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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 12th of May 2010

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here

The Round Table discussion Re Africa on the BBC Peter Ndoro

Macro Thoughts

Please note where Gold is trading. I look for 1400.
The Euro is headed to 1.1760.

Home Thoughts

Verbatim Transcript.

Hannah to her Mum - You are not hugging me.
Mum to Hannah - Yes I am.
Me to Hannah - Come over Here and get a Real Hug.
Hannah to Me - Your Hugs are too squishy squashy. She does have a
point with me being over 200 Pounds.

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Cameron Becomes Premier as Clegg Accepts Coalition Bloomberg
World Currencies

“We have deep and pressing problems,” Cameron said following his
arrival at the prime minister’s Downing Street residence 90 minutes
after Gordon Brown’s departure last night. “For those reasons, I aim
to lead a proper and full coalition. That’s the right way to provide
this country with the strong and stable, good and decent government
this country needs.”

They’ll propose 6 billion pounds ($9 billion) of cuts within 50 days
to reduce a record budget deficit, raise the threshold to pay income
tax, study a split between retail and investment banking and increase
the Bank of England’s oversight of the financial industry,
Conservative officials said.

With 363 lawmakers in the 650-seat House of Commons, the two-party
government may ease investor concern that last week’s inconclusive
vote would leave Britain with a leader too weak to fix U.K. finances.
The pound and gilts rose yesterday after reports that Cameron was set
to succeed Brown.

Sterling added 0.7 percent to $1.4956 before slipping to $1.4928. The
10-year gilt yield fell 4 basis points to 3.88 percent.

“A Conservative-Liberal democrat coalition is the market’s favorite
outcome,” said Philip Shaw, chief U.K. economist at Investec Plc in

U.K. government debt will rise to 77 percent of gross domestic product
this year and may approach 100 percent by 2014, Standard & Poor’s
says. The rating company cut its outlook on the U.K.’s AAA grade from
stable in May 2009, saying debt may rise to a level incompatible with
its top assessment.

At 43 years and seven months, Cameron is the youngest U.K. leader
since 1812. Tony Blair was four days short of his 44th birthday when
he took office in 1997.

Mr. Cameron then went to Eton where it was reported that, as
punishment for getting caught smoking marijuana, he was made to copy
500 lines of Latin text.


Sterling is no longer a Knee Jerk Sell.

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Statecraft as Psychiatry New Yorker
Law & Politics

The Afghan President had a way of speaking as if for effect—the
President is shocked! the President is resolved!—like an inexperienced
actor trying out for Richard II. Holbrooke, all business, tried to
wade through the theatrics and keep the discussion focussed on what
diplomats call the Afghan government’s “challenges.” It did not seem
like what diplomats call a productive exchange. (After lunch, I was
told by one of Holbrooke’s aides that the banquet room was the scene
of the murder of a previous Afghan head of state during a palace coup,
a detail that somehow seemed relevant to the situation of Hamid

And now Karzai is in Washington for a weeklong visit. He will be feted
and toasted by the highest officials in the land, enjoying what
reporters call a “charm offensive.” Obama will give Karzai a full day
of his time

Wars that hinge on an unstable, highly personalized relationship
seldom come to a satisfying end. This relationship in particular has
come to resemble that of an exhausted mental health professional and a
beleaguered patient who suffers from chronic delusions. The shrink
doesn’t know whether to work with the delusions or puncture them, and
he keeps switching between one approach and the other because neither
shows any sign of succeeding.

“We get into relationships that give the leaders of countries the
strength of their weakness.” In other words, the weak, corrupt,
erratic rulers of countries where the U.S. is at war can simply dare
the Americans to end their support. “We can collapse the whole thing,
but that’s all we can do,” Carney said. “What other leverage do we
have?” In other words, we’re stuck with Karzai.


The Fatal Flaw of the President's Good War resides in the Choice of
Point Man that he was dealt. Aly-Khan Satchu www.rich.co.ke

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2635 New Target 1.1760
Pound 1.4894 On the Sidelines
Dollar Index 84.75
Aussie 0.8940
Real 1.7887
Rand 7.5349 - I expect a bias towards 8.00 versus 7.00

read more

Live Dollar versus Pound ForexPros 1.4895 Last
World Currencies


Sidelined and watching Developments.

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Greece Athens Composite Index Bloomberg Visual
World Of Finance

% Change-2.473


Trades Heavy.

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Metz hopes rub of Pompidou's 'magic lantern' will bring tourists The Guardian
Tourism, Travel & Transport

The new Pompidou centre offshoot in the north-eastern French city of
Metz Photograph.

