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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 08th of July 2019
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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And bund yields will keep falling too...using a regression channel, it would suggest that -1.6% is the objective...@RaoulGMI
Africa


So, the knock on effects are all lining up to push one bank after
another of the Cliff of Death...and there ain't a thing the ECB can do
about it, as they have only one mandate - inflation. They HAVE TO cut
rates. And this is why Christine Lagarde has been brought in...
The ECB is going to need to become political. It is going to have to
rescue an EU-wide banking system and put the banks into state hands
and buy the extra gov debt and they are going to need to force fiscal
reforms and massive fiscal stimulus. They will use the situation to
force through tighter EU fiscal consolidation, maybe even leaving some
nations behind. Lagarde is perfect for this. It's what the IMF does.
She is also a lawyer and a politician. The problem is, this stuff
takes time. The ECB will buy any credit instrument to avoid capital
markets seizing up but shareholders are going to sense an equity
wipeout over the debt holders, so equities bear the brunt of it (and
bunds go more negative). The dollar will get bid as the $ funding
crisis can not easily be solved by the ECB and lending at the margin
tightens And a strong dollar would destroy the banks and the global
economy. It's all very circular and there are very few circuit
breakers. Throw in heightened trade wars between EU/US (highly likely)
and China/EU/US and you have a very big issue. And my problem with all
of this It's that the probability is much much higher than I'd like.
And that is the reason to own bonds, dollars, bitcoin and gold. The
former two are the beneficiaries of current needs, and the latter two
are the high-gamma options on this escalating into an extreme  policy
event.

Home Thoughts

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Eland at sunset, Chikwenya, Mana Pools, Zimbabwe
Africa


Mana Pools is one of the world’s wildest and best preserved natural
ecological areas.  With 70% of the park only traversable on foot, it
truly is an explorers’ paradise.  It has always had exceptional
wildlife and Zimbabwe’s safari guides are often cited as the best in
Africa. Two safari companies now have three camps each in the Mana
Pools area, leading to the question whether people could be tempted to
stay for a week in this one area, as they do in the South Luangwa.

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A thick veil of mystery surrounds the fire that broke out in a state of the art Russian submersible in the Barents Sea @asiatimesonline
Law & Politics


A thick veil of mystery surrounds the fire that broke out in a state
of the art Russian submersible in the Barents Sea, leading to the
death of 14 crew members poisoned by toxic fumes. According to the
Russian Defense Ministry, the submersible was conducting bathymetric
measurements, as in examining and mapping deep sea conditions. The
crew on board was composed of “unique naval specialists, high-class
professionals, who conducted important research of the Earth’s
hydrosphere.” Now the – so far unnamed – nuclear-powered vessel is at
the Arctic port of Severomorsk, the main base of Russia’s Northern
Fleet.

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@BorisJohnson Set for Crushing Victory Over Hunt, Poll Suggests @bpolitics
Law & Politics


YouGov poll has Johnson getting 74% of the vote, Hunt just 26%
The new prime minister is expected to be announced -- and then take
office -- during the week of July 22.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
International Trade


Euro 1.2232
Dollar Index 97.192
Japan Yen 108.31
Swiss Franc 0.9902
Pound 1.2526
Aussie 0.6986
India Rupee 68.597
South Korea Won 1179.84
Brazil Real 3.8195
Egypt Pound 16.6230
South Africa Rand 14.2071

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13-MAY-2019 :: No number of Trump tweets will dampen the price. Iranians will surely manage to shutter the straits of Hormuz even if after an asymmetric fashion.
Commodities


What we know is this: Iran is at the Hunter S. Thompson[Ian] edge.
“There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who
really know where it is are the ones who have gone over'' if the US
thinks
that Tehran will just roll over, which appears to be the case, then
they are exhibiting the same deluded ideas that they exhibited a day
before the peacock Throne got plucked. Iran is a geopolitical bleeding
edge.

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"If Britain does not release the Iranian oil tanker, it is the authorities' duty to seize a British oil tanker," Mohsen Rezai, a Major General in the Revolutionary Guards Corps @Telegraph
Commodities


"If Britain does not release the Iranian oil tanker, it is the
authorities' duty to seize a British oil tanker," Mohsen Rezai, a
Major General in the Revolutionary Guards Corps and head of the
country’s influential Expediency Council, which advises the Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"Islamic Iran in its 40-year history has never initiated hostilities
in any battles but has also never hesitated in responding to bullies,"
Maj Gen Rezai added.

