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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 05th of May 2010
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
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The Dubai Dream The Star
http://bit.ly/bmC6OA

I am grateful to Peter Ndoro and Penny Dale of the BBC World Service
for the Invitation to discuss Africa yesterday. It will be transmitted
Saturday I am told.
Thanks.
I reminded Peter of a very fine Evening we spent together at the
Osteria a couple of years back.

The Thrust of My Point was that Africa The Future is Bright
http://twitpic.com/1kytf9


 


I do thank Jeremy Block of Dormans for a very enjoyable Lunch today
and a lesson in Kenya Coffee versus Futures Ted Spreads amongst other
things. Thanks.
Macro Thoughts

Euro trades through 1.2980.

Home Thoughts

Reading My Favourite Poem Yeats The Second Coming
http://bit.ly/aBBZyk

TURNING and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Referencing the Euro

read more


U.K. Navel Gazing as Europe Crisis Deepens WSJ
World Of Finance

When Queen Elizabeth II began her reign in 1952, Winston Churchill was
Prime Minister. Britain's veteran leader—a product of the late
Victorian era and the age of empire - was utterly entranced by the
25-year-old monarch. He had first met her when she was only
two-years-old: "She has an air of authority and reflectiveness
astonishing in an infant."

This is the tightest U.K. general-election contest in a generation. On
the basis of the latest opinion polls, a hung parliament in which no
party has an overall majority still looks the most likely outcome.
Against a backdrop of turmoil in the markets and economic strife, it
is entirely possible that it will not be obvious who the queen should
ask to form a government.

The senior civil servant in the land, the cabinet Secretary Gus
O'Donnell, has drawn up guidelines that quite properly allow Brown to
remain in Number 10 until it is clear who has the best chance of
forming the next government. This process may last for days, or even a
week. It is entirely proper. The primary purpose of the arrangements
is to ensure that the work of the queen's government can be carried
on.

Indeed, the speculation about how a hung parliament should be handled
by the various parties, the civil service and the queen, has added to
the air of unreality around this election.

I would go as far as to say that it feels as though this contest in
Britain is happening on a different planet. The scale of the national
deficit and debt and the measures required to tackle both have barely
been mentioned. The voters seem incapable of handling the truth and
the parties do not want to break ranks and be the first to tell them.

Conclusions

    The Financial Markets are watching from the sidelines with
interested Intent. Other than Nationality there is apparently only a
small sliver of a difference with Greece's metrics. In fact, Greece
have a Nanny of Sorts in Nanny Merkel. I have found the greatest
breaks in the market come just after the Lull. The Reality right now
has the look and feel of Michael Jackson's Neverland about it. The
Bubble will be pricked, it is excruciating waiting for it to happen
but happen it will I am afraid.
Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

read more


Stocks, Euro Drop on Government Debt Concern; Oil Declines Bloomberg
World Of Finance

The MSCI World Index fell 2.6 percent yesterday, the most since Feb. 4

China’s Shanghai Composite Index declined 1.5 percent and Taiwan’s
Taiex lost 2.8 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index sank 1.6
percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index fell 1.3 percent. Markets in
Japan, South Korea and Thailand are closed today.

Philippine bonds, stocks and the peso fell after vote- counting
machines malfunctioned in tests this week, raising concern there will
be a delay in choosing a new leader to replace President Gloria
Arroyo. The Philippine Stock Index dropped 3.3 percent, the most in
almost 11 months, and the peso fell as much as 0.8 percent.

Conclusions

“A renewed wave of pessimism is sweeping markets,” said Mike Jones, a
currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. “Fresh
concerns over contagion from the Greek fiscal crisis are seeing risk
aversion soar. This is causing investors to ditch the euro in favor of
‘safe haven’ currencies such as the yen and the dollar.”

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance
World Currencies
Euro 1.2939 Chart Objective is 1.23 then 1.1760.
Pound 1.5127
Dollar Index 83.64
Higher Beta
Aussie 0.9079 Rate Hike no help in this broad based Risk Reversal
Real 1.7632
Rand 7.5675

The dollar rose more than 1% against the euro Tuesday as Europe's
shared currency fell to a fresh one-year low amid speculation that
Portugal and Spain may join Greece in seeking an international rescue
package.

Analysts also noted concerns about Greece's ability to make good on
its promise to adopt austerity measures.

