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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
My weekly Piece for the Star The Dubai Dream Kenya
Ostrich in the Foreground and Elephants in the Background Amboseli
An Amboseli Evening Aly-Khan Satchu
Hannah asked me to recount the Story of the very Naughty Monkey last
night. This Monkey had a Penchant for Marble Cake, stole mine and
Hannah's and then had the Chutzpah to just stand on the Table in a
Mark of Street Boy Thuggery and Challenge.
Africa: a coup in Niger raises questions about China’s tactics FT
The Chinese-built bridge over the River Niger looks sturdy enough but
Beijing’s relations with Niamey have been disturbed of late. Last week
the military junta that seized power in February’s coup d’etat was
working out the details of an audit of all mining permits granted
under Mamadou Tandja, Niger’s Sinophile ex-president.
A $300m signature bonus, coupled with an infrastructure blitz that
includes the bridge, a refinery and a hydroelectric barrage, helped to
win China National Petroleum Corporation the rights to the Agadem oil
block and its estimated 320m barrels of crude reserves. CNPC is
spending something in the region of $5bn – by far the biggest
investment in Niger’s history – to develop it.
Xia Huang, China’s new ambassador to Niger, says the Niamey bridge –
which adds a second crossing over the river as it snakes through the
capital – serves as the symbol of his country’s tangible connection to
the country. It has been inaugurated with much fanfare although
motorists and goatherds are still waiting for it to be connected to
roads at each end.
Across the continent, China’s influence is broadening, but it will
need to overcome complaints about poor working conditions in Chinese
projects and questions about the value of some of its infrastructure
The audit in Niger could be uncomfortable. But Beijing is thinking in
decades. Expect Niger to demonstrate the enduring nature of China’s
The Arrival of China [and India] on the African Continent is evidenced
in the China Africa Trade Curve which from a standing Start has topped
a $100b and is as parabolic as a Curve can get. The Macro Upshot of
this Arrival was that it stabilised the Demand Side for African
Commodity Supply. It lifted the Price Curves [Copper is an excellent
example] and gave longevity of Contract and Price. This was like an
Anchor under the Continent and the last Decade of Growth in SSA owes a
number of % points to the Chinese.
The Political issue is an entirely different one and a whole lot more
complex. The Chinese have plenty of Oxygen with which to ventilate
their Soft Power merits on the African Continent. The Chinese do not
carry the Colonial Baggage, they can cut right through that and that
is a powerful head wind as to establishing their Bona Fides. By
remaining agnostic to Regime, they have been able to establish their
Foot Print quickly. Africa is actually providing the Energy for the
I do feel though that the Chinese might well be wise to consider the
1b Souls who walk over this Continent and not only what can be dug out
of it. The Phone, the Demographics, the Arrival of the Information
Century all mean China can play Africa in a very c21st and powerful
way. Like that Bridge in your Photograph, Roads are being built all
across this Continent and by the Chinese.
In the World of Soft Power, China has a head start in Africa. Can they
seriously leverage it?
Greek Protesters Drape Banners on Acropolis NYT
Law & Politics
Greek protesters unfurled banners over the defensive walls of the
ancient Acropolis, the country's most famous monument, to protest
harsh new austerity measures as strikes began Tuesday across the
country.About 100 protesters from the Greek Communist Party cut
through locks on the gates of the major tourist attraction shortly
after dawn and unfurled the banners in Greek and English reading:
''Peoples of Europe - Rise Up.''
The Known Unknown is the Potential Scale of Public Protest and the
Thailand type Impasse Risk.
