21st February 2019
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 20th of February 2019
 
Morning
Africa

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@wto trade indicator points to slower trade growth into first quarter of 2019 H/T @WTODGAZEVEDO
Africa


The most recent WTO reading of 96.3 is the weakest since March 2010
and below the baseline value of 100 for the index, signalling
below-trend trade expansion into the first quarter. Weakness in the
overall index was driven by steep declines in the component indices,
which appear to be under pressure from heightened trade tensions.
Indices for export orders (95.3), international air freight (96.8),
automobile production and sales (92.5), electronic components (88.7)
and agricultural raw materials (94.3) have shown the strongest
deviations from trend, approaching or surpassing previous lows since
the financial crisis. Only the index for container port throughput
remained relatively buoyant at 100.3, showing on-trend growth.

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According to the latest data, there are probably fewer than 400,000 savannah elephants left in the wild across Africa @TC_Africa
Africa


Vulcan is known in the conservation world for sponsoring the Great
Elephant Census. The census revealed that there are probably fewer
than 400 000 savannah elephants left in the wild across Africa. It
also revealed a decline of 8% a year between 2007 and 2014, largely
due to poaching, either to supply the illegal ivory trade or the
bushmeat trade.

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Tolkien wrote a poem for Lewis (they both loved poetry), entitled "Philomythus to Misomythus" ("Lover of Myth to Hater of Myth") @orientalreview
Africa


He sees no stars who does not see them first
of living silver made that sudden burst
to flame like flowers beneath the ancient song,
whose very echo after-music long
has since pursued. There is no firmament,
only a void, unless a jewelled tent
myth-woven and elf-patterned; and no earth,
unless the mother’s womb whence all have birth.

Lewis had said: “Myths are lies, even though breathed through silver.”
Tolkien once said, “If God is mythopoetic, we must become mythopathic.”

VIDEO: 🇿🇦 A tiny beach restaurant in the isolated fishing village of
Paternoster in South Africa's Western Cape has been crowned the
world's best at the inaugural World Restaurant Awards in Paris @AFP

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1097869665471217665

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A truly remarkable thing for a fmr. Acting FBI Director to say: "We had information that led us to believe that there might be a threat to national security, in this case, that the president himself might, in fact, be a threat"
Law & Politics


A truly remarkable thing for a fmr. Acting FBI Director to say: "We
had information that led us to believe that there might be a threat to
national security, in this case, that the president himself might, in
fact, be a threat to United States' national security." (McCabe on
NBC)

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Intimidation, Pressure and Humiliation: Inside @realDonaldTrump's Two-Year War on the Investigations Encircling Him @nytimes
Law & Politics


WASHINGTON — As federal prosecutors in Manhattan gathered evidence
late last year about President Trump’s role in silencing women with
hush payments during the 2016 campaign, Mr. Trump called Matthew G.
Whitaker, his newly installed attorney general, with a question. He
asked whether Geoffrey S. Berman, the United States attorney for the
Southern District of New York and a Trump ally, could be put in charge
of the widening investigation, according to several American officials
with direct knowledge of the call.

Mr. Whitaker, who had privately told associates that part of his role
at the Justice Department was to “jump on a grenade” for the
president, knew he could not put Mr. Berman in charge because Mr.
Berman had already recused himself from the investigation. The
president soon soured on Mr. Whitaker, as he often does with his
aides, and complained about his inability to pull levers at the
Justice Department that could make the president’s many legal problems
go away.

Mr. Trump rages almost daily to his 58 million Twitter followers that
Mr. Mueller is on a “witch hunt” and has adopted the language of Mafia
bosses by calling those who cooperate with the special counsel “rats.”
His lawyer talks openly about a strategy to smear and discredit the
special counsel investigation. The president’s allies in Congress and
the conservative news media warn of an insidious plot inside the
Justice Department and the F.B.I. to subvert a democratically elected
president.

