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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 11th of February 2019
 
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Africa

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The lover becomes the thing he loves...
Africa


Transforma-se o amador na cousa amada,
Por virtude do muito imaginar;
Não tenho, logo, mais que desejar,
Pois em mim tenho a parte desejada.

The lover becomes the thing he loves
By virtue of much imagining;
Since what I long for is already in me,
The act of longing should be enough.

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In Australia in recent decades, the bilby, the bettong, or rat kangaroo, the brush-tailed possum and other medium-sized mammals all disappeared from the Western Desert.
Africa


But ask the people who lived in this desert for 48,000 years what
happened and many will tell you: They left.

“A lot of Martu people say that if there’s no people out in the
country, then all the animals become absent. When the people and
animals are absent, then the country becomes sick or unwell. There’s
no balance there,” said Curtis Taylor, a filmmaker and young leader of
the Martu community.

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Africa


Warhol’s paintings present the glamour of celebrity on a continuum
with nightmarish American imagery: grisly car crashes, electric
chairs, race riots. The flashbulb equally illuminated all

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@NicolasMaduro is defiant. "The coup d'etat they wanted has failed and they haven't noticed," he said on February 2nd @TheEconomist
Law & Politics


“The coup d’état they wanted has failed and they haven’t noticed,” he
said on February 2nd. The longer this stand-off lasts, the greater the
risks. One is that a frustrated American administration turns to
military force, something that Donald Trump this month said remains
“an option”. The other is that Mr Maduro survives in office, but rules
a wasteland.

The strategy of Mr Guaidó and the Trump administration is broadly
backed by the Lima group of Latin American countries and Canada, and
by much of the European Union. It combines a carrot, a stick and a
conjuring trick, all aimed at persuading Venezuela’s army to flip. The
carrot is an amnesty, approved by the national assembly, for military
and civilian personnel who act “in favour of the restitution of
democracy”.

The stick is American sanctions aimed at asphyxiating Mr Maduro’s
regime economically. The United States was almost the only cash payer
for Venezuelan oil. The administration has set April 28th as a
deadline for Americans to cease dealings with Venezuela’s state oil
monopoly. Until then, it will divert payments for oil to an account
reserved for a future democratic government. The sanctions are biting:
several dozen oil tankers are idling off Maracaibo, Venezuela’s oil
capital, reports the Wall Street Journal.

Venezuela has the makings of a broader international crisis. Subjected
to such sustained financial pressure, Mr Maduro could buckle any day.
But he might not. For now, the Venezuelan people’s plight recalls a
one-line short story by Augusto Monterroso, a Guatemalan writer: “When
he woke up, the dinosaur was still there.”

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Any escalation between #Israel and #Iran is a low-probability, high-risk event. @Stratfor
Law & Politics


On Feb. 1, the deputy head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC) again threatened Israel, saying Iran could destroy it in three
days. Despite these threats, Iran has exercised restraint when it
comes to confronting Israel militarily, even after dozens of strikes
on Iranian forces and equipment in Syria since 2013. These attacks
have been focused on degrading Iran's military capabilities in Syria
and interdicting its supply lines to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran's limited capabilities in Syria mean it has so far tempered any
escalation. Israel has a significant military advantage there,
enjoying overwhelming air superiority that it could use to kill
Iranian forces and severely damage their equipment. With the May 2018
counterstrike, Israel demonstrated the depth of its ability to
retaliate, showing Iran that responding would only invite an even more
forceful reply.

Moreover, Iranian forces in Syria are no longer the asset they once
were to Iran's allies, Syria and Russia, when the survival of the
government of President Bashar al Assad was in doubt. Now, Iran is at
risk of becoming more nuisance than asset due to the Israeli attention
Iranian forces attract. An Iranian escalation with Israel would only
worsen Iran's standing with Syria and Russia. An Iranian attack on
Israel could also break already fraying Iranian-European ties, which
Tehran is attempting to salvage.

This means any escalation between Israel and Iran is a
low-probability, high-risk event.

