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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 24th of May 2010
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

Mindspeak 29th May Saturday WestGate SilverBird
Guest Speaker Sicily Kariuki MD Tea Board
0930 am Entrance Free


My Weekly Piece For the Star Kenya The Silicon Valley of Mobile Banking
http://bit.ly/a8x30k

I thank Eleni for the Interview carried on CNBC Today. Thanks Eleni.



Macro Thoughts

Thoughts remain consistent.

Home Thoughts

Some Years ago, I became extremely good Friends with a Writer [now
deceased] called Said Aburish. If I enjoy a Book I tend to write to
the Author.

Said Aburish wrote many Books about the Middle East
http://bit.ly/bt6MJd

He lived in Nice and I visited Said. I was trading a Lot of Crude Oil
then and he was always succinct and his Political Analysis was like
Gold Dust. There was a 6 month Period during the Iraq War when he was
just always on the Money [except he had never traded]. He had met
Saddam Hussein and described to me how a Visitor would be shown
through sometimes more than 20 Waiting Rooms, each room chilled more
than the previous one until you were finally brought into His
Presence, shivering like a Baby. That Night I was in Nice, he had
invited all kinds of People and Two Crown Princes, one of whom has now
become King.

He used to always ask me to read one of his Books Children of Bethany,
which I never did until yesterday when I found it in my Fortnums
Picnic Hamper and it was a very poignant read.

read more


Beyond the door marked “Austerity” Paul Mason New Statesman
Misc.

When it gets dark, Exarchia Square in Athens comes alive with the
murmur of drug dealers. Students wander past them, deep in political
argument. Posters denounce capitalism; graffiti denounces the police
harassment that has intensified since the general strike on 5 May.
Exhausted riot cops lounge on street corners.This is the civilisation
the European Union was created in order to build: layered, tribal,
intensely urban, sporadically violent, intellectual, tolerant and -
until now - resilient. Today, it faces its biggest challenge yet. For
Europe has become the weak link in the world economy.

So phase three of the global crisis poses the following danger: that
the fiscal stimulus of the past 18 months produces bankruptcy at the
level of nation states; that the markets demand austerity to prevent
it, creating in the process debt-deflation and, with it, social
unrest. This is particularly bad on the continent with the strongest
labour movement, the highest ethnic tensions and the longest history
of revolt.

Conclusions

The Theatre will be the Street next.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2501 The common currency scored its first weekly advance on the
dollar in six weeks after registering a gain Friday
Pound 1.4465
Dollar Index 85.76
Aussie 0.8282
Real 1.8526
Rand 7.81

Conclusions

1.1760 is my Next Euro Dollar Objective and Rebounds feel artificial
and not sustainable.

read more


World Equity Markets At a glance
World Of Finance

Last week, the Dow Industrials dropped 426.77 points, or 4.02% to
10193.39, the Nasdaq Composite fell 117.81 points, or 5.02% to 2229.04
and the S&P 500 declined 47.99 points, or 4.23% to 1087.69.

read more


Sexy Calico Dresses Usher in Birth of Capitalism: Lewis Lapham Bloomberg
Misc.

When the East India Company began importing chintz and calico to
England in the 17th century, fashionable ladies went wild.The light
and colorful textiles were soon being made into dresses, shirts,
tapestries, draperies and bedspreads. Once the servant girls also
began flaunting imported finery, it was clear that a new economic
order was emerging: Capitalism was taking hold.Rather than being
wicked, as long taught, consumption was now seen to stimulate the
economy and lead to greater prosperity for everyone. Spending was
better than saving and when people wanted something, they worked
harder to find the money to pay for it.

Weighing in on the calico issue, one pamphleteer defended luxury
imports as “true Spurs to Virtue, Valour and the Elevation of the
mind, as well as the just rewards of Industry.”

An evolving social phenomenon, capitalism in its current incarnation
was not inevitable, says historian Joyce Appleby, and it had to
supplant an older system that valued hierarchy, community and
tradition. I spoke with Appleby, author of “The Relentless Revolution:
A History of Capitalism” (Norton)

read more


A Gorgeous, Impractical Beast The Aston Martin Rapide WSJ
Tourism, Travel & Transport

Aston Martin's nimble Rapide is uncomfortable and odd in spots—but oh,
the look of it

The new Aston Martin Rapide is a lovely car, to be sure, and driving
one around town creates precisely the same effect on the populace as
would a young Paul McCartney striding through Waterloo Station in
1964. Never mind the panties. Investment bankers throw their
tighty-whiteys at this car.

read more


She made it big in America Patricia Kluge The Times
RealEstate, Housing & Construction

Albemarle House looks impossibly large, even from the gates of the
grounds, a mile’s drive away. As you make your way through the gentle
hills, its facade bobs up and down, disappearing and re-emerging,
before you crunch the white gravel and it looms, all pristine,
fallow-coloured brick, in front of you.

