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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 21st of May 2010
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
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Macro Thoughts

Things can turn on a Dime.
I think you will find this Year that the furthest Flung parts of the
African Frontier are probably the best Repository for your Funds.

Home Thoughts

Aysha had to have some stitches yesterday and carried it like a Badge
of Honour throughout the evening. I spoke to her about her Immense
Bravery and how proud I was and then said how much Faith I had in her
and that I had so many Hopes for her and that she had the Talent to
achieve whatever she set her mind to. I found her in my Bed this
Morning, which was not well received by her Baby Sister who saw it as
a Coup D'Etat and was seriously unhappy.

read more


North Korea threatens South with war over 'fabricated' report Independent
Law & Politics

North Korea yesterday threatened to respond with "all-out war" if it
is punished following the report of a multinational investigation that
blamed a torpedo fired by one of its submarines for the sinking of a
South Korean warship.

Pyongyang denounced the results of the inquiry as a fabrication, and
denied that it was involved in the sinking of the Cheonan warship in
the Yellow Sea. Forty-six sailors died in the incident, which was the
worst military disaster for South Korea since the Korean War.

A spokesman for the North's Defence Commission said they would respond
to any attempt to punish it by "all-out war... involving the whole
nation, all the people and the whole state".

Conclusions

The Mad Man Theory has served North Korea remarkably well. He
obviously learnt his History Lesson from Nixon and Kissinger who were
the First Proponents of such an Approach.
Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

you need to convince your opponents that even the most extreme option
is really on the table. And one way to do that is to make them think
you are crazy.
http://bit.ly/bryV8G

Nixon's madman pose and Giant Lance were based on game theory, a
branch of mathematics that uses simple calculations and rigorous logic
to help understand how people make choices — like whether to surge
ahead in traffic or whether to respond to a military provocation with
a strike of one's own.

read more


Ethiopia rejects Egypt Nile claims Aljazeera
Law & Politics

Ethiopia's prime minister has rejected a threat by Egypt to prevent
the building of dams and other water projects upstream on the Nile
river.Meles Zenawi told Al Jazeera on Wednesday that Egypt will not be
able to stop his country from building dams on the river.His comments
came nearly a week after Ethiopia joined Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania
in signing a new treaty on the equitable sharing of the Nile, despite
strong opposition from Egypt and Sudan who have the major share of the
river waters.

The Nile flows through 10 African nations, but the distribution of its
waters among each Nile basin country has long been a source of tension
in the region.Historic agreements have given Egypt and Sudan veto
power over upstream projects that could affect the flow of water.But
the agreement signed last week by four of the Nile Basin countries
marked the creation of a new commission to manage the water.Kenya,
Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to sign
within a year.

"Some people in Egypt have old-fashioned ideas based on the assumption
that the Nile water belongs to Egypt, and that Egypt has a right to
decide who gets what, and that the upper [Nile basin] countries are
unable to use the Nile water because they will be unstable and they
will be poor," he said.

"These circumstances have changed and changed forever.

"Ethiopia is not unstable. Ethiopia is still poor, but it is able to
cover the necessary resources to build whatever infrastructure and
dams it wants on the Nile water." Zenawi

The new agreement, the Nile Basin Co-operative Framework, is to
replace a 1959 accord between Egypt and Sudan that gave them control
of more than 90 per cent of the water flow.

The two countries have expressed fears that their water supply would
be severely reduced if the seven other Nile users divert the river
with domestic irrigation and hydro-power projects.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2629
Pound 1.4445
Dollar Index 85.30
Aussie 0.8318
Rand 7.8425
Real 1.8814

The euro spiked higher against the dollar in afternoon trading on
Thursday, reversing a deep decline, which analysts attributed to a
combination of the reversal of more positions against the shared
currency and revived concerns about steps officials may take in
attempts to calm and stabilize markets that have become more volatile.

Analysts also noted chatter about a meeting of the European Central Bank.

This feels more like the calm before the storm, or perhaps only the
eye of the hurricane as investor sentiment does not seem to have
turned a corner on the euro.

