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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 16th of July 2019
 
Morning
Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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President Trump has been bashing the Federal Reserve Chairman and at least did not summarily dismiss him like Reccip Tayyip Erdogan summarily dismissed his Central Bank Chief a few short days ago but the net effect is the same,
Africa


2. The Populists are now in charge, Central Bankers are now doing the
bidding of their ''Leaders'' and Erdoganomics [where if Trump lays
sanctions on Turkey for the purchase of the Russian S-400 Missile
Defence System, the economy could crumble like a stale biscuit] might
well be the Precursor for where this all ends up. The ''Parrot'' is as
dead as it was in the Monte Python sketch

Mr. Praline: Never mind that, my lad. I wish to complain about this
parrot what I purchased not half an hour ago from this very boutique.
Owner: Oh yes, the, uh, the Norwegian Blue...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?
Mr. Praline: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead,
that's what's wrong with it!
Owner: No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting.
Mr. Praline: Look, matey, I know a dead parrot when I see one, and I'm
looking at one right now.
Owner: No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'! Remarkable bird, the
Norwegian Blue, idn'it, ay? Beautiful plumage!
Mr. Praline: The plumage don't enter into it. It's stone dead.
Owner: Nononono, no, no! 'E's resting!
Mr. Praline: All right then, if he's restin', I'll wake him up!
(shouting at the cage) 'Ello, Mister Polly Parrot! I've got a lovely
fresh cuttle fish for you if you show...
(owner hits the cage)
Owner: There, he moved!
Mr. Praline: No, he didn't, that was you hitting the cage!
Owner: I never!!
Mr. Praline: Yes, you did!
Owner: I never, never did anything...

Specifically, with respect to the United States, stoking up the Fire
with rate cuts is a very dangerous situation because according to my
calculations, the FED will need to be raising rates into the Election,
something that will turn Trump apoplectic I am sure.

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@StPaulsLondon St Paul's Cathedral
Africa


St Paul's Cathedral, London, is an Anglican cathedral, the seat of the
Bishop of London and the mother church of the Diocese of London. It
sits on Ludgate Hill at the highest point of the City of London and is
a Grade I listed building. Its dedication to Paul the Apostle dates
back to the original church on this site, founded in AD 604.[1] The
present cathedral, dating from the late 17th century, was designed in
the English Baroque style by Sir Christopher Wren.King Æthelred the
Unready was buried in the cathedral on his death in 1016; his tomb is
lost. The cathedral was burnt, with much of the city, in a fire in
1087, as recorded in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle.[7][page needed]

The present structure of St Peter upon Cornhill was designed by
Christopher Wren following the Great Fire of London in 1666. It stands
upon the highest point in the area of old Londinium, and medieval
legends tie it to the city's earliest Christian community. In 1995,
however, a large and ornate 5th-century building on Tower Hill was
excavated, which might have been the city's cathedral.[8][9]

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15-JUL-2019 :: The Taiwan Strait is a part of the Geopolitical Hot Spot of Straits which also includes the Strait of Hormuz
Law & Politics


Staying in that Part of the World Hu Xijin [who tweets Xi Jinping’s
thoughts in real time - a level of Freedom that no Chinese Journalist
or Media has] has been expressing his unhappiness about developments
in Taiwan.

‘’US-Taiwan ties breaching previous restrictions seems to be the
trend. China increasing military pressure on Taiwan to suppress
secessionists will also be a trend. These two trends will mutually
provoke and confront, becoming top risk that could trigger military
clash in TW Strait’’  @HuXijin_GT  tweeted.

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How MBS will extract the Kingdom from this unwinnable War is as much a mystery as is the Orb that appeared in the Painting Salvatori Mundi [a Painting that MBS bought for $550m] and in Trump's first visit to the Kingdom.
Law & Politics


We might yearn for President John Magufuli's more simple World. He
urged Tanzania's women to 'set [their] ovaries free' to  have more
babies to boost the economy

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1250
Dollar Index 96.976
Japan Yen 108.06
Swiss Franc 0.9852
Pound 1.2481
Aussie 0.7028
India Rupee 68.569
South Korea Won 1177.70
Brazil Real 3.7556
Egypt Pound 16.61
South Africa Rand 13.884

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Zimbabwe's #inflation rate rocketed to 176% in June. Nowhere else in the world, aside from Venezuela, are prices rising so fast, according to the IMF. @PaulWallace123
Africa


Still, this new number excludes effects of the reintroduction of the
Zim dollar, which may have slowed inflation. @TheTerminal

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Angola's Kwanza Plunges to Record Low on Black Market: Chart @markets
Africa


The Angolan kwanza hit 500 per dollar on the parallel market for the
first time on Thursday, according to kinguilahoje.com, a local
website. That’s about 31% weaker than the official rate, which is also
at a record low. The local currency is being driven down by a lack of
foreign exchange, which contributes to fuel shortages in Africa’s
second largest oil producer.

