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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 15th of February 2019
 
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"Water is fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock, which is rigid and cannot yield"
Africa


“Water is fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock,
which is rigid and cannot yield. As a rule, whatever is fluid, soft,
and yielding will overcome whatever is rigid and hard. This is
anotherparadox: What is soft is strong,” Lao Tzu

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U.K. Set to Tell @EU_Commission It Doesn't Want to Renegotiate Brexit Deal @bpolitics
Law & Politics

British Prime Minister Theresa May’s officials are preparing to
compromise on their demands for a re-write of the Brexit agreement,
according to a person familiar with the matter.
The U.K. government is watering down its request for changes to the
contentious Irish border “backstop” arrangement as set out in the text
of the divorce deal that May struck with the European Union last year.
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay told the European Union’s chief
Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, during a private meeting Monday
that the government is not pursuing a reopening of the withdrawal
agreement. That’s likely to enrage the pro-Brexit members of May’s
Conservative Party who say the backstop is unacceptable.
While the stance could help the premier get concessions from Brussels,
it risks making the agreement more difficult to sell to members of
Parliament in London.
The EU has consistently rejected the possibility of renegotiating the
deal that was struck between the two sides in November, even though
U.K. lawmakers last month voted in favor of sending May back to try to
do so.
May told members of Parliament after their vote last month there
needed to be “significant” and “legally binding” changes to the
backstop and that this would necessitate the reopening of the
withdrawal agreement.
But after senior EU officials and leaders lined up to rebuff May,
Barclay told Barnier the U.K. didn’t need the deal to be reopened if
it could get the desired result through other means, according to the
person with knowledge of the meeting.
A second person with knowledge of the EU’s position said the bloc
could consider a separate document that could be an annex to the
withdrawal agreement that would expand on the backstop arrangement.
This could possibly include review clauses and a joint commitment to
explore technological alternatives.
Under the current agreement, the whole of the U.K. would stay in a
customs union with the EU until another solution is acceptable to both
sides. Pro-Brexit politicians fear the U.K. would be trapped in the
backstop indefinitely, preventing the country from forging its own
trade deals.
They want the backstop to be time-limited or have a unilateral exit
guarantee, both of which the EU has rejected. Steve Baker, one of the
pro-Brexit members of May’s party, told Parliament on Thursday that
there’s a majority in the House of Commons that wants the backstop
replaced.

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40 CRPF Men Killed In Worst Terror Attack On Forces In Kashmir, India Condemns Pakistan
Law & Politics


Nearly 40 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel were killed
and many others injured when terrorists targeted a convoy with a car
bomb at Awantipora in Jammu and Kashmir's Pulwama district today, in
what is the worst attack ever on security personnel in the state.
Reports suggested that the vehicle used by the terrorists was a
Mahindra Scorpio carrying more than 350 kg of explosives.
Home Ministry sources said that terrorists triggered the car bomb
while 78 vehicles with over 2,500 CRPF men were on the Srinagar-Jammu
highway.
The stretch on which the incident occurred had been sanitized earlier
in the morning, and authorities have termed it as a "serious breach"
of security.
Photographs showed charred remains of vehicles and human body parts
littered across the highway, alongside blue military buses.
Official sources said that the attack was carried out by one Adil
Ahmad Dar alias "Waqas Commando". A resident of Kakapora, he had
joined the terror outfit last year.

Conclusions

It was always going to blow - It was just a question of when

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U.K. Ministry of Defense has revealed plans for a new Royal Air Force squadron that will operate a fleet of unmanned aircraft able to fly networked together as a swarm @thedrive
Law & Politics


U.K. Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson briefly mentioned the swarm
project in a wide-ranging speech on the future of the country’s armed
forces at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank on
Feb. 11, 2019. The drones were among the many programs the Ministry of
Defense is paying for through a new, flexible “Transformation Fund,"
which has the intended goal of helping speed up the development of new
and advanced capabilities across the country's armed forces as a
whole.
“I have decided to use the Transformation Fund to develop swarm
squadrons of network enabled drones capable of confusing and
overwhelming enemy air defenses,” Williamson said in his remarks. “We
expect to see these ready to be deployed by the end of this year.”