Conclusions

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In 1981, four Labour members broke away to form the Social Democratic Party Bloomberg Opinion
Law & Politics


That ended in failure and helped the Conservative Party to stay in
government. The same could happen this time

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1338
Dollar Index 96.56
Japan Yen 110.836
Swiss Franc 1.0016
Pound 1.3054
Aussie 0.7160
India Rupee 71.2205
South Korea Won 1122.45
Brazil Real 3.7240
Egypt Pound 17.542
South Africa Rand 14.0470

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Sterling shoots above $1.30 on Brexit hopes in jittery session @Reuters
World Currencies


After edging higher for much of the day, the pound then jumped in late
European trading - rising almost one percent versus the dollar by 1615
GMT to hit its strongest since Feb. 5, at $1.3050. The pound was
headed for its biggest one-day gain since January.
Against the euro, the British currency added 0.7 percent to 86.93
pence per euro.
“I’m fairly certain it’s not news-related and it’s due to technical
factors,” said Neil Mellor, currencies analyst at BNY Mellon,
referring to some large buy orders reportedly in the market and
triggered when sterling hit $1.30.
“The most recent data on the UK labour market continues to be strong
on the whole,” said David Cheetham, market analyst at online broker
XTB.

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18-FEB-2019 :: #NigeriaDecides2019
Africa


Last week President Cyril Ramaphosa closed a speech quoting Ben Okri

We dream of a new politics
That will renew the world
Under their weary suspicious gaze.
There’s always a new way,
A better way that’s not been tried before.

This week Nigerians [84m people are registered to vote] were intending
to go to the Polls in the country’s sixth general election since
military rule ended in 1999. In fact, The Nigerian vote is ''the
largest democratic event in African history'' [@TheEconomist]  The
Elections were postponed at at 2.40am on election day. The Nigerian
electoral commission pronounced that the general elections were
postponed by a week. Charlie Robertson tweeted

''#Nigeriadecides but not yet. Postponement is typical.  2011
elections were pushed back twice, the 2nd time when the parliamentary
vote had already begun … In 2015 they were delayed by 6 weeks (roughly
a week ahead of time)''

Like Ben Okri's preferred literary genre of  ''magic realism''
Nigerian Politics has spun some surreal narratives of its own. Who can
forget the legendary Pleasure-Seeker General Sani Abacha, President
Umaru Yar'Adua who allegedly  was kept alive [or not] for a number of
days in an ambulance in the State House grounds. Even the austere
President Buhari went missing for a few months.

''The significance of the Nigerian elections for Africa is
tremendous,” said Professor Nic Cheeseman [Bloomberg]

"We are tired of these same old leaders, We are laying the foundation
for a revolution in 2023." Until then, Nigeria will be stuck with
mediocrity pronounced the Economist.

Change is inevitable but not just yet.

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Zimbabwe Central Bank Is Said to Consider Devaluing Bond Notes @economics
Africa


Bond notes currently trade at 3.61 per dollar on black market
Zimbabwe’s central bank is considering devaluing its quasi-currency as
part of a raft of reforms to the nation’s foreign-exchange system,
according to a central bank official.
Depreciating the so-called bond notes would be an acknowledgment that
the official one-for-one exchange rate is no longer sustainable.
It would also mark the second major overhaul to Zimbabwe’s currency
regime since October, when the central bank ordered lenders to
separate deposits of U.S. dollars and electronic money known as RTGS$.
Since then the cash shortage has led to the closing of factories, the
more than doubling of fuel prices to the highest in the world and a
surge in inflation. Protests in January left at least 17 people dead.
Bond notes currently trade at 3.61 per dollar on the black market,
according to marketwatch.co.zw, a website run by financial analysts.
RTGS$ are valued at about 3.75 per dollar, it said.

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21-JAN-2019 :: The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between high Inflation and revolutionary conditions, Zimbabwe is a classic example
Africa


The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between
high Inflation and revolutionary conditions, Zimbabwe is a classic
example where there are $9.3 billion of Zollars in banks compared to
$200 million in reserves, official data showed.