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Duke Ellington’s music The New Yorker

The basement club was cramped, and the bandstand was so small that, by
the drummer’s measure, it could hardly hold a fight. The clientele
included mobsters, musicians, and star performers from the nearby
Broadway shows, slipping in among the crowd from the time the band
appeared, at about ten o’clock, straight on “until.” The banjoist who
provided the schedule could elaborate no further about how long the
night went on: “Until you quit. Until period.” After 3 A.M., you
couldn’t get a seat. In the fall of 1926, the craze for Negro music
was already sending savvy white New Yorkers up to Harlem, but the
Kentucky Club, on West Forty-ninth Street, had the hottest band in
town. Trumpets, trombone, saxes, clarinet, tuba, banjo, and drums—nine
or so players, huddled on the stand beneath the pipes that ran along
the ceiling, plus the handsome young piano player who led the group
while dancers surged around him on the floor. But the band did more
than keep the temperature high and the dancers moving; its
arrangements were so startling that even a familiar number like “St.
Louis Blues” sounded new. Variety capped a gushing review of the
“colored combo” by noting that the club’s patrons—transfixed “jazz
boys” and civilians alike—spent a remarkable amount of time just
sitting around and listening.

Duke Ellington: Take The "A" Train You Tube Enjoy!

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Downtown Art Show Sends Meat Packing WSJ

Jonathan Horowitz's 'If Slaughterhouses Had Glass Walls,' part of the
'Go Vegan!' exhibit at Gavin Brown's enterprise.

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold futures settled at a record high on Tuesday and then sped past
$1,233 in late electronic trading. Gold for June delivery, the most
active contract by volume and open interest, added $19.50, or 1.6%, to
close at $1,220.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York
Mercantile Exchange.Gold for May delivery, the front-month but more
thinly traded contract, also rose $19.50, or 1.6%, to $1,219.90 an
ounce by the end of floor trading.

Both settlements were records. On Dec. 3, the front-month contract at
the time settled at $1,217.40 and the February contract, then the most
active, closed at $1,218.30 an ounce, according to exchange records.

read more

Business: A change in gear By Stefan Wagstyl FT
Tourism, Travel & Transport

Pulling rank: a London cab with a Chinese makeover. The vehicles, such
as this one seen in Tiananmen Square, are produced by indigenous
carmaker Geely and the British company in which it owns a stake.

In Europe Geely, the Chinese carmaker, is finalising a $1.8bn (€1.4bn,
£1.2bn) acquisition of Volvo, the Swedish manufacturer. In Africa,
India’s Bharti Airtel is set to become the world’s fifth-largest
mobile phone operator through the $10.7bn purchase of the regional
assets of Zain, the Kuwaiti telecommunications group. In the US,
Reliance Industries, India’s biggest private sector company, is
completing a $1.7bn joint venture with Atlas Energy after narrowly
failing in Europe with a $14.5bn bid for LyondellBasell, a Dutch
chemicals group.

Meanwhile, after last year’s slump, exports from emerging economies
are recovering at break-neck speed, rising last month in China, for
example, by 30 per cent.

Companies from emerging economies are back on the move. They “have
come out of the crisis better than developed world corporates”, says
Chris Hemmings of the PwC consultancy.

But there is no doubt which way the economic winds are blowing. “From
my new base in Hong Kong, the shift from west to east is clearer than
ever,” Michael Geoghegan, chief executive of HSBC, one of the world’s
biggest banks, said last week. “In developed markets, the risks of
double-dip recession and stagnation haven’t gone away. In contrast,
recovery in emerging markets looks secure.” said Mr Geoghegan, who
this year moved from London to Hong Kong.

Driving emerging market companies are their domestic economies. While
developed countries’ gross domestic product contracted 3.5 per cent
last year and are expected to record sluggish growth of about 2.5 per
cent in 2010, the emerging world avoided recession and is forecast to
bounce back to a healthy 6.3 per cent this year. While policymakers in
the developed world fret about stagnation, their emerging market
counterparts worry about inflation.

For South African companies, raised on links with the west, investing
in Africa is a new “orthodoxy” says Jacko Maree, chief executive of
Standard Bank, the country’s biggest.


Their advance has now become a charge

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Chinese bank to invest $1 bln in Zambia power plant Reuters
Minerals, Oil & Energy

China plans to spend $1 billion to help build a power plant to boost
Zambia's electricity supply by 600 megawatts, a senior official in
Africa's top copper producer said on Tuesday.

