23rd May 2019
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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 22nd of May 2019
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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Howard Waring French (born October 14, 1957) is an American journalist, author, and photographer, as well as professor at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism.
Africa


His latest book is Everything Under the Heavens: How the Past Helps
Shape China's Push for Global Power (Knopf, March 2017).
His most recent work for The New York Times was centered on China
where he was the paper's Shanghai bureau chief, from 2003 to 2008.
French was New York Times bureau chief for the Caribbean and Central
America from 1990 to 1994; he covered Haiti, Cuba, Nicaragua, El
Salvador, and numerous other countries.
He was one of the newspaper's first black correspondents.[1]
From 1994 to 1998, French covered West and Central Africa for the
Times, reporting on wars in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Central Africa,
with particular attention to the fall of the longtime dictator of
Zaire Mobutu Sese Seko.
From 1998 to 2003, French was Tokyo Bureau Chief for the Times,
covering Japan and the Koreas.
In addition to his native English, French speaks Mandarin, French, and
Portuguese.[2] He became Tokyo bureau chief for the Times in 1999,
after a year studying Japanese at the University of Hawaii in Manoa.
He has written for The New York Review of Books and also contributed
frequently to The Atlantic and to "The Guardian Longreads".

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A Continent for the Taking: The Tragedy and Hope of Africa By Howard French Knopf, $25.00
Africa


A Continent for the Taking: The Tragedy and Hope of Africa By Howard
French Knopf, $25.00

Early in his rambles through West Africa as a correspondent for The
New York Times, Howard French arrived in Lagos, the steamy financial
capital of Nigeria. The most populous nation in Africa had just been
taken over by Gen. Sani Abacha, a sinister figure who concealed his
eyes behind dark sunglasses and who had a predilection for ordering"
Mafia-style hits against political opponents. Nigeria's promise had
long since been frittered away by a succession of corrupt military
dictators and civilian rulers, but under Abacha, who seized power in
1993, the thievery had become ever more brazen. Within minutes of his
arrival, French was set upon by both a rapacious immigration official
and a soldier who demanded his passport and threatened him with
arrest. Then the reporter's Nigerian "fixer," David, stepped in,
rebuking the assailants and holding firm even as the soldier raised
his gun. As the soldier beat a retreat, David offered French some
cogent counsel. "You must never fear those people," he says. "If you
do, you are finished."

It is a piece of advice that French had repeatedly to fall back on in
the course of his four years as the Timed roving bureau chief based in
Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire. A Continent for the Taking: The Traged and
Hope of Africa, his vivid, disquieting memoir of those times, conjures
up a succession of flailed states in which the shakedown is a way of
life, destitute soldiers terrorize civilians at will, and the
slightest display of weakness becomes an invitation for predation. In
chapter after evocative chapter, he chronicles the murderous
kleptocracy of Abacha in Nigeria, the outbreak of the deadly Ebola
virus in Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of Congo), the
drug-and-diamond-fueled carnage in Liberia, and the epic fall of
Zairian dictator Mobutu. It's depressing, Hobbesian stuff. Yet in
sharp contrast to Out of America, Keith Richburg's bitingly
pessimistic account of his years as an African- American correspondent
covering the Rwandan genocide and clan warfare in Somalia, French,
also an African American, sees Africa as a continent still dense with
possibility. The tug of war between ordinary citizens yearning for
democracy and ruthless leaders determined to squelch those aspirations
is one of the driving themes behind French's book. So, too, is the
often-destructive role played by the United States, which, as lie
documents, propped up the worst of these dictators and demagogues,
then often stood by as their nations disintegrated around them.

Macro Thoughts

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"We have a deviate, Tomahawk." "We copy. There's a voice." "We have gross oscillation here."
Africa


“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure
it’s helping.”
“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.” “Thank you, Colorado.”
“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the
step-function quad.”
“It was a voice,” I told them.
“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will
correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”
The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
sadness”.
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”

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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice
Africa


If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or
to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel
California:

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “
What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.

