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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 13th of May 2010

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here

The BBC World Service Radio Discussion about Africa and the Economy

Macro Thoughts


Home Thoughts

In the Game Park I really enjoy This Type of View Amboseli

You never know what might be at the End or on the sides. I find it a
great Pleasure the anticipation. Its very relaxing.

read more

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2663 bailout merely transfers to damage from the individual
countries to the entire EU region
Pound 1.4863 Did not get much of a Relief Rally
Dollar Index 84.62
Aussie .9010 Australia’s job growth accelerated in April
Rand 7.465 Stronger on talk of Stanchart acquisition of Ned Bank
Real 1.7719


Higher Beta outperform. Euro is I believe headed to 1.1760.

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World Equity Markets At a glance
World Of Finance

The Dow ended 148.65 points higher at 10896.91, about 29 points above
its close last Wednesday, before the "flash crash." Asian stock
markets were higher Thursday, with sentiment buoyed by Wall Street's
gains. The Nikkei rose 1.5% on solid earnings reports

read more

Athens Composite share Index Bloomberg Visual -25.55% 2010
World Of Finance

% Change0.824

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Spanish PM makes debt crisis U-turn with emergency cuts Guardian
World Of Finance

Spain's prime minister, José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero, performed a
radical U-turn in his policy of trying to survive the financial crisis
without applying painful measures by announcing emergency cuts to
civil service pay and public investment this morning.Civil servants
will have their pay cut by 5% this year, with a freeze next year.
Zapatero and members of his socialist government will take a 15%
cut.There will also be cuts in spending on child welfare, home care
for the elderly and a freeze on some pensions next year.A total of
€6bn (£5.1bn) of investment spending will disappear over the next two
years as part of an attempt to cut a further 1.5% off next year's
deficit in order to bring it down to 6% of GDP in 2011.

"Today is probably Zapatero's toughest day as prime minister," said El
País newspaper's Fernando Garea on his blog. "It is the day that his
claim that this government could get through the crisis without cuts
in social spending fell apart."


Helped Sentiment in the Equity Markets.

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Rigged-Market Theory Scores a Perfect Quarter: Jonathan Weil Bloomberg
World Of Finance

In a feat that would seem to defy the odds, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan
Chase and Bank of America this week each said its trading desk made
money every day of the first quarter. Goldman said its daily net
trading revenue topped $100 million 35 times last quarter out of 63
trading days. JPMorgan and Bank of America disclosed similar
eye-popping stats. Citigroup, too, recorded a profit on each trading
day, Bloomberg News reported, citing unnamed people who knew the

However they did it, the data suggest it was as easy last quarter as
hitting the side of a barn with a baseball from three feet away.

This isn’t the way “trading” works in the real world. A simple
exercise in measuring probabilities is instructive here.

Let’s say you manage a highly leveraged, diversified investment fund,
and have become so skilled at playing the markets that you have a 70
percent probability of making money any given trading day. This would
be a remarkable achievement in most markets. The odds that you would
post a daily net gain 63 times in a row, though, would be about one in
5.7 billion. The formula for calculating  this is: 1/(0.70 to the 63rd

Even if you had a 95 percent likelihood of a winning day, you would
have only a 3.9 percent chance of doing it 63 trading sessions in a


And That is why Goldman Sachs is such a cheap share. They are the
House and the House always wins.

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Obama Burgers Battle Ralph Lauren’s Luxury Meats in Paris Bloomberg
Food, Climate & Agriculture

Lauren, world famous in fashion circles has hired a French chef to
make American hamburgers in Paris.

“Ralph has no reputation in burgers,” says Jonathan Goldstein, whose
20-year-old chain of three Coffee Parisien soda-fountain-grub
restaurants in 2009 served 120,000 hamburgers at 14.50 euros ($18.40)
a fistful; 7,558 bottles of Heinz ketchup; 8,454 jars of Gulden’s
Spicy Brown mustard and 90,000 cans of Coca-Cola.

“This escalates the Paris burger wars,” Goldstein says of the 27 euro
Black Angus burger with “heirloom” tomato slices that Lauren offers
folks shopping in his new five-floor Left Bank emporium.

