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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 31st of May 2010
 
Morning
Africa

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rctools/richpod.php

I do thank Sicily Kariuki The Managing Director of the Kenya Tea Board
for a sparkling and fascinating sweep through the Tea World. It was
very accomplished.

It was good to catch up with Alishia again on CNBC This Morning. Thanks.

Macro Thoughts

I think this week Safaricom will head back to test 2010 Highs 6.10.

Home Thoughts

I found a VS Naipaul Book I had not read over the WeekEnd.
The Return of Eva Peron and in it was an Essay about Joseph Conrad.

P. 199

It has taken me a long time to come round to Conrad.

P.205

It was not an easy thing to explain, even to oneself. But in Conrad,
in that very Story of 'Karain', I was later to find my feelings about
the Land exactly caught.

    And Really looking at that Place, landlocked from the Sea and shut
off from the Land by the precipitous slopes of Mountains, it was
difficult to believe in the existence of any Neighbiourhood. It was
still, complete, unknown, and full of a life that went on stealthily
with a troubling effect of Solitude; of a Life that seemed
unaccountably empty of anything that would stir the thought, touch the
Heart, give a hint of the ominous sequence of Days. It appeared to us
a Land without memories, regrets, and hopes; a Land where nothing
could survive the coming of the Night, and where each Sunrise, like a
dazzling act of special Creation, was disconnected from the eve and
the morrow.

Getting out of the Periphery was Naipaul's Raison D'Etre in so many
ways and his Horror at being on the Periphery so intense.

read more


Currency Markets At A Glance
World Currencies

Euro 1.2312
Pound 1.4467
Dollar Index 86.59
Aussie 0.8496
Real 1.8145
Rand 7.556

Fitch Ratings cut Spain's AAA rating by one notch, to AA+, noting high
levels of government debt and dimmed growth prospects, two threats
that also have thrown Greece, Portugal and other euro-zone nations
into crisis.

As North American traders closed out their books Friday afternoon, the
euro had made its biggest monthly drop since January 2009, and the
sixth in a row -- the longest string since spring of 2000. The shared
currency was first introduced in 1999.The shared currency has lost 18%
in those six months.

"The market has been very bearish on the euro all year, but this month
the contagion fears really spiked with the downgrades of peripheral
countries and people really started to pull funds out," said John
Doyle, a currency strategist at Tempus Consulting.

"The U.S. dollar is gaining on the risk aversion play, along with the
Japanese yen. Nobody wants to buy the euro."

read more


World Equity Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Of Finance

Dow Industrials, down 871.98 points in May, or 7.92% to 10136.63.
S&P 500, down 97.28 points in May, or 8.20% to 1089.41.

read more


Dennis Hopper: A Life in Pictures Vanity Fair
Misc.

Dennis Hopper was known primarily as an actor and director, but he was
also an accomplished photographer, not to mention a painter and
sculptor. These pictures by and of the late star, mainly from the
1960s, offer proof of his exceptional eye and enigmatic genius.
Related: Dennis Hopper on the Selma March.

Images from Dennis Hopper: Photographs 1961-1967.

read more



Live Crude Oil chart 74.20 Last
Minerals, Oil & Energy

Oil for July delivery, the most active contract, declined 58 cents, or
0.8%, to settle at $73.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. Oil for August delivery retreated 46 cents, or 0.6%, to
$75.16 a barrel.Prices for the most-active contract have declined 14%
in May, the worst monthly decline since December 2008. May's downdraft
also broke a string of three straight monthly gains for oil. For the
week, however, prices rebounded 5.6%.

read more


Live 24 Hour Continuous Spot Gold Price KITCO 1213.30
Commodities

Gold for August delivery, the most active contract, added 60 cents, or
0.1%, to settle at $1,215 an ounce on the Comex division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange. Prices hit an intraday low of $1,203.80 an
ounce, according to FactSet Research.