The house belongs to Patricia Kluge, a Baghdad-born Briton who was
once half of the wealthiest couple in America. She built it 25 years
ago, an English country estate re-created near Charlottesville,
northern Virginia, and it was part of the settlement in her 1990
divorce from her second husband, John Kluge, a media tycoon who was
worth $5.2 billion at the time.

read more



Live Crude Oil chart 70.71
Minerals, Oil & Energy

Crude-oil futures ended lower for the ninth consecutive session
Friday. Crude for July delivery, the most active contract, lost 76
cents, or 1.1%, to $70.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. The contract earlier hit an intraday low of $68.95 a barrel,
according to FactSet Research.

read more


Gold 24 Hour Live Continuous Spot Price KITCO 1187
Commodities

Gold futures ended lower for the fourth consecutive session on Friday,
as investors dumped the metal likely to raise cash for their other
souring investments.

Looking for 1400 This Year.

read more



Sugar July 2010 15.65 +4.23% INO
Commodities

Contract High    25.03
Contract Low    11.89

Conclusions

Might have based out.

read more


Ambani Brothers Rivalry Takes a New Turn WSJ
Asia

After battling each other in court for five years, India's billionaire
Ambani brothers are preparing to move their rivalry into the
marketplace, marking a new era for one of the most closely watched
family relationships in global business.Reliance Industries Ltd.,
backed by Asia's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, and Reliance ADA Group,
controlled by his younger brother, Anil Ambani, said Sunday they are
scrapping the 2006 noncompete agreements that prevented them from
entering the same sectors.

read more



Zenawi claims election win in Ethiopia despite poll fraud claims Independent
Law & Politics

Mr Meles came to power in 1991 when his rebel army overthrew the
regime of Haile Mengistu Mariam.

Addis Ababa enjoys strong support from the US, the EU and China
including $820m (£565m) a year in foreign aid. More than two thirds of
that comes from Washington which sees the government as a bulwark
against Islamic extremism in neighbouring Somalia.

After voting in Adwa, his hometown in the country's north, the Prime
Minister said that new roads, schools and dams had given Ethiopians
hope. "Imagine a government which has delivered double-digit growth
for over seven years losing an election anywhere on earth," he told
Reuters. "It is unheard of for such a phenomenon to happen."

As more than 32 million Ethiopians went to the polls yesterday, one
name was missing from the ballots: The 36-year-old head of Ethiopia's
main opposition party is serving a life term in prison.'s. Arguably
the country's most popular and charismatic politician, the 36-year-old
head of Ethiopia's main opposition party is serving a life term in
prison.

Conclusions

The Result was never in doubt.

But not because of this comment.

"Imagine a government which has delivered double-digit growth for over
seven years losing an election anywhere on earth," he told Reuters.
"It is unheard of for such a phenomenon to happen."

The issue for Zenawi is all about effecting Trickledown.

Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke

read more


Salva Kiir Sworn in as Southern Sudan’s First Elected President Bloomberg
Law & Politics

Salva Kiir took the oath of office as Southern Sudan’s first elected
president and promised to use the region’s oil wealth to generate a
“rural transformation” in one of the world’s poorest areas.Kiir, who
won 93 percent of the vote for the presidency of Southern Sudan in
April 11-15 elections, pledged today to lead the region to a Jan. 9
referendum to decide whether to secede from the rest of the country.

Sudanese President Umar al-Bashir’s ruling National Congress Party
hadn’t done enough to convince voters in Southern Sudan to reject
secession, Kiir said at the inaugural ceremony in Juba, the regional
capital.

“Our partners in the National Congress Party were not in a hurry to
take concrete measures to keep Sudan united,” he said, standing at the
mausoleum of John Garang, the founder of the Sudan People’s Liberation
Movement, which governs Southern Sudan.

The secession vote is part of a 2005 peace agreement which ended a
21-year war between the north and the south that killed as many as 2
million people.

“Our people want peace, for without peace there shall neither be good
governance nor development,” Kiir said. Southern Sudanese wouldn’t
accept a delay in the vote, he said.The referendum commission, which
is to organize a new voter registration drive and conduct the vote,
still hasn’t been set up. Under the referendum law, a preliminary
voter register must be published by Aug. 31.

