13th December 2018
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 15th of November 2017
 
Morning,
Africa

Register and its all Free.

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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#Mindspeak Presentation with @CytonnInvest CEO and Managing Partner @ehdande @YouTube
Africa


i thank Invest Africa and Kroll for an excellent Dinner last night

The event will be hosted by Rt. Hon. Mark Simmonds, Former UK Minister
for Africa. We will be joined by the following senior executives from
Kroll:  Benedict Hamilton (MD), Alexander Booth (Associate MD), Paul
Nash (Associate MD), who will discuss their strategies in Africa, with
a key focus on Kenya.

Macro Thoughts

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SIR HALFORD MACKINDER AND THE FIRST ASCENT OF MOUNT KENYA. Dr Michael A. Salmon
Africa


“I went out into the freshness of the sunrise, and beyond great herds
of game grazing peacefully within a few hundred yards, saw to the
south on the horizon 100 miles away the snowy dome of Kilimanjaro, and
100 miles to the north the twin peaks of Mount Kenya, streaked with
glaciers.”

These words were written in 1899 by Sir Halford Mackinder at the start
of his epic journey to conquer Mount Kenya (17,057 feet), the second
highest mountain in Africa

The entire party then travelled on the newly built Uganda railway from
Mombasa to the construction camp at Rail Head. Arriving there
Mackinder wrote: “Except for the track of twin rails, pegged down on
widely spaced sleepers, the only signs of humanity in the broad
landscape where now stands the city of Nairobi were the green tents of
three little camps – my own and those of the District Officer and a
trader.”

“Beyond a spoonful of soup at night-time, I had nothing to eat for
nearly thirty-six hours, except a few meat lozenges and an occasional
bite of Kola biscuit. Naturally the lassitude I felt had to be paid
for during the later hours. Back at Base Camp we were able to relax at
last. The midnight scene as we supped by the camp fire I shall never
forget. The sound of the Nairobi torrent, swelling suddenly from time
to time as the breeze changed, and even the occasional hoot of an owl,
made no break in the silence of the great peak standing brown and
white in the glare of the setting moon. The Pleiades twinkled over the
centre of the Lewis Glacier. Those evenings, this the most wonderful
of them all, were spent monosyllabically, warming our hands and feet
at the fire amid the mysterious shadows...Our thoughts and our words
were divided between our conquest and the red cinders that spoke of
home, until presently the scene around broke silently into our dreams,
compelling worship. Then, as the fire dulled and our feet grew chilly
the bark of a leopard ranging the hillside opposite reminded us of the
early rise on the morrow.”

read more


Mount Kenya in the morning Morning World
Africa


“The only people who see the whole picture,' he murmured, 'are the
ones who step out of the frame.” ― @SalmanRushdie

read more










News24 reported armed forces commander Constantine Chiwenga saying that the military had not taken over and that Mugabe and his family were safe
Law & Politics


News24 reported armed forces commander Constantine Chiwenga saying
that the military had not taken over and that Mugabe and his family
were safe. He added that armed forces were targeting the “criminals
around them,” and said the situation will return to normal soon,
Johannesburg-based News24 said on Twitter.

read more









Zimbabwe at "ominous moment" after army chief lambasts Mugabe's party. Military not keen on Grace. @AFP focus
Law & Politics


"We must remind those behind the current treacherous shenanigans that
when it comes to matters of protecting our revolution, the military
will not hesitate to step in," Chiwenga told top brass at Harare's
King George VI military headquarters in an unprecedented intervention.

read more







Trump Meets Duterte, Death-Dealing 'Trump of the East' via @thedailybeast
Law & Politics


President Donald Trump sat down with Rodrigo Duterte in Manila on
Monday for the first substantive discussions with his Philippine
counterpart. The American leader either showed masterful subtlety or
completely missed the point of the meeting, yet the get-together
looked like a roaring success for both of them.

Duterte, sometimes called “Trump of the East,” is colorful, saying
whatever pops into his head at the moment, both delighting and
infuriating Philippine voters.

But he has a dark side. Since his inauguration in June 2016, President
Duterte has led a campaign of “extrajudicial killings”—“EJK” for
short—of drug dealers and users. The death toll is unknown, but some
believe it has topped the 12,000 mark.

“Endorsements of murder roll off his tongue casually,” wrote Kylie
Atwood of CBS News on Sunday. “Duterte is fixated on extermination.”

No wonder the Philippine leader is sometimes called “The Punisher” or
“Duterte Harry.”

So the two most important issues dividing Washington and Manila were
discussed only in passing if they were discussed at all. But perhaps
that was the smart move for Trump at this particularly sensitive time
in relations.

