|Thursday 08th of October 2009
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
Its all about the Dollar and Gold.
And the Deflation story as well.
I think I will re read Scott Fitzgerald's The Great Gatsby again Gutenberg
There was music from my neighbor's house through the summer nights. In
his blue gardens men and girls came and went like moths among the
whisperings and the champagne and the stars.
"I'm Gatsby," he said suddenly.
"What!" I exclaimed. "Oh, I beg your pardon."
"I thought you knew, old sport. I'm afraid I'm not a very good host."
He smiled understandingly--much more than understandingly. It was one
of those rare smiles with a quality of eternal reassurance in it, that
you may come across four or five times in life. It faced--or seemed to
face--the whole external world for an instant, and then concentrated
on YOU with an irresistible prejudice in your favor. It understood you
just so far as you wanted to be understood, believed in you as you
would like to believe in yourself and assured you that it had
precisely the impression of you that, at your best, you hoped to
America’s Limits New York Times
|The United States, like some heavyweight who’s taken one punch too
many, is still groggy from the money fever of gutted pension funds,
toxic securities and lunatic leverage.Americans are in a different
mental place. They’re paying down debt. They’re not hiring. They’ve
gotten reacquainted with risk. They’re going to have to survive
without Gourmet magazine.
Its nature, hard-wired to the new frontier, is alien to retraction.
But that’s the zeitgeist President Barack Obama has inherited. The
challenge he faces is how to manage reduced expectations.and wasn’t
Obama’s election precisely about restoring the mythology of that
possibility? — I found myself pondering this tension between the
idealism projected onto the president and the realism that is his
obligation: the tension between America’s exalted self-image and its
The beautiful wild put me in mind of Gatsby: “For a transitory
enchanted moment man must have held his breath in the presence of this
continent, compelled into an aesthetic contemplation he neither
understood nor desired, face to face for the last time in history with
something commensurate to his capacity for wonder.”
This is a relatively new language for an American president. The
notion of the United States as an exceptional power, a beacon for
mankind, has resided at the core of the heroic American narrative.
From Lincoln through Wilson to Reagan and Bush, the lexicon of
American-inspired redemption has been recurrent. American
exceptionalism has involved a messianic streak, the belief in a
country with a global calling to uplift.
America, forced by circumstance, is cashing out. It’s changing
perspective, adjusting to a 21st-century world of new power centers.
Obama’s new discourse was needed. But unless he can embody possibility
in retrenchment — “everything money can’t buy” — I doubt he can carry
the country with him.
A very lyrical piece. There was no one invested with the sense of
America and the Possible than Scott Fitzgerald's Jay Gatsby Esquire.
My Imagination remains captured by the Image of President Bush on the
AirCraft Carrier announcing to the Gods that The Mission was
Accomplished. It was practically Shakespearean in its Hubris. The
World does not stand still and we are here now.
The Political Conundrum for the President is the Gap between the
Campaign Vision, He invested his Supporters with a Gatsby sense of the
Possible and now in the Execution, we are seeing shades of Grey where
once it was all Black and White. There is a Gap and it has been quite
wide. That might well be the Nature of Politics but when your Rhetoric
has soared so high, its a little difficult finding your way back to
The President has played a difficult hand with a great deal of
Finesse. He was preemptive in moving the G7 to the G20 and he has been
showing the Europeans a clean pair of heels in regard to Voting Rights
in the IMF and the World Bank.
With Unemployment looking at 10% and the Chinese holding most of the
Overdraft, things are certainly less than optimal.
I was in Chicago and New York a few weeks ago and I noticed the sheer
summoning Power of the US. In Chicago, My Cab Driver was a Somali and
many other Types all who believed in the Country. Most of all, I
believe Americans are hardwired when it comes to Risk and Investing. A
Good Idea gets backed in a way that does not frankly happen elsewhere.
And that Entrepreneurial Spirit is worth a great deal.
