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Morning Africa |
www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.
If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php
I do thank Godfrey of CNBC Africa and K24 for taking my Thoughts yesterday. Thanks.
My weekly Piece for The Star Safaricom the Regulator and Pinball http://bit.ly/9zaDNS
All the weekly Articles for The Star 2010 are here http://bit.ly/9vrHxU
Safaricom The CCK and Pinball Wizardry Voodoo Economics The Dubai Dream Equity Bank Africa Equities from #Cape to #Cairo
Macro Thoughts
1.1760 Euro
The Wizard of Oz.
I have been reading this Essay by Salman Rushdie about The Wizard of Oz. http://bit.ly/dfhovw
At the heart of The Wizard of Oz is the tension between these two dreams; but as the music swells and that big, clean voice flies into the anguished longings of the song, can anyone doubt which message is the stronger? In its most potent emotional moment, this is unarguably a film about the joys of going away, of leaving the grayness and entering the color, of making a new life in the “place where there isn’t any trouble.” “Over the Rainbow” is, or ought to be, the anthem of all the world’s migrants, all those who go in search of the place where “the dreams that you dare to dream really do come true.” It is a celebration of Escape, a grand paean to the uprooted self, a hymn—the hymn—to Elsewhere.”
But the Point he makes that interested me was about the Wizard who really is not a Proper Wizard.
And I cannot help feeling the Market is set to draw the Curtain on all this Wizardry and Money Printing.
And that we have to learn the same lesson that Dorothy learnt.
Home Thoughts
The Girls Grand Mother Passed through yesterday on her way from Blantrye to London. The Grand Daughters get very excited but tend to behave spectacularly differently around their GrandParents [My Father and Nishet's Mother]. I actually have found myself loafing around when the Girls speak to their Grand Parents because frankly I have found out I pick up quite a lot. Layla was recounting to her GrandMother how she had not done something very clever and Her Teacher told her
'Act your hair Colour!'
She told Grannie that she recounted this to her Friend [who was Blond] and got a Slap for her Troubles, which she felt grossly unfair because of the fact it was not her Insult.
Zubeida was saying there was an absolute Deluge when everyone landed at JKIA. She was telling me that Rose Massage [Her Masseuse - If you have ever read the Gunny Sack You might recall Roshan Mattress] is her Source of the absolute latest news in Blantyre. And in my Childhood, everybody had a Moniker. Jimmy Verjee otherwise known as Jimmy Fish. You could write a really good Book about it all. |
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The Brown paradox Independent Law & Politics |
Often warm and witty in private, capable of touches of grace (such as when he telephoned Peter Mandelson to offer condolences on his mother's death at the peak of one of their poisonous feuds), intellectually curious and literate, he could also be calculating, rivalrous, single-mindedly ambitious and witheringly aggressive to those perceived, not always rightly, as his opponents. He was a man capable of unleashing, in the words of his Chancellor Alistair Darling, long one of his staunchest allies, "the forces of hell" at those who incurred his disapproval. It is a testament to the force and timing of yesterday's announcement that the memory of his many "psychological flaws" (a term almost certainly attributable to Tony Blair's press secretary Alastair Campbell) will be counterbalanced – perhaps more than counterbalanced – by the service he has now performed for his party. It will also, for all his faults, reinforce his deserved status as a big figure, undoubtedly a member of the post-war Premier League of politicians.
The late Lord Jenkins warned some eight years ago in an interview with The Independent that "tail-end Charlies"– those who become prime minister at the end of a long period of rule by their party – can often have an unhappy time. Among that club of ex-PMs, Brown did not – perhaps fatally – follow the example of Anthony Eden and call an election almost as soon as he took office. But nor has his career ended with any of the ignominy of Eden's. He is leaving with dignity, having fought a gallant, dogged campaign to save Labour from eclipse. And as is its way, the party is going to feel exponentially better about him now.
