|Thursday 01st of April 2010
I do wish you all an excellent Break and blessed silence from my
Rantings well until Tuesday.
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
Tell Tale Signs Spotting Corporate Malfeasance The Star
In this Piece I allude to REPO 105s which were the subject of a 2,200
Page Report released recently about how Lehman used this Instrument to
under report their Balance Sheet around Quarter Ends. My Point was
that I was doing Repo 105s in the 1990s with Lehman except then they
were called Index Linked Swaps. What I did not mention was the time
that I interviewed with Lehman in New York and at the end of the day
finally reached Fuld's Inner Sanctum and here is my Account. As You
can surmise Repo was a key element of Lehman's survival all those
Years and in the early 2000s, I was flown to New York by Lehman. As
The day progressed, all Fuld's Lieutenants told me of the enormous
Fortunes they had made and how I was now finally getting an
opportunity in the Premier League.
On quite a few Occasions
Aly-Khan So How Much are You worth?
Under my breath Probably not nearly enough.
I get to Fuld. Its just the two of us. He says You see this Room, this
is the Inner Sanctum. We print money here. Sort of expansive. The End
of the Day. This is a Golden Inner Circle. My people tell me you have
the Brains. Do you have the Ambition?
I turned him down and the reason was I ran Repo Desks and I knew they
were always just a Hop Skip and Jump away from a Blow Up.
Stay Long the Frontier and Africa Equities.
I am of course from Mombasa.
The Port of Mombasa Circa 1955 Getty Images
circa 1955: The old Harbour at Mombasa at the height of the Dhow
season. (Photo by Keystone/Getty Images)
Mombasa LightHouse Postcard
China 'to discuss Iran sanctions' AlJazeera
Law & Politics
|The United States says China has agreed to join discussions on
possible new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme.
US officials said on Wednesday that diplomats from the five permanent
members of the UN Security Council and Germany, known as the "P5+1"
group, were unified on the issue of Iran sanctions.
The announcement comes as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator visits China
to discuss the latest developments.
China has until now been opposed to new sanctions, with senior Chinese
diplomats to the UN repeatedly saying diplomacy was their preferred
Just this week, Qin Gang, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, said
in Beijing that "China opposes Iran possessing nuclear weapons, but at
the same time we believe that, as a sovereign state, Iran has the
right to peacefully develop nuclear energy".
Barack Obama, the US president, said on Tuesday that he hoped to have
Iran sanctions in place within weeks.
In 2009 Iran was the third-biggest foreign supplier of crude oil to
China, which is the world's second-biggest consumer of oil after the
I tend to the View that it will seriously impair China's Bona Fides
with its allies if they back down on Iran.
Iran Opposition Lacks Resolve to Oust Regime, Says Ex-President Bloomberg
Law & Politics
|Iran’s opposition movement lacks the resolve and mass support needed
to overthrow the country’s clerical regime, said Abolhassan Bani-Sadr,
the Islamic republic’s first president.In 1979, when Bani-Sadr helped
lead the revolution that overthrew the Shah, “the young generation was
determined to get rid of the monarchy,” the former president said in
an interview at his home in Versailles, France. “Today’s opposition
supporters are hesitant and confused as to what they are fighting
for,” he said. “They are caught between what they desire and what they
think is attainable.”
A key difference, though, is that it “hasn’t taken over all the cities
and within cities some of the social classes have not joined,”
Bani-Sadr said, citing the limited participation of the working class
as an example.
Another problem for the opposition is that the demands of its
supporters have come to exceed what the movement’s leaders are capable
of delivering, Bani-Sadr said.
“If the regime was capable of being reformed, I would not be in exile,
former President Mohammad Khatami would have succeeded during his
time in office of bringing about a more open society, and this
electoral fraud would not have taken place,” he said.
The regime “benefits from a state of crisis,” and any sanctions should
instead target the funds of officials abroad, and the sale of military
equipment and technology that can be used to repress the opposition,
I believe President Bani Sadr has presented us with the most accurate
Analysis of the Situation.