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10-DEC-2018 :: Truce dinner @Huawei
Law & Politics


Sirloin steaks, Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] Huawei
Technologies Co. and Wanzhou Meng

You will recall that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping enjoyed a much
anticipated ''Truce'' Dinner at the G20 in Buenos Aires and quaffed a
Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] wine with their sirloin steaks and
finished it all off with caramel rolled pancakes, crispy chocolate and
fresh cream, a dinner that ran over by 60 minutes and one where the
dinner Guests broke out into spontaneous applause thereafter.

International Markets

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1290
Dollar Index 97.04
Japan Yen 110.42
Swiss Franc 1.0050
Pound 1.2817
Aussie 0.7093
India Rupee 71.2545
South Korea Won 1128.17
Brazil Real 3.7234
Egypt Pound 17.538
South Africa Rand 14.1526

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LATEST: JPMorgan has successfully tested a cryptocurrency "JPM Coin" it plans to use in trials for clients of its wholesale-payments business @crypto
World Currencies


The biggest U.S. bank said it developed a prototype digital coin that
it plans to use to speed up payments between corporate customers,
according to a statement Thursday.
The token, dubbed JPM Coin, is based on blockchain technology, a
decentralized public ledger of transactions that offers more speed
because it doesn’t rely on a central record keeper.
"Many of our clients move money in different ways and they’re looking
for a more real-time way to move value around," Umar Farooq, head of
digital treasury services and blockchain, said in an interview.
JPMorgan moves more than $5 trillion in wholesale payments each day,
so even a nascent experiment from the banking giant is poised to make
waves in the cryptocurrency world. While some experts questioned the
broader impact of a dollar-pegged coin available only to JPMorgan
clients, others said the bank’s involvement lends legitimacy to an
area that’s been rocked by volatility and scandal.
The coin has some differences from a traditional cryptocurrency,
according to the presentation. Cryptocurrencies use public,
open-access blockchain technology and their value is intrinsic to the
coin. A JPM Coin always has a value equivalent to one U.S. dollar and
uses JPMorgan’s private blockchain.
“JPMorgan is taking a significant step here,’’ said Adam Grimsley, a
former BlackRock Inc. fixed-income investor who co-founded
London-based crypto hedge fund Prime Factor Capital. “The first bullet
in any war is always the most important, and it looks like this could
be the first move in a broader adoption of blockchain and digital
currencies by large institutions.”

Commodities

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Property Prices Tumble in Dubai @WSJ
Emerging Markets


DUBAI—When the world’s tallest building opened here in 2010, a
one-bedroom apartment with a view of the Persian Gulf sold for about
$800,000. Four years later that apartment would fetch $1 million.
Today, the same apartment at the Burj Khalifa goes for less than
$550,000, according to brokers.
Dubai’s property prices have fallen by around 25% on average since
hitting a peak in 2015, according to global property firm Jones Lang
LaSalle .
It was one of the world’s worst-performing cities for real-estate
prices over the past two years, property consulting firm Knight Frank
said.
Other markets in the Persian Gulf region have also underperformed in
recent years for a variety of reasons.

The slump chips away at a key pillar of Dubai’s economy—real-estate
development—on which Dubai is highly dependent. Lower oil prices,
weaker currencies in nearby countries, given that the United Arab
Emirates’ currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar, and Middle East
political turmoil have all undercut property prices.
So has a glut of high-end housing, part of Dubai’s “Build and they
will come” approach to development. That strategy benefited Dubai’s
government-linked developers for the past two decades and during the
period of $100-a-barrel oil from 2011 to 2014, drawing wealthy expats
from Europe, India, Pakistan, and neighbors like Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait. But it has resulted in oversupply that could keep weighing on
prices for years. The city-state of more than three million people is
one of the world’s biggest construction sites. Nearly 1,200 cranes are
still active across the city. JLL estimates that close to 31,000 homes
will be completed this year, far exceeding demand.

“The only reason the market hasn’t bottomed out is simply that there
is so much new supply coming on the market,” said Craig Plumb, head of
research for Middle East and North Africa at JLL.