Conclusions


Russia to date is not proving Iran with meaningful cover in Syria

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When @JeffBezos alleged in a blog post Thursday that he was the victim of blackmail attempts by the publisher of the National Enquirer, he underscored risks particular to billionaires in the digital age @business
Law & Politics


“The perception among very affluent people is often ‘I have this level
of wealth, I’m untouchable,’" said Mark Johnson, chief executive
officer of Sovereign Intelligence, a McLean, Virgina-based risk
analytics firm. “But the systems they have in place for protecting
their personal identifiable information are very weak.”

Ask any family office about its biggest fears and cybersecurity is
near the top. Personal protection no longer involves just bodyguards
and a top-notch alarm system. The internet age has seen a massive
shift in people storing their most sensitive and personal data online,
where it’s vulnerable to hacking and intrusion.

Ultra-wealthy individuals are particularly susceptible because so much
of their data are often centralized through family offices, which
typically lack the robust firewalls and encryption capabilities of
banks and large corporations.

Johnson, a former case officer with the Naval Criminal Investigative
Service, said he’s worked with clients with more than $40 billion in
assets who had a “Secret Service-type physical security -- probably
even better -- and yet there was an absolute disconnect between that
physical security and the digital protection."

It’s unclear how the tabloid obtained Bezos’s texts. The Amazon.com
Inc. founder, who has a net worth of $133.9 billion, said in his blog
post that he’d authorized security chief Gavin de Becker “to proceed
with whatever budget he needed” to get to the bottom of the leak.

Red Five’s Coleman didn’t express shock that Bezos’s racy text
messages were vulnerable.

“My message to affluent families: don’t assume you’re OK,” Coleman
said. “Because most of them aren’t.”

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@realDonaldTrump Publisher Pal @NatEnquirer Puts Saudi Propaganda Magazine in US Supermarkets @thedailybeast
Law & Politics


In terms practically designed to appeal to Trump and his admirers, the
cover lines marvel at the 32-year old “next king” who’s “Controlling
Staggering $4 Trillion Business Empire” and building a “$640 Billion
Sci-Fi City of the Future.” Inside is an ode to his “luxurious
lifestyle,” reported $3 billion personal wealth and ownership of a
54,000-square foot palace near Versailles. MBS’ goal for his subjects
is described as “spreading happiness.”

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The Neighbourhood by Mario Vargas Llosa @FT
Law & Politics


Late in Mario Vargas Llosa’s 18th novel, he fills in the back-story of
its villain. “The Doctor” Vladimiro Montesinos, a now-jailed secret
policeman, spymaster, torturer, murderer, extortioner, arms-smuggler
and all-round “genius of evil”, is the all-too-real figure who wielded
terrifying power behind the throne during the authoritarian presidency
of Alberto Fujimori in Peru. In The Neighbourhood, one of Vargas
Llosa’s soap-operatic plots lays a winding trail of family scandals,
tabloid exposés, blackmail and subterfuge. Ultimately, it leads to the
secret beachside retreat of the president’s sinister fixer, that
“fawning, ostentatious braggart who wore yellow shoes with a blue
suit”.

Exposed. Rolando Garro, the malcontent who runs this gossip-spreading
“puddle of filth” with “a twisted kind of brilliance”, claims to have
photos of his victim in flagrante at an orgy.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.3195
Dollar Index 96.70
Japan Yen 109.97
Swiss Franc 1.0001
Pound 1.2929
Aussie 0.7095
India Rupee 71.245
South Korea Won 1125.35
Brazil Real 3.7294
Egypt Pound 17.614
South Africa Rand 13.6111

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Crude Oil Chart INO 52.03
Commodities


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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11-FEB-2019 :: Africa and The "Vision" Thing
Africa


"Reality is not always probable, or likely." - pronounced Jorge Luis Borges.

US AFRICOM commander GEN Waldhauser last week gave us a deep insight
into how the US sees the African Theatre much like FOCAC [Forum on
China-Africa Cooperation] affords us insights into how China looks at
the Continent, Interestingly the UN Chief Secretary General António
Guterres harked back to another Speech which was delivered to the
Parliament in Cape Town on February 3rd 1960 and by a British Prime
Minister Harold Macmillan who said;

''The wind of change is blowing through this continent. Whether we
like it or not, this growth of national consciousness is a political
fact''

The overarching Point remains that our and Africa's reality is key and
was something that Macmillan was referring to.