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Turkey fires central bank chief as policy differences deepen amid economic malaise @Reuters
Emerging Markets


Turkey on Saturday fired its central bank governor as policy
differences between the government and the bank deepened in the face
of an economic slump, volatility in the lira currency and high
inflation. Murat Cetinkaya, who had been serving as the governor since
April 2016, was removed from the role and was replaced by his deputy
Murat Uysal, a presidential decree published on the official gazette
showed. No official reason was given for the sacking, but markets have
speculated over recent weeks that Cetinkaya may be pushed out by the
government because of his reluctance to cut rates. The central bank
has faced pressure in the past from President Tayyip Erdogan to lower
interest rates to revive an economy which slipped into recession
earlier this year. Cetinkaya had hiked the benchmark interest rate by
a total of 750 basis points last year to support the ailing lira
TRYTOM=D3, pushing it to 24 percent by September where it has since
been left unchanged. Erdogan, whose son-in-law is the finance and
treasury minister, repeatedly criticized the central bank for keeping
rates high.

“The President and the finance minister demanded his resignation, but
Cetinkaya reminded of the bank’s independence and declined to resign,”
the other source said.

“Those who removed the central bank governor overnight have lost the
right to demand confidence in the country’s economy. The central bank
is a captive being kept in the palace,” said the main opposition party
spokesman Fakir Ozark, referring to Brogan’s office.

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13-AUG-2018 :: Cold Turkey. @TheStarKenya
Emerging Markets


And then ‘’Even if they got dollars, we got ‘our people, our God’’’
[In the markets that is called a ‘’Hail Mary’’ pass]

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13-AUG-2018 :: In 1998, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher told the House of Commons: "There is no way in which one can buck the market."
Emerging Markets


President Erdogan is a shakespearean figure, he has slayed enemies
real and not real, his chest has been puffed up with pride, he even
rescued the Emir of Qatar but he has now met his match, that match
being the market

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Tripoli, which has only held out as long as it has supposedly because of Turkish support. @AKorybko
Africa


The GNA is comprised of Muslim Brotherhood fighters and their
offshoots who came to power after 2011, which is why Erdogan supports
them so strongly and has a stake in their continued leadership of the
country, something that Haftar is adamantly opposed to because he sees
his countrymen’s collaboration with Turkey as treasonous.
Should Turkey suffer highly publicized losses at the hands of Haftar’s
forces, then it might embolden the country’s Cypriot, Greek, Kurdish
separatist, and Syrian enemies in its immediate neighborhood if they
interpret those developments as a sign of weakness proving that the
Turkish military is just a “paper tiger” incapable of properly
defending its interests and/or defeating its first conventional
military adversary in decades. Erdogan is therefore in a classic
dilemma since he’s damned if he retreats but equally damned if he
doesn’t and ends up being humiliated by Haftar. It’ll remain to be
seen what ultimately happens, but Turkey is in a very tricky position
nowadays and needs to be careful that it doesn’t get trapped in the
Libyan quagmire.

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African Trade Pact Starts Operations With 54 Signatories @economics #AfCFTA
Africa


The members meeting at an African Union summit in Niger’s capital
Niamey agreed on mechanisms that will underpin the accord, including
determining the rules of origin, a digital payment system, an online
tool for listing products and tariffs and a monitoring system to deal
with non-trade barriers. The African Free Trade Agreement commits the
governments to greater economic integration, as the signatory states
begin a multiyear process to remove trade barriers including tariffs
on 90% of commodities. The duty-free movement of goods is expected to
boost regional trade, while also helping countries move away from
mainly exporting raw materials and build manufacturing capacity to
attract foreign investment. The agreement now includes 54 signatories,
after Benin and Nigeria joined the accord on Sunday during the summit.
In total, 27 countries including Kenya, Ghana, Gambia and Gabon have
ratified the pact that came into force in May 2019. Morocco said it
would ratify within days.

“Nigeria is Africa’s biggest economy and most populous country,”
Niger’s President Mahamadou Issoufou said in an interview from Niamey.
“Without Nigeria, the free trade zone would’ve been handicapped.”

Ghana will be home for the secretariat, or permanent office, of the
trade zone, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi -- chairman of the
African Union -- said in his closing statement. His nation along with
Ethiopia, Eswatini, Kenya, Senegal and Madagascar had bid to be the
host nation.

Ghana President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo said his country is ready
to give $10 million to help set up the office.

Trading with the slashed tariffs will start in July 2020 to give
member states time to adopt the framework and prepare their business
communities for the “emerging market,” said Albert Muchanga, the
African Union’s commissioner for trade and industry. “We haven’t yet
agreed on rules of origin and tariff confessions, but the framework we
have is enough to start trading on July 1, 2020.”

