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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 04th of July 2019
 
Morning
Africa

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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The Swing by Kabir In Memoriam @bobcollymore.
Africa


Between the Poles of the Conscious and the Unconscious there has the
Mind made a Swing. Thereon hang all Beings and all worlds, and that
Swing never ceases it's Sway Millions of Beings are there The Sun and
the Moon in their courses are there Millions of ages pass And The
Swing goes on. All Swing! The Sky and the Earth and the Air and the
Water

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"Don't forget the real business of war is buying and selling"
Africa


“Don’t forget the real business of war is buying and selling. The
murdering and violence are self-policing, and can be entrusted to
non-professionals. The mass nature of wartime death is useful in many
ways. It serves as spectacle, as diversion from the real movements of
the War. It provides raw material to be recorded into History, so that
children may be taught History as sequences of violence, battle after
battle, and be more prepared for the adult world. Best of all, mass
death’s a stimulous to just ordinary folks, little fellows, to try
grab a piece of that Pie while they’re still here to gobble it up. The
true war is a celebration of markets,” Thomas Pynchon said.

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Law & Politics


“I can see, on the horizon, unpronounced and unproclaimed images. I
can sense the hypnotic qualities of things that to everyone else look
unobtrusive, then excavate and articulate these collective dreams with
some clarity.”

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Werner Herzog: The Art of Being a Death-Defying, Gonzo Filmmaking Genius @RollingStone
Africa


 He’s been called “a genius,” “a madman,” “a visionary,” “the last
great hallucinator in cinema” – and that list does not end either.

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Donald Trump's supposed "deal of the century," offering the Palestinians economic bribes in return for political submission, is the endgame of western peacemaking, the real goal of which has been failure, not success.
Law & Politics


The more they have compromised, the further the diplomatic horizon has
moved away – to the point now that the Trump administration expects
them to forfeit any hope of statehood or a right to
self-determination.

In the Spirit of ‘’Reality TV’’ which of course sinks or swims on
ratings, Trump detoured into DMZ AND became the first sitting US
president to cross into North Korea after meeting Mr Kim at the DMZ
The Ratings were off the charts Osaka #G20大阪サミット
http://bit.ly/2XH6qKg

Tehran must be calculating that they need to speed up Iranium
enrichment and get a proper deterrent and then they too will be
holding hands with President Trump. Osaka #G20大阪サミット
http://bit.ly/2XH6qKg

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Can the #G20 summit end trade wars and political infighting? #G20OsakaSummit @AJEnglish @AJInsideStory
Law & Politics


Presenter: Divya Gopalan
Guests:
Felicitas Weber - project lead at the Business and Human Rights
Resource Centre  @FelWeber
John Kirton - director of the G20 Research Group, an independent
network of global scholars providing analysis on the G20 @jjkirton
Aly-Khan Satchu - economist and CEO of Rich Management

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1283
Dollar Index 96.767
Japan Yen 107.803
Swiss Franc 0.9864
Pound 1.2577
Aussie 0.7027
India Rupee 68.8455
South Korea Won 1169.25
Brazil Real 3.8268
Egypt Pound 16.605
South Africa Rand 14.0112

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U.A.E. Moves to Extricate Itself From Saudi-Led War in Yemen @WSJ
Emerging Markets


WASHINGTON—The United Arab Emirates is aiming to pull most of its
forces out of the Saudi-led campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen,
extricating itself from a four-year war that has provoked
congressional opposition and has become a flashpoint with Iran in the
region. In recent weeks, Abu Dhabi has begun pulling tanks and attack
helicopters out of the country, according to Western officials. It
also has withdrawn hundreds of soldiers from the Red Sea coast,
including those close to the port city of Hodeidah.

Conclusions


One Houthi Drone Attack on DXB and it will crater the UAE

Frontier Markets

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Deadly air strike on Libya migrant centre sparks outrage @AFP
Africa


- Outrage and calls for an independent probe mounted Wednesday as 44
migrants were killed in an air strike on a detention centre in Libya
that the UN said could constitute a war crime.
UN chief Antonio Guterres denounced the "horrendous" attack and
demanded an independent investigation as the Security Council said it
would hold urgent talks about the situation in the country.
Libya's internationally-recognised government and its arch-foe
strongman Khalifa Haftar traded blame for the deadly assault, which
the European Union called a "horrific" attack.
Bodies were strewn on the floor of a hangar in the Tripoli suburb of
Tajoura, mixed with the blood-soaked clothes of migrants, an AFP
photographer said.
"There were bodies, blood and pieces of flesh everywhere," a survivor,
26-year-old Al-Mahdi Hafyan from Morocco, told AFP from his hospital
bed where he was being treated for a leg wound.