The government has eased its current residency policy by introducing
longer-term five- and 10-year residence visas for certain
professionals, compared with regular one- to three-year visas, which
could ultimately encourage its large expatriate workforce to stay and
invest more here. Dubai officials are also expanding their outreach to
potential investors in places like China and the U.S. and to pension
funds to generate interest in the local property market. In addition,
they have introduced economic-stimulus measures, such as reducing the
cost of doing business here.

Developers have also been trying to lure buyers with attractive
payment plans or guaranteed rental income for investors. That has
sparked concerns about firms that combine weak finances with
aggressive sales tactics.

Some say a shift from high-end, luxury properties to more midrange
housing offers Dubai’s mostly expat workforce incentives to stay
longer and would help address the supply imbalance. The shift toward
affordability in combination with an improving economy and longer-term
visas could revive the emirate’s property market.
While the downturn has dented activity at the luxury end, it hasn’t
halted it. An Austrian entrepreneur is developing a cluster of six
islands as part of the World development, which is slated to consist
of two luxury hotels and partly underwater apartments called The
Floating Seahorses.Last year, a golf-course villa changed hands for 90
million Emirati dirhams ($25 million) and a unit at the Bulgari Resort
and Residence, which comes with its own marina, sold for 60 million
dirhams, according Luxhabitat, a Dubai-based brokerage firm
specializing in high-end properties.

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@CyrilRamaphosa ends quoting Okri: h/t @RanjeniM
Africa


We dream of a new politics
That will renew the world
Under their weary suspicious gaze.
There’s always a new way,
A better way that’s not been tried before.

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BREAKING: @mtnug CEO Wim Vanhelleputte Deported
Africa


The government of Uganda has deported telecom giant, MTN Uganda’s
Chief Executive Officer.
According to a letter signed by the country’s Internal Affairs
Minister, Jeje Odongo, Wim Vanhelleputte has been deemed an
“undesirable immigrant.”
Police spokesperson, Fred Enanga confirmed the development saying,
issues of national security are a priority in Uganda.
This development comes on the heels of more deportations of top bosses
at the company.
Last month, the Uganda Police deported a French national and a Rwandan
employee of MTN, claiming they were a threat to national security.
Olivier Prentout from France and Annie Bilenge-Tabura from Rwanda had
been using their positions to “compromise national security”, police
spokeswoman Polly Namaye said in a statement.
“We strongly believe that the deportation of the two foreigners, who
were using their employment as tools to achieve their ill motives, has
enabled us (to) disrupt their intended plans of compromising our
national security,” she said.

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24-DEC-2018 :: Interestingly, You would have been in the top percentile of returns world wide had you bought Kenyan Shillings or Egyptian Pounds at the start of 2018
Africa


Interestingly, You would have been in the top percentile of returns
world wide had you bought Kenyan Shillings or Egyptian Pounds at the
start of 2018, invested the proceeds in 1 Year Treasury Bills [Egypt
or Kenya] and cashed it all in now

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"The significance of the Nigerian elections for Africa is tremendous," said Nic @Fromagehomme @business
Africa


While most Nigerian elections since military rule ended in 1999
concluded acrimoniously, the last contest four years ago saw the
first-ever transfer of power to the opposition via the ballot box and
was hailed as a watershed moment for the nation’s almost 200 million
people.

“The significance of the Nigerian elections for Africa is tremendous,”
said Nic Cheeseman, a professor of democracy and international
development at the University of Birmingham in the U.K. “A flawed
election and the political instability that this could generate would
not only undermine confidence in the feasibility of democracy in one
of Africa’s most important states, but also slow economic growth in
West Africa and the wider region.”
A study Cheeseman did of 44 African nations showed almost every
criterion used to evaluate the state of democracy slipped between 2015
and 2017. Many states pay lip service to staging elections, but have
made little headway in giving their citizens a real stake in their
economies, he said.
“They are aware that the rest of the world is busy with bigger
issues,” Mbeki said. “In Africa, things are most likely to get worse
before they get better.”
Half the 44 nations evaluated by Cheeseman, who analyzed the results
of a transformation index compiled by German research institute
Bertelsmann Stiftung, have autocratic governments. Mauritius and
Botswana were the only two classified as consolidating democracies,
while South Africa, which has an election in May, and Kenya were among
15 considered “defective democracies.” Nigeria was described as a
“highly defective democracy.”

