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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 27th of July 2009
www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

Latest PodCast can be found here.

There are 2.

The 1st is with an International Flavour.

The 2nd is Kenya and Africa centric.

I thank Alishia for the interview on CNBC Africa this morning. Thanking You.

I thank Xan Rice for carrying my thoughts re the BroadBand Revolution
in the Guardian. Thanking You too.

Macro Thoughts

$ headed towards 70.00 on the $ Index.

Home Thoughts

Tales from the Mountainside.

We had a wonderful time at Mt. Kenya Safari Club. It was very quiet on
Friday and we had the run of the place practically to ourselves. We
found William Holden's Film Studio and pottered about and imagined the
remembrances of things Past. Played some Golf. Really it has an
antique charm and History. There was a Print in my room. There were
about 10 Horses being groomed and underneath was written

Mount Kenya. Only White Syces [will look it up but must mean a Groom] allowed.

Poolside I met a Lady called Susie Wren [Nishet told me she could
hear my chuckling on the Badminton Court] who told me amongst many
other things, that there are 15,000 Cattle on the Mountain and that
the Masai Cows are not used to the chilled Stream Waters and are
catching Pneumonia.
read more

South Africa faces strike chaos BBC
South Africa is bracing itself for a week in which bus, train and
municipal workers are all set to go on strike.The industrial action
will see more than 160,000 people stop work in claims for higher
wages.This is the latest in a series of challenges for South Africa's
new President Jacob Zuma, who has called for understanding from
workers.There were violent demonstrations in several townships last
week, during which some 200 people were arrested.It is proving to be a
cold and difficult winter for Jacob Zuma.Just two months after taking
power, he is facing South Africa's first recession since the end of

Crowd-pleasing promises are proving hard to keep.

An early pledge to create 500,000 new jobs has already been retracted
and demonstrations in the townships turned violent this month over
long-held grievances about the delivery of services and housing.

As if that wasn't enough, this is strike season.


A very short HoneyMoon.
read more

A Nation Hard to Short New York Times
World Of Finance
The other morning, I caught Warren Buffett on MSNBC. The Sage of Omaha
was in sprightly form, perhaps buoyed by the market’s summer surge. He
was asked where the market was headed in the next few months and he
said he had no idea but he knew one thing: “It’s hard to short America
in the long term.”

Frank McCourt, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author who died last week,
used to talk about that New York skyline, about the way he would dream
of it during his miserable childhood in Limerick, Ireland (the
inspiration for his hugely successful “Angela’s Ashes”), and about his
fights with his brother Malachy over who should own the right to have
such dreams.

He was talking about the summoning power of America, a land hardwired
to the future; and, in his way, about the deeper reason why Buffett is
right to say, “It’s hard to short America in the long term.” That
reason is the enduring belief of millions in America as a transforming


Dear Roger Cohen Esq.,

'He was talking about the summoning power of America, a land hardwired
to the future..'

I have to agree and the wider point is that the c21st is not about
Natural Resources but about Human Capital. The most valuable Capital
is Intellectual Capital. However, you can have the Greatest Brains but
in many places, they contribute nothing.

And the key advantage America gives to its Citizens is that anything
is possible and it does not matter where you come from. A lot of
Countries would do well to emulate that Philosophy. Its a decisive

It was all put another way by Brian De Palma in his seminal Gangster
Movie 'Scarface'. Al Pacino is working in a Hot Dog store in Miami and
a Hot Air Balloon crosses the sky and on it is written;

'The World is Yours.'

Few Countries manage to imbue their Citizens with that Sense. Its empowering.

Aly-Khan Satchu
Twitter alykhansatchu
read more

Evolution of a Revolution: Visualizing Millions of Iran Tweets
Law & Politics
At its peak, a search for "Iran" on Twitter generated over 100,000
tweets per day and over 8,000 tweets per hour. The plot just below
shows the growth in volume of information in the number of tweets per

The proliferation of real-time search engines and trend monitors
(sometimes referred to as "listening platforms") has thus far done
little to address problems of this scale and importance. This is
because they fail to provide context -- i.e. show how a new piece of
information is relevant to what we've seen before and where it fits in
the space of possibilities and relationships.One promising area is
data-oriented user interfaces: data and algorithmic analysis in the
back-end and direct visualization and navigation in the front-end.
This the next stage of social information, slicing and dicing, mixing
and matching, interpreting and analyzing, completely on demand. In
this new landscape, the data is the interface..

