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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 30th of August 2019
 
Afternoon,
Africa


The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

Macro Thoughts

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27-MAY-2019 :: President Trump is highly tuned to the markets and in fact something of a c21st artiste
Africa


President Trump is highly tuned to the markets and in fact something
of a c21st artiste. His positive ‘’Trade War’’ tweets are timed around
the US Market hours and designed to soothe, massage and finesse US
asset prices and he turns more negative in Chinese trading hours.

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-->> always thought provoking Eric Cantona @ODDSbible
Africa


🗣 "Soon science will not only be able to slow down the ageing of
cells, it will fix cells and so we will become eternal. Only
accidents, crimes, wars will kill us but unfortunately crimes and wars
will multiply. I love football. Thank you."

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Scientists on Wednesday announced the landmark discovery in Ethiopia of a nearly complete skull of an early human ancestor that lived 3.8 million years ago @Reuters
Africa


The fossil dubbed MRD, which provides insight into a pivotal period
for the evolutionary lineage that eventually led to modern humans,
belongs to the species Australopithecus anamensis, which first
appeared roughly 4.2 million years ago.
This species is considered the direct ancestor of Australopithecus
afarensis, the species best known from the famous partial skeleton
nicknamed Lucy unearthed in 1974 about 35 miles (56 km) from of the
site in the Afar region of Ethiopia where the MRD skull was found in
2016. Lucy dates from about 3.2 million years ago.
MRD and Lucy together stand as watershed fossils for illuminating
early human ancestors.
“This is once-in-a-lifetime discovery, and there was nothing more
exciting than that,” said Cleveland Museum of Natural History
paleoanthropologist Yohannes Haile-Selassie, a leader of the research
published in the journal Nature.
“We are talking about the most complete cranium of an early human
ancestor ever found in the fossil record older than 3 million years.”
It hails from a time between 4.1 million and 3.6 million years ago
when early human ancestor fossils are exceptionally scarce.
The evolutionary lineage that led to people split from the chimpanzee
lineage roughly 6 million to 7 million years ago, gradually acquiring
traits such as bipedal walking, flatter face and increased brain size
through a succession of species. Our species, Homo sapiens, appeared
roughly 300,000 years ago in Africa.
In scientific parlance, MRD’s species was a hominin, a group
consisting of modern humans, extinct human species and immediate
ancestors including various Australopithecus species. MRD’s skull
shows a combination of primitive traits seen in older species as well
as characteristics resembling those in later hominins.
“What we’re seeing here is that our evolution was not entirely
characterized by a linear transformation by one species to another,”
Haile-Selassie added.

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Russia is almost certainly testing a dangerous new nuclear weapon @MSN
Law & Politics


Since a radioactive explosion in Nyonoksa, Russia, this month, NATO
has been watching closely, and, according to sources in the alliance,
quickly concluded it was part of a reckless test to develop an
experimental new nuclear-powered cruise missile.

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27-MAY-2019 :: In one fell swoop, President Xi Jinping was President for Life. President Xi is on a Pedestal and is faced with the Strong Man Conundrum
Law & Politics


In China, however, There is only one Decider that Decider was
pronounced as much by Xinhua in a historical announcement in March
2018

The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China “proposed to
remove the expression that ‘the president and vice-president of the
People’s Republic of China shall serve no more than two consecutive
terms’ from the country’s constitution.”  In one fell swoop, President
Xi Jinping was President for Life. President Xi is on a Pedestal and
is faced with the Strong Man Conundrum. The Political Brand will not
permit a retreat let alone a Surrender.
Friedrich Wu, a professor at Nanyang Technological University in
Singapore sums up the feelings of many when he describes them as “a
list of surrender demands for China to acquiesce to”. [FT]

“If there is a decoupling between the two economies, so be it. The
Chinese people can endure more pain than the spoiled and hubristic
Americans.”

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26-AUG-2019 :: China Strikes at Trump
Law & Politics


Of course, the level of Chinese retaliation was the message and of the
ilk of the Shoe thrower in Iraq all those years ago.

