20th April 2019
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 28th of February 2019
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

http://www.rich.co.ke

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09-JUL-2018 :: Tariff wars, who blinks first?
Africa


🇺🇸 🇨🇳*LIGHTHIZER SAYS MORE #CHINA PURCHASES ALONE NOT ENOUGH
FOR DEAL - BBG @C_Barraud

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1100775394620461057

*LIGHTHIZER: CONGRESS'S SUPPORT HAS BEEN KEY IN CHINA TALKS
*LIGHTHIZER: IT’S TOO EARLY TO PREDICT OUTCOME OF CHINA TALKS
*LIGHTHIZER SAYS ANY CHINA AGREEMENT MUST BE ENFORCEABLE

read more



15-OCT-2018 :: War is coming @TheStarKenya
Africa


The incident with the USS Decatur where a Chinese warship came within
45 yards of the USS Decatur in South China Sea is surely a precursor.

read more








Poachers and politicians take aim at Africa's largest elephant population in Botswana @thetimes
Africa


The number of fresh carcasses among Botswana’s elephant population has
gone up by 600 per cent in four years, according to a wildlife census,
a rise largely due to poaching.
The country’s new president is considering reintroducing trophy
hunting along with regular culling of elephants, with the meat being
canned for pet food.
While Botswana is home to approximately 30 per cent of Africa’s
elephants, more than any other country, the four-month survey by
Elephants Without Borders (EWB) found that since 2010 the overall
population has stabilised or even dwindled.
Mike Chase, director of EWB, used an aerial survey to conclude that
the poaching outbreak was the largest recorded in the southern African
state since the 1970s, with 104 fresh or recent carcasses,
representing a 593 per cent increase since 2014 when almost none were
found.
Iain Douglas-Hamilton, a British conservationist, said that the trend
seen in the poaching data “raises the possibility that further
escalations are possible”.
Mr Douglas-Hamilton, who was among the first to alert the world to
industrial-scale ivory poaching in east Africa and who has endorsed
the survey’s findings, said:
“From a number of studies elsewhere in Africa, an initial increase in
elephant poaching similar to that now seen in Botswana has often been
a precursor to major [population] reductions subsequently.”
Botswana has rejected EWB’s conclusions. The government wants the raw
data to be reanalysed by an independent body. President Masisi, who
came to power last March, has described reports of a rise in poaching
as “blue lies” perpetuated by “certain people with ulterior motives to
tarnish the good name of Botswana”.
Mr Masisi, 57, has moved to reverse a number of wildlife policies
implemented by his predecessor, Ian Khama, who armed rangers with
automatic weapons and operated an unofficial shoot-to-kill policy
against poachers. Conservationists fear that the country’s animals
have become embroiled in a power struggle within the ruling Botswana
Democratic Party.
According to the EWB report, gangs using consistent methods have been
operating in four hot spots in the north, including within the
Okavango Delta, a Unesco world heritage site. Older bulls aged 35 to
55 carrying the heaviest ivory were targeted at remote watering holes
by poachers armed with high-calibre rifles. Any survivors were
immobilised by axe blows to their spinal cords, enabling the poachers
to hack off their tusks and often their trunks. Carcasses were
concealed by tree branches, the pictures show, so they could not be
spotted easily from the air.
The EWB count covered 40,000 square miles, about a sixth of the
country, which is roughly the size of France. It estimates Botswana’s
elephant population to be 126,114, although some politicians claim it
is double that number and presents a danger to lives and livelihoods
of the rural population, an important cohort that will vote in
national elections this year.
A parliamentary committee reviewing Mr Khama’s 2014 moratorium on
trophy hunting claimed that hunting would boost tourism while
“managing” the elephant population. It called for “regular but
limited” elephant culling.
Along with South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe, Botswana has applied to
the wildlife trade body Cites to be allowed to trade its ivory.
Mr Douglas-Hamilton fears that such a move would weaken the ivory
trade ban imposed by China and elsewhere. “When you have legal ivory
trade it is mirrored by a huge illegal trade,” he said.