Even by the often daft luxury standards of Paris -- where Louis
Vuitton sells calf-leather diaper bags for $1,300 and around $700 buys
a fourth-hand Christian Dior dog collar -- there’s something
exceptionally balmy about the business of the bespoke Francoburger.

“The French were once ashamed to be seen eating a burger,” Goldstein
recalls as a waitress pokes a paper U.S. flag on a toothpick into
Coffee Parisien’s signature double- decker Obamac. “Now Ralph has
joined every Michelin chef who’s trying to nobilize it.”

Yet the learning curve remains long and lean. “Many French chefs think
they can just grill steak tartare,” Goldstein says, holding a lump of
the ground beef served raw and infused with onions and capers. “Not
enough fat here. Cooks too dry.”

Still, Goldstein says he was miffed that Lauren failed to infiltrate
Coffee Parisien, where the French prefer their burgers rare (3 minutes
on each side) with a Coke: Americans call for well done (5 minutes on
each side) with a bottle of root beer. At Le Dali, the Allenoburger is
seasoned with pricey fleur de sel, cooked rare on a griddle greased
with virgin olive oil and mostly served with a robust Margaux.

“I’m not happy with Ralph,” says Goldstein, who says his regular
customers include Michelin one-star chef Helene Darroze. “He aspires
to upgrade the burger to the level of French gastronomy, so he goes
and steals a chef from the Bristol.”

Standing beneath a painting of a horse, the 27-year-old Castellet
explains the stylistic discrepancies between French and American
burgers. “The principle of the French hamburger is ‘montage,’ putting
together fine ingredients like truffles and foie gras with pure
Charolais meat,” he says. “The American hamburger requires 20 percent
grease, many napkins and is eaten in 10 minutes or less.”


Burgers I would not mind tasting.

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Publishing Baron Barron’s Estate Listed at $55 Million WSJ

The property also includes a dock where the current owner keeps his
yacht. Photos

Clarence Barron purchased Wall Street Journal publisher Dow Jones &
Co. in 1902 for $130,000. His former estate in Cohasset, Mass., about
20 miles south of Boston, just hit the market for $55 million.

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold futures surged to a fresh record Wednesday as nervousness
surrounding the European rescue package and its effects in the global
economy showed no signs of abating.Gold for June delivery, the most
active contract, gained $22.80, or 1.9%, to $1,243.10 an ounce on the
Comex division of the New York Stock Exchange. That's the highest
settlement for a most-active contract since gold futures started
trading in 1974. Silver rode in the coattails of gold's success to
trade at its highest price since March 2008.


Gold is the tangible currency of last resort.

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Gold 24 Hour Continuous Spot Price KITCO 1237.60 Last


1400 is the next Objective as we are in all time Highs since Gold
Futures started trading.

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Crude Oil June 2010 1 month Chart INO
Minerals, Oil & Energy


Absolutely Pounded lower in a strong 2 week sell off.

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Warhol Sells for $32 Million, Rothko $31 Million at Sotheby’s Bloomberg

Fashion designer Tom Ford sold a purple, 9-foot-square, 1986 Andy
Warhol “Self-Portrait” for $32.6 million tonight, as Sotheby’s  New
York contemporary-art auction had a buoyant start.

The Warhol’s high presale estimate was $15 million. Mark Rothko’s
nearly 8-foot-tall 1961 “Untitled,” estimated for $18 million to $25
million, went for $31.4 million.

read more

China to lend Zambia mining firms $5 bln: report Reuters

China will provide $5 billion in loans to private mining companies in
Zambia as Chinese companies continue to increase their influence in
Africa's top copper producer, President Rupiah Banda told state media
on Wednesday.Banda said the medium-term and long-term loans would be
provided to private companies operating in Zambia under an agreement
signed between the ministry of mines and the China Development Bank,
the state-run ZANIS news agency said.

"The Zambian private sector should work with their Chinese
counterparts in order to access resources from the $5 billion
funding," Banda said at a signing ceremony for the lending facility in
Livingstone, about 500 km south of capital Lusaka.

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Uganda economy to grow 5.6 pct in 2009/10: IMF Reuters
East Africa

Uganda's economy is likely to grow 5.6 percent in the fiscal year
ending in June 2010 and by 6.4 percent in the 2010/11 year, the
International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.Headline inflation is
expected to drop to 5.0 percent at the end of the current fiscal year
from 12.3 percent at the end of 2009/10, the IMF said in a statement.

