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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 25th of May 2010

www.rich.co.ke Register and its all Free.

If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox
as your Browser.
0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here

Mindspeak this Saturday 29th May 0930-1200
Westgate SilverBird Cinema No.1
Entrance Free
Guest Speaker Sicily Kariuki MD Tea Board

The Star Weekly Piece Kenya The Silicon Valley of Mobile Banking

Macro Thoughts

Euro 1.1760 then 1.0950.

Home Thoughts

Still reading through Said Aburish's Childhood in Bethany. A Curious
and poignant read actually.

read more

Kim Jong Il Orders Military to Get Ready for Combat Bloomberg
Law & Politics

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il ordered the country’s military to get
ready for combat in a message televised nationwide last week following
South Korea’s announcement that North Korea torpedoed the South’s
warship.The message was broadcast on May 20 by O Kuk Ryol, vice
chairman of the National Defense Commission, according to the website
of North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity, a Seoul-based group run by
defectors from the communist country. Yonhap News agency reported on
the group’s posting earlier today.

The South Korean won declined as much as 4.3 percent to 1,272.45
against the dollar after the Yonhap report.


Game Theory or is it? Which is exactly the Question Kim wishes to
pose, I venture.

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Blue-Eyed Ruler, Empty Ruins Syria Bloomberg
Law & Politics

On the road to Damascus, the piercing blue eyes of Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad  stare from kitschy signs everywhere: Mosaic Bashar
with Roman ruins; Farmer Bashar with olives; Sporty Bashar suspended
over a soccer stadium.

Syria, which leaned to the Soviets in the Cold War and has long been
blamed for unrest in Lebanon, Israel and Iraq, is experiencing its own
conversion. Al-Assad has pointed westward since the death of his
father, Hafez al-Assad, in 2000.

And all roads lead to the Umayyad Mosque, a former Byzantine church
built over a Roman temple. Talk about recycling.

“Sometimes I come to sit here in the courtyard and watch people when I
need to think for a while,” says Mohammed. “It’s very peaceful. You
don’t hear the Damascus traffic.”

Byzantine columns rise around us, supporting walls adorned with
forests of gold and green mosaic palm fronds. I could lose my head
pondering the serene beauty, but somebody may have beaten me to it.
St. John the Baptist is supposedly entombed at Umayyad.

1. Worshippers gather at the marble shrine to St. John the Baptist in
Ummayad Mosque, Damascus, Syria. St. John the Baptist is considered an
important figure in the Muslim religion. Photographer: Michael

2. A portrait of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad at a border
checkpoint between Lebanon and Syria.


Quite a Central Fellow. I am sure President Obama would like to peel
him off Iran.

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Asian stocks won plunge after a report that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il ordered his military to prepare for combat last week

Asian stocks  and the won plunged to the lowest in 10 months after a
report that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il ordered his military to
prepare for combat last week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 2.2
percent to 109.82 as of 12:09 p.m. in Tokyo, set for its lowest close
since July 30.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula ratcheted higher as the North’s
military was placed on alert last week, the North Korea Intellectuals
Solidarity group reported on its website, citing a person in the
communist country. The U.S. yesterday announced plans to conduct joint
anti-submarine exercises with South Korea after the March 26 sinking
of one of the South’s warships cost 46 lives.

“Europe is walking on land mines that have yet to explode,” said
Fumiyuki Nakanishi

MSCI Asia Pacific Index Bloomberg Visual

read more

Currency Markets At A Glance
World Currencies

Euro 1.2303
Pound 1.4360
Dollar Index 86.73
Aussie 0.8205
Real 1.8680
Rand 7.90
South Korean Won 1263.60 was 1214.62

Short squeezes -- when traders are forced to reverse bets that a
currency will lose value -- tend to play out quickly, he said. With no
positive news to buoy the single currency, the euro quickly succumbed
to negative sentiment.

"I don't see what the compunction would be to buy the euro," Maher said.


My Sentiments exactly.

