23rd January 2019
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 09th of January 2019
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

http://www.rich.co.ke

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Can land reform be a success? l @AJEnglish @AJInsideStory
Africa


Presenter: Sami Zeidan
Guests
Derek Matyszak @issafrica
Aly Khan Satchu, CEO of Rich management
Joseph Ochieno former columnist for @NewAfricanMag

Macro Thoughts

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US China trade talks currently wrapping up @ForexLive
Africa


Conclusions

Did they break out into spontaneous Applause?

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10-DEC-2018 :: Truce dinner @Huawei
Africa


Sirloin steaks, Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] Huawei
Technologies Co. and Wanzhou Meng
You will recall that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping enjoyed a much
anticipated ''Truce'' Dinner at the G20 in Buenos Aires and quaffed a
Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] wine with their sirloin steaks and
finished it all off with caramel rolled pancakes, crispy chocolate and
fresh cream, a dinner that ran over by 60 minutes and one where the
dinner Guests broke out into spontaneous applause thereafter.

Home Thoughts

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Ruth Prawer Jhabvala and the Art of Ambivalence @NewYorker
Africa


At the beginning of 1962, a tall, thin-lipped thirty-three-year-old
named James Ivory and a charming, cleft-chinned twenty-five-year-old
named Ismail Merchant turned up on the doorstep of a bungalow on
Delhi’s Alipur Road. Ivory was a budding film director, Merchant a
budding film producer. Together, they were hoping to adapt a novel
called “The Householder,” a social satire of contemporary Delhi, and
had decided to approach the author to ask if she would help them turn
it into a film. Ruth Prawer Jhabvala, diminutive and dark-haired, did
not imagine herself to be a budding screenwriter. When they first
telephoned her, she pretended to be her mother-in-law to put them off.

“I told them I’ve never done anything like this before,” she later
recalled. “But they said, ‘It doesn’t matter. We haven’t, either.’ ”
The film made from her screenplay, which appeared the following year,
was the first feature for all three, but far from the last. In a
partnership spanning more than forty years, Merchant Ivory Productions
made more than twenty films written by Jhabvala, who won Oscars for
her adaptations of “A Room with a View” and “Howards End.”

At a party in 1949, Ruth met Cyrus Jhabvala, an Indian Parsi architect
who had come to England a few years earlier to study. Jhabvala had
already bought his ticket home, but by the time he set sail for India
he and Ruth were engaged. Two years later, having secured a job
lecturing on architecture at Delhi Polytechnic, he came back to
England to marry her, and the couple settled in Delhi.

From Austerity Britain, where “everything was pretty basic and grim
and grey,” the new Mrs. Jhabvala found herself transported to a “grand
fairy land, full of sights and sounds and colors,” as she related in a
later interview. There were exotic flowers, birds, and smells;
captivating music performed by female vocalists “who for me were
somehow an expression of everything a woman artist does”; and sweets
that she consumed by the pound, “the essence of all sweetness that
there ever could be.”

Jhabvala’s early fiction sauntered into middle-class Hindu households
and wryly took the measure of their dramatic capacity: shy newlyweds
and demanding mothers-in-law, pompous patresfamilias, feckless sons,
and snooping aunties. The opening stories of “At the End of the
Century” introduce Jhabvala’s remarkable economy of expression, devoid
of sandalwood-scented, curry-flavored, bangle-clanging exoticism.
Jhabvala sketches character, and by implication plot, in a few quick
flicks, as in a tale of two rivalrous brothers, the elder “with his
silk suit, his big ring, his oiled and scented hair,” and the younger
“puny and insignificant,” who works as a shop attendant “with just the
right mixture of dignity and obsequiousness.”
The nineteen-sixties brought a new wave of ebullient Westerners to
India to “find themselves,” and Jhabvala was waiting with a skewer.
“Which Yoga do you do? Hatha Yoga or Bhakti Yoga or what?” a European
seeker asks the Indian hero of “The Householder.” None, he confesses.
“Well you should,” she chides. “How do you think you’ll meet the
Eternal and the Infinite if you don’t?”
Yet when she met Swamiji she knew without a word being spoken that he
meant her to follow him back to India.” This will not end well for
her. In Jhabvala’s fiction, gurus are, to a man, grifting, lecherous,
manipulative—and successful. “ ‘I have many warm invitations from
America,’ Swamiji said. ‘From California especially.’ ”
New York captured in snatches of “street smells, petrol fumes, leaking
gas pipes, newly poured tar, pretzels, mangoes from Mexico, Chinese
noodles, overblown flowers”—