Conclusions

It took a long time to unwind but unwind it will

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President Widodo secures victory in election, with challenges ahead @XHNews
Law & Politics


President Joko Widodo has won the election by a margin of 55.5 percent
of the vote while his rival, ex-general Prabowo Subianto, got 44.5
percent.
Widodo is set to start his second term of 5-year presidency in October
this year.
Observers believe that his victory shows that the public has casted a
"confidence vote" on his first term of office, and Widodo, who has
been re-mandated by voters, is expected make a push of greater
in-depth reforms.

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09-JUL-2018 :: Tariff wars, who blinks first?
Law & Politics


a “Chickie Run.” Both race stolen cars towards the edge of a cliff.
The first to eject out of his car is branded a “chickie.”

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China Has a Rare Chance to Strike Back on @Huawei @bopinion
Law & Politics


It’s hard to think of more potent symbolism: In one of his first
public outings since President Donald Trump’s decision to blacklist
Huawei Technologies Co., President Xi Jinping decided Monday to visit
a rare earths plant.
Rare earths have traditionally been a tool of China’s
political-economic fights. When Beijing fell out with Tokyo in a 2010
dispute about the ownership of some islands east of Taiwan, it cut
export quotas for the minerals and halted shipments to Japan
altogether.
That was a potentially powerful weapon. Japan’s technology industry
depends on rare earths, which are useful in niche applications such as
light-emitting diodes and the high-strength neodymium magnets popular
in YouTube science videos.
At the time, China accounted for around 97% of global production,
leaving Japan Inc. at the mercy of Beijing’s customs officials – and,
more to the point, their bosses.
That bit of muscle-flexing hasn’t entirely worked in China’s favor.
Global consumption of rare earths, which had gone up by 27% in the
five years before the 2010 dispute, fell by 7.2% over the following
five years as consumers found ways to reduce their dependence on an
unreliable supplier.
Thanks to its ownership of mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo,
an offtake agreement with Glencore Plc, and its dominance of
processing capacity, China produces about 80 percent of the world’s
cobalt chemicals, too.
Battery-grade nickel – another key ingredient for electric-car cells –
is heading the same way, with Chinese-backed projects in Indonesia
producing high-grade nickel and cobalt likely to dominate supply
increases over the next few years.
In normal times, one wouldn’t want to worry too much about this. As
with rare earths (and, in the 1970s, crude oil), any attempt to
subject vital commodities to political control is likely to lead to
demand destruction and efforts by consumers to diversify supply
sources. But what’s happening with Huawei should be a hint that these
are not normal times.

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15-OCT-2018 :: By March 2018 in a Shakespeare level moment of hubris, Xinhua pronounced this historical announcement
Law & Politics


the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China “proposed to
remove the expression that ‘the president and vice-president of the
People’s Republic of China shall serve no more than two consecutive
terms’ from the country’s constitution.”  In one fell swoop, President
Xi Jinping was President for Life. That was the Apogee.

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Emerging and Frontier markets are shivering as they start to factor in the China - Emerging and Frontier Markets [Add Germany to that mix] Feedback loop Phenomenon
Law & Politics


If China sneezes a whole lot of Countries are going to get a very
serious bout of influenza.
Interestingly, In our case, we are relatively immune to this
phenomenon because China is not a Big Taker [Avocado hopes aside] of
our Exports

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Currency vs USD YoY @radicalAdem
World Currencies


Egypt: +5%
Mexico: +3%
Japan: -0.3%
India: -1.8%
Indonesia: -2.1%
Canada: -4.5%
Euro: -4.6%
UK: -4.7%
Russia: -5.1%
China: -8.8%
Australia: -9%
South Korea: -11%
Brazil: -11%
South Africa: -15%
Pakistan: -31%
Turkey: -32%
Argentina: -83%
Via @spectatorindex

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1168
Dollar Index 97.994
Japan Yen 110.46
Swiss Franc 1.0103
Pound 1.2670
Aussie 0.6893
India Rupee 69.663
South Korea Won 1189.60
Brazil Real 4.0393
Egypt Pound 16.9870
South Africa Rand 14.3589

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10-DEC-2018 :: Truce dinner @Huawei and a "diss"
World Currencies


An important market for Huawei has been Africa. In fact, Huawei is the
bloodstream of Africa’s telecom infrastructure. How this plays out in
Africa is now an ‘’above the radar’’ issue.

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Been a tough week for Huawei bondholders. @DavidInglesTV
Law & Politics


And allow me to again use this beg. This is (again) not targeted at
any specific but please stop saying Wa-Way! Stop it now.