Conclusions
He wore his Heart on his Sleeve in the last 12 months. It was practically Shakespearean. Being so close to the Main prize all those years then finally being given the Poisoned Chalice. Not having the Strength and Singularity of Mind to go for it when he might have pulled it off and watching it all slip from his Grasp. However, he has now played his Trump Card and it is one that will gain him respect and might well upend the Cards that were apparently dealt. Aly-Khan Satchu www.rich.co.ke |
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Did a Big Bet Help Trigger 'Black Swan' Stock Swoon? WSJ World Of Finance |
Shortly after 2:15 p.m. Eastern time last Thursday, hedge fund Universa Investments LP placed a big bet in the Chicago options trading pits that stocks would continue their sharp declines.On any other day, this $7.5 million trade for 50,000 options contracts might have briefly hurt stock prices, though not caused much of a ripple. But coming on a day when all varieties of financial markets were deeply unsettled, the trade may have played a key role in the stock-market collapse just 20 minutes later.
The trade by Universa, a hedge fund advised by Nassim Taleb, author of "Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," led traders on the other side of the transaction—including Barclays Capital, the brokerage arm of British bank Barclays PLC—to do their own selling to offset some of the risk, according to traders in Chicago.
Then, as the market fell, those declines are likely to have forced even more "hedging" sales, creating a tsunami of pressure that spread to nearly all parts of the market.
The tidal wave of selling fed into a market already on edge about the economy in Europe. As the selling spread, a blast of orders appears to have jarred the flow of data going into brokerage firms, such as Barclays Capital, according to people familiar with the matter.
Stock trading's main venue is no longer the New York Stock Exchange but rather computer servers run by companies as far afield as Austin, Texas; Kansas City, Mo.; and Red Bank, N.J
Through the trading desks at Barclays, Universa bought 50,000 options contracts, according to people familiar with the matter. The contracts would pay off about $4 billion should Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fall to 800 in June. It was at 1145 points at the time of the trade.
Conclusions
Black Swan is a very good Book. |
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ World Currencies |
Euro 1.2715 Could not hold 1.30+ Sterling 1.4781 - crossed 1.50 momentarily Dollar Index 84.51 Higher Beta Aussie 0.8965 Rand 7.5275 Real 1.7710 - sharp bounce
In the market's early euphoria about the plan, Europe's shared currency briefly surged back above the $1.30 level. After backing off from that high point, the euro /quotes/comstock/21o!x:seurusd (CUR_EURUSD 1.2708, -0.0078, -0.6100%) traded at $1.2777 in afternoon North American trading, compared with $1.2714 on Friday.
Conclusions
That is the Very Definition of a Dead Cat Bounce. |
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Now Blooming: Mota on Flowers WSJ Misc. |
Carlos Mota, editor-at-large for Elle Décor and general man about town, believes every room should have flowers. "It's not just a pillow and a throw. It adds something to the room," Mr. Mota said by phone this week. "A big part of interior styling is using flowers."
"Sometimes flowers and flower people can be intimidating, but I'm not intimidated by anything, darling," Mr. Mota said.
Mr. Mota was asked how a man should approach flowers. Should a straight man, for instance, send another straight man a bouquet? "I would probably recommend just sending a plant," Mr. Mota said. "A bonsai, an orchid, a little bamboo. A cactus could be funny. You know, rules are made to be broken."
What should a straight man send a woman? "The sky's the limit," he explained. "Anything goes. If it's a business occasion, I would go for simple and safe, like two dozen of one thing. If you're not so sure, just pick your favorite color."