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"Those environments that we saw as 'wild' are not wild at all," said Vernet-Habasque. @guardian
Africa


From close up, all that is visible are some broken walls among the
scrubby brush, a mound covered by parched grass, a dry river gully.
But to Professor Karim Sadr and his team of archaeologists from
Johannesburg’s University of Witwatersrand, the ruins at Kweneng tell
an extraordinary story of a long-lost city.
New laser technology has revealed that Kweneng, about 50km (31 miles)
south of South Africa’s commercial capital, was once a thriving
metropolis with hundreds of households, a vast meeting place, scores
of walled family compounds and a bustling market. It was ruled over by
kings who regulated trade, waged wars against other similar city
states and settled disputes.
The discoveries are important not just for South Africa – which some
still claim was largely uninhabited before white settlers colonised
the western coast and then pushed inland – but the African continent
as a whole.
In recent decades researchers have conclusively shown that western
imperialists and historians who dismissed sub-Saharan Africa as a vast
wasteland awaiting “civilisation” by Europeans were entirely wrong.
Instead scholars have explored the riches, power and sophistication of
cities and civilisations such as Great Zimbabwe, the empire of Mali,
the kingdom of Benin and many others. Research has also revealed a
continent that was part of global systems of commercial and
intellectual exchange from the 15th century – well before the arrival
of Europeans.
A recent wave of research has gone further, revealing new layers of
complex commercial, agricultural and urban development.
“Now we understand that there was a network of settlements across very
large territories and trading connections. These didn’t have a single
major site and have left limited written or oral traces so have gone
under the radar,” said Thomas Vernet-Habasque, a Johannesburg-based
historian from the Sorbonne who is an expert on the history of
pre-colonial Africa.
Researchers point out that landscapes seen by tourists as representing
the “real Africa” in a pristine “natural” state are nothing of the
kind. Communities living in much of South Africa’s Kruger national
park were forcibly removed when it was established as a nature
reserve. Even the famous savannah across much of the continent has
been worked by man, with many plants relatively recent introductions
by local communities.
“Those environments that we saw as ‘wild’ are not wild at all,” said
Vernet-Habasque.

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President @realDonaldTrump doubled down on one of the biggest gambles of his presidency on Tuesday night with a televised appeal to pressure Congress into paying for his long-promised border wall @nytimes
Law & Politics


Embarking on a strategy that he himself privately disparaged as
unlikely to work, Mr. Trump devoted the first prime-time Oval Office
address of his presidency to his proposed barrier.
“President Trump must stop holding the American people hostage, must
stop manufacturing a crisis and must reopen the government,” Ms.
Pelosi said.
Yet privately, Mr. Trump dismissed his own new strategy as pointless.
In an off-the-record lunch with television anchors hours before the
address, he made clear in blunt terms that he was not inclined to give
the speech or go to Texas, but was talked into it by advisers,
according to two people briefed on the discussion who asked not to be
identified sharing details.
“It’s not going to change a damn thing, but I’m still doing it,” Mr.
Trump said of the border visit, according to one of the people, who
was in the room. The trip was just a photo opportunity, he said.
“But,” he added, gesturing at his communications aides, Bill Shine,
Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Kellyanne Conway, “these people behind you
say it’s worth it.”
“This is a humanitarian crisis — a crisis of the heart and a crisis of
the soul,” he said
 “At the request of Democrats, it will be a steel barrier rather than
a concrete wall,” he said
For all of the pyrotechnics of competing national speeches, it seemed
like a political Kabuki dance that by the end of the evening had
changed no minds in Washington.