It’s HOO -WA-WAY (quick on the first 2 syllables) or Who (as in Doctor
Who) - Wa (baby crying) - Way (Sinatra)

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Our policy is not going to be driven by @realDonaldTrump says @bobcollymore re @SafaricomPLC relationship with @Huawei
World Currencies


share data Closing Price: 26.15 Market Capitalization:
1,047,710,942,200 EPS: 1.58 PE: 16.551

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Bonds Tied to Online Loans Are Getting Riskier, @FitchRatings Warns @markets
International Trade


Debt graders are giving high ratings to riskier and riskier bonds from
online lenders, Fitch Ratings warned in a report that swipes at rival
firms like Kroll Bond Rating Agency.
Bonds backed by loans from startups like Avant, Prosper Marketplace
and LendingClub Corp. have weaker safeguards for investors than they
did two years ago, but are still earning ratings in the A tier or
higher, Fitch said.
If the economy sours and borrowers default in greater numbers, the
notes could be subject to downgrades, the ratings firm said. Fitch
focused in particular on a safeguard known as credit enhancement,
which helps protect investors from losses in the loans backing the
securities.
Fitch remains unconvinced. As an example of what the ratings firm sees
as slipping standards, it pointed in a report last week to weaker
credit enhancement in securitizations from online lender Avant.
Investors in the company's A rated asset-backed bonds sold in 2017
would suffer losses after the underlying loans lost more than 43%. For
2018 deals, losses come after declines of 36%, and for a deal that was
sold in March, 31%.
Data show similar trends for securitizations from LendingClub,
Marlette, and Prosper. Many of the firms tightened their lending
standards sometime before 2017 through steps like increasing minimum
consumer credit scores.
Those tighter standards have only resulted in stable performance for
loans, rather than improving performance, a sign that overall trends
for the loans are deteriorating, said Orenstein.
At least some investors are wary of the asset class, which has only
been in existence for about six years and has seen cumulative issuance
of only about $45 billion.
"This market has really not been tested under more distressed economic
conditions," said Gregory Finck, a portfolio manager and head of
securitized-credit investments at Morgan Stanley Investment
Management.

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The rout in benchmark coffee prices BBG
Commodities


Arabica futures for July delivery gained as much as 3.8% to 93.35
cents a pound on Tuesday. The price reached 87.6 cents a pound on May
7, the lowest since 2005. Robusta futures in London are trading near
the weakest in nine years.

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In sub-Saharan Africa, urban population has doubled since the mid-1990s, reaching 400 million people in 2016. 40% of region's total population resides in cities, compared to 31% in 2000. @VOANews
Africa


Africa has become the world's most rapidly urbanizing continent.
In sub-Saharan Africa, the urban population has doubled since the
mid-1990s, and reached 400 million people in 2016.
According to experts, 40 percent of the region's total population
resides in cities, compared to 31 percent in 2000.
During the next 15 years, the United Nations predicts the world's 10
fastest-growing cities will be in Africa.
But Africa already has many large cities, and those cities are getting
larger. Lagos, in Nigeria, is projected to become the largest city in
the world, with an estimated population of 88.3 million people by the
year 2100, according to the World Economic Forum.

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"Now approaching 226 million, the number of smartphone connections across Africa has doubled over the last two years" CNN
Africa


Thanks to one of Google's many products, TensorFlow, rural farmers on
the continent can diagnose diseased plants by taking a photo of it.
TensorFlow came with the launch of Google's artificial intelligence
(AI) center in Accra, Ghana's capital city earlier this year.
Just as Google is using technology to create tools that address
Africa's growing needs, Microsoft continues to invest in growing tech
talents on the continent.
This week, the company launched its Africa Development Centre (ADC)
with two initial sites in Nairobi, Kenya and Lagos, Nigeria.
More than 100 local engineers and developers will be hired to work in
the new Microsoft facilities in both countries across artificial
intelligence, machine learning and mixed reality innovation, according
to Microsoft. The plan is to grow this pool of workers to 500 by 2023.
"Our desire is to recruit exceptional engineering talent across the
continent that will build innovative solutions for global impact,"said
Michael Fortin, Microsoft's corporate vice president in a statement.