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Abandoned by the UAE, Sudan's Bashir was destined to fall @Reuters
Africa


In his 30 year rule, Sudan’s Omar Hassan al-Bashir survived coup
attempts, rebellions and war. Insiders say it was his failure to read
the politics of the region, and maintain one key alliance, that led to
his downfall.
KHARTOUM – On the night of April 10, Sudan’s feared spymaster, Salah
Gosh, visited President Omar Hassan al-Bashir in his palace to
reassure the leader that mass protests posed no threat to his rule.
For four months, thousands of Sudanese had been taking to the streets.
They were demanding democracy and an end to economic hardship.
Gosh told his boss, one of the Arab world’s longest serving leaders,
that a protest camp outside the Defence Ministry nearby would be
contained or crushed, said four sources, one of whom was present at
the meeting.
His mind at ease, Bashir went to bed. When he woke, four hours later,
it was to the realization that Gosh had betrayed him. His palace
guards were gone, replaced by regular soldiers. His 30-year rule was
at an end.
A member of Bashir’s inner circle, one of a handful of people to speak
with him in those final hours, said the president went to pray. “Army
officers were waiting for him when he finished,” the insider told
Reuters.
They informed Bashir that Sudan’s High Security Committee, made up of
the defence minister and the heads of the army, intelligence and
police, was removing him from power, having concluded he’d lost
control of the country.
He was taken to Khartoum’s Kobar jail, where he’d imprisoned thousands
of political opponents during his rule. There he remains. It was a
remarkably smooth putsch against a man who had seen off rebellions and
attempted coups, survived U.S. sanctions and evaded arrest by the
International Criminal Court on charges of genocide and war crimes in
Darfur.
They described how Bashir mishandled one key relationship - with the
United Arab Emirates. Oil-rich UAE had previously pumped billions of
dollars into Sudan’s coffers. Bashir had served UAE interests in
Yemen, where the Emirates and Saudi Arabia are waging a proxy war
against Iran. But at the end of 2018, as Sudan’s economy imploded and
protesters took to the streets, Bashir found himself without this
powerful, and wealthy, friend.
Relations between Bashir and the UAE were still warm in February 2017,
when Bashir visited Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi.
Some 14,000 Sudanese troops were fighting in Yemen as part of a Saudi
and UAE-led military coalition against Iranian-aligned rebels.
The prince, known among diplomats as MbZ, was now hoping for Bashir’s
cooperation in another regard - cracking down on Islamists - said a
senior official in the Sudanese government who was briefed on the
meeting by Bashir.
In broadcast remarks during the meeting, MbZ thanked the Sudanese
leader for sending his troops to support the UAE and Saudi Arabia in
Yemen. “I want to say a word of truth about the president. When the
going got tough and things got worse, Sudan supported the Arab
alliance without asking for anything in return,” said MbZ, sitting
alongside Bashir.
Billions of dollars from the UAE flowed to Sudan after the Abu Dhabi
talks. The UAE state news agency reported that in the year to March
2018, the UAE channeled a total $7.6 billion in the form of support to
Sudan’s central bank, in private investments and investments through
the Abu Dhabi Fund For Development.
In March 2018, Sudan and Qatar announced plans for a $4 billion
agreement to jointly develop the Red Sea port of Suakin off Sudan’s
coast.
Bashir had chosen not to throw his support behind the UAE and Saudi
Arabia in the dispute.
In December 2018, the UAE halted fuel supplies to Sudan, three
Sudanese officials said, unhappy that Bashir wasn’t meeting his end of
the bargain to squeeze out Islamists. “The Emirates and Saudi decided
not to support Bashir financially because he refused to get rid of the
Islamists and would not give in to pressure to support Saudi Arabia
and the Emirates against Qatar,” said Habani. “They would not accept
that Sudan would not take sides.”
Increasingly desperate for money, Bashir travelled to Qatar later the
same month for talks with the emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani.
According to the member of Bashir’s inner circle, the emir had offered
Bashir a billion dollar lifeline. But Bashir returned home empty
handed, the source said, after the emir revealed he was under pressure
from “certain parties” to change his mind. The emir didn’t specify who
these parties were.
When protesters set up camp outside the Defence Ministry, not far from
Bashir’s residence, on April 6, Gosh’s National Intelligence and
Security Service did nothing to stop them. “That’s when we realized
the army was taking over,” said Habani, the senior member of Bashir’s
National Congress Party.
Gosh reached out to top officials including the defence minister, the
army chief of staff and the police chief. They agreed it was time to
end Bashir’s rule. A source close to Gosh said each of the men
realized “Bashir was finished.” A spokesman for the Transitional
Military Council that now rules Sudan confirmed that Gosh took a lead
role.
On June 3, Hemedti’s soldiers crushed the sit-in outside the Defence
Ministry, opening fire on protesters. Opposition medics say over 100
people were killed. Sudanese authorities put the number at 62.
Then the soldiers set about clearing away the placards and banners,
emblazoned with the slogans, “We don’t want to be like Egypt” and
“United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia stop interfering in Sudan.”

