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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 09th of July 2019
 
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Macro Thoughts

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23% of all trading volume on the NYSE happens in the final half hour of the day. @ReformedBroker
Africa


90% of each day’s activity has to do with indexes, quants and
rules-based options strategies.

Home Thoughts

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"We cannot find the word 'dead' in any of the laws in Hong Kong" @tictoc
Law & Politics


#HongKongProtests organizers says it's not enough for leader Carrie
Lam to say the controversial #ExtraditionBill is dead #香港 #反送中

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17-JUN-2019 :: Essentially, he understood Hong Kong could not be "Xinjiang-ed"
Law & Politics


Make no mistake the Decider in this matter is Xi who has moved with
despatch. Essentially, he understood Hong Kong could not be
‘’Xinjiang-ed’’ Furthermore, being a ‘’Paramount Leader’’ is a
double-edged sword.

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US prepares largest arms sale to Taiwan under Trump @FastFT
Law & Politics


The US is preparing to go ahead with the largest arms sale to Taiwan
since president Donald Trump took office, underscoring Washington’s
much more robust support for the island nation as it faces a growing
threat from China.
The State Department has approved the sale of 108 Abrams tanks,
Stinger missiles and related equipment to Taipei, the Defence Security
Cooperation Agency, the Pentagon agency handling foreign arms sales,
said on Monday.
The move could test the Chinese government’s willingness to separate
its claim on Taiwan, which it calls a core interest and frequently
pushes with angry rhetoric and threats, from economic issues as
Beijing and Washington are planning to resume stalled negotiations in
their trade war.
The People’s Republic of China claims Taiwan as part of its territory
although it has never ruled it and threatens to invade if Taipei
resists unification indefinitely. The US is committed to help Taiwan
defend itself under the Taiwan Relations Act, a US law passed when
Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in
1971.
Beijing is already fuming over increased contacts between Washington
and Taipei under the Trump administration. On Thursday, Tsai Ing-wen,
Taiwan’s president, is due to land in New York for a two-day visit en
route a trip to diplomatic allies in the Caribbean. While the US has
traditionally granted Taiwan’s presidents stop-overs on its territory,
those have typically been very short and low-profile, and a two-day
stop is a first.

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The US Wants to Bring Back the Shah of Iran @MintPressNews
Law & Politics


The @CIA already has their man ready. They have been grooming him
since he was 17 years old

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13-MAY-2019 :: Iran is a geopolitical bleeding edge.
Law & Politics


if the US thinks that Tehran will just roll over, which appears to be
the case, then they are exhibiting the same deluded ideas that they
exhibited a day before the peacock Throne got plucked. Iran is a
geopolitical bleeding edge.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1210
Dollar Index 97.439
Japan Yen 108.85
Swiss Franc 0.9942
Pound 1.2481
Aussie 0.6948
India Rupee 68.668
South Korea Won 1180.685
Brazil Real 3.8028
Egypt Pound 16.6150
South Africa Rand 14.1898

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After a rough June the dollar $DXY now looks setup to make a new 2019 high to the 99 zone: @AdamMancini4 97.439
World Currencies


It spent the last year forming a bearish rising wedge - this broke
down in June and has now recovered as a fake break-down. The most
bullish setups are often failed bearish ones

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But why would anyone give @facebook a zero-interest deposit, when they could put their money in an even safer US Treasury bill, or in a money-market fund? @JosephEStiglitz @Columbia_Biz
International Trade


The real problem with our existing currencies and financial
arrangements, which serve as a means of payment as well as a store of
value, is the lack of competition among and regulation of the
companies that control transactions. As a result, consumers —
especially in the United States — pay a multiple of what payments
should cost, lining the pockets of Visa, Mastercard, American Express,
and banks with tens of billions of dollars of “rents” — excessive
profits — every year. The Durbin Amendment to the 2010 Dodd-Frank
financial-reform legislation curbs the excessive fees charged for
debit cards only to a very limited extent, and it did nothing about
the much bigger problem of excessive fees associated with credit
cards.

One might well ask: What is Facebook’s business model, and why do so
many seem so interested in its new venture? It could be that they want
a cut of the rents accruing to the platforms through which
transactions are processed. The fact that they believe that more
competition won’t drive down profits to near zero attests to the
corporate sector’s confidence in its ability to wield market power —
and in its political power to ensure that government won’t intervene
to curb these excesses.

