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Thursday 31st of January 2019
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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Love is a fire that burns unseen - Poem by Luis de Camoes
Africa


Love is a fire that burns unseen,
a wound that aches yet isn't felt,
an always discontent contentment,
a pain that rages without hurting,

a longing for nothing but to long,
a loneliness in the midst of people,
a never feeling pleased when pleased,
a passion that gains when lost in thought.

It's being enslaved of your own free will;
it's counting your defeat a victory;
it's staying loyal to your killer.

But if it's so self-contradictory,
how can Love, when Love chooses,
bring human hearts into sympathy?

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Renate Wasinger (Germany ) #Photography @ArtLify
Africa


"Here at the quiet limit of the world,
A white-hair’d shadow roaming like a dream
The ever-silent spaces..."
 ~ Alfred Lord Tennyson, (1809-1892)

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10-DEC-2018 :: Truce dinner @Huawei
Law & Politics


Sirloin steaks, Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] Huawei
Technologies Co. and Wanzhou Meng

You will recall that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping enjoyed a much
anticipated ''Truce'' Dinner at the G20 in Buenos Aires and quaffed a
Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] wine with their sirloin steaks and
finished it all off with caramel rolled pancakes, crispy chocolate and
fresh cream, a dinner that ran over by 60 minutes and one where the
dinner Guests broke out into spontaneous applause thereafter.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1505
Dollar Index 95.20
Japan Yen 108.65
Swiss Franc 0.9924
Pound 1.3141
Aussie 0.7275
India Rupee 71.0505
South Korea Won 1113.41
Brazil Real 3.6850
Egypt Pound 17.67
South Africa Rand 13.37

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Stopping a thief The world should not recognise Congo's stolen election @TheEconomist
Africa


When the constitutional court declared him the next president of the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Félix Tshisekedi toasted his victory
with a glass of champagne. He was due to be inaugurated as The
Economist went to press. Optimists chirp that this is Congo’s first
peaceful transfer of power since independence in 1960. South Africa’s
president, Cyril Ramaphosa, congratulated Mr Tshisekedi and urged “all
stakeholders” to accept the result and “continue with a journey of
consolidating peace, uniting the people of Congo, and creating a
better life for all”.

What a travesty. The election was really won by Martin Fayulu, a
former oil executive—and by a wide margin. Bishops from the Catholic
church, one of Congo’s few functional and respected institutions, sent
out 40,000 observers. According to their tally Mr Fayulu won more than
60% of the vote. This matched data leaked by officials, which showed
that 59% backed him. Mr Tshisekedi came a distant second with 19% of
the vote. Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, a former interior minister
handpicked to succeed Joseph Kabila, the unpopular incumbent, won a
paltry 18.5% (see Middle East & Africa section).

It is hard to exaggerate the scale and flagrancy of the fraud. Before
the vote, the Kabila regime used all its powers to nobble the
opposition, barring popular candidates, banning rallies, firing on
crowds and using state resources to promote the hapless Mr Shadary.
When that was not enough, because voters are thoroughly sick of their
corrupt, incompetent rulers, the count was rigged. Declaring Mr
Shadary the winner would not have passed the laugh test, so Mr
Tshisekedi, the callow son of a revered opposition leader who died in
2017, was tapped instead. Many suspect a stitch-up. Mr Kabila’s party
still controls the national assembly. Mr Tshisekedi says they can work
together. Mr Fayulu, by contrast, seemed more likely to investigate
the graft that flourished during the 18 years that Mr Kabila was in
charge. Small wonder the establishment fears him.

At first the stolen election prompted a sharp response from the
African Union (au), a regional body. After the electoral commission
announced the result but before the constitutional court endorsed it,
the au called on Congo to hold off on declaring Mr Tshisekedi the
winner, adding that it would send a delegation of regional leaders to
investigate. The Southern African Development Community (sadc), of
which Congo is a member, called for a recount. But after the court,
packed with government stooges, declared Mr Tshisekedi the victor,
sadc backed down almost immediately. The au and many Western
governments seem willing to turn a blind eye, too.

Some argue that a transition, no matter how flawed, will break Mr
Kabila’s hold on the country and set a precedent for cleaner elections
in five years. Others are more cynical. There is little they can do
for Congo, they shrug. It is vast, poor, violent and practically
roadless. It has never been well or honestly governed. Not only is it
pointless to make a fuss; it might make matters worse. Calls for a
recount might spark violence, some fear. This is not an idle worry.
Congo’s most recent full-blown civil war, from 1998 to 2003, sucked in
nine countries and caused perhaps 1m-5m deaths (mostly from
war-induced starvation and disease), depending on which estimate you
believe. Thanks to more recent fighting between mass-raping militias,
some 4m of Congo’s roughly 80m people have fled their homes and 13m
desperately need humanitarian aid. Rather than get embroiled in this
mess, many leaders of other countries would prefer to grapple with
troubles back home.

