17th December 2018
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 02nd of November 2017
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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The Hollow Men T.S. Eliot
Africa


Here we go round the prickly pear
    Prickly pear prickly pear
    Here we go round the prickly pear
    At five o'clock in the morning.

    Between the idea
    And the reality
    Between the motion
    And the act
    Falls the Shadow
                                   For Thine is the Kingdom

    Between the conception
    And the creation
    Between the emotion
    And the response
    Falls the Shadow
                                   Life is very long

    Between the desire
    And the spasm
    Between the potency
    And the existence
    Between the essence
    And the descent
    Falls the Shadow
                                   For Thine is the Kingdom

    For Thine is
    Life is
    For Thine is the

    This is the way the world ends
    This is the way the world ends
    This is the way the world ends
    Not with a bang but a whimper.

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Sayfullo Saipov charged with terrorism
Law & Politics


Sayfullo Saipov was taken to the New York federal courthouse in a
wheelchair, handcuffed and with his feet shackled on Wednesday,
shortly after the charges were announced at a press conference.

read more


29-APR-2013 :: The Brothers Tsarnaev and the Long Tail
Law & Politics


There are more than seven billion of us now in this c21st world of
ours. The long tail in a population of seven billion is not an
insignificant absolute number.

‘’In statistics, a long tail of some distributions of numbers is the
portion of the distribution having a large number of occurrences far
from the “head” or central part of the distribution.’’

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29-APR-2013 :: Put in a different way, there are surely many Brothers Tsarnaev in this new c21st of ours.
Law & Politics


And whilst I appreciate Osama Bin Laden is being nibbled by the fishes
somewhere in the ocean, he basically inspired the likes of the
Brothers Tsarnaev, i.e those disaffected with the c21st. In truth,
that disaffection might have any number of reasons and I am reminded
of my French O level where I studied Albert Camus’ L’Etranger and
Camus said;

“The byronic hero, incapable of love, or capable only of an impossible
love, suffers endlessly. He is solitary, languid, his condition
exhausts him. If he wants to feel alive, it must be in the terrible
exaltation of a brief and destructive action*.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1653
Dollar Index 94.53
Japan Yen 113.89
Swiss Franc 0.9993
Pound 1.3279
Aussie 0.7714
India Rupee 64.555
South Korea Won 1113.95
Brazil Real 3.2674
Egypt Pound 17.6565
South Africa Rand 13.9564

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In the third quarter, Facebook said its revenue growth rate accelerated to 47 percent, and the company pulled in an operating profit margin of 50% via @gadfly
International Trade


That is remarkable for any company, let alone one that is already one
of the world's biggest public companies by market value.

There are a couple of spots of worry, though. One, the average number
of people who used Facebook or Facebook Messenger at least once a day
reached 1.37 billion in September, and while the figure is
impressively massive it was also the slowest year-over-year growth
ever in daily users. The question is whether this was a blip or a sign
that Facebook will have a tougher time drawing in more people.

read more



From Oil to Ruthenium, Here's How Commodities Are Bouncing Back Bloomberg
Commodities


Commodities are booming again.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up more than 9 percent from its
late-June lows, outpacing the S&P 500 Index’s 6 percent advance over
the same stretch.

Signs that the long-awaited rebalancing of the global crude market is
at hand have pushed Brent futures to two-year highs, while West Texas
Intermediate isn’t too far behind. And it’s not just oil: Synchronized
global growth and China’s crackdown on capacity in a bid to help clean
up the environment have fostered gains across the spectrum for raw
materials.

Even more impressive for the broad commodity rally: It’s occurring
amid back-to-back months of gains for the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index,
typically a headwind for raw materials.

Metals are also on a tear, giving traders and industry experts
gathered for LME Week in London plenty to cheer about. From aluminum
to zinc, just about everything is up. Codelco, the biggest copper
producer, suggested a run toward the all-time high of $10,190 a ton
may be possible. Expectations of surging battery demand are buffering
nickel prices. But the real star of 2017? That’s palladium. The metal
is heading for its highest close since 2001 thanks to its role as a
key component in curbing emissions in gasoline-powered vehicles.