Greece May Be Heading Back to ‘Square One’ on Aid as Bonds Fall Bloomberg
World Of Finance
|The yield on 10-year Greek government bonds has increased 24 basis
points to 6.522 percent since EU leaders agreed to the aid blueprint
on March 25. That’s the highest in a month and more than double the
rate paid by Germany. Seven-year bonds sold by Greece on March 29 fell
for a second day yesterday.
“What they were hoping for was to set up some sort of arrangement that
never has to be used,” said Phyllis Reed, head of bond research in
London at Kleinwort Benson, which manages about $32 billion. “The
markets have sniffed that out and it seems like we’re heading back to
The aid facility, a combination of IMF and EU bilateral loans, will
only be triggered if Greece runs out of fund-raising options. Greek
Prime Minister George Papandreou, who has to raise as much as 10.5
billion euros by the end of May, welcomed the plan last week as “very
Since then, the extra yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year
bonds instead of German equivalent has risen to 340 basis points,
compared with 305 points on March 26. The yield on the Greek security
yesterday rose 8 basis points to 6.522 percent.
“It’s supposed to be a joint EU-IMF thing, but it sounds like the IMF
have plans of their own,” said Reed. “There are still a lot of
Coalition of the Left deputy Dimitris Papadimoulis yesterday mocked
Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou for comparing aid to a
“loaded gun” that would threaten markets.
“The gun,” he said, “has proved to be a water-pistol.”
“Markets don’t believe that Greece will be able to see things
through,” said Razeen Sally, senior lecturer in international
political economy at the London School of Economics, in a telephone
Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
Dollar Index 81.06
Rand 7.291 Looks very perky This is higher than the rate prevailing
before the Rate Cut.
The dollar fell to a one-week low against the euro, paring its
first-quarter gains against the common currency to 6%. The greenback
also lost 0.8% against the pound and declined to a nearly two-month
low against the Swiss franc. The selloff after data showed an
unexpected drop in U.S. private-sector payrolls.
The dollar index which measures the greenback against a
trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, slipped to 81.062 from
81.513 late Tuesday.Still, the benchmark has risen 4% for the quarter
and 0.8% for March.
Live Crude Oil chart 83.41 last
Minerals, Oil & Energy
|Oil futures Wednesday capped the last day of an upbeat month and
quarter with a rise above $83 a barrel, while natural gas extended
double-digit losses for the same periods.Crude oil for May delivery
closed Wednesday's floor session with a gain of $1.39, or 1.7%, at
$83.76 a barrel, as a weaker dollar helped offset a gain in crude-oil
inventories that exceeded the American Petroleum Institute's
projections the prior evening.
Oil has gained 5.1% in March and 5.5% for the quarter, its
fifth-straight quarterly increase.
A cracking good breakfast as Waitrose stocks ostrich eggs for Easter The Times
Food, Climate & Agriculture
|Ostrich eggs — each big enough to make an omelette for 15 people — are
to appear in supermarkets in time for Easter. But you will have to get
up early to make breakfast if you want to eat them in their shell as
they need boiling for up to an hour and a half.
Waitrose will stock the eggs, which are now in season, in 31 branches
from next week, after sales increased by 573 per cent between 2008 and
2009. Each mild-flavoured egg, costing £18.99, is equivalent to 24 hen
eggs. They are laid by South African black ostriches on a farm in
Demand for pheasant, quail, duck and goose eggs has also increased,
with sales of goose eggs increasing by 101 per cent, Waitrose said.
The retailer will sell ostrich eggs in an extra 11 stores this year
and goose eggs in an additional 21 branches.
One ostrich egg, costing £18.99, is the equivalent to 24 hens eggs
Ukraine, Nigeria Beating BRICs as Mobius Says Rally Isn’t Over Bloomberg
|The MSCI Frontier Markets Index rose 11 percent this year, outpacing
the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 9 percentage points, the widest gap
since the second quarter of 2005. The gauge of shares from Ukraine to
Kenya and Vietnam trades for 1.5 times net assets, a 29 percent
discount to the MSCI emerging index, which is dominated by Brazil,
Russia, India and China.
“We may go into an era where the small markets are going to steal the
show,” said Antoine van Agtmael, who coined the term “emerging
markets” in 1981 and now oversees about $13 billion at Emerging
Markets Management LLC in Arlington, Virginia. “They haven’t been
fully discovered but are very interesting, quite attractively priced
and show a lot of promise.”
