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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 26th of May 2010
 
Afternoon
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
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Mindspeak 29th May 0930 am for 10 am Start
Westgate Cinema 1
Guest Speaker Sicily Kariuki MD The Tea Board

The [Tea] Farmers will drive the Ferraris The Star
http://j.mp/b7fbfU

The #Star Kenya the #Silicon Valley of #Mobile Banking
http://j.mp/a8x30k

Macro Thoughts

Gold 1400.00.

Home Thoughts

I have been a little swept off my Feet this Morning. Safaricom released
their Full Year Results this morning, see below. And Then I dashed
across Town to sit down with Sicily Kariuki The MD of The Tea Board
who is my Guest Speaker at Mindspeak this Saturday.

read more


Clinton calls for retaliation against North Korea during solidarity visit to Seoul Times
Law & Politics

South Korean ships and North Korean submarines were playing a
cat-and-mouse game in the Sea of Japan today as foreign governments
struggled to find a response to the North’s sinking of a South Korean
naval ship.Speaking in Seoul, alongside the South Korean foreign
minister, the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, called on the
international community to take retaliatory action against Pyongyang,
which is accused of causing the deaths of 46 sailors in an unprovoked
torpedo attack on the corvette Cheonan in March.

But she failed to specify any concrete measures, underlining how few
options, short of full scale war, are available in dealing with the
North.

“This was an unacceptable provocation by North Korea and the
international community has a responsibility and a duty to respond,”
Mrs Clinton said in Seoul after talks with her South Korean
counterpart, Yu Myung Hwan.

“We cannot turn a blind eye to belligerence and provocation. We will
stand with you in this difficult hour and will stand with you always.”

She added: “We call on North Korea to halt its provocations and its
policy of threats and belligerence towards its neighbours… The United
States is also reviewing additional options and authorities to hold
North Korea and its leaders accountable.”

Conclusions

An Absolute Conundrum.

read more


Currency Markets At A Glance
World Currencies

Euro 1.2306
Pound 1.4417
Dollar Index 86.60
Real 1.8437
Aussie 0.8282
Rand 7.771
South Korean Won 1253.20

The euro plunged to its lowest level against the yen since October
2001 and dropped near to a four-year low against the dollar before
staging a modest rebound. South Korea, meanwhile, defended the won for
the first time in more than a year Tuesday with a massive
intervention.

Conclusions

Another Leg Lower coming.

read more


Dollar versus South Korean Won INO 3 Month Chart 1251.65 Last
World Currencies

Foreign investors were net sellers of local shares for an eighth
straight session this day. Such sales are usually accompanied by
fund-repatriation in the currency market, weighing on the won.

read more



Traders Rev Up Aston Martins, Maseratis as Supercar Taboo Fades Bloomberg
Tourism, Travel & Transport


Aston Martin V12 Vantage automobile on display during the Frankfurt Motor Show.

Super-luxury cars, whose sales plunged after Lehman Brothers Inc.’s
collapse and the ensuing financial crisis, are making a comeback. Fiat
SpA’s  Maserati and Ferrari brands, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG’s
Rolls-Royce and Daimler AG’s Maybach are moving out of the lots again
as taboos over conspicuous consumption fade with the recovering
economy.U.S. sales this year of cars priced at more than $100,000 may
jump 42 percent after falling 30 percent in 2009, according to
automotive industry researcher IHS Global Insight. U.S. gross domestic
product has expanded on average an annualized 3.7 percent a quarter
since the middle of last year after the biggest economic slump since
the Great Depression.

“Some people were affected by the recession and others weren’t going
to buck the trends in their social circles,” he said of the cutbacks.
“Up until about six months ago you were an a-hole if you bought fancy
toys.”

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities

Gold prices were back above $1,200 a troy ounce as fears over the euro
zone's debt problems drove investors to the limited number of assets
deemed to be safe.

read more




Nigeria May Reduce Euro Holdings as Currency Slumps Bloomberg
World Currencies

Nigeria’s central bank may reduce the amount of euros it holds in its
reserves if the European currency’s decline continues, a senior
official said.The central bank holds 15 percent of its foreign
currency reserves in euros and almost 80 percent in dollars, Lamido
Yuguda, director of the bank’s reserves management department, said in
an interview yesterday in Abidjan, the commercial capital of Ivory
Coast.The euro has slumped 8.1 percent against the dollar since the
beginning of this month as concerns mount that Greece’s debt crisis
may spread to other nations in the euro-zone. Nigeria, which vies with
Angola to be Africa’s biggest oil producer, has increased foreign
currency reserves more than six-fold in the past decade as crude oil
prices climbed, Yuguda said.

