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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 23rd of April 2021
 
Afternoon
Africa

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“Derivatives,” Alvin said. “I don’t speculate about the future, I trade it.” @NewYorker
Misc.







And they were cross‑linked and interwoven and resold in large bundles, “future on future,” Alvin said, handing me a paper towel. 

“Forget about the forces of the free market, my friend. Commodity prices no longer refer to any value, past or present—they’re just ghosts from the future.”




Conclusions

The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! I beg to differ

 




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Ecclesiastes 1:2-11 2 Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher
Misc.



Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher,

vanity of vanities! All is vanity.

A generation goes, and a generation comes,

but the earth remains forever.

The sun rises, and the sun goes down,

and hastens[b] to the place where it rises.

What has been is what will be,

and what has been done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun.

Is there a thing of which it is said,

“See, this is new”?

It has been already

in the ages before us.

There is no remembrance of former things, nor will there be any remembrance

of later things[d] yet to be

among those who come after.

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Octavio Paz. @princessekateri
Misc.



“In my body you search the mountain 

for the sun buried in its forest. 

In your body I search for the boat 

adrift in the middle of the night.”

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Octavio Paz The Street
Misc.




Here is a long and silent street.

I walk in blackness and I stumble and fall

and rise, and I walk blind, my feet

trampling the silent stones and the dry leaves.

Someone behind me also tramples, stones, leaves:

if I slow down, he slows;

if I run, he runs I turn : nobody.

Everything dark and doorless,

only my steps aware of me,

I turning and turning among these corners

which lead forever to the street

where nobody waits for, nobody follows me,

where I pursue a man who stumbles

and rises and says when he sees me : nobody.




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#COVID19 #thirdwave has surpassed the #secondwave in daily reported cases. @AsjadNaqvi
Misc.


In #India cases are exploding with the new #B1617 variant and capacity constraints might hit soon. It is now 40% of global cases. 

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28-MAR-2021 :: We are once again entering an exponential escape velocity Phase #COVID19
Misc.




The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved though all the virologists who have metastasized into vaccinologists will have you believe its all sunlit uplands from here. 

Glorious sunrise at the Borana conservancy @nickdimbleby @JamboMagazine




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States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
Law & Politics








Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah 

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”




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Indian variant B.1.617 aside from mutations E484Q&L452R in spike receptor binding domain lead to increase affinity to human ACE2 receptors, increased infectivity & viral replication & some cellular & humoral immune escape @TWenseleers
Misc.


Indian variant B.1.617 has a couple of interesting mutations: aside from mutations E484Q&L452R in the spike receptor binding domain, which lead to increase affinity to human ACE2 receptors, increased infectivity & viral replication & some cellular & humoral immune escape

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B.1.617 .it also has mutation P681R, which adds one more R at the furin cleavage site, making it even more polybasic (PRRAR became RRRAR). @TWenseleers
Misc.





This likely boosts cell-level infectivity by facilitating cleavage of the S precursor protein to the active S1/S2 configuration.

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A bit concerned by scientists claiming with absolute certainty that VOCs will not evade vaccine responses & that this has never happened in 'real people'. @dgurdasani1
Misc.



A bit concerned by scientists claiming with absolute certainty that VOCs will not evade vaccine responses & that this has never happened in 'real people'. 

This has happened in clinical trials & dismissing very real risks provides false reassurance & prevents pre-emptive action.



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The statement that no variant has escaped disease induced immunity is likely false based on the epidemiology of outbreaks in Latin America, South Africa &c. @OYCar
Misc.



The statement that no variant has escaped disease induced immunity is likely false based on the epidemiology of outbreaks in Latin America, South Africa &c. Indeed the onus of proof is reversed in this claim; to make it you need to show it hasn't happened, rather than it has.




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Now for the kicker on Evidence Based Science: New variant is here, all of the existing evidence is worthless, obsolete. @yaneerbaryam
Misc.