Jiang Chaol Liang, president of the China Development Bank, said China
was ready to provide equity amounting to $1 billion for the Kafue
Gorge Lower power plant.

Construction of the plant was expected to begin next year, and will be
completed in 2017.

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SABMiller Makes Beer Can to Cut Waste, ‘Missile’ Use Bloomberg
Retail & Manufacturing

SABMiller Plc patented an easy-to- open beer can that converts into a
drinking cup when the top has been removed, part of an effort by the
world’s second-largest brewer to reduce waste and violence at sporting
events The container will be introduced at the World Cup soccer
tournament that starts in South Africa next month, Norman Adami, the
managing director of SABMiller’s Johannesburg-based unit, told
reporters in the city today. SABMiller then plans to expand the use of
the can at sporting events in the U.S. and Europe.

The fully recyclable can will help cut back on potential “missiles”
that belligerent spectators sometimes throw during events because it
can be used to get refills once opened, Adami said. It will also
decrease the use of glass and plastic at stadiums where beer is poured
into glasses, he said.

SABMiller, which dominates South Africa’s beer industry, is
capitalizing on Anheuser-Busch InBev NV’s decision to restrict sales
of Budweiser to stadiums rather than World Cup fan parks.The parks,
equipped with giant screens and bars, are being set up by World Cup
organizers to cater to fans unable to get tickets for games, which
start on June 11. The venues will serve a combined 280,000 people a
day during the tournament, according to FIFA, soccer’s worldwide
ruling body.

The 440-milliliter (13-ounce) can will be sold under SABMiller’s
Castle Lager brand, typically aimed at the low- to middle-income
market, Adami said.

World Cup-related investments by SABMiller in South African townships
have totaled 170 million rand ($22 million), including 40 million rand
for its “Castle Kingdoms” initiative that will see 40 taverns
upgraded, the company said in an e-mailed statement today.

SABMILLER share price data

52-Wk High (04/27/10)2,090.000    
52-Wk Low (05/14/09)1,189.000    
1-Yr Return67.333


Looks Rich on a PE Basis.

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Sudan's south finally able to slake its thirst for beer The Guardian
Retail & Manufacturing

he lager was launched last year by the London-listed drinks giant
SABMiller, which has built a £32m modern factory in the sweltering
southern capital, Juba.

Investing so much in what was the town's first manufacturing facility
of any kind may have seemed a major risk. There were questions over
the stability of Southern Sudan so soon after the civil war. There was
also strong competition from Kenyan and Ugandan brews that had flowed
across the border since the conflict with the Islamic-dominated
northern government ended in 2005.

But the gamble seems to have paid off – thanks in no small part to patriotism.

Together with Nile Special, another brand produced in the Juba
brewery, White Bull has captured two-thirds of the mainstream beer
market, selling 2.5m bottles a month, at 70p each.

read more

Dollar versus Rand Live ForexPros 7.5382 Last
World Currencies

The Rand declined as much as 2.2 percent to 7.6628 per dollar before
trading 0.8 percent weaker at 7.5563 by 5:06 p.m. in Johannesburg. The
currency surged 3 percent Monday, the biggest gain since Nov. 4, 2009.


We are mid Range 7.18 versus 7.92.

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South Africa All share Index Bloomberg Visual 27513.98 -0.55% 2010
World Of Finance

% Change-0.534

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South Africa May Raise Growth Forecast, Gordhan Says Bloomberg
World Of Finance

South Africa’s Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan  said the economy may
expand more than forecast this year, while calling for greater efforts
to find work for the one in four without a job.

Africa’s largest economy will expand 2.3 percent this year and 3.2
percent in 2011, according to the Feb. 17 budget, after contracting
1.8 percent last year. The estimates will be revised in the mid-term
budget in October.

“Preliminary data suggest that we will see moderate economic growth
this year, perhaps somewhat higher than we projected in February,”
Gordhan said

read more

Ghana All share Index Bloomberg Visual +25.753% 2010

% Change2.011


As I have said severally before, this is a Bourse to be close to Limit Long.

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Kibaki and Raila will go ‘village to village’ The Nation
Law & Politics

President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga on Tuesday promised a
village-to-village campaign to drum up support for the proposed


My Straw Poll this early Morning of the Cleaners and the Nightwatchmen
[who are my early morning Companions] was 75% NO.

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Zambia kwacha decline not "worrisome": c.bank [Copper refers] Reuters
World Currencies

A  nearly 5 percent fall in Zambia's kwacha in the last week was due to
foreign risk aversion from Europe's debt crisis and was not "very
worrisome", central bank governor Caleb Fundanga said on Wednesday.