Currency Markets At A Glance
1.3201 - Dead Cat Bounces 1.2980 Objective
Dollar Index 82.37
The euro fell against the dollar to a fresh 12-month low Monday as the
widely expected announcement of a $146 billion aid package for Greece
did little to restore investor confidence and as worries persisted
about the debt burdening several euro-zone countries.Euro dropped to
$1.3207 from $1.3307 in late North American trading Friday. It touched
$1.3154 during the session, the lowest on a closing basis since April
L.A. Postcard Hef’s Peak New Yorker
|The day after the news broke, Hefner—white of hair, hard of hearing,
in bespoke black silk pajamas and a paisley robe the deep, untrue red
of a Valentine’s Day rose—was sitting on a leather couch in his
library at the Playboy Mansion, a Gothic-Tudor castle near Beverly
Hills whose six acres of grounds are patrolled by African cranes,
albino peacocks, flamingos, and macaws. (There are also squirrel
monkeys, hornbills, puffer fish, a spider monkey named Coco, and,
naturally, bunnies.) A photograph of three naked women, stacked like
dominoes, hung on a panelled wall; above the fireplace was a portrait
of Hefner as Henry VIII. “I grew up in a very typical Midwestern
Methodist home, with a lot of repression,” Hefner said. “My other home
was the movies. It’s the movies that fuelled my dreams and fantasies.
The Hollywood sign symbolized all that.”
The sign, itself an advertisement for a real-estate development, went
up in 1923, three years before Hefner was born. In the late sixties,
he started commuting from Chicago to Los Angeles, to host a television
show called “Playboy After Dark.” “That’s the reason that I got the
Big Bunny, the black DC-9, the coolest private jet ever, like a flying
apartment,” Hefner said, touching the wing of a model plane—black,
with a white bunny head on the tail—that sat behind him on the
windowsill. A few years later, he moved west. “All the pretty ladies
are livin’ out here,” he said. “They’ve been coming here since the
early twentieth century. And when they didn’t get into movies they
became shopgirls and waitresses and they got married and had beautiful
children, so you have this per-capita beauty phenomenon going on here
that is second to none.”
Jaguar XJ: The Hottest Cat on the Road WSJ
I clearly remember the moment nearly one year ago when I first laid
eyes on Jaguar's new XJ sedan, and felt as though I'd been impaled on
some gorgeous aluminum tusk. What a fantastic looking automobile. On
any aesthetic scale you'd care to calibrate—modernity, chic, formal
grace, raw carnality—this thing simply obliterates the competition,
just grinds their bones. Fee-fi-fo-fum, I smell the blood of
A New Breed of Epicurean Delights WSJ English Truffles, Latvian Caviar and Belgian Wagyu Beef are Making Their Mark
Food, Climate & Agriculture
|Many of the world's finest luxury foods are known not only for their
distinctive taste and qualities, but also for their provenance. The
most renowned truffles are unearthed from the wooded regions of
Perigord in France and Alba in northern Italy, the most toothsome
caviar from wild sturgeon in the Caspian Sea and the most succulent
Wagyu beef from Japan. Now, however, many of these epicurean
delicacies are being produced in different regions of the world. From
delectable English summer truffles to sustainable caviar from Latvia
and Wagyu beef from Belgium, these newcomers are fast gaining a
reputation in their own right and giving many of the traditional foods
-- and drinks -- a run for their money.
Chanterelles, wood-blewit mushrooms, English summer truffles and duck
eggs to be prepared in an omlet.
Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
|Copper extended a month long slide on Monday in a stark reminder of
just how central Chinese demand is to the fate of the red metal.Copper
for May delivery fell 1.8% to $3.2785 per pound at the Comex division
of New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since Feb. 26.
China Ignites Global Coal Market WSJ
|Last week, the benchmark price at Australia's Newcastle port for
thermal coal—the type burned in power plants—hit $108 a metric ton,
the highest since October 2008, according to globalCOAL, an
international trading platform. Australia is one of China's biggest
Thai Baht, Stocks Rise, Bond Risk Falls on Election Offer Businessweek
|Thailand’s baht and stocks rose the most in two weeks, and the cost of
protecting sovereign bonds from default fell, after Prime Minister
Abhisit Vejjajiva proposed a Nov. 14 election to help end eight weeks
The baht gained 0.3 percent to 32.30 per dollar and the SET Index of
shares was 3.2 percent higher at 787.83 as of 10:20 a.m. in Bangkok,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. HSBC forecast the currency
will strengthen to 31.50 this year.