Conclusions

Look to resell Euro.The euro is now at its highest level since May 11.

read more



World Equity Markets At a glance
World Of Finance

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index plunged 3.9 percent to 1,071.59 at 4
p.m. in New York, its biggest drop since April 2009. The Stoxx Europe
600 Index lost 2.2 percent and the S&P GSCI Index of commodities
tumbled to the lowest since October. The losses accelerated even as
the euro rallied as much as 1.5 percent to $1.2598 after earlier
flirting with a four-year low. Ten-year Treasury yields sank to the
lowest level of the year, down 15 basis points at 3.22 percent. The
yen rallied against all 16 major counterparts.

read more


Privacy and the internet Lives of others Economist
Information & Communication Technology

Facebook is not the only internet giant to provoke the ire of data
watchdogs. Google endured withering criticism this week following news
that it had recorded some personal communications sent over unsecured
Wi-Fi data networks in homes and offices in some 30 countries. On May
17th Peter Schaar, Germany’s federal commissioner for data protection,
called for an independent investigation into Google’s behaviour,
claiming that it had “simply disobeyed normal rules in the development
and usage of software.”

The cases highlight rising tension between guardians of privacy and
internet firms. And they reflect concern among web users about how
private data are made public. Several prominent internet types such as
Cory Doctorow, a science-fiction author, and Leo Laporte, a podcaster,
have abandoned Facebook. Sites such as QuitFacebookDay.com are urging
others to do so, nominating May 31st for a mass Facebook “suicide”.

Conclusions

We now exist in an Information Economy. These Organisations are the
Market Makers and Custodians of the most valuable capital of all,
Information.

read more


"Shibboleth 2007", an installation by artist Doris Salcedo, at Tate Modern London Bloomberg
Misc.

If you click on the Link You will actually land at "The weather
project" by artist Olafur Eliasson, which remains one of my favourite
Pieces of Contemporary Art but maybe that is because one of My A Level
Books was The Royal Hunt of the Sun [The story of the Spanish Chancer
Pizzarro and his capture of the Inca King Atahualpa who was considered
the Sun God] and I recently read Mahfouz's Akenhaten who was a
Worshipper of One God through the Sun.

read more



Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities

Oil prices swung wildly on Thursday, as traders worried they had put
too much faith in the economic recovery.

The price of the crude-oil futures contract for June delivery wobbled
from an advance of 2% to a slump of 8%, before settling at $68.01 a
barrel, down 2.7%, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The June
contract has shed 21% since May 3. It was the lowest closing price
since Sept. 29. The most-active July contract fell $1.68, or 2.3%, to
$70.80 a barrel.

Conclusions

"It's been a bloody market to trade in over the last several weeks,"
unless You were Short!

Platinum for July delivery lost $109.90 to settle at $1,495.80 an
ounce, the lowest settlement for a most-active contract in three
months, according to FactSet Research.

Palladium for June delivery retreated $50.75 to $408.95 an ounce, also
the lowest finish for a most-active contract in three months.

Copper had bucked the trend to post gains, but lately succumbed to the
broader metals sell-off. Copper for July delivery lost a penny to
$2.9390 a pound.

read more



Gold 24 Hour Live Quote KITCO 1175.80
Commodities

Several investors are also scrambling for cash as U.S. equities are
broadly lower. "One way to raise cash is to dump some of your winners"
such as gold, Klopfenstein said.

Conclusions

I believe Selling is related to losses being experienced in other Markets.

read more



Naomi Campbell given ‘blood’ diamond by African leader, war crimes trial told
Law & Politics

Naomi Campbell has seen the inside of many courtrooms, but she has
never been before a UN war-crimes tribunal — until now.

The British supermodel is set to play a starring role in the trial at
The Hague of Charles Taylor, the former Liberian President.
International prosecutors asked UN judges yesterday to force Ms
Campbell to testify over allegations that she received a huge “blood
diamond” from the besotted Liberian strongman.

read more


Thai Sovereign Bond Risk Rises, Baht Falls on Bangkok Gunfights Bloomberg
World Of Finance

Gunfights erupted throughout the day yesterday after 39 buildings were
set on fire in the capital and armed groups remained at large, the
army said. Reports of disturbances in northeast Thailand, home to many
of the so-called Red Shirt demonstrators, underscore the widening
social rifts that may thwart reconciliation. The stock exchange and
financial institutions are shut due to security concerns and a 9 p.m.
to 5 a.m. curfew is being enforced in a third of the country.