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World Equity Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Of Finance

The Dow fell 126.82 points, or 1.24% to 10066.57. The Nasdaq Composite
lost 15.49 points, or 0.69% to 2213.55. The S&P 500 fell 14.04 points,
or 1.29% to 1073.65.

read more

A Golden Age and Its Heirs Architecture Andrea Palladio WSJ
RealEstate, Housing & Construction

A present-day shot of the iconic Villa Almerico Capra Valmarana, known
as La Rotonda, in Vicenza.

read more

Live Crude Oil chart 69.31 Last
Minerals, Oil & Energy

Crude for July delivery advanced 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $70.21 a barrel
on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices dipped in and out of the
red during the session, but found firmer footing toward the end of
floor trading.The contract hit an intraday high of $70.96 a barrel,
according to FactSet Research.

Moreover, "the bounce you have today is unsubstantial," said Jay
Levine, president of Enerjay LLC in Portland, Maine. "You have a
complete loss of confidence that the economy, here and abroad, is
really in recovery mode."

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Live 24 Hour Continuous Spot Gold Price KITCO 1190.80 Last

Gold futures for June delivery rose $17.90, or 1.5%, to settle at
$1,194 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The
yellow metal dropped $51.70 last week, the worst weekly drop since the
five-day period ended Feb. 27, 2009. Gold closed at a record of
$1,243.10 an ounce on May 12.



read more

Kospi Index Bloomberg Visual -8.08% 2010
Emerging Markets

% Change-3.671

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Chinese engineers propose world's biggest hydro-electric project in Tibet The Guardian
Minerals, Oil & Energy

Chinese hydropower lobbyists are calling for construction of the
world's biggest hydro-electric project on the upper reaches of the
Brahmaputra river as part of a huge expansion of renewable power in
the Himalayas.Zhang Boting, the deputy general secretary of the China
Society for Hydropower Engineering, told the Guardian that a massive
dam on the great bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo - the Tibetan name for
the river - would benefit the world, despite the likely concerns of
downstream nations, India and Bangladesh, which access water and power
from the river.Zhang said research had been carried out on the
project, but no plan has been drawn up. But documents on the website
of a government agency suggest a 38 gigawatt hydropower plant is under
consideration that would be more than half as big again as the Three
Gorges dam, with a capacity nearly half as large as the UK's national

read more

Ethiopia ruling party set for sweep Aljazeera
Law & Politics

Ethiopia's ruling party has won a national election, according to
provisional results.

Merga Bekana, Ethiopia’s electoral board chairman, announced the
results on Monday, saying that the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF) won a majority of votes from nine of 11
regions that have reported results.Bekana said the party also is ahead
in 20 of the capital's 23 parliamentary seats, with only two left to
report results in the capital, Addis Ababa. There are 546 assembly
seats in all.The EPRDF also crushed an eight-party opposition
coalition known as Medrek, in the Horn of Africa nation's largest
region, Oromia, which has been a stronghold of opponents.

"Definitely, at this point the EPRDF has won, definitely," Bekana said.

A victory for EPRDF would extend the time in office of Meles Zenawi,
the Ethiopian prime minister, to nearly 25 years.

read more

Southern Africa to Post Slowest Growth on Continent Bloomberg
World Of Finance

Southern Africa, the region of the continent hit hardest by the global
credit crisis, will also be the slowest to recover, the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development said.The region will expand
about 4 percent this year and in 2011, while countries in East Africa,
which weathered the crisis the best, will post the continent’s fastest
growth of more than 6 percent, the OECD said in a joint report today
with the African Development Bank and the United Nations Economic
Commission on Africa.

Overall growth in Africa will rebound to 4.5 percent this year and 5.2
percent in 2011, after the global recession slashed demand for
commodities, such as oil and copper, slowing growth on the continent
to 2.5 percent in 2009, the report said. Africa has recovered faster
from the crisis as slower inflation and reduced debt allowed
governments to increase spending to cushion the impact of falling
exports, the OECD said.

