|Friday 13th of November 2009
|www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
I thank Larry Madowo for the invitation onto his KTN LIVE business Program.
Gold remains headed to 1200.00.
Look again at the Long Gold short Crude.
Safaricom is in a low Beta uptrend towards 5.00.
The Little one has been off school and today she insisted on going.
She has a ever widening Circle of Friends and Kai is her Favourite.
She lives in our Compound and her Father is from Israel and working on
the roads and has a great insight into Security and the like,
actually. They are very best Friends but prone to the odd and very
serious falling out. Its very amusing to come home and hear her recite
Pakistan Spy Agency Bombed, 7 Dead WSJ
Law & Politics
|A suicide car bomb devastated Pakistan's main spy agency building in
the northwest Friday, killing at least 7 people and striking at the
heart of the institution overseeing much of the country's anti-terror
The Enemy seems to be able to strike at the very Jugular Vein, the
very Foundations of the State at will. It seems to me the definition
of Asymettric risk is the Pakistan Nuclear Arsenal.
Top migration destinations More huddled masses? Economist
|MANY people would like to up sticks and move somewhere better. But
according to new Gallup polling data gathered over the last three
years, 16% of adults—or some 700m people—in over 130 countries say
they would like to start a new life abroad. The most popular
destinations specified are wealthy Western countries, though Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also attractive. If everyone
got their wish, America's population would swell by 165m while Canada,
Britain and France would each gain 45m new migrants. Those in African
countries are keenest to leave, whereas Asian respondents were
happiest where they were.
Playboy Said to Be in Talks to Sell Itself to Iconix Bloomberg
|Playboy Enterprises Inc., the men’s magazine publisher, is in talks
to sell itself to Iconix Brand Group Inc., according to two people
close to the situation. Playboy’s stock jumped 42 percent.
Iconix, the owner of the Candie’s and London Fog clothing brands, has
looked at Chicago-based Playboy’s finances, said one of the people,
who declined to be identified because the talks aren’t public. The
discussions may not lead to a transaction, the person said.
Playboy’s market value had dropped to about $100 million before today
as circulation plunged at the namesake magazine Hugh Hefner started in
December 1953 with photos of Marilyn Monroe. Iconix Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer Neil Cole is looking for acquisitions to add more
brands that the New York- based company can license to retailers and
Paper promises, golden hordes Buttonwood The Economist
|TWO hundred metric tonnes of gold would occupy a cube of a little more
than two metres on a side; it would fit into a small bedroom. But
India’s purchase of that volume of gold from the IMF last month has
had an outsize impact on the markets, helping push the price well
above $1,100 a troy ounce.For bullion bulls, the implication is clear:
central banks no longer trust the creditworthiness of other
governments. And if they have lost confidence, private investors
should do the same. The next step in this chain of reasoning is to
assume a stampede (or at least a quick trot) by other central banks
into holding the yellow metal. Gluskin Sheff, a Canadian
asset-management firm, suggests that if China followed India’s lead,
bullion could hit $1,400 an ounce.
This column has argued that the current system is unsustainable.
Debtor countries like America and Britain have huge fiscal deficits,
but retain at the same time the ability to depreciate their currencies
and offer near-zero interest rates on their short-term debt. This does
not look like a good deal for creditors.
Developed-country governments have attempted to control bond yields
through quantitative easing and to support stockmarkets through
ultra-low interest rates. But they cannot support their currencies as
well without risking problems in the bond and equity markets. Gold’s
surge may indicate that investors fear the next stage of the crisis
will occur in the foreign-exchange markets.
The Developed World has read from the same Play Book for as long as I
can recall. It is the Greenspan script of a Massive Flood of Free
Liquidity or near enough. The Pillar of this Strategy previously was
the Ubiquity of the Dollar. The Dollar was the Financial Architecture.