read more



BREAKING: According to @CNNnews18, Indian PM Modi has reportedly given the Indian military a "free hand" regarding the situation with Pakistan, following a high-level security meeting. @Conflicts
Law & Politics


BREAKING: According to @CNNnews18, Indian PM Modi has reportedly given
the Indian military a "free hand" regarding the time, place and how
they want to move forward regarding the situation with Pakistan,
following a high-level security meeting.

read more




"This is unprecedented territory -- we haven't had tit-for-tat air strikes between India and Pakistan since the 1971 war," said Anit Mukherjee, @business
Law & Politics


"We don’t know what will come from this. But it seems like Pakistan
has given a response. And there have been casualties -- captures,
deaths."
"They will not allow things to go out of control because both
countries are facing tremendous pressure from global powers including
China and the U.S.," said Rashid Ahmed Khan,
"There will be a controlled and managed escalation."

read more











30-APR-2018 :: what security guarantees can Trump provide to Kim? Offering up bullet-proof security guarantees is the equivalent of threading the needle #TrumpKimSummit
Law & Politics


The Question remains as follows. Kim Jong-Un can hardly forget what
happened to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi #TrumpKimSummit
Offering up bullet-proof security guarantees is the equivalent of
threading the needle.

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18 SEP 17 :: "A screaming comes across the sky" North Korea. @TheStarKenya #TrumpKimSummit
Law & Politics


Gravity’s Rainbow is a 1973 novel by Thomas Pynchon which is about the
design, production and dispatch of V-2 rockets by the German military.
In particular, it features the quest undertaken by several characters
to uncover the secret of a mysterious device named the “Schwarzgerät”
(black device), slated to be installed in a rocket with the serial
number “00000”. As the world watches PyongYang, I cannot help
wondering if Kim Jong-Un has read Pynchon which speaks of “A screaming
comes across the sky” and North Korea.

“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the
parabola.  They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused
to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving
toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no
surprise, no second chance, no return.’’

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07-AUG-2017 :: Any financial expert will tell you that President Trump's financial affairs are a "smoking gun."
Law & Politics


Any financial expert will tell you that President Trump’s financial
affairs are a ‘’smoking gun.’’ Deutsche Bank loans were surely
‘’mirror’’ transactions, where Deutsche Bank was a commission agent
interposed between Trump and the real lender. All those sales where
Trump proclaimed himself a ‘’genius’’ because they were so off-market,
we would all be incredulous, were essentially just that
‘’incredible’’. There is a prima facie case here and its in plain
sight. President Trump knows it and that’s why he has been demanding
Al Pacino [a la Martin Scorsese’s godfather] style demands of loyalty
from the likes of the now dispensed with FBI director James Comey.

read more



From feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line ("a constant state of destabilised perception")
Law & Politics


From feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant
state of destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of
Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out
and motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable
and noteworthy.

read more








The whole Trump saga is like the Godfather but if all of the characters were Fredo @danpfeiffer
Law & Politics


Pretty intimate dinner setup. Trump joined by Pompeo and chief of
staff Mulvaney. Kim with his military spy chief and foreign affairs
minister. Plus translators. 📷 Saul Loeb / AFP @benrileysmith

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1100739606796849153

read more


Trump and Kim dined on shrimp cocktail, grilled sirloin with pear kimchi, and chocolate lava cake @politico
Law & Politics


Shrimp Cocktail
Chilled shrimp, romaine leaves, thousand island dressing, diced
avocado, fresh lemon and herbs
Grilled Sirloin with Pear Kimchi
Marinated tender sirloin grilled with sauce, served with kimchi
fermented inside a pear
Chocolate Lava
Hot runny centered chocolate cake, chocolate crumble, with fresh
berries and vanilla ice cream
Dried Persimmon Punch
Traditional beverage sweetened with dried persimmon and honey

read more


10-DEC-2018 :: Truce dinner @Huawei
Law & Politics


Sirloin steaks, Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] Huawei
Technologies Co. and Wanzhou Meng
You will recall that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping enjoyed a much
anticipated ''Truce'' Dinner at the G20 in Buenos Aires and quaffed a
Catena Zapata Nicolas Malbec [2014] wine with their sirloin steaks and
finished it all off with caramel rolled pancakes, crispy chocolate and
fresh cream, a dinner that ran over by 60 minutes and one where the
dinner Guests broke out into spontaneous applause thereafter.

