22nd March 2019
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 23rd of January 2019
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
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Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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Cash was the only +ve returning asset in 2018 @zerohedge
Africa


One year ago today, Ray Dalio said "If you're holding cash, you're
going to feel pretty stupid"

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24-DEC-2018 :: The best Trade in 2018 was in fact to hold Dollar Cash [the defining theme in 2018 was the Dollar. Dollar Cash]
Africa


The best Trade in 2018 was in fact to hold Dollar Cash, which makes
perfect sense when you consider that the US FED dialled up interest
rates to 2.25%-2.50% and dialled down their balance sheet. Many Folks
have been seized with the prospect of replacing the King Dollar from
Venezuela's Maduro and his ''Petro'' crypto currency to many others
too various to mention. However, what is clear is that the defining
theme in 2018 was the Dollar. Dollar Cash.

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A boy who dreams strange dreams is taken to work for his 'uncle', a prosperous merchant on the coast.
Africa


One of the first things he learns is that the merchant is not his
uncle: Yusuf has been sold into bondage to pay his father's debt.

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The First Lie of the Trump Presidency @TheAtlantic
Law & Politics


“This was the largest audience to ever witness an
inauguration—period—both in person and around the globe.”
The whole thing had the air of incantation. Its foolishness might have
been funny, had the attempt at weaponized magic not also suggested one
of the darkest elements of the Trump presidency: its radiating
conviction that truth itself can be remade in the shape of its leader.

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Salvator Mundi ("Savior of the World") Jesus, in Renaissance dress, giving a benediction with his right hand raised and two fingers extended, while holding a transparent rock crystal orb in his left hand
Africa


Salvator Mundi which is a painting of Christ as Salvator Mundi (Latin
for "Savior of the World")  dated to c. 1500. The painting shows
Jesus, in Renaissance dress, giving a benediction with his right hand
raised and two fingers extended, while holding a transparent rock
crystal orb in his left hand. The rock crystal orb of course
reappeared during Trump's visit to the Desert Kingdom.

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10-DEC-2018 :: Truce dinner @Huawei
Law & Politics


Sirloin steaks, Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] Huawei
Technologies Co. and Wanzhou Meng

You will recall that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping enjoyed a much
anticipated ''Truce'' Dinner at the G20 in Buenos Aires and quaffed a
Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] wine with their sirloin steaks and
finished it all off with caramel rolled pancakes, crispy chocolate and
fresh cream, a dinner that ran over by 60 minutes and one where the
dinner Guests broke out into spontaneous applause thereafter.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1357
Dollar Index 96.34
Japan Yen 109.58
Swiss Franc 0.9978
Pound 1.2962
Aussie 0.7131
India Rupee
South Korea Won 71.250
Brazil Real 3.8152
Egypt Pound 17.92
South Africa Rand 13.9714

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Crude Oil Chart INO 53.20
Commodities


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Russia: Vladimir Putin's pivot to Africa @FinancialTimes
Africa


