20th April 2019
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 14th of February 2019
 
Morning
Africa

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31-DEC-2018 :: Europe remains off balance.
Africa


The Pound has not priced in a hard Brexit nor has the Euro.
Europe remains off balance. The French have always been prone to take
to the Streets but President Macron clearly has to deal with things
with plenty of finesse, now. President Putin is snapping at the edges
and his European Portfolio continues to grow.

Home Thoughts

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Gestures used by chimpanzees to communicate with each other follow some of the same rules intrinsic to human language, according to a study of wild chimps living in Uganda @newscientist
Africa


“Primate gestural communication is, of course, very different to human
language, but our results show that these two systems are underpinned
by the same mathematical principles,” says Heesen.

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Earth's earliest mobile organisms lived 2.1 billion years ago @ReutersAfrica
Africa


Scientists have discovered in 2.1-billion-year-old black shale from a
quarry in Gabon the earliest evidence of a revolutionary development
in the history of life on Earth, the ability of organisms to move from
one place to another on their own.

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Tubular structures found in black shale from a quarry in Gabon dating from 2.1 billion years ago - @ReutersAfrica
Africa


Tubular structures found in black shale from a quarry in Gabon dating
from 2.1 billion years ago - providing evidence of the earliest-known
mobile organisms on Earth - are shown in Poitiers, France in this
undated handout photo obtained February 11, 2019. Abderrazak
Albani/IC2MP/CNRS/Universite de Poitiers/Handout via
Life emerged in Earth’s seas as single-celled bacterial organisms
perhaps 4 billion years ago, but the earliest life forms lacked the
ability to move independently, called motility.

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@NicolasMaduro claims foes 'totally failed' to topple him as efforts falter @guardian
Law & Politics


Venezuela’s embattled leader, Nicolás Maduro, has claimed he has seen
off a dramatic opposition challenge to his rule, as those efforts
appeared to falter and the United States conceded it was “impossible
to predict” how long he might remain in power.
In an interview with Euronews, Maduro boasted that his political foes
had “failed totally” in their quest to topple him. Opponents “could
march every single day of their lives” and achieve nothing, Maduro
said.
Addressing a congressional hearing, the US special envoy on Venezuela,
Elliott Abrams, claimed “Maduro and his band of thieves” were
finished. He claimed international pressure meant “there is a storm
brewing inside the Maduro regime that will eventually bring it to an
end”.
But while Abrams said Washington was “hopeful and confident” of
Maduro’s demise he admitted it was “impossible to predict” when it
might come. The US would maintain pressure “over the next weeks and
months”, he added, suggesting a quick resolution is no longer
expected.

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04-FEB-2019 :: "The Edge... There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over," Hunter. S. Thompson.
Law & Politics


Lets start with Destination Caracas Venezuela. Here years of sanction
warfare [The Star Aug 2018 @realDonaldTrump seems to be relishing his
financial warfare strategies. Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela is being
attacked by remote-controlled drone] accompanied with rank
mismanagement has brought the country to that Hunter S. Thompson brink

 "The Edge... There is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over,"
Hunter. S. Thompson.

If one accepts that access to oil ''defined 20th-century empires and
the petrodollar agreement was the key to the ascendancy of the United
States as the world’s sole superpower'' America’s war machine runs on,
is funded by, and exists in protection of oil. Threats by any nation
to undermine the petrodollar system are viewed by Washington as
tantamount to a declaration of war against the United States of
America. The Chavez Revolution was always a rebellion in the
Superpower's back yard and the machine was eventually going to bring
it to heel by hook or by crook.

The Oriental Review's Andrew Korybko headlines his Article  ''A
Venezuelan Coup Could Challenge OPEC+ And Build “Fortress America” and
writes

Russia and China aren’t capable of directly defending Venezuela even
though they’ve voiced their support for international law, and their
real national interests rest with ensuring that Caracas repays its
billions of dollars of loans to them and respects the energy and
military deals that were previously signed despite not having any way
of guaranteeing that will happen if Maduro is overthrown. Therefore,
the most likely international outcome of his ouster would probably be
that the Washington-backed coup “authorities” would declare those
deals null and void, after which they’d likely open up the world’s
largest oil deposits in the Orinoco Belt to US companies. The
long-term repercussions are that the US could challenge Russia and
Saudi Arabia’s OPEC+ alliance and advance its “Fortress America”
geopolitical project in the Western Hemisphere

Maduro is I am afraid going down just like Muammar went down and as did Saddam.