The currency of Africa's biggest copper producer stood at 4,940
against the dollar on Wednesday, compared to 4,760 a week ago. At its
lowest, on Friday, it hit a nine-month low of 5,130.

Fundanga said the Bank of Zambia had intervened in the foreign
exchange market, but only to provide liquidity and avoid "big changes"
in price.

read more

Egypt GDP growth could hit 5.3 pct in 2009/10 Reuters

Egypt on Monday said its economy grew by an annualised 5.8 percent in
the three months to end-March, driven by improvements in
manufacturing, tourism and Suez Canal revenues.

It was the fastest pace of growth for Egypt in two years, Osman said.

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StanChart in talks to buy Nedbank: Sky Reuters
World Of Finance

Emerging markets focused bank Standard Chartered is in talks to buy
South African bank Nedbank, Sky television reported on Wednesday, in a
potential $10 billion deal.

Nedbank shares rose 3.2 percent and Old Mutual, which owns a stake in
the South African firm, gained 3.2 percent.

Standard Chartered declined to comment.

Sky said talks had taken place between Standard Chartered and Nedbank,
although they were at a relatively early stage.

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INTERVIEW-ICC prosecutor targets up to six Kenyans Reuters
Law & Politics

"The plan is to present the two cases with six people before the end
of the year and then we hope to have the hearings in 2011," he said in
an interview. "We will select the worst incidents ... There are more
persons responsible, yes, I've got evidence against 20 more, yes, but
I will select two or three."

"I am following the evidence. I present criminal investigations, not
political analysis," he said. "My only job is to end impunity for past
crimes and prevent future crimes."



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KenGen to spend Sh1bn on dam Nation
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Kenya Electricity Generating Company says it would invest Sh1.1
billion to raise Masinga Dam wall by 1.5 metres.The expansion will
enable it hold two billion litres of water.
This would be a 25 per cent increase in capacity from the current 1.6
billion litres for the dam which plays reservoir to four power
plants.Water in Masinga Dam on Tana River, is spilling after reaching
its full capacity level of 1,056.5 meters as heavy rainfall continues
to pound Aberdares and Mt Kenya catchment areas.Consequently, the
power producer had to hold 1,524 million cubic metres of water to
avoid flooding downstream.

A Photograph at Masinga Dam last Year Flickr

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N.S.E Today

The Bourse remains in a Bull Channel and this is evidenced by the
shallow Pull Backs. Buyers stepped in to pick up the slack today and
the NSE 20 closed 15.16 points better at 4241.79.
The NASI was 0.15 points firmer at 89.94.
Market Cap was 1.047214 Trillion versus 1.04552 Trillion last time.
Equity Turnover was 205.204m versus 271.68m.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Sasini Tea closed 0.33% easier at 15.00 and traded 404,800 shares.
Kakuzi traded 2,000 shares at 78.00 -0.64%.
Rea Vipingo traded 1,900 shares at 19.00 unchanged.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


shares volume     11,655,600
avg price     5.65 closing Price 5.65 Unchanged
high price     5.70
low price     5.55
last price     5.65


A Buyer Stepped and was 5.65 Bid all day and mopped up the Slack
Supply. 6.10 is the 12 month High and I expect a test of this ahead of
the Results as long as the CCK contretemps dies down, which seems to
be the received Opinion.

Access Kenya edged 5 cents better to close at 16.60 and traded 204,500 shares.

Scangroup was unchanged at 32.75 and actually traded shares at 35.00
which I believe is its all time high. 35,300 shares were traded.

CMC Holdings rallied 2.877% to close at 14.30 and traded a 14.80
session high and 87,200 shares.
Car and General pushed a further 1.81% better to close at 56.00 and
traded 3,000 shares.

Kenya Airways edged 50 cents lower to close at 55.50 and traded 123,900 shares.

Nation closed 1.47% easier at 134.00 and traded 1,200 shares.
Standard did not trade.

TPS Serena eased 2.38% to close at 61.50 and traded 28,400 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

CFC Stanbic ramped 8.415% higher to close at 58.00 and was locked at
limit 58.50 +9.35% for the most Part of the Trading Session. CFC
StanBic is responding to the 1st Quarter Earnings Release which was
150% ahead of the Equivalent Period Last Year. Clearly an Impressive
and Muscular Rebound.

KCB was the 2nd most active Counter today at the Bourse. KCB eased
back a further 1.0266% to close at 19.30 and traded a 19.00-19.50
range and 885,900 shares worth 17.114m. KCB has retreated from close
to the Top of its Trading Range to the Bottom of it in a few short
sessions. This Area has been strong support all through this Year and
last. KCB trades on a Trailing PE of 9.512 which is the least
expensive of the Big Cap Banks.