The credit-default swaps rose 21 basis points to 163 basis points as
of 8:54 a.m. in Singapore, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group
Plc prices. The baht fell 0.2 percent to 32.45 per dollar in offshore
trading and touched 32.47, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The currency reached 32.50 on May 17, the weakest level since March
26.

The SET Index of stocks closed 0.7 percent higher on May 19, the last
day of trading, as protest leaders told supporters to end their
demonstration. Overseas investors cut their holdings on each of this
month’s 11 trading days, dumping shares valued at $1.2 billion in that
time, according to stock exchange data.

The baht has withstood the selling, slipping just 0.3 percent since
the end of April. That’s the best performance among the currencies of
Southeast Asia’s five largest economies, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.

Conclusions

Abhisit has to show he owns the Street but the question is does this
Act of asserting ownership just inflame the Countryside?

Thai SET Index Bloomberg Visual +4.22% 2010
http://bit.ly/cStxyP

Value765.54    
Change5.430     
% Change0.714

read more


Sensex at 3 month low Yahoo Finance
Emerging Markets

Index Value:    16,335.34
Trade Time:    2:30AM EDT
Change:    Down 184.34 (1.12%)

read more



Rand Weakens Beyond 8 Per Dollar for First Time in Six Months
World Currencies

South Africa’s rand slumped to a six- month low, weakening past 8 per
dollar for the first time since November, as concern Europe’s debt
crisis will threaten the global recovery prompted investors to dump
riskier assets.

The currency of Africa’s biggest economy depreciated as much as 3
percent to 8.0800 versus the dollar, the lowest level since Nov. 2 and
the first breach of the 8 per dollar mark since Nov. 3. The rand
traded 2.3 percent down at 8.0273 by 4:33 p.m. in Johannesburg, from a
close of 7.8435 yesterday.

Conclusions

Predictably.

read more


Live Dollar versus Rand ForexPros 7.8851
World Currencies

Conclusions

Bounced Back on Euro Rally but I am expecting a sustained move through 8.10.

read more


South Africa All share Index Bloomberg Visual -4.803% 2010
World Of Finance

Value26,337.51    
Change-837.530     
% Change-3.082

Conclusions

When World Markets go into a Tail Spin South Africa follows. The
Returns in 2010 are further afield in Africa.

read more


Tunis SE Index Bloomberg Visual +14.85% 2010
Emerging Markets

Value4,928.03    
Change11.130     
% Change0.226

Conclusions

Very Low Beta and one of my Top 3 SSA Destinations.

read more


Ghana All Share Index Bloomberg Visual +27.11% 2010
Africa

Value7,083.58    
Change87.970     
% Change1.258

Conclusions

Ghana as well up ahead of a serious GDP Inflection.

read more


Russia Ready to Invest $1 Billion in Namibian Uranium Bloomberg
Minerals, Oil & Energy

Russia is ready to invest about $1 billion to develop uranium deposits
in Namibia, the world’s fourth-biggest producer of the metal, said
Sergei Kiriyenko, chief executive officer of Rosatom Corp.

“If we’re successful in our commercial negotiations, we’re ready to
invest about $1 billion in Namibia,” Kiriyenko told reporters in
Moscow today.

“These would be investments in gearing up for full-scale production,
starting initial processing in Namibia and training workers,”
Kiriyenko said after talks between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
and his Namibian counterpart, Hifikepunye Pohamba.

Russia, the fifth-largest uranium miner according to the World Nuclear
Association, signed a cooperation agreement with Namibia on
exploration and production during Pohamba’s visit, a move that may
allow them to challenge the top three producers, Kazakhstan, Canada
and Australia.