What you gonna do? Start all over again? Or make incorrect assumption of independence from the change (not evidence based!).

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.2052

Dollar Index 91.045

Japan Yen 107.90

Swiss Franc 0.9164

Pound 1.3885

Aussie 0.7743

India Rupee 74.8175 [SELL] TARGET 80.00

South Korea Won 1117.32

Brazil Real 5.445

Egypt Pound 15.6935

South Africa Rand 14.27315

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Coffee lovers and home bakers drive strongest Nestle quarter in a decade
Commodities



Coffee drinkers, pet owners and home bakers helped to drive the biggest rise in quarterly sales at Nestle (NESN.S) for 10 years, as the world's biggest food group outshone Danone (DANO.PA) and set a high bar for Unilever (ULVR.L).

The Swiss group has weathered the COVID-19 pandemic well so far, as consumers have bought more packaged foods and tried to brighten up lockdowns with Starbucks at-home coffee or making treats with Carnation evaporated milk.

Nestle's ecommerce business also fared well in the first quarter, with sales up 40%, and its health science business benefitted as people bought more vitamins and supplements. Demand for fortified milks boosted dairy too.

"What a blow out – the strongest quarterly number since 2011," Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Jon Cox said, pointing to a recovery in emerging markets, while Bernstein analyst Bruno Monteyne described the figures as an "amazing beat".

Organic sales leapt 7.7% in the first quarter versus 4.3% in the same period last year, easily beating a forecast for 3.3% growth in a company-compiled consensus and a 3.3% drop in sales posted by peer Danone (DANO.PA) this week.

Coffee was the largest contributor to growth, with Nespresso portioned coffee up more than 17%, dairy rising almost 16% and petcare around 9%, Nestle said

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26-NOV-2018 :: "It's because I'm a bad trader and I KNOW I'M A BAD TRADER. Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro."
World Of Finance



GameKyuubi posted "I AM HODLING," a drunk, semi-coherent, typo-laden rant about his poor trading skills and determination to simply hold his bitcoin from that point on. 

"I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time. Still wrong. w/e," he wrote in reference to the now-famous misspelling of "holding." 

"WHY AM I HOLDING? I'LL TELL YOU WHY," he continued. "It's because I'm a bad trader and I KNOW I'M A BAD TRADER.  Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro."

He concluded that the best course was to hold, since "You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob.  The people inbetween hold. In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell." 

He then confessed he'd had some whiskey and briefly mused about the spelling of whisk(e)y.  

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08-FEB-2021 :: The Markets Are Wilding @elonmusk I am become meme, Destroyer of shorts
World Currencies




And on February 4 He tested that hypothesis

No highs, no lows, only Doge @elonmusk Feb 4 

Dogecoin is the people’s crypto @elonmusk Feb 4


You have it all wrong The Pink Tulips aren't Trading Tulips, they're investing Tulips @StockCats


The hardest thing at the peak is to be the naysayer the short seller.

Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom. VS NAIPAUL


“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”

...and so then I says to the guy, "listen - you don't understand Radio..." @coloradotravis


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$GOLD Big Picture View: Its been a nice bounce, but zooming out reveals this move is likely young This targets $1850 then $2200 @AdamMancini4 1783.00
Commodities



1) Gold held its core uptrend line from 2019 on March 30

2) Its been building a clean bull flag for 7 months

3) This targets $1850 then $2200, but 1700 must hold now

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Excellent follow through in $GOLD and en route to my 1820/1850 first targets. @AdamMancini4
Commodities


Also important to note: We collapsed in March was because Gold lost the major low from November at 1765. We've now recaptured it, making March's selloff a fake breakdown. Strong bottoming pattern

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A novel variant Tanzania Up until the discovery of the new variant, all other variants of interest or concern derive from a common ancestral virus, the B.1 strain This is not so for the newly described variant @Forbes @WmHaseltine
Africa



The versatility of SARS-CoV-2 to evolve new variants that increase transmissibility, virulence, and immune evasion is a new troubling feature of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

The recent discovery of a novel variant emerging from Tanzania adds a new chapter to this disturbing story. 