Look at the bandwidth plots below. They represent the relative volume
of different Iran-related phrases on Twitter over time. Their most
striking characteristic is how discrete and spikey they are: a
tell-tale sign of an organic computational system.


Very Interesting read.
read more

Nigeria clashes kill over 50 in northeastern city Reuters
More than 50 Nigerians were killed on Sunday in clashes between
security forces and militants in the northeastern city of Bauchi,
residents and hospital sources said.The fighting began early on Sunday
when around 70 militants armed with guns and explosives attacked a
local police station in retaliation for the arrest of their
leaders.Police and soldiers repelled the attack and then raided
neighbourhoods to arrest those responsible. Hospital sources and
residents said more than 50 people were killed in the fighting.A
Reuters reporter counted 32 bodies at two Bauchi police stations and
said dozens were wounded among the more than 200 arrested. The
official government death toll is 39, including one soldier.

"We have pre-empted the militants. Otherwise the situation would have
been bad," Bauchi state Governor Isa Yuguda told reporters.

Police spokesman Mohammed Barau said the militants belonged to, a
local group that wants sharia (Islamic law) to be imposed on all of

A member of Boko Haram who was wounded during the initial attack on
the police station told Reuters his group wanted to "clean the
(Nigerian) system which is polluted by western education and uphold
sharia all over the country."

"The police has been arresting our leaders that is why we decided to
retaliate," said the man, who gave his name only as Abdullah.


There has been a continued Spike in these situations, in Nigeria. The
Delta and MEND and now Boko Haram.
read more

Forget Aloof, Bernanke Goes Barnstorming New York Times
World Of Finance

Ben Bernanke was very much handed a Poisoned Chalice. Mr. Paulson was
fond of reiterating that he was forced to play the hand he was dealt
but Bernanke was even to a greater degree.

His recent Outreach confirms that he is the Man for the Job right now.
Criticism can be levelled at the FED for the way Bear Stearns and then
Lehman were handled. One senses that when there was blood in the
water, the Authorities played a little fast and loose but we were in
the eye of the storm then.

Bernanke has laid out a forward View and Exit Strategy [Its entirely
debatable as to whether it will play out in the manner envisaged but
at least, Its a Plan] and he is to be commended for it.

We are at an incredibly sensitive moment with regard to the Economy

and he has displayed a finesse and a touch that the President would do
very well to note.

Aly-Khan Satchu
Twitter alykhansatchu
read more

$ Index INO
World Currencies
Last trade 78.626 Change -0.231 (-0.30%)

52wk High 80.375 52wk High Date 2008-09-11
52wk Low 70.698 52wk Low Date 2008-03-17


My Target remains 70.00.
read more

US Bond market at a glance WSJ
World Of Finance

Remain of the view that the Japanese Preemptive strike and then Double
Dip experience will mean the FED will be very careful to leave rates
at these Levels for the forseeable future.

I see the Curve steepening further.

Hence I would be long <2 Year Paper and Buying Insurance on any Long
End Rallies.
read more

There is a Deluge of US Supply this week MARKETWATCH
World Of Finance
The government will start next week's auctions with $6 billion in
20-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. It will also sell $42
billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, followed by $39 billion in
five-year notes /quotes/comstock/31*!ust5yr (UST5YR 2.53, 0.00,
-0.08%) on Wednesday and $28 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday.
The amount of 2-year, 5-year and 7-year notes will all be the
largest-ever auctions on record.

Also on Monday and Tuesday, the government will auction $27 billion in
52-week bills /quotes/comstock/31*!ust1yr (UST1YR 0.42, -0.01, -2.31%)
, $31 billion in 26-week bills /quotes/comstock/31*!ust6mo (UST6MO
0.26, 0.00, -1.49%) and $32 billion in 13-week bills
/quotes/comstock/31*!ust3mo (UST3MO 0.18, 0.00, -2.20%) .