Iran's New Flexibility: Can the U.S. Take Yes for an Answer? Time
Law & Politics
|President Barack Obama on October 1 gave Iran two weeks to open its
hitherto secret nuclear facility at Qom to inspection. Iran eventually
agreed to allow officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) to visit the site on Oct. 25. That 10-day gap between what
Obama demanded and what Iran was willing to concede symbolizes the
looming dilemma for the Administration in the Iran nuclear diplomacy —
even if a solution is achieved, it's unlikely to be the solution that
the West has been demanding.
What Iran did agree to was inspections at Qom, and an arrangement to
send low-enriched uranium to Russia to create fuel rods for its
medical research reactor in Tehran. The terms on which those
inspections, and of the deal for enrichment abroad, will be
implemented, remain to be seen.
Western demand that Iran cede the right to enrich its own uranium is a
more ambitious goal that doesn't have U.N. backing — because
enrichment under safeguards to prevent weaponization is a right of all
signatories to the Non Proliferation Treaty. When Iran insists it
won't negotiate over its "nuclear rights," that's a signal that it has
no intention of giving up enrichment. And the Iranians have so far
declined to discuss even a "freeze for freeze" proposal offered by the
West last summer, in which no further sanctions would be adopted if
Iran simply refrained from expanding its existing enrichment capacity.
I think it has Tipped with respect to the likelihood of ROLL BACK.
Restoring Afghanistan WSJ
Law & Politics
|Afghanistan is not quite ready for tourists. But when it is they will
stand here, at the edge of Kabul's Old City, preparing to explore the
area of a couple of square miles known as Asheqan wa Arefan. The AKTC
is best known for its restoration of Baghe-Babur, or Babur's Gardens,
now once again a popular Kabuli park with as many as 60,000 visitors
monthly in the summer. This high-profile project provided one million
man-days of labor and trained 100 skilled workers.
IM Pei wins Royal Gold Medal for Architecture The Guardian
|M Pei, the 92-year-old Chinese-American architect named yesterday as
the recipient of the 2010 Royal Gold Medal for Architecture.
There's the east wing of the National Gallery of Art in Washington,
with its magnificent deployment of daylight, the soaring, kite-like,
1,000-ft-high Bank of China in Hong Kong and, of course, France's
Pyramide du Louvre. Although not an architect associated with
controversy, the pyramid embroiled Pei in a battle over whether or not
this elegant project should be built. Many hated the idea of a new,
hi-tech entrance to the all-but-sacred Louvre: there were
demonstrations, volleys of angry words and near violence as a
significant number of Parisians fought to keep the steel-and-glass
pyramid at bay.
A Bold and Modern White House New York Times
|But the collection is also not without humor. Another contemporary
work chosen by the Obamas is a word painting by the California artist
Ed Ruscha. Called “I Think I’ll ... ” it deals with the subject of
indecision. The work depicts a brilliant red sunset against which Mr.
Ruscha has painted phrases like “Maybe ... Yes ... ” and “Maybe ... No
... ” and “On Second Thought.”
Baby Bundle: Japan's Cash Incentive for Parenthood WSJ
|Japan wants to set just the right mood to get its people to make more
babies. But forget dinner and candlelight: The government's plan
depends heavily on large amounts of cash.With a worried eye on
declining birth rates and an aging population, Japan's new leaders
propose offering new parents monthly payments totaling about $3,300 a
year for every new child until the age of 15. Other initiatives
include more state-supported day care, tuition waivers and other
efforts designed to make parenthood more appealing.
Should Promote Adoption, instead?
Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
|Gold sniffing fifth-straight winning session. Gold for December
delivery, the most actively-traded contract, was up $7 at $1,051.40 on
Globex after hitting a fresh intraday high of $1,052.50. On Wednesday
in New York, the contract gained $4.70, or 0.5%, to $1,044.40, after
reaching an intraday high of $1,049.70.