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02-JUL-2018 :: On the same day he said, "we are in debt, we have to pay back but we can't. And secondarily, we aren't able to finish projects we have started" and announced his economic Pivot.
Africa


Of course, the downside risk of all this infrastructure is plain to
see and Sri Lanka and the tale of its Hambantota Port is now a
cautionary Tale. FX reserves were at less than a month’s worth of
imports and something needed to be done. Expectations are high.
The Prime Minister needs to execute real quick on the economic front
but if he levels the playing Field, a whole Troop of folks will be
looking to pile in.
That Troop will include the Ethiopian Diaspora, Foreign Investors and
I am sure our very own Safaricom who must have already presented the
Prime minister with a copy of the MIT research on M-Pesa which
confirmed access to mobile-money services increased daily per capita
consumption levels of two percent of Kenyan households, lifting them
out of extreme poverty.

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02-JUL-2018 :: Abiy Ahmed has moved at lightning speed, the old guard is like "the traditional feudal fortified city"
Africa


“Whoever controls the territory possesses it. Possession of territory
is not primarily about laws and contracts, but first and foremost a
matter of movement and circulation.”
Virilio argues that the traditional feudal fortified city disappeared
because of the increasing sophistication of weapons and possibilities
for warfare. For Virilio, the concept of siege warfare became rather a
war of movement.

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28-JAN-2019 :: The shilling has strengthened to 100.7 last. Every January every year every forecast about the shilling predicts a 10%-15% devaluation Its mind boggling.
Africa


The key levers with regard to the shilling are the price of fuel [We
have to write a cheque every month], inward Remittances [flew off the
chart last year and its not clear to me if that bump will turn out to
be ‘’amnesty’’ affected] and I think we underestimate the regional
‘’safe-haven’’ status that the Kenya Shilling has earned. A move below
a 100.00 would catch a lot of people off-guard.

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Momentum Shift in Kenya Spurs Stocks to Best Start Since 2013 @markets
Africa


There’s been a momentum shift in Kenya’s share market and it’s
propelled Nairobi stocks to their best start to the year since 2013.
After largely avoiding equities for the past two years in favor of the
fixed-income market, local money managers are back buying stocks and
in large-enough volumes to outweigh persistent foreign outflows.
The benchmark stock index has jumped 16 percent in response, the best
in the world in 2019 after Argentina and Egypt.
“The valuations were just too attractive following the correction by
the end of 2018,’’ said Judd Murigi, head of research at ICEA Lion
Asset Management, which oversees about $1.3 billion of assets in
Nairobi. The more “risk-on” environment, thanks to a slower
interest-rate increase path in the U.S. and optimism over the
resolution of trade disputes, has also helped to tempt buyers, he
said.
Foreign investors may still determine the trajectory for Kenyan stocks
in 2019, after net outflows of about $280 million last year and $116
million in 2017, according to figures from the capital markets
regulator. They sold a further $13 million in January, accounting for
more than 80 percent of turnover.
Even so, there are signs that the rally may be reaching its peak.
Since late January, the 14-day relative strength index for the
benchmark stock gauge has been above 70, a technical level that
indicates shares may have risen too far, too quickly and be poised to
retrace. The RSI is at its highest since November 2013.

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28-JAN-2019 :: This downshifting has seen the US interest curve shift significantly lower and this in turn has boosted Frontier and SSA Sovereign debt prices and lowered yields
Africa


Over the last few months, there has been a significant reduction in US
rate expectations. Expectations around growth have tilted lower. This
downshifting has seen the US interest curve shift significantly lower
and this in turn has boosted Frontier and SSA Sovereign debt prices
and lowered yields. For example, Kenya’s 30 Year Eurobond denominated
in Dollars was close to 10% and has rallied about 100 basis points off
those levels. Therefore, from a tactical perspective it was good to
see the Treasury move with despatch to seize the opportunity. We
learnt last week that Kenya is seeking proposals for issuance of
$2.5bn Eurobond - source ‘’They want to assess whether it would be
cheaper to borrow in euros or do- llars’’ the source told Reuters.
Kenya also announced that it had picked Standard Bank and TDB for $1
Billion of Syndicated Loans. Thats a $3.5b call right there. Now its
obvious we are fully loaded and this is a pheno- mena that’s not
unique to us. How we now deal with the balance sheet is key. However,
a $3.5b call now is tactically the right call, it kicks the can down
the road