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Exclusive: Amid crisis, China rejected Hong Kong plan to appease protesters - sources @Reuters
Law & Politics


The Chinese central government rejected Lam’s proposal to withdraw the
extradition bill and ordered her not to yield to any of the
protesters’ other demands at that time, three individuals with direct
knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
China’s role in directing how Hong Kong handles the protests has been
widely assumed, supported by stern statements in state media about the
country’s sovereignty and protesters’ “radical” goals.
Beijing’s rebuff of Lam’s proposal for how to resolve the crisis,
detailed for the first time by Reuters, represents concrete evidence
of the extent to which China is controlling the Hong Kong government’s
response to the unrest.
The Chinese central government has condemned the protests and accused
foreign powers of fuelling unrest. The Foreign Ministry has repeatedly
warned other nations against interfering in Hong Kong, reiterating
that the situation there is an “internal affair.”
Lam’s report on the tumult, made before an Aug. 7 meeting in Shenzhen
about Hong Kong led by senior Chinese officials that examined the
feasibility of the five demands of the protesters, analyzing how
conceding to some of these might quiet things down, the individuals
with direct knowledge said.
Beijing told Lam not to withdraw the bill, or to launch an inquiry
into the tumult, including allegations of excessive police force,
according to the senior government official.
Another of the three individuals, who has close ties with senior
officials in Hong Kong and also declined to be identified, confirmed
the Hong Kong government had submitted the report.
“They said no” to all five demands, said the source. “The situation is
far more complicated than most people realize.”
The third individual, a senior Chinese official, said that the Hong
Kong government had submitted the report to the Central Co-ordination
Group for Hong Kong and Macau Affairs, a high-level group led by
Politburo Standing Committee member Han Zheng, and that President Xi
Jinping was aware of it.
The official confirmed that Beijing had rejected giving in to any of
the protesters’ demands and wanted Lam’s administration to take more
initiative.
In a statement responding to Reuters, Lam’s office said her government
had made efforts to address protesters’ concerns, but did not comment
directly on whether it had made such a proposal to Beijing, or
received instructions.
Ip Kwok-him, a senior pro-Beijing politician who sits on Hong Kong’s
elite Executive Council, which advises senior officials, including
Lam, told Reuters that “if the central government won’t allow
something, you can’t do it.” Ip did not know about the proposal to
withdraw the bill.
A senior businessman who attended the Shenzhen meeting and has met
with Lam recently said “her hands are tied” and Beijing wouldn’t let
her withdraw the bill. The businessman spoke on condition of anonymity
because of the sensitivity of the matter.
At the Shenzhen meeting, Zhang Xiaoming, the head of the HKMAO, said
in televised public remarks that if the turmoil persisted, “the
central government must intervene.”
Since then, there have been signs of Beijing taking a harder line.
For instance, officials have likened some protests to “terrorism,”
Chinese paramilitary police have conducted drills near the border,
several Hong Kong companies have been pressured to suspend staff
supporting the protests, and security personnel have searched the
digital devices of some travelers entering China.
On Friday, Joshua Wong, a prominent democracy activist, was arrested,
according to his political party, Demosisto.

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Trump outreach to Iran cause for alarm in Israel Asia Times
Law & Politics


Although Trump did not meet directly with Zarif, Macron mediated
between the two. The change in Trump’s statements was dramatic and
immediate. The US leader indicated a willingness to meet with Rouhani.
Trump also said he was “not looking for leadership change” in Iran and
evinced he was “willing to help relieve Iran’s economic troubles” by
providing them with a letter of credit – an about-face from the
espoused policies of the administration

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13-MAY-2019 :: Iran is at the Hunter S. Thompson[Ian] edge. "There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over
Law & Politics


What we know is this: Iran is at the Hunter S. Thompson[Ian] edge.
“There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who
really know where it is are the ones who have gone over''
if the US thinks that Tehran will just roll over, which appears to be
the case, then they are exhibiting the same deluded ideas that they
exhibited a day before the peacock Throne got plucked. Iran is a
geopolitical bleeding edge.

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"All these people who are wailing and gnashing of teeth know that there are two ways of doing what they want to do," @Jacob_Rees_Mogg told the @BBCNews
Law & Politics


