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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 18th of May 2010

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here

My Weekly Piece for The Star The Sick Man of Europe

I do thank Eleni for the Interview carried on CNBC Yesterday Thanks

Macro Thoughts

I am looking for a much weaker Euro but more violent short covering
Rallies. 1.1760 is my next Objective.
Gold is a Buy at this level of 1225
I would take the Long Shilling Side versus Short Euro and the Pound.

Home Thoughts

I am in Mombasa for the day. You will recall it was from whence I
came, in fact.

I would have liked to go to the Cemetery and pay my respects to my
Mother and Grand Father. It is an Oasis of Calm near the City Market
and trying to access it is like a Journey through Chaos. I would have
liked to pay my Dad a visit at Ralli House. I used to potter about his
Office [and before that it was Dad's and my Grand Father's] from the
time I was a little Boy. Dad always had reams of Papers, finely
sharpened Pencils and Old Fashioned Typewriters. It was quite an
intoxicating experience actually. And then I might have had a drive
and had a Coconut by the Sea.

Actually I am just down for the day and busy.

Mombasa Fort Jesus

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US outflanked in bid to bring new sanctions against Iran The Independent
Law & Politics

Iran appeared to draw back yesterday from confrontation over its
nuclear programme by agreeing to ship uranium abroad for enrichment, a
move described by Western governments as being in the right direction
but not enough to avert the threat of harsh UN sanctions.Under the
agreement, brokered by Brazil and Turkey, Iran agrees to send 1200kg
of low-enriched uranium to Turkey for storage and will have the right
after a year, to receive back 120kg of fuel enriched by Russia and
China into rods for a Tehran-based medical research reactor.

If the deal is honoured, it would theoretically inhibit any Iranian
plan to develop nuclear weapons. But the announcement risked
undermining efforts by the US and its allies to bring China and Russia
on board for a fourth round of punitive UN measures against Iran over
the nuclear impasse. Moscow and Beijing have been reluctant partners
in the debate over isolating Iran, a major trading partner to both.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu held the deal as a "historic
turning point" and claimed no further punitive measures against Tehran
were necessary.

The Brazilian foreign minister Celso Amorim added: "I think that
declaration... eliminates whatever doubts for sanctions against Iran.
There is no ground to keep trying for new sanctions. The swap
agreement should be the getaway for broader discussions."


Looks like a Breakthrough Trade.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2352 1.1760 is my Objective Near term but short covering
Bounces might get a whole lot more violent
Pound 1.4437 Looks very weak Sell Rallies
Dollar Index 86.36
Higher Beta
Aussie 0.8732
Rand 7.55 Looks expensive to me but Standard Chartered NED Bank supports
Real 1.80

Euro sank as low as $1.2233, its lowest level since April 2006, at one
point in yesterdays session.

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World Equity Markets At a glance
World Of Finance

The Dow rose 5.67 points, or 0.05% to 10625.83. The Nasdaq Composite
was up 7.38 points, or 0.31% to 2354.23. The S&P 500 added 1.26
points, or 0.11%, closing at 1136.94.

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The T-Shirt, Valentino-Style WSJ

Granted, with its strip of lace racing along the throat, a bouquet of
embroidered silk roses, and $790 price tag, this t-shirt won't be
mistaken for Hanes. But Valentino?

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Copper prices plunged 6.4%, posting the largest one-day drop since the
2008 financial crisis, as concerns about the pace of global economic
growth weighed heavily. This Copper move has put the Zambia Kwacha
under serious pressure.

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Copper June 2010 INO 1 Year Chart

Last Price    2.9260
Contract High Date    2010-04-21 Contract High    3.548
Contract Low Date    2009-07-15 Contract Low    2.401

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Gold Live 24 Hour Spot Quote KITCO 1225.30 Last

In Germany, there's a "panic about the safety of the euro, gold demand
from the country has soared, with most German and Austrian gold
dealers and banks sold out and struggling to secure new supplies,"
said Martin Hennecke, associate director at Tyche Group Ltd.