“We have about 15 percent of euro in our portfolio and that’s enough
to make us concerned,” Yuguda said. “We don’t change because of
short-term developments. If there are long- term concerns then we’ll
change it.”

Nigeria’s foreign reserves dropped to $39.8 billion on May 19 from
$41.1 billion a month earlier, the Central Bank of Nigeria said on May
21. Reserves declined from a high of $58.3 billion in March 2008 as
crude oil prices fell.

The bank is considering creating a bond fund that central banks in
Africa can invest part of their reserves in.

“What we need is more active domestic bond markets,” Thierry de
Longuemar, vice president of finance at the African Development Bank,
said in an interview. “We would like central banks to trigger the
process. Instead of investing your reserves to fund the deficit of the
United States or Europe or Japan, why don’t you invest a bit of that
to buy bonds insured by your brother countries in Africa. By doing
that you’ll create interest in the development of a local market.”

read more


South African Economy to Grow 3.3% This Year, OECD Forecasts Bloomberg
World Of Finance

South Africa’s economic growth  is likely to exceed the Treasury’s
target this year and next as a global economic rebound bolsters demand
for exports, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
forecast.

Africa’s largest economy will probably expand 3.3 percent this year
and 5 percent in 2011, after contracting 1.8 percent last year, the
Paris-based OECD said in a report released on its website today. In
the Feb. 17 budget, the Treasury forecast growth of 2.3 percent this
year and 3.2 percent in 2011.

South Africa All Share Index Bloomberg Visual -3.422% 2010
http://j.mp/8rEgBs

Value26,719.95   
Change540.110
% Change2.063

read more


Nigeria All share Index Bloomberg Visual +25.241% 2010
Africa

Value26,084.67   
Change176.550    
% Change0.681

read more



Nigerian billionaire interested in Arsenal stake New Statesman
Africa

Aliko Dangote, one of Africa's richest industrialists, is eyeing a 16
per cent stake in Arsenal Football Club, the Sunday Times has
reported.The Nigerian billionaire is in talks to buy the stake
currently worth £96m, being sold by Blackstone on behalf of the club's
fourth-largest shareholder Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith, who is
reportedly asking for £160m for the holding.Dangote is the founder of
a manufacturing empire with interests ranging from sugar to telecom,
and was ranked by Forbes among the world's 500 richest people, worth
an estimated $2.5bn (£1.7bn).

The two biggest investors in the Premier League football club -
American sports tycoon Stan Kroenke, who at 29.9 per cent owns the
largest single shareholding in the club, and Russian oligarch Alisher
Usmanov, who owns a 26 per cent stake through his Red & White Holdings
investment vehicle - are also keen on buying the shares.

The shareholding is expected to be sold for about £15,000 a share, and
is seen by analysts as key to the future ownership of the north London
club, where pre-tax profits are set to be about £56m this year.

read more


Safaricom reports Full Year Results here share price data from www.rich.co.ke
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:          5.55
Total Shares Issued:          40,000,000,000
Market Capitalization:        222,000M
EPS:            0.38
PE:                14.605

Swot Analysis
Revenue 83.950b versus 70.479b = +19.1%
Operating Profit 22.61b versus 16.175b = +39.8%
Profit after Tax 15.148b versus 10.536b = +43.6%
Dividend increased +100%
EPS 0.38 versus 0.27 = +44.2%
Sequential Half Year versus Half Year 0.212 versus 0.168 +26.19%
Subscriber Numbers +18.2% at 15.79m
Data Revenue as a % of Total Revenue increased to 18.7%  from 12.9%
MPESA 9.48m Registered Users
97.7% Increase in Mobile and Fixed Data Revenue

Conclusions

I cannot Fault these results. Yesterday My Views were taken by the
Nation and I said 40c a share EPS would be hitting the Ball out of the
Park. The Company came very close.