And how should straight men use flowers in their apartments? "Every person's a different world," Mr. Mota said. "But a plant can change the whole room. I would probably have a big palm tree. It's not fussy and it's masculine." |
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Live Crude Oil chart 76.33 Minerals, Oil & Energy |
Light, sweet crude oil for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $76.80 a barrel, up 2.3%, or $1.69 a barrel. Still, crude regained only a fraction of the $11 a barrel it shed in a near 13% rout last week on concerns over euro-zone sovereign debt and growing oil stockpiles which left June crude Friday at the lowest level since Feb. 12 |
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China’s April Inflation Accelerates, Lending Surges Bloomberg China |
China’s inflation accelerated, bank lending exceeded estimates and property prices jumped by a record, increasing pressure on the government to raise interest rates and let the currency appreciate.Consumer prices rose 2.8 percent in April from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 18 months, and property prices jumped 12.8 percent, the statistics bureau said in statements today. New lending of 774 billion yuan ($113 billion), announced by the central bank, was more than any of 24 economists forecast.Asian stocks pared gains on concern that Chinese officials will move to cool the fastest-growing major economy, while yuan forwards rose. China’s top priority should be preventing excessive increases in asset prices and liquidity after Europe’s almost $1 trillion loan package reduced the risk of another global slump, central bank adviser Li Daokui said yesterday.
“Price pressures have been building throughout the economy, strengthening the case for higher interest rates and a stronger yuan,” said Brian Jackson, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Royal Bank of Canada. “China is at risk of overheating, with spot fires breaking out in various parts of the economy.” |
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Telecom Firms Thrive in Somalia Despite War, Shattered Economy WSJ Africa |
MOGADISHU, Somalia—Banks barely existed in this war-torn African nation a decade ago. Now, Somali residents can bank over their mobile phones.
The rapid evolution of technology in Somalia—and people's access to it—comes as several telecommunications companies here jockey for customers amid the absence of any government-regulated phone or Internet access. The competition to supply phone service has stoked the nascent revival of Somalia's shattered economy, and it shows that some complex businesses can thrive even in one of Africa's least developed markets.
The success of Somalia's telecom sector isn't all that unusual for a war-shattered economy, experts say. In countries with shaky economic foundations, such as Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, telecommunications companies have stepped in to provide missing infrastructure.
In these environments, "the first ones who put in electricity generators in rural areas are the telecom operators," says Svet Tintchev, a World Bank expert on the telecom industry in developing countries. "In a way, their leverage goes beyond pure telecom service."
One of the largest, Hormuud Telecom Inc., has sales of about $40 million a year, substantial in a country where an estimated 70% of the population lives on less than $2 a day. Hormuud declined to disclose its profit.
Hormuud's chief executive, Ahmed Mohamed Yusuf, started his business selling bread, spaghetti, sweets and other groceries. He later opened a popular supermarket.
The United Nations estimates that in 2007 the East African nation's economy expanded 2.7%. Per-capita GDP, at $291 a year, remains among the lowest on the poverty-stricken continent.
To navigate Somalia's tangled web of clan alliances, Hormuud sells shares to all interested parties. In this way, the connection to Hormuud cuts across the country's warring groups, leading Somalis from nearly every clan to feel vested in the company, says Mr. Yusuf, who often surfs satellite news channels in his Mogadishu office [That is a Part of the Plan that I was sort of promoting to the Prime Minister and on BBC World Service]
Conclusions
I would venture that the Mobile Phone has proven to be the Silver Bullet when it comes to Africa. As You can see from the dates in the Article it is very late cycle but it has now arrived. In Kenya, there were 15,000 Phones 10 Years ago and in 2010, we will probably surpass 20m. This is no small Potatoes. It is in fact practically a Laboratory Experiment.
Viewing things from Another Continent it is difficult to comprehend the Mobile Phone's importance in Africa. It is like the Entry Ticket to the c21st and has connected Africans to themselves and to the World.
The Resilience of the African Economies can also be seen to be part of this Mobile Revolution. There is a very bottoms up Bottom of the Pyramid Entrepreneuralism that it has triggered. Today a Farmer in the remotest Village can glean a pretty good idea of where the Market is. He could not before. These might appear small and insignificant improvements but taken together they are beginning to gain the Momentum of a Tsunami Wave.
More than All the Aid [and maybe here to we can upend the Architecture of Aid by pointing Aid right down to the Individual Mobile Phone] that Africa has received, it is the Phone which is lifting this Continent up by its Bootstraps.