KCB share price data from www.rich.co.ke

EPS:            2.05
PE:                9.512

Stanchart [where the Parent is apparently sizing up a NED BANK SA
Acquisition] rallied 1.5% to close at 204.00 and traded 7,100 shares.
Stanchart trades on a PE of 11.979.
Barclays Bank was unchanged at 58.50 and traded a 58.50-59.50 range
and 247,300 shares worth 14.511m. Barclays Bank trades on a Trailing
PE of 13.00.
Equity Bank eased 0.26% to close at 18.95 and traded a 18.80-19.10
range and 537,900 shares worth 10.215m. Equity Bank is on a Trailing
PE of 16.667 as Buyers price in a materially lower Forward PE post the
1st Quarter Earnings release which evidenced a sharp Acceleration of
over 40%.
COOP Bank eased back 0.42% to close at 11.90 and traded an 11.85-12.00
range and 892,000 shares worth 10.646m. COOP Bank trades on a PE of

DTB retreated 2.3066% to close at 84.50 and traded an 82.00-86.00
range and 38,700 shares.
HFCK retreated 4.4022% to close at 21.50 and traded 93,800 shares and
Sellers have now taken some of the Froth off associated with a
potentially Acquisitive Equity Bank.HFCK was trading at 20.25 at the
Finish Line.
NBK was down 2.33% to close at 41.50 with just 9,000 shares traded.
NIC eased 1.29% to close at 38.25 and traded 17,400 shares.

Kenya Re dipped a further 0.78% to close at 12.75 and traded 67,100
with an Overhang of shares for sale of about 350,000 shares showing.
Jubilee traded 300 shares all at 175.00 +3.55%
PanAfric traded 600 shares unchanged at 60.00 and this is a PE of
20.00 which is 4x more expensive than Kenya Re and more than twice
Jubilee's PE of 9.22. Looks Plain anomalous.

Centum retreated 1.58% to close at 18.65 and traded 51,100 shares.
They look to have offloaded a great deal of KCB at some way above the
current Price in some commendable Footwork given where the KCB price
is currently residing.

Olympia Capital closed at 10.75.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Kenya Power rallied 4.26% to close at 196.00 and was trading at 199.00
+5.85% into the close. KPLC traded 43,400 shares worth 8.52m and
Investors continue to anticipate a favourable outcome to the Balance
Sheet Restructuring where the GOK's Preference shares are set to be
exchanged into Ordinary shares. The Pertinent Issue remains the Degree
of Dilution but the market trades as if it is set to be generous for
Shareholders on the Register.
KENGEN was unchanged at 16.95 and traded a 16.70-17.25 range and
598,000 shares worth 10.161m. The KENGEN Bond was the Breakthrough
Transaction for the Company in that it gave an Ante with which to sit
down at the Table and with which they could leverage their not
immaterial Capex Requirements.
Cables was unchanged at 21.50 and traded 16,300 shares.

KENOLKOBIL rebounded 4.4% to close at 95.00 and was trading session
Highs of 100.00 +9.89% into the finish. 76,100 shares worth 7.254m as
Buyers pushed back post the KPC Triton Court Case Reverse
Total closed at 30.75 on 2,600 shares.

ARM closed 2.5875% firmer at 119.00 [120.00 is long term resistance
and a move through there which looks imminent Bullish] and traded
120.00 most of the session. ARM traded 59,000 shares.
Bamburi Cement rallied 3.156% to close at 196.00 and traded a 198.00
high and 3,800 shares. A Great Deal of Supply was cleared at 185.00
and hence the upside traction.
Portland did not trade.

Mumias Sugar was the 3rd most active Counter. Mumias Sugar traded a
13.00-13.40 range and eased back 1.495% to close at 13.20 with 1.022m
shares worth 13.495m traded.

Crown Berger which had been a big Gainer ahead of its strong Results
slumped 7.69% to close at 30.00 on 5,000 shares traded today.

EABL eased 1.18% to close at 168.00 and traded 3,900 shares only.

BAT traded 900 shares at 198.00 +0.51%.

BOC Kenya was unchanged at 134.00 on 800 shares.
Carbacid traded 2,300 shares at 150.00 +0.67%.
Eveready closed at 4.65 +1.09% and traded 38,600 shares.
Sameer was unchanged at 8.85 and traded 32,300 shares.
Unga closed lower at 12.20 and traded 17,300 shares.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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May 2010

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