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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 04th of September 2019
 
Morning
Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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05-AUG-2019 :: I find it curious that 'such a stable genius" has yet to calculate that a strong Dollar is infinitely better and if he is serious about his warfare strategy he needs to add currency warfare to his Tariff, sanction and linguistic warfar
Africa


President Trump keeps talking about weakening the Dollar. I find it
curious that ‘’such a stable genius’’ has yet to calculate that a
strong Dollar is infinitely better and if he is serious about his
warfare strategy he needs to add currency warfare to his Tariff,
sanction and linguistic warfare Arsenal. My Perspective about the
Dollar is this [and note well its just a fraction under its 2019 high
even after a rate cut]; There is very little President Trump can do.
In fact the risk is this that when the market sees he is powerless,
the Dollar might lift off like the proverbial Parabola.

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02-JAN-2019 :: Mellon believed that economic recessions, such as those that had occurred in 1873 and 1907, were a necessary part of the business cycle because they purged the economy.
Africa


I’m not suggesting we are headed into Mellon doctrine Territory.
Mellon believed that economic recessions, such as those that had
occurred in 1873 and 1907, were a necessary part of the business cycle
because they purged the economy. In his memoirs, Hoover wrote that
Mellon advised him to “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate
the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the
system. High costs of living and high living will come down. ...
enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent
people.”

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01-APR-2019 :: There is certainly a Fin de siecle even apocalyptic mood afoot.
Africa


There is certainly a Fin de siècle even apocalyptic mood afoot. The
conundrum for those who wish to bet on the End of the World is this,
however. What would be the point? The World would have ended.

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Mira Nair first turned director with Salaam Bombay, 31 years ago.
Africa


The film echoes Mumbai’s reality till date. Kamathipura might find it
difficult today to sustain its prostitutes due to high rents, as sex
workers move further down into the suburbs. But the stories of their
lives have not evolved. Salaam Bombay stands out for its ability to
give each of its inhabitants, a raison d’être. As Chaipau continues to
dream of earning five hundred bucks just to get back to his mother
living in a village outside the city, there are many others who are
trying to find their own in this chaotic city. There's a Chaipau in
all of us, seeking different things but latched onto a city that never
wants you to give up.
Mira Nair / Oscar/ BAFTA / Golden Globes / Best Foreign Language Film
/ Cannes Film Festival / Pixote

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Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam to announce formal withdrawal of the extradition bill, meeting at least one key demand of protesters SCMP News
Law & Politics


Embattled Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor is set to
formally withdraw on Wednesday afternoon the much-despised extradition
bill that sparked the nearly three-month long protest crisis now
roiling the city, sources have told the Post.
The decision will mean that the government is finally acceding to one
of the five demands of the protesters, who have taken to the streets
over the past 13 weeks to voice not just their opposition to the
legislation, but the overall governance of the city in demonstrations
that have become increasingly violent.

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26-AUG-2019 :: China Strikes at Trump
Law & Politics


@IvanTheK put it pithily and tweeted ‘’CHINA TO THE CHOSEN ONE: GFY’’

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@realDonaldTrump warns China against dragging its feet in trade talks @Reuters
Law & Politics


U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned he would be “tougher” on
Beijing in a second term if trade talks dragged on
He warned that Beijing faced even tougher terms if the two sides did
not resolve their trade dispute and he won re-election in November
2020, writing, “Deal would get MUCH TOUGHER! In the meantime, China’s
Supply Chain will crumble and businesses, jobs and money will be
gone!”

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02-SEP-2019 :: Bow Tie toting Akinwumi A. Adesina who said The US-China trade war and uncertainty over Brexit pose risks to Africa's economic prospects that are "increasing by the day"
International Trade