“One, is to change the government and the other is to change the law.
If they do either of those that will then have an effect.
“If they don’t have either the courage or the gumption to do either of
those then we will leave on the 31st of October in accordance with the
referendum result.”
After years of tortuous negotiations and a series of political crises
since the United Kingdom voted 52% to 48% to leave the EU in the 2016
referendum, Brexit remains up in the air. Options range from an
acrimonious divorce on Oct. 31 and an election to an amicable exit or
even another referendum.
In effect, Johnson’s order to suspend parliament forces opponents of a
no-deal Brexit in parliament to show their hand and act in as few as
four days sitting next month. Parliament returns from its summer
holiday on Sept. 3.
“Boris is obviously preparing for an election,” said Conservative
lawmaker Ken Clarke.
“He’s decided that he wants a people versus foreigners election, and a
people versus parliament election, and he’s blustering away with
‘making this country the greatest country in the world’, patriotism,
Donald Trump-style stuff.”
Britain’s opposition Labour Party will seek an emergency debate on
Brexit next week, the party’s trade spokesman Barry Gardiner said,
outlining plans which could give them an opening to pass legislation
to block a no-deal Brexit.
“On Monday, we will introduce what is known as a Standing Order
Section 24 Motion and that would be to try and have an emergency
debate,” Gardiner told Sky News.

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05-AUG-2019 :: @10DowningStreet @BorisJohnson has elected to take quite properly an "Impossible is nothing" and "can-do" political posture but the bottom line is can he swing it?
Law & Politics



‘Boris isn’t bluffing. Every action, every appointment, every word
since he entered Number 10 signals the same thing: Britain is leaving
the EU on October 31’ said the Telegraph’s Daniel J Hannan.

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05-AUG-2019 :: I could not help wondering if this Sterling moment is precisely like it was in 1992, a no brainer.
Law & Politics


if he can swing it then he has to face down the “whispering death”
[Michael Holding who was thus nick- named because He was exactly that
when he opened the bowling for the West Indies] that will be the
foreign exchange markets

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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice
International Trade


If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse. Or
to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the Eagles Hotel
California:

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before

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Why would anyone in their right mind buy a neg yld 50yr bond? @biancoresearch
International Trade


Because its price (orange) is up 36% YTD!
July 24 is the day its yld went neg, a month ago.  Why own it then?
Because it's up 18% in a month!!
This is what happens with neg ylds, booming prices.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1040
Dollar Index 98.546
Japan Yen 106.41
Swiss Franc 0.9885
Pound 1.2170
Aussie 0.6721
India Rupee 71.5485
South Korea Won 1209.60
Brazil Real 4.16975
Egypt Pound 16.5570
South Africa Rand 15.2666

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I wrote last week about the China Emerging and Frontier markets loop Phenomenon which has been super positive for more than 2 decades and is now in a Major Trend Change and has turned negative.
Emerging Markets


I would be adding to short positions in the Australia Dollar [a Global
Trade Proxy and Global Trade is slowing] and the South African Rand.
The Periphery will get smashed as we are seeing it unfold in Lusaka.

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The Eastern DR Congo is a wonder of beauty and intensity. @itombwe
Africa


From the glaciers of the Mountains of the Moon, tropical lakes and
rivers are interspersed between volcanos and rain forests-wildlife
whose diversity extends far beyond imagination.The Virunga,
Kahuzi-Biega and the Itombwe

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Power play in Harare @Africa_Conf
Africa