I like the Acceleration and think Few Companies are in a position  to
lift their Dividends by a Quantum of 100% and that is a statement in
itself.

read more


Kenya sugar output at a record in 2009: board Reuters
Commodities

Kenya's sugar output rose by 5 percent to 548,207 tonnes in 2009 and
imports were down 16 percent to 184,530 tonnes, the industry regulator
said on Tuesday.

"This is the highest production ever achieved in the sugar industry,"
the Kenya Sugar Board said in an annual statistics report. Mumias
Sugar produced 45.3 percent of the total sugar.Although the east
African nation has a deal with the Common Market for Eastern and
Southern Africa (COMESA) trade bloc to restrict imports from the bloc
to 200,000 tonnes per year to protect its industry, members supplied
only 40 percent.The main supplier of sugar was Saudi Arabia with
47,479 tonnes, followed by South Africa with 46,584 tonnes.

The sugar board said global consumption was outpacing production.
Kenya's sugar consumption is estimated at some 750,000 tonnes in 2009.

read more



Total Kenya swings back into pretax profit in Q1 2010 Reuters
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Total Kenya posted a first-quarter pretax profit of 308.21 million
shillings ($3.9 million) on Wednesday, due to higher sales and
international oil prices, having lost 162.34 million shillings in the
same period last year.The oil marketer (TOTL.NR: Quote), part of
French oil giant Total (TOTF.PA: Quote), said turnover for the three
months ending March 31 rose to 21 billion shillings from 8.93 billion
shillings.Total Kenya said sales volumes were also boosted after its
merger with Chevron's (CVX.N: Quote) Kenya unit last year
[ID:nLM580725].The company said its performance over the rest of the
year would be dependent on the availability of petroleum products at
its upcountry depot served by the country's pipeline, increased
efficiency at Kenya's refinery and stable international prices.

"The management is also optimistic that we shall begin to realise the
benefits of synergies of the merged company which have the potential
of improved performance," it said.

"Sales went up ... not only from the merger but also from a very good
performance in the network and consumer channels," Total said in its
quarterly financial statement.

read more


Welcome to the house of Vuitton The Guardian
Retail & Manufacturing

Louis Vuitton's new London store – sorry, maison – takes the art of
luxury shopping to a whole new level

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

We hit quite a Squall today.
The NSE20 closed 57.83 points easier at 4262.24.
The NASI eased 0.71 points to close at 91.87.
Market Cap was 1.070964 Trillion versus 1.079315 Trillion.
Equity Turnover went off the radar with 1.482b shillings versus
671.927m last time.
Safaricom had its highest Volume this Year and since the IPO.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Kakuzi closed at 75.00 and traded 1,300 shares.
Rea Vipingo traded 22,000 shares and closed at 17.45.
Sasini traded 160,000 shares and closed lower at 13.60.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM

shares volume     150.964M
avg price     5.41 Closing Price 5.40 Unchanged
high price     5.70
low price     5.30
last price     5.30

Conclusions

Safaricom had its biggest Trading Day since the IPO. The Full Year
Profits jumped 44%, The Dividend was raised 100%, Net income climbed
to 15.15 billion shillings ($190 million) in the 12 months through
March from 10.5 billion shillings a year earlier and I believe there
was no one else who had this Ball Park Number. Data revenue increased
72.8 percent to account for 18.7% of overall revenue compared to 12.9%
a year earlier. The number of MPESA users rose to 9.48 million from
6.48 million, with person- to-person transactions during the year to
March 2010 being 28.59 billion shillings, the statement said.

These were muscular results every which way I look at them. And I
believe the Forward Growth Curve can be maintained at this run rate
going forward. This Company has not been afraid to bet Big on the New
Trends, I, for one, believe we are hurtling into the Information Age
and that You simply cannot underplay the Forward Data Demand Curve.

Safaricom traded 140.152m shares worth 758.892m and closed unchanged.
The Bourse can react counterintuitively on a Results day as it has
today. Michael Joseph is off on a Whirlwind Investor Tour and I think
he has a powerful story to tell. This is a very focussed Business
without the complexities of being a sprawling One and I think they are
positioned ahead of the Curve. The retracement from 6.00 highs looks
quite overdone. The Permanent Secretary of Information [of whom I am
quite fond actually] made an outstanding Speech where he apparently
squared of the Regulatory risk as well.