"Growth is expected to reach 5.6 percent for 2009/2010, but should
rebound quickly over the next couple of years," the IMF said.

Headline year-on-year inflation fell to 5.9 percent in April from 7.5
percent in the previous month.

The IMF said Uganda, which has maintained macroeconomic stability, was
aiming to increase its domestic revenues and rely less on concessional
loans. Aid accounts for about 30 percent of Uganda's annual budgetary

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South Africa All Share Index Bloomberg visual +1.85% 2010
World Of Finance

% Change2.414


Bounced off Scratch for the Year.

read more

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg Visual +33.591% 2010

% Change0.413


28029 is the 2010 High Note Well I remain very constructive on this Bourse.

read more

Ghana All Share Bloomberg Visual +26.094% 2010

% Change0.303


Probably the Bourse I am most constructive on ahead of an absolute
spike towards 20%+ GDP Rates.

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Kigali’s real estate boom Business Daily
RealEstate, Housing & Construction

“The recent increase in foreign investments has created a shortage of
high-end office space with fully equipped telecommunications,
utilities, and power,” the board said noting that from 2003 to 2006
alone rent in high-end office buildings increased between 50-200 per

“In Kigali alone, demand for housing is about 8,000 to 10,000 units
per annum. The combined demand for housing country wide is estimated
to be 25,000 units per annum,” Rwanda’s Infrastructure ministry


I have not got the Empirical Data but SSA [Blantyre, Mombasa, Nairobi,
Kinshasa, Lagos and Juba is my sample] has posted some startling
absolute Returns and I see the trajectory being maintained.

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Telecoms rules to be reviewed The Nation
Information & Communication Technology

The Ministry of Information and Communications and the Communications
Commission of Kenya announced on Wednesday that some terms in the
rules needed further clarification and clearer definition.The twist is
in response to differing concerns raised by players in the industry
towards the Kenya Information and Communications Regulations 2010.

One of the issues that the Information minister said would be
addressed was that of dominance and particularly the definition of the
statement ‘abuse of dominance’.

“Not that we have had any such cases in the past but we want to
eliminate any future possibilities of such happening in the industry,”
said Mr Samuel Phogisio.

“A referee in any match must clearly define the rules of the game to
avoid unnecessary legal tussles and unfair decisions that in the long
run may undermine the growth of the industry,” he said in Nairobi.

The announcement may appear like a win for Safaricom which had last
week said the new rules were aimed at its position.

It accused CCK of allegedly trying to penalise them for their huge success.


Safaricom the CCK Penalising Success Rewarding Failure The Star [and
some Pinball Wizardry]

That is a softening of the Rhetoric.

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COOP Bank reports 1st Quarter 2010 results here +36.36% from www.rich.co.ke
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          11.90
Total Shares Issued:          3,492,369,920
Market Capitalization:        41,559M
EPS:            0.85
PE:                14.000

Swot Analysis

1st Quarter 2010 EPS 0.3 versus 0.22 last time
11.90 / [0.3 x 4] = 9.9166 Forward

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Diamond Tust reports 1st Quarter 2010 results here +28.205% from www.rich.co.ke
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Par Value:                  4/-
Closing Price:          84.50
Total Shares Issued:          163,037,104
Market Capitalization:        13,777M
EPS:            7.67
PE:                11.017

Swot Analysis

EPS 2.00 versus 1.56 = +28.205%
84.50 / 8 = 10.5625 Forward

read more

Nairobi NSE20 Bloomberg Visual +30.612% 2010
N.S.E General



4482 is the next Resistance Level on the charts and where I believe we
are headed. Pull Backs remain shallow and the Bull Channel very much

read more

Kenya post-election violence case 'unstoppable' BBC
Law & Politics

The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor has said his case
against perpetrators of Kenya's post-election violence is

"I selected the worst incidents, I collected evidence about what
happened, how they were committed, and according to the evidence, I
will find who is the most responsible for these crimes."