Up until the discovery of the new variant, all other variants of interest or concern derive from a common ancestral virus, the B.1 strain that first made its appearance in early 2020. 

This is not so for the newly described variant. It evolved from an entirely different source, the A lineage, a finding that substantially expands our understanding of the repertoire of mutants we must be prepared to contend with in the months and years ahead.

The difference between the A and B lineages are three mutations that have come to define the B lineage that has displaced almost all others around the world. 

The common understanding is that a single amino acid change in the spike protein, the D614G mutation, increases both the ability of the virus to bind to the ACE2 receptor and, at the same time, stabilizes the interaction between the S1 and S2 protein of the spike, conferring an increase in transmissibility. 

I and others have suggested that the D614G substitution may not be all to the story of success for the B.1 variant. 

The B.1 lineage viruses carry two additional mutations: the P323L mutation in the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (NSP12), which is the key to virus replication and the production of viral mRNA and another mutation in the 5 prime untranslated region of the genome. 

Although hardly studied, both of these mutations may contribute, along with D614G, to the replication competence and transmissibility in the spike protein.

The Tanzanian variant (which is how I will denote it as it lacks official designation) teaches us that variants of interest and concern may lack all three defining mutations of the B.1 strain. 

Nonetheless, the new variant is of interest and of possible concern as it carries a number of mutations in the spike protein characteristic of other bonafide variants of concern from the B.1 lineage. 

Of the 13 mutations that distinguish the spike protein of the Tanzanian variant from the original Wuhan strain, eight are found in the B.1 family of variants

This is a remarkable illustration of convergent evolution. No one B.1 variant carries all these mutations, but each must confer some selective advantage to the A lineage variant. 

It is worth noting the five spike mutations unique to the Tanzanian virus, as they are likely to appear sooner or later in B.1 linage variants as well.


The observation of greatest concern is that the Tanzanian virus posses the E484K mutation found in many of the B.1 variants of concern

This mutation confers resistance to neutralizing antibodies of convalescent and vaccine plasma and also reduces the activity of some neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. 

This observation suggests that like other variants, this Tanzanian virus may heed resistant, at least partially, to the current generation of Covid-19 vaccines. 

The E484K mutation also increases the affinity of the spike protein for the ACE2 receptor, raising the possibility of increased transmissibility.  


Another mutation of note in the spike protein is P681H. This change occurs near the cleavage site between the S1 and S2 spike subproteins.

 We and others speculate that this mutation increases transmissibility by increasing the efficiency of the spike precursor S protein, a requirement for infectivity. 

All of the variants of concern carry a number of mutants in the N-terminal domain of the spike protein. 

Again, in an example of convergent evolution, four of these mutations are present in B.1 lineage variants, but not all together in any other single variant. 

The N-terminal domain contains a super antigenic site, the target of many neutralizing antibodies. Many of the N-terminal domain mutants of the Tanzanian virus map to this site.

As no specific function is attributed as yet to the N-terminal domain, this set of mutations is thought to increase the ability of the virus to escape immune detection. 

I suspect that is not all there is to the story. We can ask the question: Why are there such convergence-specific mutations in the superantigenic and other sites?  Investigations of the functions of the N-terminal domain deserve further study.


An additional 18 amino acid changes occur in proteins outside the spike protein. 

These include 14 in the orf1ab proteins that specify the replication complex. Extensive mutations in the replication complex are a common feature of B.1 linage variants. 

I and others speculate that these mutations confer enhanced replication competence, contributing to an increase in viral load virulence and transmission. 

Not all of the selective advantage of variants is readily attributed to mutations in the spike proteins alone.   