Duterte was obviously impressed with Trump—they first met on Friday in
Danang at the APEC summit—and the two seem to be on buddy-buddy terms.
The Philippine leader in fact broke out in song on Sunday, belting out
a local love tune titled “Ikaw.” Said Duterte, at his obsequious best:
“Ladies and Gentlemen, I sang uninvited, upon the orders of the
commander in chief of the United States.”

read more





Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1791 The euro was at $1.1794 after surging 1.1 percent.
Dollar Index 93.84
Japan Yen 113.18
Swiss Franc 0.9887
Pound 1.3142
Aussie 0.7585 The Aussie dollar slid 0.6 percent to 75.87 U.S. cents.
An index of wage prices rose less than expected in the third quarter.
India Rupee 65.325
South Korea Won 1113.09
Brazil Real 3.3132
Egypt Pound 17.6585
South Africa Rand 14.3854

read more










Losses Deepen for Global Stocks, Commodities Drop: Markets Wrap @business
Commodities


A Bloomberg commodities gauge dropped the most in six months and crude
oil extended declines after the International Energy Agency cut its
forecast for demand and cautioned the global market will remain
oversupplied

read more




Matters Kingdom The capture of a 32-year-old wannabe king and the future price of crude oil Video
Commodities


Cast List @netanyahu MBS MBZ Jared Kushner @khamenei_ir
@realDonaldTrump Carte Blanche Nasrullah

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There's more farmland in the world than was previously thought
Commodities


There’s more agricultural land in the world than previously thought,
and India rather than the U.S. or China is now believed to have the
biggest acreage of any country, according to new study aimed at
improving food and water security.

Global cropland totals 1.87 billion hectares (4.62 billion acres), 15
percent to 20 percent higher than earlier estimates, according to a
map released Tuesday by the U.S. Geological Survey. The increase is
due to the assessment of areas previously mapped inaccurately, or left
unmapped, the USGS said in a statement.

read more



Venezuela's Bondholder Meeting Is a Bust as S&P Declares Default
Emerging Markets


Venezuela’s grand gathering with creditors Monday lasted all of 30
minutes and didn’t produce anything of substance. To make matters
worse, S&P Global Ratings declared the country in default while Fitch
Ratings cited missed payments by the state oil company.

The actions from the ratings companies came after an odd spectacle in
Caracas, where bond investors who made the trek to hear the country’s
restructuring proposal found a red-carpet welcome, an honor guard
salute and gift bags stuffed with state-produced chocolate and coffee.
Fewer than 100 creditors showed up at the downtown Caracas office
building, and at least one hightailed it out after realizing that two
government officials sanctioned by the U.S. were in attendance,
fearful of violating rules governing interactions with them.

He didn’t miss much. Nothing of import was announced and nothing of
import was resolved, according to attendees who said they left just as
confused about the government’s intentions as they were going in. Vice
President Tareck El Aissami was the only official to speak, and
devoted most of his prepared remarks to railing against Donald Trump
and global financiers who he said have conspired to keep the country
from making debt payments on time. He pledged the nation would
continue to honor its obligations and work with bondholders to find
new ways to get them their money, but offered no concrete proposals
for restructuring.

read more


S&P downgrades Venezuela's credit rating to SD (Selective Default) from CC @ReutersJamie
Emerging Markets


S&P downgrades Venezuela's credit rating to SD (Selective Default)
from CC after it fails to make $200M coupon payments for its global
bonds due 2019 and 2024 within the 30-calendar-day grace period.

Frontier Markets

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Rand's year-to-date carry turned negative this week as the currency retreats to weakest level since Sept. 2016
Africa


The fortunes of the South African rand have swung so much that it’s
gone from being the best carry-trade to the worst this year.

Barring a few days in early January, the rand’s year-to-date carry
return against the dollar turned negative for the first time in 2017,
and is the only currency among 16 major peers to have handed carry
traders a loss on a year-to-date basis through Nov. 13.

read more


The clearing yield of 10.405 percent, however, was 46 basis points higher than when the notes were last sold on Oct. 17.
Africa


“To me, widening budget deficits and exploding debt issuance will be
the triggers for more downgrades,” said Win Thin, global head of
emerging-markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “Bond
buyers are really putting themselves at risk by loading up on new
issuance here.”

read more




Ghana's cedi currency weakened to the lowest level in nearly eight months on Tuesday as local businesses sought more dollars for their end-of-year imports
Africa


It touched 4.5 to the greenback at midday on Tuesday from Monday’s
4.46 close, down six percent since January, according to Reuters data.

“Speculative currency traders are unwinding in the wake of what the
markets considered a not-well-thought-of bond sale - it’s unsettling
investors,” a commercial bank currency dealer told Reuters.