Look back at the Mexico TesoBono crisis of 1994 and You see a very
This time around, We are in a very different Landscape. Current
allocation into the Dollar [of new Money] is 33% versus a reserves
Profile of over 60%. The Question this time around is Can we return to
what was before. I do not think so. We are watching the World move
from a Monolithic Dollar dominated World to a Multi Polar one.
The Stop Loss drive into the Dollar last year might be repeated but
its violence will diminish over time. This is a Game Changer.
Gold is also signalling we have overdosed the Patient. We have doused
the markets and the Banks with Free Money. Gold is proving an
attractive insurance against the risk of a very disorderly exit.
China only has a 2% reserves Allocation in Gold. I would have thought
its a racing certainty that percentage is not going lower.
Live Crude Oil chart 76.88 Last1 month low
Minerals, Oil & Energy
|Petroleum supplies increased by 1.76 million barrels in the past week,
according to fresh data from the Energy Information Administration.
Analysts polled by Platts expected a buildup of 1 million
barrels.Crude-oil futures sank 3% Thursday, retreating as government
data showed weak demand and higher imports pushed up U.S. inventories
and as a stronger dollar weighed on dollar-denominated oil prices. On
the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for December delivery fell
$2.34 to end at $76.94 a barrel.
I think it should be at $40.00. I still like the Long Gold short Crude Trade.
Regional diplomacy and Zimbabwe When patience finally runs out Economist
Law & Politics
|AT LAST the Southern African Development Community (SADC), an
influential club of 15 countries that has overseen the regional
diplomacy intended to solve Zimbabwe’s troubles, is showing signs that
it may be prepared to squeeze President Robert Mugabe a bit harder. As
the supposed guarantor of a power-sharing pact between Mr Mugabe and
Morgan Tsvangirai, the former opposition leader, SADC has—after months
of dithering—ordered all “outstanding issues” to be settled by
December 5th. As a result, Mr Tsvangirai has agreed to end a
three-week boycott of the unity government by members of his Movement
for Democratic Change (MDC).Ever since the coalition government was
set up in February, Mr Mugabe has flouted most of the pact’s main
provisions with impunity. In some respects, matters have been getting
worse. The persecution and arrest of political opponents, trade
unionists and student leaders have increased. So has violence against
the dwindling band of white farmers who refuse to be chased off their
property. Broadcasting and the daily press, still firmly in the hands
of Mr Mugabe’s Zanu-PF, smear Mr Tsvangirai and the MDC incessantly,
while independent newspapers have yet to be allowed to start printing
Mr Tsvangirai sounds chuffed. He is particularly pleased that SADC has
appointed South Africa’s president, Jacob Zuma, formally to
“facilitate” Zimbabwe’s power-sharing in place of his predecessor,
Thabo Mbeki, whom the MDC loathed for what it considered his gross
bias in Mr Mugabe’s favour
Morgan Tsvangirai has indeed played a very deft and intelligent hand
in a very difficult set of circumstances. He has certainly
outperformed my expectations. I might be wrong but I feel he
established a genuine personal rapport with President Mugabe and he
did say words to that effect and I think the Catalyst for that was the
unfortunate passing away of his Wife.
I sense the problem is not with the Emperor [Mugabe] but with the
Court. I would have thought Mugabe would be overweight the opportunity
to depart gracefully, a neat exit, if you will. I surmise It is the
Die Hard ZANUPF Recalcitrants [whom Tsvangirai cannot give an escape
route and who probably fear the hot breath of the ICC somewhere down
the road] who are obstructing and seeking to sink the Coalition and
are playing some very hard ball, which is probably all that they know.
I also feel that maybe Zuma and SADC if they have the will, can tip
the balance in favour of Tsvangirai. That seems to be what he is
South African Banks Downgraded by Moody’s, Business Report Says Bloomberg
World Of Finance
|South Africa’s five biggest banks had their financial strength ratings
downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service, Business Report said, citing
Mardig Haladjian, Moody’s general manager of financial institutions.