Namibia has the world’s eighth-largest proven uranium reserves, and
this will increase since parts of the country are yet to be explored,
Kiriyenko said. “From the economic perspective, Namibia’s reserves are
interesting. Production costs aren’t high so they’re commercially
attractive,” he said.

Conclusions

Further Evidence of a Tipping Point in the Affairs of Africa.

read more


Mystery of Sh164bn Nation
Kenyan Economy

A massive Sh164 billion in hard currency has found its way into the
Kenyan economy — and the government is unable to explain its source.

The $2.1 billion inflow has left government statisticians and donors
scratching their heads for answers, fuelling concerns that Kenya may
be turning into a money laundering destination by Somali pirates. Even
more intriguing is the fact that there has been a massive increase
within one year of foreign exchange whose sources cannot be traced.
The statistics show that as at January last year, the figure for
‘errors and omissions’ in the country’s balance of payments accounts
was at $1.1 billion.Having risen to $2.1 billion, the current level
represents a massive 100 per cent increase within a year. The
mysterious billions are over and above the combined last year’s export
earnings from coffee, tea and horticulture. As a matter of fact, the
line ‘errors and omissions’ has grown into the single largest item in
the economy’s balance of payments statistics.

Central Bank of Kenya governor Njuguna Ndung’u conceded that the
strange inflows had become a big worry. He said the cash was
“artificially driving the country’s balance of payments surplus”.

“We do not know where this money is from,” he added, promising that
the Central Bank was designing new systems to trace the sources of
such funds. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which keeps close
tabs on international capital flows, has already initiated discussions
on the issue with the government, Central Bank of Kenya and some of
the large commercial banks and foreign currency dealers.

Conclusions

Last Year the total ransom paid to Somali Pirates was in the order of
$100m. See Chatham House. So it might read well, all this Pirate Swag
coming in from Mogadishu but it is clearly more Fiction than Fact.

I wrote about this 4 Years ago in My Book Anyone Can be Rich. P.27
Remittances. I quote

CBK estimates that $750m is being transferred through Official
channels. Anyone who has spent time in Eastleigh or behind the main
Fruit and Vegetable market in Mombasa, has seen a thriving unofficial
Currency exchange with its own Brokers, touting for Business. This
kind of activity and also arrangements made with Friends returning
from abroad, to take some funds back home probably puts the whole
remittance number at twice the Official Figures.

It is that Gap in the data whose cumulative total is now this 'error
and Omission.'


Fruit Sellers outside the Main Mombasa Market
http://bit.ly/ays5cU

read more




The fight is on to save Kenya's green lung University of Copenhagen
Food, Climate & Agriculture

"If the Mau Forest is destroyed, Kenya will die." This is the stark
message of the scientist and Nobel Peace Prizewinner Professor Wangari
Maathai from the University of Nairobi.

The Mau Forest in Kenya supplies a land area ten times the size of
Denmark with water. The forest is by far the most important water
reservoir in a country where only a tenth of the land is suitable for
cultivation. Unfortunately, in just ten years, up to one third of the
forest has been destroyed by uncontrolled felling.

read more


THE ROVING EYE Iran, Sun Tzu and the dominatrix By Pepe Escobar
Law & Politics

Let's face it: Hillary Clinton is one hell of a dominatrix.

Ancient Chinese military general, strategist, philosopher and author
of The Art of War, Sun Tzu said, "Allow your enemy to make his own
mistakes, and don't correct them." China and Russia, both master
strategists, are applying this maxim with panache regarding the US.

Most of all, what the developing world sees is the past - US, France,
Britain, Germany - fighting against the advance of the future - China,
India, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia. The global security architecture -
policed by a bunch of fearful, self-appointed Western guardians - is
in a coma. The "Atlanticist" West is sinking Titanic-style.

At a recent Council on Foreign Relations speech in Montreal, luminary
Dr Zbigniew "let's conquer Eurasia" Brzezinski warned that a "global
political awakening", along with infighting among the global elite,
was something to be deeply feared. The former US national security
adviser remarked that "for the first time in all of human history
mankind is politically awakened - that's a total new reality - it has
not been so for most of human history".