Aly-Khan Satchu www.rich.co.ke |
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Kenyan economy at risk from shrinking biodiversity: UN Reuters Kenyan Economy |
"To the economy of a country like Kenya, biodiversity is not a luxury. It is one of the pillars of its national economy," Steiner told reporters in Nairobi, where the UNEP is based.
"For example, if the migration stops at Masai Mara game reserve it will be such a shock for the Kenyan economy."
"Kenyan tourism is largely biodiversity based ... and provides employment to hundreds of thousands if not millions of people," said Steiner, speaking at the global launch of a report on the state of the world's biodiversity.
The once-extensive Mau forest has been seriously degraded by human actions, the report said. The forest is one of the main catchment areas, known as the water towers, of Kenya.
"This situation is threatening the very existence of the ecologically and economically important Masai Mara game reserve, and the Sondu Miriu and Mara rivers," the report said, adding the rivers are a lifeline for some of east Africa's major lakes.
Experts say the Mau complex has lost some 107,000 hectares (264,400 acres), or about a quarter, of its trees over the last two decades due to conversion to farmland, illegal settlement, logging and charcoal burning encouraged by corrupt officials.
Conclusions
The Overarching Test is that of the National Interest. Then everything becomes very clear.
Sunrise over the Mau Wildlife Direct http://bit.ly/aQbkew |
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Kenya's Boghal-1 well showed gas, no oil: minister Reuters Minerals, Oil & Energy |
China's CNOOC Boghal-1 well in Kenya found no oil but showed strong indications of gas, the east African country's Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi told Reuters on Tuesday.
"They did not find any oil, but there are strong shows of gas," he said, adding that CNOOC would now test whether the quantities of gas were commercially viable.
The Boghal-1 well in Kenya's northeastern region is the 32nd to be drilled in the country. |
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Kenya: The Silicon Valley of Banking? Day 2 at the WEF Africa Fast Company Information & Communication Technology |
With that perspective in mind, the conversation turned again and again to M-Pesa and the growing revolution in mobile banking in Africa. A number of speakers predicted that, given the success of M-Pesa, Nairobi will emerge as the next tech hub on the continent, competing with South Africa. One speaker even referred to Kenya as the "Silicon Valley of Banking" adding that "100 countries in the world are looking at Kenya" to learn about the future of a cashless economy. Make no mistake, this is a huge potential market. There are an estimated 1.7 billion people globally who have access to mobile phones but no current banking services. Africa is adding 35,000 new mobile banking customers a day, most of whom have never banked before. The trick is to reduce the on-boarding costs, which are around $10 per banking customer.
Conclusions
Mpesa has been simply a Runaway success. The Parabolic Growth Curve is evidenced in Safaricom's Numbers which can be found here http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTU%3D And an Interview with Michael Joseph the CEO of Safaricom here http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/wrapup.php
I am glad you picked up on This Disjunctive Moment and Inflexion Point in the Curve of African History. I happen to believe the Mobile Phone [and recall the Internet and Mobile Banking are coming through this Pipe] is the Silver Bullet for this Continent. It is the Entry Ticket for 1b Africans to join a c21st that will be characterised as an Information Century.
Many Economists now speak of the Resilience of African Economies. I reckon the Mobile has been worth 3% of GDP on average across SSA. It has been the Catalyst for a Bottoms Up Entrepreneuralism which is just noteworthy. One cannot underestimate the Mobile and its Effect in Africa.
Aly-Khan Satchu www.rich.co.ke Nairobi |
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Kenya’s Masinga Dam Spilling Over After Heavy Rains Bloomberg Africa |
Kenya’s Masinga dam, the holding reservoir for four power plants, is spilling over following heavy rains, said Kenya Electricity Generating Co.Water has surpassed the optimum of 1,056.5 meters (3,466 feet) above sea level, the company’s managing director, Edward Njoroge, said in an e-mailed statement today.
“The dam, the main reservoir for the Seven Forks cascade, went up from 1,023 meters above sea level in September 2009 to hit 1,056.5 meters on May 7,” Njoroge said.
