|Tuesday 18th of February 2020
Predicting the Future is now in fact more complex than the computer simulations which revealed how galaxies grew over aeons.
Law & Politics
Dominic Cummings [Boris Johnson’s Advisor] captured this best in a
Blog captioned ‘’The Hollow Men’’
Our world is based on extremely complex, nonlinear, interdependent
networks (physical, mental, social).
Properties emerge from feedback between vast numbers of interactions:
for example, the war of ant colonies, the immune system’s defences,
market prices, and abstract thoughts all emerge from the interaction
of millions of individual agents.
Interdependence, feedback, and nonlinearity mean that systems are
fragile and vulnerable to nonlinear shocks: ‘big things come from
small beginnings’ and problems cascade, ‘they come not single spies /
But in battalions’.
Prediction is extremely hard even for small timescales. Effective
action and (even loose) control are very hard and most endeavours
The Industrially Necessary Doctor ;@DrTedros The truth is that only now - TWO MONTHS INTO THE EPIDEMIC - is @WHO sending a "team" to "start investigating" the virus. @EpsilonTheory
Law & Politics
There’s this pleasing mythology out there that the World Health
Organization is like some international version of the Center for
Disease Control, that it’s staffed by scientists and doctors flying
all over the world and racing against the clock to battle infectious
diseases and – against all odds – find The Cure.
I mean, that’s an actual subplot of Contagion, where an intrepid WHO
scientist tracks down the disease origin in Hong Kong, goes to the
remote Chinese village where all of the children are sick (the
children!), is taken prisoner, and works heroically (if ultimately
unsuccessfully) to get vaccines to the children (the children!).
This is a crock.
The World Health Organization is a political organization, bought and
paid for by its sponsor countries (China foremost among them), with a
single, dominant mandate: maintain the party line.
The truth is that WHO has done nothing more than parrot the official
Chinese Communist Party line since the day the world learned of
The truth is that only now – TWO MONTHS INTO THE EPIDEMIC – is WHO
sending a “team” to “start investigating” the virus.
To be sure, WHO’s Director General, Dr. Tedros, has been to China
several times since the disease broke out, glad-handing (again,
literally) President Xi and all the other CCP mandarins.
Tedros said there was no need for measures that “unnecessarily
interfere with international travel and trade,” and he specifically
said that stopping flights and restricting Chinese travel abroad was
“counter-productive” to fighting the global spread of the virus.
This is the Director General of the World Health Organization. On February 4th.
“We call on all countries to implement decisions that are
evidence-based and consistent,” said Tedros. Roger that.
There’s just one problem.
The “evidence” here – taken without adjustment or question from the
CCP – was a baldfaced lie.
And everyone at WHO knew it.
How do I know that everyone at WHO knew that the official Chinese
numbers were a crock on Feb. 4?
Because WHO-sponsored doctors in Hong Kong published independent
studies on Jan. 31 showing that the official Chinese numbers were a
In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive
number for 2019-nCoV was 2.68 (95% CrI 2.47–2.86) and that 75,815
individuals (95% CrI 37,304–130,330) have been infected in Wuhan as of
Jan 25, 2020.
If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere
domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already
growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag
time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.
I’ve attached a PDF of the full report here: Lancet nCov2019 Model.
This is what it looks like when the narrative tail of personal and
professional corruption (must support my Chinese benefactors!) wags
the public policy dog (sure, I’ll recommend that flights and visas
should continue, based on evidence I know is false!).
Will this disease spread farther and faster … will more people DIE …
because WHO Director General Tedros recommended as best practice on
February 4th that flights and visa issuance in and out of China
continue without significant disruption?
Yes. I think so.
And yet … and yet … we are told that the REAL DANGER for public health
is questioning the official Chinese line and these Stepin Fetchit
policy recommendations of Dr. Tedros.
Here’s what Tedros wrote in a South China Morning Post op-ed piece
THREE DAYS AGO:
In addition, a wider strategy is needed to debunk pseudoscience and
strengthen trust in everything from vaccination to public
institutions. Misinformation thrives where trust in the authorities is
In a fast-evolving disease outbreak, there is a fine line between the
deliberate spread of misinformation and the well-intentioned but
potentially still damaging redistribution of false claims.
And here’s a Reuter’s article, also from three days ago:
The rise of “fake news” – including misinformation and inaccurate
advice on social media – could make disease outbreaks such as the
COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic currently spreading in China worse,
according to research published on Friday.