Returning to General Waldhauser and I am quoting excerpts from his
Speech before the Senate Committee on Armed Services

U.S. Africa Command, with partners, strengthens security forces,
counters transnational threats, and conducts crisis response in order
to advance U.S. national interests and promote security, stability,
and prosperity. Each day, we have approximately 7,000 personnel
conducting their assigned tasks on the African continent. According to
the Fund For Peace’s 2018 Fragility State Index, 33 of the 50
countries most at risk of becoming unstable are in Africa For scale,
Africa is over three times larger than the U.S. The U.S. Africa
Command Area of Responsibility encompasses 53 countries with a
population of 1.3 billion. By 2050, this figure is forecasted to
almost double to over 2.54 billion, with one out of every four people
on the planet living on the African continent.

Wayne Gretzky said ''A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A
great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be'' The
demographic ''Puck'' is headed to Africa. Whether it will be a
fabulous dividend or a Timebomb is still an open question, of course.

General Waldhauser added

U.S. Africa Command also plays a significant role in advancing the
priorities outlined in the National Security and Defense Strategies,
which emphasize the rise of China and Russia as key competitors. U.S.
Africa Command has also observed increased engagement of
non-traditional security actors, such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey,
and the United Arab Emirates, as both challenges and opportunities to
our mission.

Curiously India did not get a ''Shout-Out'' and nor did Europe where
France and Italy are at loggerheads. The US has a Hard Power advantage
with which it can tilt the Pitch. but that advantage is important but
one dimensional.

The Speech spoke of a switch away from ''terrorism'' notwithstanding a
Nod towards Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs) and their
destabilizing impacts on African partner states. and towards "Great
Power competition."  ''Our efforts to ensure strategic access must
also be viewed through the lens of competitor influence and coercive
activities. China is a strategic competitor and has most successfully
employed its model in Djibouti, holding 80 percent of the Government
of Djibouti’s debt, where access through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the
Red Sea, and the Suez Canal remains a U.S. strategic imperative''

The US is evidently concerned that China will eventually seek to deny
US access to African markets and Ports. The Report also cited Senegal
and Angola as being recipients of Chinese largesse. Waldhauser
mentions Russia which seems to be also making its move.

Today as we scan our Continent, There are plenty of fluid situations,
from Bashir's Khartoum to Mnangagwa's Zimbabwe and many points in
between.  Young People are connected to each other and to the World.
So far it is Prime Minister Abiy who appears to be sketching out a new
African political horizon and this brings me to the ''Vision'' thing.

Where is it? Who is providing it? Its high time we authored it because
this is a ''Born Free'' generation.

read more




Africa


Making People’s Republic dependent on Russia’s “regime reinforcement”
services in order to maintain & expand its presence in Africa, which
could in effect crown Moscow as kingmaker of African geopolitics in
the future

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Opposition leader Hakainde @HHichilema claims President Edgar Lungu tried to assassinate him @dailymaverick
Africa


Zambia’s police chief has vowed to investigate a violent political
rally where opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema says police sent by
President Edgar Lungu tried to assassinate him.
But it’s not clear if they will focus on alleged police excesses or
the “unruly crowd” of Hichilema supporters.
Hichilema says police fired live ammunition at the meeting which he
was addressing on Friday, to try to kill him.

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A Nigerian election pits an ex-general against a tycoon @TheEconomist
Africa


Muhammad Buhari has disappointed. His opponent could be worse

Nothing seems awry on arrival at the Ajaokuta Steel Company near
Lokoja in central Nigeria. Nestled in scrubland are rows of depots,
mills and furnaces; the complex covers 800 hectares, or four times the
size of Monaco. Inside the main building workers amble through the
foyer, barely noticing a suggestion box.

Your correspondent is, however, tempted to leave a note that reads:
“How about making some steel?” Since construction of the state-owned
firm began 40 years ago, it has received $8bn in public money without
producing a beam. Corruption and mismanagement have gone on for so
long that Ajaokuta has more than 10,000 pensioners on its books. There
is no more colossal symbol of Nigeria’s squandered potential.