Oil fields in the south account for most of Sudan’s oil production,
which, at 480,000 barrels a day, is sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest
producer of crude, according to the BP Statistical Review of World
Energy.

As arranged under the peace deal, the revenue from southern oil fields
is currently split between the regional government and Bashir’s
administration in Khartoum, Sudan’s capital. The sole export route for
the landlocked south is a pipeline ending in Port Sudan at the Red
Sea. The two sides haven’t reached an agreement on how to divide the
revenue after the referendum.

Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni was the only sitting head of state
in attendance at the ceremony.

Conclusions

It is headed one Way and that is the way of Seccession.

read more


Strategic resources: a richer seam By Tom Burgis FT
Minerals, Oil & Energy

Mamadou Tandja became the first African leader whose downfall could be
traced directly to his embrace of Chinese suitors. “It was because
Tandja had Chinese money that he felt he could mock the European
Union, Ecowas [the regional bloc], the US,” says Mohamed Bazoum, a
former minister who now serves on the “consultative council” created
by the military junta that seized power.

Perhaps Mr Tandja had not acquainted himself with China’s policy of
non-interference in the domestic affairs of African states. When young
officers stormed the presidential palace on February 18, Beijing was
as silent as it had been while he amassed power. The toppled president
remains under lock and key.

China, he says, has offered Africa a “more profitable option” than
other partners have. With a little overstatement, he adds: “This
country has already seen uranium extraction for nearly 40 years. But
when one sees that the direct revenues from uranium are more or less
equivalent to those derived from the export of onions each year,
there’s a problem.”

But for others, China’s efforts offer an opportunity for
industrialisation on a scale never countenanced by the colonisers of
old. Ibrahim Iddi Ango, an industrialist and president of the chamber
of commerce, is pushing for regulations that would oblige foreign
investors to foster the local private sector. He notes that France’s
Total  and others including ExxonMobil  of the US sat on the Agadem
block for years but balked at Niamey’s demands. “Each time the
government said, ‘build a refinery’, they said: ‘it’s impossible’. The
Chinese came and said: ‘A refinery? What size?’”

read more


South Africa All Share Index Bloomberg Visual -5.0892% 2010
World Of Finance

Value26,258.21    
Change-79.300     
% Change-0.301

read more



EGX 30 Index Bloomberg Visual +2.98% 2010
Emerging Markets

Value6,393.67    
Change-27.910     
% Change-0.435

read more


Nigeria All share Bloomberg Visual +28.6022% 2010
Africa

Value26,784.90    
Change-442.360     
% Change-1.625

read more


Nigeria’s Dangote in Talks Over 16% Arsenal Stake, Times Says
Misc.

Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote is in talks to buy a 16 percent
stake in Arsenal Football Club that could trigger a takeover battle
for the Premier League soccer club, the Sunday Times reported.Dangote
has registered his interest with Blackstone Group to buy the stake
from Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith, the club’s fourth-largest shareholder,
the newspaper said, without saying where it got the
information.Bracewell-Smith is seeking up to 160 million pounds ($231
million) for the holding, which is now worth 96 million pounds, the
Sunday Times said. Russia’s Alisher Usmanov and U.S. billionaire Stan
Kroenke may also buy the shares, it said.

read more


Nairobi All Share Index Bloomberg Visual +29.281% 2010
N.S.E General

Value75.19    
Change0.210     
% Change0.280

Conclusions

New 2010 High.

read more



CFC Stanbic to list insurance business The Standard
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

The company is in the process of spinning off its two insurance
businesses, Heritage and CFC Life and listing them as a separate
entity, with South Africa’s Liberty Holdings taking a controlling
stake.

"Each existing shareholder will get shares in the new company, one for
one," Kitili Mbathi, CFC Stanbic’s regional managing director in
charge of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Mauritius, said after the
company’s annual general meeting.

"It is an excellent deal because it will give the market a chance to
really value the different parts of the business which are lumped
together currently," he said.

Conclusions

I spoke last year of the Embedded Real estate and this is exactly the
pertinent Example.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

The NSE20 closed 4.76 points better at 4319.66 a new 2010 closing High
and  a 21 month High as well.
The NASI firmed 0.35 points to close at 92.63.
Equity Turnover was 311.414m versus 414.409m last time.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Sasini Tea closed lower at 14.35 and traded 27,600 shares.
Rea Vipingo traded a 100 shares at 17.60.
Kakuzi did not trade.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume     18,521,200
total turnover      102,711,832
avg price     5.55 Closing Price 5.55 Unchanged
high price     5.60
low price     5.50
last price     5.55

Conclusions

Safaricom was the most actively traded Counter again. at 5.55 The
Price is 9.016% below its 12 month high of 6.10. The Full Year Results
are slated for release Wednesday AM and is the next stop.