Yet there are costs to ignoring Congo’s great election robbery.
Calling Mr Tshisekedi the winner fools no one. Mr Fayulu’s supporters
are justifiably outraged. Mr Kabila’s rich cronies are not happy,
either—they had hoped that he could rig the poll more competently.
Congo now has an illegitimate regime, riven with internal bickering,
ineptly running a country in severe economic distress. That is hardly
a recipe for stability, as riots and repression in Zimbabwe
demonstrate.

Democracy is beleaguered across the world. If even its supporters,
such as Mr Ramaphosa, do not speak up when an election is
ostentatiously filched, autocrats everywhere are emboldened. The au is
not completely powerless. After it adopted a “zero-tolerance” policy
for coups in 2000, the number of successful military takeovers in
Africa fell, from 38 between 1980 and 2000 to only 15 since then. The
policy is inconsistently applied. The au pretended to believe that the
coup against Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe in 2017 was not a coup (and
that the election that replaced him with Emmerson Mnangagwa was fair).
Zimbabwe under Mr Mnangagwa is in turmoil. Far better to call a coup a
coup and a stolen election stolen. No one should recognise Mr
Tshisekedi’s election. Africa will not be stable until Africans freely
choose their rulers.

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07-JAN-2019 :: this is a clear cut case, where the will of the people is being subverted. It's egregious, outrageous.
Africa


 “We will be greeted as liberators, they will throw rose petals at our feet.”
I can guarantee you the people of the Congo will throw rose petals at your feet.

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This is from Wilson VornDick, a commander in the U.S. Navy Reserve, writing in the National Interest: H/T @Kopolo
Africa


It is unclear whether China could handle the financial repercussions
of a larger, more systemic default or debt-forgiveness program across
the African continent. Seeking relief, debtors to China would likely
overwhelm existing mechanisms, like international arbitration, or
China-backed forums such as the Export-Import Bank of China , China
Development Bank , and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank . More
importantly, debt restructuring, recoupment, and, in the more extreme
case, seizure may not be viable, reasonable, or sustainable for
Chinese interests or presence continent-wide. Just such a dire
economic scenario might push China to use its nascent military force
to protect or even seize its interests. Looking back at the previous
period of Great Power Competition more than a century ago, leveraging
military might to force repayment was commonplace. The U.S. military
made multiple incursions into Caribbean and South American nations as
did the Western powers in Africa and Asia.

It is reasonable to assume that China would have little or no
experience in any dire economic contagion across Africa. The one
primary example, the take-over of Hambantota Port, was an isolated
incident during calmer times, before the financial uncertainty stoked
by a slowing global economy or the current U.S.-China trade war.
Moreover, the port takeover has now become a watershed moment in
Chinese behavior that has attracted significant international scrutiny
and ire.

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EABL has rallied +21.173% YTD 2019 share price data here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           211.75
Total Shares Issued:          790774356.00
Market Capitalization: $1.662b
EPS:             7.19
PE:                 29.451

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East African Breweries Limited (EABL) has borrowed Sh11.5 billion from Kenyan units of Standard Chartered and Stanbic banks to pay off a similar-sized loan taken from its London-based parent Diageo.
Kenyan Economy


“It (EABL) fully repaid the loan and refinanced it locally in Kenya
Shillings at the same terms. The restructure will enable EABL to pay
close to the effective corporate tax rate of 30 percent going
forward,” said SIB in its research note.
Banking sources identified StanChart  and Stanbic Kenya as the lenders
of the new loan. Stanbic, however, declined to disclose the specific
amount it advanced to the brewer.
The Diageo loan, which was unsecured, was priced at an interest rate
of two percent above the defunct Kenya Bankers’ Reference Rate (KBRR).

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@SafaricomPLC share price data
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           23.70
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:      $9.429b
EPS:             1.38
PE:                 17.174

Safaricom HY results for the period ended 30th September 2018 vs. 30th
September 2017
HY Mpesa Revenue 35.52b vs. 30.05b +18.2%

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@nicbankkenya will merge with the country's biggest privately-owned bank @CBA_Group_, the chairman of NIC announced on Thursday. #Merger2019 @bankelele @ReutersAfrica
Kenyan Economy


Kenya’s NIC will merge with the country’s biggest privately-owned bank
Commercial Bank of Africa (CBA), the chairman of NIC announced on
Thursday.
James Ndegwa did not offer a timeline for the merger, but told
journalists “today we announce our intention to merge NIC Group and
CBA Group”

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@nicbankkenya share price data here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           29.10
Total Shares Issued:          639945603.00
Market Capitalization:        18,622,417,047
EPS:             6.48
PE:                 4.491

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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