TPS Serena closed unchanged at 63.00 and traded a 61.00-65.00 range
and 315,400 shares worth 20.016m. They have outlined a compelling Road
Map for expansion.

Access Kenya eased 0.3% to close at 16.60 and traded a 16.00-16.80
range and 1.180m shares worth 19.697m.

ScanGroup was unchanged at 32.00 and traded 42,100 shares. 35.00 is
the all time high on my Chart.

Kenya Airways closed 3.5733% easier at 54.00 and traded  a 52.50-56.00
range and 132,200 shares.

Nation eased 0.72% to close at 138.00 and traded 7,700 shares.
Standard was unchanged at 40.25 with 3,400 shares traded.

CMC Holdings retreated 0.74% to close at 13.55 and traded 150,000 shares.
CARGEN closed at 48.50 and traded 4,000 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank retreated 5.207% to close at 22.75 and traded a
22.00-24.00 range and 1.786m shares worth 40.653m. It had rallied 30%
in 6 sessions before this Bout of Profit Taking. Equity Bank traded
1.786m shares worth 40.653m.
Barclays Bank retreated 1.66% to close at 58.50 and traded a
58.00-60.00 range and 297,700 shares worth 17.556m.
KCB firmed 1.22% to close at 20.75 and traded 375,400 shares.
COOP Bank firmed 1.64% to close at 12.40 and traded a 12.20-12.40
range and 1.064m shares worth 13.208m. This a new all time Closing
High.
Stanchart firmed 0.45% to close at 224.00 and traded a 221.00-228.00
range and 45,000 shares worth 10.121m.

CFC StanBic rallied a further 8.88% to close at 73.50 and was trading
at 74.00 +9.63% and limit for most of the session. CFC StanBic traded
29,400 shares and has a Serious Demand versus Supply Disequilibrium.
DTB was marked down 5.78% to close at 81.50 and traded 8,100 shares.
HFCK closed 2.27% lower at 21.50 and traded 119,400 shares.
NBK was marked down 2.99% to close at 40.50 and traded 24,100 shares.
NIC was marked down 2.65% to close at 36.75 and traded a 34.00-38.00
range and 248,300 shares worth 9.140m.

Kenya Re was marked down 3.2% to close at 12.00 and traded an
11.80-12.50 range and 461,700 shares.
Jubilee was marked down 4.4711% to close at 171.00 and traded 4,000 shares.
PanAfric traded 500 shares at 60.00 -9.77%.

Centum closed at 19.00 and traded 99,000 shares.

Olympia Capital closed at 8.35.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL was unchanged at 175.00 and traded a 175.00-178.00 range and a
very chunky 1.950m shares worth 341.43m. EABL trades on a Trailing PE
of 19.252. EABL was the 2nd most active Counter at the Bourse in a
high volume day. This Closing Price is a 16 month High.

EABL share price data from www.rich.co.ke
http://j.mp/57wrgL

Mumias Sugar retreated 1.93% to close at 12.70 and traded a
12.10-13.00 range and 867,800 shares worth 11.055m.

Total firmed 1.725% to close at 29.50 and traded a 29.00-30.25 range.
Total reported a Big Turnaround Quarter today.
Kenolkobil eased 0.5% to close at 99.50 and traded 15,000 shares.

KPLC closed 0.5% easier at 199.00 and traded a 199.00-201.00 range and
118.600 shares worth 23.716m.
Kengen eased 0.59% to close at 16.90 and traded 479,500 shares.
Cables was unchanged at 20.00 and traded 65,300 shares.

Bamburi Cement firmed 0.5% to close at 200.00 where 19,900 shares were traded.
ARM eased 0.76% to close at 131.00 and traded 1,200 shares.
Portland traded 600 shares at 113.00 -8.13%.

BAT rallied 3.5% to close at 207.00 and traded 2,500 shares. There is
strong Demand and it is Dividend related. BAT pays more than 300 Basis
Points over 91 Day T Bills.

Boc Kenya traded 200 shares at 137.00 +9.6%.
Carbacid did not trade.
Crown Berger dipped 1.4058% to close at 34.75 and traded 5,100 shares.
Eveready eased 2.22% to close at 4.40 and traded 17,400 shares.
Sameer firmed 2.24% to close at 9.10 and traded 56,500 shares.
Unga closed at 11.90 and traded 5,400 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2010
 
 
 
 
 
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