A testament to firming demand buoying metals prices: Inventories on
the London Metal Exchange continue to shrink.

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The central bank's foreign reserves, including gold, have tumbled about 75 percent since 2014 to just above 522 million dinars ($1.39 billion) in August
Emerging Markets


bahrain’s debt risk, measured by five-year credit default swaps, has
dropped more than 60 basis points to 241 as of Tuesday, according to
data compiled by Bloomberg.

Frontier Markets

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28 killed in rare protests in Eritrea, opposition group says AP
Africa


ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (AP) — At least 28 people have been killed in
rare protests in the capital of Eritrea, one of the world’s most
reclusive nations, an official with the largest Eritrean opposition
group said Wednesday.

Another more than 100 people were injured in the protests in Asmara
that began on Monday and escalated on Tuesday, spokesman Nasredin Ali
with the Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization told The Associated
Press, citing sources on the ground in Eritrea. The group is based in
neighboring Ethiopia.

The U.S. Embassy in Eritrea late Tuesday reported gunfire “at several
locations in Asmara due to protests” and advised U.S. citizens to
avoid the downtown area. The statement did not say why the protests
occurred.

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Liberia's Supreme Court halts presidential run-off over fraud allegations Reuters
Africa


Liberia’s Supreme Court has stayed next week’s presidential run-off
election until it considers a challenge to first round results by a
losing candidate who has alleged fraud.

In Liberia’s capital Monrovia on Wednesday, riot police deployed
outside the Supreme Court and election commission headquarters as
authorities urged calm.

“The public should not panic,” Sam Collins, a police spokesman, told
local radio. “People can go about their normal business.”

Weah won the first round with 38.4 percent of the vote to Boakai’s
28.8 percent and picked up an important endorsement last week from
former warlord Prince Johnson, who won 8 percent of the first-round
vote [nL8N1N183V].

Morluba Morlu, a senior official from Weah’s CDC party, said on
Wednesday that he still expected the run-off to go ahead next week.

“It is sad for a ruling party that has been in power for 12 years (to)
be crying,” he said of Unity Party’s support for the legal challenge.
“We don’t want any mockery of this election.”

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Zimbabwe: Financial System Is Living On Borrowed Time - and Borrowed Money By Roger Southall, University of the Witwatersrand
Africa


Zimbabwe's financial system increasingly resembles a house of cards.
Were one card to give way - for instance, if South Africa's power
utility, Eskom, were to have the temerity to suggest that Zimbabwe
actually pay for the electricity that it's supplying the country - the
entire edifice would collapse.

To put it another way, the government is bust. It is again printing
money to cover its spiralling costs, and inflation is rising. And
given that there's an election looming in 2018, Zimbabwe's ruling
party, ZANU-PF doesn't want to cut-back. Far from it, it wants to
carry on spending, as fast as it can.

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Peter Hain's "smoking gun" - provides bank accounts detailing how Guptas took billions from SA via @biznewscom
Africa


LONDON — Renowned anti-Apartheid activist, Lord Peter Hain, drove a
very deep nail into the Zupta coffin in the UK’s House of Lords on
Wednesday. In a speech that was televised live, Hain said he has
handed over a “smoking gun” to the UK Treasury – documents revealing
details of money laundered by the Guptas from South Africa through the
UK into Hong Kong and Dubai. This evidence, which also contains full
details of the beneficiary bank accounts and how the money was sloshed
around to disguise its origin, breaks the investigation wide open,
giving the authorities an open and shut case of money laundering. Hain
also says that according to his information, these transactions
channelled were flagged by staffers at the UK bank used to launder the
dirty money. He did not name the bank today, but from his previous
disclosures, it is obvious that he is referring to HSBC. Hain says the
bank’s staffers were told by executives higher up the chain not to
report the transactions – an action which the Lord says makes them
criminally complicit. His full speech is transcribed below – the
dynamite section is highlighted in bold italics. With the FBI in hot
pursuit, and the UAE Central Bank closely eyeing the Guptas, this
latest revelation from Hain closes the loop for the authorities –
pointing them towards the evidence that will very likely retrieve
billions of rands back into South Africa and put the corrupt crony
capitalists – and their accomplices – behind bars for a long, long
time. – Alec Hogg