KenGen, as the company is known, has increased generation to 12 GigaWatt Hours per day from 4.6 GigaWatt Hours in September, Njoroge said. A year earlier, water flows into the reservoir were at their lowest since 1949. KenGen shut down the 14-megawatt Masinga Power Station because of prolonged drought, the company said in a statement on June 30.
Hydro-electric plants account for about 65 percent of Kenya’s generating capacity. The country had scheduled power cuts between Aug. 6 and Oct. 22 last year because of the drought. |
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N.S.E Today |
The NSE20 closed 10.73 points easier at 4226.63. The NASI was down 0.32 points at 89.79. Market Cap was 1.045522 Trillion versus 1.04926 Trillion. Equity Turnover was 271.68m versus 244.195m.
The Market has come a little lower over the last few sessions and turned defensive more on the CCK Safaricom Contretemps rather than anything external.
The Move lower has been on low volume and weakness has been more concentrated in the Likes of KCB which has gone from testing the top of its Range to testing the lower end in a few short sessions. |
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
Sasini Tea closed at 15.05 and traded 423,800 shares. Kakuzi traded 2,000 shares and closed at 78.50. Rea Vipingo traded 1,200 shares and closed at 19.00 |
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
SAFARICOM
shares volume 4.998m avg price 5.67 Closing Price 5.65 -1.74% high price 5.80 low price 5.60 last price 5.65
Conclusions
Safaricom has retreated from 6.00 since the CCK Safaricom Contretemps flared up. I expect this to be the Long and Short of it on the Pull Back unless The Rhetoric turns South. I expect very muscular Full Year Results and a Test of the 12 month highs at 6.10 before or coincident with that Earnings Release.
Safaricom share price data from www.rich.co.ke http://bit.ly/4cdZRM
Par Value: 0.05/- Closing Price: 5.75 Total Shares Issued: 40,000,000,000 Market Capitalization: 230,000M EPS: 0.27 PE: 21.296
Half Year Results Commentary Tidbits
MPESA 7.99m Active Subscribers versus 4.14m +93% -> now 17.7% of Revenue versus 10.8% Thats a 8.1% expansion Sep 2009 versus Sep 2008 but a sequential increase of 60% from the immediate preceeding 6 months
Car and General reported 6 month results +38.106% and the Forward PE is less than 5. The Price had already anticipated strong results and firmed a further 2.8% to close at 55.00. 3,000 shares were traded. The shares are tightly held. CMC Holdings rallied 1.8285% to close at 13.90 and was trading at session highs of 14.00 +2.56% into the close. CMC Holdings traded a further chunk of shares this time 854,300 shares worth 11.874m. It is clear that there has been not an Immaterial Change on the Share register.
Access Kenya retreated another 3.77% to close at 16.55. Access Kenya traded a 16.20-17.00 range and 261,200 shares. Access Kenya is negative 18.99% over 12 months.
Access Kenya share price data from www.rich.co.ke http://bit.ly/4zIr3s
Par Value: 1/- Closing Price: 17.20 Total Shares Issued: 206,331,216 Market Capitalization: 3,549M EPS: 0.76 PE: 22.632
Kenya Airways was unchanged at 56.00 and traded a 55.50-57.00 range and 334,400 shares worth 18.747m.
ScanGroup was unchanged at 32.50 and traded a 32.50-34.00 range and 66.400 shares. It looks well supported at 30.00 post Ogilvy.
Nation was marked down 1.45% to close at 136.00 and traded 14,200 shares. Standard lost 25 cents to close at 40.75.
TPS Serena edged 0.79% easier to close at 62.50 with 10,600 shares changing hands. |
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Kenya Commercial Bank was the most active counter at the Bourse. KCB retreated 6.024% to close at 19.50 and traded a 19.05-20.50 range and 1.989m shares worth 38.81m. KCB was unable to test the top of its range at 24.00 and now has retreated to the bottom of the range. At a Price of 19.50 The Trailing PE is in single digits at 9.5121.
