13th December 2018
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 30th of November 2017
 
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Macro Thoughts

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27-NOV-2017 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!" @TheStarKenya
Africa


1. Long BITCOIN.
2. Long BITCOIN short Gold

Bitcoin started the year just above $1,000, and the overall growth now
is approaching 900 percent. The cryptocurrency’s market capitalization
has reached $145 billion [the total crypto currency market cap has
soared to almost $275 billion]. Bitcoin is more valuable than major
corporations like Siemens, Mastercard, British American Tobacco or
McDonald’s. BITCOIN has been the top-performing currency every year
since 2010, except 2014 and this Year at +900% the return has been
parabolic [off the charts]. The Parabola was described thus by Thomas
Pynchon

“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the
parabola.  They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused
to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving
toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no
surprise, no second chance, no return.’’

If you spend Your life deeply immersed in the markets, then it is
necessary to sniff out these parabolic moves. And its Better to do
Right than Say right as Edwin Lefevre noted nearly a century ago.

Or as T.S Eliot said in The Hollow Men

Between the idea
And the reality
Between the motion
And the act
Falls the Shadow
For Thine is the Kingdom

Lets return to the subject at hand. On the 3rd of March this year, the
Price of #Bitcoin crossed the Gold price for the first time ever
[refer my Trade 2. for the year].  Bitcoin hit $1,900 on 22nd May and
$2900 on 7th June. In September Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan briefly
stemmed its rise when he said  'you can't have a business where people
can invent a currency out of thin air'.
By 1st November, Bitcoin was surging again after the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange announced the launch of Bitcoin Futures contracts.
On November 8th, 'Buy Bitcoin' Overtook 'Buy Gold' as an Online Search
Phrase. As I file this report on Sunday morning [and the grass is a
luscious green after the short rains, outside my window], Bitcoin is
all set to burst through $9,000,00.
The value of the second largest cryptocurrency Ethereum also smashed
an all-time high of $485 on Saturday. Ethereum’s market capitalization
is approaching $46 billion, and its gains this year have reached 5,000
percent. At the start of 2017, you could buy one token for $8.27,
about 58 times less than the current price. This, you will agree, is
mind-boggling inflation. In my experience, when I have found myself
riding a Tiger by its Tail, the key issue is the getting off and not
trying to run the Trade for every penny. I got off this Tiger.
Interestingly, Bitcoin traded as high as $13,499.00 in Zimbabwe last
week, but that speaks to the complete dislocation of that economy.

Mr. Novogratz who has raised $500m for a Crypto currency Fund said,
"Bitcoin has value because people say it has value."  and "Bitcoin you
can look at as digital gold."  Mr. Gartman said on bitcoin: "this is a
market for criminals and millennials" Th mining of bitcoins now uses
more electricity than Ireland or Nigeria.  Our Central Bank Dr.
Njoroge  said he thinks bitcoin a pyramid scheme JP Morgan's Jamie
Dimon called bitcoin a "fraud" in September and said it "won't end
well." The Guardian spoke about the 8 fold price inflation and
pronounced

''Since it is only widely used as a currency in drug deals or for
ransom payments, there is either a huge boom in criminal activities
outside the world of cryptocurrencies, or one within unregulated
exchanges where these tokens are traded''

''One of the few men to get out in time before the Wall Street crash
of 1929 did so – legend has it – because he was offered a stock tip by
the boy who shined his shoes. He immediately sold all his holdings. If
the mania for gambling on the stock market had reached down to the
children on the streets, the bubble must have been due to pop at any
moment. The corresponding moment for the cryptocurrency bubble will
only be discernible in retrospect, but we have some pretty strong
candidates already. The endorsement of one project by the reality TV
star Paris Hilton has already happened''

There are many cryptocurrency schemes which are sold on the same
grounds as the greatest South Sea Bubble prospectus: “For carrying on
an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.”

My Investment Thesis at the start of the year was that Bitcoin was
going to get main-streamed in 2017. It has main-streamed beyond my
wildest dreams, therefore, I am now sidelined.