As protests raged in Zimbabwe’s cities last week, with police firing
live ammunition at crowds who barricaded roads with burning tyres, the
target of their anger was 8,000km away. President Emmerson Mnangagwa,
who had sparked the unrest by raising fuel prices amid an economic
crisis in the southern African country, was instead strolling through
the Kremlin for talks with President Vladimir Putin, the first of what
Moscow hopes will be many visits by African leaders this year. Amid
deteriorating relations with western countries, a diplomatic campaign
to win new friends and partners in Africa is at the forefront of a
sweeping foreign policy pivot by Moscow, as it seeks fresh alliances
to bolster its global geopolitical clout. From Algeria to Uganda,
Russia is building influence in Africa, lending support to embattled
strongmen, taking on natural resource projects in conflict-racked
states and positioning itself as a new powerbroker without the baggage
of former colonial powers.
As well as warm words from Mr Putin, Mr Mnangagwa left Moscow with
something more tangible — agreements for Russian investment in
Zimbabwe’s diamond industry, a fertiliser supply contract and two
financing deals worth $267m. While lacking the financial firepower of
China or the longstanding trade relations of former colonial powers,
Russia has sought to use its military exports, security apparatus and
state-controlled natural resource companies to gain footholds across
the continent. Across Africa, Moscow has deployed teams of military
instructors to train elite presidential guards, sent arms shipments
and assisted shaky autocrats with election strategies. It has also
promised to build nuclear power plants and develop oil wells and
diamond mines. These diplomatic outreaches to old Soviet allies or
countries previously overlooked by Moscow are aimed at both increasing
its sway and unsettling rivals such as the US, Britain and France in a
region where they have long held influence.
Christian Malanga, an opposition politician in the Democratic Republic
of Congo where Moscow has hailed Felix Tshisekedi as the winner of the
recent presidential election despite evidence of voting fraud, says
Russia was building on old Soviet ties. “It’s the cold war 2.0,” he
says, adding that Russia complemented China in what he saw as a
strategy to challenge western influence. “China is the money and
Russia is the muscle.”
The need for new alliances has become acute since 2014, when western
sanctions were imposed against Moscow after its annexation of Crimea.
“Russia has been re-evaluating its diplomatic policy since the western
sanctions came into effect,” says Olga Kulkova, senior fellow at the
Africa Institute of Russia’s Academy of Sciences. “Moscow realised it
needs new partners.
“Russia has managed to jump into the last carriage, all our partners
are already there. But it can compete well by offering both unique and
cheaper services to African nations,” she adds.
Western countries are taking note. In December, US national security
adviser John Bolton announced a new strategy to combat Russia and
China in Africa, accusing Moscow of buying off African nations.
“The predatory practices pursued by China and Russia stunt economic
growth in Africa, threaten the financial independence of African
nations . . . and pose a significant threat to US national security
interests,” he said.
It was the brutal murder of three Russian investigative journalists in
the Central African Republic last July that thrust Moscow’s African
endeavours into the spotlight. Shot dead in an attack on their jeep
while driving through the countryside, the reporters were
investigating the activities of Wagner, a Russian paramilitary
company, in a country where Moscow has expanded its presence rapidly
over recent years. Their murders, which local officials blamed on a
robbery but subsequent Russian investigative reports suggest may have
been orchestrated, focused international attention on the role of
Russian security assets — both state and private — in the Kremlin’s
outreach to African countries.
“Western analysts, myself included, only really woke up to this at the
sudden appearance of significant clusters of Russian armed men,” says
Alex Vines, head of the Africa programme at the Chatham House
think-tank in London. “It was like: ‘My God, what have we missed and
why have we missed this?’”
Moscow has sent planeloads of arms to the country, alongside five
armed forces personnel and more than 200 private military contractors
to train hundreds of elite troops. Valery Zakharov, a former Russian
intelligence official, is the national security adviser to CAR
president Faustin-Archange Touadéra, and Russia is setting up a team
inside CAR’s defence ministry. This month, during a visit to Russia,
CAR’s defence minister told state media that there was a “possibility”
of Moscow opening a full military base in the country. Such actions
have unnerved France, CAR’s former colonial ruler and traditionally
its most prominent foreign ally. Roland Marchal, a Russia-Africa
expert at Sciences Po, says Moscow’s approach of supporting African
leaders through government-backed defence and industrial deals is
straight out of the “Françafrique” playbook of the 1970s and 1980s,
when the state and commercial interests of Paris were intertwined.
“It’s pure Françafrique. Change the flag and you have the same
methodology,” he adds.
A senior European diplomat in Moscow says: “We don’t know exactly what
they are doing in the Central African Republic, but we don’t like it
too much. We are not sure that the [CAR] government is completely
controlling everything.”
While the Central African Republic has dominated the headlines,
Russia’s activity is increasing across the continent. In 2017,
Russia’s trade with Africa rose 26 per cent to $17.4bn.
Russia sold twice as much weaponry to African countries in 2017 as it
did in 2012, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute. Between 2013 and 2017, Russia supplied 39 per cent of