read more

Nigeria president 'chooses Namadi Sambo as deputy' BBC
Law & Politics

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan has named Kaduna state governor
Namadi Sambo as his new vice-president, an official has told the
BBC.Mr Sambo, 57, must now be approved by both houses of
parliament.The move follows the death of President Umaru Yar'Adua and
the swearing-in of his successor Mr Jonathan last week.Whoever is
named as vice-president is seen as a strong contender for the 2011
presidential elections in Africa's most populous nation, analysts
say.It remains unclear whether Mr Jonathan will seek to contest the
elections on behalf of the governing People's Democratic Party
(PDP).Mr Jonathan is a southerner and the PDP has said its candidate
will be a northerner - continuing its practice of alternating power
between north and south.Mr Sambo is from the north but there have been
strong suggestions that Mr Jonathan may try to overturn the PDP

BBC's Caroline Duffield in Lagos says Mr Sambo is relatively unknown
and does not have a big power base.But she says he is likely to be
confirmed by the Senate, which is expected to meet later on Thursday.

read more

Louise Leakey on what ancient fossils tell us about our future Smart Planet

It’s quite difficult when you live in this part of the world to work
and focus on old bones when there are so many things that one could
get involved in that you feel would actually make a real difference to
the country and to the world. But to discover fossils of our ancestors
dating back four million years ago provides the much needed evidence
of our ancestry and provides an understanding that today we are but
one species that share a common origin and a common future. It helps
us to understand how easy it is for a species to go extinct. Today we
are faced with a massive number of people on this planet and we’re
fast changing our landscape and causing the extinction of much of the
natural world. In order to survive as a species, we have to control
our numbers. This is something that we have failed collectively to do
and it has devastating consequences which we understand, but seem to
do very little about.

read more

N.S.E Today

This was a High Volume day where the Bourse traded 823.529m versus
205.204m last time.
The NSE20 closed 9.41 points better at 4251.20.
The NASI rose 0.45 points to close at 90.39.
Market Cap was 1.053757 Trillion versus 1.047214 Trillion.

Safaricom was the outsize Traded Counter with its 2nd biggest Volume
day this Year. Banks have been releasing 1st quarter 2010 Results and
the Narrative is pretty uniform and confirming a muscular 2010
Rebound. COOP put out results running 36.16% of the previous year.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Sasini Tea was unchanged at 15.00 and traded 51,700 shares.
Kakuzi was unchanged at 77.00 and traded 17,400 shares.
Rea Vipingo was unchanged at 19.00 on 300 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


shares volume     75,166,600
total turnover      426,268,320
avg price     5.67 Closing Price 5.65 Unchanged
high price     5.80
low price     5.65
last price     5.70


Safaricom had its 2nd highest Volume day today in the last 5 months
[see Volume charts via www.rich.co.ke] and traded 51.875% of the
Volume in what was a high Volume Day at the Nairobi Bourse. Safaricom
was unchanged at 5.65 because a big slug of shares were traded at 5.65
near the Off. Safaricom was trading 5.70-5.75 most of the Session.
Results are imminent and I expect a push through 6.10 12 month highs
before or immediately after that Earnings Release. CCK obviously
remains relevant to this Projection.

Safaricom share price data from www.rich.co.ke

Access Kenya rallied 4.096% to close at 17.40 and was trading at 18.25
+9.94% session highs into the close. Access Kenya traded 401,800
shares and Had Demand at the close for about 700,000 shares. It was
the most oversold Counter at the Bourse.

Scangroup gave up 5.348% on a bout of profit taking to close at 31.00.
Scangroup yesterday traded an all time high of 35.00. Today 74,400
shares were traded and Supply was about 2.5 x that of Demand.

Nation closed 0.75% better at 135.00 and traded 37,500 shares.
Standard closed at 40.50.

Kenya Airways came back 1.8% to close at 54.50 and traded 24,600 shares only.

TPS Serena edged 50 cents higher to close at 62.00 and traded 30,000 shares.

CMC Holdings edged 5 cents better to close at 14.35 and traded 87,200 shares.
CARGEN did not trade with a small number of shares being offered at limit Down.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

OOP Bank reported 1st Quarter 2010 running at 36.36% ahead of the
equivalent 1st Quarter Last Year. COOP Bank rallied 1.68% to close at
12.10 and traded a 12.50 session high. COOP Bank traded 1.515m shares
worth 18.378m.

