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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 17th of May 2010
 
Morning
Africa

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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

My Weekly Piece for The Star The Sick Man of Europe
http://bit.ly/az7VFf

Macro Thoughts

The Age of Turbulence has returned with a vengeance.

Euro 1.1760 then 1.0950 then 1.00
Gold 1400

Home Thoughts

I was given a wonderful Fortnum and Masons Hamper one Christmas and we
kept it all these Years. And yesterday, I found it and with it lots of
Books which I had forgotten I owned and various DVDs. I was a little
child like all weekend and with Exams looming for the children I was
left to my own Devices and read The Heart of the Matter again by
Graham Greene and we all watched Monsoon Wedding which I still feel is
Mirabai's best Film. The Film is based around an Indian Wedding and it
is rather good and touches on nearly everything. Layla turned to me
and said, look the Dad is broke [at one point he tries to borrow some
cash from his Golfing Buddies]. She says Mine will be very expensive,
no short cuts, are you prepared ?

Dance Clip from Monsoon Wedding You Tube
http://bit.ly/9J4puH

I am in Mombasa tomorrow with the Folks from the World Bank. I will
endeavour to put something out but allow me some leeway.

read more


China's Private Party WSJ
China

Communist party and state leaders—including President Hu Jintao,
center, and Premier Wen Jiabao, fourth from left—attend a gathering in
Beijing on Feb. 12.

On the desks of the heads of China's 50-odd biggest state companies,
amid the clutter of computers, family photos and other fixtures of the
modern CEO's office life, sits a red phone. The executives and their
staff who jump to attention when it rings know it as "the red
machine," perhaps because to call it a mere phone does not do it
justice. "When the 'red machine' rings," a senior executive of a state
bank told me, "you had better make sure you answer it."

The red machine is like no ordinary phone. Each one has just a
four-digit number. It connects only to similar phones with four-digit
numbers within the same encrypted system. They are much coveted
nonetheless. For the chairmen and women of the top state companies,
who have every modern communications device at their fingertips, the
red machine is a sign they have arrived, not just at the top of the
company, but in the senior ranks of the Party and the government. The
phones are the ultimate status symbol, as they are only given
out—under the orders of the Party and government—to people in jobs
with the rank of vice minister and above.

Possession of the red machine means you have qualified for membership
of the tight-knit club that runs the country, a small group of about
300 people, mainly men, with responsibility for about one-fifth of
humanity.

Deng Xiaoping's crafty stratagem, laid down two decades earlier, about
how China should advance stealthily into the world—"hide your
brightness; bide your time"—had been honored in the breach long before
Ms. Clinton's arrival. China's high-profile tours through Africa,
South America and Australia in search of resources, the billion-dollar
listings of its state companies (including PetroChina and the
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China) on overseas stock markets, its
rising profile in the United Nations and its sheer economic firepower
had made China the new focus of global business and finance since the
turn of the century. China's star was shining more brightly than ever
before, even as its diplomats protested they were battling to be heard
on behalf of a relatively poor, developing economy.

read more


The Age of Political Risk by James Surowiecki The New Yorker
Law & Politics

It seems crazy: the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia holds an
election, and Americans’ 401(k)s go haywire. But that’s not a bad
shorthand description of what’s happened to the stock market over the
past few weeks. What links the two is the Greek debt crisis

In March, people were talking about a commitment of twenty-two billion
euros. By early May, the E.U. and the I.M.F. planned to come up with a
hundred and ten billion euros. Now more countries need bailouts and
the total cost is seven hundred and fifty billion. The initial
estimates were certainly too low, but, had Merkel acted sooner, the
bill could have been a lot cheaper.

Political risk adds new complexity to markets, and, as Nassim Taleb,
the author of “The Black Swan,” recently said to me, “As the system
gets more complex, it becomes harder to forecast.”