Conclusions

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A growing number of Americans blame @POTUS for shutdown: @Reuters-@IpsosMORI poll
Law & Politics


51 percent of adults believe Trump “deserves most of the blame” for
the shutdown, which entered its 18th day on Tuesday. That is up 4
percentage points from a similar poll that ran from Dec. 21 to 25.
Another 32 percent blame congressional Democrats for the shutdown and
7 percent blame congressional Republicans, according to the poll.
Republicans, however, strongly support Trump’s pursuit of an expanded
border wall. They have consistently ranked immigration as their top
concern for the country.
Seventy-seven percent of Republicans said in the most recent poll that
they want additional border fencing, and 54 percent said they support
Trump shutting down the government until Congress approves funding for
the wall.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1468
Dollar Index 95.73
Japan Yen 108.86
Swiss Franc 0.9798
Pound 1.2745
Aussie 0.7158
India Rupee 70.445
South Korea Won 1122.06
Brazil Real 3.7135
Egypt Pound 17.9203
South Africa Rand 13.9212

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WTI crude #oil is back above $50 a barrel, up ~20% from its Decemeber low point @JavierBlas
Commodities


#Shale will benefit. Brent is up to nearly $60 a barrel | #OOTT #OPEC #Permian

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@Citi strategists are "now bearish" on emerging-market sovereign credit "as a whole" because of debt-service pressure @business
Emerging Markets


“Leading indicators point unanimously to a coming contraction in
global trade, one that may possibly begin in Q1 2019,” UBS strategists
including Bhanu Baweja wrote in an emailed note Monday. “If global
trade goes into recession, as we expect, emerging-market currencies
will see another round of depreciation.”
Citigroup strategists are “now bearish” on emerging-market sovereign
credit “as a whole” because of debt-service pressure. New sovereign
issuances may strain the bond markets that are already under pressure
from volatility in U.S. and global stock markets, they said.
“One of the monthly peaks in debt-service payments happens in March,
with $10.9 billion in the sovereign space and $7.7 billion on the
corporate-credit front,” strategists including Luis Costa wrote in
their note. “That may be particularly troublesome in January, given
the expected pipeline of new issuances on the sovereign front.”

Frontier Markets

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07-JAN-2019 :: Why DR Congo delayed election results @TheStarKenya
Africa


"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count
the votes." said Joseph Stalin.

The DR Congo held a long delayed election in December. Joseph Kabila
Kabange who besides sporting a whole new sartorial look of late has
been President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo since January
2001 and took office after the assassination of his father, President
Laurent-Désiré Kabila. Previously very cryptic and not prone to
engaging with the Press, President Kabila having anointed his
preferred successor Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was kicking back and
relaxing and giving ''exclusive'' interviews to all the World's Press
and in one interview alluded to Arnold Schwarzenegger's famous quote
''I'll be back.'' In fact, one report I read said he was proposing to
remain in the Presidential Palace and that his Dauphin Shadary would
occupy the residence of the Prime Minister. I have myself visited the
President's residence and on those premises sits a screen [broken and
frozen] from the era of President Joseph-Désiré Mobutu aka Mobutu Sese
Seko Kuku Ngbendu Wa Za Banga which screen was headlined the Bourse du
Valuers, which I was asked to rehabilitate and reinvigorate. I was a
little bit slow on the draw and did not appreciate the ''Dan Gertler''
style of operation, which required ponying up cash up front. I had a
Plan to turn the defunct Marche de Valeurs into a Bovespa [which by
the way is the only stock market in the world wide which is posting
record highs]. The Congo is enormously rich but since the days of King
Leopold through Mobutu through the Kabilas has been a country where
''L'etat c'est moi'' applies and its Citizens have had to exist in a
World which Joseph Conrad aptly pronounced as

“The horror! The horror!”  in his book the Heart of Darkness.

V.S. Naipaul, in his book A Bend in the River [whose departure point
was Conrad's The Heart of Darkness] wrote “It isn't that there's no
right and wrong here. There's no right.”