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07-JAN-2019 :: Joseph Kabila Kabange sporting a new sartorial look was giving "exclusive" interviews to the world's press. In one interview he alluded to Arnold Schwarzenegger's famous quote "I'll be back."
Africa


Joseph Kabila Kabange who besides sporting a new sartorial look of
late has been President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo since
January 2001 and took office after the assassination of his father,
President Laurent-Désiré Kabila. Previously very cryptic and not prone
to engaging with the press, President Kabila having anointed his
preferred successor Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was giving ‘’ex-
clusive’’ interviews to the world’s press. In one interview he alluded
to Arnold Schwarzenegger’s famous quote ‘’I’ll be back.’’

read more




"Baba Go Slow" has to be contrasted with President Al-Sisi's Egypt. Al-Sisi made bold moves when it came to the Economy. Egypt devalued its currency early but is now reaping the dividend from its bolder economic policy
Africa


''Baba Go Slow'' has to be contrasted with President Al-Sisi's Egypt.
Al-Sisi [and I for one disagree with him on many things particularly
with his ''incarceration'' strategy] made bold moves when it came to
the Economy. Egypt devalued its currency early, took a brutal punch in
the solar plexus but is now reaping the dividend from its bolder
economic policy

read more






"I am convinced he is not fit to run for president", Mr Murathe told the @FinancialTimes repeatedly in an interview at his private residence in Nairobi.
Kenyan Economy


He added that Mr Ruto had focused on strengthening his own political
and financial position and failed to support the president’s agenda.
“If he can behave like this when he is number two, how will he behave
when he is number one, because then he would have the absolute power
to ride roughshod over everybody,” said Mr Murathe.
Mr Murathe insisted that his opinions were his own but many observers
say he is acting as a proxy for his friend Mr Kenyatta. He stepped
down from his position in the ruling party in January, saying he could
no longer work with Mr Ruto in good faith.
“The importance of Murathe is that nobody thinks he is speaking for
himself,” said Murithi Mutiga, a Kenya expert at the International
Crisis Group. “In the minds of the public he is seen as speaking for a
powerful camp within Jubilee that is mobilising against Ruto.”
Mr Ruto dismissed Mr Murathe’s accusations while in London this month.
“I haven’t responded to David Murathe in Kenya and I won’t respond to
him in Europe, he doesn’t merit my response,” said Mr Ruto following a
speech in the Royal Institute of International Affairs at Chatham
House. Mr Kenyatta’s successor would be selected by the party and not
by any individual, said Mr Ruto.
Mr Mutiga. “You will have less focus on the government’s very
ambitious programme and more on jockeying for position ahead of a very
high stakes transition.”
“The Rift Valley is the beating heart of the country, strategically
and economically, and the hostilities were never settled,” said Mr
Mutiga. “The [Jubilee] coalition papered over the cracks.”

read more


28-JAN-2019 :: Africa Confidential are characterising it as "Three's a crowd"
Kenyan Economy


‘’Stroke of a Pen Upsets Kenyan Deputy’s Presidential Ambitions’’
History teaches us that incum- bency has all the advantages and the
likes of the Africa Confidential are characterising it as ‘’Three’s a
crowd’’ Its a fluid political situation and a number of chess-pieces
are being moved.

read more


.@SafaricomPLC share price data
Kenyan Economy


Closing Price: 26.15 Market Cap: $10.456b EPS 1.38 PE: 18.949

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"It's a bit short-sighted, because if you look at Kenya, the banks that really work are ones that work with M-Pesa" @BBCWorld
Kenyan Economy


"We don't really see ourselves in competition with banks, we see
ourselves in competition with cash."@SafaricomPLC @bobcollymore

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Knight Frank on RE: Prime residential prices decreased by 4.5% in 2018, vs. to 0.9% in 2017. @surambaya
Kenyan Economy


Attributed to an oversupply in the market, tighter liquidity due to
the new banking legislation... and a general market price
correction...

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Longhorn Kenya Ltd reports H1 2018 PBT +73.128%
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           5.18
Total Shares Issued:          369940476.00
Market Capitalization:        1,916,291,666
EPS:             0.67
PE:                 7.731

A leading Publishing firm in East Africa.

Longhorn Publishers PLC H1 2019 results through 31st December 2018 vs.
31st December 2017
H1 Sales 697.565m vs. 513.460m +35.856%
H1 Cost of sales [271.041m] vs. [191.059m] +41.862%
H1 Gross profit 426.524m vs. 322.401m +32.296%
H1 Operating Expenses [336.339m] vs. [270.310m] +24.427%
H1 PBT 90.185m vs. 52.091m +73.128%
H1 Net profit 68.831m vs. 36.463m +88.769%
H1 Total assets 2.192785b vs. 1.734288b +26.437%
H1 Cash & cash equivalents at the end of the period 92.627m vs.
[15.661m] +691.450%