New dawn signalled for debt-ridden Dubai FT
|If the Cityscape property conference and trade show (pictured above)
sets the tone for the year ahead, then the future for real estate in
Dubai and beyond can only be described as flat – but that is in itself
an improvement after a year of precipitous declines.Empty, subdued
exhibition halls contrasted sharply with the exuberance of last year’s
event. Then Cityscape was infused with a buzzy, if unrealistic,
optimism, despite being held in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers
collapse.Dubai, while it has borne the brunt of the bad news because
of its high-profile marketing strategy during the growth years, has
been followed by the rest of the Gulf into a general recessionary
environment for the first time in more than a decade. Per capita gross
domestic product has fallen by an average of 17 per cent across the
six Gulf Co-operation Council states, according to HSBC.
The regional credit squeeze has been longer and more protracted than
initially feared, HSBC says. Credit growth plunged from 36 per cent in
2008 to less than 1.5 per cent this year, with three GCC states
witnessing contractions, reduced consumption and investment.Slow
government action has compounded the problem, the bank says. A
promised Kuwaiti stimulus package has yet to appear and the
long-delayed merger of Amlak and Tamweel, two troubled Dubai mortgage
companies, remains unresolved, further complicating any revival in the
Dubai property market.
“We believe it is Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Doha that are best
placed to catch the tailwind of global economic recovery,” the report
It will bounce but there is a little of Debris to be cleared first.
Dubai General Index Bloomberg Data
As You can see from the Visual [Link] Its pierced the Top Side of the
previous range, which is bullish. And Stock Markets are essentially
forward Looking so you would expect the Index to lead other Asset
QATAR DSM 20 Index Bloomberg Visual
|The DSM 20 Index is a capitalisation weighted index of the 20 most
highly capitalized and liquid companies traded on the Qatar Exchange
(formerly Doha Securities Market). The index was developed with a base
level of 1000 as of December 31, 1999. **BLOOMBERG START USING FREE
FLOAT SHARES ON 11/5/2008
All Time Highs were around 12,500, we remain someway away.
Nevertheless, Qatar sits on a Sea of Gas.
Essar CEO Considers Selling Unit Stakes in Expansion Bloomberg
Information & Communication Technology
|Essar Group, which runs India’s second-largest private refiner, may
sell stakes in its oil and shipping units as part of a global
expansion plan, said Prashant Ruia, the group’s chief executive
“There is enough headroom in these two companies so over the next
couple of years we will consider increasing the free float,” Ruia, 40,
said in an interview.
Refiners, steelmakers and telecom operators are expanding as national
stimulus packages help lift the global economy out of the deepest
recession since World War II. Essar is buying oil refineries, steel
plants, and coal and iron ore mines from Australia to Canada to
compete with rivals including Reliance Industries Ltd. and
ArcelorMittal.The company yesterday outbid Jindal Steel & Power Ltd.
for the Australian coal explorer Rocklands Richfield Ltd., upping its
offer price by 19 percent to A$144 million ($128 million),
Sydney-based Rocklands said in a statement.
To fund its plans, Essar Group may do something it hasn’t done since
1995, said Ruia, who has worked for more than two decades in the
business started by his father, Shashi, and uncle Ravi. The brothers,
whose first initials form the name, started the company in 1969.
“We would like to go to the market to raise funds when the time is
right,” he said, adding that the details haven’t been worked out.
“First there will be some activities in the companies that are already
listed.” There are no plans to sell shares in the holding company, he
The refiner’s shares have climbed 74 percent this year, tracking a 75
percent gain in the benchmark Sensitive Index of the Bombay Stock
Exchange. The shares rose as much as 2.2 percent to 151.95 rupees and
traded at 151.10 rupees as of 11:49 a.m. in Mumbai. Essar Shipping
Port & Logistics Ltd., 83.7 percent owned by the group, traded at
68.60 rupees, up 3.6 percent. The shares have risen more than 90
percent this year.
The group plans to raise as much as $1 billion in a bond sale that
began Oct. 5 and is scheduled to end Oct. 21.
Essar Group, which has annual revenue of $15 billion, runs telecom,
energy, power, real estate and steel businesses. The group, which sold
a controlling stake in Hutchison Essar Ltd. to U.K.’s Vodafone group
in 2007 for $11.1 billion, is also expanding its telecom business in
Uganda and Kenya.
