23rd May 2019
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 16th of May 2019
 
Morning
Africa

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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Bitcoin Rally Is Masking Capital Flight From Crypto Exchanges @crypto $8,020.00
Africa


Lost among the current bout of cryptocurrency euphoria is the fact
that capital outflows are exceeding inflows on some of the biggest
digital-asset exchanges.
While that may sound counter intuitive to the basic laws of supply and
demand with prices of Bitcoin and other tokens surging, it’s not that
rare an occurrence in a market that has been dogged by allegations of
fraud and manipulation over its decade long existence.
TokenAnalyst, a London-based provider of blockchain data, estimates
that withdrawals from trading platforms including Bitfinex, BitMEX,
Binance and Kraken have exceeded inflows by about $622 million over
the past 5 days.
Bitcoin’s more than 30% price rise since last week may have been
exaggerated by capital flight from the controversial exchange Bitfinex
and its affiliated stablecoin Tether in the wake of allegations that
the companies that control both co-mingled client and corporate funds
to hide losses.
As in past periods of turmoil, investors are seen seeking the safety
of Bitcoin because it’s the largest and most liquid token.
“Since Tether is insufficiently backed, it means that some of the
reserves backing customer assets on exchanges are likely
insufficient,” John Griffin, a finance professor at University of
Texas at Austin who had examined cryptocurrency market manipulation,
said in an email.
“So smart customers will not custody their funds on exchanges and pull
their crypto off exchanges. This could put further upward pressure on
Bitcoin prices as one would rather take fake money and exchange it to
Bitcoin.”
Data from TokenAnalyst shows that Bitfinex had net outflows of more
than $1.7 billion of Bitcoin and Ether from the exchange since April
26, after New York’s attorney general alleged the companies engaged in
a coverup.
Bitfinex and Tether dispute the allegation and have classified the
transfer of funds as a loan.
Bitcoin traded at a premium of as much as 6% on Bitfinex compared with
other crypto exchanges after the funding controversy broke, while
prices of many other coins initially tumbled since Tether is widely
used throughout the $250 billion market as an intermediary in crypto
trading.
The premium disappeared this week after Bifinex said it raised the
equivalent of $1 billion through an online sale of tokens.
On April 30, the companies behind Bitfinex and Tether said that the
stablecoin is backed by cash and short-term securities equal to 74% of
the outstanding coins rather than completely pegged to the U.S.
dollar.
That came as a surprise to many traders, who assumed it was fully
backed, and used Tether to park assets in during times of high
volatility in the crypto markets.
Kasper Rasmussen, a spokesman for Bitfinex, didn’t return a request for comment.
This wouldn’t be the first time for Tether to impact Bitcoin prices.
Last year, Griffin co-authored a paper looking at Tether’s role in the
2017 boom, when Bitcoin almost touched $20,000.
The authors concluded that Tether was used to manipulate
cryptocurrency prices, and that market manipulation accounted for half
of the runup.
“Given that the Bitcoin market can be manipulated in such a
significant way, it would not be a stretch nor surprising to find that
manipulative activity is behind the recent run up when the underlying
market mechanics are similar to before,” Griffin said.

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80% of the tariff burden will be borne by Chinese producers, according to one estimate. Nikkei Asian Review @NAR
Law & Politics


An analysis by EconPol Europe, a European think tank, of the effects
of Washington's Friday announcement to hike tariffs to 25% on $200
billion-worth of Chinese imports showed the same trend.
While consumer prices of these products in the U.S. would rise by
4.5%, their producer prices in China would plunge 20.5%, according to
EconPol's estimates. The figures mean that 80% of the tariff burden
will be borne by Chinese producers.