Let me leave you with Hunter S. Thompson '' “Life should not be a
journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty
and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of
smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming
“Wow! What a Ride!”

read more




North Korea's latest missile test puts more of US in range
Law & Politics


“It went higher frankly than any previous shot they’ve taken, a
research and development effort on their part to continue building
ballistic missiles that can threaten everywhere in the world,
basically,” U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis

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Emmanuel Macron speaks at Ouagadougou University on Nov. 28. Photographer: Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images
Law & Politics


French President Emmanuel Macron used a speech to African students to
put economic development, culture and education on the same level of
importance as the terrorism and migration challenges that dominated
his predecessors’ relations with the continent.

In a speech of almost two hours to a boisterous crowd of students at
Ouagadougou University in Burkina Faso, the 39-year-old president laid
out his African policy, insisting that France’s colonial past should
no longer color relations given that both he and his audience had
never experienced colonialism.

“I’m from a generation that doesn’t tell Africa what to do: I have
come to listen,” Macron said, adding that Nelson Mandela’s 1994
election in South Africa was a seminal moment of his youth. “France
has a historical link to Africa, Africa is engraved in French history,
culture and identity. There were faults and crimes, there were happy
moments, but our responsibility is to not be trapped in the past.”

He promised that France’s development aid will reach 0.55 percent of
economic output by the end of his first five-year term, up from about
0.4 now, and said it would be better spent. “Sometimes aid hasn’t gone
to what’s needed, and instead has served just to please governments,
French and African,” he said to cheers from the students.

Macron was born in 1977. Most French colonies in Africa obtained
independence from 1960, though successive French governments kept
close ties, often intervening militarily to keep friendly regimes in
power.

Students laughed Tuesday when Macron mentioned demographics as a
challenge facing Africa. “To not talk about it would be
irresponsible,” he said, noting that 70 percent of the continent’s
population is under 30 years of age. “It’s a huge opportunity, and I
wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t, but it’s also a huge responsibility. We
need this debate.”

Conclusions

reconfiguring the Narrative in a new post colonial World where
probably 90% of Africans were born after the colonial struggle.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1862
Dollar Index 93.19
Japan Yen 112.20
Swiss Franc 0.9839
Pound 1.3470
Aussie 0.7585
India Rupee 64.397
South Korea Won 1082.16
Brazil Real 3.2458
Egypt Pound 17.6835
South Africa Rand 13.6570

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A 14.93-carat pink diamond ring sold for about $32 million at Christie's in Hong Kong,
Commodities


Pink diamonds are considered among the rarest and most valuable
gemstones in the world. Sotheby’s set the record for any gem ever sold
at an auction earlier this year, with its $71 million sale of the
59.6-carat Pink Star to Hong Kong-based jewelry retailer Chow Tai Fook
Jewellery Group Ltd.

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Angola's president picks apart Dos Santos empire
Africa


“No one will be above the law . . . I will be the only president,” he
said, although few took him seriously. But they were mistaken, because
as soon as he took the reins of the south-western African nation,
Lourenco kicked off a raft of appointments.

Within a few weeks, the bosses loyal to Dos Santos heading critical
institutions and sectors — including the central bank, oil, diamond
industry and the media — were replaced by allies of the new leader.

“Joao Lourenco is setting up his team,” the journalist and opponent
Rafael Marques said.
“What is out of the ordinary is that he is demonstrating that he is
the president, not the MPLA (People’s Movement for the Liberation of
Angola),” the ruling party since independence in 1975. The police and
the army did not escape the clear-out either.

Before retiring, Dos Santos took care to freeze by law the hierarchy
of the security forces for several years. But Lourenco replaced the
chiefs of police and military intelligence anyway.

“He’s tearing up the original compromise government that he negotiated
with Dos Santos around the time of his inauguration as head of state,”
said Alex Vines, an analyst at the British think tank Chatham House.
He has demonstrated that the dos Santos family is no longer
protected.”

Conclusions

Vow. The Speed of the Dos Santos unravelling. Lourenco is burning the
ground under his Feet.

read more


Zimbabwe's President Sets 90-Day Deadline to Return Stolen Cash
Africa


“Huge sums of money and other assets” have been taken by “certain
individuals and corporates,” Mnangagwa said in a statement Tuesday
without naming them. He urged those responsible for “a very serious
economic crime against the people of Zimbabwe” to act before the end
of the period, which starts Dec. 1, “to avoid the pain and ignominy of
being visited by the long arm of the law.”

