www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

I do thank Pradeep of Athi River Mining for the Invitation yesterday.
Thanks Pradeep. Always appreciated.

Macro Thoughts

And I am still keenly peering through my Lefevre P.10

Another Lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall
Street. There can't be because Speculation is as old as the Hills.
Whatever happens in the Stock Market today has happened before and
will happen again. I'd never forgotten that. I suppose I really manage
to remember when and how it happened. The Fact that I remember that
way is my way of capitalising Experience.

Home Thoughts

I did mention My Fortnum and Masons Hamper [I knew the Westons very
well once upon a time] and how I rediscovered lots of long lost Books.

I just read Naguib Mahfouz's Dweller in Truth which is about Akhenaten
http://bit.ly/c00bDW

"Dweller in Truth". Adopting the narrative method of multiple
narrators, the novelist approaches a well-known enigma, the identity
of Akhenaten, the author of beautiful hymns to the sun and the
predecessor of Tutankhamun. King Amenophis IV, who ruled between about
1375 and 1358 BC, abandoned the dynastic cult of Amun and other gods
in Thebes and left the capital, aiming to build a new one in the place
now known as Tell El-Amarna. He devoted all his worship to the solar
disc of Aten, the sun god, represented by rays that terminate in hands
holding the signs of ankh, "the force of life". In a similar fashion,
the famous Egyptian obelisks are holy representations of sunrays.

Its beautifully and very sparely written.

I have been getting up rather early of late. This Morning I switched
on the Light and the little One [who must be Obeyed - Rumpole of the
Old Bailey referring to his Wife] shrieked and I sort of think I am
hearing my Mother and Grandmother from another Place. So I turned to
Hannah and said

Ok Darling I am going to go Work in my Boxer shorts. And if anyone
wants an Interview I am going to do it in my Boxer shorts.

She starts Chuckling and says Even Aljazeero I said Even Aljazeero.

Finally I was able to get my Kit on.

But Lula had barely 24 hours to savour the success before Hillary
Clinton took all the wind out of his sails. With a rhetorical pat on
the head for him and his Turkish allies, Clinton dismissed the whole
process as meaningless, and announced that Iran will face more
sanctions.

They were the ultimate symbols of Soviet power, used to whiz politburo
members through snowy Moscow streets to the forbidding walls of the
Kremlin. The ZiL limousine was the favoured mode of transport for a
succession of leaders. Khrushchev, Brezhnev and Gorbachev all had one.
After communism collapsed, however, Boris Yeltsin got himself a
Mercedes.

Euro 1.2354 - I said in my Podcast that the Short Covering Rallies
could become Violent.
Pound 1.4407
Dollar Index 86.44
Aussie 0.8425
Real 1.8269
Rand 7.79 [looking for 7.92 8.00 then 8.10]

The euro rebounded strongly from four-year lows Wednesday as currency
markets bet that European authorities would respond to the common
currency's recent rapid decline.
Conjecture in the market that the European Central Bank could take
steps to try to arrest the euro's drop--which might have been too
rapid--helped boost the currency more than 1.5% against the dollar on
the day.

The ECB and Federal Reserve declined to comment, but the speculation
in and of itself was sufficient to spark a pause in the euro's fall.

"The threat of possible central bank intervention is really forcing
some traders to really lighten up on their heavy bets against the
euro," said Joe Manimbo, market analyst at Travelex Global Business
Payments in Washington. "How long that lasts, we'll see, because the
euro is widely expected to have a tough time sustaining any bounce
given worries about the euro zone," which struggles with a stifling
crisis of sovereign debt.

Conclusions

I still look for a move to 1.1760 and if the ECB wants to give
everyone a chance to sell it higher up, then so be it.

Value5,988.67   
Change-167.260    
% Change-2.717

Nudity is our most basic state, yet there are few things that cause
the same extreme mixture of titillation and horror. Still, if one
looks closely, it’s everywhere. Mass nude weddings with as many as
sixty couples take place every year at the Hedonism resort in Jamaica.
There’s nude sky diving and nude boxing (so-called “bouncy boxing”) in
Australia, nude skiers in Austria (brr), nude synchronized swimming in
Spain, strip poker, naked flights (no hot drinks are served, to
prevent scalding), organized nudism, anarchic streaking, Janet Jackson
at the Super Bowl. Why does donning the birthday suit get us in such a
tizzy? I recently wrote to Philip Carr-Gomm, a psychotherapist,
writer, and author of “A Brief History of Nakedness,” to ask his
opinion.

Why nakedness?