Gold gained 3% in May, compared to 6% in April. For the week, bullion
advanced 3.3%.

read more


Copper June 2010 1 Year Chart INO
Commodities

Last Price    3.0970
Contract High    3.548
Contract Low    2.401

Copper for July delivery declined 5 cents, or 1.7%, to $3.10 a pound.
For the month, copper futures lost about 7%. On the week, copper rose
1.3%.

read more



India’s Economy Grows 8.6%, Adding Pressure on Rates Bloomberg
Asia

India’s economic growth accelerated, adding pressure on the central
bank to raise interest rates even as Europe’s sovereign-debt crunch
threatens the global recovery.Gross domestic product rose 8.6 percent
in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier after a revised
6.5 percent gain in the previous quarter, the statistics office said
in a statement in New Delhi today. That matched the median estimate in
a Bloomberg News survey of 22 economists.

India and China, the world’s fastest-growing major economies, are
weighing the risk of Europe’s debt crisis reducing demand in the
market that accounts for a fifth of their exports. For India, the room
to pause on monetary tightening is limited because its benchmark
inflation rate is more than three times that in China.

“Demand-side pressures are building up, which is a worrying sign for
inflation,” said Vishnu Varathan, a regional economist at Forecast
Singapore Pte. “It will be difficult for the Reserve Bank of India to
retract itself from normalizing interest rates.”

India’s central bank said May 19 that it will raise rates only
cautiously even though they are “out of line” with the key
wholesale-price inflation rate, running at 9.59 percent. In
comparison, China’s $4.3 trillion economy expanded 11.9 percent in the
first quarter and consumer prices rose 2.8 percent in April from a
year earlier.

read more


The Sensex 16883 Last Yahoo Finance
Emerging Markets

Sensex China and The Dow 1 Year Chart Yahoo Finance
http://j.mp/9K8rs8

read more


Asia Art Star Zao’s Works Fetch $43 Million in Bidding Frenzy Bloomberg
Asia

The abstract paintings by China-born, Paris-based Zao (1921-) sparked
a frenzy of bidding each time they came on the block, often pushing
prices to several times estimates at Christie’s International’s
auction of modern and contemporary Asian art. Zao’s works fetched a
combined HK$332.3 million ($43 million) during the marathon two-day
sale of about 1,000 lots, part of a larger six-day series comprising
2,000 lots.

“Zao is a blue-chip artist,” said Kate Malin, Christie’s Hong
Kong-based spokeswoman. “His works sell so well.”

Zao Wou-ki's oil on canvas 14-3-59 sold at Christie's International's
auction that started on May 28 2010. Source: Christie's via Bloomberg

read more


Hundreds die in Indian heatwave The Guardian
Food, Climate & Agriculture

Record temperatures in northern India have claimed hundreds of lives
in what is believed to be the hottest summer in the country since
records began in the late 1800s.The death toll is expected to rise
with experts forecasting temperatures approaching 50C (122F) in coming
weeks. More than 100 people are reported to have died in the state of
Gujarat where the mercury topped at 48.5C last week. At least 90 died
in Maharashtra, 35 in Rajasthan and 34 in Bihar.

read more


A new dawn in Africa The Telegraph
Africa

'An African Journey with Jonathan Dimbleby’ is a three-part series
that begins tonight at 9pm on BBC2

. What brought him back? “I saw a chance to make serious money here.
If they can do it in India, why not Kenya?” He abhors Africa’s
“begging-bowl image” and the cronyism and corruption that bedevil his
own country, but he is an optimist. “Of course we need better
leadership but Kenya is full of entrepreneurs – that’s the way
forward.”

However it does illuminate the growing importance of this diverse
continent for the rest of us. Imagine that in the decades ahead,
Nigeria, Congo, Zimbabwe, Kenya and South Africa emerge from their
various predicaments to unlock their huge potential as both producers
and consumers. Africa is strategically located between East and West;
it is rich in resources and talent. Given a fair breeze, it may well
become the continent to reckon with in the 21st century. While never
forgetting the other Africa with which we have long been painfully
familiar, we should wake up to this Africa as well.

