www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

I thank Wolfgang Fengler World Bank Kenya Lead Economist and Johannes
Zutt for the Invitation to their Offices I must say I do enjoy my time in
Upper Hill and find it very stimulating. Thanks to Sudhir Shetty as
well and all the Folks. It is an Accomplished Team and frankly a
pleasure to interface with.

Wolfgang made an excellent Presentation at Mindspeak this Year Kenya
Demography the World
http://bit.ly/dusw2Y

Macro Thoughts

Gold is at 1200.

The Age of Turbulence.

The Conservative leader insisted that Labour had “lost its mandate to
govern” as the Tories made big gains and easily overtook Labour as the
largest party at Westminster. But he faced an agonising wait before
learning whether he could assemble enough seats to command a Commons
majority.Amid signs that the election would produce no clear result,
Gordon Brown was engaged in frantic talks on whether he could stitch
together a coalition of his Labour party with Nick Clegg’s Liberal
Democrats to keep the Tories out of power.

After a night for Labour that was slightly better than party officials
feared, Mr Brown’s allies said lines of communications were open with
Mr Clegg. Any deal could include the offer of cabinet seats to senior
Lib Dems as well as the promise of a referendum on electoral reform.

Lord Mandelson, the business secretary, suggested that Labour could
cling to office by forming a coalition with the Lib Dems. “We have no
problem in principle in trying to provide this country with strong and
stable government,” he said.

William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary, said a Labour-Lib Dem
coalition deal would be “shameful” and voters could punish Mr Clegg
for propping up a defeated government.

In the event of the hung parliament—that is, if no single party wins
at least 326 seats necessary to claim an outright majority in the
House of Commons, which holds 650 seats—the Queen will have a very
visible function in resolving the issue.

Traditionally, the monarch symbolically hands over the keys to 10
Downing Street to the party that has "the confidence of the House of
Commons." In the event of a hung Parliament, the Queen is not the one
who decides where this confidence lies—she remains impartial. Rather,
Maj would wait for the politicians to sort it out. (This might
involve, say, the Liberal Democrats' making a deal with whichever
party agreed to their election-reform demands.)

However, the Queen does have the authority to veto a fresh election
should Gordon Brown request it, according to a 1974 memo: "If the
prime minister requests a dissolution [of parliament] the Queen is not
constitutionally bound to grant that request ... she might (not
necessarily would) take the view that it was her duty to satisfy
herself that another election was unavoidable."

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is not normally associated with radical
moves but the 85-year-old monarch is making waves with signals
encouraging greater tolerance of women's rights.

In recent days Abdullah's appearance in an unusual group photograph
has become a talking point across his realm and the wider Arab world.
The king and his brother Crown Prince Sultan were flanked by 40 women
dressed in modest abayas but mostly with their faces bare, a novelty
that is seen as evidence of rare liberalism at the top.

The Group of Seven plans to hold a conference call today to discuss
the Greek debt crisis, according to Japanese Finance Minister Naoto
Kan, after a global stock rout sparked by concern debt woes are
spreading.

The euro advanced 0.6 percent to $1.2697 as of 12:53 p.m. in Tokyo
after reaching as low as $1.2529 yesterday. The G-7 hasn’t intervened
in the currency market since a coordinated effort in 2000 to buy the
euro, which was at the time undermined by lack of confidence in the
region’s economic-growth prospects.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average was down 2.8 percent as of 1 p.m. in
Tokyo after tumbling as much as 4.1 percent earlier. Asian traders
came in today after the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average at one point
overnight slid the most since the 1987 crash, before closing down 3.2
percent.

The Wall Street sell-off, triggered by Europe’s debt crisis, was
exacerbated by waves of computerized trading. Shares were hit by signs
the Greek situation is spreading. The extra yield investors demand to
hold Spanish and Portuguese debt yesterday rose to the highest level
since the euro’s 1999 inception.

Conclusions

“The key here is whether they’ll be able to come up with a solution
that the market has yet to expect,” said Masamichi Adachi, a senior
economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo, referring to the G-7
conference call.

Euro 1.2659 - Going Lower
Pound 1.4629 - Massive Move lower
Dollar Index 85.05
Higher Beta
Aussie 0.8862 - a long way away from 0.93 Levels
Real 1.8542
Rand 7.72 will trade 8.00

The euro dropped as low as to $1.2510. Sell Rallies.

Conclusions

Breaking Down.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet resisted pressure
from investors to take new steps to contain government fiscal strains
that led to credit-rating downgrades in Greece, Portugal and Spain and
triggered riots in Athens.