Of the remaining four amino acid changes outside of the spike protein, there are two in the structural proteins, one each in the envelope (E) protein and nucleocapsid (N) protein. 

Antibodies targeting both are present in convalescent plasma raising the possibility that these changes contribute to immune evasion. 

The remaining two mutants both change the coding sequence of the accessory orf8 protein. 

One of these is identical to a mutation in a B.1 linage variant of concern.  

I note that orf8 is amongst the most frequently mutated viral proteins common to all variants of concern. 

The orf8 protein is one of the most antigenic of the SARS-CoV-2 proteins, raising the reasonable hypothesis that these are escape mutants. 

Elsewhere, some have suggested that orf8 may slow viral replication and that mutations that truncate the orf8 protein otherwise reduce its function may increase the viral load in infected patients.



So why is this new variant relevant? This is another variant we have to be especially vigilant towards. 

It may be as infectious and immune evasive as the widespread B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants, in addition to potential reinfection capabilities, as they carry similar mutations

It also represents why we need more comprehensive variant surveillance around the world. 

Were this not detected in the Angolan airport, it may have caused havoc in the country and elsewhere. 

We do not yet know exactly how dangerous the Tanzanian variant may be. 

That is partly due to the new total blackout of information during the pandemic from that country. 

Official data would have that no infections have occurred in Tanzania since May 2020, which is clearly not the case. 

The appearance of a new variant of interest and possibly of concern detected in travelers from that country highlights the need for transparency, both for the control of Covid-19 within the country and for the dangers viruses emanating from Tanzania may pose for the rest of the world.



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France, Libya and the ‘crazy’ frontline death of Chad strongman Déby @FinancialTimes
Africa


Killing of ‘warrior’ leader at heart of fight against jihadis heralds uncertain era in the Sahel

By the time Chad’s electoral commission had declared President Idriss Déby Itno the winner of his sixth term, the former general was already dead or dying from wounds sustained hundreds of miles away at the front line of a firefight with a rebel convoy sweeping south from Libya.



The death of the strongman of N’Djamena — a rare modern case of a head of state dying in battle — blows a hole in the French-led fight against jihadism, removes the west’s greatest African ally in the war on extremism and strands Chadians in the middle of an internal power struggle.

After three decades of his brutal and kleptocratic rule, “the sudden death of President Idriss Déby has left Chad in a state of political, security and social uncertainty”, said Kelma Manatouma, a Chadian researcher at Paris-Nanterre university. 

Chad is not only the most important regional army fighting alongside France’s 5,000-troop Operation Barkhane in the Sahel but is the main player in the decade-long fight against jihadis Boko Haram, picking up the slack for Nigeria’s under-equipped army.

“In his absence, if there is not a smooth transition or if this rebellion gets serious and Chad is distracted and taken out of the equation, the security implications for Sahel and even for Nigeria are relatively dire,” said J Peter Pham, who served as Sahel envoy for the Trump administration. 

The circumstances of Déby’s death remain murky. With his 37-year-old son now interim leader, some observers have speculated that the mounting resentment within the army and his ruling clan had finally come to a head.


But it was not surprising that on the day election results were announced Déby had travelled hundreds of kilometres to the front line of the battle with Libya-based rebels from the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT), said Cameron Hudson, an expert at the Atlantic Council, even if it was “crazy”.

“This is entirely in keeping with his MO and his persona. He [was] a battlefield commander, that’s where he [was] most comfortable,” said Hudson, a former US government official on Africa. 

“Previous coup attempts he has gone to the front lines and personally directed assaults and campaigns. He [was] a military tactician through and through and that was a reason Paris and Washington liked him so much.”

General Stephen Townsend, the top US commander for Africa, told Congress that Chadian troops with French support had confronted a rebel column hundreds of vehicles long that appeared to be withdrawing when Déby was apparently struck. Many of the rebels are former Chadian officers.

A French miscalculation?

This was just the latest French intervention on behalf of Déby, who has faced a series of uprisings since seizing power in 1990. 