Its a Deluge, no two ways about it.
read more

UK 10 Year Gilt Yield chart FixedIncome Investor
World Currencies

We might get a small relief type rally off 4% again but risks are
skewed to 4.5% Yield levels.
read more

101 Simple Salads for the Season New York Times
Food, Climate & Agriculture
FRESH AND FRESHER Clockwise, from top left: tuna, egg, green beans
(No. 56); carrots, blueberries, sunflower seeds (7); croutons,
tomatoes, mozzarella (42); walnuts, blue cheese, raspberries (49);
couscous, oranges, honey (95); strawberries, tomatoes, Parmesan (13).
read more

Enthusiasm Drives Copper's Comeback WSJ [Bullish for the Zambia Kwacha]
Copper's 17% gain since July 8 reflects a marked change in sentiment
among metals traders and an increased optimism that the world's
economy may not be in a protracted slump.

Since its December low of $1.2475 per pound, front-month copper has
more than doubled, hitting $2.5290 a pound Friday on the Comex
division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. July copper, which is
currently the front month, fell 0.2 cent to settle at $2.5170 on


Copper is very much the c21st Industrial Metal of Choice.

China remains the 800 Pound Panda in the room.

And one surmises that it serves a twin sided function for them.
Diversification out of the Dollar and a commodity that they will
inevitably need for their continued Industrialisation.

Aly-Khan Satchu
Twitter alykhansatchu
read more

BRIC IPOs Show Region’s ‘Growing Power,’ Biggs Says Bloomberg
Emerging Markets
The world’s two biggest initial public offerings this year are from
China and Brazil, reflecting the “growing power” of the so-called BRIC
nations, said Barton Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis
Partners LP.

China State Construction Engineering Corp., the nation’s largest
housing contractor, yesterday raised 50.16 billion yuan ($7.3 billion)
in Shanghai in the largest IPO in 16 months. The Brazilian affiliate
of Visa Inc., known as VisaNet, took in 8.4 billion reais ($4.3
billion) in its Sao Paulo offering in June.

“No question, it shows the growing power of the BRICs,” Barton Biggs,
the former chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley, said in a
telephone interview from New York. “Clearly the BRICs are the big
growth areas of the world and will need a lot of foreign capital.”

The BRIC nations, which also include India and Russia, have the four
best performing stock markets in dollar terms this year among the
world’s 20 biggest, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index has soared 85 percent in dollars
while Brazil’s Bovespa Index rose 77 percent. India’s Sensitive Index,
or Sensex, climbed 61 percent and Russia’s RTS Index gained 60
percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in the U.S., by comparison,
is up 8.4 percent while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 7.5


The Tectonic Plates have shifted.
read more

A Comparison Sensex, China and Dow 6months Yahoo Finance
World Of Finance

There is a powerful message in that Tape.
read more

Nigeria at 23,924 Bloomberg Visual

It was sold down on quite low volume actually.
read more

$ Versus Rand INO
World Currencies
Last trade 7.70840 Change -0.02690 (-0.35%)


Target Price is 7 versus the Dollar.
read more

$ versus Zambia Kwacha [Copper refers]
World Currencies

I see Citi put out a Buy on the Kwacha over the weekend.

I expect it to produce capital appreciation and positive carry over a
12 month period.

Fund the trade in $s.
read more

SABMiller share price data Digital Look
Retail & Manufacturing
Share Price 1,341.00p Price Down
Change Today -11.00p
52 Week High 1,376.00p
52 Week Low 799.50p
Volume 3,915,758
Shares Issued 1,570.83m
Market Cap £21,065m
Beta 0.85