The main opposition party wants an interim power-sharing deal. The
government accuses it of using mass protests as a bargaining chip
Through the last 17 years of his rule, former President Robert Mugabe
consistently dismissed claims of human rights violations as part of a
Western plot to bring about 'regime change'. Now, however, the
opposition Movement for Democratic Change under Nelson Chamisa is
making no bones about its desire for just that.
It wants to remove the Emmerson Mnangagwa administration through mass
protests on the streets rather than a general election or other
constitutional means.
The strategy owes much to the Kenyan former opposition leader Raila
Odinga. He labelled as fraudulent the first Kenyan election in 2017,
which was annulled by the courts, and boycotted the second (AC Vol 59
No 14, Hanging on a handshake).
After prolonged unrest, and continual accusations against the Jubilee
government, President Uhuru Kenyatta made the famous 'handshake' with
his old adversary, and Odinga and his supporters were admitted to key
positions in government.
Sources in Chamisa's entourage admit taking advice from Odinga's
advisers on tactics.
Chamisa also claims he won the July 2018 elections 'resoundingly' but
was deprived of victory by electoral fraud (AC Vol 59 No 16, A
disputed crown for the crocodile).
However, Chamisa has been unable to produce hard evidence to prove
that the MDC polled more strongly than the Zimbabwe African National
Union–Patriotic Front.
The ruling party may have rampantly abused state resources to hang on
to power, but Chamisa's theories about the vote numbers lack proof.
Yet, at every opportunity, Chamisa says Mnangagwa's incumbency is
illegitimate, echoing Odinga's strategy of 'declaring victory in the
polls early and to go on declaring it', Harare pundits are saying.
The MDC calls the current political situation an 'illegitimacy
crisis'. This, the MDC maintains, is causing the country's current
economic meltdown. Zimbabwe's problems are political and not economic,
they say.
The MDC's proposed cure is set out in its Roadmap to Economic
Recovery, Legitimacy, Openness and Democracy (RELOAD).
The right medicine, according to the document, is a 'national
dialogue' under a neutral mediator, where Mnangagwa's illegitimacy is
the first item on the agenda.
The economic details of potential recovery, however, are considered thin.
The 'illegitimacy and stolen elections' are to be resolved by the
formation of a 'National Transitional Mechanism' to run the country
for two years, the MDC says.
During this time the governing authority will sort out the politics,
reform electoral laws and steer the country to a free and fair
election, which, when held under such conditions where the popular
will is allowed to prevail, is likely to deliver victory for the MDC.
The 16 August march in Harare was called by the MDC as the first in a
series of rolling protests and demonstrations to bring about a
'people's government', again mirroring Odinga's mock inauguration and
other mass protests (AC Vol 59 No 3, Diplomats and journalists drawn
into election row).
To some protesters in Harare, however, this looked like an attempt to
use the action as a way of bolstering the MDC's negotiating position
in any bargaining with ZANU-PF.
Many demonstrators said they were protesting against very real
economic hardships and Mnangagwa's failure to bring about the economic
recovery he promised.
By linking the economic crisis with illegitimacy, the MDC is hoping to
use to protests to ride into government, and some cynics say it has no
wish to see any kind of economic recovery until public anger and the
severity of the country's economic difficulties force Mnangagwa to
accommodate Chamisa in a transitional regime.
Tendai Biti, the Finance Minister under the previous unity government,
which ran from 2009 to 2013, and now one of three MDC Alliance
vice-presidents, has been quoted as saying that his party has ways of
making sure that the Mnangagwa government 'does not get a cent' of the
more than US$2 billion required to clear debt arrears to key
international financial institutions and open the way for fresh
funding essential to lift Zimbabwe from the deep economic hole dug by
Mugabe.
Public demonstrations, and the predictably repressive response by the
country's security sector, are a sure way to scupper international
assistance, oppositionists believe.
While the government claimed that the march was timed to embarrass
Mnangagwa at the Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit
the following day, it is much more likely to have been directed at the
G7 meeting in Biarritz on 24-26 August.
The G7 had planned to arrange a $2.3bn bailout for Zimbabwe, which
would settle its arrears with the World Bank, African Development Bank
and the European Investment Bank.
They would then immediately release $1bn in a fresh loan (AC Vol 60 No
11, Austerity first). The quid pro quo, insiders say, was for the
Mnangagwa government to show good will on opening Zimbabwe's
democratic space.
The bailout was not discussed at Biarritz, we hear, probably because
of Harare's failure to follow through on this. A loosening of
repressive legislation was mooted in June last year, when the idea of
power-sharing between the MDC and ZANU-PF also arose (AC Vol 59 No 14,
In the mood for change).
The G7 had identified two pieces of repressive legislation for reform
or removal as part of the 'opening'. The first was the Access to
Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA), which Harare
sources say is wrongly blamed – that honour goes to the Broadcasting
Services Act – for Zimbabwe's closed media environment which boasts a
single TV station and a single voice in the political content of the
few radio stations.
The second was the Public Order and Security Act (POSA). The latter is
used to suppress demonstrations.
A Freedom of Information Bill replacing AIPPA was gazetted on 5 July
but has yet to be considered by parliament. The national assembly sat
until after 4 a.m. on 9 August to push the substitute for POSA, the
Maintenance of the Peace and Order Bill (MOPA), through the house, and
Mnangagwa called the Senate back from recess to approve the Bill on 15
August.
The plan seems to have been to demonstrate reforming intent ahead of
the G7 summit.
Wary of the possibility of mass protests à la Khartoum and Algiers,
however, the government was reluctant to give up some of POSA's more
repressive clauses.
The POSA clause allowing demonstrations to be banned through a
'prohibition' order by the police, which was used to prevent the 16
August demonstration and those planned for other cities, has been
retained in MOPA.
So long as mass protests remain a possibility, the clause will remain,
government sources say.
The government also feels that because the United States, the least
willing to compromise with Mnangagwa of the G7 countries, is taking
over the chairmanship of the international club, there is no
percentage in meeting the its conditions.
For Chamisa, the prospects for harnessing popular anger appear good.
In about three weeks, Zimbabwe's only reliable source of power,
hydropower from the Kariba Dam, is likely to dry up after weak rain in
the catchment areas.
The limited imports from Mozambique's Cahora Bassa hydro and South
Africa's troubled Eskom will not stop the 18-hour blackouts returning.
The wheels of industry, mills of the mines and irrigation for
agriculture could stop, and the economy may well grind to a halt – all
conditions which could help Chamisa's agenda.