The downgrading of Absa Group Ltd., FirstRand Ltd., Investec Ltd.,
Nedbank Ltd. and Standard Bank Group Ltd. reflected a “slowdown in
business growth and more challenging funding conditions,” Moody’s
said, according to the Johannesburg-based daily paper.
South African banks have been resilient to the global crisis “but
weakening macroeconomic conditions, including an estimated gross
domestic product contraction in 2009 of 2 percent, is exerting
additional pressure on the banking sector’s financial fundamentals,”
Haladjian said, the newspaper reported.
Hope for Zanzibar Taking the spice out of politics The Economist
Law & Politics
|With messy Kenya and chaotic Congo across the border, and lawless
Somalia just up the coast to the north, Tanzania is now viewed in the
West as a regional haven of calm in a turbulent neighbourhood.But
there has been a big blot on Tanzania’s record over the years:
Zanzibar. The last three elections on the offshore islands that
comprise the territory—Pemba and Zanzibar itself—have been
increasingly violent and disputed. The opposition Civic United Front
(CUF) claims that the elections of 1995, 2000 and 2005 were all stolen
by the local branch of Tanzania’s ruling Party of the Revolution,
better known by its Swahili initials, CCM.
Anxiety about next year’s elections on the islands has been rising.
Angry and frustrated CUF militants may react even more fiercely if
their party loses yet again. But two factors are pushing the sides
towards reconciliation: the prospect of oil and the spectre of
Zanzibar already enjoys a large degree of political autonomy from the
mainland within the union of Tanzania (born of Tanganyika and Zanzibar
coming together in 1964, soon after independence). It has its own
parliament, president and anthem. The opposition CUF does not demand
secession but wants the islanders to run their own economy. Zanzibar,
they complain, always gets a worse deal in terms of aid and investment
from abroad. The CUF people say that, despite the popularity of
Zanzibar’s ritzy hotels, 70% of the islanders live on no more than $1
Zanzibar is an extraordinary Place with a deep Civilisation and a
wonderful mix of Arab and Swahili Culture. Many of its most Famous
Sons are far away and the Author Abdulrazah Gurnah [Read Paradise if
you want to get to the very heart of Zanzibari culture] have been
exiled or forced away. The Tanzanian State has been aggressive in
asserting its Unitary Status and at times brutally so.
Kikwete has tapped into tremendous International Good Will and can
catapault himself to another Level entirely by taking a progressive
approach to the Island. Give them some space, make a fairer
distribution of the Spolis and it might well once more regain its
Place that it owned 100 Years Ago.
Its a unique opportunity for President Kikwete to reset the clock and
win himself Plaudits doing it and put it on the Path of Prosperity. In
some ways Dubai has become [before the Debacle] what Zanzibar could
Zanzibar Old Town Google Image Search
Kenya's Co-op bank Q3 pretax profit up 10 pct Reuters
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
|Kenya's Co-operative Bank said on Friday third-quarter pretax profits
rose by 10 percent to 2.85 billion Kenya shillings.The bank, Kenya's
fourth largest by assets, posted a pretax profit of 2.59 billion
shillings in the same July-September period a year ago.In an unaudited
statement published in newspapers, the bank said its total assets
increased by 26 percent to 98.78 billion shillings.Customer deposits
jumped by 18 percent to 76.63 billion shillings, while the bank's
holdings of Kenyan government securities increased by 57 percent to
14.24 billion.Net interest income rose to 4.9 billion shillings from
3.87 billion shillings in the similar period a year before, the bank
The bank listed on the Nairobi Stock Exchange last December. It was
founded in 1965 as a bank for cooperative societies -- which have a
two-thirds stake in the bank.
The run rate has slowed from the 6 month marker.