Year Ending Revenue Pre-tax EPS P/E PEG EPS
Grth. Div Yield
31-Mar-05 12,901.00 2,552.00 101.00p 13.5 0.4 +30% 38.00p 4.6%
31-Mar-06 15,307.00 2,453.00 109.10¢ 17.1 2.1 +8% 44.00¢ 2.4%
31-Mar-07 18,620.00 2,804.00 120.00¢ 15.3 1.5 +10% 50.00¢ 2.7%
31-Mar-08 21,410.00 3,264.00 143.10¢ 12.7 0.7 +19% 58.00¢ 3.2%
31-Mar-09 18,703.00 2,958.00 137.50¢ 12.4 n/a -4% 58.00¢ 3.4%


The share Price has displayed very low BETA.
read more

Tanzania has 54 mln pounds of uranium deposits: govt Reuters
Minerals, Oil & Energy
Tanzania has at least 53.9 million pounds of uranium oxide deposits
and expects to start mining some of that by 2011, the east Africa
nation's energy and mineral minister said.Gold dominates Tanzania's
mining sector -- which is Africa's third largest producer of the
precious metal -- but there is increasing interest in other metals
like uranium and nickel.Minister William Ngeleja said two companies --
Mantra Tanzania Limited, a unit of Australia's Mantra Resources, and
Uranex Tanzania Limited, a subsidiary of Australia's Uranex -- hoped
to start producing in two years.

"Mantra Tanzania Limited is expected to start mining uranium by 2012,
Uranex Tanzania Limited ... expects to start producing the mineral in
2011," Ngeleja said in a speech to parliament published in local media
on Sunday.

Mantra is working on a project in south Tanzania, which it says has an
inferred mineral resource of 35.9 million pounds of uranium oxide, and
Uranex's project in the centre has an estimated 6.7 million pounds of
the oxide.


Mineral exports earned $1.08 billion in 2008 from $983 million in the
previous year, he said.
read more

SABMiller seeks injunction on EABL Tanzania deal Reuters
Retail & Manufacturing
Brewing giant SABMiller said on Sunday that Kenya's East African
Breweries Limited's plan to end a deal with Tanzania Breweries Limited
and take a stake in a competitor was a breach of contract.SABMiller
owns a 52.83 percent stake in Tanzania Breweries Limited (TBL) and
EABL holds 20 percent.The Kenyan company said on Saturday it wanted to
cancel a pact with TBL and take a stake in Serengeti Breweries
Limited, Tanzania's second-largest brewer.

SABMiller said that was a breach of contract.

"TBL considers that EABL's actions represent a fundamental breach of
their undertakings to TBL and SABMiller, having negotiated a
competitive deal while remaining as a shareholder of TBL and a member
of TBL's board," SABMiller said.


EABL makes a move to own more of the regional Beer Real estate.
read more

Sappi Sells $797 Million in Dollar-, Euro-Denominated Junk Debt Bloomberg
Retail & Manufacturing
Sappi Ltd., the world’s largest maker of glossy paper, sold $797
million of five-year debt in dollars and euros, according to a person
familiar with the transaction.The Johannesburg-based company sold $300
million of 12 percent dollar bonds priced at 95.095 cents on the
dollar to yield 13.375 percent, said the person, who declined to be
identified.Sappi issued 350 million euros ($497 million) of 11.75
percent notes at 95.066 cents on the dollar to yield 13.125 percent,
50 million more than planned, the person said.

The senior secured notes are rated Ba2 by Moody’s Investors Service
and BB by Standard & Poor’s, the person said.


High Yield Market opens up.
read more

Unveiling Zanzibar's unhealed wounds BBC Yasmin Alibhai Brown
I often went to Zanzibar as a child, with my mother, who was born in
Dar es Salaam.We would take a crowded ferry and stay at a hostel for
poor women and their kids, who wanted a subsidised break by the
sea.The women in the local mosque provided lunch and we had a
wonderful time.
The island, a fabulous mix of Arab, African, Indian and Persian
cultures and peoples, was utterly unlike my racially-divided hometown,
Kampala, in Uganda.Then, one day, my mother told me about the
thousands of black slaves who had been captured in the hinterlands and
brought to the island to be sold.She took me to Bagamoyo, the slave
port on the mainland: the word means "lay down your heart".