The credit-market rally began as the extra yield investors demand to
own corporate bonds instead of government securities started falling
from the record 511 basis points reached on March 30, 2009, according
to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Corporate
Index. It fell to as low as 142 basis points on April 21.

The spread widened 10 basis points to 168 yesterday, the biggest
increase since the yield premium rose by the same amount on Nov. 20,
2008. The index has returned 23 percent since the peak in spreads last
year.

Credit swaps on Spanish and Portuguese banks rose to records
yesterday, according to CMA. Portugal’s Banco Comercial Portugues SA
increased 69 basis points to 548 and Banco Espirito Santo SA climbed
59 to 570, according to CMA in New York. Contracts on Spain’s Banco
Santander SA rose 34 basis points to 241 and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya
Argentaria SA jumped 35.5 to 257.

Credit-default swaps on Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy rose to or
near all-time highs. Swaps on Greece surged 97 basis points to 941,
Portugal climbed 45.5 to 461, Spain increased 45 to 275 and Italy rose
45 to 232, CMA prices show.

Conclusions

A Major Dislocation.

U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average at one point overnight slid the most
since the 1987 crash, before closing down 3.2 percent.

The stock market plunged Thursday in a harrowing five-minute selloff
that appeared to be triggered by a breakdown of trading systems. After
dropping nearly 1,000 points, the market rebounded but still closed
down 3.2%, leaving Wall Street struggling to figure out what
happened.Investors already were jittery about the ripple effects of
the crisis in Greece when the market went into free fall at 2:42 p.m.
By 2:47, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had crossed 10000 in the
biggest intraday point drop in its history. By 3:07, the market had
regained 500 points, ultimately staggering to a close at 10520.32,
down 347.80 points.

The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission said they were working with other regulators to
review "unusual trading activity." The major U.S. stock exchanges said
they were looking for trading glitches and examining potentially
erroneous trades in multiple stocks. Major exchanges said they will
cancel erroneous trades that occurred during the selloff.

Multiple stocks, ranging from Accenture PLC to Boston Beer Co.,
momentarily lost nearly 100% of their value, changing hands for just
one penny. Exchange-traded funds, which are index funds that trade
like stocks on exchanges, were also temporarily vaporized. The $9.5
billion iShares Russell 1000 Value Index Fund went from $59 to around
8 cents in the blink of an eye.

"It happened so quickly, it was like a torpedo," said Scott Redler,
chief strategic officer at T3 Capital Management, a hedge fund. "It
was mayhem."

The market was already down some 500 points when the selloff began.

Conclusions

The Age of Turbulence.

I like cars, but I love roads. A classic Mustang ragtop is nothing
without a canvas to drive it on. Now that long weekends are
approaching and good weather has warmed mountain lanes, the great
American road trip is calling.

My criteria are simple: Spectacular scenery; good food (check out Jane
and Michael Stern’s “Roadfood” for the local and offbeat); and the
primary route should be a back way rather than a freeway, preferably
with more twists than an M. Night Shyamalan movie.

One good turn deserves another: I’m willing to spill a few secrets of my own.

California’s Highway 1 is everyone’s favorite for good reason: Sublime
oceanside vistas and the road itself is twisty- turny nirvana. But
traffic congestion means the stultifying death of a good road trip,
and its vertiginous hairpins are beset by herds of slow-moving RVs and
terrified tourists in rented Sebrings.

Don’t give up the dream, just go further north.

Robert Frank The Road
http://bit.ly/b8qP3n

Frank asked Jack Kerouac to write the introduction to “The Americans.”
Of this photograph, Kerouac wrote: “Long shot of night road arrowing
forlorn into immensities and flat of impossible-to-believe America in
New Mexico under the prisoner’s moon.”

The collection includes many international works, such as this
photograph from the Iranian artist Jalal Sepehr’s series “Water and
Persian Rugs” (2004)

“Animation Surfaces” (2009). In one piece, images of whales subtly
appear on the surface of the waiting room wall, slowly swim toward the
viewer, and then recede into the blank wall.

Conclusions

Animation Surfaces made me think of Hafiz

A Suspended Blue Ocean
http://bit.ly/80e0cC

The sky
Is a suspended blue ocean.
The stars are the fish
That swim.
The planets are the white whales
I sometimes hitch a ride on

Early humans mated and produced children in liaisons with Neanderthals.

The Vindija cave in Croatia, where the Neanderthal bones -- remains of
three women who lived between 38,000 and 45,000 years ago -- were
found.

Front Sugar -6.11%.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 1.5 percent to 934.55 by 2
p.m. in Hong Kong, extending this week’s retreat to 8.4 percent, the
biggest decline since Feb. 20, 2009. The index has swung to a 6
percent loss for the year from a 5 percent gain over nine days.