Barclays Bank rallied 2.56% to close at 60.00 and traded a 59.00-64.00
range and 376,200 shares worth 22.755m. Buyers are looking at the
Banking Results tape and extrapolating, The session high of 64.00 was
a new 52 week high.

KCB was the 2nd most active Counter and firmed 2.07% to close at
19.70. KCB traded a 19.30-20.75 range and 4.676m shares worth 92.33m.
KCB has bounced off its key support level around 19.00 and this has
held through 2009 and 2010 to date. KCB trades at a single digit PE at
this price, just and is the cheapest Big Cap Bank on that metric.

Equity Bank was the 3rd most active Counter and closed at 19.00 +0.26%
and traded an 18.90-19.10 range and 3.485m shares worth 66.225m.
Equity Bank is well supported at these levels since the 1st Quarter
Earnings Release which evidenced a sharp acceleration in the Earnings

Equity Bank share price data from www.rich.co.ke

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:          18.95
Total Shares Issued:          3,702,777,088
Market Capitalization:        70,168M
EPS:            1.14
PE:                16.623

Stanchart was unchanged at 204.00 and traded shares as high as 220.00.
Stanchart traded a 200-220.00 range and 45,100 shares worth 9.203m.

CFC rallied a further 1.7094% to close at 59.00 and traded a
55.00-62.00 range and 255,500 shares worth 15.149m. The 1st Quarter
Turnaround was +150% which has excited Buyers as they look through the
Merger Noise.
DTB reported 1st Quarter 2010 Earnings +28.205% and edged 0.59% higher
to close at 85.00 and traded just 3,200 shares.
HFCK was unchanged at 21.25 and traded 34,300 shares. The Price is
looking for further direction and probably from Equity Bank's Dr.
James Mwangi.
NBK firmed 1.19% to close at 42.50 and traded a 43.75 high and 48,400 shares.

Kenya Re was unchanged at 12.75 and traded a 12.60-12.90 range and
Jubilee eased a shilling to close at 174.00 and traded 2,400 shares.
PanAfric was unchanged at 60.00 and traded 1,200 shares.

Centum closed 1.066% firmer at 18.85 and traded a 18.50-19.80 range
and 209,000 shares.

Olympia Capital rowed back 7.91% to close at 9.90.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL closed 1.785% firmer at 171.00 and traded a 168.00-172.00 range
and 252,500 shares worth 43.396m. EABL is well supported here.

KENOLKOBIL rallied 5.266% to close at 100.00 and was trading a 104.00
+9.47% session high into the close. KENOLKOBIL'S MD Seligman rebuffed
the reports that had alleged that the Firm had written the Lower Court
Triumph re KPC into their Accounts and would have to reverse the Entry
on the recent Court Reverse. The Price has been responding to that
Total was unchanged at 31.25 and traded 16,600 shares.

KENGEN closed 0.5808% stronger at 17.05 and traded a 17.00-17.40 range
and 2.262m shares worth 38.687m.
KPLC firmed a shilling to close at 197.00 and was trading at 199.00
+1.53% into the Finish. 45,900 shares worth 9.084m.
Cables eased 1.16% to close at 21.25 and traded 13,400 shares.

Mumias Sugar edged another 0.76% lower to close at 13.05 and traded a
12.70-13.25 range and 1.757m shares worth 22.932m.

BAT was unchanged at 198.00 and traded a 200.00 session high and
43,900 shares worth 8.694m.

Bamburi Cement was ticked 2.55% lower to close at 191.00 and traded
ARM was unchanged at 119.00 and bid at 120.00 into the close which is
a bullish development on the charts. ARM traded 11,600 shares.
Portland traded 2,400 shares at 120.00 -2.44%.

Carbacid was unchanged at 150.00 and traded 3,700 shares.
BOC Kenya did not trade.
Crown Berger rebounded 4.995% to close at 31.50 and was trading at
33.00 +10.00% at the finish. Crown traded 12,700 shares.
Eveready dipped 1.08% to close at 4.60 and traded 28,200 shares.
Sameer closed at 9.00 +1.69% and traded 12,200 shares.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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