That trade went on from the Seventh Century until - it is claimed -
the beginning of the 20th Century.Throughout early history,
enslavement was common around the world, and East Africa was just one
more lucrative location.

But here, the abomination went on longer than at any other time or place.


You should read Abdul Razak Gurnah's Paradise.
read more

Kenya Shilling versus the Dollar INO
World Currencies

Well behaved and targetting 73.00.
read more

NSE20 Visual
N.S.E General

Target 4,000 and Pull Backs are expected to be shallow.
read more

EABL share price data www.rich.co.ke
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
Par Value: 2/-
Closing Price: 148.00
Total Shares Issued: 790,774,336
Market Capitalization: 117,035M
EPS: 9.55
PE: 15.29

EABL has also given notice to terminate its existing brewing and
distribution agreement with Tanzania Breweries Limited, for the
manufacture and sale of its brands in Tanzania.

-Issues have arisen between EABL and Tanzania Breweries Limited which
are currently the subject of legal proceedings.

-Tanzania Breweries Limited currently remains the sole and exclusive
manufacturer and distributor of EABL products in Tanzania.

-SBL is Tanzania's second largest brewing operation and maker of the
popular Serengeti Lager.

-SBL currently accounts for 17% of the Tanzanian market by volume, and
has grown market share by 10% over the last three years. Serengeti
Lager, a premium priced product, is the flagship brand of SBL
accounting for 85% of its sales volume.

-As at Dec. 31, 2008, SBL's total gross assets were 83,438 million
Tanzanian Shillings (GBP38 million at current exchange rates).

-SBL will form an integral part of EABL's East African supply
footprint providing additional capacity to Kenya and Uganda.

The Shilling is at 76.75 versus the $.
read more

Nigeria's First Bank seeks to raise $3.4 bln bond Reuters
World Of Finance
The bank aims to use the bond issue to raise funds for infrastructure
projects such as the Lagos-Ibadan highway, one source said.

Analysts have welcomed plans for Nigeria's first corporate bond issue
since Access Bank's 13.5 billion naira convertible bond in October
read more

Kenyan monetary policy for above target growth-cbank Reuters
Kenyan Economy
Kenya's central bank expects growth in east Africa's biggest economy
to hit 3 percent this year and hopes its policies will lead to faster
rates of expansion, the governor said on Monday. Central Bank Governor
Njuguan Ndung'u told a news conference the government's 3 percent
growth targets for 2009 -- and the fiscal year ending in June 2010 --
were achievable, but they were a "worst case scenario".

"The best case scenario is very much dependent on the policy outcomes
that you propound and, secondly, on how the reception by the economy
and the market participants works. That is very very very critical.
That's very very important for us," he said.

"You cannot say that these are policies that only support up to 3
percent growth, and you sit back on that. What you want to do is to
have higher growth," he said.

The central bank cut its key lending rate last week for the fourth
time since December and lowered the cash reserve ratio for banks to
4.5 percent from 5 percent to inject liquidity into the economy.

The central bank is concerned that commercial bank lending rates
remain high despite the interest rate cuts and it wants to stimulate
growth through enhanced access to credit.

"We are going to see economic activity rising and obviously the banks
have to respond by providing that extra liquidity needed in the market
at an affordable price," said Ndung'u.

The Monetary Policy Committee said the annual average rate of
commercial bank lending to the private sector slowed to 17.2 percent
in the second quarter from 25.3 percent in the first three months of
the year.


He Has a Good Plan. Its a little 2002/2003 Redux but it worked it then.
read more