Credit-default swaps on Thai government debt fell three basis points
to 128 basis points.
China’s Stocks Drop to 7-Month Low Businessweek
|Deutsche Bank AG said the reserve ratio increase removes 300 billion
yuan ($44 billion) from the financial system.
The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 23.14, or 0.8 percent, to
2,847.47 as of 1:08 p.m. local time, set for the lowest since Sept.
30. The CSI 300 Index slid 1.1 percent to 3,033.99. Futures on the CSI
300 expiring this month, the most active contract, dropped 0.3 percent
to 3,082. China’s markets were closed yesterday for a holiday.
The reserve requirement will increase 50 basis points effective May
10, the People’s Bank of China said on May 2. The current level is
16.5 percent for the biggest banks and 14.5 percent for smaller ones.
Beijing will limit new apartment purchases to one per family as part
of measures aimed at slowing the rise in housing prices, Xinhua News
Agency reported on April 30. Beijing also asked commercial banks to
suspend third-home loans, China News Service reported.
Probably headed lower but Concerns are overblown but thats not to say
they cannot become even more overblown.
Angola to get first credit rating soon: government source Reuters
World Of Finance
|Angola should receive its first credit rating in the next few days,
paving the way for the African nation to issue up to $4 billion in
bonds to foreign investors, a government source said on
Monday.Representatives from Moody's, Fitch Ratings and Standard and
Poor's were recently in Angola to assess its rating. The source
declined to give details on timing and the exact amount of bonds to be
"We expect the credit rating to be issued in the next few days," the
source said. "The government will then decide how much and when it
will sell the bonds."
Angola hopes it can get a better credit rating than oil-producing
rival Nigeria, which is rated "B+" by Standard and Poor's.
I expect these Angola Bonds to be generous and a Buy.
Sudan c.bank aims at lower inflation, mulls peg change Reuters
|Sudan's central bank aims to bring inflation back to single digits,
using a tighter monetary policy and dropping its peg to the dollar in
favour of a currency basket in the last quarter of 2010, its governor
Governor Sabir Mohammad al-Hassan told Reuters in an interview late on
Monday that the bank wanted to bring annual inflation to 7-9 percent,
from around 12 percent in April.
"Our economy is in a stage of development, we have a lot of rigidities
so we do not really target a very low level of inflation," Hassan said
in Bahrain, where he was attending a finance conference.
"Unfortunately, it is a bit higher than what we want to see now."
Hassan said the central bank was working on a plan to replace the
Sudanese pound link to the dollar with a basket of currencies of its
main trading partners.
This, he hopes will help contain inflation as the currency has a large
impact on prices.
When asked about the timing of the change he said: "Towards the end of
the year, the last quarter more probably."
He expected the dollar to have the biggest weight in the basket of not
less than 50 percent, while the euro, the British pound, and Asian
currencies such as China's yuan were also being considered.
Sudan runs a so-called managed float system where the central bank
calculates an indicative rate based on previous day transactions and
intervenes on the market if quotes break away from a plus/minus 3
percent corridor around that rate.
Hassan also said both north and south would have to keep the pound for
some time if the referendum, planned for early next year, results in
secession of the oil-producing southern part.
"The necessary logistics require a minimum period of six months to one
year because it is not easy to issue a new currency," Hassan said.
Dubai no longer a key partner Smart Company
|In 2006, Kenya brought goods worth Sh70 billion from Dubai, growing by
33 per cent to Sh96bn in the year to January 2010. Chinese exports to
Kenya are growing eight times faster than Dubai, increasing from
Sh21bn to Sh78bn or 272 per cent.In 2006, Kenya brought goods worth
Sh70 billion from Dubai, growing by 33 per cent to Sh96bn in the year
to January 2010. Chinese exports to Kenya are growing eight times
faster than Dubai, increasing from Sh21bn to Sh78bn or 272 per
cent.Africa has also overtaken Dubai as Kenya’s preferred trade
partner. The continent now provides over Sh108 billion of Kenya’s
imports. In January 2006, Kenya got Sh61 billion of imports from
Africa, Sh9 billion lower than Dubai.