Today, the Congo is once again key to the Global Economy in the c21st.
Once it was about Rubber and today its all about Cobalt [Copper and
Lithium]. Erik Prince who is raising a $500mn Fund to invest in the
supply of these metals said to the Financial Times

“For all the talk of our virtual world, the innovation, you can’t
build those vehicles without minerals that come from generally weird,
hard-to-access places.”

''When I see the R&D budgets of all the major automakers ploughing
huge money into hybrid or electric vehicles, I believe the demand
curve for the unique minerals that make up an electric car and battery
technology will be enormously high over the coming years,” Mr Prince
said.

Returning to the Elections, whose results release has now been
delayed. According to Africa Confidential and others, the Catholic
Church [certainly the most trusted Institution in Congo and seriously
ubiquitous] all indications are that the Opposition led by Martin
Fayulu has won this all ends up.

''Early results – which the regime is banning the media from reporting
– indicate a win for the opposition after government plans to fix the
poll went awry'' said Africa Confidential. AC added The Bishops’
Conférence Episcopale Nationale du Congo (CENCO) had organised up to
40,000 election monitors to scrutinise the conduct of the poll and
conduct a parallel vote tabulation. CENCO did not name the winning
candidate publicly, but declared that he had polled over half of the
votes in the presidential election. Martin Fayulu is the unnamed
winning opposition candidate, Africa Confidential’s church sources
say.  Rival opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi and the ruling
coalition candidate Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary are trailing with around
20% each, we hear (AC Vol 59 No 25, The Twelve Fixes of Christmas).
All these figures, and the detailed calculations underlying them, were
provided by CENCO to diplomats in Kinshasa on 2 January. But the fix
was not thorough enough, sources in Shadary’s Front commun pour le
Congo (FCC) told Africa Confidential. They said control of the poll
was lost because they did not pay off enough election officials.

If President Kabila's Man is at only 20% with the entire State
Machinery at his beck and call, then we are talking about single
digits in reality.  Therefore, we are actually talking a compelling
Victory for Martin Fayulu, an open and shut case as it were. The
President's Advisor Barnabe Kikaya Bin Karubi pronounced that the
coalition "firmly deplores...the partisan, irresponsible and anarchic
attitude of CENCO."  President Kabila summoned the Catholic Bishops to
Kinshasa and told them he wants he wants to leave a “united and
peaceful” Congo [@rarrigz]. Democratic Republic of Congo's electoral
commission have said they can’t publish the results on Sunday as
planned to avoid political unrest and that the result will be revealed
"next week" after accusing the country's Catholic Church on Friday of
"preparing an insurrection" by saying it knows the winner.

The Author Jason Stearns 'Dancing in the Glory of Monsters' tweeted

This could unfold in many ways. I find it v hard to believe that
Kabila/Shadary will accept defeat and step down @jasonkstearns
I also don't think they will be able to rig elections and move on, as
we now know that the Catholic Church, opposition and civil society,
will put up a fight @jasonkstearns
The most likely scenario is a protracted, potentially violent standoff
that plays out over months in halls of power and in the streets. It
could spill over into armed mobilization in eastern DRC Many civilians
are likely to be killed in this scenario @jasonkstearns

If President Kabila is determined to instal his preferred Successor
and the AU [which has only once pronounced against an Election [2008
Zimbabwe]] or SADC or its neighbours are not prepared to enforce the
will of the People then I would argue that the US [which has already
positioned 80 personnel in the capital of Gabon, , "to be in position
to support the security of United States citizens, personnel, and
diplomatic facilities" in Congo's capital] should remove President
Kabila from the Congo and instal the rightful Winner at the request of
CENCO. I am not a Believer in Regime Change and in fact President
Assad is the first Leader to have managed to repel the Merchants of
regime Change [The point about Syria is that the ''HeadChoppers'' did
not represent the will of the People] but this is a clear cut case,
where the will of the People is being subverted. Its egregious, its
outrageous. And the US has a National Interest [economic as alluded to
above re Erik Prince comments]. This intervention fits neatly with
Ambassador John Bolton's new Africa Strategy and unlike Iraq where
Dick Cheney said

"We will be greeted as liberators, they will throw rose petals at our feet"

I can guarantee you the People of the Congo will throw rose petals at
your feet.