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.@KenGenKenya to raise funds from the market this year, eyes green bond @ReutersAfrica
Africa


The Kenya Electricity Generating Company plans to raise funds from the
market later this year and it may opt to issue the country’s first
green bond, its chief executive said.
KenGen has a 1,631 megawatt annual capacity and it supplies 70 percent
of the East African nation’s electricity. Private investors hold 30
percent of the company while the rest is held by the state.
Rebecca Miano, KenGen’s CEO, said the company would go to the market
once it redeems its 10-year, 25 billion shillings ($250 million) bond
in October.
The bond was heavily oversubscribed when it was issued in 2009.
“Our finance people are burning the midnight oil to look at the
possibilities,” she told Reuters in an interview late on Wednesday,
without giving a figure for the target amount.
“The team is looking at asset backed securities, they are also looking
at green bonds.”
The so-called green bonds help to finance projects in the renewable
energy, energy-efficiency, green transport and wastewater treatment
sectors.
Kenya’s capital markets regulator is set to unveil regulations for
private issuance of green bonds next week, paving the way for the
first issue.
Although Kenya has high consumer electricity tariffs compared with
countries like Egypt and South Africa, the government’s policies had
boosted investment in the sector, Miano said, helping it to avoid
blackouts or schedule cuts.
“Kenya was among the first countries in Africa to liberalise
generation and it has its own advantages. You have many players and it
brings competition... you have adequate power,” she said.
KenGen has shifted its strategy in recent years to focus on renewable
energy in order to reduce the risk posed by its hydro generation dams,
which are normally susceptible to a drop in production when the rains
fail.
Geothermal steam, hot underground steam found in the Rift Valley which
is used to drive turbines for electricity production, accounts for
nearly a third of the firm’s annual production, Miano said.
“Our geothermal-led strategy is bearing fruit,” she said, adding the
company was developing capacity for an extra 720 MW in the next four
years to 2022.
The new plants being developed are mainly in geothermal with one
plant, with a capacity for 80 MW, being in wind.
KenGen paid a dividend to shareholders for its year ended last June,
breaking a two-year dividend drought associated with the costs of
building the new geothermal plants and installing additional capacity
in existing plants.
Miano said shareholders might secure additional dividends in the future.
“The outlook is positive because we have projects that we are
implementing that will increase our business and we do hope that the
board will continue (recommending a dividend),” she said.

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@KenGenKenya share price data here
Africa


Market Cap: $420.206m EPS:1.2 PE: 5.617
FY Revenue 45.290b vs. 43.432b +4.278%
FY Steam costs [3.549b] vs. [2.796b] +26.931%
FY Operating profit 11.442b vs. 13.545b -15.526%
FY PAT 7.891b vs. 9.006b -12.381%
Basic and diluted EPS 1.20 vs. 1.37 -12.409%
Dividend per share 0.40 vs.

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BAT share price data and FY2018 Earnings here
Africa


Par Value:                  10/-
Closing Price:           638.00
Total Shares Issued:          100000000.00
Market Capitalization:        63,800,000,000
EPS:             40.85
PE:                 15.618

British American Tobacco Kenya PLC FY 2018 Results through 31st
December 2018 vs. 31st December 2017
FY Gross revenue 36.496b vs. 34.468b +5.884%
FY Excise duty and VAT [15.746b] vs. [15.794b] -0.304%
FY Net revenue 20.750b vs. 18.674b +11.117%
FY Cost of operations [14.531b] vs. [13.313b] +9.149%
FY Profit from operations 6.219b vs. 5.361b +16.004%
FY Finance costs [338m] vs. [494m] -31.579%
FY PBT 5.881b vs. 4.867b +20.834%
FY Income tax expense [1.796b] vs. [1.531b] +17.309%
FY PAT 4.085b vs. 3.336b +22.452%
FY Dividend per share 35 vs. 26 +34.615%
FY Basic and diluted EPS 40.85 vs. 33.36 +22.452%
Shareholders funds 9.310b vs. 7.840b +18.750%
Net cash from operating activities 5.300b vs. 4.714b +12.431%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 190m vs. [1.652b] +111.501%

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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