Dubai in 2010 is a bigger number than China and therefore, hardly not
a Key Trading Partner.
The Dubai Dream The Star
Safaricom raises concerns over competition rules The Standard
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
|The Fair Competition and Equality of Treatment regulations, part of
the Kenya Communications Regulations of 2010, require dominant
players in the industry to report to the regulator before revising
The most important regulations are the ones called "Fair Competition
and Equality of Treatment" and "Tariff: These regulations allows the
regulator to declare, either by itself or on application by a 3rd
party, an operator to be dominant and then to impose a series of
controls and restrictions on that operator. We do not mind being
because that is what we are, but to be then restrained, restricted and
then controlled when we have not abused our dominance is basically
unfair and, in our view, unconstitutional. As an example we need to
give the regulator 90 days notice of any changes in our prices which
the regulator may or not approve, our prices can be arbitrarily
declared null and void and the CCK has the ultimate power to decide. I
can go but I will leave it to you to decide what is fair.
Our main contention is that even though we are likely to be declared
dominant, competition law globally requires that the regulator first
establishes whether a dominant undertaking has in fact abused its
dominant position by engaging in anti- competitive conduct.
Establishing an abuse of dominance is a process driven exercise which
of necessity requires the CCK to undertake market studies/ tests to
ascertain the veracity of such allegations. As currently drafted The
Fair Competition & Equality of Treatment Regulations gives the CCK the
discretion on whether or not to undertake such tests, further more it
allows the CCK to make a presumption of dominance without applying any
process. Once declared dominant out retail prices are then the subject
of price controls.
Well I could not have put it any better. I do believe they have a
Prima Facie Case.
Also I do feel the Government needs to tread carefully here and not be
seen to penalise Success.
Harvest time in farm stocks Smart Company
Food, Climate & Agriculture
|Good weather and growing demand have over the past four months put
agricultural stocks in the driving seat of the NSE price rally. The
shares hit new highs, some doubling in value.
“The stocks have put on a good run in the first quarter of the year
and based on the weather patterns, they are bound to continue doing
well,” says Mr Einstein Kihanda, an investment analyst with Sanlam
“I think the penny will drop at the time of full year results, when
these companies will pay windfall dividends from supernormal profits
and this might well create a stampede for the counters,” says Mr
Aly-Khan Satchu, an NSE licensed data vendor.
In the three months to March 31, 2010, Eaagads, the coffee growers and
blenders based in Ruiru, topped the list of gainers, adding 275 per
cent on its Sh20 share price recorded in December to Sh75.
Its majority shareholder Socfinaf Ltd (62 per cent) exited early in
the year with information that Renaissance Capital, South Africa, may
have brought in. Eaagads has over 487 acres of land in Ruiru on the
Nairobi-Thika Road. Over 99 per cent of this land is under coffee
while the remainder is under tree plantation.
“If we had a more sophisticated market, we would be seeing corporate
raiders building stakes and then seeking to break up these companies
and return the cash to shareholders. Some balance sheets have not
revalued real estate since purchase,” says Mr Satchu.
Kakuzi, also with 8,266 acres of land both Thika and Nandi Hills,
gained 147 per cent on its share price from Sh31.75 to Sh78.50. Sasini
doubled its price from Sh7.10 to Sh14.45.
It has coffee farms in Kiambu and Nyeri and tea in Sotik. In total, it
has over 5,700 acres of land. Its low share price valuation is said to
be one of the main attraction as it has great potential to rally
AccessKenya stirs speculation with AGM push-back Business Daily
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
|Internet firm AccessKenya has postponed its annual general meeting set
for Tuesday, throwing shareholders into confusion.
The postponement, in a brief Press notice on Friday, indicated that
the firm had pushed forward its shareholder meeting to August 31 and
closing of its register to September 1.
Business Daily could not establish immediately what the nature of the
logistical hiccup was, but financial analysts said that its could
signal the firm is facing cash-flow problems or it has a material
announcement that it seeks to make ahead of the AGM.