Investors "recognize that even if the package for Greece does the
trick, a lower euro is still the likely consequence," said strategists
at Brown Brothers Harriman.
read more


Euro versus Dollar INO 1 Year chart
World Currencies
The Very long term charts look for 0.7980.
read more


Athens Composite slumps 6.683% Bloomberg Visual
World Of Finance
Value1,729.68
Change-123.870
% Change-6.683

Conclusions

That supremely anaemic Bounce had sell written all over it.
read more


World Equity Markets at a glance
World Of Finance
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 225.06 points, or 2%, to
10926.77, its worst daily decline in both point and percentage terms
since Feb. 4.
read more



Surviving the Age of Humiliation WSJ
Misc.
Steven Fink recently received an unsolicited email containing nude
photos of a woman whose jilted ex-boyfriend wanted to embarrass her.
The guy presumably hoped these private photos would go viral online,
and now countless strangers are obliging him in his mean-spirited
campaign.In the pre-Internet age, the dumped boyfriend may have
expressed his anger by throwing darts at her photo. These days,
however, the outlets for vindictiveness have multiplied almost to
infinity—and your reputation is more fragile than ever.

All of us now live under the threat of easy and instant humiliation.
It's no longer just celebrities and business executives who need to
think about aggressive reputation-protection and face-saving
techniques.

Not long ago, people who routinely plugged their own names into online
search engines were thought to be engaging in "vanity Googling." These
days, it is an act of self-preservation. "Google yourself at least
once a week," advises Richard Levick, who heads a strategic
communications firm in Washington, D.C. "You need to track what's
being said about you" on blogs, message boards and social-networking
websites.

Conclusions

A C21st Lesson.
read more


Easy Rider
Tourism, Travel & Transport
The Ghan train passes through the heart of Australia along the
1,852-mile route once traveled by camel train.
read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index fell 2.2%

Big Bout of Risk Reversal.
read more


Live Crude Oil chart 82.14 Last
Minerals, Oil & Energy
Oil futures closed below $83 a barrel Tuesday, pulled into their worst
one-day drop since early February by a rising dollar, falling U.S.
stocks and signs of cooler Chinese growth. Crude for June delivery
fell $3.35, or 4%, to $82.74 a barrel on the Comex division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest drop for oil futures in
three months, both in dollars and in percentage terms.
read more


Gold 24 Hour Live Spot Price KITCO 1167.70
Commodities
Conclusions

Stop Loss Protection type Trading Patterns. I look for 1225 then 1400.
read more



China's rebound may be cooling, data show Marketwatch
China
HSBC's survey, conducted in association with market research firm
Markit, reported a Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) reading of
55.4 in April, compared to 57.0 in March. The result, released Tuesday
morning, ranked as the weakest reading in six months.
read more


Soft Commodities at a Glance INO
Commodities
Front Cocoa -0.81%
Front Sugar -0.07%
read more


Sensex 16929 Last Yahoo Finance
Emerging Markets
Index Value: 16,928.72
52wk Range: 11,621.30 - 18,047.90
read more



South Africa All Share Bloomberg Visual 27,935 -2.427%
World Of Finance
Value27,935.85
Change-694.970
% Change-2.427

Conclusions

In Global Synchronised Sell offs it always asserts a High Beta correlation.

The Bigger Returns in Africa in 2010 are further afield.
read more


$ versus Rand Live Quote ForexPros 7.5689 Last
World Currencies
Conclusions

7.18/7.20 have proven its Resistance at least 3 times. The Range is 7.18-8.10.
read more


Nigeria All Share Index Bloomberg Visual 5.908% off 2010 High
Africa
Value26,843.14
Change389.940
% Change1.474

Conclusions

RenCap expect a 50% uplift from here in 2010 and so do I.
read more


TUNIS SE Index crosses 4900 4903.24 Last Bloomberg Visual
Emerging Markets
Conclusions

I expect a break through 5,000 independent of what happens Globally.
read more


Russian investors open first Uganda gold refinery Reuters
Commodities
The refinery, established by Russian-owned Victoria Gold Star Limited,
has a capacity to process 1.2 tonnes of raw gold per month, the
company's managing director told Reuters.

Yuri Bogoroditskiy said the company was attracted to Uganda because of
its location and relative political stability.

"Uganda is at the centre of the producers of gold: eastern D R Congo,
Tanzania, Rwanda and Kenya," Bogoroditskiy said.

"When we considered this to the fact that Uganda has a stable
political system and supportive investment policies then we decided it
was the best country to establish the refinery."

The east African economy's mineral industry is underdeveloped,
characterised by small scale miners mainly involved in gold and
cobalt, the leading mineral exports.

Earnings from the resources reached a high of $88 million in 2007
before slumping to $52 million in 2008.