But, in just a few short years, Facebook has earned a level of
distrust that took the banking sector much longer to achieve. Time and
again, Facebook’s leaders, faced with a choice between money and
honoring their promises, have grabbed the money. And nothing could be
more about money than creating a new currency. Only a fool would trust
Facebook with his or her financial wellbeing. But maybe that’s the
point: with so much personal data on some 2.4 billion monthly active
users, who knows better than Facebook just how many suckers are born
every minute?

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Crude Oil Chart INO 57.49
Commodities


A BP oil tanker didn't load a cargo of Iraqi crude as planned. Is now
sheltering not far from Saudi Arabia as oil major fears it may be a
target for Iran after last week's arrest of Grace 1 nr Gibraltar.
@KellyGilblom &  @helloimserene

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13-AUG-2018 :: In 1998, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher told the House of Commons: "There is no way in which one can buck the market."
Emerging Markets


President Erdogan is a shakespearean figure, he has slayed enemies
real and not real, his chest has been puffed up with pride, he even
rescued the Emir of Qatar but he has now met his match, that match
being the market

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Worth taking a step back on Turkish Lira to note that this currency has trend depreciated for the last 10 years @RobinBrooksIIF
Emerging Markets


Underlying issue is that global capital markets are unwilling to fund
growth that comes with large current account deficits, unless the Lira
gets cheaper and cheaper.

Frontier Markets

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In Sudan, protesters log victory but military still calls the shots @dwnews
Africa


No more violence, no more bloodshed. Instead, Sudanese military
leaders and civilian opposition protesters have agreed upon a
compromise negotiated by a mediator from the African Union, Mohamed
Hassan Lebatt, some six months after the start of mass demonstrations
and three months after Sudan's longtime ruler Omar al-Bashir was
overthrown.
The agreement is a road map for the political future of the country
and one that will, at least initially, avert the threat of further
escalation of the conflict. According to various sources, 140
demonstrators were killed by Sudanese security forces in two violent
confrontations in June.
For the second time since al-Bashir's ousting, demonstrators can claim
a partial victory based on the power sharing agreement. But this also
applies to Hemeti and the military, which will officially remain in a
position of full power for at least three years. With the help of its
strong financial allies in the Gulf region, the military will continue
to do everything in its power, even after the transition period, to
remain the ultimate power broker in Sudan.

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Airtel Africa to list in Nigeria on Tuesday - bourse Reuters
Africa


Airtel Africa shares will be listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange on
Tuesday, the bourse said, after it postponed the $4.4 billion listing
last week.
The secondary listing had been planned for July 5. However, the stock
exchange postponed it to ensure the telecoms company met its
requirements.
India’s Bharti Airtel two weeks ago offered shares in its African unit
via a London IPO and said it would dual list in Nigeria, its biggest
market in Africa.

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Ethiopia lifts power rationing for homes: state-affiliated media
Africa


NAIROBI (Reuters) - Ethiopia on Monday lifted power rationing for
homes and reduced loadshedding times for industries after water levels
at hydroelectric dams rose, state-affiliated Fana Broadcasting said.
Fana quoted Seleshi Bekele, the minister for water and electricity,
saying that water levels at the country’s Gibe 3 dam had increased,
prompting the changes.
Seleshi had said in May when announcing the rationing that the drop in
water levels at Gibe 3 dam had led to a deficit of 476 megawatts, more
than a third of the country’s electricity generation of 1,400 MW.

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Avo-can-do: How avocado farming is helping Tanzanian communities flourish @Independent
Africa


The mountain’s slopes in northern Tanzania have long been renowned for
quality arabica coffee beans, but here commercial coffee hasn’t been
produced in a long time.
Instead tens of thousands of pear-shaped avocados are ripening under
the equatorial sun.
Africado is one of Tanzania’s first commercial avocado farms and the
first to export its fruits abroad, including to the UK, the
Netherlands and France.
In 2018, Africado exported 3,000 tons of avocados to Europe – about
half of Tanzania’s production – including to the shelves of Tesco,
Sainsbury’s, Waitrose and Ocado in the UK.
As the former German farm is quickly reaching peak production, Parsons
has started a second avocado farm – doubling Africado’s production
capacity thanks to a £3.5m loan from the Finnish and Norwegian
development funds, AgDevCo, a company funded by the UK’s Department
for International Development that invests in African agribusiness.
“We should be able to reach more than 6,000 tons of exports,” Parsons says.