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21-JAN-2019 :: Its the End Game in Khartoum
Africa


President Bashir has managed to claw his way back into position before
and is a political Harry Houdini otherwise he would not have lasted
more than three decades but its clear these are “the last days” or
“end times.”

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And now we have two visions of the Future
Africa


And now we have two visions of the Future. One Vision played out on
our screens, the Protestors could have been our Wives, our Children,
our Daughters and Sons. The Other Vision is that of MBS, MBZ and
Al-Sisi and its red in tooth and claw. Vladimir and Xi backed the Gulf
and America is below the radar.

Hugh Masakela said ''I want to be there when the People start to turn
it around'' Sudan is a Masakela Pivot moment

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Lets start in Khartoum. The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution was as intoxicating as the Oudh that the Saudi Arabian Ambassador once gave me and I found myself semi delirious intoxicated on my own perfume.
Africa


The exquisite murals, the composition of the crowds, the element of
Girl Power which spoke to hope and a Future. As I watched events
unfold it felt like Sudan was a Portal into a whole new another
Normal. David Pilling in the Financial Times captured the Essence by
quoting William Wordsworth, who wrote of the French Revolution:

OH! pleasant exercise of hope and joy! For mighty were the auxiliars
which then stood Upon our side, we who were strong in love! Bliss was
it in that dawn to be alive, But to be young was very heaven!--
Not in Utopia, subterranean fields, Or some secreted island, Heaven
knows where! But in the very world, which is the world Of all of
us,--the place where in the end We find our happiness, or not at all!

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POWER OF THE STREET: In late 2018, thousands of protesters took to the streets in anger at soaring bread prices. They demanded an end to Bashir's rule. @Reuters
Africa


POWER OF THE STREET: In late 2018, thousands of protesters took to the
streets in anger at soaring bread prices. They demanded an end to
Bashir’s rule. Above, a masked protester waves a Sudanese flag outside
the Defence Ministry compound in Khartoum in April. REUTERS/Umit
Bektas

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The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it becomes a motor in other words a producer of speed.
Africa


The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place
of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a
cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of
attack), in other words a producer of speed.

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Zimbabwe's Hail-Mary Pass to Ease Dollar Woes Works, For Now @economics @PaulWallace123
Africa