In Chinese internet, many people describe the current China-US
tussle as The Art of the Deal v.s. On Protracted War. Protracted war
is well known among Chinese as a strategy to exhaust opponent
@HuXijin_GT Hu Xijin 胡锡进

https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1128640027670355968

In Chinese internet, many people describe the current China-US tussle
as The Art of the Deal v.s. On Protracted War. The latter was written
by Mao Zedong in 1938 during China’s anti-Japanese war. Protracted war
is well known among Chinese as a strategy to exhaust opponent.

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European officials described Mr. @AmbJohnBolton and Mr. @SecPompeo as pushing an unsuspecting Mr. @realDonaldTrump through a series of steps that could put the United States on a course to war before the president realizes it @nytimes
Law & Politics


The Trump administration is looking at plans to send as many as
120,000 troops to the Middle East should Iran attack American forces
or accelerate work on nuclear weapons, The New York Times reported. On
Tuesday, Mr. Trump dismissed that as “fake news.” “We have not planned
for that,” he told reporters.
But he immediately added, “If we did that, we’d send a hell of a lot
more troops than that.”
Some of the president’s critics accept that Iran continues to engage
in what United States officials call “malign behavior,” be it in
Yemen, Syria or the Palestinian territories. But they blamed the
administration for aggravating the standoff with Tehran.
“This is a crisis that has entirely been manufactured by the Trump
administration,” said Vali R. Nasr, the dean of the Johns Hopkins
School of Advanced International Studies.
He pointed to Mr. Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear
deal in May 2018, coupled with the administration’s failure to get any
other nations to do so.
“In interviews in April, I predicted ‘accidents’ — not because I’m a
genius — but because #B_Team is so brazenly following @AmbJohnBolton’s
script,” Mr. Zarif said. “After all, half of B-Team were
co-conspirators in disastrous Iraq war.”
The hard-line tactics against Iran could backfire in two ways, said
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. If the sanctions crush its
economy, then Iran could act with less restraint, he said.
And if the sanctions do not work well, then some American officials
will advocate military action, a move that Israel, Saudi Arabia and
the United Arab Emirates are likely to support.
“There will be people in Washington who will push for limited kinetic
action against the Iranian regime to cut it down to size,” he said.

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What we know is this. Iran is at the Hunter S. Thompson[Ian] edge
Law & Politics


"The edge... There is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over,"

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MK BhadraKumar writes "If there can be a lethal game of Russian roulette in international politics, this is it"
Law & Politics


Russian roulette is a game of chance where players spin the cylinder
of a revolver with a single bullet in turns, put the muzzle against
their head and pull the trigger.The player has 16.67% chances of
firing a bullet into his head if there is one bullet in the 6-chamber
revolver. Each player starts by spinning the cylinder, thus each
player has an equal chance of being killed by the bullet. Quite
obviously, it’s an insane game that US President Trump started on May
8 last year. A big question can be put whether Trump himself wants
another Middle Eastern war. The Price of Oil has surged +34.173% in
2019 and in big part because of the ratcheting higher of tensions with
Iran. No number of Trump Tweets will dampen down the price.

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The attack on pumping stations of the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia is significant. @anasalhajji
Law & Politics


1- The attack on pumping  stations of the East-West pipeline in Saudi
Arabia is significant.  It reflects the realization that these
pipelines replace the passage through Hormuz Strait. In other words,
these pipelines reduce Iran’s ability to influence oil flow in the
Strait

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Donald J. Trump: A President Like No Other," Black writes: "Like the country he represents,Trump possesses the optimism to persevere and succeed" @ahmednasirlaw
Law & Politics


Donald J. Trump: A President Like No Other,” Black writes: “Like the
country he represents,Trump possesses the optimism to persevere and
succeed, the confidence to affront tradition and convention, a genius
for spectacle, and a firm belief in common sense and the common man.”