Africa’s imported arms — compared with 17 per cent from China and 11
per cent from the US.
In 2014, Zimbabwe concluded an arms-for-platinum deal with Russia
worth a reported $3bn, bypassing both a European arms embargo and its
lack of hard currency to swap rights to the Darwendale platinum
concession for the provision of an undisclosed number of MiG-35
fighter jets.
The list of Russian commercial engagements with Africa is long.
Russian aluminium group Rusal mines bauxite in Guinea. Alrosa, the
Kremlin-controlled diamond miner planning to enter Zimbabwe, already
has assets in Angola and Botswana.
Rosatom, the state-run nuclear monopoly, is working in Zambia and
Rwanda. Russian geologists are active in Madagascar, Algeria, Libya
and Ghana. Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company, is developing oil
and gasfields in Egypt, Mozambique and Algeria, and rival Lukoil has
projects in Nigeria, Ghana and Cameroon.
“Moscow and Beijing are clearly competitors over natural resources,
but the Russians will not beat China in Africa,” says Mr Vines. “It is
minor league in comparison.
“But with the US retreat, there is space for Moscow to be mischievous.
It is about optics and, to a certain extent, smoke and mirrors to
present itself as a global power,” he adds. “The Russians are looking
for areas where they can unnerve western opponents . . . some of whom
are truly shocked at what is happening.”
Take South Africa. Last October, former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene
told an inquiry into so-called “state capture” that he had been sacked
in 2015 because of his refusal to sign guarantees for a R1tn ($70bn)
nuclear deal with Rosatom . His replacement with someone considered
more pliable triggered such a sharp fall in the rand that the incident
came to be known as “Nenegate”.
Mr Nene said the deal would have been ruinous for South Africa, but
would have benefited some of former president Jacob Zuma’s associates,
including the Gupta family at the centre of allegations of state
capture. The Guptas owned a uranium deposit, though both they and Mr
Zuma have denied any wrongdoing.
In 2015, Mr Zuma flew to Russia for emergency medical treatment, and
it was during his recovery that he is reported to have struck the
nuclear deal with Mr Putin.
“Russia had never had a very strong presence in South Africa until
Zuma got into power,” says Lumkile Mondi, a senior lecturer at the
University of Witwatersrand. “Through him they were trying to get in
and gain control, given that historically the Anglo-American countries
have been our partners. Then the Brics countries came in and Russia
wanted a piece of the pie.”
While Moscow is keen to build new relationships, it is no stranger to
the region. During the cold war, the Soviet Union had strong ties with
various African states, supporting independence movements aimed at
dislodging western colonial powers. João Lourenço, Angola’s president,
studied at the elite Lenin Political-Military Academy in the late
1970s, and it was the Soviet Union’s 1956 support for Egypt in the
Suez Canal crisis that helped to force the UK, France and Israel to
abandon their military action.
Moscow has made this legacy a central pillar in its African outreach,
contrasting its history of engagement with that of former colonial
powers.
“Russian-African relations have a rich history, while, unlike the
former global powers, Russia has not tainted itself with the crimes of
slavery and colonialism,” the Russian foreign ministry says in a
statement. “In the middle of the last century, our country actively
contributed to the achievement of national independence and
sovereignty of African countries . . . Many African leaders are well
aware of this.”
Alongside this, Moscow is also willing to sidestep issues such as
demands for reform or human rights protection — a tactic that it has
effectively deployed in recent years to build strong ties in the
Middle East.
“In Africa they present themselves as mediators, as honest brokers,”
says the senior western diplomat. “You see a common thread across
Angola, DRC, Mozambique. It’s obvious — they are repeating their
successful Middle East strategy and seeking to mine the Soviet
legacy.”
Sergei Lavrov, foreign minister, said last week that Russia did not
agree with outside countries calling for an investigation into the
presidential election in Congo, which data published by the FT show
was fraudulent.
“We do not interfere with elections,” Mr Lavrov said. “The Congolese
people can handle this on their own and it is important not to impose
this or that agreement as is normally done by France, the US and other
former colonial powers.”
Leaders such as Joseph Kabila, who is set to step down as president of
Congo, see Russia as a way around the west’s tough requirements on
transparency and governance, says Mr Malanga, the opposition Congolese
politician. “All the actors like him are turning back to Russia. We’ve
seen that in Venezuela and with Assad in Syria and that’s basically
what African leaders are looking for today.”
This month, Russia’s ambassador to Guinea — a country that had close
relations with the Soviet Union — suggested that President Alpha Condé
could change the constitution to stay in power for a third term.
“Constitutions are no dogma, Bible or Koran,” said ambassador
Alexander Bregadze. “Guinea needs you today. And as the popular
Russian saying goes, you don’t change horses at a river crossing.”
Moscow hopes that Mr Mnangagwa’s three-day visit will not be his only
trip to Russia in 2019. The Kremlin is hard at work arranging its
first Russia-Africa summit this year. As the most prominent example of
its outreach to the continent, it is aware that its success will be
judged by the number of heads of state that make the trip north.
“Zimbabwe is under the yoke of sanctions imposed by western
countries,” Mr Mnangagwa told Mr Putin in the Kremlin. “However,
through these days of isolation, you, Russia, have remained with us as
a reliable partner.”