“There is a contagion of fear,” said Raymond Tang, who oversees $6.4
billion as chief investment officer at CIMB- Principal Asset
Management Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. “These things get a life of their
own.”

Emerging-market bonds lost 1.4 percent yesterday, according to
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI+ Index. The extra yield investors demand
to own the securities over Treasuries surged 28 basis points to 3.23
percentage points, the most since Feb. 17, 2009, the EMBI+ gauge
showed.

Under the constitution, Jonathan is now the head of state until the
country's next elections scheduled to be held by April 2011. He will
also nominate a vice-president, subject to approval by the senate.

Conclusions

Looking for 7.91 8.00 then 8.10.

Value27,512.83   
Change-103.850    
% Change-0.376

Conclusions

Asserting a higher Correlation with Developed Markets at a time of
High Beta Volatility.

Value7,116.45   
Change-60.380    
% Change-0.841

Conclusions

Has Given back a lot of the 2010 Gains of late.

"This is the threesome that runs Zimbabwe at the moment," Mr. Mugabe
said. "Age-wise—perhaps by comparative degrees—young, younger and
youngest," he said, pointing by turns to himself, Mr. Tsvangirai, who
is 58 years old, and Mr. Mutambara, who is 43. Mr. Mugabe is 86.

Africa's founding fathers were national heroes, many of whom risked
their lives fighting for independence. Mr. Mugabe was one of them. He
battled white rule and skillfully negotiated Zimbabwe's independence
in 1980.

That was then. Africa's population is incredibly young—60% of
sub-Saharan Africa is under 25 years old—and has no memory of the
heady independence days. These young people respect, but no longer
revere, the heroes of old. They want good governance, education and
good jobs in their own countries. Leaders who fail to deliver are
rejected, no matter their revolutionary pedigree.

Mr. Mugabe responded by recounting in great detail, his struggle for
independence in Zimbabwe—then known as Rhodesia. "If we could work
with members drawn from the Rhodesia front that oppressed us, what was
there to prevent us from working with him?" Mr. Mugabe asked, laying
his hand on Mr. Tsvangirai's arm.

Mr. Tsvangirai, who has survived at least two assassination attempts
in Zimbabwe, remained inscrutable and for several seconds, the room
fell silent. Mr. Mugabe only smiled broadly. "This young fellow… of
mine," he added, patting his arm. He coaxed another laugh from Mr.
Tsvangirai and the audience.

Conclusions

The Ted Spread [The Variation] between the average Age of the Rulers
and the Ruled in Africa has never been this wide. This Bulge of Young
People [and I happen to believe that it is the Human Capital that
walks on the Ground that is infinitely more valuable than the riches
that can be dug out of it] is a very disjunctive and potentially
revolutionary thing. The Mobile Phone [a very late cycle Phenomenon]
has created Mega Cities of interconnected People where before most
Folk were in fragmented Villages. The Information Century has arrived
on this Continent at a breath taking Clip.

When I returned to Nairobi some three Years ago, My car broke down
halfway between Nairobi and Mombasa. It was late in the Evening. I
have three Daughters. I was concerned and this Young Boy Approaches
me. I am paranoid thinking he might be a Decoy. Anyway He starts
talking and he tells me he once found some Latin Text Books and had
taught himself Latin. And He had because I had studied Latin and I
tested him. Until the Mobile Arrived, he was just watching Cars go by.
Today we can plug him in. It is as simple as that. And we are set to
do this all over the Continent. I cannot tell you what he might
contribute but it will be material.

What does a Revolutionary Leader know about this new c21st? Its a new
time. A much faster time. And it needs dynamic New Leaders born and
bred of this New Age. But today, the Power has already transferred
from the Rulers to the Ruled. They might not realise it but they serve
now at the pleasure of the People.

Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke
Nairobi

Attorney-General Amos Wako has published a final edition of the
proposed laws, moving Kenya closer to a new Constitution.

Business leaders welcomed the document, saying it has the potential to
put the country on a more stable foundation, needed for long term
growth.

“What happens henceforth will greatly determine the economic outlook
and investor confidence in the country,” said Peter Wachira, an
investment analyst PineBridge Investment — formerly AIG Investment.

“A positive outcome will clear a lot of uncertainty over Kenya’s
future,” he said.

Conclusions

Its a little binary though isn't it? How does it play out if it does not pass?

The auction of 91-day Treasury Bills in Kenya, east Africa’s biggest
economy, were 35 percent oversold, Central Bank of Kenya said in a
statement in Nairobi- based Daily Nation today.