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10-DEC-2018 :: Truce dinner @Huawei and a "diss"
Law & Politics


Canada will face "grave consequences" [Xinhua: (Ch.) 严重后果] if it does
not immediately release Meng Wanzhou. The Vancouver Real Estate market
which has boomed for decades on the back of Chinese demand looks
horribly exposed.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1219
Dollar Index 97.473
Japan Yen 109.533
Swiss Franc 1.0079
Pound 1.2836
Aussie 0.6930
India Rupee 70.2215
South Korea Won 1191.15
Brazil Real 4.0014
Egypt Pound 17.04
South Africa Rand 14.1929

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The technicals for $GOLD continue to look good despite the dollar holding up and $SPX recovering @AdamMancini4 1295.35
Commodities


This week started off with Gold breaking out of a falling wedge in
play since the Feb high. Now, its forming a bull flag on the 1hr. A
break out would target $1308 and then $1320.

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Crude Oil @AdamMancini4 62.65 [69.00 Target]
Commodities


May hasn't been a great month for $OIL but there's still a setup here
to see another high to $69. 1) The trend from December is still up,
and 2) The recent pullback in this uptrend is a bull flag. It needs to
break out at 63.45 to trigger and invalidate a deeper correction

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"Agriculture is in a tough situation and it's not just trade," says Peterson. "We have a glut of commodities. I think we are (ag) looking at low prices for the next two to three years." @CarahHart
Commodities


“Agriculture is in a tough situation and it’s not just trade,” says
Peterson. “We have a glut of commodities. I think we are (ag) looking
at low prices for the next two to three years.” He also says tariffs
couldn’t have come at a worse time.

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08-JAN-2018 :: The Crypto Avocado Millenial Economy.
Commodities


The ‘’Zeitgeist’’ of a time is its defining spirit or its mood.
Capturing the ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Now is not an easy thing because we
are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment. Whether its President Trump’s
rat-a-tat Tweets or a mind boggling 625% share price advance because
an erstwhile Tea Company [The Long Island Iced Tea Corp was a
little-known company making non- alcoholic lemonades and ice teas]
renamed itself the Long Blockchain Corp. We are living in
extraordinarily fast moving times. Paul Virilio has said ‘Wealth is
the hidden side of speed and speed the hidden side of wealth’ and he
is not wrong.

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Fear of Election 'Bolt From the Blue' Has India Markets Worried @markets
Emerging Markets


Investors in India are bracing for an extreme event risk next week:
Prime Minister Narendra Modi failing to retain power.
The optimistic tone for the nation’s assets has fizzled out as the
trade impasse combines with concern about Modi’s ability to repeat his
landslide 2014 victory amid a resurgent opposition, farm distress and
a job crisis. A result that upsets the market’s base case view -- the
ruling party winning with a slim majority -- could lead to an adverse
reaction, analysts say.
“At a time when the trade spat has roiled risk assets globally, a
worst outcome will be like a bolt from the blue,” said Anindya
Banerjee, currency strategist at Kotak Securities Ltd. in Mumbai.
“India will see outflows from both stocks and bonds, and the rupee
could tumble to 75 per dollar and more.”
The currency, Asia’s top performer in March, has fallen 1.6% to 70.34
since President Donald Trump’s tweets rekindled the trade spat with
China earlier this month. The S&P BSE Sensex Tuesday halted a
nine-session losing streak, avoiding the longest-ever stretch of
losses, only to decline again on Wednesday as sentiment remains
fragile.
Still, India remains Asia’s top destination for overseas money this
year outside China, with net stock inflows of $9.8 billion.

Frontier Markets

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In a statement, head of TMC Burhan: Revolution has lost its peacefulness, so we halted negotiations for 72 hours pending: #SudanUprising @BSonblast
Africa


- removal of roadblocks
- clearing railroad tracks
- halt on all media escalation
- halt on antagonization of regime forces.

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The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack)
Africa


The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place
of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a
cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of
attack), in other words a producer of speed.