$750b of a Defence budget can be put to good use here. If President
Trump and his team from Ambassador John Bolton through to Secretary
Pompeo want to regain influence on this vast Continent, this is that
moment just like it was for Muhammed Ali many years ago in Kinshasa.

Memo from kRT State Ministry of Urban Planning indicating buses
for pro-govt ralley leave at 7:30am, attendance will be taken before
and after rally. Similar memos from other govt offices. Desperate
attempt to fabricate non-existent support #SudanUprising
#مدن_السودان_تنتفض @nubianomad

https://twitter.com/nubianomad/status/1082862578265669632

Let's see how today unfolds with parallel protests - one called
for by the Sudanese Professionals Association and a pro-govt one.
Clear signs that govt is planning to co-opt students and coercing
civil servants to attent #مدن_السودان_تنتفض #SudanUprising

https://twitter.com/nubianomad/status/1082861211887329286

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10 NOV 14 ::Ouagadougou's Signal to Sub-Sahara Africa
Africa


What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected
African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic
dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic
terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the
rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.
We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone
cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another
point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where
that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.
Therefore, the preeminent point to note is that protests in Burkina
Faso achieved escape velocity. Overthrowing incumbents is all about
acceleration, momentum and speed best characterised by the Ger- man
word ‘Blitzkrieg’.

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Mozambique Bribe Claims Could Void Debts, Law Professor Says @BBGAfrica
Africa


The arrest of Mozambique’s ex-finance minister and three former Credit
Suisse AG managers over alleged bribes could render void about $2
billion of project loans to the country, according to Mitu Gulati, a
law professor at Duke University in the U.S.
The projects, a tuna-fishing and coastal-protection system, were
created to enrich those involved, and at least $200 million of the
proceeds went to bribes and kickbacks, according to an indictment from
the U.S. Department of Justice.
The allegations in the indictment, unsealed on Jan. 3, show how the
scandal unfolded between 2013 and 2016 and could have significant
implications for the debts that Mozambique has been seeking to
restructure since 2016.
In response to emailed questions, Gulati, who has authored papers and
lectures on sovereign debt, said:
“The debtor probably has a good case to make that these were loans
infected with corruption (by the agents who contracted the loans) and,
therefore, voidable”
“Now, that does not exempt the debtor from having to give back the
funds that it did receive. But it is quite possibly an effective
argument to make to obtain a better settlement in a restructuring.”
(Mozambique didn’t receive any of the funds, as the banks that
arranged the loans, Credit Suisse and VTB Capital, paid the money
directly to the contractor in Abu Dhabi)
There are three projects and loans that make up the $2 billion
scandal. The first is a $727 million Eurobond that an initial $850
million loan for tuna-fishing boats was converted into. The others are
a $622 million loan to a state-owned company for a coastal-protection
system and a $535 million loan for shipyards. Both of these were
government-guaranteed.
The Eurobond holders may be at an advantage to the owners of the other
loans, according to Gulati:
“The conversion into the Eurobond makes things worse for the prospect
of mounting a defense. I fear that this is why this got converted into
a nice Eurobond -– modern money laundering.”
Matthias Goldmann, a senior research affiliate at the Max Planck
Institute in Heidelberg, Germany, had a similar opinion on the debts
in a Jan. 4 emailed response to queries:
“Under international law, in my view, the government does not need to
pay back anything. Investment tribunals would not grant protection if
corruption was involved in the conclusion of the deal. So corruption
charges are an independent reason to reject repayment.”
Credit Suisse and a group representing the majority of Eurobond
holders declined to comment. Mozambique’s advisers on the debt
restructuring, Lazard Freres SAS, didn’t respond to a request for
comment.
The loans have brought nothing but pain to Mozambique, one of the
poorest countries in the world. After the government in 2016 admitted
to the International Monetary Fund it had $1.4 billion of loans it had
previously denied, the lender froze financial support. Soon after, 14
donor countries also cut direct budget aid. The currency tanked and
inflation soared to more than 20 percent.
And the tuna boats are still rusting in the bay of Maputo, the
capital, having hardly caught any fish.