Mr Buhari’s third set of promises concerned the economy. Alas,
Nigerians are poorer today than in 2015. Unemployment has risen from
8.2% to 23.1%. The president is partly the victim of low oil prices;
the black stuff provides 70% of government revenue. But his statist
instincts have made matters worse. Interest payments are set to reach
80% of federal government spending by 2022. Though Nigeria’s
government has three space agencies, it can barely run a power grid.
The country generates less electricity than the city of Edinburgh.

Atiku Abubakar, the main challenger to Mr Buhari, is also in his 70s.
His slogan is: “Let’s Get Nigerians Working Again”. Citing Margaret
Thatcher, he says he wants to privatise state-owned firms. But his
plans are short on detail. Many fear privatisation would be a
smokescreen for enriching his cronies. Though he has not been charged
with any crime in Nigeria, in 2010 a us Senate committee alleged that
Mr Abubakar’s (fourth) wife helped him bring “over $40m in suspect
funds” to America.

Mr Abubakar, a former big man in the Nigerian customs service, denies
that he is corrupt. His various businesses, from oil services to
property, make him the largest employer in his home state of Adamawa.
His vast fortune allows him to donate copiously to charity. He has a
deep patronage network across the country.

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On February 16th Nigerians will go to the polls in the largest democratic event in African history @TheEconomist
Africa


Fully 84m people are registered to vote in the country’s sixth general
election since military rule ended in 1999.

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RioZim Halts Output as Central Bank Fails to Make Payments @markets
Africa


RioZim Ltd. halted production at its three gold mines after Zimbabwe’s
central bank failed to provide foreign currency the company needs to
keep operating.
The shutdown is the second by RioZim since October. It’s the latest
indication of how businesses are struggling to keep going as a dearth
of foreign exchange causes shortages of food and fuel in the southern
African nation.
RioZim said it suspended output after the central bank reneged on a
commitment made in November to allow all gold producers to keep 55
percent of their export earnings in so-called nostro accounts and to
increase export incentives.
Mining is the biggest source of foreign exchange for Zimbabwe, which
has the world’s largest platinum reserves after South Africa and also
has deposits of chrome and iron ore. RioZim produced 2.1 tons of gold
in 2017, accounting for almost 10 percent of total output in Zimbabwe.

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21-JAN-2019 :: The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between high Inflation and revolutionary conditions
Africa


The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between
high Inflation and revolutionary conditions, Zimbabwe is a classic
example where there are $9.3 billion of Zollars in banks compared to
$200 million in reserves, official data showed. The Mind Game that
ZANU-PF played on its citizens has evapo- rated in a puff of smoke.
President Mnangagwa was cavorting around the World with his scarf [As
violence unfolded on the streets, Mnangagwa traveled to Russia. He’s
also scheduled to visit Kazakhstan, Belarus and Azerbaijan before
flying to the World Economic Forum in Davos] at the very moment that
his Citizens like Roberto Durán II in his fight with Sugar Ray Leonard
turned away from Leonard towards the referee and quit by apparently
saying, “No más” (Spanish for “No more”).

The Petrol price hike was the proximate cause and ‘’ignited the
already dry tinder on the ground’’ [Piers Pigou International Crisis
Group]

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08-OCT-2018 :: Government's "Voodoo Economics"
Africa


There are $9.3 billion of Zollars in banks compared to $200 million in
reserves, official data showed, a mis- match that creates a premium
for the U.S. dollar and fans the black market. On the black market,
the premium for the U.S. dollar spiked to a new record on Saturday,
reaching 165 percent from 120 percent on Monday, traders said that
means buying $100 in cash via a bank transfer cost $265, up from $220
earlier this week. The Government’s ‘’Voodoo Economics’’ where it
spent $1.3b pump-priming the economy ahead of the election [money it
did not have] was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

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Zanu-PF Briefing papers blame opposition parties & "rogue NGOs" for "an orgy of violence" accusing them of following a plan "by hostile elements to subvert state by rendering country ungovernable"
Africa


Zanu-PF  Briefing papers blame opposition parties & “rogue NGOs” for
“an orgy of violence” following a protest against fuel price rises
last month, accusing them of following a plan “by hostile elements to
subvert state by rendering country ungovernable”

In a report published earlier this week, a coalition of local NGOs
described a “de facto state of emergency” and a “reign of terror” by
the security forces, which they accused of being responsible for 1,800
human rights violations.