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South Sudan's Kiir warns against planned protests @africanews
Africa


South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir on Wednesday warned against planned
protestts, saying any forceful attempts to seize power in the country
would be met with “violent resistance”.
In the past two weeks, a new group calling itself the Red Card
Movement has been circulating calls online for a protest on Thursday
with the hashtags #KiirMustGo and #SouthSudanUprising, with organisers
appearing to be based mostly in the diaspora.
The movement appears to be inspired by street protests in neighbouring
Sudan which led to the toppling of veteran president Omar al-Bashir.
“Violent attempts to usurp power from the people would be met with
violent resistance and the cycle of violence cannot end,” Kiir told a
press briefing.
“The way to stability in South Sudan is through democracy and
democratic elections, and this is what we fought for and we will not
compromise it,” Kiir said.
Since last week security on the streets of Juba has been beefed up.
However officials have said this was unrelated to the planned
protests, but was in preparation for a public holiday Thursday
celebrating those who took up arms in the fight for independence from
Sudan, achieved in 2011.
Army spokesman Major-General Lul Ruai Koang told AFP that the
celebrations had been postponed by a week for “final touches” to
preparations.
“The security deployment and all sorts of security arrangements (are)
to provide maximum security and safety for the people during the
celebrations,” he added.
Independent radio station Eye Radio reported Wednesday that some Juba
residents had woken up to security officers going house to house
searching for guns.
South Sudanese activist Keluel Agok, now living in Kampala, is among
those calling for the protests.
“If you want to an end the impunity please come out on 16th May 2019
to restore liberty, justice and unity in South Sudan,” he wrote on
Facebook Tuesday.
South Sudan plunged into civil war in 2013 after Kiir accused his
former deputy Riek Machar of plotting a coup against him.
The war has left 380,000 people dead and forced more than four million
South Sudanese — almost a third of the population — to flee their
homes.
A peace deal signed in September 2018 has largely stopped fighting,
but implementation has run aground and the planned formation of a
unity government on May 12 was postponed for six months.

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Feud between @PaulKagame @KagutaMuseveni takes toll @mailandguardian
Africa