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural
Sasini closed 0.81% better at 6.20 and traded 42,200 shares. Williamson Tea traded a 1,000 shares at 75.00 +7.14%. Curiously its sister Company Kapchorua has underperformed the 56.25% post results bounce in Williamson. Kapchorua is very similar except for a higher BETA Factor versus Williamson. Neither Kakuzi or Rea Vipingo traded.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
SAFARICOM shares volume 7,210,200 total turnover 26,999,710 avg price 3.74 closing PRICE 3.70 -1.33% high price 3.80 low price 3.70 last price 3.70 Conclusions It seems that there 3G is currently the only Internet plugged into SEACOM. The downside risk is very limited and low volumes confirm there is a singular lack of material supply. CMC Holdings traded 3rd and closed 0.83% easier at 12.00 [12.00-12.30] and traded 665,400 shares worth 7.986m. Access Kenya was downgraded today by HSBC from 'Overweight' to 'Neutral'. I have not seen the report. Access Kenya was unchanged at 25.00 [25.00-25.50] and traded 44,400 shares. Kenya Airways was unchanged at 25.75 [25.25-26.25] and traded only 12,400 shares. Sellers have vanished as can be witnessed by the very low volumes. Nation rose 0.76% to close at 133.00 where 600 shares were traded. ScanGroup was unchanged at 25.25 [24.00-26.00] and traded 29,400 shares. TPSerena closed at 41.00 and traded 900 shares. CarGen did not trade. Standard did not trade.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
Equity Bank traded 2nd at the Bourse and closed unchanged at 16.95 [16.90-17.00] and traded 814,400 shares worth 13.853m. Investors are keenly awaiting 1st half results for the Banking Sector. KCB was unchanged at 22.75 [22.75-23.00] and traded 261,200 shares worth 5.951m. COOP Bank has a 2-1 Demand Supply imbalance and closed unchanged at 9.40 and was trading 9.55 +1.6% at the finale. COOP Bank traded 538,200 shares worth 5.079m. Barclays Bank was unchanged at 52.00 [52.00-53.00] with 35,100 shares traded. StanChart traded 1,700 shares and closed unchanged at 139.00. Centum eased 2.24% to close at 15.25 [15.25-16.75] with 25,400 shares changing hands. HFCK closed 3.625% better at 17.10 but was trading session highs 18.20 +9.97% at the close. HFCK traded 65,000 shares and Demand was 2.5x that figure. The 1st half results were muscular and confirmed the value of the low base effect for Equity Investors. CFC StanBic did not trade. DTB traded 500 shares at an unchanged 72.00. NBK was unchanged at 39.75 with 28,200 shares traded. NIC closed 25 cents easier at 38.75 [36.25-39.50] and traded 19,200 shares. Kenya Re firmed to close at 12.30 [12.10-12.40] and traded 68,300 shares. It trades at a PE of 6. Jubilee rose 0.81% to close at 125.00 where 1,100 shares were traded. PanAfric did not trade. Olympia Capital was unchanged at 6.65 on 1,900 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
EABL traded 4th and closed unchanged at 148.00 [147.00-149.00] and traded 47,200 shares worth 6.988m. EABL signalled over the weekend that it has given notice to terminate its brewing and Distribution Agreement with Tanzania Breweries [where SABMiller is a Big and Interested Party - They are none too happy and disputing the notice of termination] and EABL has an agreement to take up a sunstantial shareholding in Serengeti Beer Tanzania.EABL had been somewhat checkmated in its regional ambitions [Ethiopia was an on off saga] and this signals its ready to spring the Trap, which is a positive for Shareholders. The recent firmness in the price might well have been signalling the same. KenolKobil was marked down 5.17% to close at 55.00 and traded 500 shares. Total was marked down 1.62% to close at 30.25 and traded 8,300 shares. BAT rose 1.14% to close at 178.00 [177.00-179.00] and traded 31,600 shares worth 31,600 shares. The Running Yield has dipped below 10% but only marginally and supports. Mumias Sugar was marked down 1.61% to close at 6.10 [6.05-6.20] and traded 310,900 shares. There is an overhang of 1m shares to be cleared. KenGen was unchanged at 14.25 [14.15-14.35] and traded 63,300 shares. KPLC fell 1.4% to close at 141.00 on 700 shares traded. Cables eased 1.02% to close at 24.25 on 2,900 shares. Bamburi did not trade. ARM closed at 91.50 and traded 6,400 shares. PortLand did not trade. Crown Berger traded 1,400 shares at 26.50. Eveready traded 4,500 shares at an unchanged 2.70. Sameer traded 211,000 shares at an unchanged 5.00. Unga closed better at 11.25 on 1,700 shares.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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