Conclusions

Dr Zbigniew Brzezinski is in fact a supreme Intellect.

read more


Phuket Villas Go Empty as Bangkok Riots Deter Visits Bloomberg
Tourism, Travel & Transport

About 860 kilometers (534 miles) south of the rioting in Bangkok, the
island of Phuket is again counting the cost of events beyond its
control.

The worst political violence in at least 18 years, which escalated
yesterday as security forces struggled to clear rioters from buildings
in the capital, is deterring travel to Thailand and damaging Phuket’s
$3 billion tourism industry. Hotel occupancy there has dropped below
40 percent, about a third less than normal, according to the
Bangkok-based Thai Hotels Association.

Conclusions

Kenya actually had a strong Bounce from rerouting Tourists at the Time
after the Tsunami.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

Front End TBill Rates sank below 4% today confirming that the System
is awash in Liquidity. Furthermore, Continued Upgrades in GDP
Projections also is lending support. The Bourse continues to build
strength and breadth with Big Cap Banks, Equity Bank, Stanchart and
COOP [all time highs] responding aggressively.

The Bourse traded 405.961m shillings as at 14.56 in another broad
based move higher.

The NSE20 closed up 8.60 points at 4314.90 a new 2010 Closing High.
The NASI closed at 92.28 +0.14 points.
Market Cap was 1.075742 Trillion versus 1.074148 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was 414.409m versus 504.229m.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Sasini Tea closed 1.7% easier at 14.45 and traded 87,000 shares.
Rea Vipingo closed 10 cents better at 17.70 and traded 1,000 shares.
Kakuzi closed at 73.50 and traded 2,100 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume     29,739,700
total turnover      166,380,800
avg price     5.59 CLOSING PRICE 5.55 Unchanged
high price     5.65
low price     5.55
last price     5.60

Conclusions

The Full Year Results are slated for release Next week.

Safaricom was the most active share as it has been for a good number
of sessions. I increasingly err to the view that the M Kesho
Partnership [Sizing Banking Services for Ultra High Frequency and
Micro Delivery] is a serious Game Changer and in many ways a Silver
Bullet. I have asked a series of follow up questions but I am led to
believe this is a Transaction based Commercial Partnership. And one
thing Mr. Joseph knows is Scale. He is bringing 10m+ to the Table. I
think Investors have yet to grasp properly how much Product can be
worked through this.

Nation was unchanged at 139.00 and traded a 139.00-140.00 range and
47,700 shares.
Standard traded 9,700 shares at 40.50 +0.62%.

Scangroup rallied 2.4% to close at 32.00 and was trading at 33.00
+5.6% into the close. Scangroup traded 25,400 shares. Scangroup's all
time high Price is 35.00.

Access Kenya rebounded 1.98% to close at 16.90 and traded a
16.60-17.80 range. Access Kenya traded 120,000 shares.

Kenya Airways was unchanged at 56.00 and traded a 56.00-58.00 range
and 43,200 shares.

TPS Serena eased 50 cents to close at 64.50 and traded 33,300 shares.

CMC Holdings eased 0.36% to close at 13.70 and traded 52,900 shares.
CARGEN did not trade.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank was the 2nd most active Counter at the Bourse. Equity Bank
is now set to seriously extend its Reach and given its Regional
FootPrint, Investors should be considering Scale. The Price has
reacted with some forthrightness of late. Today Equity Bank closed at
22.00 +1.15% [a 20 month Closing High] and was in fact trading session
highs of 23.00 +5.75% into the Finale. Equity Bank traded 2.078m
shares worth 46.178m and Buyers continue to overwhelm Sellers by a
Factor of 2-1. It is not often that you Land 10m+ Customers in one
Fell Swoop.
COOP Bank rallied 2.48% to close at 12.40 and traded a 12.00-12.50
range and 2.771m shares worth 34.445m. COOP Bank has posted a 100.826%
return over 12 months and this its all time closing high since the
IPO.
Stanchart closed up a shilling at 220.00 and traded a session high of
225.00 +2.74%. Stanchart traded 15,800 shares and Sellers are
apparently very scarce. Stanchart trades on a 12.7 Trailing PE and has
closed at a 3 and a quarter Year high.
Barclays Bank shaved off 50 cents to close at 59.50 and traded 552,500
shares worth 33.137m.
KCB edged 1.22% lower to close at 20.25 and traded a 20.00-21.00 range
worth 4.948m. It is the Laggard amongst the Big 5.