The people living on either side of the Ugandan-Rwandan border at
Katuna never much considered the boundary: children crossed for
school, workers moved freely and trade thrived.
That harmony evaporated in February when Rwanda abruptly closed the
crossing, with queues of cargo trucks and thronging merchants turned
back as soldiers from both armies marshalled along the forest-clad
border.
The blockade is a result of the worsening animosity between Rwanda’s
Paul Kagame and Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni, once close allies who backed
each other into power, but whose relationship has turned deeply
hostile.
The distrust between the presidents has burst into the open in recent
months, with the pair trading accusations of espionage, political
assassinations and meddling in each other’s backyards.
The spat risks dragging in their neighbours, threatening economic
integration and regional stability in an already conflict-prone swathe
of the continent.
The standoff escalated dramatically in March when Rwanda publicly
accused Uganda of abducting its citizens and supporting rebels bent on
overthrowing the government.
Museveni — who has admitted meeting, but not endorsing, anti-Kagame
rebels — harbours his own suspicions about his erstwhile ally. His
officials have accused Rwandans in Uganda of spying, and some have
been detained by military courts or deported.
“What is wrong is for Rwandan agents to try and operate behind the
government of Uganda,” Museveni wrote to Kagame in March.
The following month, Kagame threatened perceived enemies as he
digressed during a speech marking the 25th anniversary of Rwanda’s
genocide.
“Those who think we have not seen enough of a mess, and want to mess
with us, whether from here or from outside, I want to say: We will
mess up with them big time,” Kagame declared to applause, before an
audience peppered with foreign dignitaries.
But the interruption to trade is taking its toll.
Food prices have jumped in Rwanda, which relies heavily on imports
from its larger northern neighbour.
The blockade has also severed Uganda’s land access to export markets
in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Burundi.
“I have lived and worked here most of my life… business has never been
this bad,” said Philemon Mugasha, a Ugandan clearing agent at Katuna,
surveying the deserted streets usually buzzing day and night with
money changers, food vendors, truck drivers and prostitutes.
Rwandans are taking great risks to cross the border under the cover of
darkness. In May, a bean trader was shot in the arm by Rwandan troops
as he attempted to enter Uganda.
“If they see us, they will arrest us and beat us for defying their
order… it is dangerous,” said one Rwandan worker who crossed illegally
at Katuna to find work, and could not return.
For decades, armies commanded by Kagame and Museveni fought shoulder
to shoulder in East Africa, thrusting their generals into high office,
and overthrowing the DRC’s rapacious dictator Mobutu Sese Seko in
1997.
Kagame was appointed Uganda’s military intelligence chief after his
army of Rwandan exiles helped Museveni take power in 1986. Museveni
later returned the favour, backing Kagame’s invasion of Rwanda that
ended the 1994 genocide and secured his grip on the country.
But by the turn of the century, the romance was over. A festering
unease between their armies during the DRC campaign erupted into open
warfare in the city of Kisangani, leaving hundreds dead between 1999
and 2000.
The relationship never recovered. But despite the bad blood, Rwanda
and Uganda maintained full diplomatic ties, and troops stayed in their
barracks.
The neighbours both enjoyed robust economic growth and strong
relations with the West. Rwanda is a major contributor of
peacekeepers, and Ugandan soldiers are fighting terrorism in Somalia.
While Kagame did not name his enemies in his recent speech, shadowy
rebel groups seeking to oust him have proliferated in the region.
Rwanda has boosted security in its southwest region bordering
Burundi—with whom it has long had sour relations—and the DRC.
There have been several bloody incursions into Rwanda by one
anti-Kagame rebel group known as the National Liberation Front (FLN),
based in the DRC.
Western allies have advised their citizens to steer clear as the
attacks target a region popular among foreign tourists.
The UN has also reported that Kayumba Nyamwasa, a Kagame foe and
former military chief who runs the Rwandan National Congress, could be
raising a rebel army in the DRC.
“This is a contest to determine who between them is the kingmaker in
the region,” said Christopher Kayumba, a political analyst in Kigali.
War seems unlikely, experts say. But the brinkmanship is inflicting
casualties each day it drags on.
“They say when two elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. We
are suffering,” said Mugasha, the customs agents at Katuna.

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21-JAN-2019 :: The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between high Inflation and revolutionary conditions
Africa


Money is accordingly a system of mutual trust, and not just any system
of mutual trust: money is the most universal and most efficient system
of mutual trust ever devised.”
“Cowry shells and dollars have value only in our common imagination.
Their worth is not inherent in the chemical structure of the shells
and paper, or their colour, or their shape. In other words, money
isn’t a material reality – it is a psychological construct. It works
by converting matter into mind.”
The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between
high Inflation and revolutionary conditions

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@MoodysInvSvc's Says Angolan Economy to Return to Growth in 2019 @economics
Africa


Angola’s economy is likely to emerge from recession this year, growing
at 0.3% after three years of contraction, and the debt-to-GDP ratio
will fall to around 70%, Moody’s Investors Service said.
The debt burden remains vulnerable to further exchange rate
depreciation given the stock of foreign-currency and foreign-currency
linked debt as well as the risk of fiscal consolidation fatigue,
Moody’s said in an emailed statement.
"The implementation of the IMF program and the government’s efforts to
clear arrears, improve dollar liquidity and enhance budget
implementation, will support Angola’s economy," Aurelien Mali, a
Moody’s Vice President, said.
Reforms planned for this year, including the introduction of a value
added tax to broaden the non-oil tax base, will further increase the
likelihood of fiscal surpluses while oil prices remain around their
current levels, Moody’s said.