I finish this part of the book with a quotation from Dolly Parton
which nicely unites Pantheistic and Christian themes: “Sometimes I
like to run naked in the moonlight and the wind, on a little trail
behind our house, when the honeysuckle blooms. It's a feeling of
freedom, so close to God and nature.”

Prices of platinum and palladium, which have been big beneficiaries of
investor inflows, on Wednesday capitulated to global economic growth
worries.The palladium futures contract for May delivery plunged
$47.30, or 9.4% to $458.70 an ounce, while May platinum shed $84.80,
or 5.02% to $1603.70 an ounce.

Crude-oil prices snapped a six-session losing streak. Still, the
advance was limited to the futures contract for light, sweet crude for
June delivery, which expires Thursday. The price rose 46 cents, or
0.7%, to $69.87 a barrel, while the more-active July contract fell 22
cents, or 0.3%, to $72.48 a barrel.The price of the benchmark
front-month contract has fallen in 10 of the previous 11 sessions, in
a nearly $20-a-barrel plunge.

Sugar +1.84%

Last Price    15.45
Contract High Date    2010-01-06 Contract High    22.78
Contract Low Date    2008-10-24 Contract Low    11.79

Conclusions

It looks like it is trying to base out.
I did suggest selling 12c Puts and fortunately we got close but did
not trade there.

Prices in Taiwan’s capital have risen 29 percent to a record since
September 2008.

Taipei Google Image Search
http://bit.ly/dnijNH

South Africa’s economic growth this year may exceed the 2.6 percent
estimated by the International Monetary Fund in April, said Abebe
Selassie, the head of regional studies at the IMF’s African
department.The IMF may raise its forecast by a quarter of a percentage
point to “closer to 3 percent,” Selassie said in a presentation in
Johannesburg today. The lender will revise its estimate as a result of
a recent visit to South Africa by an IMF team, he said.

South Africa, Africa’s biggest economy, is recovering from a 1.8
percent contraction in 2009 as manufacturing exports rebound and gold
and platinum prices increase. The IMF’s comments today echo those of
Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan on May 11 that the economy may expand
more than the 2.3 percent he forecast in February.

Retail sales rose for the first time in 14 months in March, expanding
an annual 1 percent, the statistics office said today, while
manufacturing increased an annual 6.3 percent in the same month, the
fastest pace in almost two years

The government’s plan to bring down the budget deficit to 5 percent in
the year through March 2012 from 6.2 percent this year is “achievable”
and its spending and revenue plans “will be supportive of the
recovery,” Selassie said.

The IMF estimated that Sub-Saharan economic growth will reach 4.7
percent this year, double the pace of 2009, as commodity prices
increased and governments raised spending to help offset the impact of
the global crisis.

“This was the biggest test the region has faced for many years and
it’s coming out of the crisis well,” Selassie said. “Top marks for the
region.”

Africa’s trade with emerging markets, such as China and India, has
also increased in recent years, helping to offset sluggish growth in
Europe, Coorey said. Sub-Saharan exports to emerging and other
developing economies accounted for 35 percent of total exports in
2009, compared with 20 percent in 2004 and less than 10 percent in
1990, according to IMF data.

South Africa All share Bloomberg Visual -1.8068% 2010
http://bit.ly/8rEgBs

Value27,175.04   
Change-398.790    
% Change-1.446

Conclusions

The Palladium and Platinum Price Moves will pressure today.

Conclusions

We are going to be having a look at 8.00, I think.

Conclusions

Worth Keeping an Eye on for a Re Entry level on the Long Kwacha side.
Optimal Entry is at 6,000.00. The China Copper Connection underpins
Zambia in a way it did not before.

Value27,424.47   
Change-27.300    
% Change-0.099

Conclusions

I remain constructive.

Kenya’s 5-year treasury bond worth 12 billion shillings ($151.5
million) was 56 percent oversold, the central bank said today in a
statement in the Nairobi-based Daily Nation newspaper.The bond with a
redemption date of May 18, 2015 received bids totaling 18.8 billion
shillings, Jackson Kitili, the monetary operations and debt management
director said in the statement.

“The weighted average rate of successful bids was 6.829 percent down
from 9.592 percent,” Kitili said.

The bond, to be spent on budgetary support, will be traded on the
Nairobi Stock Exchange from May 25.

Conclusions

It has been a breathtaking Rally in GOK Interest rates and a very
bullish backdrop.

Value74.55   
Change0.660    
% Change0.893

Conclusions

This a 2010 Closing High and now a 2 Year High.