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Madagascar Court Declares Rajoelina Winner of Presidential Vote @business
Africa


Madagascar’s Constitutional Court declared Andry Rajoelina the winner
of last month’s runoff presidential election his rival says was
rigged.
Rajoelina, who previously served as president from 2009 to 2014,
obtained 55.7 percent of the vote, compared with 44.3 percent for Marc
Ravalomanana, Jean-Eric Rakotoarisoa, the president of the court, told
reporters Tuesday in the capital, Antananarivo. Rajoelina will be
sworn in later this month, he said.
The announcement is based on results compiled by the Indian Ocean
island nation’s electoral commission and comes after a review of fraud
claims filed by Ravalomanana since the end of vote count last month.
Millionaire businessman Ravalomanana led the country, which is the
world’s biggest producer of vanilla, from 2002 to 2009 before being
overthrown in a coup by Rajoelina, a former nightclub DJ and ex-mayor
of Antananarivo. Both men were banned from contesting the 2013
election as part of an international agreement to end a political
crisis in the nation.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -1.08% 2018
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.9212

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.92

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.44% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +0.40% 2018

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Lawmaker seeks JP @MagufuliJP intervention in cashews Citizen Tanzania
Africa


Tanzania farmers in trouble: gov hasn't paid them for cashew crops
bought by Pres Magufuli when he was mad at low market price for nuts.
Corruption & farmers beaten by security forces alleged, which gov dismisses.

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Fracture in Kenyan Ruling Party May Revive Rift Valley Tensions @business' @herbling
Kenyan Economy


An alliance that helped deliver Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta two
terms in office is fracturing, reviving tensions in the country’s Rift
Valley region that was wracked by widespread violence a decade ago.
The deputy chairman of the ruling Jubilee Party stepped down on Sunday
after saying Deputy President William Ruto shouldn’t be allowed to
succeed Kenyatta. That undermines an arrangement in which Ruto
delivered the backing of his Rift Valley constituents for Kenyatta’s
elections in 2013 and 2017, in return for assistance from the
president’s supporters in the next vote in 2022.
The schism in the Jubilee Party has brought to the fore long-held
mistrust that many in the party have of Ruto, said Nic Cheeseman,
professor of democracy at the University of Birmingham and author of
How to Rig an Election. Ruto and Kenyatta were on opposite sides of a
disputed 2007 election that triggered ethnic fighting in which more
than 1,000 people died.
“Many people in the ruling coalition find it difficult to handle or
support Ruto,” he said. “Many do not trust him and still believe that
he was to blame for some of the violence. This makes Ruto a hard sell
for both ruling party leaders and many of its supporters.”
Both Ruto and Kenyatta were indicted by the International Criminal
Court on charges of crimes against humanity related to the
post-election fighting. The cases collapsed over a lack of evidence
and the two agreed to run together in the two subsequent elections.
The threat of a split in the party is already heightening tensions in
Rift Valley, where much of the 2007 ethnic conflict happened,
according to Murithi Mutiga, a senior analyst at the International
Crisis Group.
“This is still a divided country because the hostilities of 2007 were
never settled,” Mutiga said. “They were postponed by the temporary
union of Uhuru and Ruto, but the Rift Valley is still a powder keg.”
Jubilee Vice Chairman David Murathe resigned abruptly on Sunday, a day
after vowing to do anything he can to stop Ruto succeeding Kenyatta.
On Monday, he told the Nairobi-based Star newspaper he’ll form a new
political movement for party members opposed to Ruto.
Ruto’s spokesman David Mugonyi declined to comment, while calls to
Murathe’s mobile phone went unanswered.
In Kenya’s ethnically tinged politics, some members of Kenyatta’s
Kikuyu community want to see another leader replace him in 2022,
rather than hand power to Ruto, an ethnic Kalenjin, according to
Cheeseman.
The Kikuyu are Kenya’s biggest community, while the Kalenjin are the
third-largest. Three of Kenya’s four presidents since independence in
1963 have been Kikuyu, while one was Kalenjin. The East African nation
has more than 40 ethnic groups.
The new party will likely form a coalition with former Prime Minister
Raila Odinga, the paper said, without citing anyone. Odinga, a member
of the Luo community, bitterly contested his loss in elections in 2013
and 2017 to Kenyatta.
The two have since reconciled. The March 2018 rapprochement, known as
“The Handshake,” removed Ruto as the favorite to succeed Kenyatta,
according to Herman Manyora, a University of Nairobi lecturer and
political analyst.
“The handshake changed the matrix,” Manyora said. “It’s now just a
matter of time and Ruto’s position as deputy president will be no
longer tenable. He may remain in office, just hanging onto the title,
but will have effectively lost all power.”