K-Rep leaps out of loss-making domain with Sh10m profit Business Daily
World Of Finance
|The gross non-performing loans portfolio was up to Sh1.275 billion
compared to Sh1.21 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2009 and
Sh1.26 billion at the end of 2009.
Its total operating income was Sh282 million compared to Sh330 million
by the end of the first quarter of 2009.
Its total income from loans is also down to Sh244 million from Sh308
million in 2009.
Its total assets declined by Sh1.2 billion to Sh7.138 billion in the
first quarter of the year
It was overly exposed to the Sharp End in 2007 and 2008.
Sub Saharan Africa recovery strengthens-World Bank Reuters
Sub-Saharan Africa will grow by up to 4.2 percent in 2010 after
expansion of 1.7 percent last year, helped by booming telecoms and
commodity sectors, a senior World Bank official said on Tuesday.
Earlier World Bank forecasts projected growth of 3.8 percent this year
before reaching 4.6 percent in 2011.
"The continent is now focused on the rebound for growth and should be
posting between 3.8 to 4.2 percent in 2010," Obiageli Ezekwesili, the
bank's vice president for Africa, told Reuters.
Kenya: Successful Weather Prediction Uses Old And New All Africa
Food, Climate & Agriculture
According to Ouma, the Nganyi community has pointed out a particular
tree locally known as 'Shibelenge' as the most important indicator for
long-term rain prediction. "They have not revealed exactly what they
observe on the tree. But we have taken specimens from one of the trees
believed to be over 200 years old for a scientific analysis," he said.
According to Ndululu Otenyo, renowned rainmaker from Ikhaba village in
Western Kenya, some animals like antelopes never mate when there is no
rain. "If there was a drought, then suddenly you see antelopes mating,
then you must expect heavy rains within less than a week. At the same
time if you see bees migrating from north to the southern direction,
then you should start preparing for drought," said Otenyo.
The Shilling is at 77.35.
The NSE20 closed 11.64 points lower at 4205.54.
The NASI eased 0.06 points to close at 89.66.
Market Cap was 1.044013 Trillion versus 1.04472 Trillion.
Equity Turnover picked up and was 338.553m versus 205.571m.
We have been in a 4 session orderly correction and Pull back after
posting 4 Consecutive 2010 Highs.
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural
Sasini Tea firmed 1.34% to close at 15.10 and traded a 15.00-15.80
range and 338,100 shares.
Kakuzi closed lower at 77.00 and traded 21,200 shares.
Rea Vipingo traded just 500 shares at 18.05 -5.99%.
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
shares volume 9.472m
avg price 5.84 closing PRICE 5.80 Unchanged
high price 5.90
low price 5.80
last price 5.80
Safaricom was the 2nd most active Counter at the Bourse with its 3rd
consecutive close at 5.84 average which is rounded down to 5.80.
Please see Michael Joseph's verbatim response above to the Competition
Issues currently playing out. You do not penalise Success arbitrarily
and more than 800,000 Shareholders are a Constituency, who have yet to
flex their Muscles. I look for a test of 6.10 12 month Highs.
Scangroup rowed back 2.61% to close at 28.00 and traded a 26.75-29.50
range and 15,800 shares. Demand outweighs Supply by a Factor of 2-1.
Scangroup was trading 29.50 +2.61% into the close versus 30.50 session
high touched yesterday.
Access Kenya rebounded 4.63% to close at 19.20 and traded a
18.50-19.60 range and 98,600 shares. Buyers looked through the Noise,
Business Daily carried an article today regarding the Postponement of
the Access AGM.
Kenya Airways dipped 0.88% to close at 56.50 and traded a 55.00-57.00
range and 111,700 shares worth 6.313m.
TPS Serena was unchanged at 63.50 and traded 12,400 shares.
Nation was unchanged at 140.00 and traded 3,800 shares.
Standard did not trade.
CMC Holdings closed at 13.10 and traded a 13.05-13.50 range and 50,700 shares.
CARGEN did not trade.