The country exported 1.66 tonnes of gold in 2008, earning $35 million
from 3.56 tonnes and earned $75 million in 2007, according to a 2008
government report.
read more


The World Cup’s Stars Wear Their Flags—And Little Else—For Annie Leibovitz Vanity Fair
Misc.
For the June issue of Vanity Fair, Annie Leibovitz set out to capture
some of the sport’s biggest stars. Leibovitz’s portraits are, well,
revealing. And underwear has never looked so patriotic. In America,
these men might not enjoy the same name recognition as the stars of
the N.F.L.—that game that we call football—but for most of the planet,
they are more than just showstoppers. They are gods.

A. A. Gill, in his accompanying June-issue essay, captures just how
important football (don’t you dare call it “soccer,” he warns) and the
World Cup are to the 6.8 billion of us who live on Planet Earth.
“Football took to the world pitch at about the same time as the modern
independent nation-state,” Gill writes. “After a flag, a national
anthem, and a press release decrying Yankee imperialism, the next
thing newly minted nations do is build a stadium and come up with a
national grudge match.”
read more


Nairobi All Share Index Bloomberg Visual +22.283% 2010
N.S.E General
Value71.12
Change-0.180
% Change-0.252

Conclusions

The Retreat has been shallow and orderly so far.
read more


New rules heat up mobile phone wars Nation
Information & Communication Technology
Mr Joseph accused CCK of punishing success and using punitive
regulations to support less innovative rival companies.

Zain, Orange and Yu countered the following day with a joint
advertisement of their own in praising CCK and the government for
acting against “abuse of dominance” and ensuring that “consumers are
not exploited”.

“The regulator has a misconceived view on competition management and
has given far too much audience to the unfounded allegations being
made by sections of the industry,” said Mr Joseph on Tuesday evening

In an earlier interview, Telkom Kenya (Orange) chief executive Mickael
Ghossein, termed Safaricom’s market dominance a “dangerous situation,
and if the regulator doesn’t intervene, it will get worse”.

“It is curious to note that both Zain and Safaricom started their
operations at the same time, paid the same amount to enter the market,
and were allocated the same resources and indeed, Zain (then Kencell)
was the market leader for the first one year of its operations. The
new market entrants also came in fully aware of the dynamics of this
competitive market,” he insisted.

Conclusions

The CCK is having its Ear Bent obviously but the Route they are being
encouraged to take is wrong

It will have ripple effects on other Investors who will feel that the
Playing Field can be tilted.
There are more than 800,000 Shareholders who invested in this Company
and hardly expect the Government to start hobbling its success.
There might well be a Constitutional Argument.
read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar ForexPros Live Quote 77.55 Last
World Currencies
Conclusions

81.00-83.00 is Key and I do not expect a Break of that.
read more


Kenya tea prices gain at latest weekly auction Reuters
Commodities
The average price of Kenya's top grade Broken Pekoe Ones tea rose to
$3.72 per kg at this week's auction from $3.59 per kg last week,
traders said on Wednesday.

Africa Tea Brokers (ATB) said Best BP1s fetched between $4.08-$3.35
per kg compared with $3.86-$3.32 per kg at the previous sale.
read more


Njonjo withholds tithe The Standard
Law & Politics
Conclusions

This is in fact a Real Live Test of the Church's Muscle in Kenya.
read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

The NSE20 rebounded 38.03 points to close at 4243.57.
The NASI rallied 0.88 points to close at 90.54.
Market Cap was 1.054197 Trillion versus 1.044013 Trillion.
Volume surged to 519.492m versus 338.553m.

The Bourse remains entrenched in a Bull Move. Pull Backs are shallow
and narrow and we have just emerged from one. Volumes on draw down
Days are 50% of what we see on the Up Moves which is a classic Bull
Pattern. Safaricom is re asserting Leadership and will cross 6.10 12
month Highs any time now.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Above Average Harvests have met a Multi Year High Price Structure and
it is not rocket Science to extrapolate that the next set of Full Year
Results will reflect the most Purple of Purple Patches. Limuru Tea
reported +215% 2009 and that is the baseline.

Rea Vipingo rallied back 7.2% to close at 19.35 [It was low ticked
yesterday] and traded 2,200 shares. Demand is a multiple of that.
Sasini Tea firmed 0.605% to close at 15.20 and traded a 15.70 session
high and 87,800 shares.
Kakuzi closed at 76.50 and traded 1,500 shares.
Williamson Tea firmed 3.892% to close at 187.00 and traded 2,500 shares.
Kapchorua traded 300 shares at 140.00 plus a shilling.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume     35.654m
avg price     5.95 CLOSING PRICE 5.95 +2.95%
high price     6.00
low price     5.80
last price     5.95

Conclusions

Was the most active Counter at the Bourse in what was a high Volume
Bull Move Higher at the NSE. The Better Half heard MJ on Kiss and
relayed some MPESA and Data numbers that were put out by Michael and
extrapolating from that, I venture Safaricom is going to report Full
Year Earnings at the top of the Range. 6.10 is the 12 month high and
we are set to pierce that in short order.