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N.S.E Today


US China Talks wrapped up today.
Last time at the Truce Dinner in Buenos Aires after quaffing a Catena
Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] wine with their sirloin steaks and
finished all of with caramel rolled pancakes, crispy chocolate and
fresh cream, a dinner  which ran over by 60 minutes and one where the
dinner Guests broke out into spontaneous applause thereafter.
I am not sure if spontaneous applause broke out after these Talks.
International Equity Markets after experiencing their worse December
since 1931 ave experienced their best start to the Year for decades.
How long this will last is anyone's guess.
President Trump made a widely anticipated speech about the Border Wall
but this is the politics of signalling. because as per the New York
Times privately, Mr. Trump dismissed his own new strategy as
pointless.
Economic Data points are slumping every were you care to look and
Germany will certainly have entered a recession in Q4
I told Aljazeera in an interview "What we're watching across this
continent - whether it's Gabon, Sudan, or DR Congo - is a kind of
tipping point moment," he said.
Everyone is awaiting DR Congo election results and the Street in Sudan.
WTI Crude has recovered 20% from last years lows and has topped $50.00 a barrel.
The collapse in the Oil Price [not seen at the Pump because more 50%
of the price is taxes] and surging remittances lifted the Shilling
last year to be the best performing currencies in the World and the
only African currency to appreciate against the Dollar last year.
You might not have known that because the entire media in Kenya dusts
off the same article every year about how its set to depreciate 15%.
Its remarkable ''Group Think''
The Shilling was last at 101.87.
The Securities Exchange suffered a ''glitch'' yesterday but has
returned to normalcy today but it remains slashed and burned and in a
bear market
The domestic politics have self-evidently become more volatile how
this plays with the market we will discover over the next sessions.
The Nairobi All Share rose +0.44 points to close at 139.31
The Nairobi NSE20 closed -10.87 points at 2769.87.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom rose 1.3636% to close at 22.30 on easy volume action of
21.758m shares worth 485.462m. Safaricom had become very oversold and
the rebound internationally surely encouraged Buyers to scoop up cheap
shares. Near Term Price Target is 24.50 and a break of that would
signal Bulls are back in charge.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Group rallied +2.96% to close out at 34.75 and was trading at
session highs of 35.50 +5.19% at the closing Bell and traded 1.243m
shares. I am sure Dr. Mwangi is keeping an eye on events unfolding in
the DR Congo, which subsidiary posted some parabolic growth numbers
through Q3 2018.

KCB
which was cited as a Frontier markets Buy In a survey conducted by
Citibank because of its undemanding valuation (0.9x 2019e PB vs a 22%
2019e ROE) eased -0.13% to close at 37.35 and traded 1.002m shares.

Citi added  “Furthermore since we expect movement on the Banking Act
(rate caps) in the second half of 2019, we find the banks valuation
offers an upside from today’s levels under both the scenario of caps
remaining unchanged (+30%) and being amended (+55%),” in its Frontiers
Markets research.

I am not certain that The Rate Caps will be lifted in 2019 because its
a very complex political Needle that needs threading.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL [which has been cited by Citi as a ''Must-Have'' Frontier markets
stock] corrected -2.65% to close at 165.00 and traded 904,100 shares
worth 149.318m.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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