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05-DEC-2016:: Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries are his information victims.
Africa


At this moment, President Putin has Fortress Europe surrounded. The
intellectual father of the new Zeitgeist that propelled Brexit, Le
Pen, the Five Star movement in Italy, Gert Wilders in the Netherlands,
is Vladimir Putin. In the Middle East, it is Putin who is calling the
shots in Aleppo, and in a quite delicious irony it looks like he has
pocketed Opec as well.

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OCT 15 :: Putin is a GeoPolitical GrandMaster
Africa


Let us return to UNGA, where Putin set out his stall and I quote: ‘’I
cannot help asking those who have caused the situation, do you realise
now what you’ve done?’’
Within 24 hours of delivering that speech, Russia instructed that the
US should vacate Syrian Air Space. This message was not delivered to
Ashton Carter by his Russian counterpart Shoigu.
The speed of execution confirms that Russia is once again a
geopolitical actor that will have to be considered. It is a
breath-taking rebound.

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Meanwhile, speculation swirled over an attempt by members of Mr Mnangagwa's Zanu-PF party to oust him from office. FT
Africa


Mnangagwa loyalists in the ruling party said unnamed opponents had
failed to muster the numbers needed to unseat him in an impeachment
motion.
“They threatened to kill me and my family . . . the plot is foiled,
they lack numbers for impeachment,” Justice Mayor Wadyajena, an MP and
ally of Mr Mnangagwa, said.
Terence Mukupe, another loyalist Zanu-PF MP, said: “Come get me and do
as you please but my president is not going anywhere.”

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The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between high Inflation and revolutionary conditions
Africa


A further dive into the Inflation data and you will note some serious,
non-linear inflation spikes. In Bashir's Sudan Inflation rose to
72.94% in December. In Zimbabwe, Inflation clocked 42.1% in December
[nothing close to The peak month of hyperinflation which occurred in
mid-November 2008 when the rate was estimated at 79,600,000,000% per
month]. DR Congo is somewhere around 25% but data is difficult to
gather as you would expect.

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Andy Warhol's 200 One Dollar Bills
Africa


Think the art market is dead? Think again! Andy Warhol’s silk-screen
painting 200 One Dollar Bills sold for $43.8 million at Sotheby’s
today, more than four times its estimated selling price

"Money is accordingly a system of mutual trust, and not just any
system of mutual trust: money is the most universal and most efficient
system of mutual trust ever devised." -
“Cowry shells and dollars have value only in our common imagination.
Their worth is not inherent in the chemical structure of the shells
and paper, or their colour, or their shape. In other words, money
isn’t a material reality – it is a psychological construct. It works
by converting matter into mind.”

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Shah of Shahs (Penguin Modern Classics): Ryszard Kapuscinski
Africa


Singing an old Sudanese revolutionary song: “we sing in our prison as
you tremble in your castle” "نغني و نحن في اسرك و ترجف وأنت في قصرك"
#SudanUprising #مدن_السودان_تنفض
http://bit.ly/2HpgrVE

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South Africa's Ramaphosa calls for lifting of sanctions on Zimbabwe @ReutersAfrica
Africa


South African President Cyril Ramaphosa called on Tuesday for
sanctions against Zimbabwe to be lifted and said his government was in
discussions with Harare about how best to help.
He said Zimbabwe’s situation was a challenge for the whole of Africa
and he planned to meet its President Emmerson Mnangagwa at a later
stage.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +2.54% 2019
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.9715

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.92

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -2.21% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -2.53% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Kenya seeks proposals for issuance of $2.5 bln Eurobond -source Reuters
Kenyan Economy


NAIROBI, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Kenya is engaging with lenders over a plan
to issue a $2.5 billion eurobond denominated either in euros or
dollars, a banking source said on Wednesday.

“They want to assess whether it would be cheaper to borrow in euros or
dollars. A number of banks submitted their interest last week, their
technical capabilities,” the source told Reuters. (Reporting by Duncan
Miriri Editing by Andrew Heavens)

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +3.43% 2019

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +1.30% 2019

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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