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Jonas Malheiro Savimbi (Portuguese: 3 August 1934 - 22 February 2002)
Africa


Jonas Malheiro Savimbi (Portuguese: [ˈʒonɐs ˈsavĩbi]; 3 August 1934 –
22 February 2002) was an anti-communist and anti-colonialist Angolan
political and military leader who founded and led the National Union
for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA).
UNITA first waged a guerrilla war against Portuguese colonial rule,
1966–1974, then confronted the People's Movement for the Liberation of
Angola (MPLA) during the Angolan Civil War until Savimbi's death in a
clash with government troops in 2002.[1]

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Vedanta Seeks Urgent Meeting Over its Besieged Zambian Unit @markets
Africa


Vedanta Resources Ltd. is seeking an urgent meeting with Zambian
President Edgar Lungu over the threat to its local assets after a
state-owned investment company asked the Lusaka High Court to
liquidate them.
Lungu at the weekend accused Konkola Copper Mines of lying and
cheating and said Africa’s second-biggest copper producer would find
other investors to take over the assets.
On Tuesday, Zambia’s ZCCM Investments Holdings Plc applied for the
liquidation of KCM, in which it holds a 20.6% stake.
“Vedanta is a long-standing, loyal investor in KCM and in Zambia
having invested over $3 billion since the acquisition of the asset in
2004” and paid about $1.3 billion in taxes in that period, the
companies said in an emailed statement.
KCM on Tuesday reported a $165 million operating loss before items in
the year through March for its Zambian unit.
The state’s intervention is “lawful, orderly and under the due
process” and Lungu won’t be meeting Vedanta, his spokesman said by
text message.
“There are no immediate plans to do so, given that there is a legal
process underway and so we don’t want any undue pressure on the court
process, whose next hearing is this Friday,” Amos Chanda said.
There is “no room” for the government to take over KCM, Chanda said.
Rather, the “liquidator will now engage all creditors and act as
reliable bridge with government, which has a leverage over the more
than three prospective investors seeking to take over KCM.”
The stand-off has exacerbated a spike in the yield on Zambia’s
Eurobonds to almost 20%, and a selloff in the nation’s currency, which
is the world’s worst performer against the dollar after Argentina’s
peso.
Zambia’s economy was already struggling amid a drought and soaring
foreign debt, and the tension with Vedanta is heightening investor
anxiety.
On Monday, government ordered police to man all gates at KCM’s assets,
state-owned ZNBC radio reported, citing Copperbelt Province Minister
Japhen Mwakalombe. Mineworkers unions have expressed support for the
government’s moves.
Zambia has for years accused mining companies including Vedanta of not
paying enough tax and has made 10 changes in the past 16 years as it
struggles to settle on a comprehensive system for the industry.
The state has had several run-ins with KCM and in 2013 revoked its
chief executive officer’s work permit over planned job cuts.
This year’s royalty increases have come as Lungu’s government seeks
cash to settle a surging foreign-debt bill. Servicing external loans
has already caused foreign reserves to drop to a decade low.

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@BarrickGold Plans to Mop Up Rest of @AcaciaMining to End Tanzania Pain @business
Africa