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21-JAN-2019 :: The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between high Inflation and revolutionary conditions, Zimbabwe is a classic example
Africa


I have been reading Yuval Noah Harari and in his best-seller he says
this about money;
“Money is accordingly a system of mutual trust, and not just any
system of mutual trust: money is the most universal and most effi-
cient system of mutual trust ever devised.”

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The opposition leaders' campaign to annul the May elections depends on getting more angry people on the streets @Africa_Conf
Africa


Three months after the highly contested and narrowly won elections,
politicians, civil society and even religious leaders are divided
between pro-opposition and pro-government factions. The issue is
unlikely to be settled until the Constitutional Court delivers a
ruling on the 21 May polls, which the opposition claims were rigged.

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Juba's payday loan habit @Africa_Conf
Africa


The government’s fondness for pre-selling oil greases the wheels but
hurts the exchequer. It’s an addiction that will be hard to break.
SouthSudan's govt earned more than $2bn between 2013 and 2018 by
pre-financing at least 32m barrels of crude oil. The resulting debt
burden could threaten the implementation of the Revitalised Peace
Agreement signed last September.

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Zambian opposition leader arrested, accused of defaming president - lawyer @ReutersAfrica
Africa


Police arrested the leader of a small Zambian opposition party on
Wednesday on charges of defaming President Edgar Lungu by describing
the head of state as a dog, his lawyer said.
Chishimba Kambwili, leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC),
defended his comments as he was led by officers, telling journalists
that his statement in an online video had been misunderstood.
Kambwili and other opposition politicians have accused Lungu of
cracking down on dissent - a charge regularly dismissed by the
government which says it protects free speech.
The arrest came two days after the state Registrar of Societies
cancelled the registration of the NDC - saying its constitution was
flawed and effectively shutting it down. Kambwili has said he will
challenge the decision in court.
“The arrest is a clear sign of intimidation, coming shortly after the
de-registration of Kambwili’s party. The ruling party seems to be very
uncomfortable with Kambwili,” Lee Habasonda, a political analyst at
the University of Zambia told Reuters.
Kambwili’s party broke away from the Lungu’s Patriotic Front (PF) in
2016 and took its first seat in parliamentary elections in April in
the government’s copper-producing heartland.
“The allegation is that he made references to dogs from Chawama” in
the video, his lawyer Christopher Mundia told Reuters, referring to a
township where Lungu previously lived and served as member of
parliament.
“The police have drawn inference that he was referring to the head of
state as a dog from Chawama and that is why they have decided to
charge him with defamation of the president,” Mundia said.
Kambwili told journalists his statement in the local Bemba language
has been misunderstood, but did not explain what he meant.
Police released a statement saying Kambwili had been detained, but did
not go into further details. There was no immediate comment from the
government.

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"We will be the first entity anywhere in the world to hold an initial public offering of security tokens," said Edmond Tuohy, chief executive officer of MERJ, which runs the Seychelles exchange.
Africa



Tokenized stocks are digital assets representing shares in a company.
The use of blockchain technology, a decentralized ledger that
underpins cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, allows the easy
transfer of these assets between buyers and sellers, potentially
reducing costs. Because they are classified as securities, regulatory
hurdles have so far hindered bourses from launching such products.