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2272 4 Year Low
Sterling 1.4326
Dollar Index 86.81
Higher Beta Currencies
Aussie 0.8769
Real 1.7970
Rand 7.6150

Conclusions

On the present trajectory, the euro will lurch toward parity with the
U.S. dollar and through it before year-end, then disintegrate.

read more


Euro versus Dollar 1 Month Chart INO
World Currencies

1.1760 is the next Objective on my Charts.

read more





A Perfect Porsche, Philosophically Speaking WSJ
Tourism, Travel & Transport

Screaming into a top-down tornado at 130 mph in the Porsche 911 Turbo
Cabriolet, I am reminded—as I'm sure most people are—of Thomas
Aquinas.
To wit: When is a thing perfect, complete, finished—when does Porsche
drop the paint brush and walk away from the canvas? When will one more
stroke diminish the whole?The medieval philosopher, riffing on
Aristotle, argued that a thing is perfect when it lacks nothing (the
Greek "teleos," or completeness, approximates the Latin "perfectio")
and that it ultimately attains its purpose.

Well, man, if this car isn't there I'll eat my skullcap. Let's count
it out: 500 hp; 0-60 mph in a forebrain-flattening 3.3 seconds; top
speed of 194 mph; a nice even 1 g of lateral grip; all-wheel drive.
Throw in a great canvas top and 24 miles per gallon fuel efficiency,
and an exhaust note that sounds like the Kraken gargling 50-year-old
Glenfiddich, and it begins to appear as if the long history of the
Porsche 911 has to come to some sort of immense, satisfying
conclusion. I mean, even if you regard this thing as merely a
bald-spot delivery system for rich dudes, it does that mission so
exceeding well. Aren't we flirting with the best of all possible
sports cars here?

read more


The "Skyline," a 2007 installation consisting of 19 refrigerators by Kader Attia
Misc.

Part of the "Dreamlands" exhibition at the Centre
Pompidou, in Paris. Source: Centre Pompidou via Bloomberg

read more



Gold 24 Hour Continuous Spot Price Quote KITCO 1240.60 Last
Commodities

Keep Buying Pull Backs as we saw Friday, we are going a lot higher.
1400 is the next Objective.

Crude Falls Below $70/Bbl; First Time In 10 Months.

read more




China Stocks Plunge Most Since August on Property Curbs, Europe Bloomberg
China

The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 136.69, or 5.1 percent, to close
at 2,559.93, the lowest since May 4, 2009. Today’s decline is the
biggest since Aug. 31, when the gauge fell 6.7 percent on concern a
slowdown in lending growth would slow economic growth. The CSI 300
Index retreated 153.31, or 5.4 percent, to 2,714.72.

The Shanghai index has lost 22 percent this year, the world’s
fourth-worst performer among the 93 gauges tracked by Bloomberg, on
concern the government will keep tightening monetary policy to contain
inflation and avert asset bubbles. The measure on May 11 entered a
bear market after falling 21 percent from its Nov. 23 high.

read more


Sensex 16574 Last -2.47 Yahoo Finance
Emerging Markets

Index Value:    16,571.62
Change:    Down 422.98 (2.49%)

Sensex Bovespa and Dow 3 month chart Yahoo Finance
http://yhoo.it/b1fCvQ


read more


South Africa All share Index Bloomberg Visual -1.17% 2010
World Of Finance

Value27,342.35    
Change-699.500     
% Change-2.494

Conclusions

Back in the Negative Column for the Year.

read more



Egypt EGX30 Index Bloomberg Visual +7.82% 2010
Emerging Markets

Value6,694.21    
Change-222.920     
% Change-3.223

Conclusions

Has given back some of late.

read more


Nigeria All share Bloomberg Visual +33.384% 2010
Africa

Value27,780.80    
Change-106.240     
% Change-0.381

read more



Tunis SE Index Bloomberg Visual +14.941% 2010
Emerging Markets

Value4,931.92    
Change33.370     
% Change0.681

Conclusions

Apparently the least Correlated Market or very close.

read more


Ghana All share Bloomberg Visual +27.15% 2010
Africa

Value7,085.78    
Change20.970     
% Change0.297

Conclusions

Lots of Head Room.

read more


Raila, Kalonzo rivalry splits ‘Yes’ The Standard
Law & Politics

Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka is an angry man over Saturday’s
humiliation at ‘Yes’ launch rally in Uhuru Park and claims it was a
scheme Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s party.Kalonzo, who was under
attack over what was perceived to be his indecision on ‘Yes’ and ‘No’,
claims National Security Intelligence Service (NSIS) forewarned him
about the hostile crowd. He also revealed he was toying with the idea
of avoiding sharing a campaign platform with Raila and taking the
President’s Party of National Unity — to which his ODM-Kenya is an
affiliate — into crusading for the same ‘Yes’ in separate rallies.