Barrick Gold Corp. is proposing to buy the shares of Acacia Mining Plc
it doesn’t already own at a discount, arguing that the plan offers a
route to end the unit’s crippling dispute with Tanzania’s government.
The $285 million proposal made to Acacia’s board and management will
offer 0.153 of Barrick shares for each Acacia share, the Toronto-based
company -- which already owns about two-thirds of the target, said in
a statement.
The proposal implies a valuation of $787 million for the whole of
Acacia, Barrick said. That’s below the company’s current $832 million
market capitalization, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Acacia
said it’s considering the proposal and will also seek to clarify the
position of Tanzania’s government.
Barrick’s Chief Executive Officer Mark Bristow -- who took the post in
January and assumed oversight of talks with Tanzania on Acacia -- has
previously criticized peers for offering large premiums, and in
February made a hostile nil-premium offer for Newmont Mining Corp.,
which was later withdrawn.
Acacia shares fell as much as 8.4% in London trading on Wednesday. The
stock has tumbled since 2017, when Tanzania banned the export of
unprocessed metals, then presented the company with a $190 billion tax
bill, equivalent to two centuries of revenue. Earlier this month,
Bristow flagged Barrick may need to intervene to “force” agreement on
a final settlement.
For almost two years, Barrick has been leading negotiations with the
government, first under Executive Chairman John Thornton and, more
recently, under Bristow. In meetings with Barrick in recent days,
Tanzania’s government indicated “it is not prepared to enter into a
settlement directly with Acacia,” the larger producer said in its
statement.
“A basis for a settlement has been developed but not finalized, in
meetings this weekend,” Barrick said.
A framework deal previously struck in 2017 had proposed Acacia should
pay $300 million to settle the tax claims and agree to split returns
from operations with the country going forward.
Barrick’s offer “reflects fair value,” as well as its experience
leading the negotiations and other due diligence, the producer said.
The proposal is subject to conditions including the recommendation of
Acacia’s board, Barrick said.
Relations between the companies appeared to have worsened this month,
when Acacia CEO Peter Geleta pushed back against Barrick’s criticism
over the lack progress in efforts to reach a settlement.
“Acacia notes that it continues to be excluded from the discussions
between Barrick and the government of Tanzania,” the company said in a
statement on Wednesday. “In the meantime, Acacia shareholders are
strongly advised to take no further action.”
Barrick has until June 18 to decide if it will make a firm intention
to make an offer, the company said.

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Together with the enthusiastic support of state media, @edmnangagwa and his officials have announced more than $27 billion of planned investment ranging from new platinum mines to steel mills and hydropower dams @business
Africa


The economy is in its most dire state since 2008, when inflation
surged to an estimated 500 billion percent. Medicines, fuel and
foreign currency are in short supply, prices of basic goods such as
bread are surging and the International Monetary Fund has forecast the
first economic contraction in 11 years.
And many of the investment projects announced by the government
haven’t progressed beyond the memorandum of understanding or
feasibility stage.
“We are still very confident that the bulk of the investments and
expressions of interest will materialize,” said Nick Mangwana, the
government spokesman.
“Of course there will be those that fail to get finances to invest in
Zimbabwe because of the blight of sanctions, and there will be those
who also delay whilst they monitor the success of our current reforms,
but in the whole we are very optimistic.”
May 15, 2019: In an article headlined “U.K. beef giant takes over
CSC,” the Herald said Zimbabwe’s state-owned cold-storage company
would transfer its cattle ranches and abattoirs to Boustead Beef Ltd.
for 25 years in exchange for it investing $130 million in the company
and paying off debts of $42.5 million.
ZwNews reported on the same day that the British firm is a “briefcase
company” with no history of doing business. There is no record of
Boustead on the U.K.’s companies register.
April 23, 2019: Mines Minister Winston Chitando said an agreement has
been signed with China’s Tsingshan Holding Group Co. to build a 1
million-metric-ton per year stainless-steel export facility in the
landlocked country, as well as a power plant and a possible lithium
mine at a total cost of $10 billion.
April 10, 2019: Deputy Mines Minister Polite Kambamura said a deal had
been signed with Russian investors to build a $4 billion platinum
mine. The project is struggling to attract finance because potential
backers are wary of the stake held by Zimbabwe’s military.
Feb. 19, 2019: A venture between the Zimbabwean and Zambian
governments said they’ve shortlisted bidding groups for a $4 billion
hydropower plant on the Zambezi River.
Nov. 1, 2018: Mnangagwa told reporters that Invictus Energy Ltd. had
found oil and gas deposits in the country. The next day, Invictus said
it hadn’t discovered oil.
May 18, 2018: The Herald reported that South Africa’s Nkosikhona
Holdings will build a $5.2 billion coal-to-fuel plant in Zimbabwe. A
search of South Africa’s company records shows Nkosikhona has one
director and an address in a light-industrial area.
March 22, 2018: Zimbabwe signed a $4.2 billion deal with Karo
Resources, a closely held Cyprus-based company, to build a platinum
mine.
On April 17, Mnangagwa tweeted that the project is moving ahead and
will create 2,500 jobs. On May 15, Tharisa Plc, which has taken a
stake in the project, said some drilling has started and the company
is awaiting approval of its environmental-impact assessment study.
Zimbabwe has plenty to offer, with a cornucopia of minerals including
the world’s third-biggest platinum-group-metal reserves, and some of
the best transport infrastructure in the region.
Local ownership rules have been relaxed, as has a currency regime that
hindered access to dollars.
Still, a disputed 2018 election, in which Mnangagwa retained power,
and the violent suppression of protests earlier this year have
underscored the country’s instability.
Few companies with a “rational level of risk appetite” will invest in
the country in its current state, said Jee-A van der Linde, an
economist at NKC African Economics.
The African Development Bank estimated foreign direct investment last
year at $470 million, about a third of the $1.1 billion attracted by
northern neighbor Zambia and a fraction of the $2.3 billion that
flowed into Mozambique, which lies to the east.
For some Zimbabweans, the investment pledges evoke memories of Mugabe,
who was prone to announcing mega-deals that didn’t materialize.
For example, in September 2017 Mugabe announced plans to revive
Zimbabwe Iron & Steel Works Ltd., once the second-largest steelmaker
in sub-Saharan Africa. The project never got off the ground.
““Mega-deals may be mega-deals, they may be mega-nonsense,” said Joe
Chabikwa, who sells potted plants to passing motorists in the capital,
Harare. “These days you believe what you see with your own eyes.”