Kenya's third largest cement firm Athi River Mining's 5-year
equity-linked bond for 1.2 billion shillings was oversubscribed by
more than half, the transaction team said, marking the successful sale
of the country's first equity-linked bond.The company had opted for a
greenshoe option of a further 400 million shillings in the event of
excess demand. Investors for the issue, which was sold through a
private placement, offered 1.9 billion shillings.

An equity-linked note offers investors higher returns in the event the
firm's shares perform well. Athi River's note offered a 12 percent
coupon with a rise in the share price of the company envisaged to
raise the yield to a total of 16 percent.

Macharia also attributed the success of the issue to a favourable
outlook for the cement industry on the back of a boom in construction
in the region. The market was also awash with liquidity, he said.

"There is too much money chasing very few projects," he said, adding
other firms would be encouraged by the results of the Athi River bond
to raise funds through innovative instruments like the equity-linked
note, which is the first of its kind in Kenya.

Funds raised will be used to complete a $100 million cement plant in
Tanga, Tanzania, due for completion in early 2011.

Surendra Bhatia, Athi River's deputy managing director, said the firm
would raise its total production capacity in Kenya and Tanzania to 2.2
million tonnes per year once all expansion projects in the region are
completed.

"Cement demand in east Africa has grown by, on average, double digits,
which is very positive, during this year. I would expect the trend to
maintain itself," he said.

Athi River has other business divisions producing fertiliser,
chemicals and industrial minerals. Cement, whose consumption is
sometimes used as a measure of economic activity in Africa where there
is scarce economic data, accounts for more than half of its business.

Conclusions

That was a Note worth Buying.

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          126.00
Total Shares Issued:          99,055,000
Market Capitalization:        12,481M
EPS:            6.52
PE:                19.325

Conclusions

This is the most Bullish share on the charts with 120.00 as the support.

I have had the chance to interface with Pradeep a number of times. He
spoke extremely well at Mindspeak. I remember him saying how he had
come back from Stern and his Dad handed him the Keys and said Pradeep
you are in charge now. The Point about ARM which deserves a Premium is
this. Pradeep executes to within 1% of his Plan and he has done it
year in and Year out. There is zero Leakage. And I have looked at a
lot of Financials. Look through the Link above. He has a very bold
Plan and I have a projection for his share Price in the Analysis.

Capital markets regulator is investigating the procurement practices.
The report by Runji & Partners — a local engineering firm — seen by
the Business Daily indicates that AccessKenya lost more than Sh300
million in the inland fibre project.

It was however dismissed by the management and some directors on
grounds of factual inaccuracies and unsubstantiated comments.

The 150 kilometre inland cable is estimated to have cost the firm
Sh450 million, having been revised downwards from the initial
quotation of Sh624 million.

Conclusions

83.00 is a key Area going back a long way.

Conclusions

I am surely in a Minority of 1 but I am looking for 82.00 as an
outside Objective.

Sisal firm, Rea Vipingo, is banking on firm prices of fibre and
favourable forex rates to help shore-up its earnings even as it warned
that its full-year profit for 2010 is likely to drop by more than a
quarter.The company said a prolonged drought experienced throughout
East Africa last year hurt sisal fibre production, leading to lower
than expected earnings in the current financial year.

“Sisal fibre prices have firmed recently and assuming foreign exchange
rates remain relatively favourable, and volumes continue to improve as
expected, it is anticipated that the group will produce strong results
for the remainder of the financial year.”

With an annual sisal fibre production of over 16,000 tonnes, the
company is currently the largest sisal producer in Africa.

Kenyan police have recovered a cache of firearms found in the sea by
an octopus fisherman and suspect it could belong to a group of pirates
arrested in the nearby coastal town of Malindi.They recovered four
rockets, one ceska pistol, a rocket launcher, 18 magazines, five AK-47
rifles, eight rounds of ammunition for ceska pistols and a total of
436 rounds of ammunition measuring 7.62mm.

Six men thought to be of Somali origin were arrested in a boat off
Malindi, on May 10 and were charged with being in Kenya illegally. The
captain of the boat was also charged with possessing a firearm
illegally.Security officers were alerted to the weapons by a fisherman
who discovered them more than 2 km from the shoreline in Malindi, a
popular tourist town north of the port city of Mombasa.

"I was in the deep sea as usual looking for octopus when I noticed a
buoy floating. I got curious because that was a sign of something
underneath. I dived into the water only to come face to face with all
manner of weaponry," fisherman Jackson Kahindi Karisa told Reuters.

"I panicked because I did not understand why somebody had left them
there and whether somebody was watching me. I sailed back to shore and
notified the police."

Mombasa has suffered two attacks: a hotel bombing and a botched
missile attack on an Israeli airliner leaving Kenya's Mombasa airport
in 2002.

