. [3.075669b] +8.166%
H1 Total other operating expenses [8.475708b] vs. [7.022816b] +20.688%
H1 Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items 4.977225b vs.
7.472599b -33.394%
H1 Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items 3.426768b vs.
5.226314b -34.432%
Basic and diluted EPS 9.73 vs. 14.97-35.003%
Dividend per share 4.50 vs. 6.00 -25.000%
Gross NPL and Advances 16.913092b vs. 15.360300b +10.109%
Net NPL and Advances 4.751185b vs. 5.824481b -18.427%
Liquidity ratio 69.09% vs. 61.93% +7.160%

From Kestrel

Loans and advances (net) declined by 1.1% y/y to KES 113.0bn. On a YTD
basis, the decline stood at 7.9%.
Customer deposits increased by 17.6% y/y to KES 224.5bn. On a YTD
basis, the customer deposits growth stood at 20.3%. This is especially
notable given that StanChart’s cost of customer deposits remain
unchanged for the period at 3.0%.
StanChart’s loan to deposit ratio now stands at 50.4%, one of the
lowest across the banking sector. We continue to believe that
StanChart will accelerate lending going forward, and especially from a
NIM perspective, this would be a positive.
Operating expenses (inclusive of loan loss provisions) increased by
20.7% y/y to KES 8.5bn, above our expectations of KES 7.6bn, largely
on account of increased provisions (CoR as at 1H17 stood at 2.8%). The
cost to income ratio increased to 63.0% from 48.4% in 1H16.
Excluding provisions, operating expenses were largely in line with
estimates. Notably, staff costs increased by 8.2% y/y to KES 3.3bn.
Cost to income ratio excluding provisions stood 44.8%. As per our
conversations with management, the staff costs have largely been
driven by shared services staff (who had been rationalized towards the
end of 2016) working as consultants to transfer shared services
operations to StanChart Chennai. We expect staff costs to come down
significantly in 3Q17 onwards as the shared services consultants now
complete their projects.
Of particular interest is the trend in loan loss provisions, which
increased by 68.5% y/y to KES 2.3bn from 1.4bn in 1H16. Gross NPLs
stood at KES 16.9bn. As a result, the bank's coverage ratio (excluding
interest expenses) rose considerably to 40.1% from 33.3% at the end of
1Q17. This is the highest level of coverage StanChart has reported
since at least 2013.
StanChart Bank currently trades at a trailing P/E of 11.0x and a P/B
of 1.8x. Subsequently, the dividend yield currently stands at 7.9%.
RoAE at the end of 1H17 stood at 16.2%, driven largely by the increase
in provisions.

Conclusions


Plenty of Dry Powder in my opinion.
very defensive results Release leaving a lot of room for a material H2
improvement

read more


Standard Group H1 EPS [0.34] Earnings here @StandardKenya +112.12% in 2017
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           35.00
Total Shares Issued:          81731808.00
Market Capitalization:        2,860,613,280
EPS:             2.14
PE:                 16.355

H1 Revenue 2.439529b vs. 2.220707b +9.854%
H1 Total operating costs [2.315528b] vs. [2.057942b] +12.517%
H1 Finance costs (net) [86.704m] vs. [130.583m] -33.602%
H1 Profit before income tax 37.297m vs. 32.182m +15.894%
H1 Profit after tax 34.290m vs. 32.182m +6.550%
H1 Profit attributable to shareholders [27.570m] vs. 44.177m -162.408%
Basic and diluted EPS [0.34] vs. 0.54 -162.963%
No interim dividend
Total assets 4.564090b vs. 4.315257b +5.766%
Total shareholders’ equity 2.110384b vs. 1.909755b +10.505%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period [436.691m] vs.
[482.481m] -9.491%

Company Commentary


Group performance continued its upward momentum for the second year
running largely driven by growth in revenues. All business segments
except print advertising reported revenue growth, with Radio +58% and
TV +33% versus 2016
Print segment revenue was 4% behind 2016 [8% decline in advertisement
revenue while copy sales revenue increased by 3%]

Conclusions


The minority interest snaffled up 61.86m.
Headline Revenue +9.854% was better than satisfactory.
Radio +58% TV +33% Print -4.00%

read more


Deacons (East Africa) PLC reports H1 2017 EPS -266.667% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           4.00
Total Shares Issued:          123558228.00
Market Capitalization:        494,232,912
EPS:             -2.24
PE:                 -1.786

Deacons (East Africa) PLC H1 2017 results through 30th June 2017 vs.
30th June 2016

H1 Revenue 1.077695b vs. 1.026090b +5.029%
H1 Net operating profit 333.572m vs. 491.342m -32.110%
H1 Expenses [523.969m] vs. [466.396m] +12.344%
H1 EBITDA [190.397m] vs. 24.946m -863.237%
H1 Depreciation [48.172m] vs. [50.844m] -5.255%
H1 Finance costs [36.627m] vs. [46.848m] -21.817%
H1 Net foreign exchange [Loss]/ gain 17.450m vs. 2.578m +576.881%
H1 Profit from continuing operations [257.746m] vs. [70.168m] -267.327%
H1 Profit before taxation [257.746m] vs. [70.168m] -267.327%
H1 Profit/ [loss] for the period [180.422m] vs. [52.626m] -242.838%
H1 Basic and diluted EPS [2.09] vs. [0.57] -266.667%
No interim dividend