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1381
Dollar Index 96.08
Japan Yen 110.77
Swiss Franc 0.9971
Pound 1.3293
Aussie 0.7136
India Rupee 71.19
South Korea Won 1122.15
Brazil Real 3.7290
Egypt Pound 17.5120
South Africa Rand 13.9414

read more




Elon Musk tweets keep shares of #Tesla in constant motion: On Wed, he changed his Twitter screen name to "Elon Tusk" and posted cryptic tweets about news to come on Thursday at 2 p.m. California time. @Schuldensuehner
World Currencies


Elon Musk tweets keep shares of #Tesla in constant motion: On Wed, he
changed his Twitter screen name to "Elon Tusk" and posted cryptic
tweets about news to come on Thursday at 2 p.m. California time. A
company spokesman declined to elaborate. Shares closed up 5.7%. (via
BBG)

read more




Crude Oil Chart INO 56.72
Commodities


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more






President @OfficialMasisi, thank you for your friendship, and thank you for your support. As the new Zimbabwe finds its feet, we know that this is not a journey that can be traversed alone @edmnangagwa
Africa


President @OfficialMasisi, thank you for your friendship, and thank
you for your support.  As the new Zimbabwe finds its feet, we know
that this is not a journey that can be traversed alone. The days of
isolationism are behind us. We are opening up to the region and the
world

read more




Zimbabwe fuel crisis worsens @eNCA Video
Africa


Hundreds of Zimbabweans are queuing for fuel again as the shortage
worsens in the country.

read more



Blow For Zimbabwe As South African Banks Pull Dollar Supply Plug @allafrica
Africa


Zimbabwe is in a Catch-22 situation as South African banks have
stopped supplying the troubled southern African country with U.S.
dollar notes to avoid risk.
In 2018, central bank governor John Mangudya revealed that Zimbabwe
has over the past few years lost 102 correspondent banking
relationships due to high country risk.
"I think you are well aware that we are not officially dollarised
because we do not have an agreement with the United States of
America's government to use their currency because we just
unofficially dollarised the economy.''
"What that means is that it is difficult to bring in cash into this
economy. Ordinarily, we import the cash from South Africa and due to
de-risking issues, most banks in that country have given us notice
informing us that they can no longer provide us with the cash and this
means we must now provide the cash to our own banks.''
"The only bank that was still giving us cash is FNB bank and just in
December they told us that they will no longer be supplying us with
the United States dollars," he said.

read more


21-JAN-2019 :: The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between high Inflation and revolutionary conditions
Africa


“Money is accordingly a system of mutual trust, and not just any
system of mutual trust: money is the most universal and most efficient
system of mutual trust ever devised.”
“Cowry shells and dollars have value only in our common imagination.
Their worth is not inherent in the chemical structure of the shells
and paper, or their colour, or their shape. In other words, money
isn’t a material reality – it is a psychological construct. It works
by converting matter into mind.”
The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between
high Inflation and revolutionary conditions

read more



Naspers Spins Off African Pay-TV @MultiChoiceGRP @DStv at Initial Value of $3 Billion @BBGAfrica
Africa