Company Commentary

Turnover increased by 36% - attributed to the growth of volumes in
Kenya and the regional markets
sale of publishing rights in the regional markets which generated
higher margins as compared to normal Book Sales
successfully completed distribution of close to 500,000 copies of text
books to public secondary schools across the country
digital transformation strategy with has led to the repurposing of
content in mobile platforms audio and video forms
continued growth in Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Malawi and Zambia

Conclusions


An interesting and inexpensive Prospect

read more





 
 
N.S.E Today


The International Markets remain on tenterhooks around the US China Tariff War.
Trump has become quite accomplished at Gaming the markets especially
on a Friday around the prospects of a Deal.
Sterling regained 1.3000 yesterday and is holding notwithstanding the
fact that 3 Conservative MPs have bailed on Prime Minister Theresa
May.
Even Bitcoin is staging a Snap-Back trading at $3,924.00 last.
Commodity Markets have lifted Gold to a more than 6 month high of $1,343.81.00
Soybeans [which are a Proxy for the Tariff War] ave not got the Memo.
Africa awaits the Nigerian Elections and the South African Budget read
by Tito Mboweni.
SouthAfrica's rand weakened heavily as Finance Minister #Mboweni
announces a $4.9bn bailout for #Eskom -- the biggest in the nation's
history -- and the largest budget deficit for a decade [Paul Wallace]
Egypt's issued a $4bn #Eurobond  There were almost $20bn of orders for
the deal. The government will pay 6.2% for a $750m 5-year tranche;
7.6% for a $1.75bn 10-yr portion; and 8.7% for $1.5bn of 30-yr debt.
@markets
''Baba Go Slow'' has to be contrasted with President Al-Sisi's Egypt.
Al-Sisi [and I for one disagree with him on many things particularly
with his ''incarceration'' strategy] made bold moves when it came to
the Economy. Egypt devalued its currency early, took a brutal punch in
the solar plexus but is now reaping the dividend from its bolder
economic policy
The Nairobi All Share produced its best start to the Year [since 2013]
through 6th Feb rallying +14.12% before becoming overbought and has
been in a corrective phase since then.
The Nairobi All Share corrected -0.66 points to close at 155.54 and is
-2.94% below its 2019 closing high from February 6th.
The NSE20 closed -11.52 points at 3011.41.
Equity Turnover was 458.721m.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom PLC's #Fuliza overdraft service, has lent $70 million &
recruited 5 million subscribers in 6 weeks, a very impressed senior
banking source in Nairobi tells me. @cobbo3 Safaricom closed unchanged
at 26.15 and traded 2.628m shares worth 68.82m. Safaricom is +17.79%
in 2019.

Longhorn Kenya reported H1 Earnings where H1 Sales accelerated
+35.856% to clock 687.565m, lifting 1 Profit before Tax +73.128% to
90.185m. H1 Cash & cash equivalents surged +691.45% to 92.627m [which
is always a good signal]. Longhorn struck an optimistic note in the
accompanying commentary:

1. Turnover increased by 36% - attributed to the growth of volumes in
Kenya and the regional markets
2. successfully completed distribution of close to 500,000 copies of
text books to public secondary schools across the country
3. Digital transformation strategy with has led to the repurposing of
content in mobile platforms audio and video forms
4. continued growth in Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Malawi and Zambia

The Education Business is blowing red-hot and Longhorn is an
interesting prospect. LongHorn rallied +5.27% to close at 5.39 and was
trading at 5.50 +7.42% at the Finish Line.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Bank eased -0.47% to close at 42.00 and traded 2.071m shares.
Equity is +20.516% in 2019.
KCB Group corrected -2.22% to close at 41.70 and traded 1.123m shares.
KCB is +11.348% in 2019.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL eased -2.86% to close at 195.00 and traded 1.011m shares worth
197.311m. EABL is +11.58% in 2019 and released muscled up H1 Earnings
at the end of January.

KenGen's CEO Rebecca Miano has signalled that KenGen is likely to
avail itself of the opportunity to issue a ''Green'' Bond when its 10
Year ''Infrastructure'' Bond matures in October. KenGen rallied +2.96%
to close at 6.59 and traded 147,200 shares. There were Buyers for 10x
volume traded.

--



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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