Islamic-Bond Market on Verge of a Revival WSJ
World Of Finance
|Indonesia, Pakistan and South Korea are lining up to sell Islamic
bonds offshore in separate offerings that will add diversity to a
niche area of finance and spur the revival of a market that had a
severe setback during the global credit crisis.
The deals, likely to be initiated next year, could net the three
governments a total of $2 billion and would reflect a growing
recognition of sukuk as an alternative source of funds for governments
in Asia. Investors appear hungry for investments that comply with
Shariah, or Islamic law.
I did note that the Pakistan Government in a story carried by Dawn
yesterday, were indicating that they preferred the Eurobond Route to
the Sukuk one because they felt Sukuk Collateral requirements were
African Currencies to Gain in 2010, Absa Capital Says Bloomberg
|Major African currencies, except for Angola’s kwanza and Ghana’s cedi,
will strengthen against the dollar in 2010 as a rebound in the global
economy boosts prices of the region’s commodity exports, according to
Absa Capital.Zambia’s kwacha will lead the gains, appreciating 14
percent to 4,095 per dollar by end-2010 on an advance in copper, which
accounts for about 70 percent of the country’s exports, Absa predicts.
The currency has strengthened 3.2 percent in 2009 to 4,640 per dollar
yesterday after declining 19 percent in 2008. Tanzania’s shilling may
gain 8.1 percent as gold climbs. Crude prices have gained 60 percent
in 2009 while copper has doubled and gold, which accounts for 32
percent of Tanzania’s exports, according to Absa, reached a record
high. Economic growth in Africa is expected to rebound to 4 percent in
2010 from 1.7 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund said
The shilling of Tanzania will appreciate to 1,210 per dollar next
year, from 1,308.50 at yesterday’s close of trading. The currency lost
12 percent last year. Gold prices have increased almost 20 percent
since December. Uganda’s shilling may appreciate 6 percent in 2010 to
1,800 per dollar by year-end as investment in newly discovered oil
deposits in the east African nation boosts the currency, Markus
predicts. London-based Tullow Oil Plc said Oct. 2 it expects to
produce about 150,000 barrels of oil per day in Uganda within five
“There’s a lot of investment coming into Uganda because of the oil
story,” said Markus. “In a small frontier market that can have a big
influence on the currency.”
Nigeria’s naira has “stabilized” and is likely to end next year at
about 145 per dollar, 1.6 percent stronger than 147.25 yesterday. The
naira has lost a fifth of its value since November 2008 when the
central bank began limiting supplies of dollars to commercial lenders
following a slump in oil revenue.
The only African currency that faces “significant” depreciation is
Angola’s kwanza, which may decline “toward the black-market rate” of
100 per dollar by the end of this year, said Markus.
The kwanza slumped 9.1 percent to 85.08 per dollar through yesterday
after an Oct. 2 decision by the central bank to abandon the currency’s
peg due to a drop in oil earnings. Oil prices are still down 52
percent from their record reached in July last year.
An Africa Basket Carry Trade looks real attractive.
Zambia Kwacha versus The Dollar INO 1 Year Chart
|Last trade 4624.3 Change -5.8 (-0.13%)
I did go on about this when we were above 5,000 ad Infinitum. I remain
bullish on the Carry Trade. The Carry is very high and handsome with
Zambian T Bills paying a very handsome rate and I do fee the currency
will appreciate towards 4,000.
MTV Africa surpasses 2010 viewer target by 20 pct Reuters
|MTV Networks Africa, a unit of Viacom (VIA.N: Quote), has already
exceeded its 2010 audience forecast by 20 percent, thanks to a
two-pronged distribution approach, its head said on Wednesday.
MTV Base, launched in February 2005, has 90 million viewers across
Sub-Saharan Africa on both satellite and terrestrial platforms, well
ahead of the company's initial forecast of 75 million viewers by 2010.