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Africa Isn't Being Re-Colonized @bopinion
Africa


There’s a big difference between military conquest and development
with overseas capital and know-how.

Colonialism involves domination through violence. The many small
Chinese entrepreneurs moving to Africa to set up shop do not have the
backing of a mighty state or an armada of warships. They are on their
own, and as author and development researcher Irene Yuan Sun reports
in her book, “The Next Factory of the World: How Chinese Investment Is
Reshaping Africa,” these independent capitalists often lose everything
they have to fires, crime or other local hazards.

What’s more, Sun’s research shows that these Chinese entrepreneurs
generally hire locals. Despite much-publicized cases of Chinese
companies importing Chinese workers to Africa, this is the exception
rather than the rule. Something like 95% of Chinese manufacturing
companies in Africa hire local workers, and 54% hire managers locally,
while 73% offer apprenticeships or professional training programs for
locals.

Skeptics may believe that Chinese factory owners’ profits, which can
run to more than 20% , represent exploitation by foreigners. But
because most Chinese entrepreneurs live in Africa near the factories
they run, much of that profit gets spent locally, and is thus pumped
back into the local economy. Furthermore, although wages are low and
factory conditions are often harsh or dangerous -- sadly typical for
countries in the early stages of industrialization -- a profit margin
of 20% still means that the bulk of the businesses’ expenditures are
flowing to workers and suppliers, many of whom are African.

The profits reaped by these expatriate Chinese entrepreneurs don't
represent colonialist resource exploitation. Instead, they represent
the win-win nature of industrialization. Unlike economies based on
natural resources, industrial economies are not zero-sum games -- they
represent the creation of wealth through human ingenuity and labor.
Just because Chinese factory owners are winning doesn’t mean African
workers are losing.

Of course, in the long run, Africans should and will become owners and
capitalists themselves. African managers in Chinese factories will
learn the tricks of the trade and then strike out on their own. But
for now, foreign investment in African manufacturing looks similar to
the early stages of industrialization in China itself. Under Deng
Xiaoping and his successors, China threw open the doors to foreign
capital, offering itself as a low-cost production platform for
foreigners. That was only the first stage, however, as Chinese workers
learned from the foreigners and eventually moved up the value chain.

So private Chinese investment in Africa isn't a form of colonialism,
and the Japanese, German, and Indian multinationals now setting up
shop in Africa aren't colonizers. This is how development works.

But there is one type of Chinese involvement in Africa that does
threaten to become something akin to colonialism -- Chinese government
infrastructure loans. Chinese government banks are lending African
governments large amounts of money to build roads, bridges, ports and
so on, often secretly. Although some of that infrastructure will be
beneficial for African countries, some projects will not recoup their
costs. When that happens, small African countries will be left holding
the bag, owing money to the mighty Chinese government. China will then
hold substantial leverage over its African debtors.

If that’s not old-style colonialism, it’s too close for comfort.
African governments should be wary of Chinese state-owned banks
offering lavish loans. Instead, they should focus on soliciting
private investment in manufacturing industries, while providing
infrastructure, education and other public goods on their own. This
strategy will ensure that Africa’s road to industrialization is as
rapid and smooth as possible without the taint of colonialism.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +9.10% 2019
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.8823

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 16.5896

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +4.54% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -9.83% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -7.78% 2019

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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.@MoodysInvSvc's - East African countries' infrastructure spending will support growth but weigh on fiscal strength
Africa


Focus on infrastructure spending will support economic expansion
But recurring fiscal deficits will constrain sovereign
creditworthiness, aggravating already deteriorating debt metrics
Although East African governments' pro-growth fiscal policies will
support economic expansion over the next two years, recurring fiscal
deficits will constrain their creditworthiness at a time when they
have less capacity to absorb future balance sheet shocks, Moody's
Investors Service said in a report today. In June, each of the five
Moody's-rated East African sovereigns - Kenya, Ethiopia, Rwanda,
Tanzania and Uganda - presented budgets for the next fiscal year, some
of which included large infrastructure spending plans that will lead
to continued fiscal deficits.