Conclusions

If Dimbleby is onto it then its about to go Mainstream.

read more


Zambia to Sell First International Bond of $1 Billion Bloomberg
World Of Finance

Zambia, Africa’s biggest copper producer, plans to sell its first
international bond this year, raising $1 billion for rail and power
projects, Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane said in an interview
with CNBC Africa.The government expects to have its first sovereign
credit rating by the third quarter and will proceed with the bond sale
soon after that, Musokotwane said in Abidjan, the commercial capital
of Ivory Coast.Zambia abandoned a plan to seek a credit rating and
sell a bond abroad in 2008 after the global financial crisis sparked a
sell-off of emerging market assets. The southern African nation joins
countries including Kenya, Ghana and Angola that want to tap
international capital markets to help finance the building of power
plants and railways as economic growth accelerates.

“We have issues with energy,” Musokotwane told CNBC. “There are a
number of roads that have to be rehabilitated.”

The minister said he expects a credit rating of higher than B+, which
was awarded by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings to Angola last
week. B+ “should be the minimum,” Musokotwane said.

The economy will probably expand more than 6 percent this year,
boosted by higher copper prices and a bumper grain crop, Musokotwane
said. Copper prices have more than doubled since the beginning of last
year and reached as high as $6,935 a ton in London today, while the
government expects a 42 percent surge in grain output this year. The
kwacha has dropped 5.7 percent against the dollar since the beginning
of this month and was trading as high as 5,090 per dollar today.

read more


Ambanis’ truce fuels talk over Reliance-MTN FT
Information & Communication Technology

A week ago, the share price of MTN, South Africa’s leading telecoms
company and the biggest mobile operator on the continent, suddenly
shot up 6 per cent, three times the increase in the broader
market.News reports attributed the jump to a change in stock rating on
the company by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. But others wondered
whether it could have had something to do with developments in a
business family dispute far away, in India’s financial capital,
Mumbai.

One day earlier, India’s warring billionaire siblings, Mukesh and Anil
Ambani, had announced a deal in which they decided to do away with
“non-compete” agreements they had signed when they divided their late
father’s empire between them in 2005.

With Mukesh now unlikely to object, could the prospect of a Reliance
and MTN combination, which would create one of the world’s largest
emerging-markets mobile groups with about 230m subscribers, be
resurrected?

Conclusions

“Last time, the deal fell through because of the right of first
refusal,” said a person familiar with that deal.

“Whether MTN wants a deal and Reliance wants to do a deal is a
separate issue but at least that hurdle is not there any longer.”


MTN share Price Data FT Markets Data
http://j.mp/bK35Pi

10,655ZAX Last Price
9,502-13,433 52 Week Range
EPS (TTM)781.74ZAX
P/E (TTM)    13.63

Reliance Communications share price data Bloomberg
http://j.mp/9KMK3c

Price3.184   
52-Wk High (06/11/09)7.390   
52-Wk Low (02/03/10)2.750   
1-Yr Return-50.574
EarningsN.A.   
Price/EarningsN.A.  

read more


Orascom surged 13 percent, the most since Jan. 31, to 6.12 Egyptian pounds Bloomberg
Information & Communication Technology

Orascom Telecom Holding SAE, the biggest mobile phone operator in the
Middle East by users, surged the most in four months as the company
neared the completion of talks to sell assets to MTN Group Ltd.Orascom
surged 13 percent, the most since Jan. 31, to 6.12 Egyptian pounds in
Cairo. The benchmark EGX 30 Index rose 2.8 percent to 6,517.43, the
highest level since May 18. Egypt’s financial markets regulator posted
a statement on the bourse’s website seeking clarification from
Orascom.MTN, Africa’s largest cellular phone operator, said April 28
it was in talks to buy some or all of Orascom’s assets. The final
results of the talks may be known in about a week, Al Mal newspaper
reported today, citing Orascom Telecom Chairman Naguib Sawiris.
Orascom spokeswoman Manal Abdel Hamid confirmed the remarks. The
interview took place May 24, she said by telephone.