Nigeria’s Guaranty Trust Plans $1.3 Billion Bond Sale Next Week Bloomberg
World Of Finance
|Nigeria’s Guaranty Trust Bank Plc plans to start selling a 200 billion
naira ($1.3 billion) bond next week to boost its capital available for
loans, according to its asset management arm, and lead arranger of the
The Lagos-based bank aims to raise as much as 100 billion naira when
it begins auctioning the first tranche of the five year securities on
Nov. 19, David Alao, a member of the team arranging the sale at GTB
Asset Management, said by telephone. The securities will be offered at
an “indicative coupon” of between 12 and 13 percent payable
semi-annually, with the auction scheduled to end on Nov. 26, Alao
“GTB is issuing the bond to help fund infrastructure projects,” said
Alao. “Nigeria is behind on its infrastructure needs and we require
quite a bit of capital to finance such projects.”
|The Bourse has turned Bullish and the outsize Trading confirms its
depth and muscularity. Today Equity [22.85m shares] and KENOL [4.3261%
of the issued shares] dominated Trading. However, many shares have
The Official Closing Data is delayed but we have closed a good deal higher.
Shares worth 694.072m were traded and there is a Powerful Under the
Radar Appetite for Kenya Paper.
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural
|Sasini Tea rose a further 3.27% to close at 7.90 and traded a session
high of 8.25 +7.84% and traded 153,500 shares.Sasini has rallied near
enough 33% in 5 weeks and trades on a Trailing PE of 2.
Kapchorua Tea traded 5,000 shares all at 88.00 +10.00% and was the
biggest gainer on the day.
Williamson Tea bucked the trend and traded 25,300 shares all at 86.00 -1.71%.
Do Go here and check their Valuations
Tea Shares are completely out of whack. On a PE basis India Tea Shares
trade on a PE of 20.00. Here they are trading between 2-5. The most
expensive Tea share is trading at a 75% discount to India, which is as
absurd as it gets and we could witness a very sharp rerating.
Rea Vipingo traded 1,600 shares all at 11.50 -2.13%.
Kakuzi did not trade.
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
shares volume 2,185,300
total turnover 8,928,130
avg price 4.09 CLOSING price 4.05 Unchanged
high price 4.15
low price 4.05
last price 4.10
Safaricom traded an intraday high 4.15 and closed again at a 6 month
high. It is extending higher. Demand at the Finish line was 13m+
shares, there was less than a million shares for sale.
I have an equilibrium price of 5.00. Safaricom traded 4th overall.
Kenya Airways rose 3.8466% to close at 27.00 and was trading at 27.75
+6.73% into the Finish Line. Investors are looking through the noise
and it has rebounded just under 30% in 5 weeks. Kenya Airways traded
47,200 shares and and that was all that was available.
Kenya Airways share price Graphs and latest results www.rich.co.ke
CMC Holdings traded 3rd and closed 1.933% lower at 10.15 and traded
901,300 shares worth 9.152m.
Access Kenya firmed 1.19% to close at 21.25 and traded session highs
of 22.00 +4.76%. 86,400 shares were traded and Demand was 3x that
Nation was unchanged at 124.00 and traded 33,300 shares.
Standard did not trade.
ScanGroup was unchanged at 24.75 and traded 5,100 shares.
TPSerena traded 2,000 shares all at 40.00 -1.23%.
CARGEN did not trade.
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
|Equity Bank was the most active Counter at the Bourse. Equity Bank
traded a 14.00-14.30 range and closed 1.7833% firmer at 14.25. Equity
Bank traded a chunky 22.855m shares [0.6172% of the issued shares]
worth 326.733m, which was 47.08% of the total turnover at the Bourse.
Equity Bank have signalled a return to growth by Year End [my Model
has between +15-20%] and Investors are picking up Supply as witnessed
by todays very Big Ticket.
Equity Bank share price data and Graphs from www.rich.co.ke
Par Value: 0.50/-
Closing Price: 14.00
Total Shares Issued: 3,702,777,088
Market Capitalization: 51,839M
COOP Bank reported results at +10% 9 months to September. COOP Bank
traded an 8.65-8.95 range and closed 0.57% better at 8.80. COOP Bank
traded 259,300 shares. The shares sold at the IPO stage were very well
distributed going by the number of transactions that are conducted on
a daily basis.