The street price of hard currency in Zimbabwe has dropped more than 30
percent since Mugabe’s ouster. One U.S. dollar cost the equivalent of
$1.30 in Zimbabwean bond notes on the black market on Tuesday, down
from $1.90 on Nov. 20, according to street traders who quoted prices
to Bloomberg.

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Zimbabweans get a new experience with cash in ATMs
Africa


Some Zimbabweans were able to withdraw U.S. dollars from automated
teller machines this week for the first time in about a year as hard
currency started trickling back into the economy following Robert
Mugabe’s ouster as president.

read more



Tanzania opposition leader blames president after shooting
Africa


Seconds after two armed men leapt from a car that had been following
Tundu Lissu for three weeks, the Tanzanian opposition leader was being
thrown to the floor by his driver as they sought to survive a hail of
bullets.

“All hell broke loose,” says Mr Lissu, chief whip of the Chadema
party. “I have been told, because I couldn’t count, that 38 bullets
hit my car and out of those something like 16 hit me.”

Speaking in his first interview since the attack outside his flat in
the capital Dodoma in September, Mr Lissu, one of the most vocal
critics of the government, believes he was the target of an
assassination attempt. And he blames president John Magufuli, alleging
that it is evidence of what the opposition leader describes as a
campaign to turn “the country into a dictatorship”.

“He [Magufuli] wants to crush the political parties, crush the press,
crush organised civil society and the trade union and silence the
church,” Mr Lissu told the Financial Times in Kenya, where he is
receiving medical treatment. “Every independent centre of power should
be made to comply with the demands of the big man.”

Assassinations are rare in the east African nation and the president
described the attack on Mr Lissu as “barbaric”. The police have
announced no progress in the investigation despite the attack taking
place in a ​compound that Mr Lissu says was equipped with CCTV.

Hassan Abbas, a government spokesman, says Mr Lissu’s allegations are
“misplaced”.

“If anyone, including Mr Lissu, has any further evidence let him share
[it] with investigators,” Mr Abbas says. “Tanzania is known for its
unmatched peaceful and democratic political processes which are
conducted according to the laws.”

But the allegations against the president come as he faces mounting
criticism for stifling democratic debate.

Zitto Kabwe, leader of the opposition Alliance for Change and
Transparency party, was arrested four weeks ago for questioning
official macroeconomic statistics; the electoral commission has banned
discussion of national issues during campaigning for 43 council
by-elections on Sunday; and four newspapers have been shut in recent
months for criticising the president.

“By his own admission [Mr Magufuli] doesn’t believe in multi-party
democracy,” Mr Kabwe says. “He sees parties as annoyances, including
his own party. He wants to rule with no encumbrances. He prefers to
rule in an autocratic way.”

The motive for the attack on Mr Lissu was “to keep us quiet”, Mr Kabwe adds.

Mr Magufuli, whose nickname is “The Bulldozer”, came to power two
years ago promising to stamp out ​endemic corruption and drive
economic growth. He has been widely praised, including by Mr Lissu,
for clamping down on graft but strongly criticised for what his
opponents say are autocratic tendencies.

Mr Lissu, who has been charged six times this year — including with
sedition — after criticising Mr Magufuli, says he survived the
shooting because the bullets missed his torso and “hit me on the
backside big time”. He has had 12 operations and is still bed-ridden
but can sit up.

“He’s managed to ​beat us up real bad,” he says, referring to the
president’s crackdown on dissent. “The way Magufuli is, his
temperament, his personality, his recent actions, he’s turning the
country into a dictatorship.

“But we have one ace; he’s so good at making enemies. He’s made
enemies with everyone. And we can use this against him.”

Mr Lissu says the opposition was also benefiting from “Magunomics”,
his description for the president’s economic policies.

“He’s trying to take us back to the 1960s, 70s and 80s when the
government would control every productive activity,” says Mr Lissu,
who is also president of the Tanganyika Law Society. “The private
sector has suffered so much under him.”