MTN’s board plans to meet this week to consider the possible
transaction, three people with knowledge of the matter said May 28.
The Algerian government’s resistance to a sale of the local Orascom
unit, the biggest asset of the deal, had cast doubt on whether MTN
will proceed with its bid.The Algerian government has said it will buy
Djezzy, the Orascom unit, if offered for sale. Orascom said May 27
that it had sent a letter to the government asking to start
negotiations to sell the unit.Orascom was in talks with Emirates
Telecommunications Corp., or Etisalat, to sell a 50 percent stake in
Djezzy, Algerian newspaper Echorouk reported, citing people it didn’t
identify.

Orascom Telecom share Price Data Bloomberg
http://j.mp/aYJb1G

Price6.120       
% Change13.124
52-Wk High (08/09/09)8.030   
52-Wk Low (12/28/09)4.574

Conclusions

UnPick all of that.

read more


Ghana All share Bloomberg Visual +27.961% 2010
Africa

Value7,130.15   
Change59.350    
% Change0.839

Conclusions

13 points away from matching its 2010 High

read more


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg Visual +25.7166% 2010
Africa


Value26,183.21   
Change333.790    
% Change1.291

read more


Egypt EGX30 Index Bloomberg Visual +5.396% 2010
Africa

Value6,543.47   
Change205.959    
% Change3.250

Conclusions

Looks Good Value Again.

read more


South African photographer Zwelethu Mthethwa The New Yorker
Misc.

The South African photographer Zwelethu Mthethwa’s large-format
photographs document the rural-industrial peripheries of South African
cities and the migrant workers who live there. His first monograph,
recently published by Aperture, provides an overview of his work from
the last decade.

Mthethwa’s process is one of exchange and collaboration. In an
interview with Isolde Brielmaier, included in the book, Mthethwa says,
“It was important that I offered them the chance to decide how they
wanted to be photographed, and in this way it became, in a sense,
about giving them back their dignity and authorship.” Aware that he is
often entering a private space, Mthethwa asks for permission before
taking a portrait, and often waits patiently as his subjects, who work
in cane fields and gold, quartz, and coal mines, adjust their
appearance to their liking—washing or changing clothes, straightening
a room. Mthethwa’s subjects appear to know their role in the image;
there is a sense of agreement in his vision.

From the series “Empty Beds,” 2002.

read more


Golf in the (Wild) Kingdom WSJ
Misc.

The unfenced nine-hole course at Skukuza sits smack in the middle of
the 7,300-square-mile Kruger National Park, home to the Big Five
(lions, elephants, leopards, rhinoceroses and Cape buffaloes) plus
innumerable other alarming creatures, such as warthogs and poisonous
puff adders. Built in the early 1970s to give permanent residents of
the small Skukuza restcamp community a little R&R, the course soon
proved popular with safari-going park visitors eager to spice up their
golf games.

The first tee abuts Lake Panic, which teems with crocodiles and
hippopotamuses. "It's funny, but the crocodiles like to lounge near
the tee box and a lot of golfers don't see them until after they tee
off. Only a meter or two away sometimes. The golfers about have a
heart attack when they find out," Ms. de Bruto said by telephone.

read more


World Bank Approves $330 Million Loan to Kenya for Electricity Bloomberg
Minerals, Oil & Energy


The World Bank approved a $300 million loan to Kenya to expand access
to electricity in the East African nation, the Washington-based lender
said in an e- mailed statement today.

read more


Barclays Bank reports 1st Quarter 2010 -9.09% Results and share price data
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:          59.00
Total Shares Issued:          1,357,884,032
Market Capitalization:        80,115M
EPS:            4.50
PE:                13.111

Operating expenses climbed 14 percent to 4 billion shillings “due to
one-off staff-related costs,” Barclays said, without elaborating.