Last week I closed by quoting the President of the AfDB, the mercurial
and Bow Tie toting Akinwumi A. Adesina who said The US-China trade war
and uncertainty over Brexit pose risks to Africa’s economic prospects
that are “increasing by the day”
“You have Brexit, you also have the recent challenges between Pakistan
and India that have flared off there, plus you have the trade war
between the United States and China. All these things can combine to
slow global growth, with implications for African countries.”
“I think the trade war has significantly impacted economic growth
prospects in China and therefore import demand from China has fallen
significantly and so demand for products and raw materials from Africa
will only fall even further,” he said.
“It will also have another effect with regard to China’s own
outward-bound investments on the continent,” he added. The US China
Trade War continues to intensify notwithstanding the Fact that Aides
have now admitted Trump Made Up “High Level Phone Calls” With China To
Boost Markets. Such a negotiating strategy is of the ‘’Cry Wolf’’ type
and its shelf life infinitesimally short. It is the increasing
intensity of the Trade War which has triggered the Surge into Safe
Havens. Unprecedented Doses of Financial Repression have created
‘’scarcity’’ in the G7 Sovereign Space, further fuelling the interest
Rate Rally. Central Bankers apparently stand ready to increase the
dosage. Central Bankers are seeking to re-imagine the Economic Cycle
and magic it away. Its not going to happen, it never does.
Andrew Mellon believed that eco- nomic recessions, such as those that
had occurred in 1873 and 1907, were a necessary part of the business
cycle because they purged the economy.
In his memoirs, Hoover wrote that Mellon advised him to “liquidate
labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.
Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high
living will come down... enterprising people will pick up the wrecks
from less competent people.”
The overarching macro issue forAfrica remains the Trade War and it
will remain a source of downside pressure via the China EM Frontier
Feedback Loop Phenomenon. This Phenomenon was positive for the last
two decades but has now undergone a Trend rever- sal. The Fall-out is
being experienced as far away as Germany Inc. The ZAR is the purest
proxy for this Phenomenon. African Countries heavily dependent on
China being the main Taker are also at the bleeding edge of this
Phenomenon. This Pressure Point will not ease soon but will continue
to intensify.
As to Brexit, The Queen approved the government’s request to prorogue
parliament. The Financial Times editorial Board pronounced “Boris
Johnson has detonated a bomb under the constitutional apparatus of the
United Kingdom.” - It is clear to me that Pri- me Minister Johnson is
the Triangulator and therefore the United Kingdom is now like the
Pound at risk of a precipitous, downside, even asymmetric move before
the recovery.
China whilst fending off Trump and a flare-Up on its Periphery will
mark the 70th anniversary of People’s Republic on Oct. 1. The DF-41
intercontinental ballistic missile will be a centrepiece of that
parade. China’s miraculous economy is slowing down.
‘’If you had said 2 years ago that the status of global geopolitics
and financial markets depended on the world’s supply of pigs you would
have been laughed out of the room. But you would have been right’’
@SantiagoAu- Fund. Pork inflation in China amid the trade war:”I’ve
never seen anything like this,” said Xiao Tong,a vendor who has been
selling pork for nearly 20 years in Beijing. “Every day the price
rises more.”
China has exerted the Power of Pull over vast swathes of the World
from Germany to Angola, from the Mekong Delta to Asia and that Power
of Pull is now ebbing. Now where does that leave Africa?
Well firstly, it places an enormous premium on nimble Policy Making
and a heavy discount on Policy Making that cannot read the signs or as
Lao Tzu put it “Men are born soft and supple; dead they are stiff and
hard. Plants are born tender and pliant; dead, they are brittle and
dry. Thus whoever is stiff and inflexible is a disciple of death.
Whoever is soft and yielding is a disciple of life. The hard and stiff
will be broken. The soft and supple will prevail.”
Let me tell you by the way who was very nimble, Abiy was. Prime
Minister Abiy has already reprofiled his debt to China.
Of course, the Continent is absolutely non-linear something which we
are seeking to address with the AfCTA and what is key in that is the
free circulation of our most valuable capital
of all our Human Capital. [As a result, population explosion in Africa
has been supercharged compared with earlier adopters of modernity in
Europe. If large numbers of people are a good thing, then this is a
case of last-mover advantage FT] However, the AfCTA whilst surely a
Silver Bullet is some ways off and we have to deal with the NOW. The
NOW looks different depending on where you look at it from. Africa
Confidential is reporting that the G7 had planned to arrange a $2.3bn
bailout for Zimbabwe, which would settle its arrears with the World
Bank, African Development Bank and the European Investment Bank. They
would then immediately release $1bn in a fresh loan (AC Vol 60 No 11,
Austerity first). The quid pro quo, insiders say, was for the
Mnangagwa government to show good will on opening Zimbabwe’s
democratic space. The bailout was not discussed at Biarritz, we hear,
probably because of Harare’s failure to follow through on this.
Remember Lao Tzu. That was the Opportunity. They have blown it. They
also blew $1.3b ahead of the election in 2018, money they did not
have. South Africa with is smack bang in the middle of Fire when it
comes the China EM Frontier Markets Loop Phenomenon, saw its stock
market witness its worst August since 1998.