“Africa proved to be more resilient to the global crisis than some
observers had feared thanks to prudent macro policies prior to the
downturn that resulted in improved economic fundamentals in many
African countries,” said the report, released in Abidjan, the
commercial capital of Ivory Coast.

Southern Africa will expand 3.4 percent in 2010 and 4.3 percent in
2011, while countries in East Africa are forecast to grow 6.2 percent
this year and 6.4 percent next year, the report said. Economic growth
in North and West Africa will probably average about 5 percent in 2010
and 2011, the report said.The OECD’s estimates compare with the
International Monetary Fund’s forecast of 4.7 percent growth in
Sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 and 5.9 percent in 2011.

The report was released ahead of the African Development Bank’s annual
meeting on May 27 and 28 in Abidjan, where the lender’s 77 members are
due to re-elect Donald Kaberuka as head of the bank for another
five-year term and approve a tripling in the bank’s capital base to
about $100 billion.

The European debt crisis may undermine global growth, hurting progress
on the continent, Peter Walkenhorst, an official in the African
Development Bank’s research department, said in a presentation in
Abidjan today.

“Any fiscal retrenchment in Europe will have an impact and can result
in growth levels below our projections,” Walkenhorst said.

Demand for commodities from China and India may help to offset that,
helping to sustain growth in Africa, Mthuli Ncube, chief economist of
the African Development Bank said.

“The real worry is oil prices, but only if it goes below $40 a
barrel,” said Ncube.

The report urged African nations to boost taxes, through “more
effective, efficient and fair taxation,” to reduce their reliance on
donor aid. A 2008 study found that countries such as Burundi,
Guinea-Bissau, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone and Ethiopia
collected between $20 and $40 in taxes per capita annually.

“Tax effort estimates confirm that some countries collect as little as
half of what would be expected, giving their living standards and
economic structures,” the report said.

Donor aid to Africa reached $128.6 billion in 2008, equivalent to 0.2
percent of the continent’s gross domestic product, according to data
from the World Bank.

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East Africa's monetary goal undaunted by euro woes Reuters
East Africa

East African Community, a five-nation trade bloc that aims to have a
monetary union in 2012, said on Monday that problems in the euro area
will serve as a lesson but will not discourage its move to a single
currency.East African Community (EAC) comprises Uganda, Kenya,
Tanzania, Uganda and Burundi. It already has a customs union, and a
common market is due to take effect in July. After the monetary union,
it eventually aims to have a political federation.

Juma Mwapachu, EAC's secretary general, said the bloc was watching
events in the European union, hoping to learn from the Greek debt
experience, and avoid similar pitfalls.

"The lesson for us is not that we should slow down our movement
towards the monetary union, but really to ensure that we do not find
any of our member states, falling into the kind of experience that
Greece has gone into," Mwapachu told Reuters.

"I think the EAC region has got to be concerned that the euro area is
going through this kind of turbulence. But then it really goes down to
point out how critical it is that you do have effective macroeconomic
convergence," Mwapachu said.

EAC has a gross domestic product of $73.3 billion and a population of
close to 127 million.

read more

South Africa All share Bloomberg Visual
World Of Finance

% Change1.979

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MTN Group rallied 6% yesterday Bank of America Upgrade
Information & Communication Technology

MTN Group Ltd. (MTN SJ) rallied 5.90 rand, or 6 percent, to 104.50
rand, the biggest intraday gain in a year. Africa’s largest
mobile-network operator was raised to “buy” from “neutral” at Bank of
America Merrill Lynch, which cited the stock’s valuation as “hard to

MTN Group share price data Bloomberg

52-Wk High (05/25/09)13,600.000   
52-Wk Low (05/21/10)9,502.000   
1-Yr Return-18.171

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Kenya to Wait for a Few Months Before Deciding on Sovereign Bond Bloomberg
Kenyan Bills & Bonds - Short Term

Kenya will “wait for a few months” before deciding on whether to issue
a sovereign bond, central bank Governor Njunguna Ndung’u said in the
capital, Nairobi, today.Kenya, which is seeking ratings from
credit-rating agencies, “can’t tell yet” whether markets are ready for
a sovereign bond, he said.