The central bank received bids totaling 4.7 billion shillings ($60.37
million) for an offer of 3.5 billion shillings worth of bills, Mark
Lesiit, Assistant Director for Monetary Operations and Debt Management
said in the statement.

“Bids accepted amounted to 4 billion shillings,” Lesiit said. The rate
to be paid on the treasury bills declined to 4.5 percent from 4.9
percent last week, he said.

Conclusions

The System is awash with Liquidity.

Value72.20   
Change0.490    
% Change0.683

Conclusions

Back at October 2008 levels.

Kenya's economy is expected to grow by 5 percent in 2011, up from a
forecast 4 percent this year if it continues to invest in
infrastructure and small and medium-sized businesses, the World Bank
said on Friday.

"It (Kenya) has regained momentum in economic growth, and will likely
reach 4 percent this year, and 5 percent next year, provided no
further shocks derail recent progress," Johannes Zutt, World Bank
country director for Kenya, said in a speech.

Shareholders of Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd., the nation’s biggest
lender by outlets, approved a proposal to increase share capital to
3.5 billion shillings ($44.8 million), Chairman Peter Muthoka said.

The company’s share capital will be raised from 2.4 billion shillings
by creating 1.1 billion new ordinary shares with a face value of 1
shilling each, Muthoka said at a shareholders’ meeting in the capital,
Nairobi, today.

“Our current capital base cannot support the current rapid expansion
of the bank,” he said.

The extra funds will be used for growth and consolidation of the
company in Kenya and its units in Tanzania, Sudan, Uganda and Rwanda,
Chief Executive Officer Martin Oduor-Otieno said in a statement
published on the company’s website.

The bank will determine the price of the new shares, which will be
sold at a discount, later.

Kenya Commercial aims to double its customer base within the next 18
months from “just below 1 million,” Oduor-Otieno said in February.

In 2009, the lender opened 14 more outlets in Kenya, eight in Rwanda,
four each in southern Sudan and Uganda, and one in Tanzania, bringing
the total to 203.

Kenya Commercial, which is 26.2 percent government-owned, in 2008
raised 8.1 billion shillings through a share sale to open as many 50
new outlets and install 50 automated teller machines.

KCB share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/bshUrU

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          22.50
Total Shares Issued:          2,217,777,664
Market Capitalization:        49,900M
EPS:            1.84
PE:                12.228

The Shilling is weaker and trading over 78.00. It touched levels over 78.50.

The NSE20 closed 6.88 points firmer at 4277.63.
The NASI slipped 0.08 points to close at 91.18.
Market Cap was 1.061714 Trillion versus 1.06268 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was robust at 453.779m versus 588.179m last time.

The Bourse remains on the Front Foot and resolute.

Notwithstanding the absolute Chaos reigning further afield in the
World Markets. SSA Markets are set to prove their Mettle as an
Attractive Asset Class but I think the Sweet Spot is at the very
Frontier like here, Ghana, Tunisia Nigeria.

Sasini Tea firmed 10 cents to close at 15.25 and traded 290,500
shares. It trades on an Implied Forward of 5.733.
Kakuzi firmed a shilling to close at 78.50 and trades on a Trailing PE of 4.469.
Rea Vipingo traded 7,900 shares and closed unchanged at 18.85.

SAFARICOM

shares volume     41,050,200
total turnover      242,518,688
avg price     5.91 CLOSING PRICE 5.90 -1.66%
high price     6.00
low price     5.90
last price     5.95

Conclusions

Safaricom was again the most active Counter and eased 1.66% to close
at 5.90. 6.10 is the 12 month High and it remains in View. There has
been determined Buyer at work and continues to take shares out of the
System.

Scangroup has responded very positively to the Ogilvy Move. Scangroup
was trading at 33.00 +10.00% most of the session and closed 8.333%
better at 32.50. According to my Charts the all time is 35.00 and we
look set to burst through there. Scangroup traded 56,000 shares and
had Demand 4x that showing on the Board. Institutions who might have
found Scangroup previously too narrow are now going to have to up
their Allocation and will surely support the price. The Ogilvy Trade
looks like the long Awaited SSA Game Changer for Scangroup.

Scangroup share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/c1tljc

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          30.00
Total Shares Issued:          220,689,648
Market Capitalization:        6,621M
EPS:            1.81
PE:                16.575

Access Kenya could not hold its rebound gains from yesterday and fell
5.44% to close at 18.25. Access traded 213,400 shares.

CARGEN rallied 8.88% to close at 49.00 and traded 500 shares.
CMC Holdings firmed 5 cents and closed at 13.50 and traded 500 shares.