Scangroup rose 1.565% to close at 32.50 and traded a 31.00-33.00
range. Scangroup traded 55,700 shares. 34.75 is the 5 year High and we
are not that far away.

Access Kenya closed 5 cents easier at 16.85. Access traded a
16.50-17.80 range and 143,400 shares.

Nation was unchanged at 139.00 and traded 26,500 shares.
Standard was unchanged at 40.50.

Kenya Airways firmed 50 cents to close at 56.50 and traded a
56.00-58.00 range and 36,400 shares.

TPS Serena closed at 63.00 and was trading at 65.00 +2.36% into the
Finish. 10,400 shares were traded.

CMC Holdings eased 1.46% to close at 13.50 and traded 28,100 shares.
Cargen did not trade.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank was the 2nd most active Counter at the Bourse. Equity Bank
ramped a further 4.045% higher to close at 23.00 and spent most of the
Session at 24.00 +9.09% session highs. Equity Bank traded 3.783m
shares worth 87.765m and has returned 78.9348% over 12 months. The
Acceleration gained further traction on a Troika of Events, 1st the
Steep Inflection in the Earnings curve evidenced in the 1st Quarter
2010 Release, 2nd The China Development $50m SME Program and third the
M-Kesho tie up.

Equity Bank share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://bit.ly/1tAg4B

Barclays Bank was unchanged at 59.50 and traded 130,900 shares.
Stanchart closed at 219.00 and traded 5,200 shares. There is very
little showing on the Sell Side.
COOP Bank eased 1.61% to close at 12.20 and traded a 12.10-12.50 range
and 348,000 shares.
KCB bounced 1.235% to close at 20.50 and traded 240,800 shares.

CFC Stanbic bounced 5.88% to close at 63.00 and traded a 65.00 +9.24%
session high into the close. CFC Stanbic has further encouraged Buyers
with the News that Shareholders will receive a share in Spun Off
Insurance Arm. Management have laid down their Road Map for unlocking
Shareholder Value a d the share price has rebounded 50% since the Full
Year Earnings were released.
DTB firmed 0.6% to close at 83.50 and traded 14,700 shares.
HFCK eased 1.11% to close at 22.25 and traded 57,700 shares.
NBK eased 1.2% to close at 41.25 and traded 16,800 shares.
NIC eased 1.34% to close at 36.75 and traded 11,500 shares.

Kenya Re was unchanged at 12.35 and traded 175,200 shares.
Jubilee traded 9,700 shares all at 180.00 +0.56%.
PanAfric did not trade.

Centum closed 5 cents better at 18.95 and traded 19.50 into the close
with 175,000 shares changing hands.

Olympia Capital closed at 8.85.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Kenolkobil was marked back down 4.67% to close at 102.00 and traded a
100.00-105.00 range. Kenolkobil traded 185,300 shares worth 18.963m
and is set to split shares 10 for every one held. The Go South
Strategy apparently hit a Road Block in Zimbabwe today.
Total was also marked down closing at 28.50 -5.04% and traded a
28.00-31.50 range and 172,600 shares.

Athi River Mining traded 85,700 shares worth 11.141m all at 130.00
+0.78% and a new all time Closing High.
Bamburi closed at 200.00 +0.5% on just 100 shares traded.
Portland did not trade.

EABL firmed 0.57% to close at 175.00 and traded 94,500 shares worth 16.547m.

Mumias Sugar eased 0.38% to close at 13.00 and traded 1.191m shares
worth 15.511m.

KENGEN shaved off 5 cents to close at 17.35 and traded a 17.30-17.45
range and 208,600 shares.
KPLC traded 700 shares at 200.00 unchanged.
Cables closed lower at 20.25 and traded 96,300 shares.

BAT improved 0.505% to close at 199.00 and traded just 2,200 shares.
BOC Kenya did not trade.
Carabacid was marked down 4.32% to close at 155.00 and traded 6,700 shares.
Crown Berger eased 0.72% to close at 34.50 and traded 5,400 shares.
Eveready eased 3.24% to close at 4.50 and traded 76,000 shares.
Sameer closed lower at 8.75 and traded 85,200 shares.
Unga closed lower at 11.80 and traded 27,400 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2010
 
 
 
 
 
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