read more

Safaricom MPESA
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Mobile banking has proven to be hugely popular in Kenya, commented
Greg Reeve, head of mobile payments solutions at Vodafone, during the
same conference call.Vodafone has been offering its M-Pesa mobile
money transfer service in Kenya via Safaricom since 2007.When M-Pesa
first launched the average value of each transaction was around $20,
but Reeve said this has slowly crept up and now stands at nearly $30
per transaction. "11% of Kenya's GDP was shifted through M-Pesa last
year, and this year we expect to shift 20%," said Reeve.Safaricom last
week launched a mobile bank account in partnership with Kenya's Equity
Bank called M-Kesho, which enables M-Pesa customers to deposit and
transfer savings via their handsets.

read more

Serena group to use Sh1bn for growth Nation
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Serena Group of hotels is set to take an expansion route after
shareholders approved Sh1.2 billion rights issue at their annual
general meeting on Monday.As a result, the company listed as Tourism
Promotional Service (TPS) Eastern Africa at the Nairobi Stock
Exchange, will issue 24.7 million new shares at the bourse subject to
regulatory approvals.The stocks will further be distributed at the
rate of one new share for every five held by the existing owners.

“This is a vote of confidence in the management team and our ambitious
plans for expansion and growth of the company,” said managing director
Mr Jan Mahmud.

Proceeds of the issue are to be used to capitalise Jaja Ltd, a special
purpose vehicle to be used by TPS (Kenya) for the development of a
number of tourist properties in Kenya.The new projects will include
the construction of Elementaita Serena Luxury Camp.The group also
plans to acquire 51 per cent of Upekee Lodges Ltd by TPS (Tanzania),
buy assets of Mbuzi Mawe Tented Camp and Mountain Village by TPS
(Tanzania).The funds will also be used in the refurbishment of Nairobi
Serena, which so far remains the flagship product of the
group.Additionally, the owners also approved a bonus share issue to be
distributed apiece against every six currently held.With the
shareholders giving the group the green-light, the next process now
remains the approval of market regulators, Capital Markets Authority
and the NSE.

“Long-term borrowing and other sources of funds that the board may
deem appropriate will complement the funds raised from the rights
issue,” said Mr Mahmud.


Bulking Up.

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TPS Serena share price data Full Year Results from www.rich.co.ke
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:          63.00
Total Shares Issued:          105,864,744
Market Capitalization:        6,669M
EPS:            3.60
PE:                17.500

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Kenyan ranch in the spotlight as widow seeks Sh900bn inheritance The Nation

The 66,000-acre property, located 40 kilometres from Nanyuki town,The
money she seeks is about Sh100 billion more than the Kenya
Government’s 2009/2010 budget.He married Swiss-born Jocelyne Perisse
in 1978 in a ceremony at Las Vegas after the couple had been
introduced a year before by Adnan Khashoggi, a multi-millionaire Saudi
arms dealer, who had invited Jocelyne to stay at his Ol Pejeta Ranch
in Kenya.Wildenstein’s own estate — the 66,000-acre Ol Jogi Ranch — is
nearby, and it was arranged that Jocelyne should join Alec on a dawn
lion hunt. Within a year, he had proposed.

The couple turned the ranch into a private playground in the wild. In
the ranch are giraffe, leopard, lion, white rhino and other big game,
some imported from South Africa. It is also the only place in Africa
with a bear.Guests are generally expected to fly in, and it is not
advertised on the Internet as with other exclusive resorts.Refinements
include the building of nearly 200 km of road, 55 artificial lakes, a
swimming pool with rocks and waterfalls, a golf course, a racetrack,
and a tennis court with floodlights — all maintained by a horde of 366

read more

S.Africa's recovery gains momentum,GDP up 4.6 pct Reuters
World Of Finance

South Africa's economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the
first quarter of 2010 after last year's downturn, although financial
woes in Europe could undermine future expansion.Statistics South
Africa said quarter-on-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was up 4.6
percent on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis, partly boosted
by preparations for the soccer World Cup, compared with a 3.2 percent
rise in the fourth quarter.Africa's biggest economy expanded by 1.6
percent year-on-year unadjusted, compared with a 1.4 percent
contraction in the previous quarter.