"In the first couple of years, we broke even. We want to have more
distribution than any other MTV (channel) around the world," said
General Manager Alex Okosi.
He said the channel, which is primarily distributed through DSTV, the
satellite pay-TV arm of South Africa's Naspers (NPNJn.J: Quote),
derived its revenue from advertising, sponsorships and distribution
It is also distributed through syndication deals with local TV
stations in Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda.
"Africa represents a new exciting market where a lot of things are
growing. We are willing to take the risk involved but we will also be
in a position to benefit from the reward," he said.
Okosi said his team would soon turn its attention to the Kenyan market
after spending this year strengthening its Nigeria office through more
hiring of staff.
"We are now looking at finding digital media distributions and
revenues," said Okosi, who was born in Nigeria and grew up in the
Foreign investors are taking a second look at the African continent,
and not just in the traditional sectors like mining and oil, Okosi
"The story of doom and gloom is evaporating. People are recognising
that for them to really capture the emerging markets, Africa needs to
be part of their mix,"
Annan backs Kenya riot tribunals BBC [He is exquisitely smooth and silky]
Law & Politics
|Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan says the leaders of Kenya's
post-election violence should face trial.The key perpetrators are to
be tried at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, but Mr
Annan said it was vital that others were tried in Kenya. At the end of
his three-day visit to Kenya, Mr Annan said the government had assured
him it would collaborate with the ICC.But he said he also supported
the establishment of a local Truth and Reconciliation Commission.
"It is not either a local tribunal or the International Criminal
Court. It is both. Both are needed," he said.
He has Everyone where He wants them does Kofi Annan and all done with
a smile and a silky touch. The Question is does everything move
swimmingly to that End or is there a SPIKE Type risk?
Nigeria's UBA bank launches Kenyan operation Reuters
World Of Finance
|Nigeria's United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc launched its new Kenyan
operation on Wednesday, the bank said in a statement.
"We are poised to bring comprehensive, world class financial services
to the Kenyan market and make positive contributions to the country's
economy," Managing Director Manz Denga said.
UBA becomes the second west African bank to expand into a market that
analysts and bankers say still has plenty of potential for growth.
Pan-African group Ecobank Transnational Incorporated began working in
Kenya last year.
EcoBank now UBA The West Africans are certainly in Town.
KPLC’s pre-paid power meters to create new jobs Business Daily
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
|Electricity distributor Kenya Power and Lighting Company is looking
for agents to sell scratch cards for its pre-paid metering system in a
move that could create thousands of jobs countrywide.KPLC has
transferred 7,000 electricity consumers to the pre-paid meters and the
number is set to grow to 25,000 by the end of the year, rising to 250,
000 in the next 12 months.
It should lead to lower Default ratios and a higher Collection rate Profile.
|The NSE 20 rose 0.37 points to close at 2987.20.
The NASI slipped 0.10 points to close at 65.74.
Market Cap was 761.546b versus 762.672b.
The TED Spread between Bonds and Equities is now very wide. The market
is oversold but we need to see a bounce soon
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural
|Sasini Tea improved 0.79% to close at 6.40 [6.35-6.50] and traded 55,300 shares.
Rea Vipingo traded 3,000 shares +0.89% at 11.30.
Kakuzi traded a 1,000 shares at 34.00 3.82%. The PE is less than 3.
Thika Land Prices are spiking and their Estate could well be sold for
Residential Land, Like Sasini, for a sum many multiples of what they
are in the Balance Sheet for.
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
shares volume 6,559,200
total turnover 24,556,510
avg price 3.74 closing PRICE 3.70 +1.375%.
high price 3.80
low price 3.65
last price 3.75
Its a very well supported Price at these levels and outperforming the
Broader market which is weak. Demand remains twice the Supply
available, which is a positive headwind.
Kenya Airways bounced 3.6% to close at 21.50 and traded a 21.00-22.00
range and 38,800 shares. 19.00 area is a very long term support line
and I expect the Counter to hold above there and to improve as
Investors factor in the rolling off of Expensive Fuel Hedges.The Core
SSA Franchise remains valuable and its value has been drowned in a lot
of Fuel Hedge Noise.