Naspers Ltd. spun off African pay-TV unit MultiChoice Group Ltd. at an
initial valuation of about 42 billion rand ($3 billion), enabling the
continent’s biggest company to focus on its current incarnation as a
global internet-technology firm.
MultiChoice shares started trading at 95.5 rand in Johannesburg, and
was at 96.15 rand as of 9:13 a.m. Naspers, which makes up almost a
fifth of Johannesburg’s stock exchange, traded 2.3 percent lower at
3,069.99 rand after the spin off.
MultiChoice’s valuation could eventually settle at about $5 billion to
$6 billion, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst John Davies.
The shares may be volatile in the meantime, however, as Naspers
shareholders who automatically receive MultiChoice stock take time to
decide whether or not they want a pure Africa-TV play.
Naspers has come a long way since founding MultiChoice in 1985, most
notably making a jackpot investment in Chinese Internet giant Tencent
Holdings Ltd. in 2001. That 31 percent stake is now valued at about
$129 billion, more than Naspers as a whole, and an effort to close the
deficit is one of the reasons behind the MultiChoice separation.
MultiChoice has almost 14 million subscribers, of which about half are
in South Africa. Among its challenges as a standalone company will be
to reverse slowing revenue growth on the rest of the continent, where
cheaper alternatives -- including Netflix Inc. -- have sprung up
alongside rising household incomes and faster internet speeds.

read more


"This is a momentous time for our business... This marks the next chapter in our development and growth," said @MultiChoiceGRP CEO Calvo Mawela @ReutersAfrica
Africa


Naspers did not raise any money from the listing with the 439 million
shares instead being distributed to current Naspers shareholders on a
one-for-one basis for its listed shares and one for five unlisted A
class shares
Founded 30 years ago, MultiChoice reaches around 14 million households
in 50 African countries, offering both paid-TV products and a fledging
streaming service called Showmax.
The company has said there are more than 25 million households across
the continent yet to be captured by its traditional pay-TV business.
The spin off leaves MultiChoice — whose strong cash flow helped
Naspers evolve into one world’s biggest players in e-commerce - free
to fend for itself in an increasingly competitive market where Netflix
is already supplying viewers with TV content and Hollywood hits.

read more








Once again gold was the leading export commodity, solely fetching Uganda the most revenue of $514.8m (Shs1.8 trillion) @BOU_Official
Africa


Once again gold was the leading export commodity, solely fetching
Uganda the most revenue of $514.8m (Shs1.8 trillion). The BoU report
indicates that a total of 13,216 kilogrammes of gold were exported out
of the country, up from 10,380 kilogrammes sold the previous year.

read more







Kenya May Arrest Two Ministers Over Loss of Dam Funds, @TheStarKenya Says @business' @eombok
Kenyan Economy


At least two Kenyan cabinet secretaries are facing arrest for their
alleged role in two dam projects through which public funds were
misappropriated, the Star reported, citing people it didn’t identify.
The cabinet secretaries in the East African nation could face charges
of negligence or conspiracy to steal public funds meant for
construction of the dams in the Rift Valley, the Nairobi-based
newspaper said Thursday.
The two dam projects by the state-owned Kerio Valley Development
Authority will cost about $502 million, the agency said Thursday in a
newspaper statement. It is partly financed through a loan from the
Italian government, it said. A 15 percent advance payment was made to
the contractor and both projects are on schedule for completion within
the agreed period, according to the statement.
Kenyan authorities may arrest three county-governors for alleged
involvement in graft and the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission is
investigating another 12 of the East African nation’s 47
county-governors, the Star reported Feb. 21. Kenya has intensified
efforts to cut corruption related losses in order to avail more funds
to finance ambitious infrastructure projects.

read more


The withdrawal of MFN status by India to Pakistan, following the recent terrorists attacks in Kashmir, is seen resulting in making dearer the daily use items such as tea and tomatoes in that country. @thehindubiz
Kenyan Economy


As exports of Indian teas slow down, Pakistan is seen relying more on
imports of the beverage from Kenya. As a result, the prices of Kenyan
tea have started moving up.
“Pakistan imports around 65-70 million kg (mkg) of tea from Kenya
annually and this is bound to increase. This was reflected in the
price movement. Kenyan teas rose by ₹12-15 a kg today,” said Dipak
Shah, Chairman of The South India Tea Exporters Association.

read more


@EAPCC reports H1 2019 EPS [14.23] versus [10.55]
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           15.50
Total Shares Issued:          90000000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,395,000,000
EPS:             -16.35
PE:                 -0.948

A key provider of Cement and Cement products in Kenya for over 70 years.