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Barclays Bank Kenya reports H1 2019 EPS +2.899% Earnings here
Africa


Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           11.00
Total Shares Issued:          5431536000.00
Market Capitalization:        59,746,896,000
EPS:             1.37
PE:                 8.029

Barclays Bank of Kenya H1 2019 results through 30th June2019 vs. 30th June 2018
H1 Kenya Government and other securities held for dealing purposes
32.861890b vs. 22.985975b +42.965%
H1 Kenya Government Securities Available for Sale 81.185169b vs.
70.342919b +15.413%
H1 Loans and advances to customers (net) 186.655050b vs. 176.115166b +5.985%
H1 Total assets 353.836906b vs. 316.628855b +11.751%
H1 Customers’ deposits 229.669376b vs. 216.808933b +5.932%
H1 Total shareholders’ funds 42.387341b vs. 40.806896b +3.873%
H1 Total Interest income 15.183007 vs. 14.138810b +7.385%
H1 Total interest expenses [4.150546b] vs. [3.172289b] +30.838%
H1 Net Interest income 11.032461b vs. 10.966521b +0.601%
H1 FX trading income 1.707565b vs. 1.641627b +4.017%
H1 Total non-interest income 5.286657b vs. 4.696931b +12.556%
H1 Total operating income 16.319118b vs. 15.663452b +4.186%
H1 Loan loss provision [1.641335b] vs. [1.716942b] -4.404%
H1 Total operating expenses [10.045547b] vs. [10.377635b] -3.200%
H1 Profit before tax and exceptional items 6.273571b vs. 5.285817b +18.687%
H1 Exceptional items [560.810m] vs.  –
H1 Profit after tax and exceptional items 3.877714b vs. 3.762069b +3.074%
EPS 0.71 vs. 0.69 +2.899%
Interim dividend per share 0.20 vs. 0.20 –
Total NPL and Advances 12.676816b vs. 10.931660b +15.964%
Net NPL and Advances 2.173966b vs. 3.590426b -39.451%
Liquidity ratio 38.7% vs. 38.3% +0.400%

Conclusions


Exceptional Item [560.81m] crimped what was a +18.687% performance

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.@totalkenya reports H1 2019 EPS +7.317% Earnings here
Africa



Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           27.95
Total Shares Issued:          175028706.00
Market Capitalization:        4,892,052,333
EPS:             3.67
PE:                 7.616

Leading multinational energy company.

Total Kenya PLC HY 2019 results through 30th June 2019 vs. 30th June 2018
HY Gross sales 81.257592b vs. 57.681983b +40.872%
HY Indirect taxes and duties [16.050463b] vs. [13.651320b] +17.574%
HY Net sales 65.207129b vs. 44.030663b +48.095%
HY Cost of sales [61.062220b] vs. [39.953603b] +52.833%
HY Gross profit 4.144909b vs. 4.077060b +1.664%
HY Other income 532.506m vs. 357.345m +49.017%
HY Operating expenses [3.031018b] vs. [2.977999b] +1.780%
HY Finance income(net) 127.635m vs. 125.873m +1.400%
HY Net foreign exchange loss [102.299m] vs. 33.596m -204.498%
HY Profit before tax 1.671733b vs. 1.615875b +3.457%
HY Profit for the year 1.108400b vs. 1.035421b +7.048%
Basic and diluted 1.76 vs. 1.64 +7.317%
Total Assets 33.272360b
Total Equity 22.956038b
Cash and cash equivalents 280.666m vs. [2.492499b] +111.260%


COMMENTARY ON THE 2019 UNAUDITED HALF YEAR RESULTS
The Total Kenya PLC Board of Directors is pleased to announce the
unaudited half year results for the period ended 30th June 2019.
GROWTH IN REVENUES AND PROFITABILITY
The Company realized a 7% growth in profit after tax in the first half
of 2019 compared to a similar period In 2018. This performance was
achieved through positive contribution from increase in sales volumes,
diversification revenues and prudent management of operating expenses.
The Increase in Gross Turnover by 41% resulted majorly from bulk sales
in the Open Tender System (OTS). Gross Margins increased by Kes 68
million.
Other Income increased significantly by 49% in 2019 compared to 2018
contributed by diversification of services in the Company's retail
outlets.
The Company has continued to invest in convenient stores Bonjour Shops
l, Car wash, Total Quartz Auto Service Centres and partnerships with
third parties in provision of services to our esteemed customers
making our retail outlets one stop shops.
Operating expenses have been controlled within inflation. Net finance
income of Kes 128 million resulted from positive cash position in
Kenya shillings emanating from better working capital management.
The foreign exchange loss of Kes102 million is attributable to the
valuation of liabilities in foreign currency Impacted by the
depreciation of the Shilling against the US Dollar in the period.
Profit before tax was above 2018 by Kes 55 million. The Company's
Statement of Financial Position remained strong with net assets
increasing from Kes 22.7 billion in 2018 to Kes 23.0 billion.
The Management of the Company will continue to focus on providing
innovative solutions to enhance customer experience, investments to
maintain safety standards in our operations and diversify on the
services.
The Directors do not recommend the payment of an interim dividend.