Two years ago, Paris sent fighter jets to strike another rebel convoy heading for N’Djamena; in 2008, French soldiers helped beat back another insurrection.

Déby’s hands-on approach against jihadis and his highly capable army encouraged France and the US to turn a blind eye to the repression and rampant corruption that left the oil-rich country among the poorest in the world. 

“Whatever else one may think of Déby and how he governed Chad . . . over the course of 30 years he has made himself the centre of a web of political and security links that run across that whole region,” said Pham. 

“He intentionally made himself useful if not indispensable.”




President Emmanuel Macron, who will attend Déby’s state funeral, called him “a courageous friend” of France, as the Chadian army dissolved parliament and instituted an 18-month transitional military government. 

France’s foreign minister defended the unconstitutional takeover in the name of “stability” despite an outcry from Chad’s opposition and a general who said he spoke for many soldiers.

The ex-colonial power had “miscalculated” by depending so much on Déby, said a European diplomat in the region. 

“Chad, and his military and security apparatus at large, was always considered to be the backbone of [France’s military alliance in the Sahel] and this backbone is now in danger,” the person said.

While General Mahamat Idriss Déby, the head of the elite presidential guard, known as “Kaka”, had been groomed to replace his father, “no one in the Chadian regime, whether son or nephew, can lead the country as Déby used to”, said a French diplomat with close knowledge of France’s Africa policy.

Blowback from Libya

The Chadian rebels’ indirect ties to the rogue Libyan general Khalifa Haftar, who failed to overthrow the former government in Tripoli and is believed to have used FACT to secure an air base, complicates matters further.

Haftar has received backing from Paris but also from the United Arab Emirates and Russia, France’s main rival for influence in the neighbouring Central African Republic.

A warrior dynasty in Chad will do little to end Islamist threat

Russia’s indirect support for these rebels hints at a potential proxy war, said Jérôme Tubiana, a researcher focused on Chad. 

“France is losing the Central African Republic, and now Russia is maybe pushing also against French interests in Chad.”

At the very least “the incursion into Chad shows the potential for blowback due to the practice of the Libyan parties of recruiting foreign mercenaries as fighters,” said Wolfram Lacher, senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

A French diplomat who knew Déby expressed a romantic view of the late president common in Paris, calling him a “warrior” who “wanted to die in battle rather than in a hospital bed”.

“He died as he lived,” the person said. “He was ruthless, cynical, he could have done much better with the oil. But he was in his specific way honest. He didn’t pretend to be what he wasn’t.”

Ayisha Osori, head of the Open Society Initiative for West Africa, said the Parisian view betrayed a casual indifference to the fate of ordinary Chadians.

“It just seems fundamentally unfair that the whole world’s view of Déby is ‘oh, we’ve lost the great soldier’,” she said. 

“And now we have to do everything to make sure Chad is secure. But we don’t really mean Chad, we just mean the borders around Chad — the border that leads to Mali, to Nigeria, to Sudan, to Central African Republic.

“It is not about the people of Chad and what’s good for them.”



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#Deby is dead. #Chad’s future is in the balance. Rebels seem very well equipped. Note the blue vehicles bearing the flag of a neighbouring country. Inconclusive but worth examining. @DinoMahtani
Africa


Conclusions

These Folks are well provisioned. The Question is by whom? This is a Question @Emmanuelmacron must be surely asking himself. looks like Putin to me.

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28 OCT 19 :: From Russia with Love
Africa




“Russia regards Africa as an important and active participant in the emerging polycentric architecture of the world order and an ally in protecting international law against attempts to undermine it,” said Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov

Recently we have seen Russian interventions in the Central African Republic CAR.


In July this year, a three-minute animated video appeared on YouTube. Called Lionbear, the cartoon was aimed at children and told the story of a brave but beleaguered Central African lion, who was fighting a losing battle against a pack of hungry hyenas. 