COOP Bank share price and graphs from www.rich.co.ke
Par Value: 1.00
Closing Price: 8.75
Total Shares Issued: 3,492,369,920
Market Capitalization: 30,558M
KCB edged 1.23% lower and closed at 20.00. KCB traded a 20.00-20.50
and 247,100 shares. KCB trades a 9.03 Forward and yields 4.94%.
Barclays Bank was unchanged at 44.00 and traded 30,700 shares.
Barclays trades on a 9.6 Forward [thats at the 6 month point] and
Stanchart eased 0.68% and closed at 146.00 and traded 6,800 shares.
Stanchart accelerated earnings at a 41% run rate through the 3rd
Quarter and was the Outperformer results wise this Year. Stanchart
trades on an 8.5 Forward and yield 6.80% some way higher than its
Peers. Shares are well held and volumes tend to be thinnest here and
hence the slow speed of the adjustment in the price. To wit Stanchart
traded 3,800 shares.
Centum rose 2.3933% to close at 12.85 and traded a 12.50-13.00 range
and 210,900 shares.
CFC StanBic traded 100 shares at 49.00 -1.01%.
DTB was unchanged at 68.50 and traded 1,400 shares.
HFCK rose 5 cents to close at 14.55 and traded 10,000 shares. Demand
was for 174,000 shares.
NBK closed 1.5% lower at 33.00 and traded 5,200 shares.
NIC eased 1.72% to close at 28.50 and traded 41,800 shares.
Kenya Re firmed 0.98% and closed at 10.30 and traded a 10.40 high and
23,700 shares. Demand has swelled to 10x that amount.
Jubilee bounced 3.64% to close at 114.00 and traded 13,600 shares.
Jubilee carries its positions at cost and hence there is tremendous
Value in the Balance Sheet, in most instances.
PanAfric traded 1100 shares at 46.00 and unchanged.
Olympia Capital rallied 3.17% to close at 6.50 and traded 6,400 shares.
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
|KENOLKOBIL was the 2nd most active Counter at the Bourse. KENOLKOBIL
closed 3.52% lower at 48.00 and traded a 46.00-49.50 range and traded
6.367m shares [4.3261% of the Issued shares] worth 305.629m which was
44.12% of the Total turnover.
KENOLKOBIL share price and graphs from www.rich.co.ke
Par Value: 0.50/-
Closing Price: 49.75
Total Shares Issued: 147,176,128
Market Capitalization: 7,322M
Total was unchanged at 29.00 and traded 4,300 shares.
The KENGEN Bond traded at 100.48 on the ATS System. The share price
closed 0.435% lighter at 11.40 and traded 132,700 shares.
KPLC closed 2.16% lower at 136.00 and traded 21,600 shares. KPLC is
trading on a PE of less than 4.00.
Cables closed at 19.30 and traded 25,700 shares.
CARBACID traded an extraordinary range of 200.00-285.00 and closed at
240.00. CARBACID traded 12,000 shares.
BOC Gases did not trade.
Mumias Sugar improved 1.57% to close at 6.45 and traded a 6.40-6.60
range and 844,900 shares. Mumias trades on a PE of 6.00 which is lower
than all other Sugar Companies I can find.
BAT traded 6,900 shares all at 175.00. The Yield here is 9.71%
EABL improved 0.71% to close at 142.00 and traded 2,600 shares.
ARM edged lower to close at 97.50 and traded a 95.00-98.00 range and
Bamburi did not trade.
Portland did not either.
Crown Berger did not trade.
Eveready was marked down 1.96% to close at 2.50 and traded 24,700 shares.
Sameer traded 40,800 shares all at 5.00 +1.01%.
Unga was unchanged at 8.40 and traded 2,400 shares.