"We need political hygiene. We should not pollute these rallies... we
are consulting and thinking of going different directions. We think it
is decent that way," said the Mwingi North MP.

He also termed the incident "backward democracy devoid of decorum and
tolerance."

He added: "We know from Intelligence that all this was planned. We all
know it was planned. I want you to know it was planned."

read more


Nairobi All share Index Bloomberg Visual +26.753% 2010
N.S.E General

Value73.72    
Change0.470     
% Change0.642

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar 78.55 Last ForexPros
World Currencies

Conclusions

81.00-83.00 is where key Support resides.

read more


Standard Chartered Bank reports 1st Quarter 2010 results here www.rich.co.ke
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          204.00
Total Shares Issued:          271,967,808
Market Capitalization:        55,481M
EPS:            16.78
PE:                12.157

PAT 1.440019B versus 1.036374b = +38.94%

Conclusions

Muscular 1st Quarter 2010.

read more


Tsavo, an ecosystem under threat East African
Africa

The Tsavo is timeless. It is one of Kenya’s most stunning national
parks, unrivaled in its diversity of landscapes and wildlife.

“Tsavo West is my favourite park,” says Jamal Din, who has operated a
petrol station for close to 20 years by the park gate at Mtito Andei,
the half way town between Mombasa and Nairobi.

“That’s because, besides living next to the park, it’s the only place
you can see the Big Five, fresh water springs, thorn scrub, lava
caves, hills and lakes,” he says.

For administrative purposes, Tsavo is divided into two parts — Tsavo
East (9,065 square kilometres) and Tsavo West (11,747 sq km) — and
opened in April 1948.The two make Tsavo Kenya’s largest national park
at 20,812 square kilometres — almost the size of Rwanda (26,338 sq km)
or half the size of Switzerland (41,285 sq km).The story of Tsavo is
well documented, starting with the construction of the Uganda Railway
between 1896 and 1901 from Mombasa to Kisumu.

The Man Eaters of Tsavo, a book by John Henry Patterson, written in
1907 about the infamous, maneless lions that devoured Asians and
Africans working on the railway.Remnants of the two lions are
currently exhibited at the Chicago Museum of Natural History.Later,
Daphne Sheldrick chronicled the park in The Tsavo Story, published in
1973. It offers many insights into the park’s beginnings.

Conclusions

Tsavo is a Magnificient Eco System and the Elephants are just unique.

Sunset Tsavo West Flickr
http://bit.ly/bqketg

Mzima Springs Tsavo west
http://bit.ly/d1cuPc

There is another Mzima Springs road on my Daily Commute to work and I
think a River is beginning to burst its banks.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

The NSE20 closed 3.22 points lower at 4285.61 and less than 1% from
its 2010 high.
The NASI dipped 0.27 points to close at 90.86.
Market Cap was 1.059196 Trillion versus 1.062344 Trillion last time.
Equity Turnover was 375.131m versus 611.066m with Safaricom dominating
for the 3rd Consecutive Session.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Kakuzi rallied 3.246% to close at 79.50 and traded 1,700 shares.

Rea Vipingo traded 9,000 shares to close at 18.90.
Sasini Tea firmed 10 cents to close at 15.10 and traded 74,300 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume     47,206,500
total turnover      264,938,336
CLOSING PRICE 5.60 -1.75%    
high price     5.70
low price     5.45
last price     5.60

Conclusions

Safaricom was the most active Counter for the 3rd Consecutive Session.
Safaricom touched 6.00 just before the CCK Contretemps and has
retreated 6.66% from that level. The Results are slated for release in
less than 2 weeks. Clearly the recent down draft was all to do with
the Regulator Rhetoric.

Safaricom share price data from www.rich.co.ke [Look at the Volume Graph]
http://bit.ly/4cdZRM

Access Kenya was unchanged at 18.25 and traded a 17.75-18.50 range and
253,300 shares.