Access Kenya closed lower at 19.40 [19.00-20.00] and traded 40,000
shares. The Forward is about 26.00.
CMC Holdings closed at 10.35 [10.25-10.50] and traded 130,500 shares.
Buyers are clustering in size just around 10.00.
Nation was unchanged at 118.00 and traded a 120.00 high and 6,700 shares.
ScanGroup closed 1% better at 25.25 and traded a wide 24.00-25.75
range and 36,100 shares.ndard traded
Standard traded 200 shares at an unchanged 38.25.
TPSerena was unchanged at 37.00 with 3,500 shares traded.
CARGEN did not trade.
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
|Equity Bank traded 3rd. Equity Bank closed 1.46% lower at 13.50
[13.50-13.90] and traded 1.662m shares worth 22.475m. Equity Bank
trades at a Forward of about 13.00 and Eric Ombok [My Friend at
Bloomberg] is telling me one of their Directors is talking of how they
will reduce their Transaction costs [currently 30/=] to below 5
shillings. This interview was in South Africa and I have yet to verify
KCB closed 0.5% lower at 19.65 and traded a 19.00-20.00 range. KCB
traded 125,400 shares and Demand has swelled at this price point which
is right bang at the low of the range. Demand is now 2x supply.
Barclays Bank edged 0.56% higher to close at 44.75 [44.00-45.75] and
traded 23,600 shares.
Stanchart was unchanged at 140.00 on 3,300 shares.
COOP Bank eased 1.2% to close at 8.30 [8.00-8.50] and traded 291,800 shares.
NIC retreated 3.1466% to close at 30.75 [30.00-32.00] and traded
71,600 shares worth 2.215m. Trades at a Forward of 9.00.
CFC StanBic closed unchanged at 53.00 and traded 4,000 shares.
DTB rallied 2.24% to close at 68.50 and traded a 70 intra day high and
HFCK dipped to close at 14.25 [14.05-14.40] and traded 33,900 shares.
15.00 is the key price pivot.
NBK slipped 2.92% to close at 33.25 and traded 3,800 shares.
Centum drifted 0.45% lower to close at 11.05 and traded 62,300 shares.
Kenya Re edged higher to close at 10.15 [10.05-10.45] and traded
41,100 shares. It was trading 10.25 at the close. The PE is 5.5, which
is inexpensive by most measures.
Jubilee did not trade.
PanAfric did not either.
Olympia Capital did not trade.
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
|Bamburi was the most active Counter at the Bourse today, Bamburi
traded 200,000 worth 31.6m shares all at 158.00 -1.86%. Bamburi trades
at a PE of 18.34 and this is a reasonable position and is it is
Bamburi share price data from www.rich.co.ke
Par Value: 5/-
Closing Price: 161.00
Total Shares Issued: 362,959,264
Market Capitalization: 58,436M
ARM traded 50,000 shares worth 4.65m all at 93.00 -0.53%.
PortLand traded 200 shares at 81.00 -1.22%.
EABL eased a shilling to close at 137.00 [135.00-139.00] and traded
57,300 shares worth 7.900m.
KENGEN closed lower at 11.20 and traded an intra day low of 10.70
-5.31%. KENGEN traded 155,600 shares. The share Price is out of
KPLC traded just 200 shares and closed 0.8% lower at 124.00.
Cables traded 10,900 shares at an unchanged 20.00.
Mumias Sugar firmed 0.775% to close at 6.60 [6.60-6.70] and traded
Total firmed 0.8625% to close at 29.25 with 2,400 shares traded.
KENOLKOBIL did not trade.
BAT firmed a shilling to close at 176.00 and traded an intra day high
of 192.00 [1,600 shares].
Crown Berger traded 100 shares at 24.50.
Eveready closed lower at 2.50 and traded 99,800 shares.
Sameer was marked down 3% to close at 4.85 on 8,800 shares.
Unga slipped 1.28% to close at 7.70 and traded 2,400 shares.