Ukraine’s PFTS index has climbed 64 percent this year, the best rally
among 93 stock benchmark measures.
I have had a supreme Conviction about the Frontier and its
outperformance and I believe the rally is nearer the Beginning than
the Middle or The End and especially in Africa.
Zain Full-Year 2009 Net Income Declines 39% to $675 Million Businessweek
Information & Communication Technology
|Zain, Kuwait’s biggest phone company, said full-year profit declined
39 percent as it remained affected by the fallout of the global
financial crisis.Net income in 2009 fell to 195 million dinars ($675
million), or 51 fils a share, from 322 million dinars, a year earlier,
Zain said in an e-mailed statement yesterday.
“Last year was the most difficult, not only for Zain group but for
everyone,” Zain Group Chairman Asaad al-Banwan said in the statement.
“The group’s companies were working under the pressure of the global
financial crisis, and a majority of markets were massively impacted by
the consequences of the crisis, especially the African markets.”
Foreign currency fluctuations cost the group 38 million dinars,
China’s Affluence Island NYT Slideshow
|The apartments - sweeping sea views, bathtubs on balconies, and sofas
wrapped in velvet - are being pre-sold for an average of $885 per
square foot, comparable to New York prices.
"People are coming with entire bags full of cash," said Raymond Hau,
general manager of the Sun Valley Golf Resort, which is building the
220 luxury villas.
Emperor’s Pearls Star in $167 Million Sotheby’s Hong Kong Sale Bloomberg
|The 18th-century necklace, which Sotheby’s says might have belonged to
the Emperor Yongzheng (reign: 1722-1735), is one of 2,400
lots.Typifying the big-spending Chinese is Shanghai investing tycoon
Liu Yiqian, who paid a record HK$85.8 million for a Qing Dynasty
imperial throne at Sotheby’s October auction in Hong Kong. His wife,
Wang Wei, also stood out for her bidding on contemporary paintings by
Chinese artists such as Liu Ye.
MSCI Frontier Market Index Bloomberg Visual 2010 +10.2601%
The MSCI frontier index’s 29 percent price-to-book discount to the
emerging gauge is more than double the average 14 percent since
Bloomberg began compiling the data in July 2008. The frontier gauge
yields 2.9 percent in dividends, compared with 2 percent for the MSCI
emerging index, Bloomberg data show.
The MSCI frontier gauge of companies with an average market value of
$2.1 billion trades at 10 times this year’s profit estimates, compared
with 13 times for the emerging index, where the average company has a
value of $8.7 billion. The MSCI frontier gauge gained 60 percent from
a 5 1/2-year low in March 2009.
Further Outperformance expected on the Frontier.
Botswana Economy Grew 7.2% in Fourth Quarter, Exits Recession Bloomberg
|Botswana’s economy exited recession in the final quarter of last year,
growing an annual 7.2 percent, as mining and agriculture expanded, the
country’s Central Statistics Office said.For 2009, gross domestic
product shrank 6 percent, the Gaborone-based office said in an
e-mailed statement today.The growth rate for 2008 was revised to 3.1
percent from 2.9 percent for 2008, and to 4.8 percent from 4.4 percent
for 2007, after the statistics office revised its methodology.
Thats a Muscular Rebound.
Botswana GABORONE INDEX Bloomberg Visual +3.259% 2010
Might well Trend higher towards 8,000.
Nigeria's new cabinet Signs of life A surprisingly brisk presidential broom The Economist
Law & Politics
|WHEN Goodluck Jonathan took over the presidency in February from the
ailing Umaru Yar’Adua, few believed he would even try to make much of
a difference before the next election, due next year. After all, he
had been a largely passive vice-president and before that an
unexceptional state governor. But there are early signs of unusual
Mr Jonathan was quick to assert his authority. On March 17th he
surprised many by firing all 42 cabinet ministers inherited from his
predecessor. He has since started submitting nominees for his own
team. The senate, which must give approval, began screening them on
“This cabinet will only ever be in a holding position, like an
aircraft that does not fly higher or lower but hovers in one place,”
says Bismarck Rewane, a financial analyst. “Its tenure is too short.”