Dubai World will pay $4.4 billion of the loans in five years and the
remaining $10 billion over eight years, the company said in an
e-mailed statement today. The Dubai government, to which Dubai World
owes $8.9 billion, will convert its loans into equity.

“Putting closure on the Dubai World issue is a good thing, but we need
to get clarity on Dubai and global sovereign debt in order for a true
turnaround to unfold,” said Sameh Hassan, director of research at
Rasmala Investment Bank Ltd. in Dubai.

Kenya's economy grew by 2.6 percent in 2009 from a revised 1.6
percent a year before, boosted by growth in sectors like tourism and
building construction, the government said on Thursday.

"The economy was able to grow from 1.6 percent in 2008 to 2.6 percent
in 2009," Wycliffe Oparanya, minister of state for planning and
national development, said while releasing the country's 2010 economic
survey

Kenya's TPS Eastern Africa, operator of Serena chain of hotels plans a
rights issue to raise more than 1.2 billion shillings ($15.25 million)
for expansion, the firm said on Thursday.

"We have ambitious plans for the future growth of Serena Hotels,
buoyed by our strong trading record and increasing optimism in the
tourism sector in East Africa," Mahmud Jan Mohamed, the company's
chief executive said in a statement.

"We are planning to use proceeds of the Rights Issue to expand
capacity and to upgrade our existing portfolio of properties in order
to meet increased demand at the top end of the market."The issue of
24.7 million new shares to be offered at a rate of one for every five
held is subject to approval by the company's shareholders at its
annual meeting next week.Tourism, which was Kenya's third largest
source of hard currency last year after horticulture and tea, is
expected to rebound this year in line with the recovery of the global
economy across east Africa where the firm has operations.Kenya is also
hoping to shake off memories of the bloody post-election crisis in
2008 and is stepping up marketing of the destination through
advertising on international television channels.

The capitalisation of Jaja Limited, a special purpose vehicle for the
development of tourist properties in Kenya, acquiring existing
properties in Tanzania and refurbishment of its hotel in Rwanda are
some of the areas in which Serena plans to put the money.

The cash call will complement other fundraising activities by the
group like long-term borrowing.

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          63.50
Total Shares Issued:          105,864,744
Market Capitalization:        6,722M
EPS:            3.60
PE:                17.639

Scientists studying topi bucks observed them snorting and looking
intently ahead when an available female began to stray from their
territory.The behaviour suggests there is a dangerous predator ahead,
such as a lion or cheetah. But the male topi's signals were false ones
designed to fool the female into staying close by.Keeping the
frightened female secure in his territory increases the male's chances
of mating.Deliberate deception of a sexual partner has not been
documented before in animals.

In pictures: Topi behaviour BBC
http://bit.ly/9aoUt7

The Shilling is at 79.10

The NSE Closing Data is delayed. The Bourse continues to build
strength and breadth and I believe we are headed to test 4482
resistance on the NSE20.

Sasini Tea closed at 14.70 and traded 85,200 shares.
Rea Vipingo closed better at 17.60 and traded 19,500 shares.
Kakuzi closed lower at 73.50 and traded 4,800 shares.

AFARICOM

shares volume     14,040,600
total turnover      78,354,136
avg price     5.58 CLOSING PRICE 5.55 -0.89%
high price     5.60
low price     5.50
last price     5.55

Conclusions

We are at the bottom of the Trading Range and hence this is a very
attractive Re Entry Level. Safaricom was the 2nd most active Counter.
I will discuss M Kesho over the next few emails but I believe it is a
Game Changer for Banking at the Bottom of the Pyramid. The Mobile
Phone is the lowest Cost Channel and we are now set to witness the
Arrival of Banking Services for this enormous swathe of the Economy.
In Africa, It is all about right sizing your Product. You have to
slice and dice much finer, but I happen to believe Safaricom and
Equity Bank absolutely can execute. This is an Ultra High Frequency,
Low average Denomination Game. This has an International Dimension as
well. MPESA has more Customers than the entire number of Bank Accounts
in Kenya. I saw an Article which described Kenya as the Silicon Valley
of Banking Innovation. This surely confirms that. As an Investor, I
look for moments of Disjunction and Inflection. I believe this is one
and that Penny is yet to drop.

TPS Serena rallied 2.3625% to close at 65.00 and was trading at 66.00
into the close. TPS Serena has confirmed a Rights Issue for $15m
equivalent and Mr. Jan Mohamed said the following in an emailed
statement

"We have ambitious plans for the future growth of Serena Hotels,
buoyed by our strong trading record and increasing optimism in the
tourism sector in East Africa,"

Serena is up over 80% over the last 12 months and we are at levels not
seen since August 2008.