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Will Africa's historic Free Trade Agreement succeed? African Continental Free Trade Agreement #AfCFTA @AJENews @AJInsideStory @MartineDennis
Africa


Presenter: Martine Dennis
Guests:
Aly-Khan Satchu - CEO of Rich Management and an emerging markets economist
Stephen Yeboah - cofounder of Commodity Monitor
Olusegun Okubanjo - founder and managing partner of finance firm OBSIDIAN

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Africa


In particular, five trade measures could bring total gains worth 4.5
per cent of Africa’s GDP, or $134 billion a year – almost the amount
of all official development aid in 2017. The first is elimination of
all bilateral tariffs. Second, country-of-origin rules (needed to
determine the source of a product) should be kept simple, flexible,
and transparent. Third, all nontariff barriers on trade of goods and
services should be removed on a most-favored-nation basis. Fourth, the
World Trade Organisation’s Trade Facilitation Agreement should be
implemented to reduce the time it takes to cross borders and the
transaction costs associated with nontariff measures. Lastly, tariffs
and nontariff barriers applied to trade with other developing
countries should be reduced by half on a most-favored-nation basis.

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Ethiopia: Two intern'l telecom companies to join Ethiopian market by early 2020, State Minister of Finance @EyobTolina told local media today. @addisstandard
Africa


The gov't will retain 51% of the share while 49% share will be taken
by the winning companies.Dr. Eyob didn't name the foreign companies

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +9.20% 2019
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.2077

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 16.624

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +7.50% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -6.87% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -6.77% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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The Singita private reserve bordering the Serengeti in northern Tanzania boasts around 250 lion. That is the highest density in the world @David_Yarrow
Kenyan Economy


The Singita private reserve bordering the Serengeti in northern
Tanzania boasts around 250 lion. That is the highest density in the
world and some of the prides constitute some 20 to 30 lion together.
To run into a pride that big is to witness one of nature’s great
offerings.

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08-JUL-2019 :: In Memoriam Bob Collymore. @TheStarKenya
Kenyan Economy


Last week I attended My Eldest Daughter's Graduation in Durham, a
University that I had attended as well but not with as much
distinction as Aysha who graduated with First Class Honours and of
whom I am so proud. As I sat in The more than 1000 year old Cathedral
Church of Christ, Blessed Mary the Virgin and St Cuthbert of Durham
commonly known as Durham Cathedral and home of the Shrine of St
Cuthbert, It felt a little hallucinogenic. I wished My departed Mother
and my Father-in-Law both of whom had adored Aysha had been with me
and as I sat my mind also was thinking of another Friend Robert
Collymore Esquire; Bob's Mum always called him Robert. I had been with
Bob and with the Boys Club twice the preceding week and on the second
occasion on the Saturday afternoon he had turned to Bharat and said

''I want to be cremated, How do I go about it?''

And Bharat referenced the Upanishads and Bob said I have read the
Upanishads and I knew he had because some years ago he had read every
religious source document including the Koran and was in the habit of
asking me pointed questions about the Koran about which I was
singularly ill qualified to answer especially given that I was
probably quaffing his best whisky at the same time, to his chagrin but
about which he indulged me.

I said this to the Financial Times

“He was right on top of his business, finger on the pulse, but at the
same time he had this unhurried ability to make you feel that he had
all the time in the world to hear what you had to say,” Mr Satchu
said. “He saw it was about empowering Kenyans to join the 21st
century, about putting the ability to communicate, the ability to do
business, into their back pocket.”

The moments I savoured most were when Bob came back from a week-end in
Seattle with Bill Gates and I would say

''Bill Gates huh?''

And he would say ''Yes and they wanted to hear what I had to say.''

And for a moment it was like we were little Boys [him from Guyana and
I from Mombasa] and my experience was of course vicarious but those
moments were the best. And Do You know it all began many years ago and
in those days it was always about how Bob was filling ''some big
shoes'' And Bob would turn to Patrick and say what about that headline
about shoes [it was practically an every day thing] and Patrick would
say let me speak to the Mzungu. Under Bob Safaricom grew more than 6
fold in market capitalisation. It was a Golden Age for Shareholders
and the returns he served up were amongst the top percentile
world-wide. The markets emit the purest Signal. It was a privilege to
watch the Captain [He was the Captain of the Boys Club] navigate this
incredible Journey. [Today, Safaricom is valued at 3x Airtel Africa.
There is a ''Bob Collymore'' premium in that valuation, that's a fact]
 And he did it with empathy, panache and a very droll wit and because
of his posture it is easy to skip over the complexity around the
navigation. The Regulatory framework was oftentimes a minefield. He
managed Multiple Stakeholders and always kept his Foot on the
Accelerator. If there ever was a Golden Goose that laid Golden Eggs.
The Pivot to Financial Services was a big Deal.

However, most of all Bob believed in the Information Century and in
connecting every Kenyan. to that Information Superhighway. He once
said ''I spend my time think about my $1.00 a day Boda Boda offering''

I condole with Bob's Wife Wambui and his Family and in the spirit of
his syncretism will conclude with Kabir

BETWEEN the poles of the conscious and the unconscious, there has the
mind made a swing:
Thereon hang all beings and all worlds, and that swing never ceases its sway.
Millions of beings are there: the sun and the moon in their courses are there:
Millions of ages pass, and the swing goes on.
All swing!

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +6.67% 2019

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -5.95% 2019

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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