In an analysis of how the spread of misinformation affects the spread
of disease, scientists at Britain’s East Anglia University (UEA) said
any successful efforts to stop people sharing fake news could help
And what is this “fake news”?
Fake news is now defined as anything that disputes WHO data, which
means that fake news is now defined as anything that disputes the
official China party line.
Why did China spend so much money to buy off the World Health
The World Health Organization is working with Google to ensure that
people get facts from WHO first when they search for information about
the new virus that recently emerged in China.
Since the outbreak began, a number of misleading claims and hoaxes
about the virus have circulated online. They include false conspiracy
theories that the virus was created in a lab and that vaccines have
already been manufactured, exaggerations about the number of sick and
dead, and claims about bogus cures.
Associated Press, Feb. 3, 2020
It’s not just Google. It’s also Ten Cent. It’s also Facebook. It’s also Twitter.
And no, you’re not misreading the clear narrative intent of these articles.
Where possible, China wants to criminalize any speech … any social
media … that does not follow the official party line. Where it’s not
possible to criminalize that speech, China wants to ban it through the
cooperative censorship of global tech and media platforms.
Where it’s not possible to ban that speech, China wants to shame it
into the shadows by getting us to reject it as “fake news”.
And if you don’t see that the United States is about two minutes
behind China in doing the same damn thing, then you’re just not paying
I am certain that there are plenty of good people at WHO, and I am
certain that they do good and important work, particularly in
funneling money and resources to actual researchers and actual
But what is happening at the most senior levels of the World Health
Organization is not just a disgrace. It is not just a humiliation for
the people who are doing good and important work.
It is a betrayal of the entire world.
What’s to be done?
Getting Tedros the man out of the World Health Organization will feel
good, and he deserves all the ignominy that’s coming his way, but it
will accomplish nothing.
No, to accomplish anything here, we need to get rid of The
Industrially Necessary Doctor Tedros.
See, the actual human being named Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesusis is not
The Industrially Necessary Doctor Tedros. The human Tedros is just
another on-the-make politician, one of a zillion Renfields who sell
their soul on the daily.
Sure, he was tapped by his Chinese patrons to play the role of The
Industrially Necessary Doctor Tedros, but if it hadn’t been him, there
were plenty of other guys and gals to take his place.
We must look through Tedros the man to see the Nudging Oligarchy and
the Nudging State that created The Industrially Necessary Doctor
We must look through so many of the ideas we take to be immutable
truths of safety or goodness – whether those truths concern the food
we eat or the stocks we buy or the health we seek to preserve – and
recognize that they are not truths at all!
They are conveniences, and not conveniences for us, but for the
sellers of the food we eat or the stocks we buy or the health we seek
THAT’S what it means to be Industrially Necessary – a constructed
social practice in service to those who would subvert our autonomy of
mind and will, presented to us as Truth-with-a-capital-T by
Missionaries who shake their finger at us and tell us HOW to think
about the world.
The Answer BY BEI DAO
Law & Politics
Debasement is the password of the base,
Nobility the epitaph of the noble.
See how the gilded sky is covered
With the drifting twisted shadows of the dead.
The Ice Age is over now,
Why is there ice everywhere?
The Cape of Good Hope has been discovered,
Why do a thousand sails contest the Dead Sea?
I came into this world
Bringing only paper, rope, a shadow,
To proclaim before the judgment
The voice that has been judged:
Let me tell you, world,
If a thousand challengers lie beneath your feet,
Count me as number thousand and one.
I don't believe the sky is blue;
I don't believe in thunder's echoes;
I don't believe that dreams are false;
I don't believe that death has no revenge.
If the sea is destined to breach the dikes
Let all the brackish water pour into my heart;
If the land is destined to rise
Let humanity choose a peak for existence again.
A new conjunction and glimmering stars
Adorn the unobstructed sky now;
They are the pictographs from five thousand years.
They are the watchful eyes of future generations.
#coronavirus "not only damages the lungs, but also damages the circulatory system outside the lungs, the heart, liver, kidneys, and blood, so there are so many sudden collapses!" (Harry Chen PhD) @livecrisisnews
Law & Politics
According to front-line doctors, #coronavirus "not only damages the
lungs, but also damages the circulatory system outside the lungs, the
heart, liver, kidneys, and blood, so there are so many sudden
collapses!" (Harry Chen PhD)
Ethiopia stepping up readiness for coronavirus disease outbreak #COVID19. @WHOAFRO
Addis Ababa, 17 February 2019 – Home to one of Africa’s busiest
international airline hubs, Ethiopia is bolstering preparedness to
contain a potential outbreak of coronavirus disease, now known as
Health authorities are tightening up surveillance, diagnosis, epidemic
response coordination and public health education to swiftly detect
cases and limit widespread infections.