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Has Liberia's George Weah scored an own goal? @RFI
Africa


The Liberian economy has taken a serious nose-dive under the
leadership of former soccer icon, President George Weah. He came to
power in January 2018, elected on promises to revive the nation’s
economy and improve living standards, but he is struggling to turn
things around.
Since Weah's election, prices of basic commodities such as rice,
cooking oil and sugar have more than doubled. The local currency has
seen a drastic depreciation. You currently need 176 Liberian dollars
to buy a single United States dollar.

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Tanzania Was East Africa's Strongest Democracy. Then Came 'The Bulldozer.' @TheAtlantic
Africa


DAR ES SALAAM—John Magufuli began shaking things up on his first full
day in office.

On November 6, 2015, the newly elected president walked unannounced
into Tanzania’s Ministry of Finance, peering into empty offices and
interrogating frightened staff—letting it be known that a government
long characterized by laxity was in for a major change.
He later canceled independence day celebrations and redirected the
funding to fight cholera, purged more than 10,000 so-called ghost
workers from the public-sector payroll, and initiated a crackdown on
corruption and underperformance that saw numerous senior officials
sacked, some following scoldings on live television.
Africa took notice: Twitter users across the continent adopted the
hashtag #WhatWouldMagufuliDo to speculate how he might clean up their
own governments.
Ten months into his first term, polling by Twaweza, a regional
civil-society group, found that 96 percent of Tanzanians approved of
his performance. In a country that has long been one of the
continent’s most stable democracies, where freedom of expression has
historically been protected, that near-unanimous level of approval was
astounding.
Since then, a more troubling pattern has set in: In its three and a
half years in power, Magufuli’s government has jailed rival
politicians, pop stars, and journalists; prevented teenage mothers
from returning to school; and threatened mass arrests of LGBTQ
Tanzanians.
New regulations severely restrict social-media critics and criminalize
the publication of data not endorsed by the government.
Tundu Lissu, an outspoken opposition member of Parliament, barely
survived an attempted assassination in 2017, and last October,
Mohammed Dewji, Tanzania’s only billionaire, was kidnapped for 10
days. Mdude Nyagali, a young opposition activist, was abducted by
gunmen on May 4; he was discovered last week dumped in a bush and
showing signs of torture. Critics say that none of these acts have
been thoroughly investigated by the authorities.
Now Tanzania’s 60 million people are beginning to realize that the
honeymoon period is over, and that their country is more and more
being governed by repression.
“There’s been a big shift to a much more constricted, constrained
environment,” Aidan Eyakuze, Twaweza’s executive director, told me.
“People are scared to say what they used to be able to say.”
Eyakuze’s own passport was seized by the authorities after his
organization reported last July that support for the president had
plummeted to 55 percent.
In some ways, the 59-year-old Magufuli is hardly an anomaly in a
region dominated by strongmen.
Though much of sub-Saharan Africa saw sweeping democratic gains after
the Cold War, political and civil rights have remained stagnant in
West Africa, declined moderately in southern Africa, and fallen
precipitously in the East and Central subregions since the mid-2000s,
according to the think tank Freedom House.
While new leaders in Ethiopia and Angola have made notable recent
strides toward openness, democracy in Tanzania’s neighborhood is
hardly robust.
Leaders of three of its immediate neighbors—Uganda, Rwanda, and
Burundi—have clung to power beyond their original legal mandates and
preside over some of the world’s worst human-rights records.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, former President Joseph Kabila
has positioned himself to rule by proxy in retirement.
Although Kenya, East Africa’s economic powerhouse, has avoided the
“presidents for life” syndrome, its elections are regularly disputed.
Tanzania long stood out as an exception. A single party, known today
as Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has ruled the country since Tanzania’s
1964 creation as a merger between the former British colony of
Tanganyika and the British protectorate of Zanzibar.
But Tanzania’s leaders have respected term limits, and tolerated a
vibrant opposition since the adoption of a multiparty system in 1992.
The country has never experienced major civil conflict. Many credit
Tanzania’s first president, Julius Nyerere, with forging a strong
sense of national identity, which minimized the ethnic divisions that
continue to plague many countries in the region.
Yet Nyerere’s economic policies, including a failed scheme that