Conclusions

Barclays reported 1.00 versus 1.10 in the 1st Quarter 2009 and is out
of Sync with its Peers.

read more


Nairobi All Share Index Bloomberg Visual +29.195%
N.S.E General

Value75.14   
Change0.460    
% Change0.616

read more


Safaricom share price data www.rich.co.ke
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:          5.50
Total Shares Issued:          40,000,000,000
Market Capitalization:        220,000M
EPS:            0.38
PE:                14.474

Swot Analysis
Revenue 83.950b versus 70.479b = +19.1%
Operating Profit 22.61b versus 16.175b = +39.8%
Profit after Tax 15.148b versus 10.536b = +43.6%
Dividend increased +100%
EPS 0.38 versus 0.27 = +44.2%
Sequential Half Year versus Half Year 0.212 versus 0.168 +26.19%
Subscriber Numbers +18.2% at 15.79m
Data Revenue as a % of Total Revenue increased to 18.7% from 12.9%
MPESA 9.48m Registered Users
97.7% Increase in Mobile and Fixed Data Revenue

read more


Kenya tourism arrivals up 16 pct Jan-April 2010 Reuters
Tourism, Travel & Transport

The number of tourists visiting Kenya in the first four months of 2010
rose to 336,179 from 289,518, led by arrivals from Britain, the United
States and Italy, the Kenya Tourist Board (KTB) said on Monday.

Tourism, the third largest foreign exchange earner after horticulture
and tea exports, was one of the sectors hardest hit by the country's
bloody post-election crisis in early 2008 and the global economic
slowdown.

"We could have had more had the Iceland volcano not erupted," Michael
Riungu, from the KTB's research and development department, told a
news conference.

read more


3G Services and MNP to Drive Kenyan Telecom Sector Cellular News
Information & Communication Technology

Kenya is on the verge of becoming one of the fastest growing
Internet/broadband markets in the African continent reports RNCOS.
Their report expects that the number of mobile subscribers in Kenya
will grow at a CAGR of over 15% between 2010 and 2013 on its rapidly
improving mobile infrastructure and intensifying competition among
mobile operators.

In addition, the number of Internet and broadband subscribers in Kenya
will grow at a CAGR of over 24% and 130% respectively between 2010 and
2013.

The report also finds that all the technology-related equipments are
readily available in the country due to the presence of distribution
centers of various technology and hardware manufacturers. Moreover,
the number of graduates with ICT training is expected to double by the
end of this decade.

Conclusions

Its a Parabolic Growth Curve.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today

The NSE20 rebounded 20.7 points to close at 4241.81.
The NASI closed 0.47 points better at 92.33.
Market Cap was 1.076306 Trillion versus 1.070875 Trillion.
Equity Turnover was just 142.561m versus 782.89m last time.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Kakuzi traded 6,400 shares all at 74.00 +2.07%. Kakuzi trades on a PE of 4.267.
Sasini Tea rose 3.06% to close at 13.45 and traded 8,600 shares.
Sasini Tea trades on a Trailing PE of 5.831.
Rea Vipingo did not trade.

The Agriculturals have drifted back a little on low volumes of late
but prices remain very inexpensive.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

SAFARICOM


shares volume     2.068m
total turnover     11,334,445
avg price     5.56 Closing Price 5.55 +0.91%
high price     5.60
low price     5.40
last price     5.55

Conclusions

Safaricom traded just over 2m shares compared to 250m in just 2
sessions last week. The Results will trigger Upgrades from Everyone
and I expect a move to 6.10 12 month Highs.

Access Kenya improved 1.754% to close at 17.40. Access traded a
17.00-17.70 range and Buyers have begun to push back a little of late.

ScanGroup rallied 1.9% to close at 33.00 and was trading at 33.50
+3.08% into the close. Scangroup traded 44,500 shares and looks set to
revisit its 35.00 all time high Print.