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Zimbabwe's Currency Rout Stops as It Touts $500 Million Plan @markets
Africa


Zimbabwe may not yet have pushed through with its plan to alleviate a
crippling dollar shortage, but its currency has already strengthened
on the black market.
The RTGS$ appreciated about 27% from a record low on Monday, according
to marketwatch.co.zw, a website run by financial analysts, after the
central bank said it would inject $500 million into the
foreign-exchange market.
The central bank is intervening to stem a rout in recent weeks and as
the price of goods soars at the fastest pace in more than a decade.
Local investors have been piling into the stock market to hedge
against inflation, which climbed above 75% in April.
Governor John Mangudya said on Saturday the injection would “go a long
way to stabilize the exchange rates and prices of goods and services,”
and Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said the money is from
“international banks,” without naming them.
The loan is a four-year facility obtained from the African
Export-Import Bank and uses platinum production as collateral, a
person familiar with the details of the agreement said.
The foreign-currency crisis is choking businesses and heaping pressure
on President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who came to power in 2017 and won an
election in July, promising to revive an economy that had all but
collapsed under his long-standing predecessor and ally, Robert Mugabe.
“Investor confidence has sunk,” said Chiedza Madzima, a senior analyst
at Fitch Solutions in Johannesburg.
“Since elections last year, there has been a significant erosion of
trust that the authorities can maintain political and economic
stability and implement key reforms needed to attract investors.”
Zimbabwe revamped its currency system in February as long queues
formed for fuel, medicine and other imported goods.
Deadly protests had erupted a month earlier after the government more
than doubled gasoline prices.
The central bank’s decision to scrap a peg tying RTGS$ to the U.S.
dollar at parity and let it trade on a formal market seemed to work at
first.
But a lack of liquidity and transparency over which companies and
individuals can access hard currency from the central bank started to
raise doubts about the new system.
An absence of inflows from investors, who are concerned the
government’s fiscal policy is still too loose, didn’t help.
While the black-market rate has now strengthened to 5.5 per dollar
from 7, it’s still almost 40% weaker than the official value of 3.48.
The equity market is also under stress. The Zimbabwe Industrial Index
has risen for 19 straight days and is up about 20% this quarter, the
most globally.
That’s bad news. In Zimbabwe’s topsy-turvy markets, rising equities
are a sign that local investors are rushing to protect themselves
against inflation. The assumption is that stock prices will rise in
tandem with those of goods and services across the economy.“Pressures
are mounting for wage increases to cope with” inflation, said John
Robertson, an independent economist based in Harare. “Desperation
seems to be growing.”
Reflecting how skewed the market is, the Harare shares of Old Mutual
Ltd., Africa’s largest insurer, trade at about 2.3 times the price of
those in London and Johannesburg, when converted to the same currency.
The difference has grown from 1.6 times in mid-April.
“Zimbabwe’s solution lies in the faster adoption of key reforms,” said
Fitch Solutions’ Madzima.
“These include fiscal consolidation, strengthening core institutions
such as the central bank and liberalizing key sectors like mining,
electricity and fuel. These may take years as they require
simultaneous engagement with multilateral lenders.”