Kenya Airways closed 1.82% firmer at 56.00 and traded a 55.00-60.00
range and 282,300 shares worth 15.833m.

Nation was unchanged at 139.00 and well traded with 96,100 shares
worth 13.446m traded.
Standard closed at 40.25 and traded 2,200 shares.

Scangroup was unchanged at 31.25 and was locked at 32.00 +2.4% into
the close. Scangroup traded 17,800 shares with Supply looking thinner.

Access Kenya closed 2.352% easier at 16.60 and traded a 16.25-17.00
range and 335,000 shares.

CMC Holdings was unchanged at 13.75 and traded 23,100 shares.
Cargen gave back 7.41% to close at 50.00 and traded 600 shares.

Equity Bank was the 3rd most active Counter today. Equity Bank rallied
a further 3.57% to close at 21.75 [adding to yesterdays +7.97% Up
Move] and traded as high as 23.00 during the session. Equity Bank
traded 3.581m shares worth 78.215m.

National Bank was the 4th most active Counter. NBK firmed 0.59% to
close at 42.50 and traded 977,600 shares [0.3491% of the Issued
shares] worth 41.699m. National Bank trades on a PE of 7.531 but has a
Balance Sheet Restructuring ahead of it. The Government holds
Preference shares which will need to be exchanged into Ordinary shares
and hence there is Dilution ahead.

National Bank of Kenya share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/8U8iAv

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:          42.25
Total Shares Issued:          280,000,000
Market Capitalization:        11,830M
EPS:            5.61
PE:                7.531

Standard Chartered rallied a further 2.35% to close at 219.00.
Stanchart traded 59,000 shares worth 12.936m. This is a 2 Year closing
high.
KCB retreated 4.65% to close at 20.50 and traded 363,600 shares. It
has been contained in a 19.00-24.00 range for near enough 2 Years and
is yet to show much inkling that it is set to break out of that.
COOP Bank was unchanged at 12.10 but closed the session out at 12.50
+3.31% session highs. COOP Bank traded 1.295m shares worth 15.709m.
Barclays Bank was unchanged at 60.00 and traded 62,400 shares.

CFC Stanbic was unchanged at 59.00 and traded 44,200 shares.
DTB closed 50 cents better at 84.50 and traded 35,000 shares. DTB did
not apparently run a Long GOK Bond Position and hence were below the
Peer run rate in the 1st Quarter.
HFCK firmed 2.24% to close at 22.75 and traded 156,500 shares.
NIC eased 50 cents to close at 37.75 and traded 46,300 shares.

Centum closed at 18.85 and traded 88,100 shares.

Kenya Re fell 4.72% to close at 12.15 and traded a 12.00-12.80 range
and 778,100 shares.
Jubilee traded 2,500 shares all at 179.00 +2.29%.
PanAfric traded 2,000 shares and closed unchanged at 60.00.
Olympia Capital closed at 9.00.

Bamburi was the most active Counter at the Bourse today in what was a
Broad based Day of Activity at the Bourse. Bamburi closed 1.01% firmer
at 200.00 and traded 409,400 shares worth 81.877m.
ARM traded 3,800 shares at 126.00 unchanged and an all time closing High.
Portland traded 100 shares at 125.00 unchanged.

Kenolkobil was well traded and closed unchanged at 104.00. kenolkobil
traded a 103.00-106.00 range and 283,400 shares worth 29.504m.
Total was low ticked to close 4.0375% lower at 29.75 and traded 11,700 shares.

Kengen firmed 0.585% to close at 17.25 and was trading a 17.40 +1.46%
high into the close. Kengen traded 750,500 shares and has a 2-1 Demand
versus Supply Imbalance which lends strong support to the price.
KPLC edged 0.5% lower to close at 200.00 and traded 5,600 shares.
Cables closed lower at 20.50.

Mumias Sugar retreated 1.89% to close at 13.00 and traded a
12.90-13.25 range and 1.795m shares worth 23.358m.

EABL was unchanged at 174.00 and traded 50,200 shares.

BAT rallied 1.52% to close at 200.00 and traded 12,100 shares. The
Dividend Yield is supremely attractive in the low TBill Environment.

BOC Kenya did not trade.
Carbacid traded 1,100 shares at 152.00 and unchanged.
Crown Berger was unchanged at 34.75 and traded 3,300 shares.
Eveready closed at 4.65 +1.09% and traded 24,200 shares.
Sameer closed at 8.85 -0.56% and traded 22,400 shares.
Unga closed at 12.20 -1.61% and traded 12,900 shares.