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In a country with more than 2,000 generals and admirals, only one top officer -- who commands no troops -- has pledged allegiance to @jguaido @business
Law & Politics


“The Venezuelan armed forces are one of the most spied on institutions
in the world,” said Diego Moya-Ocampos, a political-risk consultant at
IHS Markit in London. “The high command benefits from a complex
patronage system under which they have preferential everything. In
practice, Maduro leads a military government.”
The Drug Enforcement Administration recently estimated that 15 to 20
tons of cocaine still move from Venezuela to the U.S. each month,
according to a person who works with the agency and asked not to be
identified. Much of the illicit traffic is controlled by Venezuelan
military officers and government officials, according to U.S.
officials, meaning their countrymen may suffer but many of them won’t.
A DEA spokeswoman declined to offer more specifics. Maduro has
dismissed the U.S. allegations as absurd.
Asking soldiers to fall in line behind a new president “may have been
an error,” said Alonso Medina, a human rights activist and lawyer. “We
have to remember that for 20 years the armed forces have been an
appendage of the ruling socialist party, and the opposition is only
now talking to them.”
Antonio Guevara, a retired colonel living in exile, also said nothing
has happened to generate a fracture in the armed forces. “The high
military command remains united, and cracks haven’t yet turned into
fractures that could generate destabilization,” he said. He added that
in previous uprisings the key to action lay in the hands of mid-level
commanders who oversee troops. So far there is no evidence that they
are budging.

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a panel discussion and film screening in honor of Paul Virilio's (1932-2018) life and the influence his work has had a rare screening of the short film "Itineraries of Catastrophe"
Law & Politics


The Brooklyn Rail is proud to host a panel discussion and film
screening in honor of Paul Virilio’s (1932-2018) life and the
influence his work has had on a generation of thinkers. The evening
will begin with a rare screening of the short film “Itineraries of
Catastrophe” – a conversation between Virilio and Sylvère Lotringer.
The panel, moderated by Paul D. Miller (aka DJ Spooky) and will
include McKenzie Wark, Thyrza Nichols Goodeve, and David Levi Strauss,
with introductions by Nichols Goodeve.

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Trump's wall is like an image from a Jorge Luis Borges story. Sometimes it must be built; sometimes it already exists. @davidfrum
Law & Politics


Trump's wall is like an image from a Jorge Luis Borges story.
Sometimes it must be built; sometimes it already exists. Sometimes it
is called a wall; sometimes it must not be so called. Sometime it is
free; sometimes it costs billions. It is always changing; yet always
the same.

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10-DEC-2018 :: Truce dinner @Huawei
Law & Politics


Sirloin steaks, Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] Huawei
Technologies Co. and Wanzhou Meng

You will recall that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping enjoyed a much
anticipated ''Truce'' Dinner at the G20 in Buenos Aires and quaffed a
Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] wine with their sirloin steaks and
finished it all off with caramel rolled pancakes, crispy chocolate and
fresh cream, a dinner that ran over by 60 minutes and one where the
dinner Guests broke out into spontaneous applause thereafter.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1276
Dollar Index 97.09
Japan Yen 110.045
Swiss Franc 1.0084
Pound 1.2866
Aussie 0.7120
India Rupee 70.845
South Korea Won 1124.88
Brazil Real 3.7543
Egypt Pound 17.5865
South Africa Rand 14.0418

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The continent's Eurobonds have returned 6.4 percent in 2019, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s indexes. The average gain for emerging markets is 4.4 percent. @business.
Africa


Africa is the place to be for emerging-market bond investors.
The continent’s dollar securities are outperforming those of all other
regions this year as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s dovish tilt entices
traders to buy up riskier, high-yielding assets.
African names dominate the list of best countries in the Eurobond
space. Kenya is out in front, its debt having returned 9.9 percent,
while Zambia is in second place. Oil producers including Nigeria,
Angola and Gabon also feature.

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31-DEC-2018 :: I like 30 year maturity
Africa


African Eurobond Paper Double Digit Yields will be difficult to resist
after sifting through credit risk. You might consider putting together
a Portfolio and leveraging it 50%. 30 Years is a long enough Off-Ramp

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Although the Somali-speaking peoples of the Horn of Africa all generally follow the belief that they descend from a single man named Soomal @Quillette @RAbdiCG
Africa


The northerners, called the Isaak, recently have managed, alongside
other clans, to establish a near-functioning democracy in the northern
Somaliland (which was once a protectorate of the British Crown). To
the south is the land of the Darod clans, where the civil war has been
raging since the 1990s.

These Darod clans, which are still largely nomadic, gradually have
been expanding southwestwards in search of new grazing lands to occupy
with their herds of camels, cattle, sheep and goats. Until the late
1890s, they were barely present in what came to be called Kenya’s
northern frontier, a vast arid savannah, woodland and desert that
stretched west to the Sudan and north to Ethiopia.