“Anti-government protests are an instrument of choice for subversive
elements, particularly the MDC, rogue NGOs, hostile [civil society
organisations] and Hostile Intelligence Services (sic), keen to effect
either regime change in Zimbabwe or force the consummation of a
[coalition government of national unity],”

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@edmnangagwa Treats Zimbabwe Opposition Like 'Cockroaches,' @BitiTendai Says @bpolitics
Africa


A leading Zimbabwean politician accused President Emmerson Mnangagwa
of treating opposition supporters like cockroaches that need to be
eliminated, evoking language used during the genocide of the Tutsi
minority in Rwanda in 1994.

Tendai Biti, a senior member of the opposition Movement for Democratic
Change, laid the blame for the most brutal suppression of urban
protests in Zimbabwe since independence from the U.K. in 1980 on
Mnangagwa. The former spy chief, known as The Crocodile, replaced
Robert Mugabe in late 2017 after a military coup.

Mnangagwa believes “we are cockroaches that must be crushed,” Biti,
52, said in an interview in Johannesburg on Friday, adding that only
Mnangagwa could have been responsible for the deployment of the
military. “Mugabe was a restraining force to these bulldogs and the
chief of these bulldogs is Emmerson Mnangagwa.”

“Everything that is happening has the ugly fingerprints of Emmerson
Mnangagwa,” Biti said.

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African online retailer #Jumia is planning an initial public offering in New York this year that could value the business at about $1.5 billion @business
Africa


Jumia’s largest shareholder MTN Group Ltd. is planning to raise as
much as $600 million from selling its shares through the IPO, said one
of the people, who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t
public.
A U.S. IPO would catapult Lagos, Nigeria-based Jumia into the global
spotlight after seven years of rapid growth across Africa, where it
provides an Amazon.com Inc.-like service and has platforms in 13
countries.
Jumia is a rare so-called unicorn in Africa -- a private company
valued at more than $1 billion -- being one of only three, according
to research firm CB Insights.
The company was set up by French entrepreneurs Sacha Poignonnec and
Jeremy Hodara in 2012 to take advantage of rising internet use in the
world’s least connected continent, as well as a lack of availability
of items such as designer watches and sunglasses in Lagos stores.
A successful listing of both Jumia and the Nigeria unit could help MTN
reduce debt, which increased to 69.8 billion rand in June from 57.1
billion rand at the end of 2017. The rising liabilities and a dispute
over non-payment of back taxes in Nigeria is weighing on the company’s
share price, which has fallen by almost a third in the last 12 months.
The stock traded 0.8 percent lower at 85 rand by the close in
Johannesburg on Friday, valuing the company at 160 billion rand ($11.8
billion).
Other Jumia shareholders include Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Millicom
International Cellular SA, Orange SA and Africa Internet Group, a
venture backed by Goldman, MTN and Rocket Internet SE.

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@The_EastAfrican >> Shadowy shell company: Unveiling Indo Power, mystery firm that bought $180m Tanzania cashewnuts
Africa


3#OlDonyoLengai means “Mountain of God” in the Masai language and
is still an active volcano. 🌋 #serianserengeti #tanzania @Seriancamp

https://twitter.com/Seriancamp/status/1092840914094080002

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@SafaricomPLC share price data here
Kenyan Economy


Closing Price:           26.85
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,075,756,741,800
EPS:             1.38
PE:                 19.457

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EABL share price data and HY Earnings release
Kenyan Economy


Closing Price: 214.00 Market Capitalization: $1.686b EPS:7.19 PE: 29.764

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"From the air, the Mara River looks stunning in the early morning." - 'The great Mara River' taken by Silvia Rodriguez Gonzalez @GreatestMara
Kenyan Economy


“From the air, the Mara River looks stunning in the early morning, the
animals begin to wake up and move among the flora and the perspective
of the meanders of the river is truly precious.” - ’The great Mara
River’ taken by Silvia Rodriguez Gonzalez

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@KenGenKenya share price data
Kenyan Economy


Market Capitalization: $427.74m EPS: 1.2 PE: 5.717 FY PBT 11.746b +2.487%

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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