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05-AUG-2019 Last week the Pound traded below $1.2100 and is now in danger of taking out its post-referendum low of $1.1860
International Trade


Last week the Pound traded below $1.2100 and is now in danger of
taking out its post-referendum low  of $1.1860 but there is
considerable debate about this number because it happened in the
middle of the night when Gremlins and Goblins stalk the FX markets]

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0991
Dollar Index 98.847
Japan Yen 106.23
Swiss Franc 0.98816
Pound 1.2148
Aussie 0.6783
India Rupee 72.0755
South Korea Won 1208.10
Brazil Real 4.16710
Egypt Pound 16.55
South Africa Rand 15.0131

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 6 month INO 1536.25

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d6

Crude Oil Chart this month! Down 6%.@JSBlokland 54.15

https://twitter.com/jsblokland/status/1168889057792987136?s=20

Bitcoin ‘dominance’, measured as bitcoin’s market cap as a % of
the total market cap of all #cryptocurrencies, has risen to above 70%
again as #altcoins have lost much interest and value. ht @hackapreneur

https://twitter.com/jsblokland/status/1168973782960279554

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Sudan's PM chooses 14 members of first cabinet since Bashir's ouster @ReutersAfrica
Africa


Sudan’s prime minister has approved 14 members of his cabinet, the
first to be appointed since the fall of long-term leader Omar
al-Bashir in April, a source said on Tuesday.
The nominations include Sudan’s first female foreign minister, and a
former World Bank economist as its new finance minister who will a
face an economic crisis that has deepened in recent months.
Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok approved them along with 12 other new
ministers, a member of the main civilian group in the ruling Sovereign
Council said.
Asmaa Abdallah had been chosen as foreign minister, according to the
member of the Forces for Freedom and Change grouping, who spoke on
condition of anonymity.
Ibrahim Elbadawi would serve as finance minister, the source added.

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10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating.
Africa


The ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating. As I
watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new
normal.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.8% 2019
Africa


Rágnár Ván Töndérsön @Slipcatch #USDZAR We may re-test the R15.00
area in the next day or two, the black support line.

https://twitter.com/Slipcatch

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Life after power: Joseph Kabila, the gentleman farmer @TheAfricaReport
Africa


Joseph Kabila is not leaving politics behind. From his immense estate
of Kingakati, the former Congolese head of state is pulling the
strings.
On May 29, a special convoy made its way along the road in the middle
of the day, carrying two containers with four African elephants. They
were heading to Kingakati farm, owned by former President Joseph
Kabila.
In this estate, located 50km east of the city, the former head of
state built a large, second home while he was still in power. He had
trees planted, and streetlights erected. A group of eight buildings
are set on a plateau, overlooking the valley of the N’Sele River. In
recent years, Kabila has been in the habit of bringing employees
together to discuss strategy.
But, since leaving the presidency in January, he has made it his main
residence. On March 4, he received his successor, Felix Tshisekedi.
Now as leader of the parliamentary majority, Kabila continues to bring
together the political leaders who have remained loyal to him, and
there are many of them: on 1 May, it was the provincial governors of
the Common Front for Congo (FCC) who were invited to attend; on 22
June, it was the turn of the senators of this coalition. But few have
been able to enter his private apartments.

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Kenya Seeks to Postpone Hearing of Somalia Maritime-Border Case
Kenyan Economy


Kenya is seeking to delay a highly anticipated hearing of a
territorial dispute with Somalia, less than a week before it’s
scheduled to begin.
“Due to exceptional circumstances occasioned by the need to recruit a
new defense team, Kenya has sought to have the matter postponed,” the
Attorney-General’s office said Tuesday in a statement.
 The hearing is due Sept. 9-13 at the United Nations International
Court of Justice.
Both countries claim ownership of an area, almost 150,000 square
kilometers (57,915 square miles) off the Indian Ocean coastline, said
to be rich with oil, gas and tuna fish. In 2014, Somalia’s government
went to court to challenge a 2009 agreement that set its maritime
border along latitudinal lines extending 450 nautical miles into the
Indian Ocean.

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EABL share price data here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           195.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774356.00
Market Capitalization:        154,200,999,420
EPS:             11.23
PE:                 17.364

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#EABLScandals
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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September 2019
 
 
 
 
 
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