Ethiopia is among 13 African countries the World Health Organization
(WHO) considers as top priority for COVID-19 preparedness due to
direct links or a high volume of travel to China.
The Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population has confirmed the first
case of NOVID-19 in Africa to WHO.
While there have been no confirmed cases reported in sub-Saharan
Africa, the WHO Regional Office for Africa continues to strengthen its
support to countries to detect and manage suspect cases and ensure a
“We are working hard day and night with the government to improve the
critical measures needed to ensure that the country is ready to
effectively respond to an outbreak of COVID-19. We have shipped in
equipment for infection prevention and control and are supporting the
training of health officials,” said Dr Boureima Sambo Hama, WHO
representative in Ethiopia.
“As we speak, with the strong support of WHO, response systems are
close to being right up to standard, Ethiopia is taking the right
steps and we are rallying our efforts to ensure we can detect the
virus and respond in time.”
Since January, there have been numerous alerts for coronavirus disease
reported in Ethiopia but after investigation, including the testing of
suspect cases, no case has been confirmed in the country.
More than 1,800 passengers with travel history to China have been screened.
The country’s main international airport in the capital Addis Ababa is
the third busiest in Africa. The national flag carrier, Ethiopian
Airlines flies 35 times a week to China, but not to Wuhan city in
Hubei province, the epicentre of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic.
Zewdu Assefa, the manager of the Emergency Response Centre at the
Addis Ababa-based Ethiopian Public Health Institute, explained that
strengthening epidemic response coordination, enhancing surveillance
through screenings at the country’s international airports and land
borders were some of the main elements of coronavirus preparedness.
Ethiopia has four international airports and 21 land border crossing points.
In addition, an isolation centre is being set up and more equipment
and supplies needed to prevent and control a potential outbreak were
also being procured with the help of WHO, said Mr Zewdu.
“We have also designated different treatment centres and mapped
hospitals in preparation.” “With the nature of this virus you need
additional capacity in terms of supplies for infection prevention and
control materials. We are facing challenges in that regard,” Zewdu
Ethiopia’s National Influenza and Arbovirus Laboratory can now test
WHO has shipped reagent kits for coronavirus diagnosis to more than 20
countries in Africa to step up diagnosis of the virus and is working
closely with countries to help them prepare for the rapid detection
and response to cases or clusters.
The health authorities in Ethiopia have trained 60 rapid response team
members on coronavirus surveillance, medical care for patients, public
health communication and countering misinformation and rumours.
“We are working with our partners to achieve the (required) standard
level of preparedness,” said Mr Zewdu, pointing out that the country’s
previous preparedness efforts for influenza and Ebola outbreaks were
paying off for coronavirus readiness.
“We are not starting a new thing, but we are strengthening
preparedness. We are also using the experience in EVD (Ebola virus
disease) screening at the points of entry to strengthen screening for
the new coronavirus.”
Vodafone Africa's Path to Expansion Is Paved With $2 Mini Loans @business.
Vodacom Group Ltd. sees its African financial-services business as a
cornerstone of growth as the wireless carrier expands into products
such as funeral insurance and loans of as little as $2.
The unit of the U.K.’s Vodafone Group Plc uses artificial intelligence
and machine learning to customize its financial offering depending on
the different needs of markets ranging from Democratic Republic of
Congo to Mozambique,
Vodacom Chief Executive Officer Shameel Joosub said in an interview.
“Our expectations are that we can grow this business segment at those
levels for the next few years,” he said at the company’s head office
north of Johannesburg.
Nano-loans are growing in popularity, the CEO said, with Kenya a
particularly big market. Meanwhile funeral cover is popular among
South African cultures that traditionally spend relatively large sums
on ceremonies, he added.
“With nano lending we give people $2 or $3 loans and they pay us back
within a few days,” Joosub said. “They can get food when needed, and
water, and electricity.”
Mobile financial services have become a significant source of revenue
for Africa’s telecom companies as the continent’s young and growing
population take advantage of a growing availability of smartphones to
overcome a lack of formal banking infrastructure.
An estimated 84% of Africans will have access to a mobile connection
within the next five years, according to a report by GSMA.
The increased use of mobile phones could boost the sub-Saharan Africa
economy by as much as $150 billion during the same period, according
to the report.
Vodacom has a target of 20% annual growth for financial services over
the longer term as the business stabilizes from initial greater jumps
off a low base.