Company Commentary

overall retail trading environment during the period under review was
characterised by extraordinary and exceptional events that adversely
affected the business, key among them as follows
1. Drought - reduction in disposable income, coupled with lack of
consumer credit ad a direct impact on customer shopping trends.
2. Overall unit sales increased by 14% and total number of
transactions +9.00% average unit price sold reduced by 13% with a drop
in per customer average spend by 17%
3. 190,341 square feet in 2017 versus 169,516 in 2016 8 additional
stores. marginal 5% increase in revenue. Resultant cannibalisation led
to a drop in traffic into all malls
4. non-performance of major anchor tenants reduced traffic into all
malls..With 98% of our stores operating in malls whose anchor tenants
are experiencing stocking challenges, data sows that footfall as
decreased by over 60% with Customers closing to visit other
facilities.
5. National elections fever
6. aggressive sale offers in Q2 reduced average gross margins to 39%
''wellness and leisure'' market segment will continue to represent
growth opportunities
Bossing Adidas and Lifefitness brands posted good results
a reduction in margins by a major brand did not lead to an increase in
volume sales

Conclusions


Lots of Detail in the commentary. I am just concerned that this type
of business is going to get uber'ed

read more




Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +29.56% 2017
Kenyan Economy


172.75 -0.72 -0.42%

The Nairobi All Share eased -0.41% off a 29 month high to close at
172.75. The All Share has surged +8.96% since the Election and the
market called this election early. The All Share is +29.56% in 2017.

read more


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +26.86% 2017
Kenyan Economy


4,042.0 -46.92 -1.15%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Dollar rebounded. The Bank Of Japan surely stepped in to sell the Yen.
The Nairobi All Share Index corrected a further -0.89% to close at 171.21.
The All Share Index has corrected -1.302% over 2 sessions and since
closing at a 29 month high on August 28th.
The Nairobi NSE20 eased a marginal 3.22 points to close at 4038.86.
Equity Turnover registered 620.554m.
The Equity market has responded very bullishly since August 8th and
called this election early.
It is clear that there is no smoking Gun and Fridays widely
anticipated Supreme Court decision will be the catalyst for another
upwards re-rating.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Exchange and eased
-1.86% off a record closing high to close at 26.25 and traded 9.833m
shares. Safaricom remains in a long established Bull Channel which is
expected to hold through year end and therefore corrections will
remain shallow and corrective ahead of a move to 32.00.

Deacons (East Africa) PLC reported First Half Earnings where H1 2017
Revenue expanded +5.029% to 1.077695b, H1 Profit before taxation
slumped -267.327% to [257.746m] from. [70.168m] in 2016, and H1
Earnings Per Share clocked -2.09 versus -57cents last time. Deacons
scared a lot of granular detail in their commentary;

1. Drought - reduction in disposable income, coupled with lack of
consumer credit had a direct impact on customer shopping trends.
2. Overall unit sales increased by 14% and total number of
transactions +9.00% average unit price sold reduced by 13% with a drop
in per customer average spend by 17%
3. 190,341 square feet in 2017 versus 169,516 in 2016 8 additional
stores. marginal 5% increase in revenue. Resultant cannibalisation led
to a drop in traffic into all malls
4. non-performance of major anchor tenants reduced traffic into all
malls..With 98% of our stores operating in malls whose anchor tenants
are experiencing stocking challenges, data shows that footfall has
decreased by over 60% with Customers choosing to visit other
facilities.

Deacons slumped -8.15% to close at 3.95 and is -34.71% in 2017. The
Uber threat is real.

Standard Group which had rallied an eye-popping +112.12% through this
morning, reported First Half Earnings where H1 Revenue clocked a
+9.854% expansion to register 2.439529b, H1 Profit before Tax clocked
a +15.894% increase to reach 37.297m, but H1 2017 Profit attributable
to shareholders was [27.570m] vs. 44.177m in 2016. Essentially, The
minority interest snaffled up 61.86m. Radio Revenue was a standout at
+58%, TV +33%, with Print the laggard at -4.00%. Standard Group did
not trade.

TPS Serena Hotels firmed +1.79% to close at 28.50 and is +39.02% in
2017. TPS Serena traded 330,700 shares and has further to go as the
Tourism rebound gains traction.

Kenya Airways rallied +5.43% to close at 4.85 and traded 326,500 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Standard Chartered Bank reported a -34.432% slide in H1 2017 Profit
after Tax to clock 3.426768b vs. 5.226314b. In line with its Peer
Group, StanChart reported a +23.637% uplift in its GOK Securities to
105.588b and a -1.072% decrease in its net Customer Lending to
113.04b. H1 EPS was 9.73 versus 14.97 in 2016 and StanChart is paying
an Interim Dividend of 4.50 a rare versus 6.00 last time. Customer
deposits increased by 17.6% y/y to KES 224.5bn and StanChart has been
a serious beneficiary of the Deposit flight to Quality and this is
evidenced by the fact that they were able to hold the cost of Customer
deposits at an unchanged 3%. Operating expenses (inclusive of loan
loss provisions) increased by 20.7% y/y to KES 8.5bn, largely on
account of increased provisions. Kestrel Research noted the following

''Of particular interest is the trend in loan loss provisions, which
increased by 68.5% y/y to KES 2.3bn from 1.4bn in 1H16. Gross NPLs
stood at KES 16.9bn. As a result, the bank's coverage ratio (excluding
interest expenses) rose considerably to 40.1% from 33.3% at the end of
1Q17. This is the highest level of coverage StanChart has reported
since at least 2013.''

StanChart’s loan to deposit ratio now stands at 50.4%, one of the
lowest across the banking sector, which informs me of the following;
StanChart has plenty of Dry Powder and these very defensive results
leave a lot of room for a material H2 improvement.

StanChart eased -1.26% to close at 235.00 and traded 27,200 shares.
Shares are tightly held and I expect the share price to push on from
here. StanChart is +34.92% in 2017 on a Total Return Basis.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL traded 2nd at the Exchange and eased -0.38% to close at 262.00
and traded 529,500 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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