resettled millions of people into planned villages, also left a legacy
of underdevelopment. Even as economic growth accelerated over the past
decade, Tanzania remained notorious for its slow pace of life and a
government often paralyzed by waste and dysfunction.
Hassan Abbas, the chief government spokesman, says superfluous trips
and unnecessary workshops—frequently at beachside resorts—were rife.
Magufuli, the son of peasant farmers who earned the nickname “The
Bulldozer” during his road-building tenure as minister of works,
changed all that. He greatly restricted civil-servant travel and has
yet to leave the continent as head of state.
Few would dispute that accountability under his rule has risen—Abbas
boasts that Magufuli has “relieved” more than half of his cabinet
ministers.
While some question the lack of due process, many Tanzanians support
this drive against impunity. Twaweza polling in November 2017 found 85
percent of citizens believed that corruption had declined from five
years prior.
Felista Mauya, an attorney with the Legal and Human Rights Centre in
Dar es Salaam, says stronger oversight has led to notable improvements
in key public services, such as health care.
“This president came into power with a certain vigor and zeal to make
sure things are happening,” Abbas says. “We want to see a Tanzania
that is running.”
At the same time, Mauya and other civil-society activists say the
assault on civic space has been sustained and vigorous—a result of
both top-down decrees and legislation written by the CCM-dominated
Parliament.
Magufuli’s government has banned the live broadcast of debates in
Parliament and enacted regulations imposing hefty fees on bloggers. It
has also actively enforced a 2015 “cyber crimes” law, signed by his
predecessor, Jakaya Kikwete, that was intended to combat the spread of
false information but also designates jail time for “insulting” the
president and has been used as part of a wider campaign against
dissent.
And it has severely restricted opposition rallies, despite the fact
that they are allowed by law; several opposition politicians,
including Freeman Mbowe, leader of the main opposition party, Chadema,
face charges of sedition.
Magufuli’s “muscular nationalism,” as Eyakuze calls it, includes an
intensifying war on information. In February, authorities suspended
The Citizen, a leading English-language daily, for a week after it
reported a decline in the value of the Tanzanian shilling and a slight
discrepancy between rates on the street and at commercial banks.
Amendments to the national statistics act passed by Parliament in
September prescribe jail time for communicating or disseminating any
data “intended to invalidate, distort, or discredit official
statistics.”
Critics fear that this will stifle independent research, like the
polls carried out by Twaweza—which now has to seek permission to
conduct its next round of surveys—and outlaw third-party oversight of
crucial government data.
“Economic management in a democracy means that people need to have a
shared understanding of reality,” says Justin Sandefur, a senior
fellow at the Washington, D.C.–based Center for Global Development,
who formerly advised Tanzania’s National Bureau of Statistics.
“The government is working really hard to make sure it has a monopoly
on that shared understanding.”
Coincidentally or not, these amendments come amid growing evidence
that Magufuli’s top-down economic management has led to unintended
consequences.
Although the World Bank forecasts 2019 GDP growth to exceed 6 percent,
Tanzanians from various walks of life report that money is tighter—in
Twaweza’s July poll, 72 percent of respondents mentioned poverty as a
major challenge for the country, compared with 34 percent before
Magufuli took office.
Restrictions on the export of grain and a bizarre plan to cut out
middlemen from the cashew industry have rankled farmers.
Businesspeople say the crackdown on corruption has had the unintended
consequence of making it harder to do deals, and rising policy
uncertainty has compelled banks to withhold lending. Acts of resource
nationalism—such as the levying of an extraordinary $190 billion tax
bill on London-based Acacia Mining, initially met with praise at
home—are making foreign investors wary. Last month, the Tanzanian
government blocked publication of an IMF report that warned of
“unpredictable and interventionist policies” it deems likely to
significantly hinder economic growth. The suppression of civil
liberties has caused some development partners to withhold funding,
while a drive to collect taxes, including from petty traders who have
long operated outside the formal economic system, has further squeezed
the poor. Richard Fabian, who sells kingfish, barracuda, and red
snapper along the bustling Dar es Salaam waterfront, says the economic
situation now is the worst he’s experienced in his 15 years on the
job. Sales have been so poor that his wife and children have returned
to their home village because he had to downsize his rental from a
family house to a single room.