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
Equity Bank traded 3rd overall. Equity Bank closed unchanged at 18.50
and closed out the session trading Intra day highs of 18.95 +2.43%.
Equity Bank traded 2.633m shares worth 48.794m. Earnings inflected 1st
Quarter and Buyers are now prepared to pay up. I believe 20.00 is a
near term objective.
Stanchart firmed 0.51% to close at 197.00 and traded 25,100 shares.
KCB dipped 1.1% to close at 22.50 and traded a 22.50-22.75 range and
Barclays Bank eased 0.86% to close at 57.50 and traded 51,800 shares.
COOP Bank eased 0.42% to close at 11.80 and traded an 11.70-12.00
range and 382,900 shares.
HFCK closed 2.2% lower at 22.25 and traded 228,900 shares worth
5.103m. HFCK has run up steeply on speculation [not rebutted] that
Equity Bank were looking to take a much bigger Bite. Folks today with
strong gains apparently were keener on the Gains in hand than waiting
for Dr. Mwangi to pay up.
NBK closed firmer at 43.75 and traded 13,000 shares.
NIC firmed 0.66% to close at 38.25 and traded 47,300 shares.
CFC StanBic eased 0.5% to close at 49.50 and traded 20,500 shares.
DTB traded 2,600 shares at an unchanged 85.00.
Centum rose 0.56% to close at 18.00 and traded a 18.50 intra day high
and 221,700 shares.
Kenya Re was unchanged at 13.20 and traded a 13.10-13.35 range with
198,900 shares traded and Demand for half a million at the close.
Jubilee did not trade.
PanAfric did not trade either.
Olympia Capital rallied 5.729% to close at 9.95 and traded 9,000 shares.
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
KENOLKOBIL rallied 7.735% to close at 90.50 [87.00-92.00 range] and
traded 15,600 shares. I think it remains a good value Counter with a
Broad SSA Footprint. which they will leverage to good effect.
Total was unchanged at 30.25 and traded 21,000 shares.
Bamburi Cement was the most active counter and traded unchanged at
185.00 where 624,600 shares worth 114.071m were traded. Bamburi has
seen materially increased activity of late see the 5 month Volume
chart. 185.00 is a clearing Price and clearly we must be nearing
completion of this Block. Bamburi earned 18.32 shillings Full Year
2009 and 4.29 of this was a one off ARM shareholding related Profit.
Bamburi Cement share price data from www.rich.co.ke
Par Value: 5/-
Closing Price: 185.00
Total Shares Issued: 362,959,264
Market Capitalization: 67,147M
Other Gains and Losses 1.558b/362,959,264 = 4.29 shillings per share
related to ARM shareholding Sale.
ARM was unchanged at 115.00 and traded 2,000 shares.
Portland traded a 1,000 shares at 115.00 -4.17%.
BAT traded 150,800 shares worth 29.556m and all at 196.00. With
Inflation at 3.7% and TBill Rates having cratered lower as well, BAT
has a supremely attractive Dividend Yield of over 7% and this is very
supportive for the Price. BAT was the 4th most active Counter.
Mumias Sugar firmed 0.76% to close at 13.10 and traded a 13.00-13.20
range and 673,900 shares worth 8.828m which ranked it 5th Overall.
KENGEN rallied 1.28% to close at 15.90 and traded a 15.70-16.00 range
and 230,100 shares. 15.00 is now solid support.
KPLC eased 0.56% to close at 179.00 and traded 19,800 shares worth 3.550m.
Cables closed at 21.75 and traded 8,000 shares.
EABL was ticked 1.18% lower to close at 167.00 and traded 25,600 shares.
BOC Gases closed down 2.88% at 135.00 and traded 700 shares.
Carbacid bounced 2.07% to close at 148.00 and traded 12,400 shares.
Crown Berger traded 4,600 shares at an unchanged 37.00.
Eveready eased 1.06% to close at 4.65 and traded 19,300 shares.
Sameer closed at 9.60 and traded 39,900 shares.
Unga closed down 2.95% at 11.50 and traded 18,100 shares.