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06-MAY-2019 :: Safaricom absorbed the GOK related increases and turbo-charged consumption
Kenyan Economy


During this reporting period, the average rate per megabyte reduced by
42%. Safaricom absorbed the GOK related increases and turbo-charged
consumption. This is exactly the correct strategy. I recall a
conversation about the Take-Up of Smart Phones a number of years ago
and Bob Collymore told me then one of the issues is that if you have
not experienced a fast internet, you really don’t know what you are
missing. Millions of Kenyans are now hooked to the 21st century and
information Superhighway and its very difficult to dump a Ferrari for
a Pro Box once you have driven the Ferrari. This Curve will turn
‘’hockey stick’’ make no mistake about that.

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@SafaricomPLC offers a wide array of internet service and billing plans but its effective price per MB fell 42% in the year ended March, according to disclosures by @Vodacom. @RichTvAfrica
Kenyan Economy


Mobile data revenue grew 11.4% in the first half against a similar
period & 2.1% in the second half against a similar period, as a result
of tax absorption.
Active 4G devices surged 50% to 3.3 million.
30 day active customers customers using >100 MBs jumped 12% to 7.4 million.

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Swimming in the desert: an adventure along the shores of Lake Turkana @FTLifeArts
Kenyan Economy


For hours we pitched and swayed through the vastness where northern
Kenya fades into heat and stone. Somali ostriches stared, incredulous.
Few travellers take the road to Lake Turkana, and fewer still would
regard it as a family fishing trip, but then our hosts, the Carey
family, are an unusual crew. We were four adults with four boys who
already knew better than to ask if we were nearly there, rolling with
the Land Cruiser like sailors.

A day and a half’s drive north of Nairobi, where a sign says
“Loiyangalani 232km”, we had turned off the tarmac to follow a
lurching track westwards to Turkana, the “Jade Sea”, the world’s
largest desert lake. In two vehicles we were equipped for a 10-day
expedition around the remotest edge of Kenya, though we would need
more water and food. “Camel milk will save us!” said Steve Carey, our
leader. His two sons, Ffyn and Rafe, raised on a safari camp on the
Laikipia Plateau where we had begun and would end our adventure, had
been to Turkana before.

“And fish, Dada,” said Ffyn, 11.

“We need to catch dinner tomorrow, yes,” his father replied.

Our six-year-old was already a disciple of the bigger boys, entranced
by their bushcraft and the fearless way they sought out scorpions.
“What kinds of fish?”

“Nile perch, tilapia, whatever we can get,” Steve said.

“If the crocodiles don’t get us,” I put in.

My partner Rebecca rolled her eyes. Our friend and guide, Rod Tether,
laughed. For him this was a recce before starting to offer the route
as a new adventure through his company, Natural High Safaris. Improved
roads had made it viable, he said, though an excerpt he had sent me
from Kenya: A Natural History had formed my ominous imaginings of
Turkana: “Baking hot, shadeless and harsh, the haunt of gigantic
crocodiles, scorpions, red spitting cobras, abundant carpet vipers,
hyenas, lions and tough nomads . . . ” We beetled on, sustained by the
unlikely promise of swimming. “There is one place where the crocodiles
don’t go,” said Steve.

On the map, Turkana is a blue rip in the north-west corner of Kenya,
one of the hottest and harshest regions of the world. The lake runs
150 miles up to its main source, the Omo river on the Ethiopian side
of the border. There is no outflow — water leaves only through
evaporation. As you approach it, a distant blue line becomes a
burnished expanse, fading towards mountains 20 miles away on the
further shore. Until 1885 only the locals knew it was here. Their
descendants, the Turkana tribe, are gaunt pastoralists and fishermen.
Food is scarce. There have been showers but no real rain for months.

Unesco, which has listed the lake and surroundings among its World
Heritage sites, asserts that Turkana is shrinking and becoming more
saline as the Omo is choked by the Gilgel Gibe III Dam in Ethiopia.
Water levels fluctuate naturally so the influence of Gibe III is hard
to prove, but with another dam under construction and massive water
extraction in Ethiopia going ahead, the lake and its people are
imperilled. Kenya buys electricity generated in Ethiopia. Politicians
seem resigned to long-term hunger and drought in this region.

Reaching the shore, we found a fishing community at ease. A grave
elder took a camping fee and reminded Steve that we must burn only our
own firewood. He carried a staff and a wooden headrest, almost the
only possessions we saw among the Turkana people.

We ran into the alkaline and silky water, the children squealing
joyfully. There were crocodiles in the next bay but we followed the
example of fishermen who swam in from their boats, untroubled. They
hauled in a net jumping and threshing with silver. As yet the stocks
of tilapia, tiger fish and perch are still strong.