Kenya Airways firmed 0.91% to close at 55.50 and was trading 56.50
+2.73% session highs into the close. Kenya Airways is slated to
release Full Year Results soon. Kenya Airways traded 29,900 shares.

Nation closed 0.71% better at 141.00 and traded 13,400 shares.
Standard Group traded 600 shares at 40.50 -0.61%.

CMC Holdings eased 0.38% to close at 13.00 on low volume of just 11,100 shares.
CARGEN did not trade.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Barclays Bank reported 1st Quarter 2010 results 9.09% behind the same
period in 2009. Barclays is citing Operating expenses as having
climbed 14% to 4 billion shillings “due to one-off staff-related
costs” as having crimped Profits. Barclays' 1st Quarter is some way
away from its Peers. KCB was +10%, COOP Equity and Stanchart were at
+30%. Barclays was unchanged at 59.00 and traded a 59.00-60.00 range
and 714,600 shares worth 42.184m.
Equity Bank rallied back 5.88% to close at 22.50 and was trading 23.00
+8.24% session highs into the close. Equity Bank traded 590,600 shares
worth 13.375m.
COOP Bank firmed 1.2% to close at 12.65 a new all time Closing High.
COOP Bank traded a 12.50-13.00 range and 1.167m shares worth 14.819m.
Stanchart was marked down 3.11% to close at 218.00 on low volume of
just 5,100 shares.
KCB eased back 2.41% to close at 20.25 and traded 162,900 shares.

CFC StanBic firmed 0.74% to close at 68.00 and traded a 70.00 high and
15,200 shares.
DTB traded 10,000 shares all at 85.00 -3.95%.
HFCK was unchanged at 20.50 and traded 35,000 shares.
NBK eased 1.22% to close at 40.25 and traded 21,900 shares.
NIC rose 0.68% to close at 36.75 and traded 4,000 shares.

Kenya Re eased 0.42% to close at 11.90 and traded 205,900 shares.
Jubilee bounced 1.17% to close at 173.00 and traded 23,000 shares.
PanAfric traded 1,300 shares at 60.00 and unchanged.

Centum rallied 2.18% to close at 18.70 and traded an 18.00-19.00 range
and 142,300 shares.

Olympia Capital was unchanged at 8.30.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL was upgraded by Kestrel to Buy on the basis of more Hectolitres
of Beer Throughput via the Serengeti Tanzania Acquisition. EABL firmed
0.57% to close at 177.00 and traded a 179.00 session high. EABL traded
only 6,800 shares and has Demand which is 30x Multiple of what was
traded.

Mumias Sugar closed 1.99% firmer at 12.80 and traded a 12.65-12.95
range and 343,800 shares.

KENOLKOBIL firmed 0.5% to close at 100.00 and traded 103,300 shares
worth 10.329m.
Total closed 0.85% better at 29.50 and traded 10,000 shares.

Kengen edged 5 cents better to close at 16.95 and traded a 16.80-17.10
range and 136,000 shares. It is very well supported now and points
towards 20.00.
KPLC closed 0.5% better at 200.00 and traded 10,100 shares.
Cables improved 0.52% to close at 19.35 and traded 3,200 shares.

Bamburi traded 4,500 shares at an unchanged 200.00.
ARM eased a shilling to close at 127.00 and traded a 125.00-131.00
range and 20,500 shares.
Portland did not trade.

BAT did not trade.
BOC Kenya was unchanged at 135.00 on 500 shares.
Carbacid eased 0.64% to close at 155.00 and traded 2,900 shares.
Crown Berger closed -2.94% at 33.00 and traded 4,200 shares.
Eveready closed at 4.35 and traded 139,600 shares.
Sameer closed at 8.20 +0.61% and traded 14,000 shares.
Unga closed higher at 11.85 and traded 36,200 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2010
 
 
 
 
 
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