East African Portland Cement Company HY 2019 results through 31st
December 2018 vs. 31st December 2017
HY Revenue 1.372146b vs. 3.062119b -55.190%
HY Cost of sales [1.800132b] vs. [2.916684b] -38.282%
HY Gross profit [427.986m] vs. 145.435m -394.280%
HY Other operating income 20.417m vs. 1.202m +1,598.586%
HY Administration and selling expenses [1.011450b] vs. [854.390m] +18.383%
HY Interest income 1.372m vs. 1.403m -2.210%
HY Finance costs [204.701m] vs. [313.492m] -34.703%
HY [Loss]/ profit before tax [1.622348b] vs. [1.145433b] -41.636%
HY Tax [charge]/ credit 355.545m vs. 175.860m +102.175%
HY [Loss]/ profit after tax [1.266803b] vs. [969.573m] -30.656%
EPS [14.23] vs. [10.55] -34.882%
HY Cash and cash equivalents as at 31st December [946.777m] vs.
[899.419m] -5.265%
No dividend

Company Commentary

PERFORMANCE
The first half of the year reflected a difficult business environment
on the backdrop of increased input prices, a sluggish market as well
as production challenges arising from a tight EAPC PLC working capital
position. This affected the ability of the company to effectively
provide the product sufficiently to all its customers. Consequently,
sales revenue declined by 55% over the same period in the prior year
leading to an increase of 66% in loss from operating activities. The
Company expects to continue reaping from reductions in administrative
expenses driven by the ongoing staff rationalization and outsourcing
of non – core administrative services.
Finance costs declined by 53% owing to restructuring of financing
facilities. The current liabilities exceeded current assets by Kshs
7.3 billion (June 2018 Kshs 6 billion). The board is aggressively
pursuing balance sheet restructuring to effectively address the
negative working capital. Relevant consultations and approvals to
recapitalize the business have been obtained.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
Future market outlook remains positive with the unveiling of the Big
Four Agenda by the National Government where affordable housing and
manufacturing were among the top priorities. The competitive
environment is expected to result in subdued cement prices in the near
future. Revenue enhancement and cost optimization will therefore
remain key focus objectives as the Company continues to leverage on
its brand to weather competitive pressure. Despite the depressed
results, the Board remains confident in realization of its turnaround
efforts and takes cognizance of Government support in concretizing
initiatives in sourcing for working capital. The Company is further
reorganizing its strategy and structure to reengineer the business in
order to improve performance, cost rationalization and efficiency.
This is geared towards reduction of the high Finance and
Administrative costs and stabilization of the value chain processes in
order to enhance efficiency and ultimately the Company's competitive
position.
The Board is optimistic that with the implementation of the Company’s
medium term plan, the Company will return back to profitability.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +10.08% 2019