Luckily the lion had a friend who came to the rescue — the strong Russian bear. The bear fights off the hyenas brings peace to the land and everyone lives happily ever after.




Andrew Korybko writes Moscow invaluably fills the much-needed niche of providing its partners there with “Democratic Security”, or in other words, the cost-effective and low-commitment capabilities needed to thwart colour revolutions and resol- ve unconventional Wars (collectively referred to as Hybrid War).

To simplify, Russia’s “political technologists” have reportedly devised bespoke solutions for confronting incipient and ongoing color revolutions, just like its private military contractors (PMCs) have supposedly done the same when it comes to ending insurgencies


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French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said the military was justified in its actions as the speaker of parliament had declined to take charge. @Reuters.
Africa



"Logically, it should be (speaker Haroun) Kabadi ... but he refused because of the exceptional security reasons that were needed to ensure the stability of this country," Le Drian told France 2 television.


Macron met General Deby on Thursday evening, a source at the French presidency said.

Deby, although criticised by human rights groups for his repressive rule over three decades, was a lynchpin in France's security strategy in Africa.

About 5,100 French troops are based across the region as part of international operations to fight Islamist militants and France has its main base in N'Djamena.



Dissent within the military has raised concerns about stability in Chad.

"Kaka (Mahamat Deby) only has partial support of the army. He is young and, unlike his father, has never been a rebel," said Jerome Tubiana, an analyst specialising on Chad.

"Within the army, there's indeed (at least) two groups."


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Aux proches du président Idriss Deby, à ses soldats et au peuple tchadien, j’adresse mes condoléances les plus sincères. @MLP_officiel
Africa



La France perd un allié, mais surtout un ami. 

Sa rigueur, sa discipline, sa disponibilité et son courage nous manqueront.

To the relatives of President Idriss Deby, his soldiers and the Chadian people, I send my most sincere condolences.

France loses an ally, but above all a friend.

His rigor, his discipline, his availability and his courage will be missed.

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#Ghana: The economy narrowly missed economic contraction in 2020, with the full-year GDP print coming in at 0.4%. @RMBCIB
Africa


The combination of an early lockdown, a spike in inflation due to panic buying, and weaker oil prices weighed on the economy.  

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Running out of public credit @Africa_Conf
Africa



As the Jubilee government plans a referendum on another costly bout of devolution, citizens protest against rising debt

Arguments over public debt and fiscal balance have left the cabinet rooms and think tanks for the streets. 

At home and in public meeting places, Kenyans are airing concerns that government borrowing is out of control.

Several petitions, signed by thousands, urge the International Monetary Fund to reconsider its decision this month to lend President Uhuru Kenyatta's government $2.34 billion in a three-year financing package 

The IMF conditions for the loan include reducing the size of the civil service to cut high wage bills, although ministers are likely to try to avoid job cuts, and a programme of privatisation and restructuring of state corporations.

The funding programme includes a commitment to fight corruption and broaden the tax base. 

Yet confidence in the government's anti-graft campaign is close to zero.

Tax reform is urgently needed. Government is reluctant to focus on corporate tax evasion, property levies and compliance measures in general. 

Instead, it is likely to raise fuel duty and income tax, both of which disproportionately hit the poor and the lower middle class. 

Most of the elite can circumvent income tax while holding out against taxes on their land and property.

'Previous loans to the Kenya government have not been prudently utilised and have often resulted in mega-corruption scandals,' reads a petition circulating online and on social media.

Public debt is rising towards 70% of GDP. Grand new infrastructure projects and hefty budget deficits in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic mean still higher debt levels in the coming years (AC Vol 61 No 20, A DIY debt trap). 

Before the pandemic struck, Kenya was spending 40% of its tax revenue on debt repayment.

Public opposition will not stop the latest IMF loan. But it is a clear message ahead of elections next August: voters are watching ever more closely how politicians spend public funds.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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April 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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