Sales from the division gained by 37% in the six months through
September. The service fees for nano-loans are typically between 5%
Vodafone is increasingly consolidating African operations under the
Vodacom umbrella, and will give management control of its Ghana
business to Joosub in April.
The Vodacom CEO has also been appointed to the executive committee of
the U.K. parent.
2-SEP-2019 :: the China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon.
China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. This Phenomenon was
positive for the last two decades but has now undergone a Trend
The Fall-out is being experienced as far away as Germany Inc. The ZAR
is the purest proxy for this Phenomenon.
African Countries heavily dependent on China being the main Taker are
also at the bleeding edge of this Phenomenon.
This Pressure Point will not ease soon but will continue to intensify.
@IMFNews Cuts Nigeria GDP Forecast to 2% as Coronavirus Hits Oil @economics
Plunging oil prices on the back of the coronavirus outbreak pushed the
International Monetary Fund to cut Nigeria’s economic growth estimate
to 2% from 2.5% this year.
Africa’s top oil producer now needs a major policy overhaul to reduce
growing vulnerabilities, the IMF said in a statement after concluding
its Article IV consultation to Nigeria.
“Under current policies, the outlook is challenging,” the global
lender said in a statement late on Monday. “The mission’s growth
forecast for 2020 was revised down to 2 percent to reflect the impact
of lower international oil prices.”
Kenya Market Update - 2nd Half 2019 @knightfrank
Production of cement decreased to 5.36 million metric tonnes (MT) in
the 11 months to November, a 3.2% drop from 5.54 million MT over the
same period in 2018.
Similarly, cement consumption decreased to 5.32 million MT in the 11
months, a 2% drop from 5.43 million MT over the same period in 2018.
real estate sector, which is currently suffering from an oversupply
and low transaction levels due to reduced liquidity in the market.
The 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census indicated that the Kenyan
population grew to 47.6 million in 2019 from 37.7 million in 2009.
Nairobi County recorded a population of 4.4 million, the largest
amongst the 47 counties, whist Mombasa County currently host a
population of 1.2 million.
Stanlib Fahari I-REIT closed at Ksh 9.42 on 31st December 2019, which
was 53% lower than its initial listing price of Ksh 20.
Home Afrika’s share price closed at Ksh 0.60 on 31st December 2019,
which was 95% lower than the initial listing price of Ksh 12.
The Capital Gains Tax was retained at 5% following the assent to the
Finance Act 2019 in November.
Rents for prime retail stores decreased by 4.2% in the second half of
2019 to US$ 4.6 (Ksh 466.44) per square foot per month.
The drop was mainly attributed to an oversupply of retail space in
certain locations and reduced consumer spending due to the current
These factors have resulted in the retail sector remaining a tenants’
market, with landlords having to increasingly make concessions to
compete with other retail centres for occupiers.
Occupancy levels for retail averaged 77%, with the more established
malls recording higher occupancy levels of over 90%.
Footfall for most retail centres in Nairobi decreased over the review
period due to competition amongst the increased number of malls,
reduced consumer spending power and growth of e-commerce.
Major retail developments in the pipeline include Comesa Mall in
Eastleigh (280,000 sq ft) and Phase III of City Mall in Nyali (50,000
There was a notable decrease in the number of shopping centre
developments opening in Nairobi and its environs over the period.
In the second half of 2019, prime office rents remained unchanged at
US$ 1.3/sq ft/month. This was due to the oversupply of commercial
space in some locations and an unfavourable economic climate
One of the main contributors to the increase in absorption of office
space were serviced office providers who continued to expand over the
Notable examples include Kofisi, formerly known as Eden Square
Business Centre (ESBC), which opened a
new co-working space in Karen, while Nairobi Garage opened its fourth
co-working space at The Promenade in Westlands in December, taking up
circa 30,000 sq ft.
Nairobi, which is considered the African Silicon Savannah, remains a
favourable location for global tech investors and venture capitalists
targeting early start-ups.
According to the Global Innovation Index (GII) 2019 report by World
Intellectual Property Organisation, Kenya was ranked the second
leading innovation hub in Sub-Saharan Africa after South Africa.
Findexable Global Fintech Rankings in December also ranked Nairobi as
Africa’s second largest fintech hub after Johannesburg and has
considered it one of the fast-growing fintech cities.
In October, the United Kingdom announced the launch of a Ksh 1.3
billion fund dedicated to Kenyan fintech start-ups.
US remained the leading source country for tourists, with the
commencement of direct flights by Kenya Airways in 2018 between
Nairobi and New York having assisted in sustaining the growth.