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +3.48% 2019

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


Indo-Pak remains a Hair Trigger away from a serious conflagration.
"History tells us that wars are full of miscalculation." Pakistan's PM
@ImranKhanPTI
The thing about climbing the escalation ladder is that it is somewhat
like the initial exhilarating sense of grandeur in riding a tiger
@asiatimesonline's @BhadraPunchline
The Trump-Kim summit was cut short after North Korea demanded an end
to sanctions
"The President of the United States thus wrote a personal check for
the payment of hush money as part of a criminal scheme to violate
campaign finance laws" - said Michael Cohen in his  opening statement
I wrote in the Star on 07-AUG-2017 :: Any financial expert will tell
you that President Trump's financial affairs are a "smoking gun."
All those sales where Trump proclaimed himself a ‘’genius’’ because
they were so off-market, we would all be incredulous, were essentially
just that ‘’incredible’’.
There is a prima facie case here and its in plain sight.
Sterling trades like a Rocket on its way to Mars. Essentially both
Prime Minister May and Jeremy Corbyn stared down the barrel of a hard
Brexit and have capitulated.
Tanzania which is experiencing a Shilling in Free Fall, has shuttered
the Citizen newspaper for seven days, after it published a story on
the depreciation of the shilling against the dollar on February 23.
Tanzania has also shuttered Bureaux de Change.
The Lesson for Tanzania is an old one and Mrs. Thatcher was wont to repeat it
"There is no way in which one can buck the market." Prime Minister
Margaret Thatcher told the House of Commons:
The Tanzanian Shilling was trading at 2,345.00 with is an all time low.
The Kenya Shilling was last at 100.10 testing the key 100.00 level.
The Nairobi All Share corrected -1.313% lower.
The Nairobi NSE20 closed 38.19 points lower.
Volume picked up to clock 892.811m.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


The Indo Pak situation and the  withdrawal of MFN status by India to
Pakistan, following the recent terrorists attacks in Kashmir, means
Pakistan is seen relying more on Kenya for its Tea imports.
“Pakistan imports around 65-70 million kg (mkg) of tea from Kenya
annually and this is bound to increase. This was reflected in the
price movement. Kenyan teas rose by ₹12-15 a kg today,” said Dipak
Shah, Chairman of The South India Tea Exporters Association.
Tea Companies shifted higher with Naushad Meralis' Sasini Tea and
Coffee leading with a +5.307% gain.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom eased -2.07% to close at 26.00 and traded 13.9m shares worth
361.414m.  Safaricom has scorched +17.117% higher in 2019. Safaricom
has undergirded the bright and bushy tailed [best since 2013] start to
the year in 2019.

WPP ScanGroup downshifted --8.333% to close at 11.00 on heavy volume
action 8.295m shares [some 2.189% of the shares of the Company] WPP
ScanGroup is -21.42% in 2019 and this is in fact a more than 10 year
closing low.

WPP ScanGroup share price data here

https://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTE%3D

Kenya Airways which  has experienced a steep sell-off the catalyst for
which was the KAA KQ chatter and at times quite truculent debate.
Kenya Airways rebounded +3.618%.

LongHorn Publishers which released some quite promising H1 Earnings
pushed +3.157% higher to close at 5.88. Longhorn and is +27.541% in
2019.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


KCB Group eased -0.9512% to close at 41.65 and traded 2.777m shares
worth 115.699m. KCB is +11.21% in 2019 and a part of a firming price
trend across the Banking sector.
The NIC Bank reverse merger of course set the tone. NIC Bank eased
-1.517% to close at 35.70 and is the leading stock at the NSE in 2019
having bagged +28.417% gain this year. This is a Reverse Merger with
CBA Bank.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL firmed +0.9186% to close at 192.25 and traded 605,200 shares
worth 116.484m. EABL reported shapely First Half Earnings where HY
Revenue accelerated +18.256% to clock 41.574b and HY EPS expanded
+25.144%. EABL is +10.014% in 2019 and has now absorbed profit taking
pressure which in fact saw the share +25.89% through Feb 14th before
correcting.

KenGen eased -1.057% to close at 6.55 and traded 146,800 shares. The
Ethiopian Win is a Big Deal because it affirms the Potential around
geographical expansion for KenGen. The share price is seriously
undervalued.

East African Portland Cement reported First Half Earnings, HY Revenue
cratered -55.19%, EAPCC reported a Half Year Loss of [14.23] a share
versus [10.55] last time. In the accompanying commentary the Co.
pronounced ''Future market outlook remains positive with the unveiling
of the Big Four Agenda'' and ''The Board is optimistic that with the
implementation of the Company’s medium term plan'' EAPCC did not
trade.


-- 



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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