Crisis-stricken Zimbabwe may have landed a raft of major
monetary-policy reforms that were dubbed by one analyst as a
“Hail-Mary pass.”
Last week, the central bank banned the use of foreign currencies as
legal tender, officially reintroduced the Zimbabwean dollar a decade
after it was wiped out by hyperinflation, hiked overnight interest
rates to 50% and removed a cap on banks’ foreign-exchange trading
margins. While slammed by some businesses, the moves have succeeded in
reducing the gap between the nation’s official and black-market
exchange rates. The latter has strengthened to 9.50 per U.S. dollar
from a record low of 12.90 last week, according to marketwatch.co.zw,
a website run by financial analysts. Along with the central bank’s
weakening of the interbank rate, the difference between the two is now
the narrowest since at least early 2017. Some locals and businesses
criticized the return of the Zimbabwe dollar, saying it could
accelerate inflation that’s already at almost 100%. Costs haven’t
climbed so far. Fast-food chain Simbisa Brands Ltd. reduced prices on
Wednesday at some of its chicken and pizza outlets.
“It looks like they caught the pass and they’re running with it,” said
Kato Mukuru, head of frontier-markets research in Dubai for
EFG-Hermes, the investment bank that described it as a Hail Mary. “But
it’s still far from being a touchdown. The biggest problems could
still be to come.”
He’s skeptical because Zimbabwe has nowhere near enough foreign
exchange to support the currency and pay for vital imports such as
fuel and medicine, which are running low.
Plus, he said, higher interest rates will hit consumer demand and may
cause non-performing loans to spike.
The government said it was drawing down part of a $500 million line
from the African Export-Import Bank to supply the interbank market
with dollars. But that won’t last long as it covers less than a month
of imports, said Mukuru.
It’s unclear whether Zimbabwe -- which wants a loan from the
International Monetary Fund but needs to clear debt arrears before
it’s eligible for one -- has other sources it can tap for hard
currency.

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25-FEB-2019 :: Currency Puzzles
Africa


“The introduction of a Zim dollar will be just in name, but the RTGS$
is essentially the Zim dollar.”

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Nigeria to Sign African Free-Trade Pact at @_AfricanUnion Meeting in Niger
Africa


Nigeria will sign a continental free-trade deal at an extraordinary
summit of the African Union this weekend, bringing the duty-free
movement of goods in the region a step closer. The economy of Africa’s
most-populous nation vies with South Africa to be the continent’s
biggest and signing up clears a hurdle in the implementation of the
African Continental Free-Trade Agreement. President Muhammadu Buhari
last week received a report urging him to sign the deal from a
committee set up to consider whether the country should join. Nigeria
will sign the deal at the summit in Niger “after extensive domestic
consultations, and is focused on taking advantage of ongoing
negotiations to secure the necessary safeguards against smuggling,
dumping and other risks or threats,” the nation’s Presidency said on
Twitter. African intra-country trade is at about 15% of the total
compared with 20% in Latin America and 58% in Asia, according to the
African Export-Import Bank. This could more than double within the
first decade after implementing the deal, the Cairo-based lender said
in a report last year. After four years of talks, the mechanics of the
agreement will be negotiated in phases and it should be fully
operational by 2030.
“We need to double the growth in Africa and I think this will
certainly be one of the components to drive growth,” Hafez Ghanem, the
vice president for Africa at the World Bank, said in an interview in
Nairobi, Kenya’s capital.
“Having free trade and one common market will be one of the components.”
The agreement came into force on paper in May.
While Nigeria signing up will play a key part in the trade bloc
reaching its potential, there are structural challenges, Aurelien
Mali, vice president and sovereign analyst at Moody’s Investors
Service, said in an emailed note.
“Power generation and logistics infrastructure are weak in most
countries in the trade area, both of which play a crucial role in
supporting trade and manufacturing in Africa,” he said.

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Will Africa's historic Free Trade Agreement succeed? African Continental Free Trade Agreement #AfCFTA @AJENews @AJInsideStory @MartineDennis
Africa


Presenter: Martine Dennis
Guests:
Aly-Khan Satchu - CEO of Rich Management and an emerging markets economist
Stephen Yeboah - cofounder of Commodity Monitor
Olusegun Okubanjo - founder and managing partner of finance firm OBSIDIAN

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +10.00% YTD
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.02

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

28. Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 16.603

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +8.45% YTD

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -6.54% YTD

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -6.99% YTD

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

This really is a gem @nytimes : “from the deserts of Sudan and the
pirate seas of the Horn of Africa ...” This kind of reporting from
Nairobi will make “Out of Africa” or “Snows of Kilimanjaro” look like
cinéma vérité. @hozic/

https://twitter.com/hozic/status/1146599988169977856

The ⁦@nytimes⁩’ job ad for Nairobi bureau chief says a lot about
the kinds of stories they want from Eastern Africa...@kopalo

https://twitter.com/kopalo/status/1146476907694874624

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Our PMI survey shows a rise to 54.3 in June. @StanbicKE
Kenyan Economy


Driving the climb was accelerated growth in activity due to a steep
improvement in operating conditions at Kenyan private sector
businesses. This is attributed to the ease of cash flows in the past
several months.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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