The Nigerian Political Narrative has at times been so surreal as to
defy Belief and Understanding. A Self Evidently Incapacitated
President somewhere on the Presidential Grounds in a Mobile ICU, whose
door is guarded by his Wife Turai. The return in the dead of Night.
The Paroxysms of Incredible Violence. MEND. You could not make it up
even if you possessed the wildest Imagination. And Through this
GoodLuck has had to plot a Course. He had deployed a Strategy of
Stealth and Mission Creep until recently.
The Interesting thing to note is that the Nigerian Bourse has rallied
over 25% in 2010 against this Backdrop. One can only guess how the
Nigerian Financial Markets would respond to some decisive and
constructive Political Order.
I have a supreme conviction that Nigeria [and Africa] is embarked on a
one off Convergence with the outside World. That Convergence is quite
unstoppable and very bottoms up, essentially the Mobile Phone is the
I think we will find that it is the Politics that will have to play
catch up and Nigeria is counterintuitively and excellent Example of
How Political Risk in Africa is very different to what it is perceived
to be. The Resilience is actually remarkable.
Uganda oil A bonanza beckons Hope and peril for the Great Lakes Economist
Minerals, Oil & Energy
|A DETERMINED push by Western wildcatters and big oil companies from
fast-growing Asian economies such as those of China and Malaysia may
change the fortunes of several countries in remoter and trickier bits
of Africa once largely ignored by foreign investors. One of the most
spectacular recent finds has been in Uganda. The reserves of the
Albertine rift, which takes in the Ugandan and Congolese shores of
Lake Albert (see map), are said to need $10 billion for development.
All being well, Uganda will soon become a mid-sized producer,
alongside countries such as Mexico. Foreign investment in Uganda may
nearly double this year to $3 billion. The country expects to earn $2
billion a year from oil by 2015.
China is likely to be the biggest winner. Mr Museveni seems dazzled by
Chinese promises to help build an oil refinery and to help turn oil
into Ugandan-produced plastics and fertiliser. That may be bad news
for Uganda’s opposition, which wants to oust Mr Museveni in next
year’s election. And several jealous Western governments and companies
want to stall China’s advance into the Congo basin, with its vast
reserves of minerals and timber.
Limuru Tea reports full year Earnings EPS +216.90% share Price and Analysis www.rich.co.ke
|Par Value: 20/-
Closing Price: 325.00
Total Shares Issued: 1,200,000
Market Capitalization: 390M
Dec 2009 versus Dec 2008
Assets Balance Sheet 67.656m versus 47.516m
Turnover 91.13m versus 69.528m +31%
PAT 26.969m versus 8.466m +218.55%
EPS 22.5 versus 7.1 +216.9%
Dividend 7.5 versus 10.00
Company Produced 3,081,820 KGs of Green Leaf which was manufactured
into 710,867 KGs of Black Tea.
Crop Volumes in 1st Quarter 2010 have been much higher than 2009 - The
These Results confirm that Tea Companies are in the sweetest of sweet
Spots. Those Numbers and the Commentary confirm the story.
Now we can model Tea Earnings for 2009.
You might care to read The Farmers will Drive the Ferraris The Star March 1st
Kenya’s labour force output tumbles The Nation
|Kenya’s labour force productivity is dwindling due to both governance
and ethics issues. This is eroding the global competitiveness of the
country.The problems with the labour system such as poor workforce
ethics, restrictive labour regulations, policy instability and
inadequate education of staff are making worse a situation already
bogged down by corruption, inadequate infrastructure and access to
finance for those intending to venture into business here.According to
international management consultant Dr Joseph Prokopenko, staff
productivity is the main contributor to the competitiveness of an
economy though Kenya is lagging.
The Global Competitiveness index, (2009-2010) ranking places Kenya at
number 98 out of 133 countries. This is a drop from position 93 held
The positions are derived from publicly available data by the World
Economic Forum in partnership with research institutes and business
organisations in the countries covered by the report.Some of the
productivity factors used to determine the grades included flexibility
of wage setting, labour-employer co-operation, pay and productivity
relation, use of professional management and higher education training
in which Kenya was found to be doing poorly.