Growth was led mainly by manufacturing and mining, which grew 8.4
percent and 15.4 percent respectively.

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The Year that Was: The Siege of Africa Forbes India

GAME FOR TECH: NIIT's IT scholarship test in Nigeria attracted enough
people to fill a football stadium

The newest frontier for global business. A fusion of tempting
opportunity and formidable risk. A China-India battleground. Come,
watch the potboiler called Africa

But before we responded to the new Africa, someone else did. In a
well-planned strategy, state-run Chinese firms are building bridges,
roads, telecom networks, airports. In return, they are getting access
to natural resources.

Unlike China, the Indian march to Africa has been led by the private
sector. Big ticket investments and acquisitions are emerging. In early
August, the Essar group bought a refinery in Mombasa, Kenya. NIIT has
grown to be one of the continent’s biggest firms in information
technology training. Indica cars are a common sight in Johannesburg.
Consumer products company Marico is already in Egypt and South Africa.

The Chinese are playing a game of scale. “We are nearly five to seven
years late,” admits Prashant Ruia, group CEO of Essar. “They are
taking a 20 year investment risk — something private companies like us
cannot do,” he adds.

Now, there was one rival that India had to watch out for in Africa —
China. Unlike Indian companies that go to Africa on their own might,
the Chinese go there with implicit — and explicit – support from their
government. In less than 30 years, China has increased its trade with
Africa 50 times. Chinese workers are all over the place building big
infrastructure projects. It is not uncommon to see planeloads of
African ministers taken on China-sponsored junkets before big deals
are finalised. Some have raised concerns that what happens is akin to
China’s colonisation of Africa.

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N.S.E Today

Quite a bit of Turbulence is washing over the Foreign Exchange Markets
where the Shilling topped 80.00 versus the Dollar today. The Shilling
is actually being buffeted by a weaker Euro.

The NSE20 eked out an 0.41 point gain to close at 4320.06 a new 20
month and 2010 High.
The NASI was down 0.05 points to close at 92.58.
Market Cap was 1.079315 Trillion versus 1.079822 Trillion.
The Bourse traded good volume of 671.927m versus 311.414m.

All eyes are on Safaricom's Full Year Earnings Release tomorrow, The
Price retreated today ahead of the Release.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Kakuzi closed higher at 76.00 and traded 10,400 shares.
Sasini was unchanged at 14.35 and traded 135,800 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


shares volume     36.565m
CLOSING PRICE 5.40 -2.7%
high price     5.60
low price     5.35
last price     5.35


Safaricom was the most active Counter again. Full Year results are
slated for release in the Morning before the Bell. I sense some Fast
Money Accounts have been pressurising the price in the last few
sessions. Baseline for tomorrow is probably 33.6 cents [assuming no
acceleration versus the 1st Half] but I think the market skew is
around 35 cents.

Access Kenya eased 0.89% to close at 16.70 and traded 145,500 shares.

Scangroup was well traded with 415,500 shares changing hands.
Scangroup closed at 32.00 and traded a 32.00-32.50 range. The Ogilvy
Transaction has been seen as transformative re Scangroup's SSA

CMC Holdings firmed 1.11% to close at 13.65 on good volume of 628,100
shares. There has been material Movement on this share Register since
the Profits Warning.
Cargen dipped 2.5% lower to close at 48.75 and traded 1,800 shares.

TPS Serena traded 9,200 shares and closed unchanged at 63.00.

Kenya Airways shaved off 50 cents to close at 56.00 and traded 74,200 shares.