At the same time, the fears that Europe's debt woes will put the
breaks on the economic recovery continued to spur buying, with the
margin calls 'limiting the upside for gold,'" said Bill O'Neill, a
principal at Logic Advisors in New Jersey.

Even though investors prize gold as a store of value, they've shown
willingness to dump the metal if they are pushed to raise cash to
cover losses on other investments, such as stocks. In a margin call, a
brokerage requires an investor trading on borrowed money to put in
more capital if the value of his investments falls.


1220-1225 is the area to buy it again.

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Live Crude Oil chart 70.62 Last
Minerals, Oil & Energy

Oil prices have fallen 19% since a peak on April 6, when the
then-most-active contract closed at $86.84 a barrel.

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China SSE Index Yahoo Finance 1 Year Chart

Index Value:    2,537.20
Trade Time:    10:55PM EDT
Change:    Down 22.74 (0.89%)

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Wealthy Store Gold, Art Inside Singapore’s Tax-Free ‘Fort Knox’ Bloomberg

Singapore’s maximum-security vault for art, gold and valuables opening
today will allow the city- state to match Hong Kong and Beijing as an
Asian center for art, said Christie’s International’s regional
chief.The Singapore FreePort Pte’s 30,000 square meters (323,000
square feet) of strong rooms -- enough to cover about six football
fields -- are inside Changi International airport, allowing
non-resident collectors to store valuables such as jewels and wine
without paying taxes or filing customs forms.

“It’s a state-of-the-art facility,” said Francois Curiel, Asia
president of Christie’s, which has leased a floor of the building to
provide storage for private clients. “Singapore will again become an
important centre for art.”

The list of storable items at the Freeport is extensive, including
fine art, jewelry, watches, diamonds, precious metals, antiques,
vintage cars, wine, cigars, carpets and confidential documents. Space
in the building is already 98 percent leased, and the company is
planning to add another 25,000 square meters, much of which has
already been reserved, Vandenborre said.

“The Singapore Freeport is a golden link in the value chain to promote
Singapore as a centre for art, culture and antiquities and for storage
and sale of such high value items,” said Tommy Koh, chairman of the
National Heritage Board, which runs Singapore’s museums.

British artist Marc Quinn's oil painting "Blue Light at Dawn" (2009).
Source: Bartha & Senarclens via Bloomberg

Not my Style but might be popular in China.

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Ukraine PFTS Index Bloomberg Visual +45.804% 2010
Emerging Markets

% Change-3.691


Has given up a lot in the last month.

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Vodacom Increasing Dividend Payout, Weighing Buyback Bloomberg
Information & Communication Technology

Vodacom Group Ltd., the South African mobile phone company 65 percent
owned by Vodafone Group Plc, will raise its dividend payout 50 percent
in fiscal 2011 and is considering buying back shares to return cash to
shareholders.A buyback is “definitely an option,” Chief Executive
Officer Pieter Uys said in an interview today. Unless it makes an
acquisition, the company will either buy back shares or “pay out more
dividends.” A full strategy for returning cash will be completed in
the next three months, the CEO said.

Vodacom plans to pay 60 percent of per-share earnings from operations
back to shareholders, up from 40 percent, according to a statement
today. In the year ended March 31, cash generation grew 55 percent to
13.5 billion rand ($1.77 billion), according to the statement.

Vodacom has cut investment in South Africa by 3.9 percent to 6.6
billion rand, while slashing spending in other African markets 19
percent to 1.9 billion rand. The company has been looking for
acquisitions and it had “discussions” with Kuwait’s Zain over its
African assets, Uys said. Bharti Airtel Ltd., India’s second-largest
mobile operator, has offered $9 billion for most of those assets.