“A nation’s living standards is determined by the productivity of its
economy, which is measured by the value of goods and services produced
per unit of the nations human and capital resources,” said Mr
He was addressing CEOs of various local companies yesterday ahead of a
productivity conference at the Intercontinental Hotel.
The event is organised by the Federation of Kenyan Employers and the
National Economic and Social Council.
This is surely an interesting Subject and worthy of closer Study.
And I have a few thoughts. I smoke so I tend to have to exit the
Building and then come back And I meet so many Folks in the Corridors
conducting their own Business. I find that a Joke.
The NSE20 closed 12.90 points lower at 4060.03. The NASI rose 0.27 points to close at 84.70. Market Cap was 986.26b versus 983.11b. The Bourse has posted a 25% in the 1st Quarter and continues to build Strength.
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural
This Sector continues to see heightened Activity. Limuru Tea reported
Full Year Earnings +216% ahead of the Previous Year and signalled that
2010 was even better via a Production WindFall. I cannot recall a time
where 3 of the Top 5 Traded Companies were the Agriculturals.
Kakuzi was the 2nd most active Counter at the Bourse. Kakuzi traded
838,900 shares [4.2801% of the Company] worth 65.925m. Kakuzi trades
on a PE of 4.556.
Kakuzi share price data www.rich.co.ke +279.00% 12 months
Par Value: 5/-
Closing Price: 79.00
Total Shares Issued: 19,600,000
Market Capitalization: 1,548M
Williamson Tea was the 4th most active Counter at the Bourse.
Williamson Tea traded 133,100 shares [1.52% of the Company] worth
29.282m. Williamson Tea eased 0.45% to close at 220.00. Williamson Tea
made 24.18 First Half and this can only have accelerated 2nd Half. On
a Straight line Basis Williamson Tea trades on an implied Forward PE
at 4.54. As a Guide Indian Tea Companies trade on PEs of not less than
30.00 as a benchmark.
Williamson Tea share price data www.rich.co.ke +390.244% 12 months
Par Value: 5/-
Closing Price: 221.00
Total Shares Issued: 8,756,320
Market Capitalization: 1,935M
1st Half Williamson Tea made 24.18 AND Given the Trail that Limuru Tea
has just given us Full Year will be some way North of 50.00 Full Year
which implies a PE at this price of under 4.5.
Rea Vipingo was the 5th most Active Counter. Rea Vipingo was unchanged
at 21.50 but traded out the Session at 22.00 +2.33% session highs. Rea
Vipingo traded 1.2227m shares [2.0378% of the Company] worth 26.355m.
Rea Vipingo share price data from www.rich.co.ke +71.332% 12 months
Par Value: 5/-
Closing Price: 21.50
Total Shares Issued: 60,000,000
Market Capitalization: 1,290M
Limuru Tea traded 60,400 shares [5.033% of its issued shares] worth
19.63m and all at 325.00 and unchanged. Limuru Tea was the 1st Tea
Company to report 2009 Full Year and was up 216% and is the Benchmark
now for modelling Full Year Earnings for the Listed Tea Companies.
Eaagads firmed another 4.125% to close at 75.00 and traded 1,100 shares.
Sasini Tea rose 0.35% to close at 14.45 and traded 366,500 shares.
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
total turnover 38,545,996
avg price 5.52 CLOSING PRICE 5.50 -0.9%.
high price 5.60
low price 5.40
last price 5.55
shares volume 6,981,000
3rd Most Active Counter. Absolute Outsize Buyer parked at 5.50 who was
left looking for over 17m shares at the Finish Line. I think the Buyer
sets the Price by weekly Committee and hence we should expect an
Uplift next week.
Access Kenya firmed 1.23% to close at 20.50 and traded a 20.50-21.00
range and 1.194m [0.578% of the Issued shares] worth 24.775m.
TPS Serena closed 0.79% better at 64.00 and traded 65,000 shares. It
has rallied about 28% since it announced its results.
CMC Holdings rallied 2.50% to close at 12.30 and traded a 12.35
session high and 889,300 shares worth 10.959m.
CARGEN did not trade.
Kenya Airways retreated 1.67% to close at 59.00 and was lightly traded
with just 15,700 shares traded.