Kenya Airways traded 84,000 shares and closed 50 cents better at 56.00.

Nation was at 144.00 and traded 23,600 shares.
Standard traded 2,500 shares to close at 40.75.

TPS Serena closed at 61.00 and traded 9,200 shares.

Standard Chartered rallied 2% to close at 204.00 on the news that it
was set to undertake a Rights Issue. Stanchart trades on a PE of
11.919 and deploys a higher Dividend Payout Ratio than the other Big
Caps. Stanchart traded 12,500 shares and of all the Big Caps, Stan
Chart's shares are the most tightly held.

Standard Chartered Bank share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/1MoR3I

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          200.00
Total Shares Issued:          271,967,808
Market Capitalization:        54,394M
EPS:            16.78
PE:                11.919

Barclays Bank was the 3rd most active Counter. Barclays Bank firmed
0.87% to close at 58.00 and traded a 56.00-58.50 range and 536,800
shares worth 31.336m. 1st Quarter Results will govern whether Barclays
can probe resistance which is at 60.00.
KCB got approval for its Rights Issue today and is set to sell 1.1b
New Shares via a Rights Issue but has as yet not disclosed the
Discount. KCB shaved off 1.11% to close at 22.25 but was trading at
session lows of 21.75 -3.33% into the Close. KCB traded 635,800
shares, had an overhang of a further 1m shares which was not cleared
at the close.
KCB trades on a PE of 12.228 and accelerated 10% in the 1st Quarter of
this Year.
COOP Bank firmed 0.8316% to close at 12.05 and traded a 11.85-12.20
range and 1.208m shares worth 14.513m.
Equity Bank rose 0.265% to close at 19.05 and traded a 19.30 high and
848,700 shares worth 16.196m. It is well supported now as Buyers
continue to respond post the 1st Quarter results and look to add a
Growth Premium back into the Stock.

NIC closed 1.96% better at 39.00 and was trading at 40.00 +4.58% at
the close.NIC traded 42,700 shares.
NBK closed 0.58% at 43.00 and traded 71,200 shares.
HFCK was unchanged at 22.50 and traded a 22.25-22.75 range and 89,300 shares.
CFC Stanbic eased 0.51% to close at 49.00 and traded 5,100 shares.
DTB closed 50 cents better at 85.50 and traded just 1,500 shares.

Centum rallied a further 1.63% to close at 18.70 and traded a 19.00
session high and 182,200 shares. I surmise they have liquidated a
great deal of their KCB shares and the offer of 10% of RVR Shares at
the price offerred will result in a material Write Back as this Asset
was subject to an impairment charge at the last results.

Kenya Re closed lower at 13.20 and traded a 12.85-13.35 range and
205,000 shares.
Jubilee traded a 100 shares at 175.00 unchanged.
PanAfric did not trade.

Mumias Sugar was the 2nd most active Counter. Mumias was unchanged at
13.60 and traded a 13.60-13.80 range and 2.864m shares worth 39.048m.
13.60 was my price Target when they reported Half Year Results and is
an implied PE of 10.00 assuming zero acceleration from the First Half.
Investors are now buying into the 2nd Half Acceleration.

Kenolkobil firmed a further 1.98% to close at 103.00 and traded shares
as high as 110.00. Kenolkobil traded 108,700 shares.
Total was marked down 2.46% to close at 29.75 and traded 3,200 shares.

EABL traded 4th. EABL firmed 0.59% to close at 170.00 and was trading
at 171.00 into the Close. EABL traded a 169.00-171.00 range and
161,400 shares worth 27.563m.

KENGEN eased 0.87% to close at 17.00 and traded a 16.80-17.50 range
and 387,100 shares. Demand outweighs Supply by a Factor of 2-1.
KPLC firmed 1.1022% to close at 182.00 and traded a 180.00-183.00
range and 20,100 shares.
Cables rose 3.53% to close at 22.00 and traded 18,900 shares.

BAT was unchanged at 196.00 and traded 27,900 shares.

Bamburi shaved off two shillings to close at 188.00 and traded 1,000 shares
ARM was unchanged at 115.00 and traded 1,300 shares.
Portland firmed 1.86% to close at 109.00 and traded 2,900 shares.

BOC Kenya traded 3,900 shares at an unchanged 135.00.
Carbacid traded 3,600 shares and closed 1 better at 149.00.
Crown Berger traded a 100 shares at 35.00.
Eveready firmed 10 cents to close at 4.75 on 32,400 shares.
Sameer eased 10 cents to close at 9.45.
Unga traded 55,600 shares and closed at 12.15.