As the stars brightened, we lined up camp beds on the beach and
wriggled into our covers. “If it’s a wild night, Steve says that’s
normal,” Rod reported. “ ‘Wild’ could mean anything!”

“It means if it’s a howling gale, don’t worry,” said Steve. At first
we lay under a balmy and glittering spray of stars, near enough to the
equator for the Southern Cross to rise without its pointers and the
Plough without Polaris, as though there were no directions here but
the wind’s. Later the gale came, hot and dashed with blown sand. The
temperature had been around 40C but the lake cools faster than the
land, the imbalance creating torrents which rolled through all our
dreams.

We woke under a carmine sunrise feeling delightedly well. The children
swam, Rebecca practised perhaps the first yoga the crocodiles offshore
had ever witnessed and Rod, a devoted ornithologist, studied
pratincoles — angular birds that fly with flickering ease. Migrating
swallows busied the morning. After camel-milk porridge we drove up and
down dunes of shale and scrub, across cobbled stone, past herders
sheltering under thorn trees. We could smell small rainstorms that
stalked the horizons like djinns.

At the entrance to Sibiloi National Park, a sign welcomes you to the
“Cradle of Mankind”, but it feels as though you have found our
memorial. In the broken windows of the park office, in the herds of
livestock driven down to the lake, regardless of restrictions, and in
the absence of visitors (we saw one other vehicle in four days) there
is a toppling sensation of wild obscurity.

We erected our beds by a dry river and headed for the lake. Steve does
not massage expectations. “We’ll just potter down there” could mean
hours of walking or driving but we were learning that battering days
resolved into miraculous evenings. Beyond a splay of green where zebra
grazed and jackals hunted, the lake lay in immensity. Flamingoes
balanced under the towering sky. African skimmers patrolled a shore
where stints, stilts, godwits, plovers and storks were feeding. “I
could just stay here, right here,” Rod said, as the children tussled
with fishing rods and Steve cast his throw-net.

Space expanded like the giant storm clouds over Ethiopia, while time
withdrew, becoming as small and tentative as the figure of a shepherd
in the distance. On the opposite shore was discovered the skeleton of
a boy, Homo erectus, who lived here 1.6m years ago. Five human and
pre-human species have been found around the lake, along with the
fossils of sabre-toothed cats. Below the shaley hulk of Sibiloi
Mountain lie the petrified trunks of a forest. We explored there, our
boy riding on my shoulders down a path between coppery stone trunks
that were trees 7m years ago. In Turkana you have a child’s feeling
that all time exists at once. Our origins and our ends lie scattered
around the burning hills, between the water and the thunder where we
all

The boys spent the days fishing while we walked. One morning we came
across thousands of quelea, the world’s most numerous bird, fleeing in
dizzy gusts from a lanner falcon through pristine air. Led by Rod’s
17-year-old son Louis, the fishers landed one huge Nile perch,
monstrous-faced and delicious. At nightfall we aimed Rod’s telescope
at a huge shining moon. “I’ve never seen it so clear!” Rebecca cried.
We adults found we were often either wordless or exclaiming, as if
Turkana baffles language, such is its scale and silence, though the
children were a constant burble of games and schemes.

We sat around the fire, satellites above the only proof of modernity’s
existence, as young Rafe led giggling hunting parties up the riverbed,
flashing torches and firing catapults. In the absence of lions and
leopards, Sibiloi was an incomparable adventure for the boys. Our
Aubrey learned to study ant lions through a reversed pair of
binoculars, how to ride the roof of a Land Cruiser and that rain
spiders are not dangerous, though I screamed and ran from one in our
lake-water shower (they’re big).

There can be few lands more hostile than the territory we crossed,
driving eastward to the heat-strangled settlement of North Horr. In
flaying sun, ravens panted and swore. We pressed on to Kalacha oasis
on the edge of the Chalbi desert. The lines on the map are arbitrary
now, governance distant, the rule of the elements absolute. Women wear
Somali dress, their heads covered; men sputter from shade to shade on
motorbikes, and the evening brings bathers and camels to the Kalacha
springs, where water channels and an abandoned lodge are set about
with rattling palms. An inexplicably functioning swimming pool stands
in front of what was once the dining room. We bathed in the moonlight
while the boys caught and released nightjars. In the morning thousands
of sand grouse in chittering storms came to drink at the springs and
the sun rose like a dragon’s eye opening.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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