Conclusions


Inexpensive share. Chased Volumes. Forecourt up significantly.

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Jubilee Kenya reports H1 2019 EPS -7.265% Earnings here
Africa


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           365.00
Total Shares Issued:          72472950.00
Market Capitalization:        26,452,626,750
EPS:             52.52
PE:                 6.950

Jubilee Holdings Limited H1 2019 results through 30th June 2019 vs.
30th June 2018
H1 Gross earned premium and contributions 20.713789b vs. 18.693672b +10.806%
H1 Gross earned premium 15.654443b vs. 14.183336b +10.372%
H1 Outward reinsurance [6.088415b] vs. [5.303819b] +14.793%
H1 Net insurance premium revenue 9.566028b vs. 8.879517b +7.731%
H1 Other revenue 4.067355b vs. 5.729673b -29.012%
H1 Total income 13.633383b vs. 14.609190b -6.679%
H1 Net insurance benefits and claims [9.005821b] vs. [9.840372b] -8.481%
H1 Total expenses and commission [3.008412b] vs. [2.817677b] +6.769%
H1 Results of operating activities 1.619150b vs. 1.951141b -17.015%
H1 Share of results of associates 648.249m vs. 470.596m +37.751%
H1 Group profit before tax 2.267399b vs. 2.421737b -6.373%
H1 Net profit 1.831413b vs. 1.859611b -1.516%
Basic and diluted EPS 21.7 vs. 23.4 -7.265%
Total equity 29.755272b
Government securities 60.203979b
Total Assets 124.292382b
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of period 15.828708b
Interim dividend 1.00 vs. 1.00 –

Conclusions.

Cash and cash equivalents at the end of period 15.828708b speak to the
muscle in te balance sheet
Big GOK Position.
inexpensive on a Trailing PE of 6.95

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Liberty Kenya Holdings.reports H1 2019 EPS +45.833% Earnings here
Africa


Par Value:
Closing Price:           9.60
Total Shares Issued:          535707499.00
Market Capitalization:        5,142,791,990
EPS:             1.03
PE:                 9.320

Liberty Kenya Holdings Limited H1 2019 results through 30th June 2019
vs. 30th June 2018
H1 Gross earned premium revenue 5.236407b vs. 5.041735b +3.861%
H1 Outward reinsurance [1.998694b] vs. [1.910637b] +4.609%
H1 Net insurance premium revenue 3.237713b vs. 3.131098b +3.405%
H1 Investment income and fair value adjustment on financial
investments 1.865490b vs. 1.529060b +22.002%
H1 Total income 5.544377b vs. 5.118075b +8.329%
H1 Net policyholder benefits [2.594561b] vs. [2.606492b] -0.458%
H1 Claims and expenses [4.915540b] vs. [4.633683b] +6.083%
H1 Profit before income tax 628.837m vs. 484.392m +29.820%
H1 Profit after income tax for the period 392.162m vs. 288.893m +35.746%
Basic and diluted EPS 0.70 vs. 0.48 +45.833%
Cash & cash equivalents at the end of the period 4.433946b vs.
2.463048b +80.019%
Total Equity 8.012203b vs. 7.649306b +4.744%
Total Assets 38.218992b vs. 38.487180b -0.697%

Conclusions


well and conservatively managed Franchise.
Need to see some Follow through however.

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LongHorn Kenya reports FY 2019 EPS +1.493% Earnings here
Africa


Par Value:
Closing Price:           7.02
Total Shares Issued:          369940476.00
Market Capitalization:        2,596,982,142
EPS:             0.67
PE:                 10.478

A leading Publishing firm in East Africa.