CFC StanBic closed 0.845% firmer at 59.50 and was trading at 61.50
+4.24% into the Close. 23,100 shares were traded and the High Beta
Turnaround +150% 1st Quarter coupled with a spinning off of the Life
Business is keeping Buyers keen.
DTB eased 1.78% to close at 83.00 and traded 1,700 shares.
HFCK eased 1.1% to close at 22.50 and traded a 22.00-22.75 range and
126,000 shares. HFCK has a small takeover premium in the Price.
NBK closed 2.366% easier at 41.25 and traded 5,100 shares.
NIC eased 1.98% to close at 37.25 and traded 12,500 shares.

Kenya Re firmed 1.64% to close at 12.35 and traded 99,600 shares.
Kenya Re has returned -1.374% over 12 months and trades on a PE of
5.498.
Jubilee was unchanged at 179.00 and traded 6,300 shares. Jubilee has
returned 62.152% over 12 months and trades on a PE of 9.765.
PanAfric closed 2.5% firmer at 61.50 and traded 2,200 shares. PanAfric
trades on a PE of 20.71.

Centum closed 0.27% better at 18.90 and traded 99,400 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Equity Bank was the 2nd most active Counter at the Bourse. Equity Bank
is now set to seriously extend its Reach and given its Regional
FootPrint, Investors should be considering Scale. The Price has
reacted with some forthrightness of late. Today Equity Bank closed at
22.00 +1.15% [a 20 month Closing High] and was in fact trading session
highs of 23.00 +5.75% into the Finale. Equity Bank traded 2.078m
shares worth 46.178m and Buyers continue to overwhelm Sellers by a
Factor of 2-1. It is not often that you Land 10m+ Customers in one
Fell Swoop.
COOP Bank rallied 2.48% to close at 12.40 and traded a 12.00-12.50
range and 2.771m shares worth 34.445m. COOP Bank has posted a 100.826%
return over 12 months and this its all time closing high since the
IPO.
Stanchart closed up a shilling at 220.00 and traded a session high of
225.00 +2.74%. Stanchart traded 15,800 shares and Sellers are
apparently very scarce. Stanchart trades on a 12.7 Trailing PE and has
closed at a 3 and a quarter Year high.
Barclays Bank shaved off 50 cents to close at 59.50 and traded 552,500
shares worth 33.137m.
KCB edged 1.22% lower to close at 20.25 and traded a 20.00-21.00 range
worth 4.948m. It is the Laggard amongst the Big 5.

CFC StanBic closed 0.845% firmer at 59.50 and was trading at 61.50
+4.24% into the Close. 23,100 shares were traded and the High Beta
Turnaround +150% 1st Quarter coupled with a spinning off of the Life
Business is keeping Buyers keen.
DTB eased 1.78% to close at 83.00 and traded 1,700 shares.
HFCK eased 1.1% to close at 22.50 and traded a 22.00-22.75 range and
126,000 shares. HFCK has a small takeover premium in the Price.
NBK closed 2.366% easier at 41.25 and traded 5,100 shares.
NIC eased 1.98% to close at 37.25 and traded 12,500 shares.

Kenya Re firmed 1.64% to close at 12.35 and traded 99,600 shares.
Kenya Re has returned -1.374% over 12 months and trades on a PE of
5.498.
Jubilee was unchanged at 179.00 and traded 6,300 shares. Jubilee has
returned 62.152% over 12 months and trades on a PE of 9.765.
PanAfric closed 2.5% firmer at 61.50 and traded 2,200 shares. PanAfric
trades on a PE of 20.71.

Centum closed 0.27% better at 18.90 and traded 99,400 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2010
 
 
 
 
 
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