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +17.49% 2017 (record high)
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.9984 [target 14.40]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.6372

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +37.26% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +39.68% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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"Afrikan Boy Sittin'" from "My Rock Stars: Volume 2" @1843mag
Africa


The nine works in “My Rock Stars” appear to be photographs, but as the
artists stand up to perform one by one you realise you are looking at
screens. Video art is rarely as compelling as these MTV-worthy
performances. When Afrikan Boy, a British-Nigerian artist who, like
Hajjaj, revels in his dual identity, starts to rap, the others look
sideways at him and nod or sway to the rhythm. In a thick Nigerian
accent, he delivers lines from his 2013 song “Hit Em Up”: “When I was
younger they said I was fat, I stopped learning how to swim just
because of that.” He’s mocking the stereotype of the African who is
skeletally thin, and can’t swim.

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@SafaricomLtd +39.53% in 2017 on a Total Return Basis and sits just -2.83% below a record closing high of 26.50
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           25.75
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,031,684,771,000
EPS:             1.21
PE:                 21.281

@SafaricomLtd will release H1 Earnings this Friday pre-market opening

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@KeEquityBank surged +7.23% to close at 40.75 and was trading at 41.50 +9.21% at the finish
Kenyan Economy


Captain Mwangi turned his @KeEquityBank  Oil Tanker early and on a
dime and hence the vibrant share price reaction

read more







 
 
N.S.E Today


The Bank of England has raised interest rates a 1/4 point to 0.5% and
this is the first rate hike in a decade.
Sterling reacted poorly and was down more than a 140 basis points
versus the dollar.
The IMF said SUB SAHARAN AFRICA TO REGISTER 3.4 PERCENT GROWTH IN 2018
VS 2.6 PERCENT IN 2017
The Nairobi All Share could not maintain its winning ways and eased
-0.48 points to close at 163.48.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index maintained its run higher and closed +17.16
points to close at 3776.83
Equity Turnover was vibrant for the 2nd consecutive session and volume
clocked 970.128b



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Citi ahead of the Safaricom Earnings release tomorrow said  '' We see
m-money as one of two growth drivers for the company going forward,
together with data. We are below consensus in our growth outlook as we
see three reasons for being cautious: 1. M-money growth is
increasingly shared with other players. 2. High voice prices are
likely to incentivize migration to OTT. 3. We think the gaming sector,
a tailwind in FY16-17, could start to decline following tax rise from
Jan 2018''  Safaricom rowed back -1.941% to close at 25.25 and traded
18.954m shares worth 482.86m.

Kenya Airways continued its recent winning ways to close +1.69% at
6.00 a 5 month high and traded 1.030m shares. Kenya Airways has
rallied a stellar +18.811% over 4 trading sessions.

Deacons rebounded +8.82% to close at 3.70 on just 500 shares traded.

Standard Group bounced +5.714% to close at 37.00 and is up a
mind-boggling +124.24% Year to Date.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


KCB Group rallied +4.45% to close at 41.00 and was trading at 42.00
+7.01% at the Finish Line. KCB has ramped +7.89% higher over 2
sessions. KCB traded 3.500m shares worth 143.869m.
Equity Bank which had rallied +12.413% since releasing its Q3 2017
Earnings, stalled today and closed unchanged at 40.75 and traded
3.092m shares worth 126.455m.

Centum Investments bounced +3.125% higher to close at 41.25 and traded
22,600 shares.

Kenya Re ratcheted +6.25% higher to close at 21.25 and traded light.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


KenGen firmed +0.56% to close at 8.95 and was trading at session highs
of 9.20 +2.25% at the closing Bell. KenGen traded 4.085m shares and I
stand firm on my Year End Price Target of 10.00.

KenolKobil closed +1.35% stronger at 15.00 and traded 2.456m shares.
KenolKobil trades on a Trailing PE of 9.146 and accelerated H1 2017
PBT +20.573% making it attractive at these levels.
Total Kenya rallied +5.95% to close at 22.25 and traded 22,900 shares.

EABL firmed +0.4% to close at 245.00 and traded 275,200 shares.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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