Longhorn Publishers PLC FY 2019 results through 30th June 2019 vs.
30th June 2018
FY Revenue 1.600397b vs. 1.696318b -5.655%
FY Cost of sales [694.589m] vs. [781.140m] -11.080%
FY Gross profit 905.808m vs. 915.178m -1.024%
FY Distribution costs [156.093m] vs. [134.591m] +15.76%
FY Administrative Expenses [389.378m] vs. [422.452m] -7.829%
FY Operating profit 360.337m vs. 358.364m +0.551%
FY Finance costs [96.369m] vs. [85.218m] +13.085%
FY Profit before income tax 263.968m vs. 273.146m -3.360%
FY Profit for the year 185.125m vs. 183.604m +0.828%
EPS 0.68 vs. 0.67 +1.493%
Total Assets 2.338673b vs. 2.407529b -2.860%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of year 73.128m vs. 418.780m -82.538%
Dividend 0.52 vs. 0.42 +23.810%

COMMENTARY ON RESULTS
Longhorn has recorded a turnover of Ksh 1.60 billion against the
previous year turnover of Ksh 1.69 billion. This reduction in revenue
was attributed to a decline in government spending on textbooks.
The profit after tax for the financial year ended 30 June 2019 was Ksh
185 Million, an increase from Ksh 183 Million from the previous
financial year.
This improved performance in profit, despite the reduction in revenue
generated, was as a result of operational efficiencies achieved
through improvements in the product cycle which has consequently
reduced product origination and printing costs, resulting in a 7%
increase in operating profit margins.
Regional markets contribution to overall revenue increased by 41%.
This was brought about by the successful implementation of the
2018-2021 Strategic Plan which focuses on product diversification for
the regional markets.
The Company’s liquidity position remains strong with positive cash
position of Ksh 73M. The cashflow position has decreased due to some
significant receivables expected from recently concluded contracts.
As we embark on the new financial year, Longhorn continues to make
significant investment in growing its digital product offering as well
as expanding into new territories with special focus on Francophone
countries, which Longhorn seeks to enter through strategic alliances.
Longhorn remains committed to its vision to be the leading provider of
innovative learning solutions in Africa.
The Directors are pleased to recommend the payment of a final dividend
of Ksh 0.52 per share, totaling Ksh 142,548,000 for the year ended 30
June 2019.
The dividend is subject to approval by the shareholders at the 2019
Annual General Meeting and will be paid on or before 26 February 2020.

Conclusions

Dividend = 7.76% of Yield.
Probably need more firepower.

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B.O.C Kenya Ltd reports H1 2019 EPS -66.894% Earnings here
Africa


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           65.25
Total Shares Issued:          19525446.00
Market Capitalization:        1,274,035,352
EPS:             3.35
PE:                 19.478


BOC Kenya PLC HY 2019 results through 30th June 2019 vs. 30th June 2018
HY Revenue 495.166m vs. 487.130m +1.650%
HY Earnings before finance income and taxes 17.668m vs. 43.044m -58.954%
HY Net finance income 21.568m vs. 33.355m -35.338%
HY Exchange [Losses]/Gains [5.653m] vs. 7.961m -171.009%
HY Profit before tax 33.583m vs. 84.360m -60.191%
HY Profit for the year 19.024m vs. 57.301m -66.800%
Basic EPS 0.97 vs 2.93 -66.894%
Interim dividend 2.35 vs. 2.35 –
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of period 17.199m vs. 118.262m -85.457%
Total Assets 2.172739b vs. 2.286717b -4.984%
Total Equity 1.540320b vs.  1.645585b -6.397%

Overview:
Revenue for the six-month period ended 30 June 2019 was up 1.6%
compared to the same period of 2018.
However, profit after tax for the period declined significantly
primarily due to a short-term outage of a key raw material and
unscheduled plant down-time that impacted availability and cost of
finished goods.
The results were also impacted by reduced supply to some public sector
customers due to long overdue debts and lost sales as a result of the
illegal filling of the Company's cylinders.
The Board of Directors anticipates improved results in the second half
of the year. Plant availability has been fully restored, with a
commensurate positive impact on production costs.
Supply of the key unavailable raw material has been resolved and steps
taken to mitigate against recurrence. In addition, the long-standing
problem of illegally filled cylinders is being managed with the
assistance of regulatory authorities.
The Board is also continuing with measures to safeguard shareholder
value by ensuring the Company operations reflect a high level of
efficiency and productivity.
The Board of directors has declared an interim dividend of KShs 2.35
per share for the six-month period ended 30 June 2019 (2018, KShs.
2.35), to be paid out on or about 15 October 2019 to shareholders on
the register at close of business on 27 September 2019.

Conlcusions

Running down the cash position.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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