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Zimbabwe hikes fuel prices again; new currency slides
Africa


The fuel price rise, likely to push up the country’s soaring inflation
rate, was accompanied by a plunge in the country’s RTGS dollar - which
posted its biggest one-day fall against the U.S. dollar on the
interbank market.
Oil firms started buying dollars on the interbank to import fuel on
Tuesday, having previously been allowed to use a 1:1 dollar to RTGS$
rate.
The latest price increase had been expected. It followed a 150% fuel
price hike in January, which sparked violent street protests and led
to the death of a dozen people after a harsh security
crackdown.[nL8N1ZE26M]
The Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority (ZERA) said in a circular
that diesel would now cost RTGS$4.89, up from RTGS$3.26, and petrol
RTGS$4.97, compared with RTGS$3.38. It had earlier on Tuesday denied
plans to increase the price of fuel.
The Reserve Bank had been under pressure to remove the fuel subsidy,
with economists saying some fuel companies were accessing cheap
foreign currency and selling it on the black market instead of
importing fuel.
Traders at three commercial banks said the RTGS$ had weakened to a low
of 4.6 against the greenback compared to 3.5 at the opening of trading
on Tuesday, its biggest drop in a day since the interbank was launched
on Feb. 22.
Treasury’s permanent secretary, George Guvamatanga, said the
government would subsidize public transport and that the state bus
company would charge a maximum of RTGS$1 for local trips to cushion
commuters from the effects of the fuel price hikes.

read more




South Africa All Share Bloomberg +5.28% 2019
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.3688

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.0066

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +4.44% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -3.86% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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South Africa's Strategic Fuel Fund is welcome to bring in partners to help it execute a $1 billion agreement to drill for oil and build a refinery and pipeline in South Sudan, the central African nation's oil minister said.
Africa


Under the agreement, signed between the two governments on May 6, the
Strategic Fuel Fund holds 90% of the project in B2 block with the Nile
Petroleum Corp., South Sudan’s national oil company, owning the rest,
Ezekiel Gatkuoth said in an interview at Bloomberg’s office in
Johannesburg after earlier meeting his South African counterpart.
The project, which Gatkuoth expects to reach production in about six
years, includes the construction of a 60,000 barrel per day oil
refinery in Pagak, he said.

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BREAKING Kenya police have closed 5 Hawala operated by Somalis Among those closed Hawala includes TAAJ, AMAL #Somalia @DalsanFM
Kenyan Economy


BREAKING Kenya police have closed 5 Hawala operated by Somalis,. The
move comes hours after Somalia Minister and MPs were denied visas
despite holding diplomatic passports. Among those closed Hawala
includes TAAJ, AMAL #Somalia

read more


The talks between President Kenyatta and Ms @FedericaMog centred on trade relations and Kenya's role in regional security @StateHouseKenya
Kenyan Economy


The talks between President Kenyatta and Ms Mogherini centred on trade
relations and Kenya’s role in regional security. Ms Mogherini assured
the President of EU’s commitment in supporting peace and security
activities in the horn of Africa and the East and Central Africa
region.

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20-MAY-2019 :: The "Kachumbari bond"
Kenyan Economy


Its not often that the Annals of Gastronomy and Finance meet unlike in
the days of yore when I traded the French markets and Sherveen used to
put me up in a suite in The Meurice and we would both quaff some very
fine wine [Chateau Margaux to be precise] at the Jules Verne
restaurant which was half way up the Eiffel Tower.

Kenya sold $2.1b of ''“Kachumbari'' Eurobonds last week. Its not clear
where the naming impulse came from but for clarity's sake, Kachumbari
is a fresh tomato and onion salad dish that is popular in the cuisines
of East Africa. It is an uncooked salad dish consisting of chopped
tomatoes, onions, and chili peppers. The Swahili word kachumbari
originated from the Indian word cachumber. Therefore, I approve of the
appellation because it speaks with some subtlety to an Indian Ocean
heritage and in a circular manner brings us to Andrew Korybko's point
that

The "Indian Ocean Region" is expected to become the geostrategic
center of gravity and that Kenya is not only a land based Transit
State but also a Gateway to the Indian Ocean Economy.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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