KCB share price data here www.rich.co.ke http://bit.ly/bshUrU
Par Value: 1/- Closing Price: 20.75 Total Shares Issued: 2,217,777,664 Market Capitalization: 46,019M EPS: 2.05 PE: 10.122
Equity Bank dipped 0.26% to close at 19.00 and traded a 18.95-19.20 range and 703,400 shares worth 13.382m. Barclays Bank bounced 0.86% to close at 58.50 and traded a 59.50 high and 124,700 shares. Stanchart firmed 0.5% to close at 201.00 and traded 6,500 shares. Offers are thin. COOP Bank eased 0.42% to close at 11.95 and traded 582,300 shares.
Centum rallied a further 1.325% to close at 18.95 and traded a session high of 19.20 and 420,400 shares worth 7.975m. Centum has returned 89% over 12 months
CFC StanBic surged 7.5394% to close at 53.50 and was trading the Session Finale at 54.50 +9.55%. CFC Stanbic traded 22,200 shares. Its up 20% since announcing its results. NIC closed unchanged at 38.75 on good volume of 333,100 shares worth 12.972m. The 1st Quarter Earnings Release marked an Acceleration. DTB was unchanged at 86.50 and traded 12,300 shares. HFCK was unchanged at 22.50 and traded 82,600 shares. NBK closed 0.58% firmer at 43.00 and traded 74,300 shares.
Kenya Re retreated a further 2.28% to close at 12.85 and traded a 12.60-13.00 range and 159,200 shares. The Price has slipped post the Earnings release. Jubilee closed at 169.00 and traded 12,200 shares. PanAfric closed +7.14% at 60.00 and trades on a PE of more than 20.00.
Olympia Capital traded 1,700 shares and closed at 10.15.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
Mumias Sugar traded 2nd at the Bourse. Mumias Sugar drifted 0.74% lower to close at 13.40 and traded a 13.25-13.60 range and 2.759m shares worth 37.081m. Mumias Sugar has returned 231.572% over 12 months and is one of the best Performing Counters at the Nairobi Bourse.
Mumias Sugar share price data from www.rich.co.ke http://bit.ly/4WJWWK
Par Value: 2/- Closing Price: 13.50 Total Shares Issued: 1,530,000,000 Market Capitalization: 20,655M EPS: 1.05 PE: 12.857
Commentary from Half Year
Six months to Dec 2009 versus six months to Dec 2008 Revenue 8.9608246b versus 6.202941b +44.46% EPS 0.68 versus 0.11 +518%
KPLC rallied 2.1733% to close at 188.00 and was trading at a session high of 195.00 +5.98% at the Finish Line. KPLC traded 25,900 shares. This is a 21 month closing High and a Breakout on the charts. KENGEN was the 4th most active Counter. KENGEN rallied 0.89% to close at 16.95 and traded a 16.50-17.00 range and 1.278m shares worth 21.693m. Eddie Njoroge Esquire is saying that the Masinga Dam is overflowing and this turnaround in Hydrology [It was a Drought last year] is certain to assist the Bottom line. Cables closed at 21.50 and traded 13,600 shares.
Portland rallied 7.89% to close at 123.00 on 6,200 shares traded. Bamburi Cement closed 2.15% better at 190.00 on 7,800 shares. The Large slew of shares that was cleared at 185.00 looks to be completed and hence the move higher. ARM rose 0.86% to close at 116.00 and traded 8,800 shares.
KENOLKOBIL slipped a further 2.67% to close at 91.00 and traded 59,100 shares. The KPC Triton case outcome has brought the price down just over 10%. Total traded 36,600 shares and was unchanged at 30.75.
EABL shaved off a shilling to close at 170.00 and traded 48,900 shares.
BAT improved by a shilling to close at 197.00 and traded just 1,900 shares. Carbacid traded 2,800 shares at an unchanged 149.00. Boc Gases did not trade. Crown Berger fell back a sharp 6.47% to close at 32.50 and traded 1,700 shares. Eveready shaved off 5 cents to close at 4.60 on 102,100 shares. Sameer eased 3.27% to close at 8.85 and traded 70,600 shares. Unga traded 53,400 shares at an unchanged 12.45.
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