Scangroup firmed 5.26% to close at 30.00 and was trading at 31.25
+9.65% session highs into the close. Scangroup is at an 18 month High
and the Ogilvy Transaction looks as if it is the Key with which Bharat
Thakrar can now unlock the SSA Universe. Scangroup traded 52,000
shares with Sellers making themselves scarce.

Nation firmed 3 to close at 143.00 and traded 15,500 shares.
Standard traded 3,000 shares and closed at 41..00 unchanged.

CMC Holdings rallied 1.56% to close at 13.30 and traded a 13.15-13.50
CARGEN did not trade.

Access Kenya dipped 0.78% to close at 19.05 and traded 126,400 shares.

Kenya Airways was unchanged at 56.50 and traded 42,500 shares.

TPS Serena traded 25,200 shares and closed at 63.00.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank traded 3rd at the Bourse. Equity Bank rallied a further
1.0692% to close at 18.70 and traded a 18.65-19.00 range and 4.756m
shares worth 89.002m. Buyers will continue to respond to the 1st
Quarter 2010 Earnings Report which confirmed a Serious Inflection in
the Earnings Curve.

StanChart firmed 1.015% to close at 199.00 and traded 11,500 shares.
We are set to cross and closed over 200.00 and that is a bullish
Development on the charts.
Barclays Bank was unchanged at 57.50 and traded a 57.50-58.50 range
and 169,900 shares.
KCB closed unchanged at 22.50 and traded 284,800 shares.
COOP Bank retreated 0.42% to close at 11..80 and traded 315,700 shares.

HFCK was unchanged at 22.25 and traded a 22.00-23.00 range and 283,700
shares worth 6.368m. Buyers have been encouraged by aggressive Talk
from Equity Bank but Dr. Mwangi does not have a reputation for over
paying and hence it has become a little twin sided.
CFC StanBic edged 25 cents higher to close at 49.75 and traded a
48.75-50.00 range and 104,700 shares.
NIC rose 1.2936% to close at 38.75 and traded 38,200 shares.
NBK was unchanged at 43.75 and traded a 43.25-44.25 range and 157,000 shares.
DTB was unchanged at 85.00 and traded 1,200 shares.

Kenya Re firmed 1.134% to close at 13.35 and traded a 13.25-13.55
range and 416,200 shares.
Jubilee traded 400 shares at 175.00.
PanAfric did not trade.

Centum firmed 0.5478% to close at 18.10 and traded an 18.00-18.30
range and 87,400 shares.

Olympia Capital is at 10.00



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

KENOLKOBIL announced a 10-1 Stock Split today before the market
opened. KENOLKOBIL firmed 3.31% to close at 93.50 but traded out the
session at 105.00 +16.02% session highs. KENOLKOBIL traded 123,100
shares worth 11.509m which ranked it 5th overall.
Total rose 1.6368% to close at 30.75 and traded 11,500 shares.

KPLC was the 2nd most active counter and closed unchanged at 179.00
and traded 565,300 shares [0.7425% of its Shares] worth 101.741m. KPLC
awaits further details of the Ratio of Exchange to be applied to the
GOK's Preference shares which ares set to be exchanged into Ordinary
Shares. The Degree of Dilution is key and yet to be revealed.
KENGEN rallied 2.83% to close at 16.35 and was trading at 16.50 +3.77%
into the close. KENGEN traded a session high of 17.00 and 489,500
shares worth 8.014m.
Cables closed at 21.50 and traded 8,500 shares.

Mumias Sugar traded 4th. Mumias Sugar firmed 0.765% to close at 13.20
and was trading at 13.45 +2.67% session highs into the close. Mumias
Sugar traded 1.949m shares worth 25.784m and the Recent Report citing
+15% in Sugar Crushed has encouraged the Bulls further.

EABL firmed a shilling to close at 169.00 and traded a 169.00-171.00
range and 23,300 shares.

Bamburi traded 200 shares at 186.00 +0.54%.
ARM was unchanged at 115.00 and traded 2,100 shares.
Portland traded 300 shares at 115.00 and unchanged.

BAT shaved off a shilling to close at 195.00 and traded 2,700 shares.

BOC was unchanged at 135.00 on 100 shares.
Carbacid eased 0.68% to close at 147.00 and traded 2,600 shares.
Crown Berger closed 2.7% lower at 36.00 on 2,700 shares.
Eveready was unchanged at 4.65 and traded 24,700 shares.
Sameer eased 1.56% to close at 9.45 and traded 39,800 shares.
Unga was unchanged at 11.50 and traded 13,600 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2010
 
 
 
 
 
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