Fabian, like 58 percent of the electorate, voted for Magufuli in 2015,
and despite his predicament says he appreciates his cleaning up of
government and may support him for reelection next year—particularly
if the economy begins to rebound. He may not have a choice: Newly
passed legislation gives a state-appointed registrar sweeping powers
over internal political-party matters, which opposition leaders say
puts the country on a path toward becoming a de facto one-party state.
Hashim Rungwe, an attorney and the chairman of the Chaumma Party who
finished fifth in the 2015 presidential election and is considering
running again, says the prospect of a free and fair vote next year is
highly dubious. And democratic space, he fears, will only continue to
decline thereafter.

“We are going backwards,” the 70-year-old says from his Dar es Salaam
office. “Only one person is giving orders. And when he orders, you
comply.”

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The African Development Bank (@AfDB_Group) estimates that 62% of Africa's exports are primary products
Africa


As a result, Africa earns just 5.5% of the $100 billion cocoa trade,
despite accounting for 75% of the world’s cocoa supplies. A similar
story applies to tobacco, coffee, cotton, and others, leading to a
clear consensus: for Africa to earn more and develop through trade, it
must process its raw materials to higher-value semi-finished or
finished products.
According to the Food & Agriculture Organisation (FAO), a United
Nations (UN) body dedicated to ending global hunger, the yield on a
staple like cereal is 1,444 kg per hectare in Nigeria, compared to
3,810 kg in South Africa and 7,114 kg in Egypt.

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Kenya raises $2.1 bln with dual-tranche Eurobond @Reuters
Africa


Kenya has raised $2.1 billion in a new Eurobond that comes in tranches
of 7- and 12-year tenors, in an issue that was oversubscribed more
than four times, the finance ministry said on Thursday.
The East African nation, which made its debut in international capital
market in the summer of 2014, issued 10- and 5-year tranches that were
met by huge investor appetite. Early last year, it returned for 10-
and 30-year tranches bond.
The seven-year portion of the latest issue was priced at 7.0%, while
the longer-dated tranche was priced at 8.0%, well below the initial
guidance price of 7.5% and 8.5% respectively, the ministry said.
The government received bids worth $9.5 billion for the Eurobond from
investors, an oversubscription of 4.5 times, the ministry said in the
statement from London.
The proceeds will be used to fund infrastructure projects, general
budgetary spending and refinance part or all of a $750 million dollar
bond that will mature on June 24, the ministry said.
Both tenors of the new bond will be amortized at $300 million and $400
million respectively for the 7- and 12-year tenors annually in the
last three years to maturity in order to avoid a surge in repayments,
the Treasury said in the statement.

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Tanzania one million-tonne maize surplus boosts Nairobi supply @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


Surplus stocks in Tanzania have raised maize supply helping cool the
rising price of the produce in Kenya.
Tanzania has announced it has more than a million-tonne surplus, which
it will sell to the regional states, unlike previously when it imposed
an exports ban.
Millers in Mombasa and Nairobi are getting supplies from traders
bringing in the commodity.
The maize is landing in Nairobi at Sh3,200 a bag.
“There are good stocks coming in from Tanzania and we are getting some
too from Uganda.
“This maize will go a long way in boosting the current limited stocks
in the country,” said Gerald Masila, Executive Director of Eastern
Africa Grain Council.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 101.15
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +4.69% 2019

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -5.35% 2019

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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