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South African Rand Surges as Traders Cheer Respite From Moody's @business
Africa


South Africa’s rand is living up to its reputation as the world’s most
volatile currency.

Having been dealt what should have been a crippling blow by S&P Global
Ratings on Friday, sparking a 2 percent slump, the currency advanced
as much as 3.3 percent on Monday, on track for its best day since
December 2015, after Moody’s Investors Service retained its
investment-grade rating on the nation’s local-currency debt.

The reprieve by Moody’s meant South Africa retains its position in
Citigroup Inc.’s World Government Bond Index for now, even though the
company said it may cut the assessment after the February budget. An
exit from the index would spark forced selling of local bonds by
investors that track the gauge, leading to outflows of much as $10
billion, according to Societe Generale SA.

“I’m really surprised” by the rand’s gains, said Arnaud Masset, a
market analyst at Swissquote Bank SA. “Moody’s decision to hold fire
offset, somehow, the negative signal sent by S&P.”

Options traders pruned their short-term pessimism on the South African
unit as it rebounded. The rand’s expected swings against the dollar,
based on one-week and two-week contracts, fell by the most since 2006.
It was heading for the first close stronger than its 50-day moving
average since Oct. 13.

The currency strengthened 3.2 percent to 13.7140 per dollar as of 3:52
p.m. in Johannesburg. Local-currency bonds due December 2026 gained,
with the yield falling 12 basis points to 9.22 percent, after
increasing as much as eight basis points earlier.

“I think this reaction is very much in line with our predictions, in
the event of one agency cutting the ratings,” said Cristian Maggio,
head of emerging-markets research at the Toronto-Dominion Bank.
“Although, I must admit, it’s even faster than I would have expected.”

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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.6835
Africa


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +40.32% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +48.79% 2017

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Kenya is seeking proposals from banks about a possible $2 billion Eurobond offering in the first quarter of 2018
Kenyan Economy


Yields on Kenya’s existing $2 billion of Eurobonds due June 2024
traded three basis points lower at 5.74 percent by 3:52 p.m. in the
capital, Nairobi, on Monday.

Rotich said in May the government intended to use part of the proceeds
of the Eurobond sale to repay a $750 million syndicated loan owed to
banks including Citigroup Inc., Standard Bank Ltd. and Standard
Chartered Plc. The government earlier this month asked for an
extension on the repayment of the bulk of the loan until April. In
2014, Kenya extended the maturity of another syndicated loan by three
months as it awaited better conditions to issue its debut Eurobond.

read more


Centum Investment Company reports H1 2017 EPS -19.455% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           43.00
Total Shares Issued:          665441775.00
Market Capitalization:        28,613,996,325
EPS:             10.93
PE:                 3.934

Centum Investment Company PLC HY 2018 Results through 30th September
2018 vs. 30th September 2017
 HY Sales 4.772045b vs. 4.121865b +15.774%
HY Direct and other operating costs [4.223126b] vs. [3.619903b] +16.664%
HY Trading profit 548.919m vs. 501.962m +9.355%
HY Income from financial services 1.585604b vs. 2.422458b -34.546%
HY Funding and other costs [1.697086b] vs. [1.851163b] -8.323%
HY Operating [Loss]/ profit from financial services [111.482b] vs.
571.295m -119.514%
HY Investment and other income 2.231220b vs. 1.932971b +15.430%
HY Operating and administrative costs [524.583m] vs. [250.177m] +109.685%
HY Finance costs [557.253m] vs. [354.536m] +57.178%
HY Share of profits from associates and joint ventures 568.236m vs.
345.651m +64.396%
HY Profit/ [Loss] before tax 2.166518b vs. 2.760161b -21.508%
HY Profit/ [Loss] after tax 1.631416b vs. 2.057886b -20.724%
EPS 2.07 vs. 2.57 -19.455%
Total Assets 91.909b
Total Equity 50.604b
NAV 69.74
HY Closing cash and cash equivalents 4.921b vs. 5.639b -12.733%

Conclusions


On a Trailing PE of less than 4, this is a cheap share.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +29.54% 2017

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +20.06% 2017

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2017
 
 
 
 
 
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