However, by the time the British established their authority over all
of the Kenya colony, and especially by the end of  WWII, the Darod
clans increased their numbers in the northeast of Kenya—in what is now
called Wajir, Mandera and Garissa districts. These areas now have  a
growing and sometimes dominant Somali presence. In 1964, the Somali of
northern Kenya fought a 10-year on-and-off guerrilla war against the
newly established Kenyan government, in hopes of linking their
territory with the newly independent state of Somalia. This strategy
did not work.

From the late 19th century onwards, the British bypassed the Swahili,
sending in missionaries from the coast to convert the Bantu and
Nilotic speaking tribes of the Kenyan interior, these being former
victims of the coastal slave trade. The modernizing elites of these
groups then fought with the British during WWI and WWII, and demanded
independence after the war, which they got. From an ethnographic point
of view, what this means is that the descendants of the non-Muslim
tribes that formerly provided the coastal Muslims with slaves were now
in charge of the government and economy of Kenya, making Muslims to
the northeast and on the coast a political minority within the region.

After 9/11, the southwest expansion of the Somali Darod into Kenyan
territory took on a new religious dimension. The young men who man Al
Shabab and the youngish “imams” who write their fatwas, the religious
rulings that encourage them to bomb “infidel hotels” in Nairobi and
other places, have broken away from their elders. Their violent
nihilism isn’t much different in character from that of rampaging
Congolese militias, except they perform their violence under cover of
Jihad. But whatever the pretext, the campaign can be classified, as
former Governor of Tanganyika and Zanzibar, Sir Richard Turnbull,
called it, the “Darod Invasion” of northeastern Kenya.

Conclusions

a very different perspective to any one I have read before.

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Indian Tea Sales to Wilt as Kenyan Crop Jumps @markets
Kenyan Economy


Tea exports from India, the world’s second-biggest producer, may
shrivel this year as a bumper crop in Kenya raises the risk of
oversupply.
Shipments could drop by 8 million to 10 million kilograms in the year
through March from a record of 256.57 million in 2017-18 as Kenya’s
output is likely to rise by as much as 60 million kilograms -- a large
volume for the world market to absorb, said Azam Monem, director at
Mcleod Russel India Ltd.
“Once Kenya produces that volume and their prices come down, it will
become very difficult for India to compete,” Monem said in an
interview on Monday. Kenya delivers good quality tea at a low price,
while India’s tea in that category is quite expensive in relative
terms, he added.
Weaker exports from India may hurt domestic producers, which have been
suffering from oversupply, and local tea prices will probably remain
stagnant or increase only marginally this year.
Tea output in India could drop 5 to 10 percent this year because of
poor weather in some of the major growing areas, Monem said.
Production climbed almost 6 percent from a year earlier to a record
1.33 billion kilograms in 2017-18, according to Tea Board India data.
India may export more than 30 million kilograms to Iran in 2019, from
about 28 million kilograms a year earlier, as demand for good quality
tea is on the rise, he said.
Mcleod Russel, which traces its origins back to a partnership formed
by two Englishmen in 1869 and now owns about 28,000 hectares of
plantations, expects its production in India to drop to 55 million
kilograms from 87 million kilograms in 2017-18 as it sold some gardens
this year.
The company is set to produce a further 30 million kilograms from
overseas plantations in places such as Vietnam, Rwanda and Uganda.

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British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd. reports FY 2018 EPS +22.452% FY Dividend +34.615%
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  10/-
Closing Price:           638.00
Total Shares Issued:          100000000.00
Market Capitalization:        63,800,000,000
EPS:               40.85
PE:                 15.618

British American Tobacco Kenya PLC FY 2018 Results through 31st
December 2018 vs. 31st December 2017
FY Gross revenue 36.496b vs. 34.468b +5.884%
FY Excise duty and VAT [15.746b] vs. [15.794b] -0.304%
FY Net revenue 20.750b vs. 18.674b +11.117%
FY Cost of operations [14.531b] vs. [13.313b] +9.149%
FY Profit from operations 6.219b vs. 5.361b +16.004%
FY Finance costs [338m] vs. [494m] -31.579%
FY PBT 5.881b vs. 4.867b +20.834%
FY Income tax expense [1.796b] vs. [1.531b] +17.309%
FY PAT 4.085b vs. 3.336b +22.452%
FY Dividend per share 35 vs. 26 +34.615%
FY Basic and diluted EPS 40.85 vs. 33.36 +22.452%
Shareholders’ funds 9.310b vs. 7.840b +18.750%
Net cash from operating activities 5.300b vs. 4.714b +12.431%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 190m vs. [1.652b] +111.501%

Company Commentary


Co. performed well in Kenya and across its export markets to deliver a
strong set of results.
The performance was dampened by the negative impact of illicit trade
in cigarettes in Kenya, incidence of which tose from 12.4% in December
2017 to 14.1% in December 2018

Conclusions


Big improvement from every angle.
Dividend is worth 5.485% which is a chunky slice.
Looks an attractive share in my opinion.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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