“We were in discussions last year long before Bharti Airtel Ltd. But
knowing the businesses, knowing the countries, knowing the
opportunities, we couldn’t get to a 10 times Ebitda multiple,” Uys
said. Vodacom trades at about five times earnings before interest,
taxes, depreciation and amortization. If the company paid twice that
level in an acquisition, “you have to add a lot of growth from the
investment before you get a return,” he said.

Net income fell 31 percent to 4.2 billion rand in the 12 months
through March 31, from 6.1 billion rand a year earlier, the company
said in a statement to the Johannesburg stock exchange today. Sales
rose 3 percent to 58.5 billion rand.

New laws requiring registration of customer details in South Africa
have cut new subscriptions by 1.9 million, to 26.3 million.
Subscribers in other parts of Africa grew about 14 percent to 13.6
million users.

Vodacom share price data Bloomberg

% Change4.144
52-Wk High (05/18/09)6,495.000    
52-Wk Low (05/29/09)4,995.000

Vodacom Group (Pty) Limited operates a cellular telephone network in
South Africa. The Company has mobile operations in Tanzania,
Mozambique, Lesotho and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

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Profile: Ethiopian leader Meles Zenawi BBC
Law & Politics

If you have the fire, go for it [politics]. If you do not, stay as far
away from it as you possibly can, for your own health
Meles Zenawi

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The Kinshasa social club The Times

When two aspiring French film-makers stumbled upon a band of ageing
paraplegic buskers in downtown Kinshasa in 2004, it was not
immediately obvious that they would go on to storm the Cannes Film
Festival together six years later.Even a year and a half ago the
musicians who became the subjects of Benda Bilili!, the documentary by
Renaud Barret and his friend of 20 years Florent de la Tullaye, were
still sleeping rough on cardboard boxes on the streets of the
Congolese capital and rehearsing in the city’s forlorn and crumbling

Now, in a triumph more unlikely than most of the fictional storylines
on offer at Cannes this year, the band are the grinning face of the of
the world’s most glamorous entertainment industry jamboree, the
stand-out success at the halfway point of a festival that has been
conspicuously light on uplifting, crowd-pleasing fare so far.

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China Dev't Bank gives Kenya's Equity Bank $51 mln loan Reuters
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya's Equity Bank (EQTY.NR: Quote) said on Monday it had signed a 4
billion shilling ($50.82 million) financing agreement with China
Development Bank for lending to small and medium businesses.Equity
said it was the first beneficiary of a $5 billion Chinese fund for
development of small and medium sized businesses in Africa.

"The facility will allow Equity Bank to advance long-term development
loans to the ... sector ... at affordable interest rates in a bid to
spur the sector which plays a crucial role in the social economic
development of the country," Equity said in a statement.

It said the funds will be available to its customers at interest rates
ranging from 7 to 9 percent for between three and seven years.

Officials have been pushing for low lending rates to help pull the
east African nation's economy out of sluggish growth following a
severe drought last year and fallout from the global financial
crisis.Equity said it had lowered its base lending rate to 10 percent
from 15 percent, joining several other large banks, which have slashed
their rates in recent weeks.

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Live Kenya Shilling versus The Pound ForexPros 78.65 Last
World Currencies


I do not expect a Move through 83.00 that has been resistance for a
very Long time.

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Live Kenya Shilling versus The Euro ForexPros 96.907 Last
World Currencies

I expect a move to as low as 82.00. See My weekly Star Article The
Sick Man of Europe

Sterling Shilling might get to 100.00.

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Kenyan produce tops African rivals in tea markets Business Daily

Statistics by the African Tea Brokers Limited (ATB) showed that as at
last week’s sale at the Mombasa auction, the cumulative average price
of Kenyan tea stood at $2.96 a kilogramme, the highest in the region
compared to Malawi’s $1.35 per kg which is the lowest in the region.

For instance in the period to March the average price for Kenyan tea
at the weekly Mombasa auction was higher at $3.04 per kg compared to
$2.31 recorded during the same period of 2009 with market players
linking it to more superior quality offers when compared to other


That Average is the highest Average for 25 Years.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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May 2010

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