"In the next two years, we expect that fiscal deficits will be below
those necessary to stabilize debt in all East African countries except
for Uganda, where the debt burden is expected to rise, compared to
declining or broadly stable debt burdens in the rest of the region,"
said Lucie Villa, a Moody's Vice President – Senior Credit Officer and
the report's co-author.

"However, risks to the medium-term fiscal outlook persist and stem
from fiscal slippage or interest rate increases beyond our forecasts,
as well as economic and socio-political shocks that would likely
result in a deterioration in government fiscal positions."

Although fiscal deficits over the past five years have already
contributed to weaker debt metrics, weighing on Moody's assessment of
the countries' fiscal strength, Tanzania and Ethiopia have been
posting smaller deficits than regional peers, leading to a more
moderate rise in their debt levels.

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@vivendi's Canal+ acquires African film studio ROK @ReutersAfrica
Africa


French pay-TV group Canal+ has acquired African film and television
studio ROK, marking the first international acquisition in Nigeria’s
film industry, popularly known as Nollywood.
Lagos-based ROK, which announced the deal on Monday, owns a large
library of films and animation series in Nigeria and produces movies
and TV series for distribution platforms.
Nollywood is one of the world’s biggest film production hubs and
Canal+, owned by Vivendi, aims to expand in Africa as stiff
competition from streaming services such as Netflix and Amazon has
caused the group to lose subscribers in France.
With more Africans buying TVs - and streaming services not widely
accessible due to relatively high data costs - the continent is
fertile ground for satellite pay-TV companies to provide original
content and generate customer loyalty.
“ROK will produce thousands more hours of Nollywood content to deliver
movies and original TV series for Canal+ Group’s audiences,” ROK said
in a statement. It did not say how much Canal+ had paid for the
company.
Under the deal, Canal+ acquired ROK’s production, content distribution
and publishing channels, from IROKO Ltd, Africa’s digital content
distributor for Nigerian films. ROK founder Mary Njoku will continue
as general director of ROK Productions.
ROK will produce Nollywood content for Canal+ group’s French-speaking
African audience, to be distributed via IROKO’s subscription video on
demand app.
Last year, Vivendi said that Canal+ aimed to add 1.5 million African
subscribers by 2020 to bring the total to about 5 million, up from 1
million five years ago.
Rights to European and African soccer have long been a draw in Africa
and Canal+ has invested heavily in locally produced content.
IROKO incubated ROK in 2013 and has produced over 540 films and 25
original TV series in Africa. It said ROK reaches 15 million
subscribers on satellite TV services on the continent.

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Ebola virus reaches Congolese city of Goma
Africa


The Ebola virus has reached the Congolese city of Goma, home to 2
million people and a transport hub for central Africa, for the first
time since an epidemic began in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
nearly a year ago.
The DRC health ministry said a man who had arrived in the regional
centre on Sunday had been quickly transported to an Ebola treatment
centre.
Authorities said they had tracked down all the passengers on the bus
the man had taken from Butembo, one of the towns hardest hit by the
disease.
“Because of the speed with which the patient was identified and
isolated, and the identification of all the other bus passengers
coming from Butembo, the risk of it spreading in the rest of the city
of Goma is small,” the health ministry said.
The virus has killed more than 1,600 people in the DRC and two others
who returned home across the border to neighbouring Uganda. About 700
people have recovered from infections.
The 46-year-old did not show signs of illness at three medical
checkpoints on the 18-hour journey, though he gave different names,
indicating a desire to hide his identity, officials said. He has now
been sent back to Butembo for further care.
While in Butembo, the pastor held regular services in seven churches,
during which he laid his hands on worshippers, including people who
were ill, the health ministry said.

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Kenya's single largest external creditor is #China, which accounts for about 23% of Kenya's external debt stock.@africa_conf
Kenyan Economy


 But most of Kenya’s foreign debt is still owed to multilateral donors
and a few first-world states – notably #Japan, #France and #Germany.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +6.07% 2019

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -5.30% 2019

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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