Nation eased a shilling to close at 139.00 and traded 3,800 shares.
Standard traded 4,100 shares and closed at 40.25.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

The Big Cap Banks [KCB The Laggard]  continue to display independent

Strength at the Bourse and have seriously outperformed of late. Equity
Bank, Standard Chartered and COOP Bank lead with CFC StanBic snapping
at their heels

Equity Bank was the 2nd most active Counter at the Bourse after
Safaricom. Equity Bank rallied a further 4.344% to close at 24.00.
Equity Bank has rallied just under 30% in 6 Trading sessions and this
closing level was last seen in Sep 2008. Equity Bank traded a a
22.00-25.25 range and 5.68m shares worth 136.468m. Buyers have been
caught on the back foot via a Trifecta of announcements starting with
a sharp Inflection in the 1st Quarter 2010 Earnings release, the $50m
China Development Bank Tie Up and the M-Kesho Partnership.
Stanchart rallied a further 2.2833% to close at 224.00 and was trading
a session high of 225.00 into the close. Stanchart traded 23,400
shares. Stanchart also released very muscular 1st Quarter Earnings.
COOP Bank was unchanged at 12.20 and traded a 12.10-12.80 range. COOP
Bank traded 1.147m shares worth 14.030m. This is an all time High
since its IPO.
Barclays Bank was unchanged at 59.50 and traded 139,800 shares.
KCB was unchanged at 20.50 and traded 324,900 shares.

CFC Stanbic rallied 7.146% to close at 67.50 and traded a session high
of 69.00 +9.52% into the close. CFC Stanbic traded 123,800 shares and
Buyers have become a whole lot more eager since Kitili outlined the
Insurance Spin Off Road Map which is set to unlock Value for
NIC traded 1.038m shares worth 39.451m and rallied 2.72% to close at 37.75.
DTB rose 3.59% to close at 86.50 and traded 9,000 shares.
HFCK dipped 1.12% to close at 22.00 and traded 31,200 shares.
NBK rallied 1.21% to close at 41.75 and traded 150,300 shares.

Kenya Re closed 5 cents better at 12.40 on 246,500 shares.
Jubilee traded 18.700 shares and closed a shilling lighter at 179.00.
PanAfric was marked up to close at 66.50 with 4,500 shares traded.

Centum traded 202,900 shares and closed at 19.05.

Olympia Capital was marked down to close at 8.40 and traded 1,400 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

ARM firmed a further 1.54% to close at 132.00 and traded a 130-135.00
range and 236,300 shares worth 31.271. This is a New All Time High and
ARM has now run a sequence of about 5 all time consecutive Closing
Bamburi was the 3rd most active Counter at the Bourse. Bamburi closed
unchanged at 200.00 and traded 280,700 shares worth 56.139m.
Portland traded 1,600 shares all at 123.00 -1.6%.

KenolKobil eased back a further 1.96% to close at 100.00 and traded a
99.00-103.00 range and 380,500 shares worth 38.082m.
Total firmed 1.75% to close at 29.00 and traded a 30.00 session high
and 122,200 shares.

EABL was unchanged at 175.00 and traded 193,500 shares worth 33.885m.
We are at a 12 month High here.

Mumias Sugar dipped 5 cents to close at 12.95 and traded 891,700 shares.

BAT traded 2,700 shares at 200.00 +0.5% and had demand for 50x the
traded Volume. The Continued rerating of GOK Tbills [recently dipped
below 4%] makes BAT an attractive Place because of its Dividend Yield,
compared to call money, for example.

Kengen retreated 1.7325% to close at 17.05. Kengen traded a
15.80-17.35 range and 359,900 shares worth 6.145m.
KPLC was unchanged at 200.00 and traded a 199.00-202.00 range and
69,400 shares worth 13.886m.
Cables closed 1.23% easier at 20.00 and traded 26,100 shares.

BOC Kenya traded 2,600 shares at 125.00 -1.57%.
Carbacid rose 3 shillings to close at 158.00 and traded 2,600 shares.
Crown Berger closed 2.175% better at 35.25 and traded 6,100 shares.
Eveready was unchanged at 4.50 and traded 73,700 shares.
Sameer closed 1.91% better at 8.90 and traded 36,400 shares.
Unga closed at 11.95 and traded 15,500 shares.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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May 2010

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