CMC Holdings eased 3.42% to close at 14.10 and traded 23,200 shares.
CARGEN traded 300 shares lower at 54.00.

Kenya Airways drifted another 50 cents easier to close at 53.00. Kenya
Airways traded a 52.00-54.50 range and 45,200 shares.

Nation closed at 137.00 and traded 63,200 shares.
Standard traded 1,500 shares to close unchanged at 40.50.

Scangroup closed at 30.75 and traded 17,200 shares.

TPS Serena traded 24,500 shares and was unchanged at 63.00



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

The Big Cap Banks continue to return to favour especially after the

Slew of 1st quarter Earnings Releases which have marked [in nearly all
cases] an inflection in the Earnings Trajectory.

Equity Bank signed a KSH 4B SME Support Facility with China
Development Bank today. Equity Bank rose 0.53% to close at 19.10 and
traded a 18.95-19.30 range and 456,800 shares. Equity Bank is playing
some noteable Offence in 2010 and Investors continue to take note.

Equity Bank share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/1tAg4B

KCB firmed 2.466% to close at 20.75 and traded a 20.25-21.50 range and
248,300 shares. Demand outweighed Supply By a 10-1 Factor which is
noteworthy.
Stanchart firmed 1.96% to close at 208.00 and reported 1st Quarter
2010 +39% This Morning. Stanchart traded a 204.00-218.00 range and
3,100 shares. I see the price headed to 234.00 which puts it on a
Trailing PE of 14.00.
Barclays Bank improved 0.83% to close at 61.00 and traded a
60.00-62.00 range and 91,700 shares.
COOP Bank was unchanged at 12.10 and trading session highs of 12.30
+1.65% into the close. COOP Bank traded 299,100 shares.

CFC Stanbic was the 3rd most active Counter. CFC StanBic closed at
58.00 -2.52% and traded a 58.00-60.50 range and 173,500 shares. It
inflected Earnings more than 150% in the 1st Quarter 2010.
DTB closed lower at 83.50 and traded 400 shares only.
HFCK was unchanged at 21.00 and traded 21,600 shares.
NBK eased 50 cents to close at 42.25 and traded 6,500 shares only.
NIC closed 25 cents easier at 38.25 and traded 13,800 shares.

Centum eased 1.53% to close at 19.30 and traded 41,300 shares.

Kenya Re firmed 5 cents to close at 13.00 and traded 296,300 shares.
Jubilee improved 1.16% to close at 174.00 and traded 4,800 shares.
PanAfric did not trade.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

ARM was the 2nd most active Counter at the Bourse. ARM was unchanged
at 122.00 and trading 125.00 [a new all time high and the Chart
Pattern is self evidently very bullish] +2.46% into the close. ARM
traded 84,000 shares worth 10.278m.
Bamburi Cement  traded a 100 shares at 200.00 +2.56%.
Portland traded 400 shares at 123.00 +2.5%.

Mumias Sugar rose 0.375% to close at 13.30 and traded a 13.15-13.40
range and 731,100 shares.

Kenolkobil announced the resumption of its 1.5b Commercial Paper
program in June as a way of freeing up Funds for Expansion. Kenolkobil
eased 0.94% to close at 105.00 and traded 58,800 shares.
Total eased 0.8% to close at 31.00 and traded 20,800 shares.

Kengen closed 0.28% easier at 17.20 and traded a 17.20-17.30 range and
324,800 shares. Kengen is well supported here and crossing 15.00 was
the chart Signal, in fact.
KPLC rallied 1.52% to close at 201.00 and was trading session highs of
205.00. KPLC traded 7,900 shares.
Cables was unchanged at 21.75 and traded 10,200 shares.

EABL was marked down 1.74% to close at 168.00 and traded 8,400 shares only.

BAT drifted 0.51% lower to close at 196.00 and traded 8,400 shares.
Boc Kenya did not trade.
Carbacid eased 0.66% to close at 150.00 and traded 900 shares.
Crown Berger rose 0.77% to close at 32.75 and traded 6,700 shares.
Eveready rose 2.22% to close at 4.60 and traded 45,100 shares.
Sameer was unchanged at 9.00 and traded 43,100 shares.
Unga closed higher at 12.25 and traded 34,300 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2010
 
 
 
 
 
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