Nation eased 0.72% to close at 137.00 on 5,900 shares.
Standard closed higher at 39.75 and traded 3,500 shares.
ScanGroup gave back 2.75% to close at 26.50 and traded 39,200 shares.
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
There was Muscular Buy Side Interest in the Big Cap Banking Stocks today.
Equity Bank was the most active Counter at the Bourse. Equity Bank
firmed 0.9525% to close at 15.95 and was locked at 16.00 for most of
the session. Equity Bank traded 4.413m shares worth 70.556m. I gave
the Following comments to Reuters and I quote 'Equity Bank's
price-to-earnings ratio of 13.86 is looking inexpensive to some ahead
of an economic upswing,' says Aly Khan Satchu.
Equity Bank share price data and Full Year 2009 results www.rich.co.ke
Par Value: 0.50/-
Closing Price: 15.80
Total Shares Issued: 3,702,777,088
Market Capitalization: 58,504M
Barclays Bank improved 2.94% to close at 52.50 and was trading 54.00
+5.88% session highs into the close. Barclays traded 105,900 shares
but Demand was for 4x that Number.
KCB firmed 1.14% to close at 22.25 and traded a 21.75-22.75 range and
978,600 shares worth 21.847m. The near term Objective is 24.00 on the
COOP Bank closed unchanged at 10.00 and traded 542,900 shares. 10.00
is proving a solid Level.
StanChart firmed a shilling to close at 190.00 and traded a 193.00
high and 12,500 shares.
Centum drifted back 1.92% [after rising 20% post the RVR Shareholding
announcement] to close at 15.30 and traded 360,100 shares.
DTB was unchanged at 79.00 and traded 89,400 shares. It is on an
inexpensive PE of less than 10.00.
HFCK closed at 16.95 and traded a 16.50-17.50 range and 277,300 shares
NBK firmed 1.74% to close at 58.50 and traded 39,500 shares worth 2.313m.
NIC rebounded 3.08% to close at 33.50 and traded 19,900 shares.
CFC StanBic closed 2.5% better at 41.00 and traded 5,000 shares.
Kenya Re eased 0.74% to close at 13.40 and traded 781,400 shares worth 10.495m.
Jubilee Holdings traded 300 shares at 169.00 -1.17%.
PanAfroc traded a 100 shares at 51.00.
Olympia Capital closed at 8.25.
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
EABL firmed 1.8525% to close at 165.00 and was trading a 167.00 +3.09%
into the Finish Line. EABL traded 111,600 shares worth 18.495m. EABL
is trading at a 12 month High and pointed higher. EABL has strong Buy
Side Demand. 'This is a 52 week high and a bullish development on the
charts. The impasse in Tanzania with SABMiller has been squared off
and investors continue to react positively,' says Aly Khan Satchu
EABL share price data from www.rich.co.ke +53.828% 12 months
Par Value: 2/-
Closing Price: 162.00
Total Shares Issued: 790,774,336
Market Capitalization: 128,105M
Mumias Sugar closed at 10.45 -0.48% and traded 903,600 shares worth
9.473m with strong Buy Side Demand.
BAT was marked down 1.485 to close at 200.00 and traded 38,800 shares
KPLC was unchanged at 180.00 and traded 60,600 shares worth 10.908m.
KENGEN was unchanged at 15.00 and traded a 15.20 +1.33% session high
into the close. KENGEN traded 201,700 shares.
Cables closed at 21.75 and traded 9,700 shares.
East African Portland rallied 6.38% to close at 100.00 and traded 6,300 shares.
Bamburi traded 10,300 shares and closed at 186.00 -0.53%.
ARM was lowticked to close at 105.00 on 1,200 shares.
Sameer firmed 4.1712% to close at 9.90 and traded 418,900 shares.
KENOLKOBIL closed up a shilling at 78.00 and traded a session high of
84.50. KENOLKOBIL traded 19,400 shares.
Total closed unchanged at 30.25 on 1,000 shares.
BOC Kenya closed 0.77% better at 131.00 and traded 3,900 shares.
CarBacid was unchanged at 125.00 and traded 7,200 shares.
Crown Berger closed 3.57% stronger at 29.00
Eveready was unchanged at 4.70
Unga closed at 10.00