In its daily market update on Tuesday, Barclays Bank Ghana said
dollars were hard to come by in the previous trading session. “Demand
was seen on all fronts,” it said.

The currency plunged to an all-time low in March when it traded at 4.7
to the dollar.

read more



This Tiny African Nation Could Be Next to Sell a Eurobond
Africa


Another African country is considering selling dollar debt -- but it’s
international debt market debut may be hindered by its economy being
too small.

Swaziland is debating whether to issue a Eurobond and should decide by
January or February, Bheki Bhembe, principal secretary at the Finance
Ministry, said by phone Tuesday. The problem is that the country would
probably need to raise a minimum of $500 million if it were to tap
dollar-debt markets, and it’s gross domestic product for 2016 was only
$3.7 billion.

“It’s a small economy,” Bhembe said. “That has been the debate going
on. We don’t have a concrete plan at this stage.”

Swaziland, with 1.3 million people, is a landlocked country surrounded
by South Africa and Mozambique and is smaller than New Jersey. Sugar
and soft-drink concentrates are the biggest foreign-exchange earners,
according to the Central Intelligence Agency.

Size hasn’t stopped other countries from issuing in the recent past.
Suriname, which has a smaller economy and a population that’s less
than half of Swaziland’s, sold $550 million in dollar debt a year ago.

Swaziland’s government would use the proceeds to fund new power
generation, dams, and build a rail link to South Africa if it were to
undertake the sale, Bhembe said.

Moody’s Investors Service last month assigned Swaziland a first-time
rating of B2

read more


Kenya faces a bleak economic outlook in 2018 after two disputed elections @BBGAfrica
Kenyan Economy


Kenya is facing an economic storm in 2018 in the aftermath of two
disputed elections.

Saddled with the triple threat of austerity measures to pay for those
votes, slowing credit growth and new accounting rules for banks, Kenya
now risks missing the government’s forecast for 6 percent economic
growth next year, according to lenders including Nairobi-based Stanbic
Bank Kenya Ltd. Investec Bank Ltd. strategist Chris Becker says
expansion could slow to as little as 1 percent.

“With growing headwinds, there is no longer any room for complacency,”
said Ronak Gopaldas, an independent analyst, formerly at FirstRand
Ltd.’s investment banking unit in Johannesburg. The new administration
should “refocus its attention to the economy, which has been on the
back-burner for the better part of the year,” he said.

Now key indicators for East Africa’s largest economy, the regional hub
for multinationals including IBM Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp., are
flashing warnings signs, with the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index, a
measure of private-sector activity, falling to a record low and bank
loans growing the slowest in more than a decade.

The Treasury has revised its 2017-18 budget deficit forecast to 8.5
percent of gross domestic product from 6.8 percent. The government
recorded a 9.2 percent shortfall in year through June 2017.

While lifting the rate cap could boost lending, it will also raise the
cost of domestic borrowing, according to Mark Bohlund, an economist at
Bloomberg. The Treasury plans to raise 256 billion shillings from
external creditors in this fiscal year to help finance the budget
deficit.

A new Eurobond issuance by Kenya in 2018 “would likely do well, even
if the economy settles at a slower pace, 4 percent to 5 percent real
GDP growth,” Bohlund said. “But potential investors will likely want
to see a credible fiscal consolidation plan.”

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +20.00% 2017

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +16.73%

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Euro followed through yesterdays +1.1% gain higher to touch 1.1850
German Q3 GDP +0.8% Spain +0.8% France +0.5% Italy +0.5% UK +0.4% all
boosted the Euro.
Japan's economy grows for a 7th straight quarter, its longest
expansion since 2001.
The Commodities Markets had a torrid session yesterday and the
Bloomberg commodities gauge dropped the most in six months.
Local Currency denominated Emerging Markets Paper tanked.
S&P downgraded Venezuela's credit rating to SD (Selective Default)
from CC but some Folks believe the President Maduro is gaming the
market in order to scoop up the debt at 20cents or less to the dollar.
South American Leaders ave form in tis regard. Coreia refers.
The big news on the African Continent was the apparent decapitation of
Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe by the Army, who have been very careful to
characterise their intervention as not a ''Coup''
Robert Mugabe and his family remain under military detention in
Zimbabwe 12 hours after the military declared on national television
that it had temporarily taken control of the country to “target
criminals” around the head of state.
The dislocation in Zimbabwe's economy is evidenced in the Price of
Bitcoin. Bitcoin climbed as much as 10 percent on Zimbabwe’s Golix
exchange on Wednesday after the country’s armed forces seized power.
The price of the cryptocurrency in the Southern African nation jumped
as high as $13,499, almost double the rate at which it trades in
international markets, according to prices cited on Golix’s website.
This is a cathartic moment but ultimately a bullish development.
Bloomberg carried an article captioned ''Kenya faces a bleak economic
outlook in 2018 after two disputed elections''
Saddled with the triple threat of austerity measures to pay for those
votes, slowing credit growth and new accounting rules for banks, Kenya
now risks missing the government’s forecast for 6 percent economic
growth next year, according to lenders including Nairobi-based Stanbic
Bank Kenya Ltd. Investec Bank Ltd. strategist Chris Becker says
expansion could slow to as little as 1 percent.
The Nairobi All surged 1.63 points to close at 161.64
The Nairobi NSE20 edged +8.99 points higher to close at 3728.16
Equity Turnover clocked 741.283m.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom which was tilting higher yesterday rebounded +2.04% to close
at 25.00 and traded 9.964m shares. International Investors have
discounted the Hashtag Boycott Propaganda. Safaricom has invested in a
c21st Internet Superhighway, staying on that Highway is a Need not a
Want.

The Nairobi Securities Exchange issued the following notice
''SUSPENSION OF TRADING IN KENYA AIRWAYS PLC''


Notice is hereby given on the suspension in trading of Kenya Airways
PLC effective November 15, 2017 up to and including November 28, 2017.
The suspension is to facilitate the share split and simultaneous
consolidation of the company’s shares which forms part of the Kenya
Airways PLC capital transaction. The suspension in trading was
approved by the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) on November 14, 2017.
All shareholders, investors and the general public are asked to take
note of the suspension.

Kenya Airways self-evidently did not trade.

Uchumi reported FY 17 Earnings before the Opening Bell. Uchumi
reported a -59.745% slump in FY Net Sales, The FY Loss after Tax
improved to -1.68b versus -2.83b the previous year. The Cash Position
was -518.292m. In the accompanying Commentary, The Company said
''Improved cost management implementation resulted in significantly
improved loss position for the year by 39% from 2.8b to 1.7b''  The
Company also said that Discussions are ongoing with a potential
strategic investor and government shareholder loan is imminent with
expected release of 700m. The Auditors, however, have given a
qualified opinion due to the possible effect on the comparability of
corresponding and current year figures for the consolidated and
separate financial performance and cash flows as a result of the
following matters

-> Loss of control of business in the Uganda and Tanzania subsidiaries
in the financial year ended June 2016
-> Assets write off in the financial year ended 30th June 2016

Some of the key audit matters where significant judgement was
exercised by Management include impairment loss on trade and other
receivables, contingent liabilities in respect of claims and
litigations, recognition of deferred tax asset, valuation of
investment property and completeness and the existence of trade
payables.

The market Cap is a paltry $12m. Nakumatt is a question of pronouncing
the last rites This is a Bargain basement entry for someone who wants
to tackle this Opportunity, I venture. Uchumi ticked +2.99% better to
close at 3.45 on odd-lot trading.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Standard Chartered reported Q3 2017 Earnings and issued a Full Year
Profits Warning. StanChart reported a +27.812% ramp higher in its
Holdings of GOK securities which clocked 113.54b, Q3 Loans and
advances to customers (net) declined -5.399% to 114.241248b  Q3 2017
Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items declined -39.079% to
4.709355b and hence the FY Profits Warning. Standard Chartered is a
solid Franchise and these Earnings have been widely signalled so I
expect any price correction to be shallow. Stanchart eased -3.08% to
close at 220.00 on light trading of 8,100 shares. Shares are tightly
held. StanChart is +26.19% on a Total Return Basis in 2017 and any
price weakness is an opportunity to load the position.
Diamond Trust Bank under the nimble leadership of Ms. Nasim Devji
reported Q3 2017 Earnings where Q3 Kenya Government securities – held
to maturity clocked a +13.736% increase to 84.332855b,  Q3 Loans and
advances to customers (net) expanded +8.119% to 196.292862b and Total
Assets reached 313.768b +13.843%. Q3 2017 Profit after tax and
exceptional items declined a marginal -3.577% to 5.128652b. These were
a resilient set of Earnings self-evidently.  DTB closed unchanged at
191.00 and traded 189,700 shares. DTB is up an eye-popping +64.06% in
2017.
KCB rallied +2.53% to close at 40.50 and traded 2.548m shares,



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL was the most actively traded share at the Exchange and shaved off
-0.41% to close at 240.00 on easy duty volume action of 1.071m shares
worth 257.257m. EABL is -1.63% [excluding dividends] in 2017 and has
room to narrow its underperformance [NSE All Share is +20.00% over the
same dates], through year end.

KenGen eased 5cents to close at 8.35 and traded 391,800 shares. There
is plenty of latent Buy Side Demand which will tip its hand
momentarily.

--



Africa


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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